C02 BUAD555 DSB BTCN ChienTM EN

INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM
Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn
Subject: BUAD555 Decision Science and Statistic for Managers

Class: GaMBA01.C02
Student: Truong Minh Chien, ID # 113408
Final Individual Assessment

TOPIC: APPLIED STATISTIC FOR BUSINESS AND
ORGANIZATION
INTRODUCTION
1 – Background :
Statistics in the business application is the performance of statistics probability theory to the
realistic business environment in order to serve purposes such as collection - data processing,
sample surveys, studies the relationship between phenomena, predict and help the CEO decision-
making within the specific business scene. As we all know in statistics business, it includes
descriptive statistics and statistical inference. Actually, in limited of this article, I only apply
statistical inference to solve problems specific topic request.
2 - Purpose
Applying statistical theory to solve exercises 2.2, 5.16 and 8.3 of the textbook. Since then draw the
lessons of experience and practical help for the operation of Son Trang Ly Limited Company.
3 - Progress
This report is realized bases upon below steps :
i. Understand and gather information
ii. Calculated and solve the Regression Equation
iii. Applied Excel and SPSS version 17
iv. Applied the Estimation Theory in Statistic
v. Draw the plots
1/ 10
APPLIED STATISTIC AND ESTIMATION THEORY FOR ORGANIZATION
Execercise 2.2 The below information are data on the age of the patients visit the hospital A on
08/20/2008
32 45 53 60 79 73
73 53 61 48 51 49
62 72 37 70 38 66
52 33 78 45 65 47
64 47 61 75 57 64
Request :
a. Stem & Leaf display representing
b. Construct table of frequency distribution and cumulative percentage distribution
c. Draw the frequency plot
d. Comments on the age distribution of patients above
Solve
a. Stem & Leaf display
Frequency Stem & Leaf
2.0 3. 23
2.0 3. 78
6.0 4. 557789
4.0 5. 1233
1.0 5. 7
6.0 6. 011244
2.0 6. 56
4.0 7. 0233
3.0 7. 589
Width of Stem : 10.00
Each Leaf includes : 1 case(s).
b. Table of frequency and cumulative frequency
Table 1 Descriptive frequency, percentage table
Age-grade Frequency Percentage (%) Cumulative Cumulative Percentage (%)
frequency
30-35 2 6.67 2 6.67
35-40 2 6.67 4 13.33
40-45 0 0 4 13.33
45-50 6 20 10 33.33
50-55 4 13.33 14 46.67
55-60 1 3.33 15 50
60-65 6 20 21 70
65-70 4 6.67 23 76.67
70-75 2 13.33 27 90
75-80 3 10 30 100
Total 30 100 / /
2/ 10
c. Histogram, and other frequency plots
d. Comments on the age distribution of patients

From the above frequency graph (Frequency Histogram), we easily see the majority of patients visit
the hospital A on 20/8/2008 are greater than 45 years of age and under 65 years old. The amount of
patients under 40 years old and is at least 65 years of patient accounting for a small amount.
Particularly of patients from 45 to 50 years old and the patients age 60 to 65 increased sharply
higher. It shows the hospital A on health care for middle-aged or older and retired people or those
who were too old working age. Basing oneself on above frequency histogram, we can imagine more
value-added services for Hospital A such as life insurance for elderly people or drugs on specific
diseases of the elderly such as heart tonic, hypertension, diabetes doses drugs to increase market
power or other drugs increases the digestibility of etc ...
3/ 10
Exercise 5.16 The consumer rate of a local product at district A is 60%. After the marketing
campaign believed that the rate has increased. To test this idea, we randomly interviewed 400
people and has 250 consumers found that product category. With the 0.05 significant make
meaningful conclusions about the comments above.
Solve
The rate of customer consumption of products before advertising campaign is: p0 = 60% = 0.6
The rate of customer consumption of products after the advertising campaign : p
Set theory: H0 : p = p0 = 0.6
H1 : p ˃ p0
After implementation of advertising campaigns, the amount consumers are: p* = 250/400 = 0.625
= 62.5%
From above equation :
In other hand :
Comments : Because that we accept the theory H0: p = p0 = 0.6, it means after the
advertising campaign that the percentage of customers used the product is less than or equal before
advertising campaign. Thus, the advertising campaign is a failure in district A because after doing
the advertisng campaign that the rate of customer consumption would not rise as expected and tends
to decrease (significant at 5%).
Exercise 8.3 The following data is the number of readers of a local newspaper (thousand person):
Year : 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Readers : 53 65 74 85 92 105 120 128 144 158 179 195
Made a Least-Squares Trend Function and forecasts the total readers in 2008 and 2009 with 95%
confident interval.
Solve
Table 2 Readers of the newspaper related to time.

Năm t (time) y (x1000) t.y t2 t2.y t3 t3.y t4 t4.y
1996 1 53 53 1 53 1 53 1 53
1997 2 65 130 4 260 8 520 16 1040
1998 3 74 222 9 666 27 1998 81 5994
1999 4 85 340 16 1360 64 5440 256 21760
2000 5 92 460 25 2300 125 11500 625 57500
2001 6 105 630 36 3780 216 22680 1296 136080
2002 7 120 840 49 5880 343 41160 2401 288120
2003 8 128 1024 64 8192 512 65536 4096 524288
4/ 10
2004 9 144 1296 81 11664 729 104976 6561 944784

2005 10 158 1580 100 15800 1000 158000 10000 1580000
2006 11 179 1969 121 21659 1331 238249 14641 2620739
2007 12 195 2340 144 28080 1728 336960 20736 4043520
Total 78 1398 10884 650 99694 474552 987072 60710 10223878
I have graphs show audience of the newspaper in 12 years from 1996 to 2007 as follows:
From table 2 above, we calculate the means value of t and y as follows:
As the graph represented by the function y t above, we easily see t and y is a linear relationship.
Applied Linear-Trend model for with variables y and t, we get :
From above equation, we get :
5/ 10
(với n=12)
From equation above, we can rewrite the regression Linear-trend model as below :
Comment 1 : annual average of the local newspaper has a constant readership of 34,818 people and
tends to increase a fort of the year which is 12,566 people online. Thus, each year the local
newspaper have got over 12,566 more readers and a pretty big audience.
From regression equation above, we can forecasts the readers in year 2008 and year 2009 as :
Comment 2 : I predicted that the newspaper will have 198,182 readers in 2008 and 210,748
readers in 2009.
Applied Excel 2007 for solving regression Linear-trend equation (set Data  Data Analysis 
Regression  chọn Confidence Level = 95% to identify the confident interval of 95%)
6/ 10
As the Excel data presented above, by 2007 the linear regression equation is the audience of about
185.615 people, nearly 9.500 lower than the actual person. Because this is a local newspaper within
increasing readership about of 12.566 every year, so the error of the linear regression equation is too
large for practica. It does not satisfy the necessary elements and integrity of data. As calculated in
2007, then perhaps the local newspaper can be a severe loss not fully meet the needs readers and
customers will turn to the competitors of that paper to buy other newspapers. Thus, local newspaper
can lose audience and gradually narrow the market until the dissolution or closure.
Applied the ability to graph illustrating of the SPSS 17 that is one form of graphs showing the
distribution of medical standards y by t:
From the graph above, we easily see that the Quadratic-Trend model which standard distribution
approaches to y values. From that view points, I concludes that distribution of is a Quadratic-
Trend model.
7/ 10
We have got equations (n=12) :
From above equation as well as solution of SPSS 17, we can write the Quadratic-Trend equation as:
Applied above equation to forecast the readers in three years 2007,2008 and 2009:
Applied SPSS 17 we can get solotion as :
8/ 10
Comments : easily see the trends on the quadratic distribution function that we obtain more
accurate data on the audience in the local newspaper. As the equation shows normal distribution,
the newspaper audience has a 48,636 average each year and tended to increase more linearly 6,644
audiences and concurrently around of 456 extra readers. In 2008, the number of newspaper readers
can be achieved 231,028 readers and it will be 212,072 people in 2009.
Conclusion of excercise 8.3 : The standard distribution is a Quadratic trend model as

. Instead of this , each year the local newspaper has a readership of
an average 48,636 people and increased the annual premium 6644 readers within regular extra 456
people online.
9/ 10
REFERENCE
TEXTBOOK:
1. Lecture notes and articles of BUAD555 Decision Science & Statistic for Managers(Griggs
University).
2. Mark L.Berenson, David M. Levine & Timothy C.Krehbiel, “Basic Business Statistic :
Concepts and Applications” 11th edition, Prentice Hall, 2009, ISBN : 978-0-13-500936-
9.
3. Financial Bureau of Vietnam, “Manual of Accounting For Director and Accounting
Manager In Enterprise”, Lao Dong – Xa Hoi, 2009, ISBN: 89-35206-50099-8.
INFORMATION RESOURCE:
4. South Branch Office of the Hanoi University of Technology.
5. Chula bookstore of Thailand Kingdom
6. Phuong Nam Bookstore of Vietnam (PNC group)
OTHER IMPORTANCE ARTICLES:

7. Website of Vietnam Statistic Office: http://www.gso.gov.vn
10/ 10

C02 BUAD555 DSB BTCN ChienTM EN

Hochgeladen von

Dokumentinformationen

Originalbeschreibung:

Originaltitel

Copyright

Verfügbare Formate

Dieses Dokument teilen

Dokument teilen oder einbetten

Freigabeoptionen

Stufen Sie dieses Dokument als nützlich ein?

Sind diese Inhalte unangemessen?

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

C02 BUAD555 DSB BTCN ChienTM EN

Hochgeladen von

Copyright:

Verfügbare Formate

INTERNATIONAL MASTER OF BUSINESS PROGRAM

Website: www.griggs.edu.vn Email: gamba@griggs.edu.vn

Subject: BUAD555 Decision Science and Statistic for Managers

Final Individual Assessment

APPLIED STATISTIC AND ESTIMATION THEORY FOR ORGANIZATION

c. Histogram, and other frequency plots

d. Comments on the age distribution of patients

Table 2 Readers of the newspaper related to time.

2004 9 144 1296 81 11664 729 104976 6561 944784

From table 2 above, we calculate the means value of t and y as follows:

From above equation, we get :

We have got equations (n=12) :

Applied SPSS 17 we can get solotion as :

Conclusion of excercise 8.3 : The standard distribution is a Quadratic trend model as

OTHER IMPORTANCE ARTICLES:

Das könnte Ihnen auch gefallen