Climate Change and Sustainable Development: A

Case of South Asia and India

Dr. U N Roy
Professor and Head, Rural Development
NITTTR Chandigarh
Email: unroy2000@yahoo.com
Mobile No: 09417581530
 Contents
 Climate Change

 Concept of Global Warming Vs. Global Cooling

 Threatening Environmental Issues in Context of India

and Nigeria

 Will the River Ganga will get dried?

 Scenario in South Asian Countries

 National Action Plan on Climate Change

 COP 21 and Challenges

 Conclusion Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Climate Change
• The climate change has become a buzz
word for the development planners in India
and in all parts of the world.

• Climate change and its impact on Indian

continent has been noticed vividly in
recent past in terms of depletion of
glaciers, unpredictable rainfall, cloud
bursting, avalanches and rise in
temperature, recurrent floods and droughts
in various parts of the country.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Major Issue
• “Climate change is projected to
increase the frequency, intensity,
and duration of droughts, with
impacts on many sectors, in
particular food, water, and energy”

Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General World

Meteorological Organization (WMO)

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Two Schools of Thoughts

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Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
Austrialian Forest Fire Nov – Dec 2019

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Amazon Rainforest Fire Aug Sept 2019

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 Geological Time Scale
Segments of rock (strata) in Time spans in Notes to
chronostratigraphy geochronology geochronological units
4 total, half a billion years or
Eonothem Eon
more
10 defined, several hundred
Erathem Era
million years
22 defined, tens to ~one
System Period
hundred million years
34 defined, tens of millions of
Series Epoch
years
Stage Age 99 defined, millions of years

subdivision of an age, not

Chronozone Chron
used by the ICS timescale
Segments of rock (strata) in Time spans in Notes to
chronostratigraphy geochronology geochronological units
Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
Geological
Time Scale

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Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
 Causes of Global Warming
The climate change has been by and large
natural phenomena till industrial revolution
three centuries ago.

But the series of anthropogenic activities

throughout the globe in terms of mining, quarrying,
deforestation, industrialization, landscape
development, increase in transport facilities,
infrastructure development, creation of dams and
many such developmental activities at the cost
natural degradation led to rapid change in climatic
conditions in last one century.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

Threatening Environmental Issues in Context of India

• Vulnerable Himalayan Ecology: South Asian

Countries with issues like Melting of glaciers,
Earthquake, Landslides , Floods and Cyclones
• Loss of Bio-diversity

• Climate Change and Food Security

• Groundwater Depletion

• Drinking Water and Sanitation

• Drought/Famine in India

• River Water Pollution

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

Nigeria:

Total land area

of 983,213 km2
occupied by
about 201 Million
people (2019):
• Urbanization
• Deforestation
• Desertification
• Over Population
and
• All Kinds of
Pollution
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Population Growth in Nigeria

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Satellite
Image of
Nigeria

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Southeast Asia: A Highly Vulnerable Region

The people in Southeast Asia largely depend on

agriculture for livelihood. The agriculture sector
accounted for 43% of total employment in 2004 and
contributed about 11% of GDP in 2006.

The high dependence of the people on agriculture

and such primary natural resources makes them
vulnerable to disasters like droughts, floods and
tropical cyclones.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Vulnerability in South-Asian Countries

• The mean temperature in South eastern region has

increased at 0.1 - 0.30 per decade between 1951
and 2000

• Rainfall trended downward during 1960-2000

• Sea levels have risen 1 - 3 mm per year.

• Heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones

have been more intense and frequent, causing
extensive damage to property, assets and human
life.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Contd…
• Annual mean temperature is projected to rise 4.80 C
on an average by 2100 from 1990.

• Mean sea level is projected to rise by 70 cm during

the same period following the global trend.

• Such change in the climate will have severe impact

on the countries like Philippines, Thailand,
Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Maldives, Sri
Lanka and India.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

• Global warming is likely to cause rice yield
potential to decline by up to 50% on an average by
2100 compared to 1990 in these seven countries;
and

• A large part of the dominant forest /woodland could

be replaced by tropical savanna and shrub with low
or no carbon sequestration potential (Shukla, P R et
al, 2007)

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

Impact of Natural Hazards/Disaster on India

• Earthquake – 60% landmass

• Flood - 40 Million Hectare

• Drought – 68% Area

• Cyclone – 8%

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 Geographical Features

• The Indian peninsula is

separated from mainland Asia by
the Himalayas. The Country is
surrounded by the Bay of Bengal
in the east, the Arabian Sea in
the west, and the Indian Ocean
to the south. Lying entirely in the
northern hemisphere, the
mainland extends between
latitudes 8° 4' and 37° 6' north,
longitudes 68° 7' and 97° 25'
east and measures about 3,214
km from north to south between
the extreme latitudes and about
2,933 km from east to west
between the extreme longitudes.
It has a land frontier of about
15,200 km. The total length of
the coastline of the mainland,
Lakshadweep Islands and
Andaman & Nicobar Islands is
7,516.6 km

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Population Growth India Vs China

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Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
 The Himalaya is the source
of eight great rivers and
holding 40% of fresh water.

Are Himalayan Glaciers

Melting?

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

Glaciers are Source of
Perennial Rivers
 Studies on Glaciers

• Dr Thompson studied the glaciers of

Peruvian Andes Mountain and which were
also found retreating.

• The glaciologists at the institute of Tibetan

Plateau Research in Beijing have found
that from 1980 to 1990, 90 percent of the
612 glaciers across the High Asian region
were found retreating, and from 1990 to
2005, this increased to 95 per cent

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Increasing Temperature in Tibetan Plateau

• Thompson admitted that the meteorological

records from the Tibetan Plateau and the
Himalayas are scarce and of relatively of short
duration.

• The data of 1950s and 1960s are available and the

data shows a trend of increase in surface
temperature particularly at higher elevations.
According to him the Tibetan plateau has been
warming at a rate of 0.16 degree centigrade per
decade.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Scientific Reviews contd…

• Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

(GRACE) satellite data shows that from
2003 to 2009 the average ice fields had
accelerated twice as fast as the rate over
four decades before, but the loss was not
consistent over time and space.

(Matsuo and Heiki, Earth and Planetary Science

Letters, “Time variable ice loss in Asian High
Mountains from Satellite gravimetry”)
Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
• Running 2,000 kilometres from east to west and
comprising more than 60,000 square kilometres of
ice, the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan glaciers
are a source of water for the quarter of the global
population that lives in south Asia.

• Depleting Ice cover: Between 2003 and 2009,

Himalayan glaciers lost an estimated 174
gigatonnes of water, and contributed to
catastrophic floods of the Indus, Ganges and
Brahmaputra rivers. Pollution is accelerating the
melt.

• An 'Asian brown cloud', formed from the 2 million

tonnes of soot and dark particles released into the
atmosphere every year, mostly from India and
China, warms the air and surface ice.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Review … contd…
• There are about 10, 000 glaciers in India and about
15, 000 including other parts of Tibet of different
size in the Himalayas.

• Few case studies based on limited samples of

glaciers cannot give us right picture. Looking into
complex behavior of the glaciers the studies based
on samples cannot give us vivid picture. They can
only be treated as ‘Poster Child’.

• Thompson also clarified that based on his research

he strongly believes that the Himalayan ice caps
will not be depleted completely by 2035 for which
the IPCC has been blamed in the year 2010.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Indian Scientists’ view points

• Dr V K Raina, has also of the opinion that the glaciers

in the Himalayas barring the few exceptions, have been
in constant retreat since observations started in mid-
nineteenth century.

• All studies showed all glaciers under observation have

lost mass during the last three decades of last century.
Further he observes that all there are cases of retreat
but Himalayan glaciers have not retreated as fast as in
comparison of Alaska and Greenland.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Will the Ganga get Dried?
Indian Scientists’ view points
• The Gangotri glaciers, which fed the Ganga River, were
practically at a standstill for the last few years.

• The Ganga is fed by 75% Precipitation and 25% by Glaciers

• A group of scientists at Indian Space Agency’s Application

Centre at Ahmedabad used satellite images to study 466
glaciers in Chenab, Parbati and Baspa basins. They have found
that the glaciers have shrunk by 21 percent since 1962. The
glaciers have also become more fragmented (Raj, N Gopal,
2009).
• Gangotri glaciers will not affect the perennial status of
River Ganga – Dr Rameshwar Bali, Lucknow University
Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh
Solution: Dense forest line in Himalaya can check
Landslides And Soil Erosion
 Climate Change and Food Security

• FAO estimates that for every one degree rise in

temperature, 6 million tons of wheat will be lost in
India.

• Emile Frison, Director General of Biodiversity

International, pointed out that in last century; the
world has lost its 75 per cent of all known food
crops. Now world relies on just a few varieties of
rice, potatoes, maize, wheat and other staples.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Climate Change and Food Security

• Unfortunately many of those lost or in decline are

indigenous species that are the most nutritious,
whether green leafy vegetables of Africa or the
millets of India.

• The double burden of hunger and obesity looms

large – one in three people in the world are
malnourished.

• Scientists and farmers need to be ready for the

shift in plants and crops species which may survive
rise in temperature.

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 National Action Plan on Climate
Change (NAPCC) 30 June, 2008
• National Solar Mission
• National Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• National Mission on Sustainable Habitat
• National Water Mission
• National Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem
• National Mission for a Green India
• National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
• National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate
Change

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• Climate change is integrated
into the national development
planning process, and overseen
by the Prime Minister’s Council
on Climate Change

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 COP - 21
• The 2015 United Nations Climate Change
Conference, COP 21 or CMP 11 was held in
Paris, France, from 30 November to 12
December 2015.
• It was the 21st yearly session of the
Conference of the Parties (COP) to the
1992 United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
and the 11th session of the Meeting of the
Parties to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.
 Kyoto Protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto,

Japan, on 11 December 1997 and entered
into force on 16 February 2005. There are
currently 192 Parties (Canada withdrew
effective December 2012) to the Protocol.
 Polluters should Pay
Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change

• Annex B parties with binding targets in the

second period
• Annex B parties with binding targets in the first
period but not the second

• non-Annex B parties without binding targets

• Annex B parties with binding targets in the first
period but which withdrew from the Protocol
•
• The Protocol’s first commitment period started in
2008 and ended in 2012. A second commitment
period was agreed on in 2012, known as the Doha
Amendment
• Under the Kyoto Protocol, 37 industrialized countries and the
European Community (the European Union-15, made up of 15 states
at the time of the Kyoto negotiations) commit themselves to binding
targets for GHG emissions.

• The targets apply to four greenhouse gases

– carbon dioxide (CO2),
– Methane (CH4)
– Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
– Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6),

• and two groups of gases,

– hydro-fluorocarbons (HFCs) and per-fluorocarbons(PFCs).

• The six GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining
reductions in emissions.
• These reduction targets are in addition to the industrial gases,
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987
Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
Largest Ozone Hole was recorded in
September 2006 by NASA
 Strategies COP - 21

• The agreement will become legally

binding if joined by at least 55 countries
which together represent at least 55
percent of global greenhouse emissions.
• Such parties will need to sign the
agreement in New York between 22 April
2016 (Earth Day) and 21 April 2017, and
also adopt it within their own legal
systems (through ratification,
acceptance, approval, or accession).
 CSR
For reporting their efforts companies may
demonstrate their commitment to Corporate
social responsibility (CSR) through the
following:

– Top-level involvement (CEO, Board of Directors)

– Policy Investments
– Programs
– Signatories to voluntary standards
– Principles (UN Global Compact-Ceres Principles)
– Reporting (Global Reporting Initiative)
 Conclusion of COP - 21
• On 12 December 2015, the participating 195
countries agreed, by consensus, to the final
global pact, the Paris Agreement, to reduce
emissions as part of the method for reducing
greenhouse gas. In the 12-page document, the
members agreed to reduce their carbon output
"as soon as possible" and to do their best to
keep global warming "to well below 2 degrees
C0 .

• France's Foreign Minister, Laurent Fabius, said

this "ambitious and balanced" plan was a
"historic turning point" in the goal of reducing
global warming
 Fight for Climate Justice

More than 600,000 people have taken to the streets

in 175 countries around the world to call for a
strong deal in Paris that will see a swift transition
from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Climate Justice Movement
Fossil Fuel to Renewable Energy
100% Renewable Energy
Save Forests
Save Land and Water
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Countries
 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

APEC's 21 Member Economies are the:

• United States; Australia; Brunei
Darussalam; Canada; Chile; China;
• Hong Kong, Indonesia; Japan; Malaysia;
Mexico; New Zealand;
• Papua New Guinea; Peru; The Philippines;
Russia; Singapore; Republic of Korea;
Chinese Taipei; Thailand; and Viet Nam.
Worldwide Protest
World Leaders Joining Hands
 Greta
Thunberg

Dr U N Roy NITTTR Chandigarh

 Conclusion
Take Measures for Sustainability
How to Preserve the Natural Ecosystem?

Thanks