The Rise and Fall of Great Powers

Economic Change & Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

Author : Paul Kennedy (1988)

Review/Comments by : Dipinder Sekhon

March 17th 2008, MPA – Sciences Po, Paris

 “Great Power”
 What ?

Interrelations
 Economic, Military
 Fame/Respect, Influence, Happiness
 Population
 Cultural, Technological advancement
 Who ?
 Nations... their leaders, their people
 MNCs...their leaders, their stakeholders
 Groups and Alliances / Identities...people
“Rise & Fall” ... Power has been transitory
 Great Powers : 1500-2000
 Ming China
 The Muslim World
 Ottoman, Persian, Mogul Empires
Strategy &
 Japan Economics
 Habsburg Bloc / Spain, Austria
 Russia ... Muscovy
 Britain
 Germany Changing
 Austria Hungary
Balances
 Netherlands
 Europe / EEC
 The United States

The Middle Powers

 Key Issues
Peace time strategy, developments

Results and consequences of Wars

Uneven rates of growth

Technological Organisational
breakthroughs Breakthroughs

Wealth is usually needed to underpin military power and

military power is usually needed to acquire (!) and protect wealth
 Breakthroughs...
 Travel, Communication, Information
 Trade
 Banking / Credit system
 Military Innovations
 Energy : Technology, Resources
 Innovation, Productivity
 Strategy
 Resource Allocation
The
 Productive, Wealth Creating Activities Right
 Military power enhancement Balance

Over extension of the state

Maintaining a large/extensive military, territories, influence......

.... fighting costly wars ....
 Future : 21st Century
 Historical trends ... non-linear
 China+, US\, EU?, Soviet Union- ,Japan+
 War ? ... ceased after 1945 ? ... Mankind
will not be foolish again ?
 1910 international bestseller “The Great
Illusions” .. war is disastrous for both victors and
vanquished

“...continued deficit spending, especially on military build-up, will be

the single most important reason for decline of any Great Power”
Thank You !!