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James M. Lindsay
Remembering Those Memorial Day Honors
However, experts stress that the deal between U.S. President Donald J.
Trump’s administration and the Taliban leadership is only the first step to
achieving lasting peace. The bigger challenge, they say, will be negotiating
an agreement between the Islamist fundamentalist group and the Afghan
government on Afghanistan’s future. Many Afghans, exhausted by a war that
has killed thousands of people and forced millions to flee as refugees, fear
that a U.S. withdrawal could spark new conflict and eventually allow the
Taliban to regain control.
At the same time, experts say the Taliban is stronger now than at any point in
the last eighteen years. With an estimated sixty thousand fighters, it controls
many districts throughout the country and continues to launch major attacks,
including in Kabul and on Afghan security bases. It earns millions of dollars
from opium poppy cultivation [PDF] and the illegal drug trade, which pose
further problems for the peace process. Some analysts are also worried that
rank-and-file Taliban fighters might not abide by a peace deal.
Countries on Afghanistan’s borders, including Pakistan, which serves as the
home base for the Taliban leadership, could feel excluded from talks and
mobilize opposition against them. Additionally, the threat of terrorism is still
present, with more than twenty terrorist groups operating inside the country,
according to Afghan officials. Many of the groups are aligned with the
Taliban or al-Qaeda, and the resurgence of the Islamic State is a concern.
The United States invaded Afghanistan in response to the 9/11 attacks, which
were carried out by al-Qaeda. The Taliban, a predominantly Pashtun, Islamist
fundamentalist group that had ruled Afghanistan since 1996, provided refuge
to al-Qaeda and refused to hand over terrorist leader Osama bin Laden. At the
start of the war, in October 2001, U.S. President George W. Bush said the
U.S. mission was to “disrupt the use of Afghanistan as a terrorist base of
operations and to attack the military capability of the Taliban regime.”
U.S.-led forces quickly ousted the Taliban, which retreated to Pakistan. From
there, it has continued to wage an insurgency against the U.S.-backed
government in Kabul, whose president was democratically elected in 2004.
The United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO)
mission then worked to bolster the Kabul government’s authority and
reconstruct Afghanistan, in addition to fighting the Taliban insurgency.
In 2014, U.S.-led NATO forces ended their combat mission and passed on
security responsibilities to the Afghan army and police. However, around
seventeen thousand NATO troops, including U.S. service members, stayed in
the country to train, advise, and assist Afghan security forces.
Timeline
The war is estimated to have cost the United States around $2 trillion,
including money spent on counternarcotics efforts, development projects, and
support for Afghan security forces. Billions of dollars have been spent on
medical and disability care for U.S. veterans.
The U.S.-Taliban peace process has received wide support, including from
NATO partners and from China and Russia.
Pakistan. The Taliban formed in Pakistan in the 1990s following the Soviet
Union’s departure from Afghanistan. Many of its original fighters were
Pashtuns who studied in Pakistani madrassas. After the U.S. invasion,
Pakistan granted the Taliban safe havens and its Inter-Services Intelligence,
which was thought to have some degree of control over the Taliban for years,
provided military expertise and fundraising assistance. Experts say Pakistan
now desires an Afghan government that includes the Taliban and is friendlier
toward Islamabad than it is to New Delhi. (Officials in Islamabad have long
feared Pakistani rival India gaining influence in Afghanistan). Pakistani
Prime Minister Imran Khan has denied that the country has provided support
to the Taliban and he has supported negotiations. Pakistani officials opened
up a channel for U.S. negotiators to initially reach the Taliban.
Iran. Shiite-majority Iran has long viewed the Taliban, a Sunni group, as a
foe, especially since it has received support from Iranian rivals Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Iran accepted U.S. efforts to
overthrow the Taliban in 2001 and supported the Afghan government. Iranian
leaders have since acknowledged that the Taliban will continue to maintain
some power in Afghanistan, so they have started working to improve ties.
The trafficking of drugs from Afghanistan through Iran and opium addiction
in Iran are problems in the two countries’ relationship.