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muscle: Finance and the
Covid Crisis
Alex Brazier, Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy
and Risk
Bank of England
The Covid corporate cash‐flow deficit
No deficit Cashflow deficit
External
finance
need
£140bn
~£90bn
Total deficit after fiscal Cash buffers
action
Sources: Bank of England, Fame (Bureau van Dijk), S&P Capital IQ and Bank calculations.
Financial Response 1: Support for markets
Emergency response A run to the banks
Monthly net flows of lending to PNFCs
£ billions
40
£300bn BoE asset purchases 30
20
10
for larger companies ‐20
15 16 17 18 19 20
Source: Bank of England. Data to end‐March 2020.
Financial Response 2: Support for bank lending
All the ingredients to lend Lending so far
Lending to medium/large
companies, £25bn
CCFF £19bn
Net bond issuance ~£7bn
Guarantees Total deficit
after fiscal
action
£140bn Cash buffers
~£90bn
Strength
Total deficit after fiscal action Cash buffers Debt finance raised
Sources: Bank of England, Fame (Bureau van Dijk), S&P Capital IQ and Bank calculations.
Adding equity
Gross equity issuance by listed UK PNFCs Why it might be needed…
£ billions
2008 2009 2014 Other years 2018 2019 2020YTD
35
30 • Companies with high debt at the outset
25
20
• New growth to replace lost capacity
2020 YTD 15
• Work off a debt overhang
10
5
‐
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1200
1000
800
Estimated unlisted
equity held in open
600 ended funds
400
200
Other Unlisted equity
0
Closed ended funds Open ended funds
Unilsted/private equity Other
Approximated from estimates and using following sources: Investment Company Institute, Association of
Sources: ONS, EIOPA and Bank calculations Investment Companies, ONS and Bank calculations
Some open ended funds look attractive…
Some open end funds
Return from highly illiquid
growth capital
Return from less liquid
assets
Daily redemption
Closed end and long‐term funds
Reform of redemption terms could open up new possibilities for growth capital.
Return from less liquid
Return from highly illiquid assets
growth capital Redemption terms aligned
with asset liquidity
Protecting economic
muscle: Finance and the
Covid Crisis
Alex Brazier, Executive Director for Financial Stability Strategy
and Risk
Bank of England