Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232

DOI 10.1007/s13369-015-1899-z

RESEARCH ARTICLE - CIVIL ENGINEERING

Probability of Failure of Corroding Reinforced Concrete Columns

under Eccentric Loading
Mohammed A. Al-Osta1 · Abul Kalam Azad1 · Shokri Zaki Selim2

Received: 30 April 2015 / Accepted: 6 October 2015 / Published online: 20 October 2015
© King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals 2015

Abstract The load-carrying capacity of an eccentrically Keywords Corrosion · Eccentrically loaded columns ·
loaded reinforced concrete column affected by corrosion of Residual strength · Monte Carlo simulation · Reliability ·
reinforcement will progressively decrease with time due to Probability of failure
the buildup of corrosion-induced damage in the form of
loss of reinforcement area, cracking and spalling of con- Notations
crete cover. Due to the complexity of corrosion problems, a As Cross-sectional area of corroded reinforcement
probability-based assessment of failure, instead of a deter- As Cross-sectional area of un-corroded reinforcement
ministic approach to ascertain safety, is prudently more D Diameter of corroded reinforcing bar
appealing. An attempt has been made to propose a method D Diameter of un-corroded reinforcing bar
for computing probability of failure of corroded eccentri- e Eccentricity of the applied load
cally loaded columns using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) f c 28-Day compressive strength of concrete
of a proposed limit state safety function based on a time- fy Yield strength of reinforcing bar
dependent strength prediction model for the residual strength. Icorr Corrosion current density
The MCS covers a large number of possible combinations of Icorr T Corrosion activity index
all governing parameters related to strength within their pre- Fthu Original load-carrying capacity of
scribed distributional characteristics. The results show that un-corroded member
MCS can be used to estimate probabilities of failure, and that Fres (T ) Member’s residual strength at corrosion time T
the corrosion current density and the ratio of eccentricity of Fu Factored load for design
the applied axial load to the depth of the section, e/ h, are the Fs Service load demand
two significant factors that affect the probability of failure at F∗ Theoretical capacity of the corroded member
a prescribed corrosion period the most. F ∗ is calculated using conventional mechanics
and only the reduced area of longitudinal steel
As due to corrosion, ignoring all other applicable
B Mohammed A. Al-Osta damage factors
malosta@kfupm.edu.sa g(X ) Limit state function
Abul Kalam Azad h Depth of cross section
akazad@kfupm.edu.sa n Limit factor for the reduced acceptable
Shokri Zaki Selim residual strength
selim@kfupm.edu.sa Pf Probability of failure
1 Pr Penetration rate (penetration depth/time)
Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, King Fahd
University of Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5058, T Duration of corrosion in days
Dhahran 31261, Saudi Arabia Tc Critical time at which ωFthu equals Fres
2 Systems Engineering Department, King Fahd University of Ta Corrosion initiation period
Petroleum and Minerals, KFUPM Box 5058, Dhahran 31261, Ts Useful service life of a corroding member
Saudi Arabia prior to repair

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1226
X Vector of design variables which affect the strength
λ Metal loss factor = 2Pr T /D
ω Maximum permitted reduction factor that would
ensure acceptable level of safety
α Strength reduction factor
1 Introduction
Residual strength of a corroding reinforced concrete member
progressively declines with corrosion time due to cumulative
damage leading to failure when the residual strength falls
below the service load demand. As part of an inspection and
assessment work, it is often necessary to have an expert opin-
ion of the load-carrying capacity of corroded members. This
information is vital to ascertain the prevailing level of safety
of the structure to avoid the risk of unexpected structural fail-
ure. Furthermore, it is also necessary to determine the extent
of corrosion damage and its implication on safety so that the
necessary repair or restoration work can be planned in time
without further compromising the safety of the structure.
The multiple factors that contribute to corrosion damage of
reinforced concrete members in general are complexly inter-
connected and can vary randomly with certain deviations
from the mean values. The failure of a corroded reinforced
concrete column would depend on the possible critical com-
bination of the random variables that contribute to strength
and safety. For a safety analysis of a corroded member, a large
number of system parameters that govern the strength need
to be considered as random variables. Because of the ran-
domness of the parameters, a probability-based assessment
of failure, in lieu of a deterministic one, which is difficult to
develop, is viewed as more appropriate.
Most of the past works on assessment of reliability or
safety of corroded elements by determining the probability
of failure have predominately focused on corroded beams.
Thus far, reliability modeling of eccentrically load columns
has received limited attention. Cheung and Kyle [1] have
described the use of a reliability-based system to predict
the service life and repair procedures for reinforced con-
crete structures, suggesting that the major rehabilitation
decisions can be made by using reliability as a measure of
performance requirements, inspection, and preventive main-
tenance. Enright and Frangopol [2] have studied the loss of
flexural strength in concrete bridge beams due to corrosion of
steel reinforcement, concluding that the results can be used
to develop optimal lifetime reliability-based maintenance
strategies for reinforced concrete bridges under environmen-
tal attack. Li [3] has presented a methodology to predict the
service life of corroded concrete structures. Val [4] has stud-
ied the effect of corrosion of reinforcing steel on flexural and
shear strength, and subsequently on reliability of reinforced
concrete beams. Darmawan [5] has described the acceler-
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Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232
ated corrosion test designed to obtain a statistical parameter
of pit-depth distributions. It is concluded that the probability
distribution of maximum pit depths at the completion of an
accelerated corrosion test for a given corrosion rate i corr-exp
could be described using the Gumbel distribution. Stewart [6]
has developed a spatial time-dependent reliability model for
a RC beam subject to corrosion-induced pitting corrosion, for
shear and flexural limit states. Araújo [7] has presented the
probabilistic finite element analysis of reinforced concrete
columns. The two-part study of Bhargava et al. [8,9] has
addressed time-dependent reliability analysis of RC beams
affected by reinforcement corrosion. The effects of time to
corrosion initiation and its variability on the failure probabil-
ity of the considered RC beam were discussed. In the second
part, the estimation of time-dependent failure probability is
presented by using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) that pro-
vides an insight on the dependence of failure probability of
beam on the variability associated with the time-dependent
strengths.
A review of the literature shows that the probability of
failure analysis of corroded columns has received limited
attention. In this paper, the probability of failure of cor-
roded eccentrically loaded concrete columns is examined as
such members are common structural elements in buildings.
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) of a limit state safety function
formulated based on the time-dependent residual strength
predication model proposed by Azad and Al-Osta [10] is
used in the absence of any other recognized method. The pri-
mary aim was to show the applicability of MCS in assessing
the probability of failure based on a strength prediction model
and highlight the significant factors that affect the probability
the most.
2 Damage Propagation and Structural Safety
Once corrosion is initiated in a reinforced concrete mem-
ber, its original load-carrying capacity Fthu is progressively
reduced with corrosion time as indicated in Fig. 1 due to
progressive buildup of damage over time. Fres (T ) in Fig. 1
represents the member’s residual strength at corrosion time
T . In strength design method, the original strength Fthu of
an un-corroded member is greater than or equal to Fu , the
required strength for critical factored load for design. The
use of load factors to ensure safety results in values of Fthu
being greater than the service load demand, Fs . Because of
this built-in margin of safety above Fs , some loss of Fthu due
to corrosion will not cause a corroded member to fail, as long
as the residual strength Fres is greater than the service load
requirement, although the original targeted factor of safety
is compromised by a reduced factor of safety.
Theoretically, a corroding member at a time T can be
declared as safe, if the residual strength Fres (T ) exceeds
Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232
Capacity
Original capacity
Fthu
Acceptable limit
ωFthu
Service load demand
Fs
Fres (T)
0 Tc Corrosion time (T)
Fig. 1 Deterioration model
the service load demand Fs , i.e., Fres (T ) > Fs . However,
in practice, a minimum acceptable factor of safety must be
assumed to establish the lowest permissible level of residual
strength to ensure that the corroded member is indeed safe.
If ω is the maximum permitted reduction factor that would
ensure acceptable level of safety, the reduced strength ωFthu
must be greater than or equal to Fs (Fig. 1).
The ratio of the reduced original strength to the service
load demand, ωFthu /Fs , represents the minimum safety fac-
tor considered permissible before repair or remedial actions
must be undertaken. The critical time at which ωFthu equals
Fres is Tc as shown in Fig. 1, beyond which the member is
declared as “unsafe” or potentially hazardous. A corroding
member can therefore be considered as “safe” when the cor-
rosion period T ≤ Tc , i.e., when Fres (T ), is greater or equal
to ωFthu . A corroded member should therefore be repaired
to restore its strength prior to reaching the critical corrosion
time Tc . An estimation of Tc is therefore necessary to estab-
lish the maximum period of corrosion that can theoretically
be permitted for a corroding member. This information is
useful for planning of repair or restoration work. If Ta = cor-
rosion initiation period, the useful service life of a corroding
member prior to repair, Ts is: Ts = Ta + Tc .
3 Limit State Function for Strength and Safety
The structural safety criterion stipulates that the residual
load-carrying capacity of a corroded member at a prescribed
corrosion period T must be greater than or equal to ωFthu ,
which is the lowest permissible demand on load capacity.
The limit state function for safety is then: Fres − ωFthu ≥ 0.
Both Fres and ωFthu values are governed by a set of design
variables that may vary randomly within upper and lower
limits. In addition, there are factors that affect the corrosion
rate and damage and hence Fres values. Thus, Fres and ωFthu
constitute a large number of values depending upon the ran-
dom combination of all the design variables within the range
of their possible distributions.
1227
The limit state function g(X ) for a corroded member can
be expressed as [11]
g (X ) = g(Fres , ωFthu ) = Fres (X ) − ωFthu (X ) (1)
when X = vector of design variables which affect the
strength. These include material properties, structural details,
and corrosion rate.
The probability of failure Pf for a given limit state function
g(X ) is then
Pf = P[g(X ) ≤ 0] = P[(Fres (X ) − ωFthu (X )) ≤ 0] (2a)
Equation (2a) can be recast as
Pf = P[g  (X )] ≥ n (2b)
when g  (X ) = Fthu (X )/Fres (X ) and n = 1/ω, the limit
factor for the reduced acceptable residual strength.
The use of Eqs. (2a) or (2b) requires the values of Fthu and
Fres . While the former can easily be calculated through con-
ventional mechanics for reinforced concrete columns [12]
using limiting compressive strain for concrete as 0.003, the
latter requires an analytical formulation or approach for pre-
diction of residual strength at time T .
3.1 Residual Strength Prediction Model
As a time-dependent formulation of Fres is a necessary
requisite, the formulation of Fres recently proposed by the
authors [10], based on an extensive experimental work, has
been used in the absence of any other credible method for
estimation of residual strength of corroded columns under
eccentric loading. In the experimental work of Azad and Al-
Osta [10], 36 reinforced concrete specimens of square cross
sections were corroded in accelerated corrosion in a labo-
ratory test setup and then tested under eccentric loading to
determine the residual load-carrying capacity of the corroded
specimens. In addition, 12 un-corroded control specimens
were also tested to determine the strength of the undamaged
specimens. The test variables included two different cross
sections (180 × 180 and 220 × 220 mm), two different diam-
eters of longitudinal bars (4–18 and 4–20 mm diameter), and
different corrosion period T . The geometrical dimensions
of test specimens allowed them to be classified as “short
columns” having no slenderness effect.
Using gravimetric weight loss analysis in which the
corroded bars were extracted after the end of scheduled corro-
sion period T , then cleaned of all rust and concrete products,
and finally, weighed to find the weight loss, the value of cor-
rosion activity index Icorr T (Icorr = corrosion current density
in mA/cm2 and T = corrosion time in days) was determined
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for each corroded specimen. Using test data, an experimen-
tally correlated formulation of Fres is developed that yields
results in good agreement with test data reported by other
researchers [10]. The proposed strength prediction model, a
function of the important corrosion damage factor Icorr T ,
is a two-step procedure. First, the theoretical capacity of
the corroded member, F ∗ , is calculated using conventional
mechanics [12] and the reduced area of longitudinal steel
As due to corrosion, ignoring all other applicable damage
factors.
The value of As allowing for the metal loss due to uniform
corrosion is given as [13]
As = As (1 − λ)2 (3)
where As is the cross-sectional area of the original bar diam-
eter D, λ = 2Pr T /D and Pr = 0.003185Icorr (cm/day) [14]
for steady-state uniform corrosion with current density of
Icorr . It is assumed that all longitudinal steel bars of the col-
umn will corrode uniformly at the same rate. For evaluation
of F ∗ , the value of As is used in the place of As .
Then, the residual strength Fres is calculated by multiply-
ing F ∗ with a strength reduction factor α, which collectively
accounts for all other crack-induced damage factors. Thus,
Fres = α F ∗ (4)
The correction or the reduction factor α has been developed
based on a statistical correlation with the experimental data
for the actual strength using only significant factors, which
has adverse implication on strength. These factors include
Icorr T , the bar diameter D, member size h, and the eccen-
tricity of loading e. The last two variables are collectively
represented as e/ h, which is a characteristic parameter that
governs the mode of failure of an eccentrically loaded col-
umn. From the experimental observations and several trial
forms of α, the expression for α that produces best-fitting
results is given as [10]
 1.48
D
(e/ h)0.14 D
α = 1.323 (α ≤ 1) (5)
(Icorr T )0.192
where D  = diameter of corroded reinforcing bar, D =
diameter of un-corroded reinforcing bar, e = eccentricity of
the applied load, h = depth of cross section across the axis of
bending, Icorr = corrosion current density in mA/cm2 , and
T = duration of corrosion in days. The proposed strength
prediction approach appears to yield satisfactory results
when compared with the available test data [10], lending
confidence in its application within the range of test vari-
ables used in the experimental work.
It should be noted that the Eq. (5) was developed based on
a substantial amount of test data using selected dimensions
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Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232
Probabilistic Data
Define Input
Parameters and
Statistical Distributions
Generate Random Limit State Function
Parameters
Monte Carlo Generator
Probabilistic Result
Probability of Failure
Pf
Or Reliability Index
Fig. 2 Flowchart representation for estimating the probability of fail-
ure by Monte Carlo simulation approach
for test variables. As such, the proposed strength predic-
tion model is expected to produce acceptable results within
the range of e/ h (closer to 0.17–0.53) and Icorr T (closer to
9.0–25.0 mA-days/cm2) that were used in the experiment.
Equation (5) is not applicable for smaller values of e (more
like a column) and large values of e (more like a beam).
As no other explicit form of an expression for Fres is avail-
able and the intent of this paper is to highlight the significant
parameters that affect the probability of failure the most,
Eq. (4) has been used to evaluate Pf using Eqs. (2a) or (2b).
3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) [15] is used to determine
the probability of failure, as the limit state function g(X )
is complex and has several uncertain parameters (random
variables). The flowchart shown in Fig. 2 for estimating the
probability of failure using MCS consists of the following
steps:
(i) Identify all random variables X and their statistical dis-
tributions (input parameters) and the domain of the
inputs.
(ii) From the statistical distributions for the input parame-
ters, generate inputs randomly over the domain.
(iii) Calculate g(X ) = Fres (X ) − ωFthu (X ).
(iv) Repeat steps (ii) and (iii) until a sufficient number of
g(X) values is generated.
(v) Estimate the probability of failure from
Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232 1229

Table 1 Assumed values of

Variables Mean (µ) Coefficient of Distribution
variables and their statistical
variation (CV = σ/μ)
parameters
f c (MPa) 30 0.18 Lognormal
f y (MPa) 460 0.10 Lognormal
h (mm) 300 0.05 Normal
Initial diameter of steel reinforcement D (mm) 16 0.02 Lognormal
e/ h 0.2 0.01 Normal
Clear concrete cover (mm) 40 0.05 Normal
Corrosion current density
Icorr (µA/cm2 ) 1.0 0.2 Normal
1.5 0.2 Normal
2.5 0.25 Normal

number of times g(X ) ≤ 0

Pf = , or
total number of simulated g(X ) values
(6a)
number of times g  (X )
≥n
Pf = (6b)
total number of simulated g  (X ) values

3.3 Determination of Probability of Failure

The suggested procedure for estimation of probabilities of

failure of eccentrically loaded columns and the effect of
design variables on probabilities can be best illustrated with
an example. A short column of 300 mm square cross section,
reinforced with four longitudinal bars of 16 mm diameter,
Fig. 3 Probability of failure of the example column for mean corrosion
is considered. The input parameters used in this study are: current density of 1.0 µA/cm2 (n = 1.2 and e/ h = 0.2)
corrosion current density Icorr , yield strength of steel f y , com-
pressive strength of concrete f c , the bar diameter D, member
size h, clear concrete cover, and eccentricity e. The assumed
distribution and statistical parameters for all variables are col-
an assumed value of n = 1.2, is shown in Fig. 3 for the
lectively shown in Table 1. For the corrosion current density
eccentrically loaded column with an eccentricity ratio of
Icorr , the three mean values are used (Table 1).
e/ h = 0.20. From a typical plot like the one depicted in
For determination of probability of failure using Eqs. (6a)
Fig. 3, two extreme cases are observed. An early corrosion
or (6b), a purpose-built software based on the function avail-
period from the onset of corrosion exists within which the
able in FORTRAN language was utilized to generate more
probability of failure is virtually nil as the corrosion damage
than 1,000,000 random variables within the assumed dis-
is minimal. This implies the member’s residual load capacity
tribution of the variables given in Table 1. The limitations
is sufficient to practically exclude probability of failure. As Pf
of the program include those assumed in the formula-
increases with T , due to reduction in Fres , a corrosion period
tion: The column cross section is square with symmetrical
exists beyond which the corrosion damage is large enough
arrangement of longitudinal bars; e/ h > 0.1 and Icorr T >
to practically imply 100 % probability of failure. For a given
1.0 mA-days/cm2 . While the software can be used with any
problem with all necessary data, Pf –T plot as shown in Fig. 3
input data of the variables, it should be noted that the results
can be constructed for a chosen value of ω or n(n = 1/ω) to
would be more accurate if the input parameters are not sig-
statistically present prediction of failure. Based on an accept-
nificantly different than those used in the experimental work.
able value of Pf , decided from the importance of structure
and the risk tolerance, the critical corrosion time Tc can be
4 Results and Discussion established from such a plot, prior to which corrective mea-
sures should be undertaken to restore safety. For example, if a
A plot of probability of failure, Pf with T , determined from value of Pf = 0.10 is acceptable for the case shown in Fig. 3,
numerical simulation of limit sate function (Eq. 6b) with the critical corrosion period Tc is approximately 7 years.

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100
8 years
90
12 years
80
16 years
70
20 years
60
Pf %

24 years
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
n

Fig. 4 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column for

mean corrosion current density of 1.0 µA/cm2 and different values of Fig. 5 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column
T (e/ h = 0.2) for different values of corrosion current density (T = 20 years;
h = 300 mm; D = 16 mm; f c = 30 MPa; f y = 460 MPa and
e/ h = 0.2)
For a corroding member whose properties are known, the
two factors that affect Pf at a given mean, Icorr , are T and
n. For assumed T and Icorr values, Pf versus n plots can be
generated for various values of n as shown in Fig. 4, which is
based on Icorr = 1.0 µA/cm2 . From such plots, the required
value of n corresponding to a value of Pf decided in an assess-
ment problem can be obtained for a given T . It should be
noted that higher the assumed value of n (lesser value of ω)
is, the lesser would be the demand for the residual strength.
The higher value of n is only possible only if the original
strength has a large enough factor of safety. The Pf –n plots
as shown in Fig. 4 have the following two utilities:

(i) For a chosen Pf and corrosion period T , the necessary

value of n can be estimated. Fig. 6 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column for
different values of cross section (T = 20 years; Icorr = 1 µA/cm2 ; D =
(ii) For chosen value of Pf and n, the corresponding critical
16 mm; f c = 30 MPa; f y = 460 MPa and e/ h = 0.2)
time T can be determined.

Item (ii) is of practical significance, as both Pf and n values
are predetermined in practical problems. Referring to Fig. 4
and data used therein, the following illustrates the utilities of
probability of failure curves. If n = 1.2, Pf is approximately
22 % at the corrosion period T = 8 years. However for the
same value of n, the Pf would increase to about 87 % at
T = 12 years, and almost 100 % at T = 16 years, making
the member essentially unsafe. As any theoretical approach
toward an estimation of the residual strength would be an
approximate one due to complexities of the problem, a con-
servative value of n should prudently be decided upon for a
safer estimation of Pf .
4.1 Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis of the model’s input parameters is
performed with the aim of identifying the most important
parameters affecting the probability of failure. The sensitiv-
ity with respect to change in the mean value of the random
variables is examined by varying the mean values. The five
key parameters that influence the carrying capacity of a mem-
ber are considered: Icorr , h, D, f c and e/ h. Figures 5, 6, 7, 8,
and 9 show the effect of these parameters on Pf . It can be seen
from Fig. 5 that, at a given value of e/ h and T , the probabil-
ity of structural failure for a chosen value of n increases as
the corrosion current density Icorr increases, signaling that Pf
is highly dependent upon the accuracy of Icorr . Thus, for an
assessment, a conservative value of Icorr should be considered
if it cannot be fairly estimated with certainty. As expected,
the change in mean value of cross-sectional dimension h of
column has little effect on the probability of failure of eccen-
trically loaded columns (Fig. 6) as e/ h is kept unchanged
at 0.2. For a constant value of e/ h, it appears that the effect
of h on Pf is negligible. While the bar diameter D has some

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Arab J Sci Eng (2016) 41:1225–1232
Fig. 7 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column
for different values of diameter bar (T = 20 years; Icorr =
1.0 µA/cm2 ; h = 600 mm; f c = 30 MPa; f y = 460 MPa and
e/ h = 0.2)
Fig. 8 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column
for different values of concrete strength f c (T = 20 years; Icorr =
1.0 µA/cm2 ; D = 16 mm; h = 300 mm, f y = 460 MPa and
e/ h = 0.2)
influence on Pf (Fig. 7), the mean value of concrete’s com-
pressive strength f c has virtually very little effect on Pf
(Fig. 8). The effect of e/ h on Pf depicted in Fig. 9 indi-
cates that the probability of failure increases as the ratio of
e/ h decreases for a given n, meaning compression-controlled
sections with lower e/ h are more critical with respect to
probability of failure than the same column with larger e/ h
(tension-controlled design). This is because the damage to
concrete cover due to corrosion is more pronounced for
compression-controlled members, in which loss of concrete
section is more critical than the tension-controlled members.
It can be concluded from Figs. 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 that the cor-
rosion current density Icorr and the ratio e/ h are the two
most sensitive factors that affect the probability of failure
for eccentrically loaded columns the most. While e/ h val-
ues can be estimated with greater certainty, a great deal of
1231
Fig. 9 Evaluation of probability of failure of the example column for
different values of e/ h(T = 20 years; Icorr = 1.0 µA/cm2 ; D =
16 mm; h = 300 mm, f c = 30 MPa and f y = 460 MPa)
uncertainty will exist with Icorr values. This is because it has
to be measured in situ, and there are shortcomings with the
currently available test methods and equipment.
4.2 Application
This study presents an acceptable analytical method for an
estimation of probability of failure of corroded columns
that may help in making engineering judgment with regard
to safety and repair. With the exception of Icorr , the val-
ues of all other input parameters can be estimated with
greater certainty. An estimate of Icorr can be made using
linear polarization or galvanostatic pulse method [16], but
the actual field applications of these methods have limi-
tations. In some cases, measurement of metal loss from a
corroded steel sample, collected from the corroding mem-
ber, can provide an indicative value of Icorr through metal
loss formula [14] for steady-state uniform corrosion. The
following broad guidance on the range of Icorr [16] can
help in deciding on a conservative value of Icorr based on
experience: Icorr = 10–100 µA/cm2 for high corrosion rate,
1–10 µA/cm2 for medium corrosion rate, and 0.1–1 µA/cm2
for low corrosion rate. MCS of the proposed safety model
can then be performed using all input design parameters with
their possible statistical distribution as mentioned earlier to
study the probability of failure.
An application of the proposed method is illustrated by
using the following test data of Wang and Liang [17]: col-
umn cross section = 200 × 200 mm (h = 200 mm); As
consists of 4–18 mm diameter bars; average clear concrete
cover =31.5 mm; eccentricity e = 50 mm (e/ h = 0.25);
concrete f c = 40 MPa; steel f y = 397.5 MPa and Icorr =
1.0 µA/cm2 .
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Assuming the maximum permitted strength reduction fac-
tor ω is 0.714, corresponding to n = 1.40, the probability of
failure Pf at 15 years with steady-state corrosion is about 5 %
only, implying that the column is essentially safe. However,
Pf increases to about 49 % at 20 years, making the column
uncomfortably vulnerable. If ω is increased to a higher value,
Pf will decrease.
5 Conclusions
In this study, probability of failure of corroded eccentri-
cally loaded short columns has been examined using Monte
Carlo simulation of a limit state function formulated with a
time-dependent strength prediction model developed by the
authors. Based on this study, the following conclusions are
drawn:
1. Probability of failure and hence reliability can be esti-
mated using Monte Carlo simulation of a limit state
function for safety of a corroded eccentrically loaded
short columns. The determination of probability of fail-
ure using a residual strength prediction model in a limit
state safety function has been demonstrated.
2. The probability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation
reveals that the two parameters, corrosion current density
Icorr and eccentricity ratio e/ h, are the two most sensi-
tive factors for estimation of the probability of failure of
corroded eccentrically loaded columns.
Acknowledgments The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial
support provided by King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals
under project SB121001. The support of the Department of Civil and
Environmental Engineering for this work is also acknowledged.
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