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INTELLIGENCE IN FOCUS
17 AuGust 2020 1A-45842-20

PUBLIC SAFETY & SECURITY

(U) Physical Threats to the 2020 Election Season

(u/Fouo) Weassess ideologically-motivatedviolent extremists and other violentactors could

quickly mobilize to threaten or engagein violence against election or campaign-relatedtargets
in responseto perceivedpartisan andpolicy-basedgrievances." While we currently lack
credible threat reporting of attack plotting during the 2020 election season, we assess that
open-air, publicly accessible parts of physical election infrastructure, such as
campaign-associated massgatherings, polling places, and voterregistration events, would be
the mostlikely flashpoints for potential violence.
¢ (u) Through early 2020, multiple assaults have occurredatplaceslike polling stations
andrallies. In one instance, an individualdrovehis vehicle into a voterregistration tent,
according to US news media reports. Violentactors targeted political party offices with
arsonattacks in Wyoming on 6 September2018 and North Carolina on
15 October 2016.

¢ (U) Since 2016, violentactors have exploited peaceful campaign rallies and protests to
clash with individuals holding opposingpolitical views, accordingto local and national
US news mediareports. For example, at an unofficial rally in 2017, physical altercations
between otherwise lawful protesters and counter-protestersresulted in several arrests
and atleast 11 people injured.

(u/FOuO) Weassess individuals harboring violent extremist ideologies andotherviolent actors

likely will continue to threatenor target candidates, public figures, and members of the general
public whotheseactors perceive as opposing their worldview, whichis consistent with past
attackplotting andhistoricaldrivers for violent activity. We continueto assesslone offender
white supremacist extremists and other lone offender domestic terrorist actors with
personalized ideologies, including those based on grievancesagainsta target’s perceived or
actualpoliticalaffiliation, policies, or worldview, posethe greatestthreatoflethal violence.

¢ (U/FOUO) Twoseparate domestic terrorists with partisan-based grievances have targeted

politicians, public figures, and a national media organization based ontheir perceived or
actualpoliticalaffiliations since 2017, according to a DOJpressrelease and press
reporting.

* (u/Fouo)For the purposesof this paper,the term violentactors refers to groupsor individuals whofacilitate or
engagein unlawfulacts of violence with the intentto cause serious bodily harm and/or damagetocritical
infrastructure.
(U) Prepared by the Counterterrorism Mission Center. Coordinated within the DHSIntelligence Enterprise (CISA, CWMD,I&A, ICE, USCG) and with NCTC.
For questions, contact DHS-SPS-RFI@hq.dhs.gov.

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(u) There havebeenotherfailed assassination attemptsagainstelected officials and

political candidates that have not been linkedto specific domestic violent extremist
ideologies, including against a State-level candidateata local fair in California in 2018
andagainst then-Presidential candidate Trumpat a campaign rally in 2016, according to
local and national US newsreports.

(u/Fouo) Domestic terrorists with a range of policy-based grievances have engaged in

acts of property damageor sabotage againstcritical infrastructure on several occasions
since 2016. Immigration-related grievances contributed to motivations of three separate
white supremacist extremist shootings since 2018, resulting in 35 total fatalities. Some
social mediausers have issuedonlinethreats of violence in reaction to discussions about
changesin firearm legislation that are perceived to equate to gun confiscation or other
restrictions of Second Amendmentrights, according to DHS open source reporting.

(u/FOUO) While manyideologically-based grievances predate current events and have spanned
multiple election seasons, we assess violence related to governmentefforts to mitigate the
COVID-19 pandemic and amidst otherwise ongoing lawful protests havelikely exacerbated the
typical election-seasonthreat environment.Violentactors capitalizing on current events have
mostfrequently engaged in non-lethal violence or attempted to destroy critical infrastructure,
though somehaveattemptedor threatened lethal violence. Some social media users, consistent
with previousyears, have encouragedothers to conductviolentactivities.

(U/FOUO) Since early May 2020, multiple individuals have utilized COVID-19 restrictions
to justify attacksor threats of lethal violence targetingcritical infrastructure, essential
business personnel, and law enforcement, according to DHS and mediareporting. A
range of violent extremists have usedonline platforms and social media to capitalize on
concerns surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic by encouraging violence against
minorities and promoting violence against the governmentorcritical infrastructure,
according to DHS open source reporting. Somesocial media users have encouraged
spreading COVID-19 within minority communities and threatenedto recruit COVID-19
positive individuals for recentpoliticalrallies in a likely attemptto spread the virus
outsideof the event.

(u/FOUO) Since May 2020, violent actors have useda rangeoftactics to target law
enforcement, individuals engaging in constitutionally-protected activity, and public and
private property, and somesocial media users have encouragedothers to engage in
violentactivities, according to DHSfield reporting, a criminal complaint, and press
reporting. Press reportingindicates similar tactics were used duringviolent clashes
amidst First Amendment-protected events leading up to andsince the 2016 election.

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Source, Reference, and Dissemination Information

Source Summary (u/rouo) We havelowconfidence in our assessmentthat ideologically-motivated

Statement violent extremists and other violent actors could quickly mobilize to threaten or engage
in violence against election or campaign-relatedtargets in response to perceived
partisan and policy-based grievances. We base our assessment predominantly on news
media reports of past incidents of violence since the 2016 election season and recent
violent incidents during the 2020 primary season. Reporting on credible threats to
election-related targets would increase our confidence in our assessment.

(u//rouo) Wehave medium confidence in our assessmentregarding historical targets

anddrivers for ideologically-motivated violent extremists. Our assessment is based on
news mediareports, DOJpress releases, and DHSopensource reporting highlighting
the repeatedinterest of violent extremists to threaten or engagein violence in response
to partisan or policy-based grievances.

(u//rouo) Wehave medium confidence in our assessmentregarding the impact of

governmentefforts to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemicandincidentsof violence
amidst otherwise ongoing lawful protests to the election-season threat environment.
Webase our assessmentona criminal complaint, DHS field and open sourcereporting,
andpressreporting. Specific and credible election-related threats, particularly those
exploiting existing lawful protests, would increase our confidence in this assessment.

Definitions (u/rouo) Domestic Terrorism/Terrorist: Any act of unlawfulviolencethatis

dangerousto humanlife or potentially destructiveofcritical infrastructure or key
resources committed by a grouporindividual based and operating entirely within the
UnitedStatesorits territories withoutdirection or inspiration from a foreign terrorist
group.Thisactis a violation of the criminal lawsof the UnitedStates or of anystate or
other subdivision of the United States and appearsto be intendedto intimidate or
coercea civilian population,to influence the policy of a governmentby intimidation or
coercion,or to affect the conduct of a governmentby mass destruction, assassination, or
kidnapping. A domesticterrorist differs from a homegrownviolent extremist in that
the formeris not inspired by and doesnottake direction from a foreign terrorist group
orother foreign power.
(u/rouo) Lone Offender: An individual motivated by oneor more violent extremist
ideologies who, operating alone, supports or engagesin actsof unlawfulviolencein
furtheranceof that ideology or ideologies that mayinvolveinfluence from a larger
terrorist organizationor a foreign actor.

(u//rouo) White Supremacist Extremist: Groups orindividuals whofacilitate or engage

in acts of unlawful violence directed at the federal government, ethnic minorities, or
Jewish persons in supportof their belief that Caucasiansareintellectually and morally
superiorto otherracesandtheir perception that the governmentis controlled by Jewish
persons.
Reporting Suspicious (U) Toreport suspiciousactivity, law enforcement, Fire-EMS,private security
Activity personnel, and emergency managers should follow established protocols; all other
personnelshouldcall 911 or contact local law enforcement. Suspiciousactivity
reports (SARs) will be forwardedto the appropriate fusion center and FBIJoint
Terrorism Task Forcefor further action. For more information on the Nationwide SAR
Initiative, visit http: / /nsi.ncirc.gov/resources.aspx.

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Warning Notices & (u) FOUO: This documentcontains UNCLASSIFIED/ /FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Handling Caveats (U//FOUO)information that may be exemptfrom public release under the Freedom of
Information Act (5 U.S.C. 552). It is to be controlled, stored, handled, transmitted,
distributed, and disposedof in accordance with DHS policyrelating to FOUO
information and is notto be released to the public, the media, or other personnel who
donot havea valid need to know withoutprior approvalof an authorized DHSofficial.
State andlocal homelandsecurity officials may share this documentwith critical
infrastructure andkey resource personnelor private sector security officials without
further approval from DHS.
(u) USPER:All USpersoninformation has been minimized. Should you require US
personinformation on weekendsor after normal weekday hours duringexigent and
time sensitive circumstances, contact the Current and Emerging Threat WatchOffice at
202-447-3688, CETC.OSCO@HQ.DHS.GOV. Forall other inquiries, please contact the
HomelandSecurity Single Pointof Service, Requestfor Information Office at DHS-SPS-
RFI@hq.dhs.gov, DHS-SPS-RFI@dhs.sgov.gov, DHS-SPS-RFI@dhs.ic.gov.

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Product Title: (U) Physical Threats to the 2020 Election Season
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Product Serial Number: 1A-45842-20 REV: 01 August 2017