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Market Driven Mass Transit Systems:


Hong Kong and German Financing Models
for Adaptation in the Philippines

Rommel C. Gavieta MA (URP) MSc (Eng)


Vice President, Metro Rail Transit Corporation Professor,
Graduate School of Business, De La Salle University
Research Associate York Centre for Asian Research

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METRO MANILA URBAN FORM

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Urbanization Globally and Metro Manila as a Mega City

„ In 1800, only 2 per cent of the


world’s population was urbanized.

„ By the year 1900, out of a total


world population of close to 1.5 to
1.7 billion, only 15 percent of the
population, about 250 million, lived
and worked in urban areas, a
number lower than the total urban
population of India alone today.

„ By the year 1950 the proportion of


urban to total global population
had risen to 30 per cent, with
Europe, North America and
Oceania having the highest levels
of urbanization then.

„ By the year 2000, 2.8 billion


people lived in urban areas
equaling approximately 49 percent
of the world's population.

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Privatization of Urban Planning in Metro Manila

Metro Manila represents a rather extreme version of the privatization of planning. A defining characteristic
of urban development of Metro Manila is the unprecedented privatization of urban and regional planning.

„ Local and national government: the public sector’s capacity to plan has been fundamentally
compromised due to pressures for fiscal austerity, and governments have embraced the
view that urban development is best left to the private sector.

„ Private developers had landholdings which were carry over from the plantation economy. This created
an oligopolistic real estate agents of ‘cutting edge’ innovations in urban development. Large property
developers have assumed new planning powers and developed visions for metro-scale development in
the wake of the retreat of government from city-building and consequent deterioration of the urban
environment.

„ These developers are lured into the property sector by the profits to be realized from an emerging
consumer class of ‘winners’ in the globalization of these urban economies, and from multinational and
local corporate investors.

„ Private developers naturally tapped foreign planners and architects for models of urbanism that
are attractive, efficient, consumer-oriented, and therefore profitable. Yet, while their designs are
influenced by planning models from the United States and Europe, their central purpose is to distinguish
urban mega-projects from the rest of the city in the quality and aesthetic character of the spaces created
in order to attract the consumer class and maximize profit. Hence their impact is less to ‘Westernize’
urban form than it is to commodify the urban experience.

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Property Ownership Characteristics in Metro Manila

Philippines Hong Kong and Singapore


The government is the largest owner of land in
„ Historically, ownership of private lands in the
Philippines has been concentrated in the hands Hong Kong and through land sales it has
of the traditional elite and the educated middle influenced land prices to improve the
class. competitiveness of manufacturers
„ These families have the financial resources,
political connections and access to information
that allowed them to amassed alienable and
disposable public lands through homesteads
and/or sale under both the Spanish and
American colonial governments.

„ A real estate census conducted in 1938


showed that private individuals owned about
92.2% of private lands in the country and
associations and religious organizations owned
about 3.9% and 0.6%, respectively.

„ Those individuals who own land comprise only


about 18% of total Philippine population.

„ The distribution of private lands is noted to be


more skewed in Metro Manila were an average
of 4% of the region’s population owned land in
the city.

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Metro Manila Land Use Map

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Current (1996) & Future (2015) Traffic Corridors in Metro Manila

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Metro Manila Mass Transit System and Commercial Business Districts

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Funding Gaps for Urban Transit Systems

500,000 average daily


ridership
Full operation since 2000

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EDSA MRT3 Corridor
and Metro Manila Commercial Business Districts

MRT3 System Growth Areas of Metro


(services the EDSA Corridor) Manila with Private Sector
„ 16 kilometers
Land Banks
„ 13 stations
1. MRT3 EDSA Corridor
„ North Triangle
„ MRT3 serves 4 of the growth areas
in Metro Manila „ Araneta
„ Growth areas in Metro Manila „ Ortigas
includes North Triangle, Araneta, „ Shaw
Ortigas, Shaw, Pioneer and Ayala „ Pioneer
„ EDSA Corridor has a 1.5 million „ Ayala (Including Buendia &
commuter traffic a day and growing Magallanes)
at 2% per annum 8 stations linking growth areas with
a predominantly Private Sector
Land Bank

2. Non-EDSA Corridor
„ Eastwood
„ Fort Bonifacio
„ Alabang
„ Laguna
„ Bataan

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PROPERTY MARKET
IN METRO MANILA

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SE Asian Real Estate Development to


Economic Development

Real estate sector is an important production factor in generating economic output as measured by GDP.
„ real estate represents about 45% of the GDP in mature developed countries.
„ higher quality real estate tends to be less than 45% of GDP in developing countries.
„ real estate loans represented 15% (RP) to 40% (MAL & THA) and represented 7% (IND) to 55% (MAL)
of GNP in SE Asia

In the Philippines the business indicators of the real estate sector includes:
„ hurdle rate of return is between 16.4% to 22.8%
„ Risk premium relative to US Real Estate market of the Philippines is between
8.9% to12.3%

Liang, Youguo Ph.D., CFA & Gordon, Nancy M.; A Bird’s Eye View of Global Real Estate Markets; Pramerica
Real Estate Investors; March 2003; USA
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SE Asian Real Estate Boom and Bust Cycles

„ Five and ten-


ten-year house price change (%) in
selected Asian countries

2002-
2002-2007
1997-
1997-2007

COUNTRY Nominal Real


Real Real
HongKong 32.88 32.24
-39.95 -35.91
Thailand 32.12 14.01
37.48 4.22
SouthKorea 31.84 14.01
41.40 2.75
Singapore 17.77 13.44
-17.42 -21.87
Malaysia 17.34 4.99
13.22 -3.07
Philippines 32.31 2.92
Economists and analysts note that the bubble burst after the -11.79 -48.27
Indonesia 43.39 -5.30
1997 crisis is about to breach the two- to four-year boom-bust 109.25 -43.71
cycle.
Source: Global Property Guide December 5, 2007

Unlike other popular Southeast Asian hot spots, Malaysia is the only country which does not restrict foreign real
estate investment properties buyers to leasehold arrangements or  apartments only property ownership. Other
countries like Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, Hong Kong and even Singapore do not allow land ownership.
Another big advantage is the liberal banks of Kuala Lumpur which have rules for overseas investors to be granted
mostly strings-
strings-free mortgages and up to 90% secure finance mortgage in most cases
cases

Source: Global Investments Ltd November 5, 2007


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Trends supporting consumer spending in the Philippines

„ Demographic forces support demand

„ Expansion of the homebuyer base OFW and


call center service industry

„ Mortgage securitization

600.00 18.00

16.00
500.00
14.00

400.00 12.00
Ayala Corporation
10.00
300.00 Ayala Land Inc
8.00

200.00 6.00

4.00
100.00
2.00

- -
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 29- 29- 28- 27- 30- 29- 29- 29- 28-
Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec- Dec-
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

Real Estate Price benchmarked against


Ayala Land Inc Stock Price

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Link between Property Values & Transit Development
European cities: North American Experiences:
1. London Docklands Light Railway: open 1987, 1. St-Louis, Missouri (opened 1993, 18 miles/18 stations):
„ Prior assessment proved correct: 50% of capital cost was „ Development spurred by transit system totals $530 millions and
recaptured through transport costs reduction, reduction in includes major projects.
congestion and in accident, while 50% was recaptured through
overall office development and job creation. „ A $1,5 billion expansion to LRT is expected to have a $2,3 billion
impact on business sales.
2. Strasbourg, France (built 1991-94):
„ Park-and-ride schemes near the city centre resulted in an increase 3.. San Diego Trolley, California, a LRT which connects to Tijuana:
of 100% of transit system users and draw shoppers from outside „ Since construction, some 4 million sq. feet of Class A office space
the metropolitan area. has been added to downtown area, with population growing from 0
to 20 000 persons.
3 . Helsinki Metro, Finland (1982):
„ Price of property located within walking distance of the nearest 4. Metro Toronto Subway (built during 1950s & 1960s):
railway or metro station increased 7,5% over other locations. „ 90% of all new office spaces and 40% of apartment buildings in
Impact was most significant at a distance of 500-750 m., as Toronto took place along the metro lines.
opposed to adjacent locations, where values dropped.
„ Tax assessment values near City centre stations rose by 45% and
4. Vienna S-Bahn, Austria (opened 1962, 14 km.): by 107% around suburban stations, as opposed to 25% elsewhere.
„ Districts located along S-Bahn corridor have witnessed increases
in number of new housing units of 18,7% over 10 yr. period, as „ Office space rents adjacent to the stations average 30% more than
opposed to 4% and 10% in more remote locations. average for the City as a whole, while office rents within 500 m. of
stations rose by 10% more than average.
5. Nantes, France: 5. Chicago LRT:
„ 25% of new offices, 13% of new commercial premises and 25% of „ Chicago Transit Authority estimates that maintaining a “good repair”
new residential dwellings were built adjacent to LRT. scenario in its transit system would yield $4,6 billion in additional
business sales, 41 209 jobs over 20 years and annual tax revenues
of $154 million.

„ Overall, Chicago authority projected that return on capital


investment in LRT was $6 for every $1 spent.

6. Dallas Area Rapid Transit (DART):


„ Value of property nearby the DART lines is 25% higher than
similar real estate elsewhere in the area.

7. Washington DC (2001)
„ After $9.5 billion in expenditures, the completed system had
generated between $10 and $15 billion in new land value.
Hack, Jonathan, Regeneration and Spatial Development: a Review
of Research and Current Practice, IBI Group, Toronto, 2002.

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GLOBAL LESSONS IN TRANSIT FINANCING

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Traditional Sources of Financing for Transit Systems

National Regional/ State/ Corporate Farebox/ Others


Local
US Capital fund Operating fund partial farebox
Canada Capital/Operating funds Local Government Unit
(LGU) revenue from real
estate taxes for cross-
subsidies
Germany/ Austria/ Capital fund Minimal Operating fund cross-subsidy by regional farebox minimal
ow ned public utility
companies for operating and
France capital expansion
UK Capital fund for London area Operating partial farebox
only
Hong Kong (2.5 million Capital fund (recovered Metro Transit Rail partial farebox and
partially by retaining commercial development
passengers a day over Corporation for operating (250,000 sqm plus 125,000
ow nership and generating sqm of GFA commercial
91 km) real estate taxes) and capital expansion developmet)
HK Government gave a KH$
8.9 billion subsidy instead of
development to build a line in
w estern district
Singapore Capital fund Metro Transit Rail advertising rights
Corporation for operating
and capital expansion
Malaysia Capital/Operating funds farebox minimal
Philippines (1.1 million Capital/Operating funds partial farebox and partial
commercial development
passengers a day over
payment from concession
45 km) holder

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Transit and Non-Transit Data

Financial ratios

Operating profit from railway & related 49.3% 52.2%


operations before depreciation as a % of
turnover

Non-fare revenue as a % of turnover 27.7% 25.6%

Gross Debt/equity ratio** 55.9% 62.5%*

Interest cover (in times) 5.6 4.5

MTR data US Transit data

Average Transit Revenue: 40% to 55%


Average Non-Transit Revenue: 25% to 30%
Average Subsidies: 40% to 20%

UK Transit data

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Fare Subsidies
Classic Justification for Transit Fare Hong Kong Has Fare Autonomy
Subsidies in the Developed World Regime
„ scale economies imply that the marginal „ MTRC has commercial autonomy to set
social cost of supplying passenger miles its own fares according to free market
forces.
is less than the average cost. These
scale economies may arise from fixed
costs, such as track and station Philippines Fare Setting ad
maintenance; but more importantly they Subsidies
arise from the “Mohring effect”, whereby „ Fare increases was politicized and a tool
by government to provide affordable
user costs of waiting at transit stops or transportation to Metro Manila in the
accessing transit decline as service face of US$ 100 per barrel oil prices.
frequency or route density is increased
(Mohring 1972). A related point is that „ MRT3 average fare rate is 50% less
higher passenger density allows vehicles compared to comparable air-conditioned
average bus fare rate
to be operated with higher occupancy,
thereby saving on agency costs.

„ lower transit fares discourage automobile


use, there by reducing external costs from
traffic congestion, local and global air
pollution, and traffic accidents.

Should Urban Transit Subsidies Be Reduced? ; Parry, Ian


W.H. and Small, Kenneth A. Small; Department of Economics
University of California, Irvine, CA 92797-5100; May 2007
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PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT
AND TRANSIT FINANCING
(Philippine adaptation of MRT Hong Kong Model)

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Comparison of Property Holdings of
MTR Hong Kong and Properties along the MRT3 Corridor

Current Valuation MRT3 Valuation adjusted for


Land Area GFA Corridor proximity to MRT3 Line

MTR 2,115,400.00 12,864,771.60

MRT3 Corridor (privately held land) 2,790,000.00 6,998,921.15 341,775,000,000.00 427,218,750,000.00

MRT3 Corridor (publicly held land) 1,520,000.00 551,000.00 489,924,480,286.74 612,405,600,358.42

Notes:

1. MTR excludes plans for new Kowloon development

2. MRT3 private dvelopment only includes prime developments

Hong Kong Philippines


Hurdle rate: 13.4% 19.2%
Est of High Grade GDP Real Estate Value GDP Real Estate Value
Real Estate (2002) US$ 163 b US$ 147 b US$ 75 b US$ 12 b

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Land Banks Along MRT3 Corridor (Quezon City)
North Avenue Station Ortigas Station
North Triangle 250 hectare Commercial Ortigas Commercial Business Center
Business District at least 100 hectares (Ortigas family)
1. Trinoma Mall (Ayala Family) 1. Robinsons Galleria (Gokongwei
(Gokongwei Family)
„ Ayala’
Ayala’s new commercial center is a 200,000 „ 216,00 sqm leasable 5-level shopping mall with 400
square meter lot is bigger than Glorietta.
Glorietta. shops, dining outlets, entertainment facilities and
„ It is a 195,000 sqm leasable area 4-Level service centers.
Super Regional Shopping Center with 550 „ mixed-use complex composed of two high-rise office
retail, entertainment and food outlets, seven towers, the Holiday Inn Galleria Manila and Crowne
cinemas and 3,500-
3,500-slot parking area. Galleria Manila, the Galleria Regency and the historic
2. SM City (Sy
(Sy Family) EDSA Shrine
„ 5th largest mall in the world
„ 351,000 sqm leasable area

Cubao Station
Araneta Center 35 hectare CBD
(Araneta Family)
2 million commuter and
shopper traffic a day
1. Gateway Mall
2. Farmers Market
3. Ali Mall

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Land Bank Along MRT3 Corridor (Pasig City & Mandaluyong City)
Shaw Station
Ortigas Commercial Business Center Pioneer Station
(at least 100 hectares) Robinsons CyberGate Center
1. SM Megamall (Sy Family) (Gokongwei family)
„ 8th largest mall in the world • Robinsons Pioneer Mall 56,000 sqm leasable 3-storey
„ 332,00 sqm leasable area mall with 15 anchor shopping mall with over a hundred stores & outlets
tenants, 600 shops, 200 restaurants, ten
cinemas and 5,000 slot parking area

2. EDSA Shangri-
Shangri-la Mall (Kuok
(Kuok corporation)
„ 175,000 sqm leasable area for high- end shopping
and linked to EDSA Shangrila Hotel

3. Greenfield District 24 hectare (Campos family)


„ EDSA Central Mall 16,000 sqm leasable area
„ Currently converting a landbank from a
pharmaceutical plant into a commercial business
district.

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Land Banks Along MRT3 Corridor (Makati City)
„ Central Business District (CBD) This is where
Buendia, Ayala and Magallanes many of the country's tallest skyscrapers are located.
Station „ Many of the country's wealthiest families live in
North and South Forbes Park, originally
Ayala Commercial Business Center is 900 developed in 1948, and Dasmariñ Village,
Dasmariñas Village,
originally developed in the 1960's, on the other
hectares which is more than half the land area of side of EDSA from the Central Business
Makati City District. Other well-
well-to-
to-do people live in San
Lorenzo Village, Urdaneta Village, Bel-
Bel-Air
„ Glorietta Mall is a cluster of malls. Rising from Village, Magallanes Village, and San Miguel
Glorietta 4 is the Ascott Tower, a luxurious hotel-
hotel- Village.
apartment residence.

„ Along the periphery of Glorietta are three


department stores: SM Department Store
Makati,
Makati, Rustan's,
Rustan's, and the Landmark.

„ Across Glorietta mall is Greenbelt Mall is


one of the most sophisticated, modern,
and expensive malls in the country.

„ Other hotels in the vicinity of Ayala


Center are the Makati Shangri-
Shangri-la Hotel,
the Manila Peninsula, the Dusit Hotel
Nikkō
Nikkō, Manila Garden, the Hotel
Intercontinental Manila, and Renaissance
Makati City Hotel.

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Property Development and Transit Financing
(Philippine adaptation of MTR Model)
M a n ila M R T -3
P u b l i c S e c to r M o n th l y O b l i g a ti o n P r i v a te S e c to r S u p p l e m e n ta l M o n th l y N o n -
T r a n si t R e v e n u e
P riva t e S e c t o r In ve s t m e n t 8 ,888,8 88.00 A d ve rt is in g in c o m e 3,57 1,428.57
Repay m ent
M a in t e n a n c e F e e s 1 ,600,0 00.00 S t a t io n re t a il 14 2,857.14
S t a ffin g a n d A d m in s t ra t io n 45,0 00.00 M a ll d e ve lo p m e n t 15,089 ,285.7 1
P ro p e rt y In s u ra n c e 458,3 33.33 S u b to ta l A d d itio n a l 1 8 ,8 0 3 ,5 7 1 .4 3
A n n u a l In c o m e (U S $ )
D O T C o p e ra t in g e x p e n s e s 198,4 12.70
s u b to ta l m o n th ly 1 0 ,9 9 2 ,2 2 1 .3 3
expense U S $

P u b l i c S e c to r M o n th l y P u b l i c S e c to r M o n th l y S h a r e o f N o n -T r a n si t
T r a n si t a n d N o n -T r a n si t Re ve n ue
m o n t h ly p a s s e n g e r re ve n u e 3 ,226,1 90.48 m o n t h ly a d ve rt is in g in c o m e 1,78 5,714.29
c o lle c t io n
P ro p e rt y D e ve lo p m e n t R ig h t s 496,0 31.75 m o n t h ly s t a t io n re t a il (P h P ) 7 1,428.57
P ay m ent
s u b to ta l m o n th ly 3 ,7 2 2 ,2 2 2 .2 2 M a ll d e ve lo p m e n t (P h P ) 3,01 7,857.14
fa r e b o x r e v e n u e U S $
S u b to ta l A d d itio n a l 4 ,8 7 5 ,0 0 0 .0 0
P u b lic S e c to r S h a r e o f
M o n th ly N o n -tr a n s it
R e v e n u e (U S $ )

A c tu a l M o n th l y P u b l i c (7 , 2 6 9 , 9 9 9 . 1 1 ) P o te n ti a l M o n th l y P u b l i c (2 , 3 9 4 , 9 9 9 . 1 1 )
S e c to r S u b si d y S e c to r S u b si d y

a ve ra g e fa re 12.50
U S $ P h P e x c h a n g e ra t e 42.00

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Lessons in Linking Commercial Development and Transit
Development in Metro Manila

Private Sector Risk Public Sector Risk


(Market driven Transit Projects)

„ Completion and Financial Closure Risk „ Foreign Exchange Risk

„ Market Risk „ Fare Rate Setting Risk

„ Maintenance Risk „ ODA Financing for Right of Way


Acquisition when needed.

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POWER GENERATION
AND TRANSIT FINANCING
(Philippine adaptation of German Utility-Transit Model)

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German Model: Energy and Transit Corporate Linkages

„ Transportation, fiscal, economic, and physical


urban development planning are integrated at
the regional and metropolitan level.

„ Quantifiable benefits of track sharing (capital


costs and other savings) are compared and
balanced against the quantifiable safety risks of
joint rail operation to determine feasibility of new
rail services.

„ Transportation is used as one instrument in


guiding and controlling development, combined
with more stringent land use policies and
controls common in Europe.

„ All German and French cities hosting the study


mission had created a public works consortium
combining utilities (gas, water, transit, etc.).
Financial planning and transport planning are
therefore integrated across the full spectrum of
public services. Chislom, Gwen; International Transit Studies Program
Report of the Spring 2000 Mission Germany’s Track-
Sharing Experience: Mixed Use of Rail Corridors; Transit
Cooperative Research ProgramRESEARCH RESULTS
DIGEST March 2002—Number 47

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Early Links between Energy and Transit Development in the Philippines

„ 1882 La Compañia de tranvias de


Filipinas

„ 1903 Manila Electric Railroad and


Light Company

„ 1984 Light Rail Transit Authority


(Government Owned and Controlled
Corporation)

„ 1998 MRT-3 build as a BT project with


Metro Rail Transit Corporation with
Real Estate Development Rights

„ 2005 Initiatives by MRTC and DOTC


to integrate power generation with
transit operation. (natural disasters
and security not yet as a means to
mitigate GHG or means for cross
subsidies)

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Comparative Carbon Emission of Carbon credit for Use of Landfill Gas
MRT3 & Equivalent Number of Diesel for Power Generation
Buses „ Methane has a Global warming potential (GWP) 23
times that of CO2; when combusted, each molecule of
methane is converted to one molecule of CO2, thus
„ MRT consumes 113,000 kwh per day to transport reducing the global warming effect by 96%. Methane
can also be processed using an anaerobic digester
450,000 passengers a day. which generates electricity or heat.

„ MRT3 consumes 2.4 million Kwh per month with the „ 500 MT a day capcity MSW plant can produce landfill
resulting carbon emission of 15,000 tons a month gas equivalent to 7.9 million cum of landfill gas
annually
„ Diesel fuel buses would need 4,980 liters per day to „ 7.9 million cum of landfill gas will allow you to operate a
carry the equivalent number of 450,000 passengers a 2.5 MW landfill gas power plant
day.
Monthly additional income
„ Diesel fueled buses would need 149,585 liters per
month with the resulting carbon emission of 95,000 „ US$ 279,000 annual value of the landfill gas
tons a month.
„ US$ 118,000 annual carbon emission credit
„ There is approximately a US$ 995,000 a year gain from „ PhP 4.65 average generation cost or PhP 15.6million a
carbon emission reduction from the shift from diesel monthly expense
buses to MRT3. (US$ 7.50 per ton of CO2)
„ PhP 3.25 average generation cost (landfill gas) or PhP
11.0 million monthly expense or result in a PhP 4.0
million monthly savings.

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Policy Options in the


Development of Financially Viable Transit Systems

Financial Development and Operation Depends on the policy considerations:

„ transit development is a balance between urban policy and urban demand

„ transit systems should be at least market driven meaning public transportation


usage is high and there is tangible and intangible sources of revenue for the public
sector. (demand should not be overestimated to justify public or public-private
partnership development)

„ transit systems development should be tied to maximizing non-transit


revenues from commercial development or utility systems to ensure financial liquidity
of the transit system. (additional source of revenue is ROW for Fiber Optic or Power transmission
transmission lines)

„ there should be a balance between between public sector fiscal discipline and
private sector investment in the development transit system. transit systems should
not be viewed as political prestige boosting projects.

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The End

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