Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
10 June 2020
CNPF 15.10 20.00 32.5% 10.00 16.52 7.9% Resilient demand for shelf staples
PGOLD 45.55 51.50 13.1% 26.00 54.55 33.8% Beneficiary of resilient demand
*Entry and Exit Prices are based on the recommendations of BPI Securities Active Advisory Group
*Ratings and Price Targets are based on the recommendations of BPI Securities Research Department
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 1
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
BPI SECURITIES VALUATION TABLE
LAST % UPSIDE / FY20F Div FY20F ROE FY20F EPS
TICKER RATING TARGET PRICE FY20F P/E FY19F P/B
PRICE (DOWNSIDE) Yield (%) (%) Growth
ALI 38.00
AP BUY 42.60 28.80 47.9% 9.4 1.5 4.4% 15.1% 15.6%
BDO BUY 112.00 110.50 1.4% 12.8 1.3 1.1% 9.9% (13.6%)
BLOOM BUY 6.30 8.00 (21.3%) 0 3.0 2.6% (0.2%) (100.8%)
CHIB BUY 36.50 20.90 74.6% 5.7 0.6 4.5% 10.0% 18.4%
CIC BUY 54.00 22.50 140.0% 7.4 1.1 3.9% 19.2% 13.4%
CLI BUY 6.00 3.96 51.5% 2.7 0.5 6.3% 28.2% 22.3%
CNPF BUY 20.00 15.10 32.5% 14.7 2.8 1.5% 17.7% 14.4%
DMC HOLD 16.10 4.62 248.5% 6.4 0.6 7.0% 16.1% 12.2%
DMW BUY 11.50 6.65 72.9% 10.6 1.1 3.0% 10.0% 23.5%
DNL BUY 9.70 5.60 73.2% 12.4 2.3 1.8% 17.9% 9.8%
EMP HOLD 6.70 8.29 (19.2%) 18.5 2.0 1.8% 10.5% 5.9%
EW BUY 14.00 8.08 73.3% 3.7 0.4 3.4% 10.0% 15.6%
FB HOLD 115.00 72.10 59.5% 17.6 2.8 3.5% 14.5% 13.3%
GLO HOLD 2,150.00 2,170.00 (0.9%) 13.9 3.6 4.8% 25.7% 7.4%
GTCAP BUY 1,025.00 530.00 93.4% 6.6 0.7 4.4% 9.7% 17.9%
ICT BUY 163.50 107.00 52.8% 13.1 2.4 2.6% 17.8% 38.4%
IMI HOLD 13.50 6.00 125.0% 6.7 0.6 3.5% 8.4% 27.4%
JFC HOLD 240.00 138.90 72.8% 21.8 2.9 1.4% 18.2% 15.0%
LTG BUY 24.00 9.53 151.8% 4.6 0.4 2.1% 9.1% 11.2%
MAC BUY 22.80 7.06 222.9% 8.7 1.7 2.3% 17.9% 17.7%
MAXS BUY 18.00 6.30 185.7% 6.0 0.8 3.2% 12.7% 11.7%
MBT BUY 48.20 42.00 14.8% 8.1 0.6 2.1% 7.3% (17.1%)
MEG BUY 5.40 3.30 63.6% 5.8 0.6 2.5% 10.3% 7.5%
MER HOLD 375.00 291.00 28.9% 13.5 3.7 5.8% 26.5% 3.0%
MPI BUY 6.35 3.55 78.9% 6.6 0.4 3.5% 9.4% 10.2%
MRSGI BUY 3.00 1.75 71.4% 7.9 0.6 3.4% 7.7% 35.6%
MWC HOLD 28.90 12.50 131.2% 3.9 0.4 8.0% 11.0% 11.6%
MWIDE BUY 21.85 7.90 176.6% 8.4 0.8 0.0% 15.0% (9.0%)
PIZZA BUY 15.15 6.92 118.9% 10.2 2.0 1.9% 18.1% 13.3%
PGOLD BUY 51.50 45.55 13.1% 17.3 2.0 0.9% 11.2% 14.8%
PNB BUY 60.00 23.20 158.6% 2.8 0.2 0.0% 7.4% 18.6%
RCB HOLD 27.00 19.10 41.4% 6.7 0.4 2.4% 6.0% 24.1%
RLC BUY 28.00 20.10 39.3% 10.4 1.0 2.1% 9.6% 13.5%
RRHI BUY 90.00 70.00 28.6% 20.5 1.4 1.0% 6.7% 16.0%
SCC BUY 27.50 14.00 96.4% 4.0 1.5 6.3% 28.7% 19.9%
SECB HOLD 185.00 108.10 71.1% 7.0 0.7 2.8% 9.6% 12.8%
SM HOLD 900.00 950.00 (5.3%) 23.0 3.0 1.1% 12.3% 17.8%
SMPH BUY 42.50 33.50 26.9% 22.2 3.1 1.2% 13.4% 12.7%
SHLPH HOLD 50.50 20.65 144.6% 6.1 0.8 11.0% 13.2% 12.5%
TEL BUY 1,500.00 1,194.00 25.6% 11.8 2.4 6.0% 16.9% 2.1%
UBP HOLD 68.00 55.50 22.5% 8.1 0.7 3.4% 8.6% 7.9%
URC HOLD 145.00 149.00 (2.7%) 28.4 3.7 1.9% 12.4% 6.5%
WLCON HOLD 19.00 16.32 16.4% 27.7 4.5 0.7% 15.3% 18.0%
Average 32.5% 11.0 2.3 2.1% 11.8% 9.7%
Source: PSE, Bloomberg, BSP
Rating System: Buy (>10% Upside); Hold (-10% Downside to +10% Upside); Sell (>10% Downside)
SECTOR VALUATION
FY20F
% Upside / PT Implied PT Implied Forward Current FY20F Div FY19A
SECTOR Rating YoY
(Downside) FY20F P/E P/B P/E P/B Yield ROE
Growth
Banking BUY 24.2% 13.3 1.1 9.0 1.0 1.9% 9.5% 25.0%
Conglomerate BUY 29.5% 24.3 2.4 19.5 2.4 1.6% 11.2% 16.1%
Consumer BUY 31.8% 31.2 3.6 23.2 3.1 3.4% 13.3% 6.3%
Gaming BUY 50.0% 18.5 4.4 8.9 3.6 0.0% 21.5% 38.9%
Infrastructure BUY 176.6% 23.2 2.2 7.6 0.9 0.0% 13.8% 10.6%
Power BUY 58.6% 13.0 2.3 9.6 1.5 7.6% 21.3% (8.2%)
Property BUY 33.4% 31.6 3.7 20.2 3.0 1.1% 13.3% 19.9%
Services BUY 64.8% 26.2 3.6 13.7 2.0 2.3% 13.6% 25.3%
Telco ADD 11.6% 16.1 3.3 13.6 3.2 5.2% 22.0% 7.5%
Utility BUY 36.3% 18.3 4.5 13.2 3.7 6.1% 27.9% 5.4%
RESEARCH TEAM
Miguel Sevidal – Telco, Transport, Gaming, Consumer
Colleen Gatchalian
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
PLDT says first-half performance to surpass last year’s
PLDT Inc. said that its revenues had been doing well since April, making it possible that its performance for the first half of the year will
surpass last year’s despite the coronavirus crisis. “Our revenues in the first four weeks of the lockdown — spanning the last half of March
and the first half of April —were hardest hit. However, starting the week of Easter Sunday in April, following the balance of April, then
May, and onwards to June, we have seen a steady upward march of our revenues, especially in wireless and home broadband,” PLDT
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Manuel V. Pangilinan said. He also said revenues in April and May this year are ahead of last year.
“Given this momentum, it is likely that service revenues for the first six months this year will improve over last year’s despite the
pandemic,” Mr. Pangilinan said. PLDT, he noted, also expects that its first half telco core income will rise above last year’s despite the
crisis. “I can assure you that we have steady hands on the tiller, and the ship itself is sturdy. I can add that PLDT is, in fact, emerging
stronger from this pandemic,” Mr. Pangilinan said. Last month, the company announced that it would reduce its capital spending for
the year by 24% to Php63B from the planned Php83B as movement and travel restrictions under the government-imposed enhanced
community quarantine disrupted its network rollout. The Pangilinan-led company’s first-quarter net income had decreased 12% to
Php5.91B because of losses on its investment in German-based Internet company Rocket Internet and ramped-up investment in its
digital arm Voyager Innovations, Inc. PLDT’s core income was also down 5% to Php6.9B from Php7.2B. Total revenues went up 7% to
Php43.65B, of which service revenues increased 8% to Php41.8B and non-service revenues inched up 1.25% to Php1.85B. Meanwhile,
Fitch Ratings said that the leverage profiles of PLDT and its rival Globe Telecom, Inc. are “likely to converge” this year. Fitch Ratings noted
that operating cash flow continues to lag behind investment amid the coronavirus crisis. “Our projections envisage PLDT’s revenue
growing by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage in 2020 (2019: 3%), slightly ahead of Globe’s low-single-digit rate decline (2019: 10%
growth),” Fitch Ratings said. “We consider PLDT’s broader service diversification and entrenched fixed-line position to be advantageous
in mitigating revenue pressure in its wireless business, compared with Globe. However, the investments needed to support PLDT’s
expansion in mobile revenue and broadband installations are likely to moderate EBITDA growth and delay deleveraging,” it said. It also
noted that the continued travel restrictions “will delay infrastructure network rollout, including new competition from third mobile
network operator, Dito Telecommunity Corp.”
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 3
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
AllHome gearing for store expansion with relaxed lockdown
AllHome Corp. is planning to open a new branch in Isabela in the third quarter as it boosts its presence across the country. The Villar-
led retailer of home improvement products said it is continuing to work on increasing its store network from 45 stores at present. “We
have a solid pipeline of new stores around the country and have the ability to fast track construction of those stores given our affiliation
with the Villar Group’s commercial and residential companies,” AllHome President Benjamarie Therese N. Serrano said. The company
has set opening a new branch in Santiago, Isabela within the third quarter. This would be the latest addition after the four stores AllHome
opened in Gapan, Nueva Ecija; San Ildefonso, Bulacan; Ampayon, Butuan; and Koronadal City, South Cotabato. Currently, the company’s
45-store network is distributed in Mega Manila (35 stores), other areas in Luzon (5), and Visayas and Mindanao (5). When it did its public
offer in October last year, AllHome said its target was to have 70 stores by the end of 2020. “We are confident with the pipeline of
AllHome especially with the easing of community restrictions. AllHome’s strength of being close to residential communities makes it a
go-to place during quarantine periods and even after the community quarantine,” AllHome Vice-Chairman Camille A. Villar said. The
company said it caters not only to homeowners of Villar-led properties, but also interior designers, architects and contractors as its
portfolio of products range from construction materials, hardware, tiles and sanitary wares, furniture, appliances, homewares and linens.
“Consumers now deem it important to shop closer to home and in a space that’s not overly crowded for their own safety. Being a home
essential provider, AllHome will continue to provide service to those who are fixing their own homes or contractors who have resumed
construction activities,” Ms. Villar said. New revenue streams, amounting to 22 new stores to be exact, lifted the company’s topline by
41% to Php3.37B.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 4
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
CORPORATE NEWS
Banks’ bad loans surge to Php253B
Banks’ bad loans went up by 18.3% to Php252.64B as of end-April from Php213.51B in the same period last year amid the sharp rise in
past due as well as restructured loans due to the coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas. Data from the BSP showed the increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) held by banks was faster than the 8.1% rise in the
industry’s loan book to Php11T from Php10.17T. NPLs or bad debts refer to past due loan accounts where the principal or interest is
unpaid for 30 days or more after due date. As a result, the banking industry’s gross NPL ratio increased for the fourth straight month to
2.3% of total loans as of end-April compared to a year-ago level of 2.1%. Past due loans referring to all types of loans left unsettled
beyond payment date surged by 41% to Php414.41B from Php293.63B, while restructured loans increased by 20.2% to Php47.5B from
Php39.52B. Month-on-month, past due loans jumped by 21.5% to Php414.14B as of end-April from Php341.12B a month ago as
Malacañang imposed the enhanced community quarantine in Luzon on March 16 to limit the spread of COVID-19. This prompted banks
to jack up the allowance of credit losses to Php235.78B as of end-April, 19.6% higher than the Php197.17B earmarked in the same period
last year. This translated to a higher NPL coverage ratio of 93.33% from 92.34% For one, BDO Unibank – the country’s largest bank –
beefed up its war chest versus bad loans to a record Php22.1B in anticipation of the expected disruptive economic impact of the
outbreak. Other big banks that earmarked higher provisions in the first quarter include Security Bank with Php5.7B, Metropolitan Bank
& Trust Co. with Php5B, Bank of the Philippine Islands with Php4.23B, Philippine National Bank with Php3.4B, Rizal Commercial Banking
Corp. with Php1.6B, Union Bank with Php1.3B, among others. The BSP data showed the NPL ratio of universal and commercial banks
increased for the fourth straight month to 1.91% as of end-April from 1.56% a year ago, while the NPL ratio of thrift or mid-sized banks
improved to 5.58% from 5.81%. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno said earlier the country’s banking system is in a strong financial position
and capable of managing the crisis even if the NPL ratio is increased to 5%. “We have prepared our banking system well,” Diokno said.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 5
BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
DIVIDENDS SCHEDULE
Type of Ex-Dividend Payment
Ticker Company Name Dividend Rate
Dividend Date Date
T SMC2I San Miguel Corporation Cash Php1.18790625 06/16/2020 07/03/2020
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
APPENDIX | GENERAL DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein is based on information obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but does
not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or
correctness for any purpose. All the charts and graphs are taken from publicly available sources or derived from
proprietary data. Expressed opinions may be subject to change without prior notice. Any recommendation contained
herein does not pertain to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any
addressee.
The information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for
the exercise of judgment by addressees who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. The Company or any
of its related companies or any individuals connected with the group accepts no liability for any direct, special,
indirect, consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the
information herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further
communication thereof, even if the Company or any other person has been advised of the possibility thereof.
The information herein is not to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, or currency mentioned
therein. The information herein is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction
or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
Sources:
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
APPENDIX | SALES DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared
APPENDIX | SALESbyDISCLAIMER
a sales function within BPI Securities Corporation (“BSC”). Any opinions expressed
herein are solely those of the author and may be different from the views expressed by BSC itself and its other
departments, including the research department. Sales functions are subject to potential conflicts of interest which
the other BSC departments, including the research department, do not encounter.
This report is published for the information of the recipients only. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation
to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments, to participate in any particular trading
strategy or to provide any investment advice or services. Any recommendation contained herein does not pertain
to any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient.
BSC is not a deposit-taking institution and their obligations or liabilities do not represent the obligations or liabilities
of the Bank of the Philippine Islands ("BPI"). Securities and other financial instruments discussed, recommended,
offered, or sold by BSC: (a) are not insured by the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation; (b) are not deposits or
other obligations of any insured depository institution (including BPI); and (c) are subject to investment risks,
including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
BSC may deal or transact in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed in this report. BSC trades or may trade
as principal in the instruments mentioned herein. BSC, its directors, officers and/or employees may have positions
or other interests in, and may effect transactions in, securities mentioned in this report. BSC may make a market in
the instruments discussed herein. The author of this report may know the nature of such positions and strategies.
The assumptions, estimates and opinions expressed in this report are the author's judgment as of the date hereof
and are subject to change without notice. Although this report is based on information obtained from sources
considered to be reliable as of the date hereof, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express
or implied, as to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. Any information is subject to change
without notice and the author is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained
herein.
Certain transactions or securities in this report are subject to substantial risk and are not appropriate for all investors.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. BSC deals with counterparties on an arm's length
basis. BSC assumes that each counterparty is capable of making an independent evaluation of the merits and risks
of each, and an independent decision on any, transaction.
BSC does not render legal, tax or financial advice, and the information contained in this report should not be
considered as such and should not be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient who should
obtain separate legal, tax or financial advice. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct, special, indirect,
consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information
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BPI Traders’ Takedown – 10 June 2020
APPENDIX | RESEARCH DISCLAIMER
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) of BSC. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and
may be different from the views expressed by BSC itself and its other departments.
This report is published for the information of the recipients only. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation
to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments, to participate in any particular trading
strategy or to provide any investment advice or services. Any recommendation contained herein does not pertain to
any specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any recipient.
BSC is not a deposit-taking institution and their obligations or liabilities do not represent the obligations or liabilities
of the Bank of the Philippine Islands ("BPI").
Securities and other financial instruments discussed, recommended, offered, or sold by BSC: (a) are not insured by the
Philippine Deposit Insurance Corporation; (b) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository
institution (including BPI); and (c) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount
invested.
BSC may deal or transact in a manner inconsistent with the views discussed in this report. BSC trades or may trade as
principal in the instruments mentioned herein. BSC, its directors, officers and/or employees may have positions or
other interests in, and may effect transactions in, securities mentioned in this report. BSC may make a market in the
instruments discussed herein. The author of this report may know the nature of such positions and strategies.
The author(s) has received assistance from the subject company in this report including but not limited to meetings
with the management of the company. The analysts and/or associates from time to time seek to establish business
or financial relationships with companies covered in their research reports. Consequently, investors should be aware
that BSC and/or the analysts/associates may have one or more conflicts of interests that could affect the objectivity
of this report.
The assumptions, estimates and opinions expressed in this report are the author’s judgment as of the date hereof and
are subject to change without notice. Although this report is based on information obtained from sources considered
to be reliable as of the date hereof, the author does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as
to its accuracy, timeliness or completeness for any purpose. Any information is subject to change without notice and
the author is not under any obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein.
Certain transactions or securities in this report are subject to substantial risk and are not appropriate for all investors.
Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. BSC deals with counterparties on an arm’s length
basis. BSC assumes that each counterparty is capable of making an independent evaluation of the merits and risks of
each, and an independent decision on any, transaction.
BSC does not render legal, tax or financial advice, and the information contained in this report should not be
considered as such and should not be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient who should
obtain separate legal, tax or financial advice. No liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct, special, indirect,
consequential, incidental damages or any other loss or damages of any kind arising from any use of the information
herein (including any error, omission or misstatement herein, negligent or otherwise) or further communication
thereof.
This is a product of the BPITrade Sales and BPITrade Research Team. See Appendices for Analyst Certification and important disclosures. 9