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PEPERIKSAAN JUN 2018

PART A

QUESTION 1

a) FALSE
b) TRUE
c) TRUE
d) FALSE
e) TRUE

QUESTION 2
a) Maximax cretirion

Alternatives Unfavorable Stable Favorable Max payoff

FA 0 1 1 1*

FB 5 2 1 5

FC 2 0 0 2

Answer: Minimum payoff = RM1,000. Therefore, choose fund FA


QUESTION 3
a) Graphical solution

Constraint Testing point

X≥8
X = 0, Y = 30 (0 , 30)
X + Y ≥ 30
Y = 0, X = 30 (30 , 0)
X = 0, Y = 50 (0 , 50)
5X + 4Y ≤ 200
Y = 0, X = 40 (40 , 0)
Y ≥ 10
y
x=8
60

50

40 5x + 4y = 200

30

20

y = 10
10 x + y = 30

x
0
10 20 30 40 50

Corner point Testing point

(8 , 22) 808
(8 , 40) 1,312
(32 , 10) 1,048
(20 , 10) 760

Optimal point:
X = 20, y = 10
Minimum cost = RM760
QUESTION 4
Check balance problem:
No of row = No of Column = Balanced
Row minimization:

Machine
Technician
A B C
Ahmad 42 36 30
Bahari 39 30 33
Charles 36 39 27

Column minimization:

Machine
Technician
A B C
Ahmad 12 6 0
Bahari 9 0 3
Charles 9 12 0

Draw minimum lines:

Machine
Technician
A B C
Ahmad 3 6 0
Bahari 0 0 3

Charles 0 12 0

No of row/col = 3
optimal
No of lines = 3

Optimal solution:

Technician Machine Cost (RM)


Ahmad 3 30
Bahari 2 30
Charles 1 36
RM96
QUESTION 5
D = 1500 Pcost = 50 Q = 200 C0 = 70 Ch = 1.5

Current policy
Q = 200

Q D 200 1500
TC  Ch  C0  PD  (1.50)  (70)  (1500  50)  RM 75,675.00
2 Q 2 200

EOQ policy

2DC0 2  70  1500
EOQ    374.17  375 pieces
Ch 1.5

375 1500
TC  (1.50)  (70)  (1500  50)  RM 75,561.25
2 375

The current policy is not good practice based on minimum total inventory cost
PART B
QUESTION 1 Payoff
EMV1=735,250
High demand (0.73)
a) 850,000
1 Low demand (0.27)
425,000
735,250
EMV7=685,637.50
EMV2=625,000
High demand (0.73)
10 625,000
685,637.50 – 15,000 2
=670,637.50 Low demand (0.27) 625,000

EMV3=607,750
High demand (0.43) 850,000
670,637.50
3 Low demand (0.57) 425,000
625,000

EMV4=625,000 High demand (0.43) 625,000


4 Low demand (0.57) 625,000

EMV5=658,750 High demand (0.55)


850,000
5 Low demand (0.45)
425,000
658,750
EMV6=625,000
High demand (0.55) 625,000
6 Low demand (0.45) 625,000

b) EMVs
c) Max EMV = RM670,637.50. Therefore, the company should hire a sales expert.
If the market is favorable, buy a new ship. Otherwise, subcontract to another company.

d) EVSI = RM670,637.50 + RM15,000 – RM658,7500 = RM26,887.50


QUESTION 2
a)
X1 is the number of strawberry flavored cake
X2 is the number of chocolate flavored cake

Maximize Z = 1.1 X1 + 1.2 X2


Subject to :
0.3 X1 + 0.3 X2 ≤ 45
0.1 X1 ≤ 12
0.1 X2 ≤ 10
X1 , X2 ≥0

b)

i) Complete final simplex tableau

1.1 1.2 0 0 0
Cj Solution Mix Quantity
X1 X2 S1 S2 S3
1.1 X1 1 0 3.33 0 -10 50
0 S2 0 0 -0.33 1 1 7
1.2 X2 0 1 0 0 10 100
Zj 1.1 1.2 3.67 0 1
175
Cj - Zj 0 0 -3.67 0 -1

ii) Maximum total profit = RM175

iii) No alternative optimal solution since non basic variable in Cj - Zj row are not equal to zero.

iv) S1 = 0 , S2 = 0
S1 and S2 are fully utilized

v) y1 = 3.67, should pay at most RM3.67 for an additional unit of first resource.
y2 = 1, should pay at most RM1 for an additional unit of third resource.
QUESTION 3

a)

Step 1 : Check balance problem


Total demand = 130
Balance
Total supply = 130

Step 2: Set up initial transportation cost and find initial solution

VA =12 VB=4 VC=9 VD=5


DW DX DY DZ SUPPLY

12 4 9 5
U1=0 PA 10 25 20 55
-10 0 +10
8 1 6 6
U2=-3 PB 20 25 45
-1 +10 -10 4
1 12 4 7
U3=-11 PC 30 30
19 6 13

DEMAND 40 20 50 20

Total initial cost = RM645

Step 3: Find optimal solution

Check condition of MODI : m+n-1 = no of allocations = 6

Based on the table above, the solution is not optimal since not all kij ≥ 0. Continue to
improve the solution.
Step 4: Improve the solution

VA =12 VB=4 VC=9 VD=5


DW DX DY DZ SUPPLY
12 4 9 5
U1=0 PA 35 20 55
1 0
8 1 6 6
U2=-3 PB 10 20 15 45
4
1 12 4 7
U3=-10 PC 30 30
18 5 12

DEMAND 40 20 50 20

The solution is now optimal since all kij ≥ 0.

Optimal solution:

From To Units RM per Total cost


unit
PA DY 35 9 315
PA DZ 20 5 100
PB DW 10 8 80
PB DX 20 1 20
PB DY 15 6 90
PC DW 30 1 30

TOTAL COST RM635

b) The transportation problem has alternative optimal solution since there is improvement index
of zero value.
QUESTION 4

a)
Activity Expected time Variance

b  a
a + 4m + b 2
t=
6 σ 2

 6 
A 4 0.1111
B 3 0
C 3 0.1111
D 3 0.4444
E 4 0
F 2 0
G 5 0.1111
H 4 0.1111

b)
S=4
F 7
S=0 9 FINISH
2 14 16

S=0 S=0 S=0 S=0 S=0


A 0 4 C 4 7 E 7 11 G 11 16 H 16 20
4 0 4 3 4 7 4 7 11 5 11 16 4 16 20

START

S=5 S=5
B 0
S=4 3 D 3
S=4 6
3 5
S=0
S=0 8 3 8
S=0
S=0 11

c) Critical path : A – C – E – G – H
Expected project completion time = 20 months
22−20
d) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 22) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 0.6666) = 𝑃(𝑍 ≤ 3.003)

= 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 ≥ 3.003)
= 1 − 0.00135
= 0.99865/0.9987
QUESTION 5

Cum.
Demand Probability RN Interval
Probability
50 0.2 0.20 1 - 20
100 0.4 0.60 21 - 60
150 0.3 0.90 61 - 90
200 0.1 1.0 91 - 00

Cum.
Lead time Probability RN Interval
Probability
1 0.4 0.40 1 – 40
2 0.25 0.65 41 - 65
3 0.35 1.0 66 - 00

Simulation
Unit Beginning Ending Lost Lead
Month RN1 Demand Order? RN2
received inventory inventory sales time
1 - 255 65 150 105 0 N - -
2 - 105 05 50 55 0 Y 35 1
3 - 55 20 50 5 0 N - -
4 200 205 55 100 105 0 N - -
5 - 105 95 200 0 95 Y 50 2
6 - 0 01 50 0 50 N - -
7 - 0 30 100 0 100 N - -
8 200 200 15 50 150 0 N - -
9 - 150 45 100 50 0 Y 00 3
10 - 50 10 50 0 0 N - -
11 - 0 59 100 0 100 N - -
12 - 0 80 150 0 150 N - -
1150 470 495

a) Yes. The forecast demand for the next year should be more than 900 bags
b) Profit = SP – Ch – Cs – Co
SP = (1150 – 495) x 25 = RM16,375
Profit = 16,375 – (470 x 2) – (495 x 5) – (3 x 50) = RM12,810

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