GLBL 271 /GLBL713

FALL 2020
International Politics of the Middle East
Emma Sky
Seminar
Tuesdays 3.30-5.20 pm – zoom land

The course explores the international politics of the Middle East through a framework of analysis
that is partly historical and partly thematic. It demonstrates how the international system, as well
as social structures and political economy, shape state behavior. It examines borders; oil and
rentierism; Islamism; ISIS; sectarianism; conflicts; lran-Saudi rivalry; Turkey; the Arab spring;
refugees; climate change; and great power rivalry.

Course Requirements
• Each student will select a specific Middle Eastern country to follow and brief on each week
(5%)
• Class presentation (10%)
• Submission of 3-5 questions on readings each week (5%)
• Mid-term assignments:
• 1,000-word speech setting out the national interests and foreign policy of a Middle
Eastern country (mid-term) (20%)
• 800 word oped on new administration’s Middle East policy (20%)
• Final paper on agreed topic. 3,000 words. (40%)

Book: Kim Ghattas ‘Black Wave’

Class Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/groups/228489090638156/?ref=bookmarks

No Date Topic
1. Introducing the Middle East
2. The modern Middle East state system
3. Arab-Israeli conflict – 1,2 or 5 state solution
4. Islamic Republic of Iran
5. 2003 Iraq war
6. Sectarianism and identity politics
7. Islamism, al-Qaeda and ISIS
8. Arab uprisings
9. Political economy, oil and rentier state
10. Refugees
11. Climate change, environment, water
12. Great Power Rivalry: US, Russia, and China
13. Black Wave: Kim Ghattas
1. Introducing the Middle East

Introducing basic themes and approaches of the module, and situating study of the Middle East
within a wider international context. Is the Middle East exceptional, or can it be understood in
much the same way as other regions of the world, especially the “Third World” or “South”, using
universal tools of social science analysis?

F. Halliday, ‘9/11 and Middle Eastern Studies Past and Future: Revisiting Ivory Towers on Sand’,
International Affairs, Vol. 80, No. 5 (2004), pp. 953-962.

Lawson, F.H. ‘International Relations Theory and the Middle East’, in L. Fawcett (ed.),
International Relations of the Middle East (Oxford: 2016), pp. 21-37

Samuel Huntington, the Clash of Civilizations, Foreign Affairs, 1993

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/1993-06-01/clash-civilizations?
fa_anthology=1114000

2. The Modern Middle East State System: Are borders the problem?

Origins of the modern Middle East state system, and the impact of integration into the
European-dominated world system on state formation, state-society relations, and political
economy. The Paris peace negotiations of 1919-1920 resulted in two treaties, at Sèvres (1920)
and then at Lausanne (1923), which determined the status of certain territories formerly under
Ottoman control. Do the roots of instability in the Middle stem from the creation of fixed
borders and the imposition of a quasi-Westphalian order on the region in the aftermath of
WW1?

E. Rogan, ‘The Emergence of the Middle East into the Modern State System’, in L. Fawcett (ed.),
International Relations of the Middle East (Oxford: 2016), pp. 39-61

Jacobs, Matthew. “World War I: A War (and Peace) for the Middle East,” Diplomatic History,
volume 38, number 4, 2014, pp. 776 – 785.

Joost Hiltermann http://www.sharqforum.org/2018/05/23/the-middle-east-in-chaos-of-orders-

and-borders/

Toby Dodge THE DANGER OF ANALOGICAL MYTHS: EXPLAINING THE POWER AND
CONSEQUENCES OF THE SYKES-PICOT DELUSION https://www.asil.org/sites/default/files/Dodge
%2C%20The%20danger%20of%20analogical%20myths.pdf
Steven A. Cook ‘One Hundred Years After Gallipoli: From Ataturk to Erdogan’ Foreign Affairs
April 23, 2015 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2015-04-23/one-hundred-years-
after-gallipoli

3. Arab-Israeli conflict. Why has the Middle East Peace Process failed to deliver two states?

Strategic rivalry and war between Israel, its Arab neighbors, and the Palestinians: how did the
direct causes of the conflict itself, inter-Arab relations, and superpower involvement impact on
the Arab-Israeli conflict? Were the principal issues at stake in the ‘permanent status
negotiations’ capable of resolution or was the ‘Oslo process’ doomed to fail? This is the classic
case of international diplomacy seeking and not finding an answer over 70 years, from the
armistices of 1948, through a fitfully convened Geneva process, Arab efforts at unified action,
the replacement of the UK and France by the US, Egypt’s unilateral diplomacy, the Camp David
Accords, Oslo, Camp David 2, the invention of the Quartet, Annapolis…. Some of the finest
minds in diplomacy and some of its most energetic practitioners have devoted their lives to this
issue without solving it. Can there be a 1,2 or 5 state solution?

Shlaim, A. ‘The Rise and Fall of the Oslo Peace Process’, in L. Fawcett (ed.), International Relations
of the Middle East (Oxford: 2016), pp. 285-303

Yezid Sayigh http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/10/01/oslo-accords-original-sin-or-opportunity-lost-

pub-61508

Nathan Thrall https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/the-real-reason-the-israel-

palestine-peace-process-always-fails

The 50 years war: Israel and the Arabs

Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSAD9pS8NIw
Part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtLorIXCcz4

Max Fisher Israel Picks Identity Over Democracy. More Nations May Follow. July 22, 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/world/middleeast/israel-jewish-state-nationality-
law.html

Peter Beinart, I No Longer Believe in a Jewish State, July 8, 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/opinion/israel-annexation-two-state-solution.html

Jonathan H. Ferziger, Gawdat Bahgat, Israel’s growing ties with the Arab Gulf states
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Israel’s-Growing-Ties-with-the-
Gulf-Arab-States.pdf

Khalil Shikaki, What Comes After the Middle East Peace Process? March 6, 2020
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-03-06/what-comes-after-middle-
east-peace-process

4. Iran in the region

The overthrow of the then Iranian Prime Minister, Mohammad Mossadeq, in 1953, paved the
way to the Islamic revolution of 1979. Does Iranian foreign policy since 1979 demonstrate more
the power of Islamist ideology and expansionist tendencies, or pragmatic interpretation of
Iranian national interest and raison d’état? Is Iran an expansionist power or simply filling the
vacuum created by the collapse of Arab states? Was the Trump administration right to pull out
of JCPOA? What defines the international politics of the Gulf? What is the interplay between oil,
identity, and external relations? What is the impact of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry?

Christopher de Bellaigue, Iran: Still Waiting for Democracy, New York Review of Books, 13 July
2017 at http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/07/13/iran-still-waiting-for- democracy/

Pompeo After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy

https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/05/282301.htm

Amir Toumaj, Qassem Soleimani boasts of Tehran’s expanded footprint throughout Middle
East, Long War Journal, 6 July 2017 at
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2017/07/qassem-soleimani-boasts-of-tehrans-
expanded-footprint-throughout-middle-east.php

Vali Nasr, Iran Among the Ruins, Foreign Affairs

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-02-13/iran-among-ruins

PBS Bitter Rivals

https://www.pbs.org/video/bitter-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-pqsnhk/
https://www.pbs.org/video/bitter-rivals-iran-and-saudi-arabia-part-two-ka4dlm/

Swamped in a triple crisis

Ali Fathollah-Nejad
Monday, June 3, 2019
https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/swamped-in-a-triple-crisis/

Four decades later, did the Iranian revolution fulfill its promises?
Ali Fathollah-Nejad
 Thursday, July 11, 2019
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/07/11/four-decades-later-did-the-
iranian-revolution-fulfill-its-promises/
DINA ESFANDIARY, Bridging the Divide between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula
https://tcf.org/content/report/bridging-divide-iran-arabian-peninsula/ MARCH 11, 2019

KARIM SADJADPOUR, The Iranian Hedgehog vs. the American Fox, JUN 21, 2019
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/us-iran-conflict-driven-trump-and-
khamenei/592297/

Seyed Hossein Mousavian, How Iran Sees Its Standoff With the United States, July 12, 2019
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-07-12/how-iran-sees-its-standoff-united-
states

5. 2003 Iraq war and its impact on regional order

Was Bush’s biggest mistake to invade Iraq – and Obama’s to withdraw from Iraq? Why did the
US-led Coalition invade Iraq in 2003? Can intervention work? Why did Iraq break down into civil
war? What brought the civil war to an end? Did the removal of all US troops in 2011 result in
rise of ISIS? Which way is Iraq heading?

Mearsheimer, JT and Stephen M. Walt, “Iraq: An Unnecessary War,” Foreign Policy,

January/February 2003. http://mearsheimer.uchicago.edu/pdfs/A0032.pdf

Pollack, KM “Spies, Lies, and Weapons: What Went Wrong,” The Atlantic Monthly,
January/February 2004, pp. 78-92.

Scowcroft, B “Don't Attack Saddam,” Wall Street Journal, August 15, 2002.
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2002/08/15_scowcroft_dont-attack.htm

Bill Burns, How we tried to slow the rush to war in Iraq

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/13/bill-burns-back-channel-book-excerpt-
iraq-225731

Emma Sky, Surge to Sovereignty, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2011-03-

01/iraq-surge-sovereignty

Emma Sky, How Obama Abandoned Democracy in Iraq, April 07, 2015
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/04/obama-iraq-116708_full.html?print

HARITH HASAN, A Vehicle for Revolution, March 02, 2020

https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/81176

Robert Worth, Inside the Iraqi Kleptocracy

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/magazine/iraq-corruption.html
PBS Frontline, once upon a time in Iraq, 14 July 2020
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/once-upon-a-time-in-iraq/

6. Sectarianism and Identity politics

How does sectarianism affect state-society relations and the international relations of states in the
region? Is sectarianism a form of identity politics? How about tribalism?

Fanar Haddad, Sectarian Identity and National Identity in the Middle East, 2020
https://www.academia.edu/41485843/Sectarian_Identity_and_National_Identity_in_the_Midd
le_East

Harith Hasan al-Qarawee, Religious leaders and Sunni-Shia divide in Middle East, p13-20 in
Islam and Human Rights
https://issuu.com/atlanticcouncil/docs/islam_and_human_rights_web_0613

Ussama Makdisi, THE MYTHOLOGY OF THE SECTARIAN MIDDLE EAST

https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/5a20626a/CME-pub-Sectarianism-021317.pdf

JUSTIN GENGLER http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/08/29/political-economy-of-sectarianism-

in-gulf-pub-64410

Karl Sharro, https://tcf.org/content/report/retreat-universalism-middle-east-world/, the

Century Foundation, April 2019

7. Islamism, al-Qaeda and ISIS

What accounts for the rise of religion as a political force, taking the case of Islamism: its
sources, directions, and impacts. Is Islamism (political Islam) primarily an expression of domestic
social and economic crisis, or rather a conscious response to cultural globalization and Western
political hegemony? Are Islamist movements in the Middle East necessarily militant and violent,
anti-democratic, and/or anti-American? Why were ISIS and al-Qaeda able to attract followers
and do they have a future?

Wood, Graeme http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-

wants/384980/

Melhem, Hisham http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/2014/08/16/Enough-lies-the-Arab-

body-politic-created-the-ISIS-cancer.html
Nathan Brown http://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/11/official-islam-in-arab-world-
contest-for-religious-authority-pub-69929

Adam Nossiter, ‘That Ignoramus’: 2 French Scholars of Radical Islam Turn Bitter Rivals, July
2016 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/world/europe/france-radical-islam.html?_r=0

Malcolm Nance and Christopher Sampson, Keys to the cyber-caliphate: An excerpt from
“Hacking ISIS” 4 June 2018
https://www.salon.com/2018/06/04/keys-to-the-cyber-caliphate-an-excerpt-from-hacking-isis/

John Jenkins The Importance of History: The Chatham House Version Revisited
https://policyexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Kedourie-Lecture-short-
version.pdf

Gopal, Anand. “The Hell After ISIS,” The Atlantic, May 2016.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/05/the-hell-after-isis/476391/

Khan, Azmat, and Anand Gopal. “The Uncounted.” The New York Times, 16 Nov. 2017,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/11/16/magazine/uncounted-civilian-casualties-iraq-
airstrikes.html?_r=0

8. Why did the Arab Revolutions fail?

Why did the Arab Spring fail to bring democracy to the Arab world? What accounts for the
success of the counter-revolutions? Are monarchies more resilient than republics to shocks?

Hisham Melhem
https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/05/the-arab-world-has-never-recovered-from-the-loss-of-
1967/

Yezid Sayigh http://carnegie-mec.org/2016/11/20/who-made-arab-spring-into-arab-crisis-pub-

66207

Lynch, Marc, (2016) The New Arab Wars: Uprisings and Anarchy in the Middle East, p123-158,
208-244

Worth, Robert, (2016) A Rage for Order: The Middle East in Turmoil, from Tahrir Square to ISIS.
20-72, 150-200

Steven Cook, The Middle Eastern Revolutions That Never Were, October 26, 2015
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/26/the-middle-eastern-revolutions-that-
never-were/

Hussein Agha and Robert Malley, This Is Not a Revolution, NOVEMBER 8, 2012

https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2012/11/08/not-revolution/

David Gardner, The long march of autocracy across the Middle East, July 31, 2019
https://www.ft.com/content/70540b82-b2dd-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b?
fbclid=IwAR2BDKFsUwIChK4bzF5IdlCmw-oD7o53lt7JuaakOyaqXHa-DjSY-dzZw7A

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-15/middle-easts-lost-decades

Dexter Filkins, the thin red line, new Yorker, 13 May 2013
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/05/13/the-thin-red-line-2

Ben Rhodes, Inside the White House During the Syrian 'Red Line' Crisis, the Atlantic, 3 June
2018 https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/inside-the-white-house-
during-the-syrian-red-line-crisis/561887/
Frederic C Hof, I Got Syria So Wrong, 14 October 2015 at http://
www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/syria-civil-war-213242

Anand Gopal, Syria’s Last Bastion of Freedom, the New Yorker, December 10, 2018
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/12/10/syrias-last-bastion-of-freedom

Michael A. Ratney, Five Conundrums: The United States and the Conflict in Syria, Strategic
Perspectives 32, July 31, 2019
https://inss.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/stratperspective/inss/Strategic-Perspectives-
32.pdf?ver=2019-07-31-110328-543

Jonathan Schanzer and Merve Tahiroglu, ‘Ankara's Failure: How Turkey Lost the Arab Spring’
Foreign Affairs, January 25, 2016 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-01-
25/ankaras-failure

LYDIA ASSOUAD, Inequality and Its Discontents in the Middle East, MARCH 12, 2020
https://carnegie-mec.org/2020/03/12/inequality-and-its-discontents-in-middle-east-pub-81266

9. Oil and political economy

What is a rentier state? How does it affect state formation? Is oil a blessing or a curse?

G. Luciani, ‘Oil and Political Economy in the International Relations of the Middle East’, in L.
Fawcett (ed.), International Relations of the Middle East (Oxford: 2016), pp. 105-130.

Mitchell, ‘Carbon Democracy,’ http://vimeo.com/41913242

Michael Ross, The Oil Curse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y7ESq_O3Odw

Meghan O’Sullivan, Windfall, (Simon and Schuster: 2017), pp 252-263

10. Refugees

MAHA YAHYA

http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/11/09/refugees-and-making-of-arab-regional-disorder-pub-
61901

ALEXANDRA FRANCIS
http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/09/21/jordan-s-refugee-crisis-pub-61338

https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/18/refugee-crises-in-arab-world-pub-77522

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/11/25/turkeys-syrian-refugees-
the-welcome-fades/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/31/lebanon-is-sick-and-tired-of-syrian-refugees/

Easing Syrian Refugees’ Plight in Lebanon, 13 FEBRUARY 2020

https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/lebanon/211-
easing-syrian-refugees-plight-lebanon

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/feature/2020/05/14/Jordan-coronavirus-refugees

11. Climate change

How does climate change affect the middle east? What can be done?

The Arab Spring and Climate Change, Center for American Progress, February 2013
https://cdn.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf
Climate change is making the Arab World more miserable, The Economist, May 2018
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/05/31/climate-change-is-making-
the-arab-world-more-miserable?
cid1=cust/ednew/n/bl/n/20180531n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/126067/n&utm_source=newslette
r&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors_Picks&utm_term=20180531

UNDP, Climate Change Adaptation in the Arab States: Best practices and lessons learned, July
2018 https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Arab-States-CCA.pdf
Amal Kandeel http://www.mei.edu/content/article/climate-change-middle-east-faces-water-
crisis and http://www.mei.edu/content/article/millions-rural-working-women-egypt-risk-
climate-change

Greenwood, Scott. “Water Insecurity, Climate Change and Governance in the Arab World,”
Middle East Policy, volume 21, number 2, Spring 2014, pp. 140-156.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/mepo.12077

Sowers, Jeannine, Avner Vengosh and Erika Weinthal.  “Climate Change, Water Resources and
the Politics of Adaptation in the Middle East and North Africa,” Climatic Change, number 104,
2011, pp. 599-627.

Sofia Barbarani, How the great tides of history turned https://rivers.thenational.ae/?

fbclid=IwAR0q6aVxCWXYSvgaKfRszgkq9f9IvQZVKYdKkpOT4GY-XWRxz7EUWE6PaNo

Peter Harling, Nature’s insurgency: Water wanted in the land of plenty, August 5, 2019
http://www.synaps.network/natures-insurgency

https://www.wilsonquarterly.com/quarterly/water-in-a-world-of-conflict/sea-sun-and-peace/

12. The return to great power rivalry in the region: US, Russia, and China

The only enduring security order in the region since Ottoman times has been that guaranteed by
an external hegemon. The apparent reluctance of the US to play this role any more has opened
up the region to great power competition. The Middle East is one of multiple and competing
spheres of influence. A revanchist Russia seeks to weaken the US-led liberal world order by
taking a stand in Syria, supporting Assad against the US-led coalition and flooding the European
Union with refugees fleeing its aerial bombardment. A rising and dissatisfied China pursues
“one belt, one road” for the acquisition of minerals and energy, building oil and gas pipelines -
as well as other infrastructure - across the Middle East, cultivating a close relationship in
particular with Iran.

Jeffrey Goldberg, Obama Doctrine. The Atlantic, April 2016

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/
Rebecca Friedman Lissner & Mira Rapp-Hooper (2018) The Day after Trump: American Strategy
for a New International Order, The Washington Quarterly, 41:1, 7-25, DOI:
10.1080/0163660X.2018.144535
https://twq.elliott.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2121/f/downloads/TWQ_Spring2018_LissnerRa
ppHooper_0.pdf

Ann Wright, Killer Drones and the Militarization of U.S. Foreign Policy, AFSA, June 2017 at
http://www.afsa.org/killer-drones-and-militarization-us-foreign-policy

Chas Freeman, A Middle East with No Master, May 2018

https://chasfreeman.net/a-middle-east-with-no-master/

Steven A. Cook, Lost in the Middle East, April 27, 2018 https://www.cfr.org/blog/lost-middle-
east

Dmitri Trenin, Russia Will Get Stuck in Syria for a Long Time, February 2018
https://carnegie.ru/2018/02/24/russia-will-get-stuck-in-syria-for-long-time-pub-75640

Jessica Tuchman Mathews, Russia Replaces America as the Power Player in the Middle East,
March 2018
https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/06/russia-replaces-america-as-power-player-in-
middle-east-pub-75726

Dina Esfandiary and Ariane M. Tabatabai, Will China Undermine Trump's Iran Strategy? July 20,
2018 https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2018-07-20/will-china-undermine-trumps-
iran-strategy?cid=int-lea&pgtype=hpg

Hal Brands, China, Russia and Iran Are Forming an Axis of Autocracy, Bloomberg, April 2018
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-19/china-russia-and-iran-are-forming-an-
axis-of-autocracy

Robert Kaplan, America Must Prepare for the Coming Chinese Empire, National Interest, June
27, 2019
https://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/america-must-prepare-coming-chinese-empire-
63102

KEITH JOHNSON, Who Lost Turkey?, JULY 19, 2019

https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/07/19/who-lost-turkey-middle-east-s-400-missile-deal-russia-
syria-iraq-kurdish-united-states-nato-alliance-partners-allies-adversaries/?
utm_source=PostUp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14260&utm_term=Flashpoints
%20OC
What the West gets wrong about Russia's role in the Middle East, Dmitriy Frolovskiy
https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/what-west-gets-wrong-about-russias-role-middle-east

ALEC LUHN, Putin’s game in the Middle East, 17 Jan 2020

https://www.politico.eu/article/game-in-the-middle-east-vladimir-putin/

Erzsébet N. Rózsa
DECIPHERING CHINA IN THE MIDDLE EAST, 30 June 2020
https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief%2014%20China%20MENA_0.pdf

Farnaz Fassihi and Steven Lee Myers

Defying U.S., China and Iran Near Trade and Military Partnership, July 11, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/11/world/asia/china-iran-trade-military-deal.html

CHINA’S GREAT GAME IN THE MIDDLE EAST, ECFR, Oct 2019

https://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/china_great_game_middle_east.pdf

13. Black Wave: Kim Ghattas

 STEVEN A. COOK Lebanon as We Know It Is Dying, JULY 30, 2020

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/30/lebanon-as-we-know-it-is-dying/

Martin Chulov
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/30/i-can-see-the-despair-on-their-faces-
lebanons-economy-unravels