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Equity Research INDIA

March 19, 2019


BSE Sensex: 38363
Akzo Nobel India HOLD
ICICI Securities Limited Maintained
is the author and
distributor of this report
Focused on distribution and portfolio expansion Rs1,769
We recently met the management of Akzo Nobel India (Akzo) for a business
Company update update. While the company’s brand strength among top paint companies remains
unquestionable, Akzo is now focused on expanding its distribution network and
Paints footprint of tinting machines. From ~1,000 additions a year, the company has
started adding 2,000 tinting machines annually. While it has recently launched
Target price Rs1,720 waterproofing products (under the brand Aquatech) in line with other paint
companies, it continues to maintain low-key focus on low-value products such as
putty and distemper. Management plans to leverage global technology and
Shareholding pattern
Jun Sep Dec improve efficiency in industrial paint segments to improve overall profitability. We
‘18 ‘18 ‘18
maintain our estimates and expect consolidated sales and earnings CAGRs of
Promoters 73.0 74.8 74.8
Institutional 10.8% and 12.3% respectively over FY18-FY21E. Maintain HOLD with a target price
investors 10.5 9.2 9.4
MFs and UTI 4.9 3.5 3.6
of Rs1,720. At CMP, Akzo trades at 31.1x Sep’20E EPS, lowest among its peers.
Banks, FI’s,
Insurance co 4.1 4.2 4.4  Focused on distribution and tinting machine additions: While the strength of
FIIs 1.5 1.5 1.4 Akzo’s brand is unquestionable and compares well with other top paint companies, it
Others 16.5 16.1 15.9
Source: BSE
lags in terms of distribution network. Company’s wholesale model has witnessed
good traction and its distribution network has increased from 9,000 dealers and
distributors in FY12 to ~18,000 currently. Additionally, it has significantly increased
Price chart
2,200
its focus on improving its footprint of tinting machines – from ~1,000 additions a year,
the company has started adding ~2,000 tinting machines annually.
2,000
1,800  Strong portfolio expansion: Akzo will focus on recouping its market share in
premium products by targeting growth at 1.5x GDP for its premium product portfolio.
(Rs)

1,600
1,400 While the company’s overall value market share stands at ~10% among the top five
1,200 listed paint companies, its share in premium category is double its overall market
1,000 share. In a bid to expand its portfolio, it also introduced waterproofing products
Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18
Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

recently. Earlier, Akzo’s decorative portfolio coverage stood at ~60% of the industry’s
product range, which has now expanded to ~85%.
 Industrial paints – leveraging global technology; improving efficiency:
Industrial paints contribute ~35% to Akzo’s total revenues. In this segment, Akzo
expects double-digit volume growth in auto refinish coatings, specialty coatings and
powder coatings over the long term. Globally, AkzoNobel N.V. is a strong leader in
several industrial paint segments due to its technology prowess. Management plants
to leverage these technologies for applications in India as well. In a bid to improve
overall profitability, the company aims to improve operational efficiency in certain
low-performing industrial paint segments.
Market Cap Rs81bn/US$1.2bn Year to March FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Research Analysts: Reuters/Bloomberg AKZO.BO/AKZO IN Net Revenue (Rs mn) 27,193 29,843 33,242 36,971
Shares Outstanding (mn) 45.5 Net Profit (Rs mn) 2,052 2,012 2,434 2,877
Nimit Shah
nimit.shah@icicisecurities.com 52-week Range (Rs) 1983/1493 Dil. EPS (Rs) 43.5 43.1 52.1 61.6
+91 22 6637 7588 Free Float (%) 27.0 % Chg YoY (11.8) (1.0) 21.0 18.2
Manoj Menon FII (%) 1.4 P/E (x) 40.6 41.0 33.9 28.7
manoj.menon@icicisecurities.com
+91 22 6637 7209 Daily Volume (US$'000) 293 CEPS (Rs) 56.0 56.6 67.4 78.5
Rahil Jasani, CFA Absolute Return 3m (%) 7.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 27.4 24.9 20.4 17.0
rahil.jasani@icicisecurities.com Absolute Return 12m (%) 1.0 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4
+91 22 2277 7650
Sensex Return 3m (%) 5.4 RoCE (%) 17.8 15.2 17.1 18.5
Sensex Return 12m (%) 18.0 RoE (%) 17.7 15.1 17.0 18.5

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report


Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

 Reduced focus on low-value products: Akzo however does not intend to chase
volumes by growing share of low-value, low-margin products such as putty and
distemper, in line with its strategy to achieve profitable volume growth. Hence, we
expect Akzo to continue to record lower volume growth compared to other top
listed paint companies under our coverage. We build 7-8% volume growth CAGR
over FY18-FY21E in our estimates (vs double-digit volume growth for other paint
companies).
 Focused on products over services: Unlike its peers, Akzo is not keen on
improving service aspect through end-to-end painting solutions and home
consultancy services. It will continue to focus on expanding its product portfolio by
adding new premium and mass products. However, the company does provide
tools (such as Dulux Colour Play paint tester) for do-it-yourself (DIY) painting.
 Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs1,720: We maintain our estimates and
expect consolidated sales and earnings CAGRs of 10.8% and 12.3% respectively
over FY18-FY21E. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Rs1,720 based on a
triangulated average of P/E (Rs1,877 at 33x Sep’20E EPS), DCF (Rs1,630:
assuming WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth of 4%) and MCap/Sales (Rs1,654:
2.2x Sep’20E sales).
 Key managerial changes
Position Earlier Resignation Current Appointment
effective effective
Chairman Mr. Nihal Kaviratne CBE 14-Aug’17 Mr. Amit Jain 15-Aug’17
Managing Mr. Jayakumar 12-Sep’18 Mr. Rajiv Rajgopal 1-Nov’18
Director Krishnaswamy
CFO Mr. Pradip Menon 14-Sep’18 Mr. Lakshay 1-Feb’19
Kataria

2
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

Key operational highlights


Chart 1: Net sales growth performance Chart 2: Gross margin and EBITDA margin

Sales (Rs mn) Sales Growth (RHS) Gross Margin EBITDA Margin

8,000 12.0% 50.0%


7,800 45.0%
7,600 10.0% 40.0%
7,400 35.0%
7,200 8.0%
30.0%
7,000
6.0% 25.0%
6,800
6,600 20.0%
4.0% 15.0%
6,400
6,200 2.0% 10.0%
6,000 5.0%
5,800 0.0% 0.0%
Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19

Q3FY17

Q4FY17

Q1FY18

Q2FY18

Q3FY18

Q4FY18

Q1FY19

Q2FY19

Q3FY19
*Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 1: Raw material price trend (monthly average)


Titanium dioxide (Rs/kg) Crude oil (US$/bbl) VAM (US$/te)
Feb-18 240.8 62.1 1,258.0
Mar-18 247.2 62.6 1,321.0
Apr-18 253.3 66.0 1,286.0
May-18 256.0 69.9 1,389.0
Jun-18 263.5 66.9 1,392.0
Jul-18 264.5 70.9 1,318.0
Aug-18 263.0 67.8 1,197.0
Sep-18 263.0 69.9 1,123.0
Oct-18 266.4 70.8 1,163.0
Nov-18 277.1 57.2 1,167.0
Dec-18 276.6 49.2 1,024.0
Jan-19 274.0 51.0 1,001.0
Feb-19 274.0 54.9 1,039.0
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 2: Peer valuation


P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) CAGR% FY18-21E
Long
Mcp
term avg.
CMP (US$ FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY19E FY20E FY21E Sales EBITDA PAT
1yr fwd P/E
mn)
Asian Paints 1,454 20,219 62.6 51.1 42.8 38.8 31.6 26.6 25.2 27.4 28.4 15.4 17.7 18.3 47.0
Berger 311 4,384 58.3 46.6 38.1 34.2 27.1 22.4 22.2 24.3 25.4 17.4 18.7 19.9 44.8
Kansai* 460 3,595 49.6 39.7 32.4 31.6 25.4 20.8 15.2 17.2 18.7 15.8 14.5 14.0 37.9
Akzo Nobel* 1,769 1,168 41.0 33.9 28.7 24.9 20.4 17.0 15.1 17.0 18.5 10.8 16.0 12.3 33.9
Pidilite 1,176 8,664 63.2 51.3 42.0 41.2 33.6 27.9 24.5 25.6 26.3 16.6 15.9 13.9 40.0
*Standalone; Source: I-Sec research

3
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

Valuations and risks


We value the stock at a triangulated average of P/E (Rs1,877 at 33x Sep’20E EPS),
DCF (Rs1,630: assuming WACC of 11.0% and terminal growth of 4%) and
MCap/Sales (Rs1,654: 2.2x Sep’20E sales), deriving a target price of Rs1,720 (implied
30.2x Sep’20E EPS). Maintain HOLD.

P/E based valuation


The stock has traded at 33.9x 1-year forward earnings over the past five years. With
focus on premium products along with margin expansion, we expect it to continue to
trade near its 5-year average 1-year forward multiple.

Chart 3: P/E multiple

50 Akzo P/E -1 Std Dev. Mean +1 Std Dev.


45
40
35
30
(x)

25
Mean: 33.9
20 +1x S.D: 40.0
15 -1x S.D: 27.8

10
Jul-13

Jul-16
Apr-12

Sep-12

Dec-13

Nov-14

Apr-15

Sep-15

Jan-17

Jun-17

Nov-17

Apr-18

Sep-18
Feb-13

May-14

Feb-16

Mar-19
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

MCap/Sales-based valuation
The stock has traded at 2.6x 1-year forward MCap/Sales multiple over the past five
years. With focus on driving profitable volume growth that may trend lower than
industry growth rate, we believe Akzo will trade slightly lower than its historical
Cap/Sales multiple.
Chart 4: MCap/Sales multiple

Akzo Mcap/Sales -1 Std Dev. Mean +1 Std Dev.


4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
(x)

2.0
1.5
Mean: 2.6
1.0 +1x S.D: 2.9
0.5 -1x S.D: 2.2
0.0
Jul-10

Jul-13
Sep-09
Feb-10

Dec-10

Nov-11

Sep-12
Feb-13

Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14

Sep-15
Mar-16
Aug-16
Jan-17
Jun-17
Nov-17

Oct-18
Mar-19
Apr-09

Apr-12

Apr-15
May-11

May-18

Source: Company data, I-Sec research

4
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

DCF-based valuation
Valuing Akzo on the DCF methodology involves three stages:

 Stage 1 (FY18-FY21): During this period, we expect the company to grow its
revenue and PAT at CAGRs at 11% and 12% respectively. We expect RoE to
increase from 17.7% in FY18 to 18.5% in FY21.
 Stage 2 (FY21-FY30): During this period, we expect the company to post revenue
and PAT CAGRs of 12% each.
 Stage 3 (FY30 onwards): We assume a perpetual growth rate of 4% for the
period.
To arrive at the WACC of 11.0%, we have assumed cost of equity at 11.0%. Based on
these assumptions, we arrive at a DCF-based valuation of Rs1,630/share for Akzo.

Chart 5: Cashflow performance Table 3: DCF calculations

Free cashflow to the firm RoE (RHS) Rs mn unless otherwise stated


7,000 25% PV of FCF for forecasting period (FY21 – FY30) 29,100
6,000
Terminal value 39,232
5,000 20%
4,000 Fair value of investments 5,733
15%
3,000
(Rs mn)

Enterprise value 74,065


2,000
10%
1,000 Less: net debt/ (cash) at March 31, 2020 -2,070
0 5%
(1,000) Implied equity value 76,136

(2,000) 0% Fully diluted equity shares (mn) 47


FY19E
FY20E
FY21E
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18

Implied equity value (Rs/share) 1,630

Source: Company, I-Sec research

5
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

Financial summary
Table 4: Profit & Loss statement Table 7: Cashflow statement
(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Rs mn, year ending March 31)
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Revenues 27,193 29,843 33,242 36,971 Operating Cashflow 2,614 2,645 3,146 3,668
Operating Expenses 24,207 26,579 29,293 32,310 Working Capital Changes 274 (185) (88) (374)
EBITDA 2,986 3,264 3,949 4,661 Capital Commitments (816) (901) (870) (840)
% margins 11.0% 10.9% 11.9% 12.6% Free Cashflow 2,072 1,559 2,188 2,455
Depreciation & Amortisation 582 632 712 791 Cashflow from Investing
Gross Interest 35 39 39 39 Activities (2,377) - - -
Other Income 438 406 437 471 Issue of Share Capital 2,019 0 - (0)
Recurring PBT 2,807 3,000 3,636 4,302 Inc (Dec) in Borrowings - - - -
Less: Taxes 775 987 1,201 1,425 Dividend paid (1,238) (1,121) (1,401) (1,401)
Less: Minority Interest - - - - Change in Deferred Tax
Net Income (Reported) 2,032 2,012 2,434 2,877 Liability 44 - - -
Extraordinaries (Net) (20) - - - Chg. in Cash & Bank
Recurring Net Income 2,052 2,012 2,434 2,877 balances 520 438 787 1,054
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Source: Company data, I-Sec research

Table 5: Balance sheet Table 8: Key ratios


(Rs mn, year ending March 31) (Year ending March 31)
FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Assets
Per Share Data (Rs)
Total Current Assets 10,936 12,611 14,696 17,173
EPS 43.5 43.1 52.1 61.6
of which cash & cash eqv. 874 1,312 2,099 3,153
Cash EPS 56.0 56.6 67.4 78.5
Total Current Liabilities &
Dividend per share (DPS) 22.0 20.0 25.0 25.0
Provisions 9,330 10,382 11,592 12,643
Book Value per share (BV) 276.4 295.5 317.6 349.3
Net Current Assets 1,606 2,229 3,103 4,531
Investments 5,733 5,733 5,733 5,733
Growth (%)
Net Fixed Assets 5,389 5,658 5,816 5,865
Net Sales 5.7 9.7 11.4 11.2
Capital Work-in-Progress 268 268 268 268
EBITDA (9.1) 9.3 21.0 18.0
Goodwill - - - -
PAT (11.8) (1.0) 21.0 18.2
Total Assets 12,996 13,887 14,921 16,397
Cash EPS (8.2) 1.2 19.0 16.6
Liabilities
Valuation Ratios (x)
Borrowings 29 29 29 29
P/E 40.6 41.0 33.9 28.7
Deferred Tax Liability 58 58 58 58
P/CEPS 31.6 31.2 26.3 22.5
Minority Interest - - - -
P/BV 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.1
Equity Share Capital 467 467 467 467
EV / EBITDA 27.4 24.9 20.4 17.0
Face Value per share (Rs) 10 10 10 10
EV / Sales 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1
Reserves & Surplus* 12,442 13,333 14,367 15,843
Less: Misc. Exp. n.w.o. - - - -
Operating Ratios
Net Worth 12,909 13,800 14,834 16,310
Raw Material / Sales (%) 56.1 58.1 57.3 56.7
Total Liabilities 12,996 13,887 14,921 16,397
Employee cost / Sales (%) 10.3 9.5 9.4 9.3
Source: Company data, I-Sec research SG&A / Sales (%) 22.6 21.5 21.5 21.4
Other Income / PBT (%) 15.6 13.5 12.0 10.9
Table 6: Quarterly trends Effective Tax Rate (%) 27.6 32.9 33.0 33.1
Working Capital (days) 9.9 11.3 11.1 13.7
(Rs mn, year ending March 31)
Inventory Turnover (days) 46.4 47.4 47.4 47.5
Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Receivables (days) 52.3 54.5 54.5 54.5
Net revenues 7,004 7,157 7,138 7,833 Payables (days) 155.8 158.4 158.4 158.4
% growth (YoY) 10.3 10.4 8.4 10.0 Net D/E Ratio (x) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 699 725 652 1,012
Margin (%) 10.0 10.1 9.1 12.9 Profitability Ratios (%)
Other income 128 91 81 98 Net Income Margins 7.5 6.7 7.3 7.8
Extraordinaries (Net) - - 5 2 RoACE 17.8 15.2 17.1 18.5
Net profit 462 435 368 604 RoAE 17.7 15.1 17.0 18.5
Source: Company data, I-Sec research Dividend Payout 50.5 46.4 48.0 40.6
Dividend Yield 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.4
EBITDA Margins 11.0 10.9 11.9 12.6
Source: Company data, I-Sec research

6
Akzo Nobel India, March 19, 2019 ICICI Securities

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New I-Sec investment ratings (all ratings based on absolute return; All ratings and target price refers to 12-month performance horizon, unless mentioned otherwise)
BUY: >15% return; ADD: 5% to 15% return; HOLD: Negative 5% to Positive 5% return; REDUCE: Negative 5% to Negative 15% return; SELL: < negative 15% return

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