REPRESENTING COTTON GROWERS THROUGHOUT ALABAMA, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA, AND VIRGINIA

COTTON MARKETING NEWS

Volume 18, No. 14 August 12, 2020

average. Large abandonment takes out a lot of dryland and low-

Sponsored by yielding acres resulting in a higher average yield.
1
2020 and 2019 Cotton Acres, Yield, and Production
2019 2020
Surprising August Report—Cotton Falls Ac Planted Ac Hvstd Yield Production Ac Planted Ac Hvstd Yield Production
AL 540 532 928 1,028 470 465 981 950
AZ 167.5 165.5 1,138 392.5 132 130 1,462 396
Today’s USDA numbers were an unfavorable surprise to the AR 620 610 1,185 1,506 500 490 1,195 1,220
CA 258 254 1,551 821 205 203 1,501 635
market. Prices fell as a result. Today’s production numbers were FL 112 110 895 205 95 93 852 165
based on conditions as of August 1. The numbers do not reflect GA 1,400 1,380 953 2,740 1,230 1,220 1,003 2,550
KS 175 151 890 280 195 190 947 375
events, good or bad, after that date until now. September and LA 280 270 1,035 582 200 195 1,132 460
subsequent reports will offer revisions. MS 710 700 1,112 1,621 520 515 1,240 1,330
MO 380 368 1,193 915 310 303 1,331 840
NM 68.2 50 826 86 68 47.9 1,107 110.5
Earlier this week, it was reported that crop conditions as of August NC 510 500 998 1,040 370 350 823 600
9th were down from a week earlier. The market (Dec futures) OK 640 460 688 659 640 560 814 950
SC 300 295 809 497 190 185 830 320
reacted up over 100 points from last Friday’s disastrous day. TN 410 405 1,138 960 350 345 1,078 775
Today, however, Dec dropped 129 points— wiping out those gains TX 7,062 5,260 578 6,337 6,615 3,861 774 6,223
VA 103 102 1,144 243 95 94 919 180
and actually closing below last Friday. US 13,735.7 11,612.5 823 19,912.5 12,185 9,246.9 938 18,079.5
SOURCES: USDA, Acreage , June 30, 2020 and USDA, Crop Production , August 12, 2020.
1/Thousand acres; lbs per acre; thousand 480-lb bales

Exports for the 2019 crop year were raised to 15.4 million bales—
from 15 million in June to 15.2 in July and now to 15.4. As of July
30 (with just 1 day remaining in the 2019 crop marketing year),
export shipments were 14.614 million “running bales”. Assuming
these bales weigh a “typical” 495 lbs, this would be equivalent to
15.07 USDA “statistical” 480-lb bales. For shipments to total 15.4
million 480-lb “statistical” bales, a “running bale” must be
averaging 505 lbs. In other words, shipments were not on pace to
meet USDA projections, and certainly not the increase to 15.4,
unless weights were running more than “typical”. So, the increase
to 15.4 may not reflect more shipments, just more lbs shipped.

Elsewhere in today’s reports:

As of August 9th, the crop was rated 23% poor to very poor
compared to 16% a week earlier. Texas was rated 35% poor to
very poor compared to 24% a week earlier.
The US crop is now projected at 18.08 million bales—roughly ½
million bales higher than the 17.5 July estimate. Harvest acres
were decreased 1 million acres compared to July but the US
average yield was bumped up over 100 lbs to 938 lbs per acre. As
we have mentioned previously, given the weather issues that have
plagued a large portion of this crop, an August number above 17.5
million bales would likely weaken prices.
Acres planted are subject to further revision but based on the June
estimates and if that number holds, Texas abandonment looks to
be a whopping 42%; US at 24% determined largely by what
happens in Texas. The projected US yield of 938 would be a new
record- surpassing 2017. Nine states are projected to average 2
bales or more per acre. The projected state average yield of 774
for Texas would be the fourth highest ever and well above
 World Use/demand for the 2020 crop year was lowered 1.24
million bales from the July estimate.
 World production for 2020 was raised 1.28 million bales
 Chinese mill projected imports were unchanged but Use was
lowered ½ million bales.
 US exports for the 2020 crop year remain projected at 15 million
bales. Projected imports were increased for Turkey and
Bangladesh; lowered for India, Pakistan, and Indonesia.
 Production will be 4 ½ million bales more than Use. Stocks will
decrease in China but increase by 5 ½ million bales elsewhere.
Prices will continue to be sensitive to weather and trade. An 18
million bale crop takes a bit of the edge off but the 18 number and
the 774 yield for Texas will need to be confirmed in future reports.
Cotton Economist- Retired
Professor Emeritus of Cotton Economics