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Abstract
The paper focuses on the growth and pattern in ownership and use of motorized vehicles
within the framework of sustainable development. There is a considerable evidence to
demonstrate that the current mega-trends in transport are at odds with the imperative of
maintaining ecological balance. An attempt has been made to substantiate the argument
from the empirical evidence available, especially in the Indian context. A variety of
policy strategies have been suggested to reconcile the economic objectives of transport
with the attendant environmental concerns.
INTRODUCTION
Recently, transport questions have increasingly been addressed in the context of
ecologically sustainable development (Banister and Button 1993, Button, Nijkamp and
Priemus1998). Transport is, today, positioned in the conflicting role between economic
and environmental interests. Transport, as an infrastructural support is a pre-requisite for
economic development. An efficient transport system enhances production and
consumption and promotes quality of life. A robust transport system improves the
accessibility of all the regions in a country, while simultaneously being consistent with
environmentally sustainable outcomes. Transport can promote production and
consumption but also has an intricate linkage with the environmental quality of these
economic activities. The environmental effects of transport itself are enormous. Transport
erodes the natural resource base of an economy besides polluting the environment in a
big way. Half of the current world oil production, for example, is consumed by motor
vehicles alone. The world over, energy use and transportation are the two main
contributors to ozone and green house gases, besides polluting urban air in a big way.
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Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Singapore had more than 50 cars per thousand, and the
numbers had crossed 100 per thousand for Tokyo. Delhi adds 500-700 vehicles everyday,
taking its vehicle population from 2.35 lakhs in 1975 to 37 lakhs in 2004, the increase
being heavily skewed in favour of cars and two wheelers. The number of cars which was
only 1.57 lakhs in 1984-85 rose to 8.41 lakhs in 1998-99 and is expected to cross the 25
lakh mark by 2009-10. India, not only, now produces three times the number of cars it
made eight years ago, but the number of models has increased ten fold over as many
years. For the Indian consumer, the options to acquire a car keep getting better. From a
three model line-up in the 1980’s, the market has now exploded with new choices coming
up every day. Today, a new car model is being introduced every couple of months, fastest
growing segment being luxury cars. Table 1 shows the rapid growth of registered vehicles
in India from a meager 0.3 million in 1951 to 60 million in 2002.
Table1-Total Number of Registered motor vehicles in INDIA (in thousands)
Cars, jeeps 159 310 682 1160 2954 6143 7058 7571
and taxis
Source: Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (2000), Motor Transport Statistics of
India1999-2000.
There is, however, an intricate link between economic growth and transport
behavior which explains current mega-trends in mobility patterns (See Table 2).
Historical data suggests that, throughout the world, traffic volume (motorized mobility)
grows in tandem with the increase in personal income. As average income increases, the
annual distance traveled per capita increases more or less in the same proportion. In
OECD Europe, on an average, one point increase in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) has
been accompanied by an increase of about two points increase in road freight mobility
and one and a half points increase in private car traffic. The developing countries of Asia
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exhibit a similar trend. It is not surprising that Delhi, which has the highest per capita
income in the country, accounts for a vehicle population equal to the combined strength
of Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai. It is observed that, on an average, people devote a
predictable fraction of their income to transportation. In developing countries, this
fraction is typically around 3-5 percent, where people rely more on non-motorised
transport. The fraction tends to rise with automobile ownership, stabalising at 10 to 15
percent The industrial nations belonging to OECD have already completed this
automobile transition. In future, developing countries will contribute a rising share to
global traffic volume as their average income is expected to grow faster than those of
OECD nations.
In India, the sale of passenger cars has already crossed the one million mark in the
annual domestic market, which is growing at the rate of 20 to 30 per cent. However, the
trend can not be explained solely by the growth of the economy, which is booming only
at rate of only 6-7 per cent. The phenomenon has emerged primarily due to spurt in the
income of the rich, reduction in taxes and duties on cars, softening of interest rates and
easier availability of bank loans to both rural and urban sectors. According to CSO
estimates the retail loans as a percentage of disposable income have increased from 3.5-4
per cent in the year 2000 to 8 per cent in March 2004.
Even though many countries have tried to manage transport within the confines of
ecological boundaries, it has been more than offset with a structural rise in spatial
mobility. In most countries not only road traffic has more than doubled in past two
decades but the trend is particularly skewed in favour of private cars, and trucks. Since
1970 fleet of road vehicles in the world has averaged 4.7 per cent for cars and 5.1 per
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cent for trucks. Table 1 gives the break up of different modes of transport and their
growth in India from 1951 onwards which exhibits a phenomenal increase in favour of
private vehicles. Delhi has witnessed an unprecedented increase in private car ownership
and mobility in last one decade and a half and the trend continues unabated. More than 91
per cent of on road transport traffic in Delhi, 88 per cent in Banglore and 83 per cent in
Kolkata consist of cars and two wheelers, buses constitute only 1, 1 and 2 per cent
respectively. In spite of a sharp increase in the number of cars in Delhi, for example, their
importance in meeting travel demand is insignificant compared to that of buses and two
wheelers.(see table3 )
In Western Europe, the share of buses and railways which accounted for 70 per
cent of the total traffic volume came down to a meager 15 per cent in 1997. The scenario
has a unique structural dimension in South Asia. Public transport in the region meets very
high level of travel demand of its people despite extremely decrepit and ill-maintained
vehicles in its fleet. In Delhi, buses meet 64 per cent of the travel demand of the
commuters even though they form less than 1 per cent of the total vehicular fleet. In
Mumbai, buses account for 59 per cent of all trips in the city, and use only 5 per cent of
the road capacity. While in 1957, the most eco-friendly mode, namely bicycle, met 36 per
cent of travel demand in Delhi, it declined to 17 per cent in 1981 and then dramatically to
just 6.61 per cent in 1994.
Table-3 Meeting Travel Demand in Delhi-Mode Wise (in per cent) Year
Mode 1957 1969 1981 1994
Cycle 36 28.01 17 6.61
Scooter/M-cycle 1.0 8.42 11.07 17.6
Motor Car 10.1 15.54 5.53 6.94
Bus 22.4 39.57 59.74 62.0
Taxi 4.4 1.16 0.23 0.06
Auto 7.8 3.38 0.77 2.8
Rail 0.4 1.23 1.56 0.38
Others 17.9 2.19 4.1 3.62
Source: ORG, Household Travel Survey in Delhi, Final Report, September, 1994
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on furthering air and soil pollution besides being a high risk factor to human life and
safety which is portrayed by the following table.
Environmental Impacts
World’s people will, increasingly, live in cities, so traffic jams and pollution will
loom large in their lives. Worst of all will be mega-cities of Asia. By 2025, Beijing and
Kolkata will each be home to as many as 20 million people, Mumbai to 25 million. The
explosive growth of cities is devouring the countryside around them and fast turning into
mega settlements. These mega trends makes fusion of economic needs with ecological
constraints a difficult task. Such a trend, as is occurring, may be wholly undesirable from
the economic and ecological standpoint, and destructive of rational transport and energy
priorities. With explosive growth of cities come problems like environmental
degradation, higher cost of transportation and infrastructure. For example, 23 million plus
cities, which accommodate only 8 per cent of India’s population, account for 33 per cent
of total motor vehicles. Unless this trend is reversed, efficient transport management,
which is a very complex process, not only will remain elusive, but create insurmountable
problems. Transport in our modern society has a wide variety of negative environmental
consequences (externalities) which manifests in depletion of natural resources, noise,
local and global air pollution, landscape deterioration, urban sprawl, fatalities, congestion
and socio-psychological stress.
AIR POLLUTION
Today, globally, motor vehicles put out 900 million tons of carbon dioxide a year
which constitutes 15 per cent of the total emission. Urban air pollution has worsened in
most large cities in the developing world due to increased reliance on motorized vehicle
for transportation (see table 5). Despite pollution control effects, air quality has
approached dangerous levels in a number of mega cities, such as Beijing, Delhi, Jakarta,
and Mexico City, where pollutant levels sometimes exceed WHO air quality standards by
a factor of three or more. Delhi, once a green city, is now clubbed with the most polluted
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cities of the world. Delhi is also the worst ranked in levels of air pollution among the four
metropolis in India. A Delhiite inhales pollutants per day, on an average, equivalent to
one and a half packets of cigarettes, says the Delhi Environment Status report (1995).
Delhiites, for example, breathe a staggering 1300 metric tons of pollutants everyday,
thanks to 3.5 million vehicles on its roads. The import liberalization policy followed by
the Indian government since 1990’s has resulted in the production of a wide variety of
automobiles including two wheelers, passenger cars and commercial vehicles, without
any constraint on engine size, fuel efficiency and pollution norms. Inadequate road space
and failure to adhere to road discipline impedes the flow of traffic which means 20 per
cent extra fuel. A whopping 3.22 lakh litres of petrol and 1.01 lakh liters of diesel are
wasted everyday in Delhi due to vehicles idling at traffic signals. Idle traffic not only
means waste of precious fuel but also leads to increase in pollution density in the vicinity,
I.T.O. junction being the most quoted example.
In 1997, of the total vehicle population in India of about 37.6 million, over two
thirds were two wheelers. There were also about a million three wheelers. Virtually all
the Indian scooters (and until 1985 all motor cycles) use two stroke engines that are
‘intrinsically’ polluting because of their engine design. Unfortunately, the supply of mass
transport services is not in conformity with the growth of urban population and
expanding economic activities. This ever widening demand-supply gap is leading to
greater reliance on personal mode of motor transport. Consequently, private vehicles in
India have been rising at a rate of 10-15 per cent per annum.
Measures initiated to contain vehicles exhaust like conformity to Euro emission
norms are nullified by the sheer increase in the volume of traffic. Introduction of better
technology and fuel efficiency in cars and mandatory use of ‘non-polluting’ energy
sources like compressed natural gas for buses in Delhi, for example, may not achieve the
desired results: the exponential increase in number of vehicles will undo the benefit of
these steps. Moreover, in the case of cars, Euro I and Euro II norms only specify the
maximum permissible amount of exhaust emissions (in gms per km) without limiting
vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT). A much more effective indicator of polluting
propensity of a vehicle is to take a multiple of emission per KM and VKT.
Similarly, debate about appropriate emission norms highlights many other factors
which may affect ambient air quality much more. According to a US study in the 1990’s
by Beaton, et al, emission distribution was highly skewed-that 7 per cent of the vehicles
accounted for 50 per cent of the total on-road CO emissions and 10 per cent of the
vehicles accounted for 50 per cent of the HC emissions, termed as the gross
polluters.(Reddy, C.M) “It is often assumed that gross polluters are simply old vehicles…
…(But) the highest emitting 20 per cent of the newest cars were worst polluters than the
lowest emitting 40 per cent of vehicles from any model year, even those from before the
advent of catalytic converters (1970 and earlier)”. These data are typical of results across
the US, and at many other locations world wide. He study is a pointer to a new approach
towards emission reduction strategies: "it found that a emission reduction strategy (at an
average cost of just $200 a vehicle) decreased HC and CO levels by an amazing 55 and
24 per cent more than scrapping the 73 per cent of all vehicles that were over three years
old and at an estimated one-tenth the cost". The Society for Automobile fitness and
environment in India has estimated that with an investment of as little as Rs.12000 the
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emission levels of all the old commercial vehicles on the roads already can be brought
below the current norms for the new vehicles (Reddy).
Till the 1980’s polluted air in the cities in India could be traced more to industrial
activities. For over a decade now, it is evident that more than half the pollution load in
our cities is due to automobile exhaust. In Delhi, factories were responsible for more than
half the toxic emissions in 1970-71. But by the 1990’s, it became apparent that the major
contributor to air pollution was not factories but automobiles.(see table 6 )
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The impact of polluted air on the health of urban residents has now been
documented in almost every city. The tenth five year plan document voices considerable
concern over growing air pollution from vehicles and its impact on health. Every year in
developing countries, a million people die from urban air pollution. Air pollution due to
vehicular traffic has become the single most important reason for respiratory diseases
today, children being particularly vulnerable. A 1991-92 World Bank study of the health
effects of air pollution in 36 Indian cities, found that high SPM levels had resulted in
40,000 premature deaths each year. A Centre for Science and Environment study
registered a 28 per cent increase in this estimate. A study conducted by Chest Medicine
and Environment pollution Research Centre, Mumbai found that the prevalence of
asthma in children had increased from 4 per cent to 6-7 per cent now. In heavily polluted
areas, it was 14 per cent. Increased propensity of hypertension and ischemic heart
diseases were found near traffic junctions, oxides of nitrogen, particulates and CO being
the main culprits. The trends are identical in most other mega cities, namely Delhi,
Chennai, Bangalore and Hyderabad. The latest air quality According to WHO, on an
average, a Delhite visits a doctor at least 15 times in a year for health problems
specifically caused by pollution. The situation is particularly alarming in Delhi.
According to Delhi environmental status report (1995) the incidence of respiratory
diseases in Delhi is twelve times the national average. Besides foul air in cities, one has
to cope with traffic noise and dust that speeding vehicles raise, especially in residential
colonies.
FATALITIES
Besides slow poisoning, vehicular traffic takes its toll in a more dramatic fashion
as well (see table 7 ) Road traffic accidents have assumed epidemic proportions all over
the world, especially in Asian countries. One of the dismaying corollary to the region’s
economic prosperity and the accompanying boom in motor-vehicle purchase by the
nouveau-rich has been a staggeringly high traffic-fatality rate. Car ownership in China
jumped 41 per cent between 1999 and 2002, while over the same period road accidents
twice as fast, by more than 83 per cent. In India, like clockwork, more than 80.000 people
get wiped out on the roads every year. According to a WHO report, with just 16 per cent
of world’s fleet of motor vehicles, Asia accounts for more than half of the roughly 1.2
million traffic fatalities. It is estimated that by 2020, traffic accidents will account for one
in every 20 lost years of healthy life, world-wide. What is of greater concern is that the
present situation is expected to only worsen. According to a World Bank study, if India’s
economic growth continues at the current pace, the country would not be able to reach the
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threshold (per capita income of $8600), when road death rates begin to improve, until
2049.
Mortality rate per vehicle are greater when vehicle use increases most rapidly as
is the case in Delhi and other metropolitan cities in India. The city is labeled as a
“pedestrian graveyard”, where 75 per cent of the people killed on the roads are
pedestrians, cyclists and motor-cyclists (Geetam Tiwari) and only 5 per cent are in cars.
According to the capital’s transport department, nearly half of the 1700 people killed on
the city’s roads last year were on foot. Buses and trucks account for 60 per cent killed on
the roads. In Delhi, on an average, 6 persons lose their lives in accidents, everyday. This
is in sharp contrast to accident deaths profile in Europe, where half the persons killed are
in cars and majority of the pedestrians who lose their lives are killed by cars. With
millions of victims, and no remorse, road recklessness has become the 'car' related
sickness. Driving and habitual road rage have become virtually inseparable.
Road fatalities, besides causing serious trauma to individuals and families as
personal loss also entails heavy social cost: road traffic accidents cost each country
around I per cent of their GNP each year in the form of material damage, police time,
medical cost, litigation, productivity and production losses. The global cost of traffic
accidents in 1990 was estimated to be US $ 230 billion of which the share of developing
countries was US $ 36 billion. According to a study from IIT, it is quite evident that the
single most important reason for fatal road accidents is the absence of speed norms.
People devote on an average a constant fraction of their daily time to travel-called the
‘travel time budget’ (Zahavi Yacob). Even though small groups and individuals vary in
their behavior, on an average, a person spends 1.1 hours a day traveling. Since, people
hold their time for travel constant but also demand more mobility as their income rises,
slower modes of transport like buses are replaced by cars, which typically operate door to
door. The fact is, as speed goes up, the death rate increases. Most fatal accidents occur
when the maximum speed exceeds 50 kmph. Below 50 kmph the death rate falls
dramatically and there are practically no death when it drops below 30.
Table-7 Motor Vehicle accidents(numbers)in metropolitan cities, India : 1996to1998
SOCIO-PSYCHOLOGICAL STRESS
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Stress is the single most important background reason for several ailments
afflicting the city dwellers all over the world, today. A poorly managed transport system,
instead of performing its role as a public utility and a facility, becomes counter
productive and operates as a social and 'psychological-stresser’. Repeated daily hassles
like commuting, if unpleasant, leave People with bruised feelings and irritable which
reflects in their work and personal relationships. In a city stress index, transport is an
important component which determines the overall quality of life.
Even though no systematic attempt has been made to chart a city stress index for
metropolis in India, transport system, at least in Delhi, has more than its share in creating
an atmosphere of anxiety and stress on the roads which we have to cope with. Several
facets of transport such as nonavailability, noise, crowding, rash driving, are some of the
unpleasant experiences of everyday commuting in Delhi. Long waiting time due to
inadequate public transport in Delhi is highly exasperating and frustrating. Noise in the
form of unwanted sound whether in the form of honking of horns or loud “music” from
the tape-recorder of the bus driver or from the unmanageable fleet of vehicles is linked to
a number of ailments ranging from nervous tension to neurosis. Added to this is visual
pollution Overcrowding on the roads, smoke, undisciplined traffic are known as aesthetic
pollutants which do violence to our sensibilities and leads to morbidity and sickness.
Transport Behavior
By and large, passenger traffic means journeys to and from work as the primary
purpose of trips. The second next important reason for travel is for school and college
travel. Moreover, people also commute for shopping, social and recreational activities.
But the new dimension which is compounding the problem, which is serious enough
already, is the new life style of the emerging prosperous middle class which tries to earn
its status points in every conceivable manner. Mode of transport is perceived to determine
one’s placement in a highly stratified society. Fashion in many Asian markets is a
reflection of badge of one’s increasing worth, rather than a social statement. Parents pass
on this obsession with status to their children by making sure that they won’t be shown
up at school by arriving in a less expensive car. They get everything from parents
because parents want to impress other parents. In Bangkok’s Chulaloukom University,
students go by nicknames derived from the type of cars they drive. In Delhi University,
parking has become a serious problem today. One can witness long lines of parked cars
outside colleges during college hours as parking space within the college is not sufficient
to accommodate everybody. The priority of students has shifted from reserving a seat in
the library to finding a safer and decent parking lot in the morning. A decade back a car
on Delhi road was an object of attraction. But now the roads are crowded by a strong
contingent of cars of all makes and sizes. Already, over a dozen car giants have squeezing
into the Indian market for luxury cars. Two wheelers also have a very promising and
expanding market in which fuel economy, non-availability of dependable transport
system and status play their part. Added to this is the ever-increasing demand for goods
traffic in order to meet the high expectation of a consumer’s society. One can witness
more and bigger trucks on Delhi roads speeding and ferrying all kinds of goods from
vegetables to luxury motor cars and other consumer durables.
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2. restructuring society with regard to demand for and supply of transport which is in
tune with the ecological needs.
The current strategy to improve air quality in the developed world is based
essentially on technological solutions, which is a supply-side management option.
However, in the developing economies, there are obvious limits to such a strategy. With
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1.Transport Demand Oriented Policies: Several measures can be adopted to cut down
demand for transport. Various types of taxes can be levied like fuel tax, road tax, and
parking charges to cut down demand for transport by making it more costlier. It is
commonly known that automobile usage is under-priced to the user because they do not
pay for the externalities like congestion and pollution. One can also think of selective tax
structure to discourage the use of more polluting vehicles. The recent proposal to increase
duty on diesel cars is a welcome step. Regulative measures like mandatory vehicle
inspection, speed limit, higher taxes for bigger cars would also have a dampening effect
on demand for private vehicles. Commuters can also be encouraged to use transport more
efficiently in the form of car pooling. Most of the environmental effects have no price in
the market sense. They are priceless. Conventional economic wisdom alone may not help
redress environmentally damaging behavior. It is for this reason that government
responses, howsoever, sincere may not yield the desired results
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Delhi to CNG mode, at the instance of the Supreme Court, has greatly helped improve
ambient air quality in Delhi.
conclusion
Various short, medium and long term steps to ensure air quality have been
identified by the relevant governments and their instrumentalities in different countries,
and some of them have been implemented with varying success. Yet, there has been no
discernible impact on pollution levels in most of the cities in the world. The situation is
particularly grim in the emerging mega-cities in underdeveloped countries. What is,
therefore, important is not to reiterate the well known actions or policy interventions, but
to establish a methodology based on an integrated approach to problem solving. A
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References
Beaton et.al. Cited in Reddy, Vehicles Emissions Beyond Technology, The Hindu Survey
of the Environment,2000.
Gwilliam, K.M., and H. Greelings, Research and Technology Strategy to Help Overcome
the Environmental Problems in Relation to Transport, Monitor- SAST, EC. Brussels,
1992
Kenneth Button, Peter Nijkamp and Hugo Priemus, Transport Networks in Europe,
Concepts, Analyses and Policy, Edward Elgar 1998.
Mohan, Dinesh “Smokeless Vehicles For A cleaner Future”, The Hindu Survey of the
Environment,1998.
Tiwari, Geetam. Heterogenous Cities, Limits of Old Paradigms” in The Hindu Survey of
the Environment,1998.
Zahavi, Yacob., cited in “The Past and Future of global mobility” by Andreas Schafer and
David Victor, Scientific American, October 1997
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