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Why Is Todd Combs Bullish on Western Union?

Posted By Ravi Nagarajan On October 27, 2010 @ 5:45 pm In Berkshire Hathaway,Featured
Articles,Investing | 1 Comment

There has been much speculation this week regarding the reasons behind Warren Buffett’s
[1]
decision to hire Todd Combs to manage a portion of Berkshire Hathaway’s investment
portfolio. Although short term stock price movements are meaningless, some observers
have attributed Berkshire Hathaway’s stock performance over the past two days to
investor discomfort with the selection, although it is equally plausible that investors are
simply refocusing on their discomfort with the overall succession issue.

More information regarding Mr. Combs will no doubt emerge in due

course so spending time speculating on his qualifications and background is a rather
pointless exercise. In the meantime, it is more productive to take a look at his highest
[2]
conviction positions based on the June 30 13-F report filed with the SEC in early
[3]
August. According to a recent article quoting a letter Mr. Combs sent to his investors
on October 19, Western Union is one of his favorite investments:

Among Combs’s favorite stocks currently is Western Union, according to a

letter Castle Point sent to investors on Oct. 19.

The company is poised to expand its share of the global remittance market,
and that should support strong cash flow, Combs explained in the letter.

Western Union was an original member of the Dow Jones Transportation

Average in 1884, he noted. “One of its survivors, Western Union, has shown
that it can endure the toughest of operating environments and preserve
capital throughout economic cycles,” Combs wrote.

Castle Point owned 1,224,000 shares of Western Union on June 30 and represented the
fund’s fourth largest position. In this article, we will take a brief look at Western Union
based on a quick review of the company’s latest 10-K report along with other recent
filings.

Background and Overview

In the interests of brevity, we will focus on Western Union’s recent history as a company
primarily occupied with money transfer and payment services. However, Western Union
[4]
has a fascinating history dating back to the mid 19th century and a basic summary can
be found on Wikipedia for those who are interested.

Western Union was a subsidiary of First Data until it was spun off in early 2006. The
company currently operates in three segments: Consumer to Consumer, Global Business

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Payments, and Other. We will focus on the two most important segments: Consumer-
to-Consumer and Global Business Payments. The other segment is primarily comprised of
Western Union’s money order business and accounted for less than two percent of total
company revenues in 2009.

Consumer-to-Consumer Segment

Money transfers between two individuals is the most important business for Western Union
and accounted for 84.6 percent of revenues in 2009. The vast majority of money
transfers are cross-border transactions in which a customer in one country sends
remittances to a recipient in another country. The business is heavily dependent on
migrants who need to send funds to family members in their country of origin. As a
result, transaction volumes can be sensitive to overall economic conditions in countries
that have a high level of migrant workers. In 2009, the consumer-to-consumer segment
processed $71 billion in principal transfers, of which $65 billion were cross-border
transfers.

The exhibit below presents some basic data for this segment based on information
provided in company filings:

The business earns fees both based on explicit charges associated with the principal being
transferred as well as foreign exchange income derived from a spread between the
exchange rate used in the transfer and the exchange rate that Western Union pays to
obtain funds. We can see that the business has attractive operating margins in the high
twenty percent range. The average principal transferred per transaction is relatively
modest and consistent with the small remittances that migrant workers are likely to be
able to send to relatives in their home countries.

Over the past four years, we can see that total transaction fees as a percentage of total
principal volume has fallen from 5.8 percent in 2006 to 4.5 percent in the first nine
months of 2010. This is likely due to increased competition from other payment services.
However, Western Union seems to be somewhat insulated from competition based on
brand recognition and the fact that the company has a very large number of agents
located in over 200 countries. While transaction fees as a percentage of total volume has

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fallen, the company’s various restructuring initiatives appear to have been sufficient to
maintain operating margins.

Global Business Payments

The global business payments segment provides several options for consumers to make
payments to businesses such as utilities, auto finance companies, mortgage servicers, and
government agencies. In September 2009, Western Union acquired Custom House which
facilitates cross-border cross-currency services. One interesting service provided by the
segment is the “Equity Accelerator” product which charges an up-front fee to customers
who wish to schedule additional recurring principal payments on their mortgages,
apparently targeting customers who do not have the discipline to simply make extra
payments on their own.

The following exhibit presents selected data for the global business payments segment
based on recent company filings:

We can see that this segment also provides attractive operating income margins, although
the acquisition of Custom House has somewhat depressed overall segment margins since
the acquisition in late 2009. The increase in foreign exchange revenues is mostly
accounted for by the Custom House business.

Business Risks

There are a number of potential risks that should be considered when examining Western
Union. Here is a list compiled based on a brief review of the company’s recent filings and
related research:

High Debt Levels. The company had $3.3 billion in borrowings as of September
30, 2010 which accounted for 88 percent of total capitalization. Although the
current profitability of Western Union can easily service the interest on this debt
and the company’s credit rating should allow debt to be rolled over upon maturity,
any potential erosion in the business over time could leave the company exposed.
Competitive Landscape. Western Union’s consumer-to-consumer business model
is built upon the ability to charge relatively high fees to consumers transferring
small sums. The company’s broad distribution network and brand name provides a
significant amount of protection (the “moat”) but as customers become more
comfortable with electronic payment options, competition from services such as
PayPal or Xoom could begin to take share.
Increased Technological Sophistication of Customer Base. As more
customers in developing countries obtain cellular phones with increasingly
sophisticated capabilities, the need for physical agency locations may somewhat
diminish. Smart phones and electronic payment options could allow customers to
use services such as PayPal to realize substantial cost savings. For example, typical
[5]
PayPal fees for international transfers are in the 4 percent range. Western Union
fees vary but can be substantial especially for very small transfers. For example,

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the company has run “$50 for $5″ promotions in which customers can transfer up
to $50 for a flat $5 fee, and this is apparently a discounted rate compared to
normal fees.
Dependency on Immigration. The company’s customer base is heavily
dependent on immigrants who work in developed countries and send funds to
[6]
family members in their home countries. There has been negative publicity
surrounding some of the company’s operations and the company recently paid $71
million to the state of Arizona to settle a lawsuit related to its business practices.
The political climate in the United States and in many parts of Western Europe has
become increasingly critical of immigration. Major curtailment of immigration in
general could adversely impact Western Union’s business.
Brand May Not Fully Protect Moat. Western Union’s brand name is synonymous
with safety. Customers know that funds sent to their relatives will arrive safely.
They are willing to pay relatively steep fees to ensure the safety of their money.
However, it is unlikely that customers necessarily have the same emotional
attachment to Western Union that they may have to brands such as Johnson &
Johnson or Coca Cola. In other words, if services of equal perceived safety are
available at a lower cost, few emotional ties are likely to keep customers loyal to
Western Union.

Summary

We began the article by asking why Todd Combs is bullish on Western Union. Clearly, the
business has proven that it has a significant moat based on the margins that have been
achieved historically and there appears to be no reason to think that this moat will erode
in the very near future. Based on company filings and conference calls, management is
well aware of competitive threats and is seeking to put in place services that should
compete with PayPal and other electronic payment services.

Western Union resembles a “toll bridge” and fits many of the criteria that Warren Buffett
likes to see in a business. The company has strong cash flows and is easily able to
operate with minimal levels of capital. At a recent stock price of around $18 per share,
the valuation isn’t particularly high given projected 2010 earnings of $1.30 to $1.40 per
share. However, the business is not without risk and there appears to be a reasonable
possibility that the moat may be eroded to some degree in the future which could lead to
margin pressure.

It is not difficult to see why a value investor following Warren Buffett’s investment
approach would like Western Union shares, although one would have to be convinced that
the risk factors are not severe enough to significantly pressure margins going forward.
Our brief review of Western Union has not provided the level of confidence required to
own shares at the current price, although further study of the severity of the risk factors
and the company’s strategy could very well lead to a more favorable conclusion.

Resources:

[7]
Western Union 2009 10-K
[8]
Western Union Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Press Release
[9]
Western Union Q3 2010 Conference Call Transcript
[10]
Western Union Investor Day Materials

Disclosure: The author of this article does not own shares of Western Union. The author
owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway.

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[11]
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1 Comment To "Why Is Todd Combs Bullish on Western

Union?"

#1 Comment By Tom On October 28, 2010 @ 8:33 pm

WU has not provided $1 of value for every dollar retained for shareholders and I do not
forsee that happening in this business environment for some time to come. It would be
difficult to argue WU is a low hurtle investment or a great business at a reasonable price.

Article printed from The Rational Walk: http://www.rationalwalk.com

URL to article: http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=10050

URLs in this post:

[1] Warren Buffett’s decision to hire Todd Combs: http://www.rationalwalk.com

/?p=10038
[2] 13-F report: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1426107
/000142610710000011/cpcm13fq22010.txt
[3] recent article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/berkshires-new-man-combs-
uncovered-2010-10-26?pagenumber=2
[4] basic summary: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_union
[5] typical PayPal fees: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_display-
fees-outside
[6] negative publicity: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/22/world/22western.html
[7] Western Union 2009 10-K: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1365135
/000095012310018216/d70348e10vk.htm
[8] Western Union Third Quarter 2010 Earnings Press Release: http://www.sec.gov
/Archives/edgar/data/1365135/000119312510236656/dex991.htm
[9] Western Union Q3 2010 Conference Call Transcript: http://seekingalpha.com/article
/232496-western-unio-q3-2010-earnings-call-transcript?source=thestreet
[10] Western Union Investor Day Materials: http://phx.corporate-ir.net
/phoenix.zhtml?c=203395&p=irol-presentations
[11] GM to Acquire AmeriCredit; Revisiting Berkowitz’s Bullish Thesis:
http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=8454
[12] National Oilwell Varco Profile and Analysis: http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=7239
[13] Tilson is Bullish on Large Cap Stocks Including J&J, Microsoft and Berkshire:
http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=9391
[14] Wesco Financial’s Results Improve Despite Continued Weak Sales at CORT:
http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=9038

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