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Alpha1 0 Beta1 0.95 Gama1 0.

95
Actual
Sales
Fiscal Year x(t) S(t) T(t) C(t)
1 October 1.3 37.52 0 0.03
2 November 0.1 37.52 0 0
3 December 0.5 37.52 0 0.01
4 January 9.5 37.52 0 0.25
5 February 37.2 37.52 0 0.99
6 March 81.1 37.52 0 2.16
7 April 87.3 37.52 0 2.33
8 May 59.5 37.52 0 1.59
9 June 72.9 37.52 0 1.94
10 July 58.6 37.52 0 1.56
11 August 28.1 37.52 0 0.75
1971 12 September 14.1 37.52 0 0.38
1 October 6.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.3
2 November 12.7 40.02 2.32 0.3 #NAME?
3 December 13.3 42.82 2.77 0.3 0.56
4 January 20.9 45.60 2.79 0.45 11.54
5 February 65.5 48.40 2.8 1.34 47.98
6 March 124.5 51.20 2.8 2.42 110.67
7 April 144 54.00 2.8 2.65 125.65
8 May 137.8 56.82 2.82 2.38 90.09
9 June 156 59.64 2.83 2.58 115.88
10 July 89.2 62.47 2.82 1.43 97.58
11 August 36.9 65.28 2.82 0.57 48.9
1972 12 September 25.2 68.10 2.82 0.37 25.59
1 October 18.8 70.93 2.84 0.26 11.59
2 November 13.2 73.76 2.82 0.19 22.25
3 December 11.6 76.56 2.8 0.16 22.65
4 January 53.4 79.38 2.82 0.66 35.56
5 February 126.2 82.21 2.83 1.53 109.76
6 March 153.9 85.03 2.82 1.84 205.65
7 April 188.2 87.84 2.81 2.17 232.77
8 May 206.1 90.65 2.81 2.28 216.06
9 June 168.9 93.45 2.8 1.85 241.3
10 July 97.6 96.23 2.78 1.04 138.07
11 August 35.2 98.99 2.76 0.37 56.87
1973 12 September 33.7 101.75 2.76 0.33 37.68
1 October 20.4 104.49 2.75 0.2 27.17
2 November 13.5 107.22 2.73 0.13 19.85
3 December 22.8 109.97 2.75 0.2 17.45
4 January 92.7 112.73 2.76 0.81 74.56
5 February 161.7 115.49 2.75 1.41 176.13
6 March 316.8 118.27 2.78 2.64 217.6
7 April 372.8 121.07 2.8 3.03 262.42
8 May 272.4 123.88 2.8 2.2 282.33
9 June 181 126.67 2.79 1.45 233.88
10 July 92.1 129.43 2.77 0.73 134.02
11 August 39.9 132.19 2.76 0.31 48.46
1974 12 September 34.2 134.94 2.74 0.26 44.96
1 October 27.32
2 November 17.74
3 December 28.21
4 January 112.11
5 February 193.63
6 March 363.02
7 April 417.65
8 May 303.3
9 June 199.61
10 July 100.19
11 August 42
1975 12 September 35.44
Error
400
350
300
250
200 Actual Sales
150 Series2
Series3
100 Forecasted
50

ON D J F MA M J J A S ON D J F MA M J J A S ON D J F MAMJ J A S
5.1 c oe a ea pa uu u e c o e a ea pa uu u e c o e a ea pa uu u e
#NAME? t v c n b r ri y n ly g p t v c n b r ri y n ly g p t v c n b r ri y n ly g p
12.74 oee u r c l e ut oee u r c l e ut oee u r c l e ut
b mm a uh st e b mm a uh st e b mm a uh st e
9.36 ebb r a me b b r a me b b r a m
17.52 r ee y r b r ee y r b r ee y r b
13.83 r r y e r r y e r r y e
r r r
18.35
47.71
40.12
-8.38
-12
-0.39
7.21
-9.05
-11.05
17.84
16.44
-51.75
-44.57
-9.96
-72.4
-40.47
-21.67
-3.98 MSE 968.22
-6.77
-6.35
5.35
18.14
-14.43
99.2
110.38
-9.93
-52.88
-41.92
-8.56
-10.76

Forecast via BootStrapping


Actual Sales
Series2
Series3
Forecasted

AS
ue
gp
ut
st e
m
b
e
r
Alpha3 0.3 Beta3 0.1 Gama3 0.6
Actual
Sales
Fiscal Year x(t) S(t) C(t) Forecast Error
1 October 1.3 37.52 0 0.03
2 November 0.1 37.52 0 0
3 December 0.5 37.52 0 0.01
4 January 9.5 37.52 0 0.25
5 February 37.2 37.52 0 0.99
6 March 81.1 37.52 0 2.16
7 April 87.3 37.52 0 2.33
8 May 59.5 37.52 0 1.59
9 June 72.9 37.52 0 1.94
10 July 58.6 37.52 0 1.56
11 August 28.1 37.52 0 0.75
1971 12 September 14.1 37.52 0 0.38
1 October 6.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?
2 November 12.7 1455.65 #NAME? 0.01 #NAME? 8.82
3 December 13.3 325.64 #NAME? 0.03 4.36 8.94
4 January 20.9 51.02 #NAME? 0.35 13.21 7.69
5 February 65.5 46.08 #NAME? 1.25 48.5 17
6 March 124.5 43.54 #NAME? 2.58 103.5 21
7 April 144 44.83 #NAME? 2.86 117.5 26.5
8 May 137.8 52.33 #NAME? 2.21 95.41 42.39
9 June 156 50.35 #NAME? 2.64 113.98 42.02
10 July 89.2 43.39 #NAME? 1.86 72.56 16.64
11 August 36.9 41.04 #NAME? 0.84 31.4 5.5
1972 12 September 25.2 46.38 #NAME? 0.48 17.85 7.35
1 October 18.8 150.17 #NAME? 0.1 9.25 9.55
2 November 13.2 1648.31 #NAME? 0.01 10.39 2.81
3 December 11.6 345.48 #NAME? 0.03 10.34 1.26
4 January 53.4 82.67 #NAME? 0.53 30.18 23.22
5 February 126.2 64.54 #NAME? 1.67 91.41 34.79
6 March 153.9 51.41 #NAME? 2.83 150.32 3.58
7 April 188.2 55.10 #NAME? 3.19 184.71 3.49
8 May 206.1 70.03 #NAME? 2.65 185.81 20.29
9 June 168.9 60.28 #NAME? 2.74 182.04 -13.14
10 July 97.6 48.28 #NAME? 1.96 96.38 1.22
11 August 35.2 41.93 #NAME? 0.84 35.7 -0.5
1973 12 September 33.7 54.46 #NAME? 0.56 26.83 6.87
1 October 20.4 167.84 #NAME? 0.11 16.86 3.54
2 November 13.5 1707.52 #NAME? 0.01 12.52 0.98
3 December 22.8 455.74 #NAME? 0.04 14.68 8.12
4 January 92.7 113.70 #NAME? 0.7 63.94 28.76
5 February 161.7 80.20 #NAME? 1.88 153.1 8.6
6 March 316.8 74.38 #NAME? 3.69 273.87 42.93
7 April 372.8 80.27 #NAME? 4.06 342.56 30.24
8 May 272.4 89.56 #NAME? 2.89 288.16 -15.76
9 June 181 68.18 #NAME? 2.69 211.43 -30.43
10 July 92.1 50.43 #NAME? 1.88 103.91 -11.81
11 August 39.9 44.05 #NAME? 0.88 37.83 2.07
1974 12 September 34.2 57.68 #NAME? 0.58 33.37 0.83
1 October #NAME?
2 November #NAME?
3 December 2.55
4 January 41.56
5 February 111.6
6 March 218.98
7 April 241.37
8 May 171.4
9 June 159.6
10 July 111.56
11 August 52.22
1974 12 September 34.48
400
350
300
250
200 Actual Sales
150 Series2
Series3
100 Series4
50

O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S
c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue
t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p
oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut
b mma u h s e b mma u h s e b mma u h se
ebbr a t me b b r a t me b b r a t m
r eeyr br eeyr br ee yr b
r r y e r r y e r r y e
r r r
MSE 263.73

Forecast via BootStrapping


ctual Sales
eries2
eries3
eries4
Alpha4 0.65 Beta4 0.8 Gama4 0.8

Actual
Sales
Fiscal Year x(t) S(t) T(t) C(t) Forecast Error
1 October 1.3 37.52 0 -36.22
2 November 0.1 37.52 0 -37.42
3 December 0.5 37.52 0 -37.02
4 January 9.5 37.52 0 -28.02
5 February 37.2 37.52 0 -0.32
6 March 81.1 37.52 0 43.58
7 April 87.3 37.52 0 49.78
8 May 59.5 37.52 0 21.98
9 June 72.9 37.52 0 35.38
10 July 58.6 37.52 0 21.08
11 August 28.1 37.52 0 -9.42
12 September 14.1 37.52 0 -23.42
1971 1 October 6.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.3 5.1
2 November 12.7 47.8 6.1 -35.56 #NAME? #NAME?
3 December 13.3 51.57 4.24 -38.02 16.88 -3.58
4 January 20.9 51.33 0.66 -29.95 27.79 -6.89
5 February 65.5 60.98 7.85 3.56 51.67 13.83
6 March 124.5 76.68 14.14 46.97 112.41 12.09
7 April 144 93.03 15.9 50.73 140.6 3.4
8 May 137.8 113.41 19.48 23.91 130.91 6.89
9 June 156 124.91 13.1 31.95 168.27 -12.27
10 July 89.2 92.58 -23.25 1.51 159.1 -69.9
11 August 36.9 54.37 -35.21 -15.86 59.92 -23.02
12 September 25.2 38.31 -19.9 -15.17 -4.26 29.46
1972 1 October 18.8 41.28 -1.6 -24.94 -16.38 35.18
2 November 13.2 45.58 3.12 -33.02 4.11 9.09
3 December 11.6 49.3 3.6 -37.76 10.68 0.92
4 January 53.4 72.69 19.43 -21.42 22.95 30.45
5 February 126.2 111.96 35.3 12.1 95.68 30.52
6 March 153.9 121.05 14.33 35.68 194.23 -40.33
7 April 188.2 136.74 15.42 51.32 186.11 2.09
8 May 206.1 171.68 31.04 32.32 176.06 30.04
9 June 168.9 159.97 -3.16 13.53 234.66 -65.76
10 July 97.6 117.34 -34.73 -15.49 158.32 -60.72
11 August 35.2 62.1 -51.14 -24.69 66.74 -31.54
12 September 33.7 35.6 -31.43 -4.56 -4.2 37.9
1973 1 October 20.4 30.93 -10.02 -13.41 -20.76 41.16
2 November 13.5 37.55 3.29 -25.85 -12.11 25.61
3 December 22.8 53.66 13.55 -32.24 3.08 19.72
4 January 92.7 97.7 37.94 -8.28 45.79 46.91
5 February 161.7 144.71 45.2 16.01 147.74 13.96
6 March 316.8 249.2 92.63 61.22 225.59 91.21
7 April 372.8 328.6 82.05 45.62 393.15 -20.35
8 May 272.4 299.78 -6.65 -15.44 442.97 -170.57
9 June 181 211.45 -71.99 -21.65 306.66 -125.66
10 July 92.1 118.74 -88.56 -24.41 123.96 -31.86
11 August 39.9 52.55 -70.67 -15.06 5.48 34.42
12 September 34.2 18.85 -41.09 11.37 -22.67 56.87
1974
1 October
2 November
3 December
4 January
5 February
6 March
7 April
8 May
9 June
10 July
11 August
1975 12 September
500
400
300
200
100 Series1
-100 Series2
O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S O N D J F MA MJ J A S
c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue
t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p
oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut
b mma u h s e b mma u h s e b mma u h se
ebbr a t me b b r a t me b b r a t m
r eeyr br eeyr br ee yr b
r r y e r r y e r r y e
r r r
MSE 10064.17
Alpha5 0.9 Beta5 0 Gama5 1

Actual
Sales
Fiscal Yearx(t) S(t) T(t) C(t) Forecast Error
1 October 1.3 37.52 0 -36.22
2 November 0.1 37.52 0 -37.42
3 December 0.5 37.52 0 -37.02
4 January 9.5 37.52 0 -28.02
5 February 37.2 37.52 0 -0.32
6 March 81.1 37.52 0 43.58
7 April 87.3 37.52 0 49.78
8 May 59.5 37.52 0 21.98
9 June 72.9 37.52 0 35.38
10 July 58.6 37.52 0 21.08
11 August 28.1 37.52 0 -9.42
12 September 14.1 37.52 0 -23.42
1 October 6.4 #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? 1.3 5.1
2 November 12.7 48.86 0 -36.16 #NAME? #NAME?
3 December 13.3 49.04 0 -35.74 11.84 1.46
4 January 20.9 47.78 0 -26.88 21.02 -0.12
5 February 65.5 62.99 0 2.51 47.46 18.04
6 March 124.5 76.58 0 47.92 106.57 17.93
7 April 144 88.55 0 55.45 126.36 17.64
8 May 137.8 107.99 0 29.81 110.53 27.27
9 June 156 112.31 0 43.69 143.37 12.63
10 July 89.2 65.06 0 24.14 133.39 -44.19
11 August 36.9 45.44 0 -8.54 55.64 -18.74
12 September 25.2 47.51 0 -22.31 22.02 3.18
1 October 18.8 53.27 0 -34.47 11.8 7
2 November 13.2 49.31 0 -36.11 17.11 -3.91
3 December 11.6 47.51 0 -35.91 13.57 -1.97
4 January 53.4 77.03 0 -23.63 20.63 32.77
5 February 126.2 117.62 0 8.58 79.54 46.66
6 March 153.9 103.04 0 50.86 165.54 -11.64
7 April 188.2 128.33 0 59.87 158.49 29.71
8 May 206.1 169.46 0 36.64 158.14 47.96
9 June 168.9 123.92 0 44.98 213.15 -44.25
10 July 97.6 72.62 0 24.98 148.06 -50.46
11 August 35.2 43.91 0 -8.71 64.08 -28.88
12 September 33.7 55.16 0 -21.46 21.6 12.1
1 October 20.4 54.71 0 -34.31 20.69 -0.29
2 November 13.5 49.58 0 -36.08 18.6 -5.1
3 December 22.8 57.59 0 -34.79 13.67 9.13
4 January 92.7 112.4 0 -19.7 33.96 58.74
5 February 161.7 149.57 0 12.13 120.98 40.72
6 March 316.8 249.65 0 67.15 200.43 116.37
7 April 372.8 294.47 0 78.33 309.52 63.28
8 May 272.4 229.13 0 43.27 331.11 -58.71
9 June 181 134.81 0 46.19 274.11 -93.11
10 July 92.1 67.67 0 24.43 159.79 -67.69
11 August 39.9 48.14 0 -8.24 58.96 -19.06
12 September 34.2 55.61 0 -21.41 26.68 7.52
400
350
300
250
200
150 Series1
100
50 Series2
O N D J F MA M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F MA M J J A S
c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue c o e a ea pa uuue
t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p t v c n b r ri y n l g p
oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut oee ur c l eyut
b mma u h s e b mma u h s e b mma u h se
ebbr a t me b b r a t me b b r a t m
r eeyr br ee yr br ee yr b
r r y e r r y e r r y e
r r r
MSE 3423.62
Sum of Actual/Forecasted Sale
Fiscal Year
Growth Rate
Month 1974 1975 Grand Total
January 92.70 112.11 204.81 121%
February 161.70 193.63 355.33 120%
March 316.80 363.02 679.82 115%
April 372.80 417.65 790.45 112%
May 272.40 303.30 575.70 111%
June 181.00 199.61 380.61 110%
July 92.10 100.19 192.29 109%
August 39.90 42.00 81.90 105%
September 34.20 35.44 69.64 104%
October 20.40 27.32 47.72 134%
November 13.50 17.74 31.24 131%
December 22.80 28.21 51.01 124%
Grand Total 1620.30 1840.24 3460.54 114%

450.00
400.00
350.00
300.00 197
250.00 197
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00
0.00
Janu Feb Mar Apri May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ary ruar ch l ust tem obe em em
y ber r ber ber
January 121%
Feburary 120%
March 115%
April 112%
May 111%
June 110%
July 109%
August 105%
September 104%
October 134%
November 131%
December 124%

1974
1975

ct Nov Dec
be em em
ber ber
Fiscal Year
Month Actual/Forecasted Sale
1971 October 1.3
1971 November 0.1
1971 December 0.5
1971 January 9.5
1971 February 37.2
1971 March 81.1
1971 April 87.3
1971 May 59.5
1971 June 72.9
1971 July 58.6
1971 August 28.1
1971 September 14.1
1972 October 6.4
1972 November 12.7
1972 December 13.3
1972 January 20.9
1972 February 65.5
1972 March 124.5
1972 April 144.0
1972 May 137.8
1972 June 156.0
1972 July 89.2
1972 August 36.9
1972 September 25.2
1973 October 18.8
1973 November 13.2
1973 December 11.6
1973 January 53.4
1973 February 126.2
1973 March 153.9
1973 April 188.2
1973 May 206.1
1973 June 168.9
1973 July 97.6
1973 August 35.2
1973 September 33.7
1974 October 20.4
1974 November 13.5
1974 December 22.8
1974 January 92.7
1974 February 161.7
1974 March 316.8
1974 April 372.8
1974 May 272.4
1974 June 181.0
1974 July 92.1
1974 August 39.9
1974 September 34.2
1975 October 27.3
1975 November 17.7
1975 December 28.2
1975 January 112.1
1975 February 193.6
1975 March 363.0
1975 April 417.7
1975 May 303.3
1975 June 199.6
1975 July 100.2
1975 August 42.0
1975 September 35.4