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1,600
1,400 While the company’s overall value market share stands at ~10% among the top five
1,200 listed paint companies, its share in premium category is double its overall market
1,000 share. In a bid to expand its portfolio, it also introduced waterproofing products
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
recently. Earlier, Akzo’s decorative portfolio coverage stood at ~60% of the industry’s
product range, which has now expanded to ~85%.
Industrial paints – leveraging global technology; improving efficiency:
Industrial paints contribute ~35% to Akzo’s total revenues. In this segment, Akzo
expects double-digit volume growth in auto refinish coatings, specialty coatings and
powder coatings over the long term. Globally, AkzoNobel N.V. is a strong leader in
several industrial paint segments due to its technology prowess. Management plants
to leverage these technologies for applications in India as well. In a bid to improve
overall profitability, the company aims to improve operational efficiency in certain
low-performing industrial paint segments.
Market Cap Rs81bn/US$1.2bn Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Research Analysts: Reuters/Bloomberg AKZO.BO/AKZO IN Net Revenue (Rs mn) 27,193 29,843 33,242 36,971
Shares Outstanding (mn) 45.5 Net Profit (Rs mn) 2,052 2,012 2,434 2,877
Nimit Shah
nimit.shah@icicisecurities.com 52-week Range (Rs) 1983/1493 Dil. EPS (Rs) 43.5 43.1 52.1 61.6
+91 22 6637 7588 Free Float (%) 27.0 % Chg YoY (11.8) (1.0) 21.0 18.2
Manoj Menon FII (%) 1.4 P/E (x) 40.6 41.0 33.9 28.7
manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7209 Daily Volume (US$'000) 293 CEPS (Rs) 56.0 56.6 67.4 78.5
Rahil Jasani, CFA Absolute Return 3m (%) 7.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 27.4 24.9 20.4 17.0
rahil.jasani@icicisecurities.com Absolute Return 12m (%) 1.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4
+91 22 2277 7650
Sensex Return 3m (%) 5.4 RoCE (%) 17.8 15.2 17.1 18.5
Sensex Return 12m (%) 18.0 RoE (%) 17.7 15.1 17.0 18.5
Reduced focus on low-value products: Akzo however does not intend to chase
volumes by growing share of low-value, low-margin products such as putty and
distemper, in line with its strategy to achieve profitable volume growth. Hence, we
expect Akzo to continue to record lower volume growth compared to other top
listed paint companies under our coverage. We build 7-8% volume growth CAGR
over FY18-FY21E in our estimates (vs double-digit volume growth for other paint
companies).
Focused on products over services: Unlike its peers, Akzo is not keen on
improving service aspect through end-to-end painting solutions and home
consultancy services. It will continue to focus on expanding its product portfolio by
adding new premium and mass products. However, the company does provide
tools (such as Dulux Colour Play paint tester) for do-it-yourself (DIY) painting.
Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs1,720: We maintain our estimates and
expect consolidated sales and earnings CAGRs of 10.8% and 12.3% respectively
over FY18-FY21E. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs1,720 based on a
triangulated average of P/E (Rs1,877 at 33x Sep’20E EPS), DCF (Rs1,630:
assuming WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth of 4%) and MCap/Sales (Rs1,654:
2.2x Sep’20E sales).
Key managerial changes
Position Earlier Resignation Current Appointment
effective effective
Chairman Mr. Nihal Kaviratne CBE 14-Aug’17 Mr. Amit Jain 15-Aug’17
Managing Mr. Jayakumar 12-Sep’18 Mr. Rajiv Rajgopal 1-Nov’18
Director Krishnaswamy
CFO Mr. Pradip Menon 14-Sep’18 Mr. Lakshay 1-Feb’19
Kataria
2
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Sales (Rs mn) Sales Growth (RHS) Gross Margin EBITDA Margin
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Q3FY19
*Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
3
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
25
Mean: 33.9
20 +1x S.D: 40.0
15 -1x S.D: 27.8
10
Jul-13
Jul-16
Apr-12
Sep-12
Dec-13
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17
Apr-18
Sep-18
Feb-13
May-14
Feb-16
Mar-19
Source: Company data, I-Sec research
MCap/Sales-based valuation
The stock has traded at 2.6x 1-year forward MCap/Sales multiple over the past five
years. With focus on driving profitable volume growth that may trend lower than
industry growth rate, we believe Akzo will trade slightly lower than its historical
Cap/Sales multiple.
Chart 4: MCap/Sales multiple
2.0
1.5
Mean: 2.6
1.0 +1x S.D: 2.9
0.5 -1x S.D: 2.2
0.0
Jul-10
Jul-13
Sep-09
Feb-10
Dec-10
Nov-11
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17
Oct-18
Mar-19
Apr-09
Apr-12
Apr-15
May-11
May-18
4
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
DCF-based valuation
Valuing Akzo on the DCF methodology involves three stages:
Stage 1 (FY18-FY21): During this period, we expect the company to grow its
revenue and PAT at CAGRs at 11% and 12% respectively. We expect RoE to
increase from 17.7% in FY18 to 18.5% in FY21.
Stage 2 (FY21-FY30): During this period, we expect the company to post revenue
and PAT CAGRs of 12% each.
Stage 3 (FY30 onwards): We assume a perpetual growth rate of 4% for the
period.
To arrive at the WACC of 11.0%, we have assumed cost of equity at 11.0%. Based on
these assumptions, we arrive at a DCF-based valuation of Rs1,630/share for Akzo.
5
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
Financial summary
Table 4: Profit & Loss statement Table 7: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Revenues 27,193 29,843 33,242 36,971 Operating Cashflow 2,614 2,645 3,146 3,668
Operating Expenses 24,207 26,579 29,293 32,310 Working Capital Changes 274 (185) (88) (374)
EBITDA 2,986 3,264 3,949 4,661 Capital Commitments (816) (901) (870) (840)
% margins 11.0% 10.9% 11.9% 12.6% Free Cashflow 2,072 1,559 2,188 2,455
Depreciation & Amortisation 582 632 712 791 Cashflow from Investing
Gross Interest 35 39 39 39 Activities (2,377) - - -
Other Income 438 406 437 471 Issue of Share Capital 2,019 0 - (0)
Recurring PBT 2,807 3,000 3,636 4,302 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings - - - -
Less: Taxes 775 987 1,201 1,425 Dividend paid (1,238) (1,121) (1,401) (1,401)
Less: Minority Interest - - - - Change in Deferred Tax
Net Income (Reported) 2,032 2,012 2,434 2,877 Liability 44 - - -
Extraordinaries (Net) (20) - - - Chg. in Cash & Bank
Recurring Net Income 2,052 2,012 2,434 2,877 balances 520 438 787 1,054
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research
6
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities
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