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ANSWER: The main military tension in the Asia‐Pacific is taking place in Northeast
Asia and involves North Korea’s belligerence and quite separately Chinese
assertiveness in the East Sea. Both South Korea and Japan are responding by building
up their defensive military capabilities. China’s military modernization and
assertiveness in the South China Sea have triggered some nations to procure
submarines in order to develop anti‐access/area‐denial capabilities. Singapore was
first to modernize its submarine fleet. In 2009 Australia announced a major
acquisition program of 12 conventional submarines. Malaysia has followed suit, and
then Indonesia. Vietnam joined in with its announcement of the purchase of the
Kilo‐class conventional submarines. None of these acquisition programs contain
elements of an arms race.
4. In 2010, the issue of East Sea disputes has been addressed in many talks but
there is likely no viable solution reached. What would be your advice for Vietnam to
reaffirm its sovereignty over Hoang Sa (Paracel) and Truong Sa (Spratly) archipelagos
while maintaining peace in the region?
ANSWER: Vietnam must pursue a multi‐dimensional policy. First, it must continue to
protest at the actions by any country to assert territorial claims over which Vietnam
claims sovereignty. This is necessary because silence is viewed as acquiescence to
the other side’s claim in international law. Second, Vietnam must continuously
engage with China at a high‐level to resolve this matter. The various issues at stake
should be broken down individually and dealt with one by one, starting from the less
difficult. Third, Vietnam must engage multilaterally with all claimant states in order
to keep the South China Sea peaceful by avoiding acts that upset the status quo. All
claimant states agreed to the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China
Sea yet no country has implemented its provisions. Vietnam must press
diplomatically for the confidence building measures in the DOC to be implemented.
The next step is to press for the early conclusion of a code of conduct by the China‐
ASEAN Joint Working Group on the South China Sea. Fourth, Vietnam must also work
diplomatically with other countries that have an interest in the security of the
commons – international waterways in the South China Sea. the opening of Cam
Ranh Bay is one step forward, next Vietnam could conduct search and rescue
exercise and even naval passage exercises with foreign navies that transit the South
China Sea. Fifth, Vietnam must consider a national information program to highlight
developments in the South China Sea both to a domestic and foreign audience.
Vietnam could issue an annual report on the South China Sea.
5. In a recent interview with Thanh Nien, Vietnamese deputy defense minister
Nguyen Chi Vinh said that Vietnam would seek for peaceful solutions to reaffirm its
sovereignty over the archipelagos. Among these solutions, Vietnam would
strengthen friendship and improve mutual understandings in the region for better
negotiations. Supposed that Vietnam already has good “friendship and mutual
understandings” with regional countries, would a stronger defense consolidate its
position on the negotiation table?
ANSWER: Military power is one element of comprehensive national power. If
Vietnam does not have the means to protect its territorial integrity or to back up its
sovereignty claims other nations will take advantage of this at Vietnam’s expense.
Effective diplomacy must always be backed up by appropriate means. Without
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sufficient military power Vietnam cannot be an effective negotiator with more
powerful states. But Vietnam needs to develop a stronger capacity to patrol its own
territorial waters and to control its fishing fleet. This is more of a civilian task than a
military one.
6. Any further comments would be appreciated.
ANSWER: Vietnam needs allies and supporters in the international community.
Vietnam should work tirelessly with its ASEAN partners to maintain a united front on
the South China Sea. this year Vietnam should work especially closely with Indonesia
as ASEAN Chair.
Military modernization is very expensive. It is one thing to acquire new frigates,
multirole jet fighters (Su‐30s), Kilo‐class submarines and anti‐shipping ballistic
missiles, but it is another thing to effective integrate these new capabilities into
Vietnam’s existing force structure. Also the on‐going costs of maintenance and
upgrading will prove costly. Vietnam must give serious thought to restructuring its
military forces to give priority to the navy and air defence‐air force, and perhaps
reducing the size of the standing army. Finally Vietnam should review the roles and
missions assigned to the military with a view to divesting the military of non‐
essential mission and roles. The Border Guard, for example, could be turned over to
another ministry. Military enterprises, which were slated for equitization, should be
turned over to civilian control. Vietnam’s military must concentrate on being modern
and professional.