Livestock literature

The Master Plan Study on Livestock, Meat and

Dairy Development in Sindh specifically focuses on Sindh
Province and the Livestock Sector1. However, before going
into the heart of the issue, it would be worthwhile to
articulate our basic perception towards the issue we are
challenging in the context of overall agricultural as well as
rural development in Pakistan.

The agricultural sector (in a broader category,

inclusive of livestock) is a backbone of Pakistan’s economy
and society in that it contributes 21% of GDP, absorbs 45%
of the total labor force, and provides productive as well as living space for as many as 2/3 of the
entire
population.2 Even though the driving force of economic transformation has been the non-
agricultural sector,
notably manufacturing industry, the performance of the non-agricultural sector decisively
depends upon the
strong support of the agricultural sector.

Conventional understanding with respect to the roles of the agricultural sector in economic
development are; 1) provision of staple crops and industrial raw materials, 2) earning of foreign
currencies
for necessary imports, 3) supply of labor force and rural savings for industrial development, and
4) finally
provision of market for domestic industries.3 However, this prescription has been challenged in
two aspects.

One is the unsuccessful transfer of surplus labor force from the agricultural sector, mainly due to
the low
absorptive capacity of the urban high productivity sectors of economy. Another one is slow
growth of rural
market, thus consumption, mainly due to the skewed distribution of income and assets and
resultant poverty
persistent in rural area.

Based on these empirical findings, the new role expected for the agricultural sector is three-fold.
The first role is to promote agricultural growth with high employment elasticity. The second role
is to
reduce the growing inter-regional as well as intra-regional disparity. The third role is to alleviate
persistent
poverty.4 The classical role such as the provision of staples, industrial raw materials and
development fund
are incorporated in the first role in the new version. Enhancement of consumption in
macroeconomic
framework can be taken care of by the second and the third role in our new version.

1 See Appendix M for the project outline.

2 Government of Pakistan, Economic Survey 2009-10
3 Bruce F. Johnston and John W. Mellor ‘The Role of Agriculture in Economic Development,’
American Economic Review,
September, 1961
4 S. Hirashima, ‘Crucial Role of Agriculture in Indian Development: A Japanese Perspective,’ in
Sankar K. Bhaumik ed. Reforming
Indian Agriculture, Sage Publication, 2008, India

The importance of livestock in the agricultural sector has been emphasized in a number
of FAO publications, notably, Livestock production: a world perspective (FAO,
1982), The role of ruminant livestock in food security in developing countries (FAO,
1992), Livestock and improvement of pasture, feed and forage (FAO, 1993a)
and Strategies for sustainable animal agriculture in developing countries (FAO, 1993b).

As incomes increase, demand for greater food variety grows. Demand for higher-value

and quality foods such as meat, eggs and milk rises, compared with food of plant origin

such as cereals. These changes in consumption, together with sizeable population

growth, have led to large increases in the total demand for animal products in many

developing countries, and this trend will continue.

The rising share of animal products in the diet is evident in developing countries. Even

though calories derived from cereals have increased in absolute terms, as a share of

total calories they continue to fall, from 60 percent in 1961/63 to an expected 50 percent
in 2030. Similarly, the contribution of other traditional staples (potatoes, sweet potatoes,

cassava, plantains and other roots) fell from second largest contributor to dietary

calories (10 percent) in 1961/63 to lowest (6.2 percent) by 1997/99. By then, animal

products had become the second major source of calories (10.6 percent) in developing

countries.

In industrial countries, the consumption of animal proteins increased in the 1960s and

1970s from 44 to 55 g/capita/day. After this, animal protein consumption remained fairly

stable. In developing countries, however, although the level of consumption of animal

proteins increased steadily from 9 g/capita/day in 1961/63 to 20 g/capita/day in 1997/99,

there is still significant potential for increases.

Between 1997/99 and 2030, annual meat consumption in developing countries is

projected to increase from 25.5 to 37 kg per person, compared with an increase from 88

to 100 kg in industrial countries. Consumption of milk and dairy products will rise from

45 kg/ person/p.a. to 66 kg in developing countries, and from 212 to 221 kg in industrial

countries. For eggs, consumption will grow from 6.5 to 8.9 kg in developing countries

and from 13.5 to 13.8 kg in industrial countries..

The supply of animal products can be increased by raising the number of animals, and

by improving productivity and processing and marketing efficiency, and by adopting

various combinations of these factors. In most regions, land availability limits the

expansion of livestock numbers in extensive production systems, so the bulk of the

production increase will come from increased productivity, through intensification and

wider adoption of better production and marketing technologies.

1.1.1 Review of related literature

Global Livestock production and productivity

Livestock systems occupy about 30 per cent of the planet's ice-free terrestrial surface

area [CITATION Ste06 \l 1033 ]and are a significant global asset with a value of at least $1.4

trillion. The livestock sector is increasingly organized in long market chains that employ

at least 1.3 billion people globally and directly support the livelihoods of 600 million poor

smallholder farmers in the developing world. [ CITATION Tho06 \l 1033 ] Keeping livestock is

an important risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities, and livestock are

important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems.

Livestock products contribute 17 per cent to kilocalorie consumption and 33 per cent to

protein consumption globally, but there are large differences between rich and poor

countries (Rosegrant et al. 2009).

Livestock systems have both positive and negative effects on the natural resource base,

public health, social equity and economic growth (World Bank 2009). Currently,

livestock is one of the fastest growing agricultural subsectors in developing countries. Its

share of agricultural GDP is already 33 per cent and is quickly increasing. This growth is

driven by the rapidly increasing demand for livestock products, this demand being

driven by population growth, urbanization and increasing incomes in developing

countries (Delgado 2005).

The global livestock sector is characterized by a dichotomy between developing and

developed countries. Total meat production in the developing world tripled between

1980 and 2002, from 45 to 134 million tons (World Bank 2009). Much of this growth was

concentrated in countries that experienced rapid economic growth, particularly in East

Asia, and revolved around poultry and pigs. In developed countries, on the other hand,

production and consumption of livestock products are now growing only slowly or

stagnating, although at high levels. Even so, livestock production and merchandizing in

industrialized countries account for 53 per cent of agricultural GDP (World Bank 2009).

This combination of growing demand in the developing world and stagnant demand in

industrialized countries represents a major opportunity for livestock keepers in

developing countries, where most demand is met by local production, and this is likely

to continue well into the foreseeable future. At the same time, the expansion of

agricultural production needs to take place in a way that allows the less well-off to

benefit from increased demand and that moderates its impact on the environment.
The strongest structural trend in livestock production has been the growth of intensive,

vertically integrated, intensive establishments close to large urban centres.

I.1.1 Philippines Livestock Agriculture

Table1.2 Volume of production of agricultural products, Philippines, 1992, 1994 and

2012

Agricultural Products Volume of Production Rate of

Increase/

Decrease (%)
1992 1994 2012
CROPS1 15,057,300 25,439,252 68.9
1. Palay 10,538,054 18,032,422 2.31
2. Corn 4,519,246 7,406,830 2.17
LIVESTOCK2 2315.93 4438.55 91.65
1. Carabao 108.60 142.73 1.20
2. Cattle 166.91 253.98 1.7
3. Hog 1,056.98 1,973.63 2.32
4. Goat 59.67 75.66 1.06
5. Dairy 15.42 18.45 0.82
6. Chicken 651.99 1,479.44 2.8
7. Duck 39.09 33.85 -0.78
8. Chicken Eggs 180.52 421.06 2.86
9. Duck Eggs 36.75 39.75 0.38
Data Source: Bureau of Agricultural Statistics
1 Data are in metric tons

2 Data are in thousand metric tons

Focuses in sustaining supply of Livestock for Agro-Industry.

This research is to sustain the livestock supply for the Agro-Industry of Urdaneta City.
Human population in 2050 is estimated to be 9.15 billion, with a range of 7.96–10.46

billion (UNPD 2008). Most of the increase is projected to take place in developing

countries. East Asia will have shifted to negative population growth by the late 2040s

(FAO 2010). Rapid population growth could continue to be an important impediment to

achieving improvements in food security in some countries, even when world population

as a whole ceases growing sometime during the present century. Another important

factor determining demand for food is urbanization. As of the end of 2008, more people

now live in urban settings than in rural areas (UNFPA 2008), with urbanization rates

varying from less than 30 per cent in South Asia to near 80 per cent in developed

countries and Latin America. The next few decades will see unprecedented urban

growth, particularly in Africa and Asia. Urbanization has considerable impact on patterns

of food consumption in general and on demand for livestock products in particular:

urbanization often stimulates improvements in infrastructure, including cold chains, and

this allows perishable goods to be traded more widely (Delgado 2005). A third driver

leading to increased demand for livestock products is income growth. Between 1950

and 2000, there was an annual global per capita income growth rate of 2.1 per cent

(Maddison 2003). As income grows, so does expenditure on livestock products

(Steinfeld et al. 2006). Economic growth is expected to continue into the future, typically

at rates ranging from between 1.0 and 3.1 per cent (van Vuuren et al. 2009). Growth in

industrialized countries is projected to be slower than that in developing economies

(Rosegrant et al. 2009).

H. Steinfeld and S. Mack

H. Steinfeld is Senior Officer (Programme, Policy and Planning) and S. Mack is Animal
Production Officer (Rural Development) in the Animal Production and Health Division,
FAO, Rome, Italy

A planning perspective
An approach to livestock-sector planning
Conclusions
Bibliography

Livestock make a major, although largely underestimated, contribution to rural

development in developing countries. They produce food, enhance crop production and
provide additional economic goods and services as well as cash income. The inclusion
of livestock diversifies and increases total farm production and income, provides year-
round employment and disperses risk. Sales of livestock products provide funds for
purchasing crop inputs and for financing farm investments. Livestock often form the
major capital reserve of farming households and, in general, enhance the economic
viability and sustainability of a farming system.

Despite these positive contributions to agriculture and economic development, many

formal livestock projects have failed to meet their objectives, with the result that donors
are becoming more and more reluctant to support such developments. Furthermore,
animal production is increasingly being viewed far more critically:

 intensive production systems, particularly in industrialized countries, are seen as a

major source of pollution;

 increasing ruminant numbers in developing countries are being associated with the
degradation of the rangelands and soil erosion;

 livestock development is said to favour the richer segments of society - both producers
and consumers - rather than the most vulnerable;

 livestock are thought to compete directly with humans for cereal grains.

Such controversies and the inherent complexity of livestock production impose

constraints that have to be addressed and which pose particular challenges not
normally faced by the agricultural planner. Yet it is the very complexity of animal
production systems that also offers some of the greatest opportunities for development.
Livestock, because of their linkages with the overall farming system, make valuable
entry points for wider agricultural development programmes. To exploit these
opportunities, an integrated approach that combines both technical and institutional
interventions is required.

In many countries, the difficulties associated with increasing sustainable animal

production are exacerbated by limited public-sector investment and weak, ineffective
support services. Programmes and projects are often poorly designed and inadequately
targeted, leading to the inefficient and fragmented allocation of scarce development
resources. Policies related to the livestock sector are often incoherent with ill-defined
goals and with little or no assessment of their likely impact. The lack of consistent,
integrated strategies that focus limited resources on identified and attainable goals
remains a major constraint to livestock development. The situation is further
complicated in that livestock, especially cattle, represent wealth and status and, as a
consequence, are disproportionately owned by policy-makers who have a clear vested
interest - an interest that is not necessarily beneficial to livestock development in
general.

There is obviously a need for an effective policy and planning framework that will
optimize development resources and provide the necessary support and economic
environment to allow a country's livestock resources to express its potential. This is
reflected in the number of countries that have embarked on preparing strategic plans to
develop their livestock subsectors, either with their own resources or, increasingly, with
the assistance of agencies such as FAO.

A planning perspective

For the agricultural planner, difficulties are related not only to the complexity of livestock
production systems but also to an inability to understand how these systems function -
this is primarily a problem of quantification and comprehension. One consequence is
that development opportunities are often ignored, particularly the potential for using
livestock as a catalyst to drive agricultural development. An understanding of the
production factors and processes that affect animal production is a prerequisite for
livestock development.

Production factors

Livestock. Animals themselves are the major resource, but their mobility makes them a
difficult resource to quantify, especially under the extensive management systems that
predominate in much of the developing world. While this may create problems for the
government statistician and the tax collector, it is unique in that it allows for the
exploitation of feed resources for which there are no alternative productive uses, such
as extensive arid, semi-arid and cold savannahs, crop residues and agricultural fallow.
Capital. Livestock ownership is more skewed than ownership of or access to land, and,
as a consequence, livestock development, especially if it concerns larger and more
expensive species such as cattle, tends to produce benefits of low equity. Many non-
livestock owners are often precluded from livestock development because of lack of
capital or credit. Yet, in many farming systems, livestock constitute the main, if not the
only, capital reserve of farming households and, importantly, one that can be readily
realized. As such, livestock serve as a strategic reserve that adds stability to the overall
fanning system. In this respect, a mix of species increases stability; for example, cattle
represent a long-term investment whereas sheep, goats and poultry are primarily
shorter-term investments and sources of petty cash.

Feed. Whereas animals can substitute for capital, purchased feeds can substitute for
land, creating "landless" production systems, where land is no longer a production
factor. These are not primary production systems in the strictest sense, but more
industrial and almost exclusively demand-driven. Conversely, extensive pastoral
systems depend exclusively on forage, the availability of which is both seasonal and
highly dependent on natural factors, most notably rainfall. Such systems are essentially
resource-driven and less responsive to price changes.

Many animal feeds also have alternative uses, either for human consumption or for
industrial use. These competing demands are determined by price and availability of the
commodity, its use and the value of the end-product. In this respect, the more intensive,
demand-driven production systems are an important alternative use of these
commodities, and, as such, feed-conversion efficiency becomes an important
productivity indicator and management objective.

Land. Escalating ruminant (large and small) populations, agricultural encroachment and
decline in traditional authority have put an increasing strain on "open access" feed
resources - particularly extensive grazing areas leading, in extreme cases, to
irreversible degradation. The conflict between communal ownership of land and private
ownership of livestock - the classic "tragedy of the commons" - has resulted in a
disequilibrium that continues to threaten the ecological stability of many of these fragile
environments. However, an increasing body of evidence suggests that these rangeland
ecosystems have adapted and are more resistant to heavy stocking than previously
thought, and that opportunistic range management often is an efficient and ecologically
sound resource use (Behnke, Scoones and Kerven, 1993). For the livestock planner,
these are particularly complex and sensitive issues that must be addressed. Technical
options are limited, and certainly solutions cannot be found without cognizance of the
wider institutional and social contexts.

Access to water, especially in the extensive rangeland systems, is a fundamental

prerequisite for livestock production. Historically, water has governed both access to
and Use of these resources and has provided a brake on exploitation. Major
environmental issues have recently arisen over the provision of new water sources,
however, particularly perennial boreholes.
Labour. Labour is the other important resource for which livestock production has a
specific requirement. Typically, livestock production is more labour-intensive and less
seasonal than crop production, and can utilize family labour that usually has a low
opportunity cost. The distribution of labour, responsibilities and benefits tends to be
favourable for women, especially with the smaller animal species, which they
themselves may own. Since women are largely responsible for the day-to-day
management of the household, any development programme must take their time
availability into account.

The production process

Livestock production tends to be more complex than crop production. Production cycles,
although seasonally influenced, are less pronounced with livestock. Some species have
very short reproductive cycles (rabbits, poultry), while those of others (large ruminants)
are far longer. In more intensive production systems, seasonal influences can be offset
by modifying the environment through improved nutrition and artificially controlled light
and temperature.

Unlike intensive production systems, which produce a single product, many of the
production systems common to the developing world produce a range of commodities.
These may include a mixture of consumables and services that provide cash,
subsistence and inputs (draught power and manure) into the farm enterprise. Since
livestock so often have a pivotal role in the overall farm system, any constraint imposed
on livestock may also restrict the system as a whole.

Animals also have an important asset function. Many smallholders, particularly in

mixed-farming systems, prefer the flow products (milk, draught, manure) rather than the
end-products (meat, hides and skins) since selling their animals for slaughter entails the
permanent loss of flow products. Only in larger herds or flocks can meat offtake be
regarded as a flow product. Flow products generate a regular cash income, unlike end-
products or crop revenues, and the importance of regular cash flow, however small, is
often underestimated in many development efforts, especially within the smallholder
sector.

Given the perishable nature of animal products, development beyond household

consumption requires marketing and processing facilities that may not be readily
available. Milk, for example, not only needs a continuous outlet, but also transport,
storage and processing facilities. This interdependency between animal production and
the links in the marketing chain increases as systems intensify.

The close relationship between domesticated animals and humans evident throughout
history continues, and many societies have strong socio-cultural values attached to their
animals. In most cases, these values reflect specific economic attributes and have
important implications for livestock development.
Risk is another important factor in livestock production. Extensive livestock production
systems are exposed to particularly high risks as a result of natural factors such as
drought and disease, whereas in mixed-farming systems livestock help to reduce the
overall risks to the enterprise. As production systems intensify, the production risks from
natural causes decrease and are replaced by economic risks, such as price fluctuations
and taxes. Producers can mitigate risk through diversification (mixed farming and mixed
species), flexibility (choice of stocking rate) and increased productivity. The design of
livestock development strategies must take these factors into account through risk
analysis (Savvides, 1994).

Consumption

On the consumption side, livestock products have characteristics that require specie-1
attention in the planning process. Meat, milk and eggs are all perishable products that
need refrigeration and careful handling if they are to remain fit for human consumption.
Such processes impose certain infrastructural requirements that may be beyond the
resources of a given country or even a region. This is a major contributing factor to the
small amount of milk products marketed in sub-Saharan Africa, for example.

Typically, livestock products also have a high elasticity of demand but a low elasticity of
supply, particularly in land-based smallholder production. In many countries the demand
for animal products increases rapidly with expanding urbanization (and changes in
consumption patterns), growth in per caput income and a growing population. Because
of this demand pattern it has been argued that livestock development tends to favour
the higher-income sectors of society - an isolated view, yet one that has deterred
potential donors - but does not adequately take account of benefits on the supply side.

All edible livestock products have high nutritive value. They are especially rich in
protein, with a favourable composition of amino acids. Milk availability is one of the
major contributors to the alleviation of malnutrition among the more vulnerable sections
of society, most notably children. The excessive consumption of animal products, which
is now recognized as a serious health hazard, is primarily a concern in affluent
societies, while in developing countries consumption levels remain low. Indeed, animal
fat provides a valuable contribution to the daily energy requirements in these countries.

An approach to livestock-sector planning

The FAO Animal Production and Health Division (AGA) is developing a methodology to
provide a rational basis for livestock-sector planning that will assist governments in
determining their own policies and priorities. The principles described apply equally to a
particular segment, species or geographical region of the subsector-milk production,
animal health or the subhumid zone, for example - and to the subsector as a whole. The
chosen approach can be described as interdisciplinary, as it combines the biological,
social and economic sciences, dynamic, in that it uses scenarios to anticipate future
development, and systems-oriented.
In general, most livestock development strategies have similar aims, namely, to:

 conserve the natural resource base;

 raise productivity through better utilization of available resources: capital (animals),

land and labour;

 expand production where there is a sufficient demand and resources can be utilized at
reasonable cost to the environment;

 optimize the allocation of development resources through rational administration and

management.

A strategy for livestock development has a number of technical and socio-economic

dimensions that need to be addressed if it is to have any relevance or acceptance. To
make the planning process simple and transparent, the approach adopted by AGA
follows the logical sequence of:

 Diagnosis, An analysis of the current performance of the livestock subsector, its

potentials and constraints.

 Prescription. A creative phase in which programmes and policy options are formulated
and designed to address identified constraints and potentials.

 Prognosis. A comparative (with and without) assessment of the likely impact and
implications of the prescribed programmes and policy options.

The analytical process usually proceeds from the bottom up, that is, from the lowest
production unit to its effects on the national economy, and contains an ex ante
evaluation of ongoing as well as previous programmes and policy interventions. The
process is interactive in that the results of any comparative assessment may require
modifications to either the design or further analysis. The final result is the presentation
of a series of development options along with a corresponding set of recommended
actions and policies required if the options are to be implemented. Implicit in the
success of any such exercise is a high degree of national "ownership" resulting from the
maximum involvement of nationals in the complete sequence through such elements as
rapid rural appraisals (RRAs), national consultancies and workshops and expert
working groups.

With regard to livestock policy analysis and formulation, the concept of induced
innovation (Hayami and Ruthan, 1985) is applied. According to this concept, the choice
of technology is induced by a relative abundance of production factors, such as those
introduced above, for example, in the case of livestock production. For a number of the
effects that livestock production can have, such as those on the environment and on
human health, no markets exist. These effects are referred to as market failures, or
externalities, which can be both positive and negative. Where these externalities exist,
such as in the case of waste disposal from intensive pork and poultry production,
incentives or regulations are part of policies that aim to reflect more accurately the
implicit value of a non-marketed commodity, such as human health or the environment.
Incentives and regulations affect factor use as they infringe on factor prices and, thus,
on technological choice.

The diagnosis phase

Livestock need to be placed within the overall context of the agricultural sector and the
national economy as a whole. The first step is usually an inventory of the natural and
economic resources available for livestock production: land availability and use (by
agro-ecological zone); feed (crop residues, agro-industrial by-products, cereals,
forages, dodders); animals (breeds, etc.); water; labour; capital; public infrastructure;
and support services (marketing, input supply). Existing production methods and
productivity, processing, storage and marketing all need to be assessed in relation to
the available resources.

In many developing countries, traditional and commercial production systems exist

alongside one another with little or no linkage between them. Industrial systems of
poultry, pig and, to a lesser extent, dairy production are demand-driven and responsive
to changing market conditions, due, in part, to their short productive cycles and a wide
and varying range (in price and availability) of potential feeds. Conversely, traditional
ruminant production systems are inelastic in supply and sometimes even respond
inversely to price increases, as was evident in the negative beef supply response
observed in Latin America (Jarvis, 1986) and in southern Africa (Doran, Low and Kemp,
1979).

A number of macroeconomic policies also have direct and indirect impacts on livestock
production. Pricing policies - often through the manipulation of exchange rates - wages
and interest rates determine the costs and returns of livestock production. Fiscal
policies govern government expenditures on, for example, rural infrastructures and
producer or consumer subsidies. Monetary policy determines the availability and cost of
agricultural credit, while trade policies (tariffs, quotas and export subsidies) regulate the
import (produce and raw material) and export of livestock products and animal feeds.
Institutional structures have a bearing on a wide range of support services that affect
livestock production, such as marketing (marketing boards), quality and hygiene
standards, extension and research, and agricultural education. The balance between
private and public ownership of livestock-related services is becoming a critical issue,
especially as extended public services prove to be increasingly inefficient and costly to
run. These macroeconomic and sectoral policies need to be analysed as to their
relevance to livestock production; incentives and/or disincentives to livestock production
as they affect relative abundancy of production factors; and adequacy in view of likely
future developments.

In addition to these broad economic policies, countries usually pursue more specific
sectoral policies that may or may not be interrelated with the overall policy framework.
These policies usually refer to issues such as: land tenure; input supplies and pricing
(feed industry, veterinary supplies, genetic resources); labour supply and wages;
specific livestock credits; marketing of livestock products; product processing facilities;
and capacity and performance of extension, training and research institutions.

On a microlevel, policies may be analysed using econometric methods for farm

household data, integrated farm household models, mathematical programming or a
policy analysis matrix (FAO, 1994).

Livestock and the environment: finding a balance

In cooperation with eight different donors, FAO is leading a multidonor study entitled
"Interactions between livestock production systems and the environment global
perspectives and prospects". It addresses, as a follow-up to the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), the issues of livestock-
environment interaction. The objective of the study is to assess the major positive and
negative interactions between livestock production systems and natural resources. The
full report will be ready by the end of 1995.

The study's perspective is global, covering a range of representative livestock production

systems in both developing and developed countries. Eleven production systems have
been identified using a classification of agro-ecological zones and land use, which were
then grouped into mixed farming systems, pastoral or extensive grazing systems and
systems of landless intensive livestock production

For each of these system groups, livestock-environment interactions are rated for a
number of interaction domains, including range utilization, wildlife diversity, crop-
livestock interactions, waste disposal from - production (manure) and from processing
(slaughterhouses, tanneries, dairies), methane emissions and domestic animal diversity.
In addition, more indirect interactions, such as those related to concentrate feed demand
and livestock-induced deforestation, are also appraised.

A number of the case-studies presented were developed to illustrate the livestock-

environment interactions and impacts that have been observed. These case-studies will
also explore approaches that can be implemented either to reduce environmental
degradation or to enhance the process of building more stable production systems.

It can be concluded that product) on systems vary considerably in their impact on the
environment. Most beneficial effects are found in mixed farming systems, whereas
landless systems are facing a range of environmental problems, mostly related to waste
and resource use. Pastoral systems are mostly environmentally balanced, but this
equilibrium is endangered as demographic pressure persists. Within production systems,
production intensity is a major factor determining the nature of livestock-environment
interactions.
Livestock production, systems. Within identified farming systems, farm households
can be defined according to their available (or lack of) resources, production patterns,
productivity and income. Such analysis is usually derived from diagnostic surveys such
as RRAs and farm management budgeting (FMB). The breakdown of a livestock
subsector into various production systems is justified given the differences that exist in
available resources and applied technologies, as well as in primary products and their
uses (subsistence or market-oriented), making it easier to deal with typologies. It is at
this level where most development efforts are concentrated, and in the majority of
countries this usually entails a breakdown of the livestock subsector into production
systems broadly based on agro-ecological zones and socio-economic patterns.
Livestock production systems are basically a subset of farming systems (Ruthenberg,
1980), although their analysis must comprise the whole farm household.

Available feedstuffs may be classified by their physical properties (dry matter, texture,
fibre content), chemical properties (protein, energy) or origin (on-farm, purchased,
communal). Inadequate feed intake and/or unbalanced diets are usually the primary
production constraint. In addition, feed is also a major cost component, especially in the
more intensive production systems. Available feed resources need to be carefully
assessed, therefore, with estimated feed requirements in mind.

Livestock resources consist of various species; their breeds and genetic potential, herd
composition and ownership are the predominant determinants of a production system.
These factors change as production systems become more an integral part of the
economy. With increasing commercialization, productivity and demand, there is a move
from predominantly resource-driven systems to those primarily demand-driven.

Production systems may also be classified according to their main product(s) - meat,
milk, eggs, manure and wool/fibre - as well as by services such as draught, transport
and breeding. Systems may be further differentiated based on a scale ranging from
"extensive" to "intensive", determined largely by their input-output relationships.

Livestock and their products fulfill different and often complementary functions. Apart
from the marketed outputs, these include inputs to crop production (draught power and
manure) and home consumption (subsistence), as well as their asset function and
socio-cultural importance. At the farm level, therefore, livestock must be viewed in the
context of the overall farm-household system, and the complex interactions involved
must be understood technically as well as economically and socially. Where livestock
are an integral part of the farm household economy, flow products (draught, manure,
milk), risk alleviation, capital accumulation and the utilization of family labour with low
opportunity costs are frequently the dominant production objectives. This is often in
direct contrast to state objectives, which favour end-products (meat, hides, skins), and
has been one reason why so many government livestock development initiatives have
failed.

Strategy and programme formulation

A development strategy needs to anticipate and identify those forces that drive a
particular livestock production system and the subsector as a whole. These can include
population growth, market development (urbanization and income growth),
technological change and a changing resource base. An understanding of the direction
and speed with which these factors may change, both at the sectoral and farm levels, is
necessary so that future programmes can respond accordingly. As has been stressed,
technological choice depends on the relative abundance of production factors, such as
labour, land and capital.

Implicit in this process is the development of "what if" scenarios to anticipate the likely
implications of any change. For demand-driven production systems, the variables
usually include national and per caput incomes, population and population growth,
product prices and price and income elasticities. For resource-driven production
systems, trend projections that take account of anticipated changes in factor
proportions, advances in technology and likely increases (decreases) in productivity and
resource availability are required. Any gap between supply and demand will have to be
met either by expanding commercial production or by imports. The construction of
scenarios is very often assisted by the use of computerized models (Hallam, 1983);
FAO has recently produced an updated and expanded version of this sectoral model.

The first step is to develop the "without" intervention scenario by projecting future
production and consumption trends. This will indicate gaps in supply, overuse of natural
resources and import requirements, among other things. The next step is the
formulation of development pathways (a combination of technical and institutional
interventions) that address identified constraints, opportunities and any comparative
advantages. Interventions then need to be evaluated under "with" and "without"
scenarios, which involves sensitivity analysis of the critical variables as well as an
assessment of social and cultural acceptability. Historically this has primarily been a
top-down approach that has failed to take account of the aspirations and production
objectives of producers, resulting in the poor performance of so many livestock
development programmes. It is important, therefore, to ensure the active participation of
all interested parties (usually easier said than done!) in the formulation process.

For animal production, possible programmes and policy interventions include the
following broad classifications:

 On-farm interventions, adapted to specific agro-ecological conditions and production

systems. These interventions commonly aim at increasing the availability or utilization of
local feeds, control of economically important diseases (internal and external parasites)
and/or improved housing and management.

 Institutional changes, including the structure and function of support services covering
input supply, research, extension and training, processing and marketing and credit.
Institutional programmes often complement technical interventions and aim at providing
a support framework for livestock production that should be both cost-effective and
congruent with overall government policies. The concept of "private" and "public" good
will increasingly determine who will pay for such services.

 Genetic improvement programmes aimed at improving the livestock resource base.

Options include within-breed selection of adapted indigenous breeds, substitution with
exotic breeds or cross-breeding. The choice largely depends on the production system,
its objectives and the resources at its disposal. Experience has shown serious
misjudgement with policies aimed at importing exotic breeds with a corresponding
neglect of indigenous breeds in many developing countries. Whatever breeding
programme is adopted, equal attention needs to be given to the dissemination of
improved genetic material. Dissemination concerns the institutional aspects as well as
the choice of biotechnology, such as artificial insemination and embryo transfer.

 Animal health programmes aimed at limiting the impact of disease on animal

production. Policy issues concern who will provide and pay for such services. Foremost
is the need to control and protect (quarantine) the national livestock resource from
major epizootic diseases, such as rinderpest, which is clearly a "public" good. Disease
monitoring, veterinary investigation and legislation (public health and meat inspection)
also fall within the public domain. On the other hand, control of diseases that cause
production losses, for example, helminthiasis, is primarily a "private" good and
determined on grounds of cost effectiveness. In this case, institutional policies that
encourage the provision of private clinical services are required.

 Processing and marketing policies related to investment in the necessary

infrastructure that enables livestock products to safely supply existing demands as well
as those of the future. Such specific issues as the design of structures, equipment,
training and quality, along with the question of the degree of state intervention
(marketing boards, etc.) in the market, must also be addressed.

Impact assessment

The predictive phase of the strategy design and planning process examines the various
policy options and their implications in light of the government's broader development
objectives. Strategy impact assessments usually address issues such as:

 economic efficiency;
 distribution and equity considerations (of both costs and benefits);
 stability (food supply, income, export earnings, etc.) and risk considerations;
 sustainability (environmental, financial and institutional);
 conformity with government objectives.

This is primarily a "bottom-up" procedure looking at the performance of the individual

animal through to the production systems and finally the subsector as a whole. At the
production system level, interventions can be assessed in terms of their economic,
social and environmental impacts on households. It is at this level where interventions
that are usually aimed at increasing productivity (mortality, fertility, carcass weights,
growth rates, milk yield, etc.) have to be shown to be both technically and financially
viable. The results of these production system assessments may well necessitate
changes in the off-farm elements of the proposed programme, such as marketing,
processing, finance, extension and research.

Programme and policy implementation will also have implications at the sectoral and
country levels. And some of these implications will have an impact on programme
implementation as well, where they relate to the capacity of the ancillary services and
industries to support and service the proposed development. These can be manipulated
through price, monetary and trade policies, institutional reform and land regulations,
which are mostly under direct government control. Those under private control can only
be encouraged through supportive action. The impact of a successful outcome of the
proposed programmes also needs to be assessed. Increased production will have an
impact on income, consumption and labour (availability and productivity), as well as
consequences for the rest of the agricultural system. In its involvement in this
assessment process, FAO can draw on its international experience to help avoid
mistakes and to benefit from successes elsewhere.

As a result of the impact assessment, a set of development options can be presented to

the government for consideration. Each option should be accompanied by a summary
description, along with its likely impact and implications. It is the government that will
make the final choices as to whether or not on certain strategies should be implemented
and whether or not external assistance is necessary; ideally, the major donors would
have participated in the review process.

Conclusions

Livestock production has grown faster than agricultural production in most developing
countries, and this trend is likely to continue with growth rates over the next 20 years
estimated at 4.5 percent per annum. Historically, growth has come primarily from the
expansion of livestock numbers rather than an increase in productivity. If this trend
continues, it will put tremendous pressure on the available feed resources - even
assuming substantial progress in feed conversion efficiency - and this probably will be
the major challenge facing livestock planners.

The development of livestock in many developing countries is constrained by minimal

public-sector investment and inefficient and poorly coordinated support services,
however. This situation can, in part, be attributed to a lack of any consistent strategy for
livestock development, which is exacerbated by inadequate analytical tools and a lack
of information on which to base decision-making.

Clearly, increased livestock production will depend ultimately on the adoption of

appropriate technology, improved support services, market access and infrastructural
development to stimulate increased productivity. However, there must be a framework
of coherent policies and development strategies that facilitate such development and
ensure that the full potential of livestock in developing countries is exploited. FAO, with
its unique collection of expertise and development experience, is ideally placed to assist
member countries in reviewing and exploring the options for developing their livestock
resources.

Bibliography

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new models of natural variability and pastoral adaptation in African savannas. London,
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Doran, M.W., Low, A.R.C. & Kemp, R.L. 1979. Cattle as a store of wealth in
Swaziland: implications for livestock development in eastern and southern Africa. Am.
J. Agric. Econ., 61: 41-47.

FAO. 1994. Methods of microlevel analysis for agricultural programmes and policies: a

guideline for policy analysts. Rome, FAO.

Hallam, D. 1983. Livestock development planning: a quantitative framework. CAS

Paper 12, May 1983. Reading, UK, Centre for Agricultural Strategy.

Hayami, Y. & Ruthan, V.W. 1985. Agricultural development: an international

perspective. Revised ed. Baltimore, MD, USA, Johns Hopkins University Press.

Jarvis, L.S. 1986. Livestock development in Latin America. Washington, DC, USA,

World Bank.

Ruthenberg, H. 1980. Farming systems in the tropics. 3rd ed. Oxford, UK, Clarendon
Press. 424 pp.

Savvides, S. 1994. Risk analysis in investment appraisal: project appraisal, 9(1): 3-18.

Surrey, UK, Beech Tree Publishing.

The world population has grown steadily, with most people now living in urban areas

and the economy has become increasingly interconnected and globalized. Conflict and

instability have increased and become more intractable, spurring greater population

displacement. Climate change and increasing climate variability and extremes are

affecting agricultural productivity, food production and natural resources, with impacts

on food systems and rural livelihoods, including a decline in the number of farmers. All
of this has led to major shifts in the way in which food is produced, distributed and

consumed worldwide.

Development will bring food security only if it is people-centred, if it is environmentally

sound, if it is participatory, and if it builds local and national capacity for self-reliance.

These are the basic characteristics of sustainable human development. [ CITATION

Jam94 \l 1033 ]

Although food availability has increased along with the growing human population over

the last 30 years, there are still 800 million people suffering from malnutrition. This

problem is not only the result of insufficient food production and inadequate distribution,

but also of the financial inability of the poor to purchase food of reasonable quality in

adequate quantities to satisfy their needs (FAO, 1993).

 POSSIBLE MODIFIERS OF FUTURE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION AND
CONSUMPTION TRENDS

(a) Competition for resources

(i) Land
Recent assessments expect little increase in pasture land (Bruinsma 2003; MA 2005). Some
intensification in production is likely to occur in the humid–subhumid zones on the most suitable
land, where this is feasible, through the use of improved pastures and effective management. In
the more arid–semiarid areas, livestock are a key mechanism for managing risk, but population
increases are fragmenting rangelands in many places, making it increasingly difficult for
pastoralists to gain access to the feed and water resources that they have traditionally been able
to access. In the future, grazing systems will increasingly provide ecosystem goods and services
that are traded, but how future livestock production from these systems may be affected is not
clear. The mixed crop–livestock systems will continue to be critical to future food security, as
two-thirds of the global population live in these systems. Some of the higher potential mixed
systems in Africa and Asia are already facing resource pressures, but there are various responses
possible, including efficiency gains and intensification options (Herrero et al. 2010). Increasing
competition for land in the future will also come from biofuels, driven by continued concerns
about climate change, energy security and alternative income sources for agricultural
households. Future scenarios of bioenergy use vary widely (Van Vuuren et al. 2009), and there
are large evidence gaps concerning the likely trade-offs between food, feed and fuel in
production systems in both developed and developing countries, particularly related to second-
generation bioenergy technology.

(ii) Water
Globally, freshwater resources are relatively scarce, amounting to only 2.5 per cent of all water
resources (MA 2005). Groundwater also plays an important role in water supply: between 1.5
and 3 billion people depend on groundwater for drinking, and in some regions water tables are
declining unremittingly (Rodell et al. 2009). By 2025, 64 per cent of the world's population will
live in water-stressed basins, compared with 38 per cent today (Rosegrant et al. 2002).
Increasing livestock numbers in the future will clearly add to the demand for water, particularly
in the production of livestock feed: one cubic metre of water can produce anything from about
0.5 kg of dry animal feed in North American grasslands to about 5 kg of feed in some tropical
systems (Peden et al. 2007). Several entry points for improving global livestock water
productivity exist, such as increased use of crop residues and by-products, managing the spatial
and temporal distribution of feed resources so as to better match availability with demand and
managing systems so as to conserve water resources (Peden et al. 2007). More research is
needed related to livestock–water interactions and integrated site-specific interventions, to ensure
that livestock production in the future contributes to sustainable and productive use of water
resources (Peden et al. 2007).
(b) Climate change
Climate change may have substantial effects on the global livestock sector. Livestock production
systems will be affected in various ways (table 2 and see Thornton et al. (2009) for a review),
and changes in productivity are inevitable. Increasing climate variability will undoubtedly
increase livestock production risks as well as reduce the ability of farmers to manage these risks.
At the same time, livestock food chains are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions,
accounting for perhaps 18 per cent of total anthropogenic emissions (Steinfeld et al. 2006).
Offering relatively fewer cost-effective options than other sectors such as energy, transport and
buildings, agriculture has not yet been a major player in the reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions. This will change in the future (UNFCCC 2008), although guidance will be needed
from rigorous analysis; for example, livestock consumption patterns in one country are often
associated with land-use changes in other countries, and these have to be included in national
greenhouse gas accounting exercises (Audsley et al. 2009).
Table 2.
Direct and indirect impacts of climate change on livestock production systems (adapted
from Thornton & Gerber 2010).

grazing systems non-grazing systems

direct impacts

 extreme weather events water availability

 drought and floods extreme weather events

 productivity losses (physiological stress) owing to

temperature increase

 water availability
grazing systems non-grazing systems

indirect impacts

 agro-ecological changes: increased resource price, e.g. feed and

energy

 fodder quality and quality disease epidemics

 host–pathogen interactions increased cost of animal housing, e.g.

cooling systems

 disease epidemics

Climate change will have severely deleterious impacts in many parts of the tropics and
subtropics, even for small increases in the average temperature. This is in contrast to many parts
of the temperate zone; at mid- to high latitudes, agricultural productivity is likely to increase
slightly for local mean temperature increases of 1–3°C (IPCC 2007). There is a burgeoning
literature on adaptation options, including new ways of using weather information to assist rural
communities in managing the risks associated with rainfall variability and the design and piloting
of livestock insurance schemes that are weather-indexed (Mude 2009). Many factors determine
whether specific adaptation options are viable in particular locations. More extensive adaptation
than is currently occurring is needed to reduce vulnerability to future climate change, and
adaptation has barriers, limits and costs (IPCC 2007).
Similarly, there is a burgeoning literature on mitigation in agriculture. There are several options
related to livestock, including grazing management and manure management. Global agriculture
could offset 5–14% (with a potential maximum of 20%) of total annual CO2 emissions for prices
ranging from $20 to 100 per t CO2 eq (Smith et al. 2008). Of this total, the mitigation potential of
various strategies for the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to about 4 per cent
of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030 (Thornton & Herrero submitted), which
could still be worth of the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO2 eq. Several of
these mitigation options also have adaptive benefits, such as growing agroforestry species that
can sequester carbon, which can also provide high-quality dietary supplements for cattle. Such
carbon payments could represent a relatively large amount of potential income for resource-poor
livestock keepers in the tropics. In the more intensive systems, progress could be made in
mitigating GHG emissions from the livestock sector via increases in the efficiency of production
using available technology, for the most part, and this may involve some shifting towards
monogastric species.

(c) Socio-cultural modifiers

Social and cultural drivers of change are having profound effects on livestock systems in
particular places, although it is often unclear how these drivers play out in relation to impacts on
livestock and livestock systems. Livestock have multiple roles in human society. They contribute
substantially and directly to food security and to human health. For poor and under-nourished
people, particularly children, the addition of modest amounts of livestock products to their diets
can have substantial benefits for physical and mental health (Neumann et al. 2003).
Livestock's contribution to livelihoods, particularly those of the poor in developing countries, is
also well recognized. Livestock generate income by providing both food and non-food products
that the household can sell in formal or informal markets. Non-food products such as wool, hides
and skins are important sources of income in some regions: wool production in the high-altitude
tropical regions of Bolivia, Peru or Nepal, for example. Hides and skins from home-slaughtered
animals are rarely processed, as the returns may not justify the costs involved (Otte & Upton
2005). Livestock acquisition as a pathway out of poverty has been documented by Kristjanson et
al. (2004) in western Kenya, for example. Livestock provide traction mainly in irrigated, densely
populated areas, and allow cropping in these places. They provide nutrients in the form of
manure, a key resource particularly for the mixed systems of sub-Saharan Africa. Livestock also
serve as financial instruments, by providing households with an alternative for storing savings or
accumulated capital, and they can be sold and transformed into cash as needed and so also
provide an instrument of liquidity, consumption smoothing and insurance. For some poorer
households, livestock can provide a means of income diversification to help deal with times of
stress.
In addition to their food security, human health, economic and environmental roles, livestock
have important social and cultural roles. In many parts of Africa, social relationships are partly
defined in relation to livestock, and the size of a household's livestock holding may confer
considerable social importance on it. The sharing of livestock with others is often a means to
create or strengthen social relationships, through their use as dowry or bride price, as allocations
to other family members and as loans (Kitalyi et al. 2005). Social status in livestock-based
communities is often associated with leadership and access to (and authority over) natural,
physical and financial resources.
Livestock may have considerable cultural value in developed countries also. Local breeds have
often been the drivers of specific physical landscapes (e.g. extensive pig farming in the
Mediterranean oak forests of the Iberian peninsula); as such, local breeds can be seen as critical
elements of cultural networks (Gandini & Villa 2003).
Compared with the biophysical environment, the social and cultural contexts of livestock and
livestock production are probably not that well understood, but these contexts are changing
markedly in some places. External pressures are being brought to bear on traditional open-access
grazing lands in southern Kenya, for example, such as increasing population density and
increasing livestock–wildlife competition for scarce resources. At the same time, many Maasai
feel that there is no option but to go along with subdivision, a process that is already well under
way in many parts of the region, because they see it as the only way in which they can gain
secure tenure of their land and water, even though they themselves are well aware that
subdivision is likely to harm their long-term interests and wellbeing (Reid et al. 2008). There are
thus considerable pressures on Maasai communities and societies, as many households become
more connected to the cash economy, access to key grazing resources becomes increasingly
problematic, and cultural and kinship networks that have supported them in the past increasingly
feel the strain. Inevitably, the cultural and social roles of livestock will continue to change, and
many of the resultant impacts on livelihoods and food security may not be positive.
Social and cultural changes are likewise taking place elsewhere. In European agriculture, there is
already heightened emphasis on, and economic support for, the production of ecosystems goods
and services, and this will undoubtedly increase in the future (Deuffic & Candau 2006). In the
uplands of the UK, recent social changes have seen increasing demand for leisure provision and
access to rural areas. At the same time, there are increasing pressures on the social functions and
networks associated with the traditional farming systems of these areas, which have high cultural
heritage value and considerable potential to supply the public goods that society is likely to
demand in the future (Burton et al. 2005).

(d) Ethical concerns as a driver of change

Ethical concerns may play an increasing role in affecting the production and consumption of
livestock products. Recent high-profile calls to flock to the banner of global vegetarianism,
backed by exaggerated claims of livestock's role in anthropogenic global greenhouse gas
emissions, serve mostly to highlight the need for rigorous analysis and credible numbers that can
help inform public debate about these issues: there is much work to do in this area.
But science has already had a considerable impact on some ethical issues. Research into animal
behaviour has provided evidence of animals' motivations and their mental capacities, which by
extension provides strong support for the notion of animal sentience (i.e. animals' capacity to
sense and feel), which in turn has provided the basis for EU and UK legislation that enshrines the
concept of animal sentience in law (Lawrence 2009). Recently, European government strategies
are tending to move away from legislation as the major mechanism for fostering animal welfare
improvements to a greater concentration on collective action on behalf of all parties with
interests in animal welfare, including consumers (Lawrence 2008). There is conflicting evidence
as to the potential for adding value to animal products through higher welfare standards. There
are common questions regarding the robustness of consumers' preferences regarding welfare-
branded, organic and local food, for example, particularly in times of considerable economic
uncertainty.
While there are differences between different countries in relation to animal welfare legislation,
animal welfare is an increasingly global concern. Part of this probably arises as a result of the
forces of globalization and international trade, but in many developing countries the roots of
animal welfare may be different and relate more to the value that livestock have to different
societies: the sole or major source of livelihood (in some marginal environments in SSA, for
example), the organizing principle of society and culture (the Maasai, for instance), investment
and insurance vehicles and sources of food, traction and manure, for example (Kitalyi et al.
2005).
Improving animal welfare need not penalize business returns and indeed may increase profits.
For instance (and as noted above), measurements of functional traits indicate that focusing on
breeding dairy cows for milk yield alone is unfavourably correlated with reductions in fertility
and health traits (Lawrence et al. 2004). The most profitable bulls are those that produce
daughters that yield rather less milk but are healthier and longer lived: the costs of producing less
milk can be more than matched by the benefits of decreased health costs and a lower herd
replacement rate. Identifying situations where animal welfare can be increased along with
profits, and quantifying these trade-offs, requires integrated assessment frameworks that can
handle the various and often complex inter-relationships between animal welfare, management
and performance (Lawrence & Stott 2009).

(e) Wildcard drivers of change

There is considerable uncertainty related to technological development and to social and cultural
change. This section briefly outlines an arbitrary selection of wildcards, developments that could
have enormous implications for the livestock sector globally, either negatively (highly
disruptive) or positively (highly beneficial).

(i) Artificial meat (more correctly, in vitro meat)

From a technological point of view, this may not be a wildcard at all, as its development is
generally held to be perfectly feasible (Cuhls 2008), and indeed research projects on it have been
running for a decade already. There are likely to be some issues associated with social
acceptability, although presumably meat ‘grown in vats’ could be made healthier by changing its
composition and made much more hygienic than traditional meat, as it would be cultured in
sterile conditions. In vitro meat could potentially bypass many of the public health issues that are
currently associated with livestock-based meat. The development and uptake of in vitro meat on
a large scale would unquestionably be hugely disruptive to the traditional livestock sector. It
would raise critical issues regarding livestock keeping and livelihoods of the resource-poor in
many developing countries, for example. On the other hand, massive reductions in livestock
numbers could contribute substantially to the reduction of greenhouse gases, although the net
effects would depend on the resources needed to produce in vitro meat. There are many issues
that would need to be considered, including the effects on rangelands of substantial decreases in
the number of domesticated grazing animals, and some of the environmental and socio-cultural
impacts would not be positive. There could also be impacts on the amenity value of landscapes
with no livestock in some places. Commercial in vitro meat production is not likely to happen
any time soon, however: at least another decade of research is needed, and then there will still be
the challenges of scale and cost to be overcome.

(ii) Nanotechnology
This refers to an extremely dynamic field of research and application associated with particles of
1–100 nm in size (the size range of many molecules). Some particles of this size have peculiar
physical and chemical properties, and it is such peculiarities that nanotechnology seeks to
exploit. Nanotechnology is a highly diverse field, and includes extensions of conventional device
physics, completely new approaches based upon molecular self-assembly and the development
of new materials with nanoscale dimensions. There is even speculation as to whether matter can
be directly controlled at the atomic scale. Some food and nutrition products containing nanoscale
additives are already commercially available, and nanotechnology is in widespread use in
advanced agrichemicals and agrichemical application systems (Brunori et al. 2008). The next
few decades may well see nanotechnology applied to various areas in animal management.
Nanosized, multipurpose sensors are already being developed that can report on the
physiological status of animals, and advances can be expected in drug delivery methods using
nanotubes and other nanoparticles that can be precisely targeted. Nanoparticles may be able to
affect nutrient uptake and induce more efficient utilization of nutrients for milk production, for
example. One possible approach to animal waste management involves adding nanoparticles to
manure to enhance biogas production from anaerobic digesters or to reduce odours (Scott 2006).
There are, however, considerable uncertainties concerning the possible human health and
environmental impacts of nanoparticles, and these risks will have to be addressed by regulation
and legislation: at present, for all practical purposes, nanotechnology is unregulated (Speiser
2008). Brunori et al. (2008) see nanotechnology as potentially a highly disruptive driver, and the
ongoing debate as to the pros and cons is currently not well informed by objective information
on the risks involved: much more information is required on its long-term impacts.
Nanotechnology could redefine the entire notion of agriculture and many other human activities
(Cuhls 2008).

(iii) Deepening social concerns about specific technology

Much evidence points to a serious disconnect between science and public perceptions. Marked
distrust of science is a recurring theme in polls of public perceptions of nuclear energy, genetic
modification and, spectacularly, anthropogenic global warming. One of several key reasons for
this distrust is a lack of credible, transparent and well-communicated risk analyses associated
with many of the highly technological issues of the day. This lack was noted above in relation to
nanotechnology, but it applies in many other areas as well. The tools of science will be critical
for bringing about food security and wellbeing for a global population of more than nine billion
people in 2050 in the face of enormous technological, climatic and social challenges.
Technology is necessary for the radical redirection of global food systems that many believe is
inevitable, but technology alone is not sufficient: the context has to be provided whereby
technology can build knowledge, networks and capacity (Kiers et al. 2008). One area where
there are numerous potential applications to agriculture is the use of transgenic methodology to
develop new or altered strains of livestock. These applications include ‘… improved milk
production and composition, increased growth rate, improved feed usage, improved carcass
composition, increased disease resistance, enhanced reproductive performance, and increased
prolificacy’ (Wheeler 2007, p. 204). Social concerns could seriously jeopardize even the
judicious application of such new science and technology in providing enormous economic,
environmental and social benefits. If this is to be avoided, technology innovation has to take
fully into account the health and environmental risks to which new technology may give rise.
Serious and rapid attention needs to be given to risk analysis and communications policy.
Go to:

5. CONCLUSIONS
What is the future for livestock systems globally? Several assessments agree that increases in the
demand for livestock products, driven largely by human population growth, income growth and
urbanization, will continue for the next three decades at least. Globally, increases in livestock
productivity in the recent past have been driven mostly by animal science and technology, and
scientific and technological developments in breeding, nutrition and animal health will continue
to contribute to increasing potential production and further efficiency and genetic gains. Demand
for livestock products in the future, particularly in developed countries, could be heavily
moderated by socio-economic factors such as human health concerns and changing socio-
cultural values.
In the future, livestock production is likely to be increasingly characterized by differences
between developed and developing countries, and between highly intensive production systems
on the one hand and smallholder and agropastoral systems on the other. How the various driving
forces will play out in different regions of the world in the coming decades is highly uncertain,
however. Of the many uncertainties, two seem over-arching. First, can future demand for
livestock products be met through sustainable intensification in a carbon-constrained economy?
Some indications have been given above of the increasing pressures on natural resources such as
water and land; the increasing demand for livestock products will give rise to considerable
competition for land between food and feed production; increasing industrialization of livestock
production may lead to challenging problems of pollution of air and water; the biggest impacts of
climate change are going to be seen in livestock and mixed systems in developing countries
where people are already highly vulnerable; the need to adapt to climate change and to mitigate
greenhouse emissions will undoubtedly add to the costs of production in different places; and the
projected growth in biofuels may have substantial additional impacts on competition for land and
on food security.
A second over-arching uncertainty is, will future livestock production have poverty alleviation
benefits? The industrialization of livestock production in many parts of the world, both
developed and developing, is either complete or continuing apace. The increasing demand for
livestock products continues to be a key opportunity for poverty reduction and economic growth,
although the evidence of the last 10 years suggests that only a few countries have taken
advantage of this opportunity effectively (Dijkman 2009). Gura (2008) documents many cases
where the poor have been disadvantaged by the industrialization of livestock production in
developing countries, as well as highlighting the problems and inadequacies of commercial,
industrial breeding lines, once all the functions of local breeds are genuinely taken into account.
The future role of smallholders in global food production and food security in the coming
decades is unclear. Smallholders currently are critical to food security for the vast majority of the
poor, and this role is not likely to change significantly in the future, particularly in SSA. But
increasing industrialization of livestock production may mean that smallholders continue to miss
out on the undoubted opportunities that exist. There is no lack of suggestions as to what is
needed to promote the development of sustainable and profitable smallholder livestock
production: significant and sustained innovation in national and global livestock systems
(Dijkman 2009); increasing regulation to govern contracts along food commodity chains,
including acceptance and guarantee of collective rights and community control (Gura 2008); and
building social protection and strengthening links to urban areas (Wiggins 2009). Probably all of
these things are needed, headed by massive investment, particularly in Africa (World Bank
2009).
It is thought that humankind's association with domesticated animals goes back to around 10 000
BC, a history just about as long as our association with domesticated plants. What is in store for
this association during the coming century is far from clear, although it is suffering stress and
upheaval on several fronts. The global livestock sector may well undergo radical change in the
future, but the association is still critical to the wellbeing of millions, possibly billions, of people:
in many developing countries, at this stage in history, it has no known, viable substitute.

Auction markets

use their sales teams and field staff to encourage sales through the market. One of the
auctioneers interviewed as part of the study put this in terms of the fact that, more than ever,
they have to offer a complete livestock marketing service to their customers that is not reliant
on the expectation that a producer will bring livestock to the market at a certain time of the
year because that is what they have always done. A well-managed auction starts for the
auctioneers many weeks before the market. In the past, this was particularly true for the
specialist seasonal store and breeding stock sales, where it is required that a catalogue is
produced to advertise the sale. But today it is more and more the case with the more regular
store sales. A successful auctioneer will have a sound knowledge of the livestock that are
finishing on the clients’ farms and will increasingly advise them on many issues directly related
to livestock production and marketing (e.g. required finish of livestock, state of the market,
tagging requirements, movement regulations, transport) as well as more indirect issues like as
Single Farm Payments. Many of the auction market companies interviewed as part of this study
will also organise deadweight sales on behalf of clients, with the involvement ranging from ad-
hoc arrangements for clients tied up with TB or the use of the market as a collection centre on
non liveweight sale days, to offering a complete service liaising with the buyers and the sellers.

The Livestock Sellers

In many markets the producer is still present when the animals are sold, but it is becoming
more common for sellers to bring the livestock to the market and unload them, leaving and
then returning later to see the result of the sale. In some markets, it was reported that
producers leave the entire process to the auctioneer and do not accompany their animals to
the market at all. The occasions where producers will take livestock away because they did not
meet an expected reserve price, are, becoming fewer. This is mainly due to markets providing
an overall better service to the sellers than was the case 10 or 20 years ago. In addition it was
felt that the operation of the ‘six-day rule’, which will be discussed late, also affected this.

The Livestock Buyers

As with livestock sellers, interviews with the representative group of markets indicated that
while all markets draw customers wishing to use the market to buy livestock from the
surrounding local area, there are also increasingly customers that will travel from much further
afield. For livestock farmers wishing to purchase store and breeding livestock, this will
especially be the case for the larger seasonal/periodic/special sales. For the buyers of finished
livestock, the rationalisation that has occurred in the abattoir sector in recent years combined
with an increasing tendency of the larger plants to supply dedicated outlets, means plants need
regular supplies of particular qualities of livestock (as discussed in more detail in the next
section). This means that either their buyers will regularly come from much greater distances,
to the larger markets in particular, or their representatives may themselves be local but will be
buying livestock for a number of customers on a regional or even a national basis. Prices and
Market Fees In theory, the prices that livestock can command will be dependent on the
economic market forces of supply and demand, although at times other less obvious factors can
affect the operation of these fundamental forces (e.g. as happened when some of the previous
direct subsidy schemes were in place – see footnote 8 ). For finished cattle and sheep sales, the
transparency of price formation within the deadweight selling process is still not as clear to
many as it could be. The open outcry system of price formation seems much clearer for many,
even though in reality there may be a restricted number of buyers, with some agents buying on
more than one account. The impact of the development of deadweight selling will be discussed
in some more detail later. However, it is interesting to note that a great deal of interest about
the latest average weekly liveweight prices still comes from deadweight purchasers setting
price schedules for the following week. Livestock markets work on a commission basis for
selling livestock. Typically, in markets for finished stock this is between 2% and 4%, and often
subject to a minimum fee. A few markets will also add set charges such as entry fees or tolls on
a headage basis that vary by the type of livestock, and some will also add charges to help
recover lorry wash fees or pay for the cost of bad debt insurance.

Payment

The livestock auction company sells livestock on behalf of the producer and collects the money
from the buyer. In the past, most livestock producers selling stock expected payment from the
auctioneers on the day of the sale, whereas most finished livestock buyers would pay the
auctioneers at later date. Thus the auction market bore the risk of bad debt from the buyer,10
as well as the interest on any outstanding amounts.

Factors Affecting the Development of Livestock Auction Markets

The continued gradual decline in the number of livestock auction markets (seen in the
reduction from the estimated 259 operating regularly as sellers of finished livestock and price
reporting to MLC in England and Wales in 1990, to the 99 price reporting to AHDB in mid-2010,
referred to in Section 2), has occurred for a combination of reasons. The decline in the number
of livestock produced has been a major issue, but there have also been a number of other
significant factors. The influence of these needs to be considered to understand not only the
impact they have had, but any further impact gong forwards. The major ones this review has
identified are: ¾ Disease - the impact of the Foot and Mouth Crisis (FMD) ¾ Increase in
competition from the deadweight sale of finished livestock ¾ The Influence of the Over Thirty
Months Scheme (OTMS) ¾ The requirements to control the bovine TB crisis in the cattle
industry ¾ The effect on livestock markets of falling abattoir number

The marketplace can be best described as a space, whether small or large, where
goods, merchandise or products of the local community are traded. It is usually owned
and operated by various types of organizations, such as the city governments or
private corporations. The market is also a place where people meet and socially
interact with each other while doing business or shopping. The localness of the
marketplace is reflected by the local community‟s lifestyle, culture and heritage

Weiss (1998) writes that the marketplace is „a city within a city, with its own
economy and a way of life‟. It is not only a place where trading occurs, but where a
sense of community is built between the market vendors and their customers. The
sense of place that is present in the marketplace is vital in the discourse of urban
regeneration and cultural conservation because this is a pivotal component of the user
experience, whether for the market vendors, the local community and the tourists
(Lekagul 2002; Moughtin et al., 1999; Ryan, 1995)

Urban and Cultural Regeneration

Urban and cultural regeneration is an approach to revitalize social, cultural and
economic resources that is pertinent in the development of cities, particularly for
tourism (Lee and Said, 2012; Galdini, 2005; Wansborough and Mageean, 2000;
Gunn, 1994). Through regeneration, strategies are formulated to rehabilitate and
improve the physical, social and economic conditions of places that have significant
values in the city as parts of cultural and heritage preservation (Roberts and Sykes,
2008; Galdini, 2005). According to Roberts and Sykes (2008), urban regeneration is a
complex and dynamic process, which includes understanding the physical, social,
environmental and economic needs of cities.
The marketplace can be viewed from this wide dimension, whereas Weiss (1988)
elaborates, the philosophy behind the operations and constructions of the marketplace
connects deeply with the historical and cultural contexts, societal meanings and
experiences of its users. This suggests that cultural and social sustainability is also a
significant part of regenerating tourist attraction, particularly for a multicultural
country like Malaysia, on top of ensuring its economic viability

The City Government’s land development strategy revolves around compact

growth centers while maintaining wedges of productive open spaces

(agricultural areas). Growth centers shall be hierarchical according to

envisioned functions. These shall be linked by major roads which will also

serve as transit routes of farm products. On which Barangay Anonas is

situated in a Secondary Central Business District beside the population centre

of Brgy. San Vicente.

Regenerative design accepts and promotes ‘place’ as the primary starting point
for design and:

connecting people back to the spirit of place in a way that they are vitalized by it
and become intrinsically motivated to care for it.
(Mang, 2009, p. 5)

Regenerative design and development, by contrast, seeks understanding of

whole systems. Mang and Reed emphasize the potency of using the ‘story of
place’, together with and ‘pattern literacy’, as a means of providing:
a coherent organization of information, and the relationships and connections
between discrete pieces of information and different types of information
and wherein an
underlying narrative structure enables relating this information and these
relationships and connections in a way that reveals a holistic, understandable
picture.
(pp. 29–30)

While proponents of regenerative design emphasize place as a starting point and

major focus of design, exploring and understanding the ecological and other
systems for the broader region in which the project is situated clearly also offers
potential value for design. 

According to Azmizam (2013), there are three approaches of urban regeneration:

A. Total re-development
This method will involve total demolition of the existing building and clearance
of the site which include removal of existing business and residential occupants. The
site/ area will totally be cleared for new development. This approach is mostly
suitable to lighten up the dying area and turn it into positive and dynamic image of the
town/ city. Using this method, the areas should be required to provide better facilities
to the community and improved infrastructures.

B. Revitalization / Refurbishment
This method will involve upgrading of the existing building or site in order to
rejuvenate and gives a new lease of life to the building or the site. The method is the
combination of both preservation and redevelopment. It should maintain the area with
a bit adjustments and considerations. The purpose is to rise up the image of the town
by upgrading the area while preserving its local identity.

C. Conservation and Preservation

The method is particularly suitable for buildings or sites with historical value and
has tourism potential. The area is preserved, without intention of upgrading or
demolishes it for new development. The heritage site is precious and needed to be
taken care properly.

Urban renewal has a big influence on the urban environment. Natural and built
environment, culture, social- economy, lifestyle of local community and city‟s
identity are the factors that need to be concerned in the process of urban regeneration:

A. Urban Identity
In the process of regeneration, the important factors of urban environment which
must be conserved are the diversity and continuity appearance. As said by Holcomb
and Beauregard (1981), through urban regeneration, by respecting the town and city‟s
identity will rescue the cities from the „placelessness‟ of mass culture homogeneous
values and international architecture.