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Bajaj Auto
Spectacular set of numbers
January 19, 2011
Results in line: Bajaj Auto (BJA) reported a 26.7% YoY improvement in its top‐
line at Rs41.7bn mainly on account of 17.0% YoY volume growth and 8.3% YoY
Q3FY11 Result Update
Surjit Arora realization growth. On a sequential basis, the volumes declined by 5.4%,
surjitarora@plindia.com whereas the average realization/vehicle grew by 1.6% mainly on account of
+91‐22‐66322235 price hikes taken and better product mix. EBITDA margins declined by 40bps
QoQ at 20.3% (we saw 20.3%) on account of 70bps QoQ increase in the raw
material cost. However, EBITDA/Vehicle was maintained at Rs8,970 on a
sequential basis. On account of higher other income and lower taxation, the PAT
for the quarter was maintained sequentially despite the raw material cost push.
Rating Accumulate
Price Rs1,324 Pantnagar to account for ~38% of two‐wheeler EBITDA in FY12E: BJA has
Target Price Rs1,534 commenced production at Plant II at Pantnagar taking the total annual
Implied Upside 15.9% motorcycle capacity at 1.5mn units. We expect the excise‐free Pantnagar facility
Sensex 18,978 to produce 1.3mn motorcycles in FY12E, thereby, accounting for 31% of the
(Prices as on January 19, 2011) motorcycle volumes. As a result, we expect the Pantnagar facility to contribute
~38% of the overall two‐wheeler EBITDA in FY12E.
Trading data
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 382.6 Our volume estimates: We expect the two‐wheeler volumes, including exports,
Shares o/s (m) 289.0 to grow by 16.1% to 4.0m units in FY12E on the back of full year contribution of
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 1066.9 135cc ‘Pulsar’ and the new ‘Discover’ to be launched in April 2011. Three‐
wheeler volumes are estimated to grow by 10% at 0.48m in FY12E.
Outlook & Valuation: With a projected 13.7% CAGR in earnings for the period
Major shareholders
FY11–FY13E and return ratios in excess of 60%, the current valuation at 13.0x
Promoters 49.66%
Foreign 18.42% FY12E EPS and 11.2x FY13E EPS looks attractive. Maintain ‘Accumulate’ rating
Domestic Inst. 5.12% on the stock.
Public & Other 26.80%
Key financials (Y/e March) 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Revenues (Rs m) 119,209 167,500 194,066 220,910
Stock Performance
Growth (%) 34.8 40.5 15.9 13.8
(%) 1M 6M 12M
EBITDA (Rs m) 25,926 34,837 38,143 44,224
Absolute (9.0) 10.3 49.1
PAT (Rs m) 17,028 26,554 29,528 34,307
Relative (4.5) 4.4 40.5
EPS (Rs) 58.8 91.8 102.0 118.6
Growth (%) 159.4 55.9 11.2 16.2
Net DPS (Rs) 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Price Performance (RIC: BAJA.BO, BB: BJAUT IN)
Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs)
1,800
1,600 Profitability & Valuation 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
1,400 EBITDA margin (%) 21.7 20.8 19.7 20.0
1,200
1,000 RoE (%) 71.0 77.9 67.9 63.8
800 RoCE (%) 44.3 56.6 53.3 53.2
600
400 EV / sales (x) 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.5
200 EV / EBITDA (x) 13.7 9.9 8.9 7.3
0
PE (x) 22.5 14.4 13.0 11.2
Nov‐10
Jul‐10
Sep‐10
Mar‐10
Jan‐10
Jan‐11
May‐10
Q3FY11 Result Overview (Rs m)
Y/e March Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY gr. (%) Q2FY11 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY gr. (%)
Total Income 41,771 32,956 26.7 43,418 124,090 85,215 45.6
Total Expenditure 33,278 25,720 29.4 34,447 98,855 67,061 47.4
Total Material Cost 29,826 22,567 32.2 30,712 88,220 57,161 54.3
as % of Net Sales 71.4 68.5 70.7 71.1 67.1
Staff costs 1,066 930 14.6 1,142 3,471 3,133 10.8
as % of Net Sales 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.8 3.7
Other expenses 2427 2275 6.7 2,618 7,239 6,865 5.5
as % of Net Sales 5.8 6.9 (15.8) 6.0 5.8 8.1
Expenses capitalized (41) (51) (25) (34) ‐47
Operating Profit 8,493 7,235 17.4 8,972 25,234 18,155 (1.8)
as % of Net Sales 20.3 22.0 20.7 20.3 21.3
Other Income & Wind Power 994.6 351.3 183.1 837 2,648 800 231.1
EBIDTA 9,488 7,587 25.1 9,809 27,883 18,955 47.1
Interest 3.6 0.02 7 16 60
Depreciation 310.2 356.8 (13.1) 300 928 1,023 (9.3)
Extraordinary ‐ 458 ‐ ‐ ‐
Profit Before Tax 9,174 6,772 35.5 9,503 26,938 17,871 50.7
Taxation 2502.9 2020.0 23.9 2,682 7,545 5,000 50.9
as % of PBT 27.3 29.8 (8.5) 28.2 28.0 28.0
PAT 6,671 4,752 40.4 6,821 19,393 12,871 50.7
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Operating Metrics (Rs)
Y/e March Q3FY11 Q3FY10 YoY gr. (%) Q2FY11 9MFY11 9MFY10 YoY gr. (%)
Vehicles Sold (Nos.) 946,850 809,218 17.0 1,000,570 2,875,756 2,043,703 40.7
Total Income / Vehicle 44,116 40,725 8.3 43,393 43,150 41,697 3.5
Material Cost /Vehicle 31,500 27,887 13.0 30,694 30,677 27,969 9.7
Other Expenses / Vehicle 2,563 2,811 (8.8) 2,616 2,517 3,359 (25.1)
EBITDA / Vehicle 8,970 8,941 0.3 8,967 8,775 8,883 (1.2)
Net Profit / Vehicle 7,046 5,872 20.0 6,817 6,744 6,298 7.1
Source: Company Data, PL Research
January 19, 2011 2
Bajaj Auto
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Net Revenue 119,209 167,500
194,066 220,910 Shareholder's Funds 29,283 38,910 48,125 59,341
Raw Material Expenses 80,704 118,322
140,690 159,972 Total Debt 13,386 12,386 11,386 10,386
Gross Profit 38,505 49,178 53,377 60,938 Other Liabilities 17 17 17 17
Employee Cost 3,995 4,594 4,915 5,527 Total Liabilities 42,686 51,313 59,528 69,744
Other Expenses 8,585 9,747 10,318 11,187 Net Fixed Assets 15,211 16,607 17,945 19,231
EBITDA 25,926 34,837 38,143 44,224 Goodwill — — — —
Depr. & Amortization 1,365 1,269 1,327 1,380 Investments 40,215 45,215 45,215 50,215
Net Interest 60 35 40 60 Net Current Assets (12,740) (10,509) (3,633) 297
Other Income (399) 3,400 3,672 3,892 Cash & Equivalents 1,014 5,646 9,019 18,781
Profit before Tax 24,102 36,932 40,449 46,676 Other Current Assets 28,995 35,673 40,095 45,231
Total Tax 7,074 10,378 10,921 12,369 Current Liabilities 42,750 51,828 52,748 63,715
Profit after Tax 17,028 26,554 29,528 34,307 Other Assets — — — —
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. — — — — Total Assets 42,686 51,313 59,528 69,744
Adj. PAT 17,028 26,554 29,528 34,307
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 289.4 289.4 289.4 289.4
EPS (Rs.) 58.8 91.8 102.0 118.6
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11 Q3FY11
C/F from Operations 27,371 30,225 27,351 41,518 Net Revenue 33,995 38,901 43,418 41,771
C/F from Investing (21,636) (7,665) (2,665) (7,665) EBITDA 7,771 7,769 8,972 8,493
C/F from Financing (6,089) (17,928) (21,313) (24,091) % of revenue 22.9 20.0 20.7 20.3
Inc. / Dec. in Cash (354) 4,632 3,373 9,762 Depr. & Amortization 341 318 300 310
Opening Cash 1,368 1,015 5,647 9,020 Net Interest — 6 7 4
Closing Cash 1,015 5,647 9,020 18,781 Other Income 425 817 837 995
FCFF 29,202 27,559 24,686 38,853 Profit before Tax 7,388 8,262 9,503 9,174
FCFE 26,888 26,559 23,686 37,853 Total Tax 2,075 2,360 2,682 2,503
Profit after Tax 5,313 5,902 6,821 6,671
Adj. PAT 5,313 5,902 6,821 6,671
Key Financial Metrics Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E Y/e March 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E
Growth 2W Domestic Volumes 1,785,485.0 2,441,591.0 2,832,245.6 112,666.7
Revenue (%) 34.8 40.5 15.9 13.8 2W Export Volumes 726,115.0 999,671.0 1,164,616.7 37,786.0
EBITDA (%) 112.3 34.4 9.5 15.9 3W Domestic Volumes 176,049.0 205,000.0 232,850.0 18,162.3
PAT (%) 159.4 55.9 11.2 16.2 3W Export Volumes 164,887.0 230,000.0 250,000.0 19,000.0
EPS (%) 159.4 55.9 11.2 16.2 Total Volumes 2,852,536.0 3,876,262.0 4,479,712.3 187,615.0
Profitability Net Realization / Vehicle 41,790.7 43,211.7 43,321.1 42,885.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.7 20.8 19.7 20.0 Raw Material Cost / Vehicle 28,292.2 30,524.8 31,405.9 31,967.4
PAT Margin (%) 14.3 15.9 15.2 15.5 EBITDA / Vehicle 9,088.7 8,987.2 8,514.7 8,837.3
RoCE (%) 44.3 56.6 53.3 53.2 Net Profit / vehicle 5,969.0 6,850.5 6,591.4 6,855.6
RoE (%) 71.0 77.9 67.9 63.8
Balance Sheet
Net Debt : Equity 0.4 0.2 — (0.1)
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (63) (44) (32) (43)
Valuation
PER (x) 22.5 14.4 13.0 11.2
P / B (x) 13.1 9.8 8.0 6.5
EV / EBITDA (x) 13.7 9.9 8.9 7.3
EV / Sales (x) 3.0 2.1 1.8 1.5
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 29.4 28.1 27.0 26.5
Other Inc / PBT 4.8 9.2 9.1 8.3 Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.3
FCFE / PAT 157.9 100.0 80.2 110.3
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
January 19, 2011 3
Bajaj Auto
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.
3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
Rating Distribution of Research Coverage
60% 55.3%
50%
% of Total Coverage
40%
28.8%
30%
20% 13.6%
10%
2.3%
0%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
PL’s Recommendation Nomenclature
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January 19, 2011 4