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Y X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6

Krt. Nr. Jahr Bevölkerung insgesamt


Ländliche Bevölkerung
Städtische Bevölkerung
BIP (aktuelleDas
USBIP
$) pro Kopf (aktuelle US
GNI$)(current US$)
1 1987 8765875 3358522 5503013 20039627960 11422 19722533929
2 1988 8891117 3325011 5566106 20056236992 11544 19856669575
3 1989 8917457 3290185 5627272 19804095112 11889 19645938119
4 1990 8939738 3253796 5685942 16959385509 11632 16878327489
5 1991 8960679 3216973 5743706 17411159923 12017 17372952117
6 1992 8960547 3172930 5787617 17562123350 11643 17497791452
7 1993 8958171 3135449 5822722 20261212467 11916 20129664497
8 1994 8971359 3108935 5862424 28429027976 11903 28111206956
9 1995 8981446 3081354 5900092 23002458745 11875 22573124626
10 1996 8876972 3015064 5861908 21746812560 11942 21117032358
11 1997 8718289 2931350 5786939 20726301370 11334 19082648402
12 1998 8632367 2873111 5759256 10943548724 11934 9832580948
13 1999 8540164 2813472 5726692 10371900499 12051 10201807530
14 2000 8472313 2767905 5704408 10831999517 12064 10639277625
15 2001 8443591 2739354 5704237 9704877673 12207 9512277581
16 2002 8406067 2708267 5697800 13069094969 12401 12637094969
17 2003 8362826 2675519 5687307 10110256626 1098 9714156337
18 2004 8312068 2640661 5671407 11195830237 11142 10838930179
19 2005 8256786 2604686 5652100 14631307233 11805 14347807210
20 2006 8210624 2571814 5638810 13659823835 1258 13475123816
21 2007 8170172 2541005 5629167 13353530517 13625 13030130533
22 2008 8020282 2472974 5547308 14303810795 14299 14328710793
23 2009 7868468 2397994 5470474 16343311507 14929 16686811507
24 2010 7823557 2356534 5467023 21101364345 15299 21445164368
25 2011 7781161 2316218 5464943 25919754936 15918 26225260999
26 2012 7739900 2276769 5463131 29300588273 16485 29384093006
27 2013 7699020 2237951 5461069 33649638299 16991 32798571154
intervallprognose 2014 7,732,268 2,243,177 5,538,107 19,226,250,477 12,290 17,969,600,282
2015 7,647,497 2,181,583 5,504,415 19,530,675,344 12,414 17,987,906,291
Bevölkerung insgesamt Ländliche Bevölkerung Städtische Bevölkerung BIP (aktuelle US $)

Mean 8469667.25926 Mean 2810511.2222 Mean 5662699 Mean 17944039998.1111


Standard Error 84434.9718694 Standard Error 67517.52539 Standard Error 25723.5147869 Standard Error 1221670105.17295
Median 8472313 Median 2767905 Median 5685942 Median 17411159923
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A Mode #N/A Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 438736.98364 Standard Deviati 350831.35313 Standard Deviatio 133663.30368 Standard Deviat6347984076.74271
Sample Variance 192490140814 Sample Variance 123082638338 Sample Variance 17865878750.8 Sample Varianc 4.0296901839E+19
Kurtosis -1.1728331736 Kurtosis -1.245824761 Kurtosis -0.92769620115 Kurtosis 0.0537652309811
Skewness -0.4004351718 Skewness -0.008831411 Skewness -0.10359764784 Skewness 0.7158296445363
Range 1282426 Range 1120571 Range 439023 Range 23944760626
Minimum 7699020 Minimum 2237951 Minimum 5461069 Minimum 9704877673
Maximum 8981446 Maximum 3358522 Maximum 5900092 Maximum 33649638299
Sum 228681016 Sum 75883803 Sum 152892873 Sum 484489079949
Count 27 Count 27 Count 27 Count 27
Varianz Coeff 0.05180097048 Varianz Coeff 0.1248283054 Varianz Coeff 0.02360416891 Varianz Coeff 0.3537656000216

Das BIP pro Kopf US $) GNI (current US$) Korrelationskoeffizienten


Ländliche+Städische 0.6179142524304
Mean 11949 Mean 17669840299 Bevolk. Total in vergleich mit Landliche Bevolk 0.9687897941613
Standard Error 679.60085906 Standard Error 1223540013 Bevolk. In vergleich mit dem Bip -0.1349315209065
Median 11934 Median 17372952117 Bip Total in vergleich mit Bip pro Kopf 0.4785707704728
Mode #N/A Mode #N/A
Standard Deviation 3531.30965028 Standard Deviati 6357700401 Das BIP pro Kopf (aktuelle
Sample Variance 12470147.8462 Sample Variance 4.042035E+19 20000
Kurtosis 5.49842394755 Kurtosis -0.08522309 15000
Skewness -2.0136734996 Skewness 0.6634908332
10000
Range 15893 Range 23286293573
Minimum 1098 Minimum 9512277581 5000
Maximum 16991 Maximum 32798571154 0
Sum 322623 Sum 477085688075 1 4 7 1 0 13 16 19 22 25
5000
0
1 4 7 1 0 13 16 19 22 25
Count 27 Count 27
Varianz Coeff 0.2955318144 Varianz Coeff 0.3598051988

Ländliche Bevölkerung BIP (aktuelle US $)


4000000 40000000000
3500000 35000000000
3000000 30000000000
2500000 Ländliche Bevölkerung 25000000000 BIP (aktuell
2000000 Linear (Ländliche 20000000000 Linear (BIP
Bevölkerung) $))
1500000 15000000000
1000000 10000000000
500000 5000000000
0 0
1 4 7 1 0 13 16 1 9 2 2 25 1 4 7 10 1 3 16 19 2 2 25

Städtische Bevölkerung Bevölkerung insgesamt


6000000 9500000
5900000
9000000
5800000

5700000 Städtische Bevölkerung 8500000 Bevölkeru


5600000 Linear (Städtische Linear (Be
Bevölkerung) insgesamt
5500000 8000000

5400000
7500000
5300000

5200000 7000000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 1 4 7 1 0 13 16 1 9 2 2 25
5400000
7500000
5300000

5200000 7000000
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 1 4 7 1 0 13 16 1 9 2 2 25
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Lineare Einfachregression


Multiple R 0.12079606527676 BIP+Bevölkerung
R Square 0.014591689386347
Adjusted R Square -0.024824643038199
Standard Error 6426294269.81577
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.52879967463773E+19 1.5287996746377E+19 0.370193990378982 0.54838729659034
Residual 25 1.03243145105668E+21 4.1297258042267E+19
Total 26 1.04771944780305E+21

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value


Intercept 32747073452.1331 24361073049.613 1.3442377265337 0.190943517915871
Bevölkerung insgesamt -1747.77036699275 2872.56384223721 -0.608435691243522 0.548387296590335
Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-17425495679.9842 82919642584.2504 -17425495679.9842 82919642584.2504
-7663.92634532543 4168.38561133994 -7663.92634532543 4168.38561133994
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted BIP (aktuelle US $) Residuals


1 17426336886.3706 2613291073.62942
2 17207442630.0677 2848794361.93233
3 17161406358.6011 2642688753.39892
4 17122464287.0541 -163078778.054115
5 17085864227.7989 325295695.20108
6 17086094933.4874 476028416.512638
7 17090247635.8793 3170964831.12066
8 17067198040.2794 11361829935.7206
9 17049568280.5876 5952890464.41242
10 17232164841.9088 4514647718.09122
11 17509506287.0543 3216795082.94571
12 17659678212.527 -6716129488.52704
13 17820827883.6749 -7448927384.67487
14 17939415850.8457 -7107416333.8457
15 17989615311.3265 -8284737638.32647
16 18055198646.5775 -4986103677.5775
17 18130773985.0166 -8020517359.01663
18 18219487313.3045 -7023657076.30445
19 18316107554.7325 -3684800321.73254
20 18396788130.4137 -4736964295.41367
21 18467488937.2993 -5113958420.29926
22 18729462237.6078 -4425651442.6078
23 18994798248.1024 -2651486741.10243
24 19073292363.0544 2028071981.94556
25 19147390835.5335 6772364100.46653
26 19219505588.646 10081082684.354
27 19290954441.2486 14358683857.7514

Werte der Parameter


a=32747073452 y=a+ bx
b=-1747.770366 y=32747073452-1747.770366X

Gultigkeit des Modells


Signifikanz der Parameter F berechnet 0.37019399
t teoretic 2.06 F teoretic 4.24169905027715
t berechnet 1.344237727
H0: a=0(a ist nicht signifi tcalc<t teoretic => H0, a nicht signifikant F berechnet < F teoretic => Modell ist nicht gültig
H1: a/=0(a ist signifikant)
Autokorellation
0<DW<D1 D1<=DW<=D2 D2<DW<4-D2 4-D2<=DW<=4-D1 4-D1<DW<4
0<DW<1.28 1.35<=DW<=1.49 1.49<DW<2.51 2.51<=DW<=2.65 2.65<DW<4
3.17E-01
Sum of Square residuals 1.03E+21 Positive Autokorellation
Sum of Square difference o 3.27E+20
DW 3.17E-01 d1=1.35 und d2=1.49

Normalverteilung-Jarque Berra Formel:JB=N[S^2/6+ (K-3)^2/24)]


JBt=5.99 H0=JB theoretic < JB berechnet
H1=JB theoretic >JB berechnet
Die Residuen sind nicht normal verteilt,wir akzeptieren H1

Jarque Berra : Skew 0.526652704989527


Skew * Skew 0.277363071672786
(S *S) / 6 0.046227178612131
Kurt -0.459277275542597
K-3 -3.4592772755426
(k -3)(k -3) -1.428586662878E+20
[(k -3)(k -3)] / 24 -5.95244442866E+18
JB -1.607159995738E+20

White Test H0-Homoskedastisch-> LM < Chi quadrat


H1-Heteroskedastisch-> LM> Chi quadrat CHI quadrat=5.99

LM= n* R quadrat 0.393975613431374


LM< CHI akzeptieren H0
BIP (aktuelle US $)
40000000000

35000000000

30000000000

25000000000
BIP (aktuelle US $)
Linear (BIP (aktuelle US $))
20000000000

15000000000

10000000000

5000000000

0
7600000 7800000 8000000 8200000 8400000 8600000 8800000 9000000 9200000
Residuals
2613291073.62942 6.82929023551E+18 2.61E+09
2848794361.93233 8.11562931658E+18 2.85E+09 2613291073.629 2.36E+08 5.55E+16
2642688753.39892 6.98380384734E+18 2.64E+09 2848794361.932 -2.06E+08 4.25E+16
-163078778.054115 2.65946878516E+16 -1.63E+08 2642688753.399 -2.81E+09 7.87E+18
325295695.20108 1.05817289316E+17 3.25E+08 -163078778.054 4.88E+08 2.39E+17
476028416.512638 2.26603053328E+17 4.76E+08 325295695.2011 1.51E+08 2.27E+16
3170964831.12066 1.00550179602E+19 3.17E+09 476028416.5126 2.69E+09 7.26E+18
11361829935.7206 1.29091179488E+20 1.14E+10 3170964831.121 8.19E+09 6.71E+19
5952890464.41242 3.54369048813E+19 5.95E+09 11361829935.72 -5.41E+09 2.93E+19
4514647718.09122 2.03820440185E+19 4.51E+09 5952890464.412 -1.44E+09 2.07E+18
3216795082.94571 1.03477706057E+19 3.22E+09 4514647718.091 -1.3E+09 1.68E+18
-6716129488.52704 4.51063953067E+19 -6.72E+09 3216795082.946 -9.93E+09 9.87E+19
-7448927384.67487 5.54865191822E+19 -7.45E+09 -6716129488.53 -7.33E+08 5.37E+17
-7107416333.8457 5.05153669426E+19 -7.11E+09 -7448927384.67 3.42E+08 1.17E+17
-8284737638.32647 6.86368777359E+19 -8.28E+09 -7107416333.85 -1.18E+09 1.39E+18
-4986103677.5775 2.48612298836E+19 -5E+09 -8284737638.33 3.3E+09 1.09E+19
-8020517359.01663 6.43286987063E+19 -8E+09 -4986103677.58 -3E+09 9.21E+18
-7023657076.30445 4.93317587255E+19 -7E+09 -8020517359.02 9.97E+08 9.94E+17
-3684800321.73254 1.3577753411E+19 -3.68E+09 -7023657076.3 3.34E+09 1.11E+19
-4736964295.41367 2.2438830736E+19 -4.74E+09 -3684800321.73 -1.05E+09 1.11E+18
-5113958420.29926 2.61525707245E+19 -5.11E+09 -4736964295.41 -3.77E+08 1.42E+17
-4425651442.6078 1.95863906915E+19 -4.43E+09 -5113958420.3 6.88E+08 4.74E+17
-2651486741.10243 7.03038193824E+18 -2.65E+09 -4425651442.61 1.77E+09 3.15E+18
2028071981.94556 4.11307596395E+18 2.03E+09 -2651486741.1 4.68E+09 2.19E+19
6772364100.46653 4.58649155093E+19 6.77E+09 2028071981.946 4.74E+09 2.25E+19
10081082684.354 1.01628228089E+20 1.01E+10 6772364100.467 3.31E+09 1.09E+19
14358683857.7514 2.06171802127E+20 1.44E+10 10081082684.35 4.28E+09 1.83E+19
1.03243145106E+21 14358683857.75 3.27E+20
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Lineare Einfachregression
Regression Statistics BIP+GNI
Multiple R 0.997791538946479
R Square 0.995587955193183
Adjusted R Square 0.995411473400911
Standard Error 430003960.385506
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 1.04309686E+21 1.04309686E+21 5641.30691541788 5.721581976418E-31
Residual 25 4.62258515E+18 1.84903406E+17
Total 26 1.04771945E+21

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 340167616.828075 248559251.4994 1.368557455721 0.183311260009838 -171749744.27851
GNI (current US$) 0.99626663757711 0.01326434237 75.10863409368 5.72158197641786E-31 0.96894821308875
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
852084977.9347 -171749744.27851 852084977.934661
1.023585062065 0.96894821308875 1.02358506206547
RESIDUAL OUTPUT

Observation Predicted BIP (aktuelle US $) Residuals


1 19989070178.7734 50557781.22664
2 20122705047.793 -66468055.793
3 19912760328.6922 -108665216.692
4 17155482192.2194 -196096683.219
5 17648260207.2198 -237100284.22
6 17772633471.7376 -210510121.738
7 20394680780.8096 -133468313.81
8 28346425249.1164 82602726.88355
9 22829018587.5821 173440157.4179
10 21378362439.7398 368450120.2602
11 19351573576.3548 1374727793.645
12 10136039976.5968 807508747.4032
13 10503888101.95 -131987602.95
14 10939724962.5362 -107725445.536
15 9816932418.15107 -112054745.151
16 12930083730.3363 139011238.6637
17 10018057487.5894 92199138.41056
18 11138632141.1935 57198095.80654
19 14634409262.5394 -3102029.53938
20 13764983911.9296 -105160076.93
21 13321651950.1308 31878566.86918
22 14615384139.385 -311573344.385
23 16964681208.79 -621369701.79
24 21705269414.0239 -603905069.024
25 26467520211.8839 -547765275.884
26 29614559154.1688 -313970881.169
27 33016289817.7572 633348481.2428

Werte der Parameter


a=340167616.8 y=a+ bx
b=0.996266638 y=340167616.8 +0.996266638X Gultigkeit des Modells
F berechnet 5641.306915
F teoretic 4.24169905027715
Signifikanz der Parameter
t teoretic 2.06 F berechnet > F teoretic
t berechnet 1.368557456 => Modell ist gultig
H0: a=0(a ist nicht signifikant)
H1: a/=0(a ist signifikant)
tcalc<t teoretic => H0, a nicht signifikant
Autokorellation
0<DW<D1 D1<=DW<=D2 D2<DW<4-D2 4-D2<=DW<=4-D1 4-D1<DW<4
0<DW<1.28 1.35<=DW<=1.49 1.49<DW<2.51 2.51<=DW<=2.65 2.65<DW<4
7.81E-01 Positive Autokorellation
Sum of Square residu 4.62E+18
Sum of Square differe 3.61E+18
DW 7.81E-01 d1=1.35 und d2=1.49

Normalverteilung-JFormel:JB=N[S^2/6+ (K-3)^2/24)]

H0=JB theoretic < JB berechnet


H1=JB theoretic >JB berechnet
Die Residuen sind normal verteilt,wir akzeptieren H0

Jarque Berra : Skew 1.502874263853


JBt=5.99 Skew * Skew 2.258631052951
(S *S) / 6 0.376438508825
Kurt 3.636484397181
K-3 0.636484397181
(k -3)(k -3) 0.405112387
[(k -3)(k -3)] / 24 0.016879682792
JB 10.61959117365

White Test H0-Homoskedastisch-> LM < Chi quadrat CHI quadrat=5.99


H1-Heteroskedastisch-> LM> Chi quadrat
LM= n* R quadrat 26.8808747902159
LM> CHI akzeptieren H1
GNI (current US$)
35000000000
f(x) = 0.996421143775355 x − 287247893.035275
30000000000 R² = 0.993317984416466

25000000000

GNI (current US$)


20000000000 Linear (GNI (current US$))
Linear (GNI (current US$))
15000000000

10000000000

5000000000

0
0 10000000000 20000000000 30000000000 40000000000
50557781.226635 2.5560892E+15 50557781
-66468055.7930183 4.4180024E+15 -66468056 50557781 -1.17E+08 1.37E+16
-108665216.692169 1.1808129E+16 -1.09E+08-66468056-42197161 1.78E+15
-196096683.219404 3.8453909E+16 -2E+08 -1.09E+08-87431467 7.64E+15
-237100284.219791 5.6216545E+16 -2.37E+08 -2E+08-41003601 1.68E+15
-210510121.737606 4.4314511E+16 -2.11E+08 -2.37E+08 26590162 7.07E+14
-133468313.809582 1.7813791E+16 -1.33E+08 -2.11E+08 77041808 5.94E+15
82602726.8835526 6.8232105E+15 82602727 -1.33E+08 2.16E+08 4.67E+16
173440157.417858 3.0081488E+16 1.73E+08 82602727 90837431 8.25E+15
368450120.260242 1.3575549E+17 3.68E+08 1.73E+08 1.95E+08 3.8E+16
1374727793.64518 1.8898765E+18 1.37E+09 3.68E+08 1.01E+09 1.01E+18
807508747.403217 6.5207038E+17 8.08E+08 1.37E+09 -5.67E+08 3.22E+17
-131987602.950012 1.7420727E+16 -1.32E+08 8.08E+08 -9.39E+08 8.83E+17
-107725445.536201 1.1604772E+16 -1.08E+08 -1.32E+08 24262157 5.89E+14
-112054745.151066 1.2556266E+16 -1.12E+08 -1.08E+08 -4329300 1.87E+13
139011238.663687 1.9324124E+16 1.39E+08 -1.12E+08 2.51E+08 6.3E+16
92199138.4105644 8.5006811E+15 92199138 1.39E+08-46812100 2.19E+15
57198095.8065357 3.2716222E+15 57198096 92199138-35001043 1.23E+15
-3102029.53938484 9622587263216 -3102030 57198096 -6E+07 3.64E+15
-105160076.929625 1.1058642E+16 -1.05E+08 -3102030 -1E+08 1.04E+16
31878566.8691845 1.016243E+15 31878567 -1.05E+08 1.37E+08 1.88E+16
-311573344.385025 9.7077949E+16 -3.12E+08 31878567 -3.43E+08 1.18E+17
-621369701.789986 3.8610031E+17 -6.21E+08 -3.12E+08 -3.1E+08 9.6E+16
-603905069.023876 3.6470133E+17 -6E+08 -6.21E+08 17464633 3.05E+14
-547765275.883915 3.000468E+17 -5.48E+08 -6E+08 56139793 3.15E+15
-313970881.168758 9.8577714E+16 -3.14E+08 -5.48E+08 2.34E+08 5.47E+16
633348481.242767 4.011303E+17 6.33E+08 -3.14E+08 9.47E+08 8.97E+17
4.6225851E+18 6.33E+08 3.61E+18
utokorellation
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics Mehrfachregression mit 3 exogene Variablen


Multiple R 0.999436412901863 Bevölkerung+Ländliche B, Städliche B.
R Square 0.998873143434144
Adjusted R Square 0.998779238720322
Standard Error 15329.2045007247
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 4999104032900.19 2499552016450.1 10637.0926739023 4.19E-36
Residual 24 5639628255.00089 234984510.62504
Total 26 5004743661155.19

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept -393252.785524035 140977.030129377 -2.78948127339 0.010174587735271 -684215.075230646
Ländliche Bevölkerung 0.964652262585024 0.010486481076078 91.990082811063 4.23E-32 0.943009229375568
Städtische Bevölkerung 1.08636430000006 0.027524281116679 39.469306951009 2.42E-23 1.0295569757935
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
-102290.49581742 -684215.075230646 -102290.495817423
0.9862952957945 0.943009229375568 0.98629529579448
RESIDUAL OUTPUT 1.1431716242066 1.0295569757935 1.14317162420662

Observation Predicted Bevölkerung insgesamt Residuals


1 8824829.92635376 -58954.9263537619
2 8861045.44716218 30071.5528378207
3 8893899.0262392 23557.9737608042
4 8922533.28853699 17204.7114630062
5 8949764.64569703 10914.3543029726
6 8954981.8088733 5565.19112670049
7 8956962.49617085 1208.50382914767
8 8974516.54151928 -3157.54151927494
9 8988831.63791732 -7385.63791731931
10 8883403.10499936 -6431.10499935597
11 8721204.56028261 -2915.56028260849
12 8634950.35424502 -2583.35424501821
13 8542043.09089151 -1879.09089150652
14 8473878.23918109 -1565.23918109387
15 8446150.68413673 -2559.68413672969
16 8409169.61225065 -3102.61225064844
17 8366179.95935561 -3353.95935561322
18 8315280.91841642 -3212.91841642372
19 8259603.11772983 -2817.11772982683
20 8213455.28700713 -2831.28700713161
21 8173259.50450425 -3087.5045042485
22 8018704.55119462 1577.44880537782
23 7862905.20991979 5562.79008020647
24 7819161.68391372 4395.31608628295
25 7778011.12555134 3149.87444866076
26 7737988.06633302 1911.93366697803
27 7698302.1116174 717.888382603414

Werte der Parameter


a= -393252.7855 y=a +b1x1+b2x2
b1= 0.964652263 y=-393252.7855 + 0.964652263X1+ 1.0863643X2
b2= 1.0863643

Signifikanz der Parameter Gultigkeit des Modells


t teoretic 2.06 F berechnet 10637.09267
t berechnet -2.7894812733 F teoretic 4.24169905027715
Signifikanz F
H0: a=0(a ist nicht signifikant) F berechnet > F teoretic => Modell ist gultig
H1: a/=0(a ist signifikant)
t th > t calc => H0(a ist nicht signifikant)
Autokorellation
0<DW<D1 D1<=DW<=D2 D2<DW<4-D2 4-D2<=DW<=4-D1 4-D1<DW<4
0<DW<1.28 1.28<=DW<=1.57 1.57<DW<2.43 2.43<=DW<=2.72 2.72<DW<4
1.45E+00
Sum of Square residuals 5.64E+09 Positive Autokorellation
Sum of Square difference of 8.19E+09 d1=1.28 d2=1.57

Normalverteilung-JarqFormel:JB=N[S^2/6+ (K-3)^2/24)]

H0=JB theoretic < JB berechnet


H1=JB theoretic >JB berechnet
Die Residuen sind normal verteilt,wir akzeptieren H0

Jarque Berra : Skew -2.063783601076


JBt=5.99 Skew * Skew 4.25920275207
(S *S) / 6 0.709867125345
Kurt 10.335512382711
K-3 7.335512382711
(k -3)(k -3) 53.809741916906
[(k -3)(k -3)] / 24 2.2420725798711
JB 79.702372040834

White Test H0-Homoskedastisch-> LM < Chi quadrat


H1-Heteroskedastisch-> LM> Chi quadrat

LM= n* R quadrat 26.9695748727219 LM> CHI akzeptieren H1

CHI quadrat=5.99
7000000

6000000

5000000

4000000
Ländliche Bevölkerung
Linear (Ländliche Bevölkerung)
Städtische Bevölkerung
3000000 Linear (Städtische Bevölkerung)

2000000

1000000

0
7500000 8000000 8500000 9000000 9500000
-58954.9263537619 3475683341.3775 -58954.926354
30071.5528378207 904298290.07784 30071.552838 -58954.92635 89026.4791916 7925713997
23557.9737608042 554978127.71474 23557.973761 30071.552838 -6513.579077 42426712.393
17204.7114630062 296002096.5253 17204.711463 23557.973761 -6353.2622978 40363941.825
10914.3543029726 119123129.85082 10914.354303 17204.711463 -6290.35716 39568593.201
5565.19112670049 30971352.276706 5565.1911267 10914.354303 -5349.1631763 28613546.686
1208.50382914767 1460481.5050646 1208.5038291 5565.1911267 -4356.6872976 18980724.209
-3157.54151927494 9970068.4459451 -3157.5415193 1208.5038291 -4366.0453484 19062351.984
-7385.63791731931 54547647.445745 -7385.6379173 -3157.541519 -4228.096398 17876799.151
-6431.10499935597 41359111.512741 -6431.1049994 -7385.637917 954.532917963 911133.09148
-2915.56028260849 8500491.7615241 -2915.5602826 -6431.104999 3515.54471675 12359054.655
-2583.35424501821 6673719.1552536 -2583.354245 -2915.560283 332.20603759 110360.85141
-1879.09089150652 3530982.5785428 -1879.0908915 -2583.354245 704.263353512 495986.8711
-1565.23918109387 2449973.6940314 -1565.2391811 -1879.090892 313.851710413 98502.896129
-2559.68413672969 6551982.8798256 -2559.6841367 -1565.239181 -994.44495564 988920.76979
-3102.61225064844 9626202.7778738 -3102.6122506 -2559.684137 -542.92811392 294770.93688
-3353.95935561322 11249043.359106 -3353.9593556 -3102.612251 -251.34710496 63175.367174
-3212.91841642372 10322844.750595 -3212.9184164 -3353.959356 141.040939189 19892.546527
-2817.11772982683 7936152.3037047 -2817.1177298 -3212.918416 395.800686597 156658.18351
-2831.28700713161 8016186.1167523 -2831.2870071 -2817.11773 -14.169277305 200.76841934
-3087.5045042485 9532684.0637548 -3087.5045042 -2831.287007 -256.21749712 65647.405829
1577.44880537782 2488344.7335879 1577.4488054 -3087.504504 4664.95330963 21761789.381
5562.79008020647 30944633.476444 5562.7900802 1577.4488054 3985.34127483 15882945.077
4395.31608628295 19318803.498338 4395.3160863 5562.7900802 -1167.4739939 1362995.5265
3149.87444866076 9921709.0423259 3149.8744487 4395.3160863 -1245.4416376 1551124.8727
1911.93366697803 3655490.3469241 1911.933667 3149.8744487 -1237.9407817 1532497.379
717.888382603414 515363.72987695 717.8883826 1911.933667 -1194.0452844 1425744.1411
5639628255.0009 717.8883826 8191688067
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Mehrfachregression mit 3 exogene Variablen
Regression Statistics Bevölkerung+BIP,BIP/Kopf,GNI
Multiple R 0.382895226326356
R Square 0.146608754343511
Adjusted R Square 0.035296852736143
Standard Error 430924.407129837
Observations 27

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 733739233970.545 244579744656.848 1.31709864108374 0.292949827712224
Residual 23 4271004427184.64 185695844660.202
Total 26 5004743661155.19

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 8791184.84875481 333190.415385114 26.3848671594998 1.06957486574546E-18 8101927.96024971
BIP (aktuelle US $) 0.000245654917543 0.000203268631727 1.20852349649906 0.239124705060466 -0.000174838284438
Das BIP pro Kopf (aktuelle U -32.8719714475257 27.8165987290246 -1.18173942715815 0.24938384318511 -90.4149901042952
GNI (current US$) -0.00024543357469 0.000204335923637 -1.20112787962716 0.241925243086576 -0.000668134638203
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
9480441.73725991 8101927.96024971 9480441.73725991
0.000666148119524 -0.000174838284438 0.000666148119524
RESIDUAL OUTPUT 24.6710472092438 -90.4149901042952 24.6710472092438
0.000177267488824 -0.000668134638203 0.000177267488824
Observation Predicted Bevölkerung insgesamt Residuals
1 8497982.34085906 267892.659140944
2 8465130.65963782 425986.340362184
3 8443570.51129347 473886.488706529
4 8432466.27526614 507271.724733859
5 8409393.68209857 551285.317901433
6 8428132.94338074 532414.056619264
7 8436253.40009027 521917.599909732
8 8484206.28384098 487152.716159023
9 8511294.62523519 470151.374764813
10 8558010.47352177 318961.526478231
11 8826609.16654274 -108320.166542742
12 8673981.8104312 -41614.8104311973
13 8439086.99230514 101077.007694865
14 8444315.39376915 27997.606230855
15 8439335.3276775 4255.67232250236
16 8492459.58587374 -86392.5858737417
17 8854545.56702203 -491719.567022026
18 8514998.71694089 -202930.716940893
19 8475950.18518041 -219164.185180413
20 8798186.99896891 -587562.99896891
21 8425633.16045959 -255461.160459593
22 8318203.2798058 -297921.279805805
23 8219750.22931433 -351282.229314327
24 8208567.12515389 -385010.125153888
25 8198684.51464264 -417523.514642642
26 8235281.01013783 -495381.010137834
27 8448985.74055026 -749965.740550255

Werte der Parameter


a=8791184.849 y=a+b1x1+b2x2+b3x3
b1=0.000245655 y=8791184.849+0.000245655x1-32.87197145x2-0.000245434x3
b2=-32.87197145
b3=-0.000245434 Gultigkeit des Modells
F berechnet 1.317098641
Signifikanz der Parameter F teoretic 4.24169905027715
t teoretic 2.06
t berechnet 26.38486716 F berechnet < F teoretic
H0: a=0(a ist nicht signifikant) => Modell ist nicht gultig
H1: a/=0(a ist signifikant)
t th < t calc => H1, a ist signifikant

Autokorellation
0<DW<D1 D1<=DW<=D2 D2<DW<4-D2 4-D2<=DW<=4-D1 4-D1<DW<4
0<DW<1.21 1.21<=DW<=1.65 1.65<DW<2.35 2.35<=DW<=2.79 2.79<DW<4
0.198629068830584
Sum of Square residuals 4.27E+12
Sum of Square difference of 8.48E+11 d1=1.21
DW 1.99E-01 d2=1.65

Normalverteilung-JarqueFormel:JB=N[S^2/6+ (K-3)^2/24)]

H0=JB theoretic < JB berechnet


H1=JB theoretic >JB berechnet
Die Residuen sind normal verteilt,wir akzeptieren H0

Jarque Berra : Skew -0.03441367463061


JBt=5.99 Skew * Skew 0.001184301001581
(S *S) / 6 0.000197383500264
Kurt -1.30497109966295
K-3 -4.30497109966295
(k -3)(k -3) 18.5327761689332
[(k -3)(k -3)] / 24 0.772199007038883
JB 20.854702544557

White Test H0-Homoskedastisch-> LM < Chi quadrat


H1-Heteroskedastisch-> LM> Chi quadrat

LM= n* R quadrat 3.9584363672748 LM< CHI akzeptieren H0

CHI quadrat=5.99
GNI (current US$)
35000000000
30000000000 GNI (current
25000000000 US$)
Linear (GNI
20000000000 (current
15000000000 US$))
10000000000
5000000000
0

Das BIP pro Kopf (aktuelle US $)


18000
16000
14000 Das BIP pro Kopf
12000 (aktuelle US $)
10000 Linear (Das BIP pro Kopf
8000 (aktuelle US $))
6000
4000
2000
0

BIP (aktuelle US $)
40000000000
35000000000
30000000000
25000000000
BIP (aktuelle
20000000000 US $)
15000000000
10000000000
5000000000
0
Residuals Square Residuals
267892.659141 71766476821.606 267892.6591
425986.340362 181464362175.17 425986.3404 267892.6591 158093.6812212 2.5E+10
473886.488707 224568404178.6 473886.4887 425986.3404 47900.14834435 2.29E+09
507271.724734 257324602714.47 507271.7247 473886.4887 33385.23602733 1.11E+09
551285.317901 303915501733.68 551285.3179 507271.7247 44013.59316757 1.94E+09
532414.056619 283464727685.78 532414.0566 551285.3179 -18871.2612822 3.56E+08
521917.59991 272397981095.54 521917.5999 532414.0566 -10496.4567095 1.1E+08
487152.716159 237317768861.11 487152.7162 521917.5999 -34764.8837507 1.21E+09
470151.374765 221042315193.24 470151.3748 487152.7162 -17001.3413942 2.89E+08
318961.526478 101736455373.32 318961.5265 470151.3748 -151189.848287 2.29E+10
-108320.16654 11733258479.848 -108320.1665 318961.5265 -427281.693021 1.83E+11
-41614.810431 1731792447.2245 -41614.81043 -108320.167 66705.35611155 4.45E+09
101077.007695 10216561484.548 101077.0077 -41614.8104 142691.8181261 2.04E+10
27997.6062309 783865954.65801 27997.60623 101077.0077 -73079.401464 5.34E+09
4255.6723225 18110746.916513 4255.672323 27997.60623 -23741.9339084 5.64E+08
-86392.585874 7463678893.9518 -86392.58587 4255.672323 -90648.2581962 8.22E+09
-491719.56702 241788132592.33 -491719.567 -86392.5859 -405326.981148 1.64E+11
-202930.71694 41180875878.145 -202930.7169 -491719.567 288788.8500811 8.34E+10
-219164.18518 48032940065.794 -219164.1852 -202930.717 -16233.4682395 2.64E+08
-587562.99897 345230277757.34 -587562.999 -219164.185 -368398.813788 1.36E+11
-255461.16046 65260404503.362 -255461.1605 -587562.999 332101.8385093 1.1E+11
-297921.27981 88757088961.129 -297921.2798 -255461.16 -42460.1193462 1.8E+09
-351282.22931 123399204632.04 -351282.2293 -297921.28 -53360.9495085 2.85E+09
-385010.12515 148232796471.01 -385010.1252 -351282.229 -33727.8958396 1.14E+09
-417523.51464 174325885279.55 -417523.5146 -385010.125 -32513.3894888 1.06E+09
-495381.01014 245402345205.18 -495381.0101 -417523.515 -77857.4954952 6.06E+09
-749965.74055 562448611999.09 -749965.7406 -495381.01 -254584.730412 6.48E+10
4271004427184.6 -749965.741 8.48E+11