WiMAX Forum Indonesia Chapter:

WiMAX in Emerging 
i E i
Economies

Werner Sutanto
Fri, 26 Nov 2010, Jakarta Indonesia
Intel Corporation, South-East Asia.
 Topics
p

y Broadband and GDP growth

g
y Key Drivers for BB
– Voice ARPU declining
– Data demand
y Snapshot WiMAX Deployment in Asia
y Indonesia BB status and challenges it’s
it s facing
y Intel – The technology ingredient company
y Technology to address the challenges
y Summary
 The Economics Benefit of Broadband
1.38
High‐‐Income Countries
High
1.21
Low‐ and Middle
Low‐ and Middle‐‐Income  1.12
C
Countries
ti

0.81 0.77
0.73
0.6
06
0.43

Fixed Telephony MobileTelephony Internet Broadband

Growth Impact of telecommunications
GDP percentage point increase due to 10 percent increase in penetration
Qiang, Christine Z., 2009. “Telecommunications and Economic Growth.” 6 Booz & Company, Digital Highways: The Role of Government In
Unpublished paper. World Bank, Washington, D.C. 21st-Century Infrastructure, 2009, p. 5
 Broadband and Services
Providing the Next Rev Growth

Voice
o ce for
o All Broadband for All

SHIFTIN
G
FOCUS

…...Data Revenues Grow……

While Voice Revenues Continue Decline.....
UPDATE 4-Reuters Thu Nov11, 2010 - Telecom Egypt's profit dips, eyes data growth
4
 1.4 billion Internet users
Drivers
>150 million websites
1.5B web searches daily
Worldwide 10 hours of new video uploaded to YouTube every minute
1 billion IM users
10 billion videos viewed every month
,
100,000 blogs
g created dailyy
¾ of a trillion dollars online sales worldwide
3 million Twitter messages sent every day

Thailand: 99.0M
0M internet/ 11.7M
Status
7M broadband users in ‘09
09
Indonesia: 40M Internet/ 1.0M broadband users in ‘09
Vietnam: 22M Internet/ 2.9M broadband users in ’09
Philippines: 26M internet/ 1.0M broadband users in ‘09
 BB penetration in some SEA countries

COUNTRY INDONESI MALAYSIA PHIL VIETNAM THAILAND

A
POP (1) (m): 240 27 98 89 68
H
Household
h ld (m)
( ) 60 6 20 30 18

Mobile (2) : 59% 99 % 55.1 % 73 % 81 %

Internet (1) : 17% 45 % 26 % 24 % 13 %
Broadband (3) % 0.4% 5.0 % 1.0 % 3.0 % 2.5 %
POPs:
Broadband (3) % 1.7%
1 7% *50
50 % 5.0%
5 0% 80%
8.0 94%
9.4
HH:

TARGET 50% 2010 TARGET 30%

2010/2011

Source: Internet World Stats (2H ’09), (2) ABI Research (2H ’09), (3) ITU (June ’09), * Mr Toh MCMC Nov’10 WF-SEA

- Indonesia has one of the lowest broadband penetration in the region even Indonesia has one of the lowest broadband penetration in the region even
when compared to countries with lower GDP-per-capita such as Vietnam and Philippines
-Big discrepancy between internet and broadband penetration rate (12.5% vs 0.1%) shows potential users for broadband connections once they are
available.
 Indonesia At a Glance
300

240
Key Penetration in millions
250

200

150
144 POP
Cellular
3% Internet
100 Househol
d Pen.
Pen Broadband
50 40
2
0
POP Cellular Internet Broadband

240M pop, 60M Household,

H h ld but
b t only
l 1.8M
1 8M BB users
Large Gap Between Internet User and Broadband Availability
Signify The Need and Opportunity
 Terabytes/Month: demands ‘data-focused’
technology
100,000,000
Source: TechWorld, November 27, 2008
10 000 000
10,000,000

1,000,000
WiMax Roaming Solves
‘3G Capacity Crunch’
100 000
100,000 3G not WiMax,
3G, WiMax over-hyped apparently

10,000

1 000
1,000 “The problem with 3G is in the air and the backhaul.
The network was built for narrow band and now
100 users are downloading video on iPlayer, on what is
essentially a voice network. In London my calls
10 have started dropping and on the motorway my
phone drops between cells.”
1
1995 2000 2005 2010
Forecast
Source: Caspian Networks and Cisco Estimates
 Which Technology…..?

AT&T's iPhone Mess KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan

The iPhone has swamped
p AT&T's data But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too
network and sparked a consumer KDDI’s President and Chairman, Tadashi Onodera 
stated at GSMA Mobile Asia Congress 2010.
rebellion.
TeleGeography Comms
Update
Cover Story Feb 3,
2010 Wed, 17 Nov 2010

A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such
Handle High Numbers of Mobile Internet Users huge data demands so we also need to use
other technologies such as WiMAX and Wi- Wi-Fi,’

Traffic Equivalents*
1 Laptop=
p p 15 Smartphones
p = 450 Voice
Handsets
* Source:
Other brands and names are the property of their respective owners. Cisco, 2009
 WiMAX Momentum in Asia is increasing

Augere – Bangla Desh Malaysia: P1 W1MAX Celebrates One

Year Anniversary with 100,000
OCT 2009 Subscribers
Augere launches first WiMax for Dhaka…Initially, the Qubee
service is available for businesses and residential customers Aug’09: “We are 1 yr into our mission to provide broadband
technology that reaches out to everyone in Malaysia. As one of
in Gulshan,
Gulshan Banani,
Banani Baridhara,
Baridhara Mirpur and Uttara.
Uttara Qubee will th fforerunners iin th
the the world
ld for
f large
l scale
l 802.16e
802 16 2.3GHz
2 3GH
be available across Bangladesh soon. commercial WiMAX deployment, we’re very proud of what we’ve
achieved today from ground zero.”… Michael Lai CEO P1

Japan: UQ Announces Start of Philippines: Globe

"UQ WiMAX" Business WiMAX passes 30K
subs in August.
On February 26, 2009, UQ Communications started UQ WiMAX “June 11, 2009: Intel is delighted to take part in the launch
Service. This is a global-standard "future broadband" service, of Globe Telecom’s WiMAX services in the Philippines,” said
enabling faster mobile data transmissions using Mobile WiMAX Navin Shenoy,y, Intel Corporation
p Vice President and APAC
General Manager.

RETHINK RESEARCH Wed 13 Oct 2010

Malaysia: YTL Communications
KT expand its ‘3W’3W 4G service – WiMAX,
WiMAX W-CDMA
W CDMA KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 19, 2010): YTL
Communications Sdn Bhd today launched the
and Wi-Fi, across Korea … By March, KT says it
world's first fully converged 4G mobile Internet
will be the first carrier in the world to offer
service with voice offering the industry's
nationwide Mobile WiMAX service, covering 82 lowest rates at nine sen a minute, per SMS or
cities across Korea, or 85% of the population. per 3MB of data through its pay-as-you-go
plan

10 All Deployments are 802.16e

WiMAX Direct Impact on Broadband Modem Pricing
Wireless Notebook Modem ASP Trajectory
$150 Since Intel
came out with
WiMAX 16e - Echo
2.5-3G Cellular
Peak

3 Chip .11N+.16E
11N+ 16E

WiFi .11ABG Single Chip

WiFi .11N .11N+.16E**

$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
*ABI Research, Q3’07 preliminary
** Intel Estimates
Multi-Comms
Multi Comms for the Next Decade
4G
Discrete
3G
AP
2G

Discrete
Wi-Fi
Wi-
BB BT
GPS
Integration
I t ti Of Technologies
T h l i TTo SoC S C And
A d Discrete
Di t Solutions
S l ti
Dependent Upon Cost and Power Targets
 Intel – a Technology Ingredient Company
ƒ Intel has been for sometime committed to expand our silicon offerings to include
additional communications silicon in addition to Wi-Fi and 4G
ƒ The
Th future
f t off networks
t k will
ill nott be
b a single
i l technology
t h l solution,
l ti butb t rather
th Service
S i
Providers will rely on multiple technologies deployed that client devices will need to be
ready to take advantage of and move between networks.
ƒ Our
O communications
i ti product
d t portfolio
tf li iincludes
l d WiWi-Fi,
Fi WiMAX,
WiMAX andd soon 3G andd LTE.
LTE
We are a Multi-Comm Technology Company.
ƒ TDD-LTE solutions are still a few years away and most LTE networks will take several
years to reach the level of maturity of current WiMAX networks.
ƒ Intel will deliver solutions as we believe the market need develops.
ƒ WiMAX remains
i our preferred
f d solution
l ti for
f WWAN today,
t d due
d to
t its
it
TTM (Time To Market), cost and performance advantages.
 Mature WiMAX Technology
Help Drive Broadband Acceleration
y USB Dongles Pricing dropped from $70 (2009) to $40 (2010)
y Dongles continue to come-down to $30 or lower in 2011
y Embedded module cost $50 in 2009, now less than $30 in 2010, and
continue going down to $20
$ in 2011 and lower in 2012
y Embedded WiMAX make it possible to support various devices ie.
handheld smartphones,
handheld, smartphones VoIP
VoIP, automotive applications
applications, smart
smart-metering
metering
 Key Take-Away
y Increasing broadband penetration is a matter of crucial National and Economic Interest
for Indonesia.
y Due to challenges in wired-broadband
wired broadband deployment and 3G limitation
limitation, the country must
deploy the latest, matured, wireless broadband technology available today
y Two wireless technology officially included in IMT-Advanced as 4G
– One is and has been here for many years with mature ecosystems - WiMAX
– The other one is just entering the marketing hype-stage, with NO mature ecosystems
yyet – LTE.
– WiMAX is a mature technology and available now
– Indonesia have several WiMAX 16e manufacturers compliant to TKDN requirement
by the government.
government
y Each month of delayed deployment means hampering the growth of the Country’s
Economy.
y “A Waiting Game is a Losing Game”
WiMAX Forum Indonesia Chapter:
WiMAX in Emerging 
Economies
Werner Sutanto
Wed, 26 Nov 2010, Jakarta Indonesia
Intel Corporation, South-East Asia.