Días   Demanda  Método 1  Método 2 Et M1 (erroEt M2 (erroABS (Et) 1 ABS (Et) 2 ET^2 M1

1 2000 3500 3200 -1500 -1200 1500 1200 2250000

2 1200 1150 1200 50 0 50 0 2500
 3 3200 3200 2890 0 310 0 310 0
4 2300 1900 2000 400 300 400 300 160000
5 3000 3150 3300 -150 -300 150 300 22500
6 1500 1240 1350 260 150 260 150 67600
7 1900 2000 1780 -100 120 100 120 10000
8 2350 2800 2600 -450 -250 450 250 202500
9 1630 1560 1790 70 -160 70 160 4900
10 3290 3500 3450 -210 -160 210 160 44100
11 2200 1900 1990 300 210 300 210 90000
12 2030 2000 1980 30 50 30 50 900
13 2410 2560 2700 -150 -290 150 290 22500
14 1080 1000 1120 80 -40 80 40 6400
15 1000 890 900 110 100 110 100 12100
16 3460 3670 3380 -210 80 210 80 44100
17 3500 3780 3670 -280 -170 280 170 78400
18 3860 3670 3790 190 70 190 70 36100
19 2530 2340 2450 190 80 190 80 36100
20 2060 2000 2130 60 -70 60 70 3600
21 1680 1780 1690 -100 -10 100 10 10000
22 1970 2000 2100 -30 -130 30 130 900
23 2040 2100 2220 -60 -180 60 180 3600
24 2570 2460 2670 110 -100 110 100 12100
SUMA -1390 -1590 5090 4530 3120900

N= 24

Metodo 1 Metodo 2
DAM(Desvia 212.08 188.75
EMC= 130037.50 88329.17
PEMA= 9.91% 100.23%
PME= -1.88% 98.52%
desv. 265.10 235.94

Con base en la información anterior, para cada uno de los métodos de pronóstico, calcule:
a. Los errores de los pronósticos. Grafíquelos.
b. La desviación absoluta media(DAM).
c. El error cuadrático medio(ECM).
d. El error porcentual absoluto medio(EPAM).
e. Compare la efectividad de los métodos,¿cuál es mejor?
Es mejor el metodo 1 por que por que tanto en el porcentaje medio de error como en el porcentaje de error medio absoluto e
 ET^2 M2 ABS (Et)/yt ABS (Et)/yt Et/yt M1 Et/yt M2
1440000 0.75 0.5714286 -0.75 0.625
0 0.0416667 1.0434783 0.0416667 1
96100 0 1 0 1.1072664
90000 0.173913 1.2105263 0.173913 1.15
90000 0.05 0.952381 -0.05 0.9090909
22500 0.1733333 1.2096774 0.1733333 1.1111111
14400 0.0526316 0.95 -0.052632 1.0674157
4500
62500 0.1914894 0.8392857 -0.191489 0.9038462
25600 0.0429448 1.0448718 0.0429448 0.9106145 4000
25600 0.0638298 0.94 -0.06383 0.9536232 3500
44100 0.1363636 1.1578947 0.1363636 1.1055276
2500 0.0147783 1.015 0.0147783 1.0252525 3000

84100 0.0622407 0.9414063 -0.062241 0.8925926 2500

1600 0.0740741 1.08 0.0740741 0.9642857
2000
10000 0.11 1.1235955 0.11 1.1111111
6400 0.0606936 0.9427793 -0.060694 1.0236686 1500
28900 0.08 0.9259259 -0.08 0.9536785 1000
4900 0.0492228 1.0517711 0.0492228 1.0184697
6400 0.0750988 1.0811966 0.0750988 1.0326531 500

4900 0.0291262 1.03 0.0291262 0.9671362 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2
100 0.0595238 0.9438202 -0.059524 0.9940828
16900 0.0152284 0.985 -0.015228 0.9380952
32400 0.0294118 0.9714286 -0.029412 0.9189189
10000 0.0428016 1.0447154 0.0428016 0.9625468
2119900 2.3783723 24.056183 -0.451726 23.645987

aje de error medio absoluto es menor. No obstante en la desviación absoluta mecia y el error cuaratico medio es mayor.
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Días   Demanda pronostico 1 pronostico 2 Et M1 (errorEt M2 (errorABS (Et) 1 ABS (Et) 2
1 1265 1265 1265.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 1020 922.00 873.00 98.00 147.00 98.00 147.00
 3 1042 1090.00 1143.40 -48.00 -101.40 48.00 101.40
4 1113 1122.20 1094.76 -9.20 18.24 9.20 18.24
5 955 888.12 871.14 66.88 83.86 66.88 83.86
6 1019 1071.35 1107.71 -52.35 -88.71 52.35 88.71
7 1187 1233.26 1234.57 -46.26 -47.57 46.26 47.57
8 1023 938.90 896.06 84.10 126.94 84.10 126.94
9 1056 1102.84 1151.97 -46.84 -95.97 46.84 95.97
10 953 893.06 833.62 59.94 119.38 59.94 119.38
11 1104 1188.37 1266.23 -84.37 -162.23 84.37 162.23
12 1139 1119.25 1062.66 19.75 76.34 19.75 76.34
SUMA 41.642815 75.876235 615.69743 1067.6343

N= 24

Metodo 1 Metodo 2
DAM(Desvia 25.65 44.48
EMC= 1738.14 5046.22
PEMA= 2.48% 50.43%
PME= 0.26% 50.91%
desv. 32.07 55.61
ET^2 M1 ET^2 M2 ABS (Et)/yt ABS (Et)/yt Et/yt M1 Et/yt M2
0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00
9604.00 21609.00 0.10 1.11 0.10 1.17
2304.00 10281.96 0.05 0.96 -0.05 0.91
84.64 332.70 0.01 0.99 -0.01 1.02
4472.93 7031.83 0.07 1.08 0.07 1.10
2740.73 7870.10 0.05 0.95 -0.05 0.92
2139.91 2263.08 0.04 0.96 -0.04 0.96
7073.43 16114.55 0.08 1.09 0.08 1.14
2194.12 9209.45 0.04 0.96 -0.04 0.92
3592.39 14251.47 0.06 1.07 0.06 1.14
7119.08 26317.83 0.08 0.93 -0.08 0.87
390.06 5827.28 0.02 1.02 0.02 1.07
41715.303 121109.25 0.5940172 12.103849 0.0630925 12.219287

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
9 10 11 12
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 1
Coeficiente d 1
R^2 ajustado 1
Error típico 1.04805E-14
Observacione 27

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 42149.4833 42149.48330502 3.8373E+32 0
Residuos 25 2.74602E-27 1.09840992442974E-28
Total 26 42149.4833

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 25.4 4.14868E-15 6122428274793630 0 25.4 25.4
Variable X 1 5.0727 2.58956E-16 1.95890738477418E+016 0 5.0727 5.0727

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico para YResiduos
1 30.4727 7.10543E-15
2 35.5454 7.10543E-15
3 40.6181 7.10543E-15
4 45.6908 0
5 50.7635 7.10543E-15
6 55.8362 7.10543E-15
7 60.9089 7.10543E-15
8 65.9816 1.42109E-14
9 71.0543 1.42109E-14
10 76.127 1.42109E-14
11 81.1997 1.42109E-14
12 86.2724 1.42109E-14
13 91.3451 1.42109E-14
14 96.4178 0
15 101.4905 0
16 106.5632 0
17 111.6359 0
18 116.7086 0
19 121.7813 1.42109E-14
20 126.854 1.42109E-14
21 131.9267 2.84217E-14
22 136.9994 2.84217E-14
23 142.0721 2.84217E-14
24 147.1448 2.84217E-14
25 152.2175 0
26 157.2902 2.84217E-14
27 162.3629 0
Inferior 95.0%
Superior 95.0%
25.4 25.4
5.0727 5.0727
Días   Demanda pronostico 1 pronostico 2 Et M1 (errorEt M2 (errorABS (Et) 1 ABS (Et) 2
1 28.2 30.4727 -713.88 -2.27 742.08 2.27 742.08
2 38.4 35.5454 489.77 2.85 -451.37 2.85 451.37
3 41.6 40.6181 -227.30 0.98 268.90 0.98 268.90
4 44.8 45.6908 208.06 -0.89 -163.26 0.89 163.26
5 50 50.7635 -44.84 -0.76 94.84 0.76 94.84
6 58.2 55.8362 120.02 2.36 -61.82 2.36 61.82
7 57.4 60.9089 19.83 -3.51 37.57 3.51 37.57
8 68.6 65.9816 97.86 2.62 -29.26 2.62 29.26
9 67.8 71.0543 49.76 -3.25 18.04 3.25 18.04
10 77 76.127 93.34 0.87 -16.34 0.87 16.34
11 82.2 81.1997 75.51 1.00 6.69 1.00 6.69
12 86.2724 -86.27 0.00 86.27 0.00
13 91.3451 -91.35 0.00 91.35 0.00
14 96.4178 -96.42 0.00 96.42 0.00
15 101.4905 -101.49 0.00 101.49 0.00
16 106.5632 -106.56 0.00 106.56 0.00
17 111.6359 -111.64 0.00 111.64 0.00
18 116.7086 -116.71 0.00 116.71 0.00
19 121.7813 -121.78 0.00 121.78 0.00
20 126.854 -126.85 0.00 126.85 0.00
21 131.9267 -131.93 0.00 131.93 0.00
22 136.9994 -137.00 0.00 137.00 0.00
23 142.0721 -142.07 0.00 142.07 0.00
24 147.1448 -147.14 0.00 147.14 0.00
25 152.2175 -152.22 0.00 152.22 0.00
26 157.2902 -157.29 0.00 157.29 0.00
27 162.3629 -162.36 0.00 162.36 0.00
SUMA -1989.08 446.06 2010.46 1890.17

N= 24

Metodo 1 Metodo 2
DAM(Desvia 83.77 78.76
EMC= 10669.99 36212.44
PEMA= #DIV/0! 45.82%
PME= #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
desv. 104.71 98.45
ET^2 M1 ET^2 M2 ABS (Et)/yt ABS (Et)/yt Et/yt M1 Et/yt M2
5.17 550682.73 0.08 0.93 -0.08 -0.04
8.15 203733.07 0.07 1.08 0.07 0.08
0.96 72307.64 0.02 1.02 0.02 -0.18
0.79 26653.98 0.02 0.98 -0.02 0.22
0.58 8993.92 0.02 0.98 -0.02 -1.12
5.59 3821.93 0.04 1.04 0.04 0.48
12.31 1411.74 0.06 0.94 -0.06 2.90
6.86 856.37 0.04 1.04 0.04 0.70
10.59 325.38 0.05 0.95 -0.05 1.36
0.76 267.09 0.01 1.01 0.01 0.82
1.00 44.70 0.01 1.01 0.01 1.09   Demanda
7442.93 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 90
8343.93 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
80
9296.39 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! f(x) = 5.07272727272727 x + 25.4
70 R² = 0.981700549866317
10300.32 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
11355.72 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 60
12462.57 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 50
13620.90 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 40
14830.69 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
30
16091.94 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
20
17404.65 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
18768.84 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 10

20184.48 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0

0 2 4 6
21651.59 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
23170.17 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
24740.21 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
26361.71 0.00 #DIV/0! 0.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
256079.79 869098.56 #DIV/0! 11.00 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
   Demanda

.07272727272727 x + 25.4
981700549866317

4 6 8 10 12