Correlation and Regression of 2013 National Crime Statistics

on Physical Injury & Violation of Special Laws

INTRODUCTION:
The word correlation is used in everyday life to denote some form of association. We
might say that we have noticed a correlation between foggy days and attacks of wheeziness.
However, in statistical terms we use correlation to denote association between two quantitative
variables. We also assume that the association is linear, that one variable increases or decreases a
fixed amount for a unit increase or decrease in the other. The other technique that is often used in
these circumstances is regression, which involves estimating the best straight line to summarise
the association.
We chose the topic of National Crime since it is one of our focus as Criminology
students, and by observing its data, we can see an overview of what we are going to face in the
future. The topic of Physical Injury and Violation of Special Laws are picked as references for
our problem set since according to Philippines 2019 Crime & Safety Report, these are the two of
the most committed moderate risk crimes in the Philippines. We are presenting the 2013 report
since this is the available data we can search which is uploaded in the government online data
base.

DATA:

2013 National Crime Statistics on Physical Injury & Violation of Special Laws
Index crime Nonindex
Provinc Against Person Crime Violation
Source Physical of Special Laws x2 y2 xy
e
Injury (x) (y)
1 PNP Blotter 11982 5891 143568324 34703881 70585962
1 Brgy Blotter 3226 215 10407076 46225 693590
1 OLEA 260 37 67600 1369 9620
2 PNP Blotter 4288 1999 18386944 3996001 8571712
2 Brgy Blotter 1243 167 1545049 27889 207581
2 OLEA 107 108 11449 11664 11556
3 PNP Blotter 14934 9444 223024356 89189136 141036696
3 Brgy Blotter 8954 1802 80174116 3247204 16135108
3 OLEA 10 26 100 676 260
4A PNP Blotter 7838 10025 61434244 100500625 78575950
4A Brgy Blotter 5824 1197 33918976 1432809 6971328
4A OLEA 26 261 676 68121 6786
4B PNP Blotter 5018 3906 25180324 15256836 19600308
4B Brgy Blotter 1817 283 3301489 80089 514211
 4B OLEA 38 390 1444 152100 14820
5 PNP Blotter 11997 10192 143928009 103876864 122273424
5 Brgy Blotter 2600 760 6760000 577600 1976000
5 OLEA 22 197 484 38809 4334
6 PNP Blotter 21409 15064 458345281 226924096 322505176
6 Brgy Blotter 18031 1029 325116961 1058841 18553899
6 OLEA 109 687 11881 471969 74883
7 PNP Blotter 15245 13533 232410025 183142089 206310585
7 Brgy Blotter 9016 2267 81288256 5139289 20439272
7 OLEA 59 1267 3481 1605289 74753
8 PNP Blotter 5286 2550 27941796 6502500 13479300
8 Brgy Blotter 3691 1296 13623481 1679616 4783536
8 OLEA 858 780 736164 608400 669240
9 PNP Blotter 7420 6991 55056400 48874081 51873220
9 Brgy Blotter 5884 955 34621456 912025 5619220
9 OLEA 194 390 37636 152100 75660
10 PNP Blotter 11258 12407 126742564 153933649 139678006
10 Brgy Blotter 0 0 0 0 0
10 OLEA 0 149 0 22201 0
11 PNP Blotter 10788 15618 116380944 243921924 168486984
11 Brgy Blotter 5214 1050 27185796 1102500 5474700
11 OLEA 20 680 400 462400 13600
12 PNP Blotter 10871 8152 118178641 66455104 88620392
12 Brgy Blotter 1531 664 2343961 440896 1016584
12 OLEA 273 652 74529 425104 177996
13 PNP Blotter 2396 4188 5740816 17539344 10034448
13 Brgy Blotter 1563 189 2442969 35721 295407
13 OLEA 151 269 22801 72361 40619
ARMM PNP Blotter 1575 722 2480625 521284 1137150
ARMM Brgy Blotter 39 16 1521 256 624
ARMM OLEA 0 0 0 0 0
COR PNP Blotter 4819 2880 23222761 8294400 13878720
COR Brgy Blotter 738 80 544644 6400 59040
COR OLEA 20 95 400 9025 1900
NCR PNP Blotter 10603 16695 112423609 278723025 177017085
NCR Brgy Blotter 22508 7913 506610064 62615569 178105804
NCR OLEA 36 27 1296 729 972
302530181 166486008
n=51 251789 166155 1895688021
9 5
Σx Σy Σx2 Σy2 Σxy
SCATTER PLOT DIAGRAM:

2013 National Crime Statistics on

Physical Injury & Violation of Special Laws
18000

16000
Nonindex Crime Violation of Special Laws (y)

14000
f(x) = 0.6 x + 278.96
R² = 0.58
12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Index crime Against Person Physical Injury (x)

PEARSON'S SAMPLE CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, R

r= n(∑xy) - (∑x) (∑y)

√[n∑x
2
-(∑x)2][n∑y2 - (∑y)2]

r= 0.759952733

r2= 0.577528157
REGRESSION LINE EQUATION

y=ax+
Slope b

a= (ΣX)(Σy) - n(Σxy)
(ΣX)2 - n(ΣX2)

a= 0.603393809  

b= (ΣX)(Σxy) - (Σy)(Σx2)
(ΣX)2 - n(ΣX2)

b= 278.9622795  

y= 0.6034x + 278.963

ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION:

The correlation coefficient 0.76 indicates a high strength positive correlation between
Physical Injury and Violation of Special Laws. And as the r-value and the scatter plot diagram
suggest, the value of Index Crime Against Person Physical Injury increases, the value of
Nonindex Crime Violation of Special Law also increases.
SOURCES OF DATA/REFERENCES
Bland JM, Altman DG. Statistical methods for assessing agreement between two methods of
clinical measurement. Lancet 1986; i:307-10.
Armitage P, Berry G. In: Statistical Methods in Medical Research , 3rd edn. Oxford: Blackwell
Scientific Publications, 1994:312-41.
https://www.osac.gov/Country/Philippines/Content/Detail/Report/d3be3560-6b42-4c0d-a621-
15f4aea87572
https://data.gov.ph/?q=dataset/national-crime-statistics/resource/163f8cdb-8b8d-4d6e-a025-
90d8e46d8390#{}
s