Assignment

On
COVID-19 and its Impacts on HR Practices

Course Title: Strategic HRM

Course Code: HRM-612

Submitted to:
Farhad Hossain
Senior Lecturer
Department of Business Administration
Leading University, Sylhet

Submitted by:
Gulam Haidar Siddique
Student ID: 2011017004
Semester: 4th, Section: B
Program: MBA
Department of Business Administration
Leading University, Sylhet

Date of Submission: 19th September 2020

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 Acknowledgement

All praise to Allah, the Almighty Allah and the merciful, without his blessing and endorsement
this report would not have been accomplished. The successful completion of this assignment
might never be possible in time without the help some person whose inspiration and suggestion
made it happen.

First of all, I want to thank our honorable course teacher Farhad Hossain, Senior Lecturer,
Department of Business Administration, Leading University, Sylhet, for helping us completing
our assignment on “COVID-19 and its Impacts on HR Practices”.

We would also like to thank our colleague who helped us by providing informative instructions.
We were closely attached with them during our assignment tenure.

Finally, we thank to our parents and friends who keep on this long process with ours, always
offer support. At last, we also express our sincere gratitude to all those who participated to
prepare our assignment.

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Introduction:
The Corona Virus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a new strain of
Corona Virus. This new virus and disease were unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan,
China, in December 2019. There is no specific treatment for disease caused by a novel Corona
Virus. However, many of the symptoms can be treated and therefore treatment based on the
patient's clinical condition. The virus can cause a range of symptoms, ranging from mild illness
to pneumonia. Symptoms of the disease are fever, cough, sore throat and headaches. In severe
cases difficulty in breathing and deaths can occur. They found that for people with mild
disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover
within three to six weeks. There is some evidence that COVID-19 infection may lead to
intestinal infection and be present in faces. However, to date only one study has cultured the
COVID-19 virus from a single stool specimen. There have been no reports of faucal−oral
transmission of the COVID-19 virus to date. It is highly unlikely that people can contract
COVID-19 from food or food packaging. COVID-19 is a respiratory illness and the primary
transmission route is through person-to- person contact and through direct contact with
respiratory droplets generated when an infected person coughs or sneezes. There is no evidence
to date of viruses that cause respiratory illnesses being transmitted via food or food packaging.

The virus that causes COVID-19 infects people of all ages. However, evidence to date suggests
that two groups of people are at a higher risk of getting severe COVID-19 disease. These are
older people (that is people over 60 years old); and those with underlying medical conditions
(such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer). The risk of
severe disease gradually increases with age starting from around 40 years. It's important that
adults in this age range protect themselves and in turn protect others that may be more
vulnerable. WHO has issued advice for these two groups and for community support to ensure
that they are protected from COVID-19 without being isolated, stigmatized, left in a position
of increased vulnerability or unable to access basic provisions and social care.

What is COVID-19?
A new Corona Virus disease, now known as COVID-19, was first identified in Wuhan, People’s
Republic of China (PRC), in early January 2020. From the information known at this point,
several facts are pertinent. First, it belongs to the same family of Corona Virus that caused the
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and the Middle East Respiratory
Syndrome (MERS) outbreak in 2012. Second, the mortality rate (number of deaths relative to
number of cases), which is as yet imprecisely estimated, is probably in the range of 1%–3.4%—
significantly lower than 10% for SARS and 34% for MERS the substantially higher than the
mortality rate for seasonal flu, which is less than 0.1%.2 Third, even though it emerged from
animal hosts, it now spreads through human-to-human contact.

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The infection rate of COVID-19 appears to be higher than that for the seasonal flu and MERS,
with the range of possible estimates encompassing the infection rates of SARS and Ebola (Table
1, second column). The estimated impact on individual developing Asian economies and on
sectors within these economies—is provided in this brief, including a hypothetical worst-case
scenario for a given economy that experiences a significant outbreak of its own. It needs this
precision and clarity to allow you to make adequate responses. It is essential, and will continue to
be, throughout this epidemic, that you identify, assess and address the new risks it is generating –
so that you can shape prompt and relevant policies.

This is a health crisis, first and foremost. It is vital, and urgent, to ensure the health and safety of
your workers, especially those in the health-care sector, client-facing responsibility, or with
significant workplace interaction. All workers, without discrimination, should have access to
health care and protective material, and their risk of exposure should be reduced. Businesses
should also be assessing the impacts on workers in their supply chains and using their leverage to
safeguard the rights of those who work for their suppliers. This is a matter of the most basic self-
interest and core to upholding human rights. In this context, special attention needs to be paid to
day laborers, non-contract workers, temporary employees, and those without social protection
coverage who work in your supply chains. Many of them are women or from vulnerable groups,
and your immediate assistance and support, including under lockdown measures, can be a life-
line. Many workers and small business-owners will need immediate support to help them protect
livelihoods. Let me cite two examples. The clothing giant H&M has assured its manufacturing
suppliers that it will not cancel or seek to re-negotiate existing orders and will take delivery of
goods in production. Unilever has committed to helping its most vulnerable small and medium-
sized suppliers by extending cash loans. We need more of this kind of creative thinking as we
continue working, throughout this crisis, to protect jobs; protect health; and help people cope
with adversity, by investing in community-led resilience and response and assisting vital social
protection measures.

Impact of COVID-19 in HR Practices

COVID-19 presents an unprecedented crisis for states, requiring swift action on many issues,
including the process for licensing essential workers. Temporary suspension of occupational
licensing laws in emergency situations is a common approach states take to help manage short-
term crises. States have experience in adopting emergency licensing processes, most often in
response to natural disasters and their aftermath. Typically, states will lift licensing restrictions
on aid workers, including those providing health care, infrastructure and other services critical to
disaster recovery. To respond to COVID-19, states are also exploring the temporary suspension
of licensure requirements for volunteers and aid workers. NCSL's Occupational Licensing
During Public Emergencies webpage for more details.

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Paid Sick Leave
COVID-19 is causing very high numbers of workers to take sick leave. Many workers are
not paid when they get sick. Currently, 12 states and Washington D.C. require employers to
provide paid sick leave benefits. NCSL's Paid Sick Leave webpage provides details on each
state's program. The sudden emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic is dealing a severe blow to
state economies, businesses and workers. First and foremost, states are strengthening their health
care capacity in the event that demand for medical services surge. Ensuring there are enough
licensed health care professionals is a key component in this preparation. States are also
restricting access to in-dining restaurants, theaters, concert halls, some retail stores and other
non-essential businesses where large groups of people risk coming into close contact with one
another. Additionally, public health officials and experts have warned Americans to stay home as
much as possible and avoid doing anything that requires close contact with others. Many other
businesses have voluntarily closed to protect their employees and the public as a whole. Perhaps
the most visible closure has been the nearly universal shutdown of the professional sports
industry. Those exposed to the virus are being advised to self-quarantine for at least 14 days
presenting financial challenges for workers without paid sick leave. These unprecedented
challenges are having economic ripple effects across the country as thousands of Americans
unexpectedly find themselves out of work with the potential for significant increases in
unemployment. States are taking action to address the employment concerns facing Americans
and to protect those who are no longer able to work. Some immediate issues on the minds of
policymakers include expanding paid leave for workers, preparing state unemployment insurance
benefit programs for surges in demand and helping businesses transition to full-time teleporting.
Federal legislation addressing unemployment insurance benefits, paid leave and economic
stimulus is currently making its way through Congress. NCSL is watching this legislation closely
and advocating for state legislatures around the country. Updates on federal action and its impact
on states will be made as they happen. See NCSL's blog on the new Families First Corona virus
Response Act for details on the new paid sick leave mandate and changes made to the federal
unemployment benefits law.

Unemployment Insurance Benefits

The Federal-State Unemployment Insurance Program provides temporary unemployment
benefits to eligible unemployed workers. As states work to slow the spread of COVID-19,
thousands of workers are finding themselves unemployed leading to a surge in applications for
unemployment benefits. States are responding to this employment crisis including expediting the
application process for unemployment insurance benefits and expanding eligibility to those
under quarantine. NCSL's Unemployment Benefits webpage provides specific examples of the
actions states are taking.

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Defining Essential Businesses and Workers
While the federal government has recommended that all Americans stay home to slow the spread
of COVID-19, it is up to states and local governments to enact these recommendations. So far,
41 states have issued stay-at-home orders forcing the closure of all non-essential business
properties. What constitutes an "essential" business is complex and varies from state to state.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has guidance for states on critical infrasture workers
covering areas like healthcare services, public utilies, food services, public transportation and
financial services. The federal guidance serves as a basic framework for most state policies.
From there, states tailor their definition of essential workers to meet their own unique needs as
well as their mechanisms for enforcing the orders. These definitions often include numerous
exemptions and can change from day-to-day. The National Governor's Association has compiled
a thorough breakdown of how each state is defining essential workers.

Teleporting
The COVID-19 outbreak is rapidly changing the workplace. As the race to containment
continues, millions of Americans are moving their work spaces to their homes as
states ask employers to offer flexible work arrangements, such as teleporting, and develop plans
to ensure continuity in government. NCSL's COVID-19: Teleporting webpage for more specific
and state examples.

The employers qualify under the paid sick leave provisions in the Families First Corona
virus Response Act
FFCRA requires covered employers to provide eligible employees up to two weeks of paid sick
leave at full pay, up to a specified cap, when the employee is unable to work because the
employee is subject to a federal, state or local quarantine or isolation order related to COVID-19.
The act also provides up to two weeks of paid sick leave at partial pay, up to a specified cap,
when an employee is unable to work because of a need to care for an individual subject to a
federal, state or local quarantine order related to COVID-19. The FFCRA covers private
employers with fewer than 500 employees and certain public employers. Small employers with
fewer than 50 employees may qualify for an exemption from the requirement to provide paid
leave due to school, place of care, or childcare provider closings or unavailability, if the lease
payments would jeopardize the viability of their business as a going concern.

The states planning to pay for reimbursements to businesses for paid sick leave and FMLA
They are not. State-paid sick leave laws are simply mandates for employers to provide these
benefits to employees. Businesses are not reimbursed for providing paid sick leave. FFCRA will
reimburse private employers that have fewer than 500 employees with tax credits for the cost of
providing employees with paid leave taken related to COVID-19.

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Most state paid family and medical leave/temporary disability insurance programs are entirely
employer funded. The states that do include an employer-funded component do not reimburse
employers for their contributions.

The new unemployment insurance policies and guidance apply to seasonal, gig, and
undocumented workers
The CARES Act expands unemployment insurance from three to four months, and provides
temporary unemployment compensation of $600 per week, which is in addition to and the same
time as regular state and federal UI benefits. The benefits are extended to part-time, self-
employed and gig economy workers. The Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) provides
emergency UI to employees who do not qualify for the regular state UI. Up to 39 weeks of PUA
is available immediately to workers who have lost work due to COVID-19. Workers who can
timework or are receiving paid sick leave are not eligible for PUA.

I also encourage you to act in the longer term to uphold economic, social, civil and political
rights in the broader societies in which you operate and distribute products. Investors are already
asking what CEOs are doing to protect their wider ecosystems of staff, customers and suppliers.
There is a growing view that responsible businesses may be better placed to weather the
immediate health crisis, as well as the economic downturn ahead.

Demonstrating respect for human rights, especially in times of uncertainty and economic
hardship, is a strong reflection of a business' core values. Humane, clear-sighted and impactful
measures that protect employees and communities, and help them weather challenges, will pay
long-term dividends in business reputations.

We cannot afford to leave anyone behind. If we have learned anything from COVID-19, it is that
nobody, and no entity, is an isolated unit. We are bound together – and we benefit from each
other.

I want also to emphasize that this response to the pandemic must be global. We also cannot
afford to leave any country behind. If developing countries, with the least capacity to contain
the pandemic, become repositories for the virus, driving new waves of contagion that would be a
human rights disaster and an economic disaster.

One day, the streets, skies and shipping lanes will fill again, but the world will be changed. How
businesses respond to the crisis will shape their own futures as functioning entities, and it will
contribute to shaping the future of millions of people – your direct employees, and many others.
Preventing, mitigating and addressing the damage being done to human rights will be key to
maintaining trust – with clients and consumers, your employees, your shareholders and your
communities. It will be key to building a world of greater resilience.

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This course is based on methodologies, tools, and approaches developed by the ILO and its
partners to forecast jobs creation and evaluate outcomes.

The ILO approach to employment impact assessment, including impacts of pandemics like
COVID-19
 Employment indicators and their use according to the theory of change
 Ex-ante versus ex-post impact analysis : a wide array of methods
 Evidence uptake in policy formulation

These findings mirror those from McKinsey’s previous research on jobs at risk in Europe and in
the United States, with one or two differences. Compared with other countries in Europe, a
significantly larger share of retail in the United Kingdom—around 20 percent of nonfuel sales—
was already conducted online prior to the COVID-19 lockdowns, and the crisis has accelerated
this trend.8 On balance, therefore, a slightly smaller share of UK workers in retail and wholesale
are at risk, despite this being a large sector in absolute terms. A major difference compared with
the United States is the position of the healthcare and social-assistance sector, which has the
third-largest pool of at-risk jobs in the United States. Our analysis of data for Europe and the
United Kingdom suggests a more modest impact on jobs in that sector. In geography the stark
differences among specific sectors reflect three factors that combine to make some sectors more
prone to furloughs and job losses. Physical proximity to other workers or members of the public
in certain jobs such as bartenders or amusement-park attendants—makes them unsafe to
continue. Indeed, these are the sectors that are in lockdown in order to minimize the spread of the
virus. In addition, it is not possible, in practice, to work remotely in roughly 60 percent of
occupations, because the place of work is fixed (such as for a sales assistant) or requires
specialist equipment (such as for a laboratory technician or bus driver). Even for occupations that
could be performed remotely in theory, not all employers are able to supply their workers with
the required IT tools. We estimate that only around 20 percent of the working-age population (or
40 percent of those at work and not furloughed) are currently working remotely. Even where
businesses continue to keep their doors open, some have experienced an abrupt decline in
customer demand and revenues. For them, continuing to keep people on their payroll may be
untenable. The McKinsey Consumer Sentiment Survey for the United Kingdom suggests that
most households are cutting down expenditure in all categories, with the exception of groceries
and at-home entertainment. This will affect many manufacturing sectors, such as cars, apparel,
furniture, and appliances, as well as service sectors, such as sports, entertainment, and travel.
Demand for some B2B services, such as building services and recruitment, is also down.

The most vulnerable workers are most at risk

Unfortunately, in the COVID-19 crisis, there is a strong correlation between the likelihood of a
worker being furloughed or laid off and them having previously been on a low income. This is
already apparent from the sector analysis described earlier.

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The median gross hourly pay in hospitality and food-service activities in 2019 was around £8.60;
in information and communication, it was £19.20. More broadly, the weighted average median
pay in the five hardest-hit sectors is around £10.60 per hour; for the five least affected sectors, it
is around £14.60—or nearly 40 percent higher. But there are even sharper differences
between occupations. The proportion of jobs at risk in elementary occupations—which employed
3.3 million people in 2019 and include jobs such as cleaners, kitchen assistants, waiters, and bar
staff are around 44 percent, In contrast, the same number for professional occupations—such as
computer programmers, project managers, and accountants—is around 5 percent. The latter
category is also much more highly remunerated, attracting average pay around 2.4 times that of
elementary occupations. The occupational picture in the United Kingdom is similar to our
findings for Europe as a whole, where the largest job families at risk are those in customer
service, sales, and food services.

Exhibit 3 illustrates the concentration of at-risk jobs in low-paid occupations. In the lowest wage
bracket where median gross hourly pay is less than £10—around 43 percent of jobs are classified
as vulnerable. This is also the largest vulnerable category in absolute terms, with a total of 3.6
million people both vulnerable and in the lowest pay band. Overall, nearly half of the jobs at risk
were in occupations that paid less than £10 per hour in 2019, in contrast with the United
Kingdom’s median pay of £13.30 per hour in 2019. This, too, is similar to findings in other
geographies. For example, in the United States, the largest absolute number of vulnerable jobs is
in the lowest pay band. Finally, our analysis sheds light on the vulnerability of
different demographic groups in the workforce. We find that, with the exception of black, Asian,
and minority ethnic (BAME) workers, jobs at risk are disproportionately concentrated in groups
that might already be at a disadvantage (Exhibit 5). This is a marked difference to the United
States, where nonwhite workers have a significantly higher probability of being furloughed or
laid off because of COVID-19 physical-distancing measures. Another vulnerable group is part-
time workers, who only make up 24 percent of the United Kingdom’s workforce but account for
35 percent of jobs at risk. In terms of age, around 45 percent of the more vulnerable jobs are held
by younger people aged 35 years or less. Young women in particular score the highest on jobs at
risk of all age and gender groups, partly because of their high representation in jobs such as sales
and retail assistants, receptionists, cleaners, and waiters. Women are also six times as likely as
men to be lone parents, another demographic category that holds a disproportionate share of jobs
at risk.12 Women overall are no more vulnerable than men, but the patterns by sector and
occupation are highly varied. Interestingly, this is in line with previous research—in the context
of automation and the future of work—which found that the high-level averages hide a gendered
and polarized labor market.

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Lowest-income regions face the biggest challenges
The UK has long suffered from significant regional income disparities, and these might be made
worse by COVID-19-related furloughs and layoffs. Much will depend on how quickly
organizations can return to full operation once lockdown restrictions are lifted and the degree to
which any fiscal stimulus during and after the crisis can be effectively targeted to support the
most deprived people and places. In the short term, however, lower-income areas of the United
Kingdom appear most at risk.

Mitigating the employment impact of COVID-19

This is because the same phenomena observed prior in this article also operate at the geographic
level. As outlined in the Industrial Strategy Council’s report UK regional productivity
differences, an evidence review, socioeconomic factors across different regions of the United
Kingdom are highly correlated. This means that areas that have more highly educated people
also tend to have more productive firms, higher salaries and incomes, and higher employment
rates. They also tend to have a greater predominance of high-value-added sectors and a larger
share of well-paid occupations within those sectors.

As Exhibit 6 illustrates, this results in differences in the share of jobs that are at risk in each
region. While the proportions of key workers are broadly similar in each area, there are other
marked sectoral and occupational differences. The share of jobs at risk in the 20 lowest-income
subregions such as Blackpool, Bridgend, and Stoke-on-Trent—ranges from 23 to 29 percent,
while the range for the 20 highest-income regions is 18 to 25 percent. (As mentioned previously,
the national average is 24 percent for the United Kingdom as a whole.) While the high-level
sector mix across regions is fairly similar, occupational differences are significant.

Government and businesses need to prioritize helping the vulnerable

The dual imperative of our time, for both government and businesses, is safeguarding
lives and livelihoods. For government, the short-term actions have rightly been focused on
avoiding permanent job losses and minimizing failures among otherwise viable businesses.
These cash injections will help reduce the amount of structural damage in the economy during
the lockdowns, which have been necessary for now to control the spread of the virus.
Businesses’ main effort has been to keep both employees and customers safe while, of course,
doing their best to ensure the continuity of customer relationships and operations. As we move
into the next phase of the crisis, it is important that both public- and private-sector leaders pay
heed to the potentially rapid divergence in the fortunes of different groups of people. For the
software engineer living in Edinburgh and enjoying increased customer demand as businesses
and households shift to digital channels, the situation could be net positive: working from their
comfortable home, with high-speed broadband, they might be seeing more of their immediate
family and spending less time commuting.

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At the same time, large numbers of people are unable to earn a living; either at their normal
places of work or remotely, and are likely to be experiencing heightened anxiety about their
incomes and jobs. For the UK government, three priorities—beyond managing the health
emergency—stand out. First, as it gains more information about furloughs and job losses across
the nation, the government needs to ensure that the mechanisms in place channel support to the
most vulnerable segments of the population. Second, it needs to reprioritize and significantly
bolster its “leveling up” agenda and consider all the levers available perhaps as part of future
fiscal stimulus—to build economic dynamism in left-behind areas. Third, to get people back to
productive work as soon as possible, retraining and reskilling of unemployed people needs to be
scaled up. Adult training has historically been a weakness, which the COVID-19 crisis will
throw into sharp relief. Even if employment were to return to previous levels in the next year or
two, the shape of the economy and labor market would have shifted significantly. Investing now
to up skill workers and to prepare them for the broader trends driven by automation and
digitization will produce high returns on investment in both the short and longer terms.

Covid-19 and its Impact on Bangladesh Economy

The Covid-19 pandemic has thus far spread to 208 countries and regions of the world,
significantly affecting the global economy. Since the virus has been growing exponentially, even
the developed countries have been unable to contain its spread. As a result, people are dying in
the affected areas at an alarming rate. We can’t even think how deadly the highly contagious
disease will turn if it spreads from a moderate to a strong category in India or Bangladesh.

Bangladesh is the most densely populated country in the world, however, to our concern; the
healthcare facilities in the country are too limited to serve its 160 million-plus population. If we
look at the sector-wise resource distribution of operating and development budget for the fiscal
year 2019-20, we would see the health sector has received merely 4.9% of the total allocation.
Meanwhile, the education and technology sector has received 15.2% allocation which is more
than 3 times higher than the health sector allocation. Due to poor investment in healthcare
infrastructure nationwide and scarcity of medical equipment i.e. testing kits, and doctors to
combat Covid-19, the government is passing a very hard time. The government should act
promptly to allocate further resources to healthcare infrastructure development to tackle this
pandemic. Till now, there is no vaccination for this virus. Thus isolation and lockdown are the
only means to stop the spread of this deadly virus.

Bangladesh outlook
The unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic has caused disruptions to global trade, business, and
education. Bangladesh is equally affected by this contagion. The economic consequences of the
Covid-19 outbreak are tough to handle as the entire of the global supply chain has been
interrupted due to worldwide transportation shutdown.

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Till now, the Bangladesh readymade garments (RMG) industry has received work order
cancellations of nearly $3 billion.

Around 2 million workers in the industries will be affected by this. Around 4 million people are
directly engaged with the RMG sector e.g. backward linkage industries, accessories and
packaging factories and transportation sector.

The import and export-oriented companies are also at risk. The foreign remittance will come
down and thus it will hit the foreign reserves of the country.

Bangladesh will fall into a really difficult situation if the country remains locked down for a
longer period. Here, a huge number of people live from hand to mouth. Consistent high growth
has been unable to create sufficient jobs in the economy. Due to inequality of income and asset
distribution, the advantages of higher GDP growth is not evident in society.

Recently, garment workers coming back to Dhaka amid the government-imposed shutdown and
the risk of getting infected only revealed that due to disparity in wealth distribution these people
are unable to stay at homes without work for their survival, thus, they are concerned much more
about their job rather than Covid-19.

The higher growth and increased per capita income have benefitted a small group of rich people
much more than the much greater number of poor people. Now its the time for the government to
think about this crucial issue and chalk out a long-term plan to minimise the disparity between
the rich and the poor.

We all know the banking industry is in back gear due to mounting non-performing loans (NPLs).
If the RMG industry and its backward linkage industries fail, then the entire banking system will
collapse. Today, fifty-nine commercial banks and general insurance companies are heavily
relying on garments and related industries for their business.
The government has already declared a Tk5,000 crore incentive package to mitigate the losses in
the RMG sector. However, if the outbreak prolongs it will be difficult for the government to
handle the situation and the result of this will be catastrophic as more than 85 percent of the
countrys export earnings come through the RMG sector.

We could not diversify our export basket, thus creating a huge risk in our export portfolios. If we
look at our RMG rival Vietnams export portfolios, RMG has earned one-fifth of its total export
earnings. Their export basket is pooled with some other industries combination; thus they dont
need to rely on only one industry. For sustainable economic growth, Bangladesh should have
diversified its export basket o reduce the sole dependency on the RMG industry.

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Economic Challenges
Due to uncertainties over the invention of vaccination to prevent the fatal, it is fully
unpredictable to make a to-do list as lockdown or isolation is not the ultimate solution.
On a larger scale, we may have to face an economic slowdown in the short term while there
might be a recession in the long term.

On April 5, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina unveiled a Tk72,750 crore stimulus package,
including the previously declared Tk5,000 crore package, to address the economic impacts of the
corona virus outbreak. The amount is nearly 2.52 percent of the country’s GDP. The
government could take both fiscal and monetary measures to combat the novel corona virus. As
per the prime ministers bailout plan, fiscal actions included stimulus packages e.g. direct
financial support for the affected sectors, widening social safety net coverage for poor people,
food distribution at a lower price among the poor people, as well as increasing monetary supply.
The monetary actions would be lowering the repo rate and reduction of the Cash Reserve Ratio
(CRR) to increase the money supply to the economy.

Impact of HR on COVID-19
Being in the corona war, policymakers worldwide are engaged in damage-control of the
economic losses at the moment and preparing for confronting the upcoming economic
crisis. In addition, there are evidences and indications that financial and banking
industries around the globe might have to face remarkable instability in the forthcoming
months. Our government has already announced bail-out packages for the recovery.
Like, due to cancellation of nearly $3 billion worth of work-orders, Bangladesh RMG
industry got the attention quickly. Around 2 million workers in the industries may be
affected by this and on the other hand, around 4 million people are directly engaged with
the RMG sector e.g. backward linkage industries, accessories and packaging factories
and transportation sector. Now, it is high time for the government as well as business
enterprises to assess the situation and chalk out a long-term plan to control damage. It is
noteworthy to say that, we should not start blame-game now and ask for assistances from
the government only due to the limitations and scarcity of resources of different
agencies of government. But the prime role of the government should be clear any
unwanted obstacles and create opportunities among the economy by the way of sound
and clear directives like monetary & fiscal policies as well as tax structure to face the
catastrophic situation. The banking sector is the key player of the economic activities of
any countries. As a developing country-we need to be more watchful in terms of
planning to get rid out of the impact of COVID-19 outbreak. We are already suffering
heavily due to NPLs and unfortunately the outbreak may increase the level of NPLs in
coming days. The NPLs can be split up in two phases:

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1. Pre-COVID NPLs & post- COVID NPLs in view to stare & understand the fact more
judiciously. Therefore, a new sets of BB guidelines need to be initiated addressing the
facts. It is pivotal to focus on the early bail-out plans for probable collapse of large loans
is essential for sustainability as many backward linkage, SMEs and individuals are
directly and indirectly correlated with these Large Loan borrowers. Country's overall
economic eco-system is standing on it; we need to make sure that this should not
collapse. But it is also true that, it is the peak time for every bank and other non-banking
financial organization to assess and reassess their overall lending portfolios and
withdraw some of their unnecessary and unwanted portion wisely.

Although the financial market especially the banking sector is battered heavily due to
regulated cap of rate of interest of deposit and advance very before of this pandemic.
Many willful borrowers may resort to take undue advantage of this regulation and the
industry may face this in bigger scale amid the pandemic. A threshold may be initiated
to identify the genuine sufferers and pass a resolution for safeguarding them only.

But unfortunately if the situation prolongs, at worst, the central bank might consider
hefty package to increase money supply but this may have impact on inflation of the
country, and can also announce a stimulating fiscal policy considering universal basic
income (UBI) approach. But the task of distributing UBI to a large population is
dubious, even with the availability of mobile financial services. Therefore a core
operational task force may be formed under the direct supervision of the central bank.
Now, if we turn around our eyes to the industrial sector-which is also suffering from the
deadly contagious disease. As we all know that, export diversification is always a key
for sustainable growth in earning foreign currency but regrettably we are heavily relying
of RMG sector. This sector asserts that, 85 percent of the country's' export earnings
come through the RMG sector. We failed to diversify our export basket, thus creating a
huge risk in our export portfolios. The response against the outbreak and its impact on
the industrial sector is so far admirable, yet this pandemic also poses an economic and
humanitarian crisis. The prime minister was right to identify this as a challenge and
announced an emergency stimulus package of $8.5 billion (equivalent to 2.5 per cent of
GDP) for bridge financing of the working capital of small and distribute food aid
through Bangladesh's existing social safety programs as only 15 per cent of the
Bangladeshi population earns over $6 a day, and over 90 per cent of the workforce
belongs to the informal sector. As Bangladesh Government does not have enough fiscal
space to make large stimulus packages due to low tax-to-GDP ratio, the only possible
option is monetary expansion, which most developed economies have already deployed.
According to the forecast released by the Economist Intelligence Unit on 26 March, the
global economy is expected to contract by 2.2 per cent in 2020.

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These effects are expected to be more exposed in major G20 economies, such as
Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and the US - all countries that are major markets
for Bangladesh's most vital tradable good: readymade garments. The depressed oil prices
will also lead to a strong reversal of growth in the Middle East and North Africa region,
which is also home to a large Bangladeshi diaspora, who send back close to $20 billion
every year. In the coming months, there can be no doubt that there will be a decrease in
remittances and that these second-degree impacts will also be felt in the country,
painfully in rural Bangladesh, where families rely heavily on remittances for their
survival. However, in this critical situation, banks and other NBFIs must take due
preparation to accelerate economic recovery in the post-covid-19 situation where the
board and top management have critical role to play. Crisis preparedness would be a key
to bring stability. A watch group should be formed for data assessing and make ready the
bank & NBFIs for preparing a reliable situational analysis when needed. Strategies need
to be proclaimed clearly so that all workforces ensure preparing themselves as effective
as well as efficient at this stage for damage-control

Navigating the Global COVID-19 Shutdown

As governments across the world enforce lockdowns to suppress the spread of Covid-19, and
with global markets set for their worst quarter since the 2008 financial crisis, what will be the
impact on Bangladesh’s economy? Here Sajid Amit (University of Liberal Arts
Bangladesh) provides an overview of how small businesses, startups, the financial sectors,
consumer demand, remittances and the ready-made garment sector will fare in the coming
months.

Globalization has brought great benefits to Bangladesh’s apparel industry as international

fashion company’s farm out production to cost-effective centers for manufacturing, and by
carefully orchestrating a supply chain that spans multiple countries, are still able to deliver
products at stores, in time. Covid-19, however, has exposed the vulnerability of these cross-
country supply chains, with negative consequences for Bangladesh. The potential negative
impact on Bangladesh’s economy due to Covid-19 however depends on the duration of the crisis.
There is a limited possibility, following lockdowns around the world that infections may return
in subsequent waves, even if in limited quantities, which may continue to have economic
impacts. There are experts however who argue that a potential global recession will fade out by
Q4 2020. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) thinks that the recession will be worse, but
more short-lived than the global financial crisis of 2008. The duration matters greatly for
Bangladesh, because its economic fate is closely tied to the fate of countries that enable the two
R’s that drive it: ready-made garments (RMG) and remittance.

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The 2 R’s: RMG & Remittances
Ready-made Garments (RMG) companies that buy from Bangladesh are literally closing doors
all over European and American cities. Stores have closed for H&M, GAP, Zara, Marks &
Spencer, Primark, which are all major buyers. Shopping has come to a standstill as people avoid
discretionary spending. There is also a measure of panic regarding raw materials sourced from
China. As of 23 March, 264 Bangladeshi garment factories have faced cancellations. H&M, one
of the largest buyers of Bangladeshi garments, has had to “temporarily pause new orders as well
as evaluate potential changes on recently placed orders.”At the time of writing, BGMEA
President Ms. Rubana Huq suggested the total impact of order postponement/cancellations will
amount to US$1.5 billion, which is roughly 50% of our average export income in a month.
Insiders interviewed suggest that if the virus continues to impact global supply chains, buyer
demand, and of course, health and safety of workers, by Q4 2020, loss in export revenues could
reach US$ 4.0 billion. This is not surprising because slowdown in US and EU economies have
had ripple effects in the Bangladesh economy (Figure 1). This correlation is most evident for the
global financial crisis in 2008, when Bangladeshi GDP growth curve mirrors those of US and
EU, albeit the drop off was less severe than for the developed economies.

However, international credit rating agency Moody’s expects that the RMG sector in Bangladesh
will recover by the end of the year, as demand recovers and supply chain shocks are overcome.
Meanwhile, the other pillar of the Bangladesh economy – remittances sent by migrant workers –
will also take an inevitable hit. Bangladesh has around 10 million workers overseas, with a
majority in the Middle East and the US, UK, and Malaysia. Travel restrictions as well as an
economic slowdown and curfews in host countries in Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait,
Malaysia, US and EU countries mean that workers are losing out on wages. The Japan News tells
us a story of Jahirul Islam, 30-years-old, who will lose out on 2 months’ pay, after being
instructed by his employer, the Abu Dhabi Sports Academy, to go home. While he decided to
stay put for fear not being able to re-enter, there are news reports that an untold number of
migrant workers have returned. There are also disconcerting stories of migrant workers being
shepherded into “labour camps” in Qatar.

Furthermore, oil prices have fallen precipitously, which is expected to aggravate demand for
migrant workers. Oil prices are often an effective leading indicator of inward remittances (Figure
2). History shows that falling oil prices have a lagged effect on remittances into Bangladesh. At
present, prices are falling because of reduced demand from sectors such as aviation and
transportation sectors, as well as the Russia-Saudi Arabia price war. Overall, the drop in export
revenues, RMG worker layoffs, and reduced flow of remittances will impact demand in the
urban and rural consumer economy of Bangladesh.

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Impact on Consumer Demand
According to the latest reports, scores of RMG factories are shutting down and workers are going
back to the villages. This creates pressure on the rural economy at a time when urban-rural
economic linkages have also been severely disrupted. To speak of the urban economy, malls
have been closed from 25 March, as per directive of the Bangladesh Shop Owners Association.
Only kitchen markets, grocers’ shops, shops selling daily essential commodities and
pharmacies have been allowed to stay open. In Bangladesh, footfalls will be minimal in April,
which is usually a time stores do brisk business, because of Pohela Boishakh. In one interview, a
retailer with a relatively high capital investment argued she would focus more on her online
sales. Our research suggests that several large retailers will look to strengthen their online
operations, if effects of Covid-19 last until May, which is the month of Eid, which is when
retailers do most of their business. At the time of writing, Bangladesh supermarkets have had
more resilient business, albeit for food items and groceries.

Of course, one of the hardest-hit sectors is aviation. In interviews conducted with one of the
largest travel agencies in Bangladesh, there was considerable concern about paying staff salaries
at a time when customers were seeking cancellations, refunds, and holidays were clearly out of
the question. Globally, travel agencies have digitised significant components of their value chain,
especially booking and payments. Certain Bangladeshi travel startups have invested in this space,
and as a result, may fare better than the competition in the wake of the crisis. However, travel
agencies constitute a fragmented sector in Bangladesh, and owing to Covid-19, many small ones
are expected to close shop. Airlines and hotels have also been badly hit. As of 1 March, Mr.
Abdus Salam Aref, former Secretary-General of the Association of Travel Agents of
Bangladesh, reported that outbound passengers had fallen by 70-80% and inbound, 35-40%. By
the end of March, inbound passengers are expected to fall by 70-80%.

Overall, the current economic situation may seriously undermine the livelihood of the
underprivileged cohort of the population. The Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has predicted
that the effect of Covid-19 will be worst for people who are dependent on daily wages and low-
income groups. Lack of access to basic healthcare, knowledge of hygiene and a social safety net
have always been a challenge for this cohort and the pandemic is likely to increase these
challenges, exponentially.

Challenges for the Financial Sector

Covid-19 catches the Bangladesh financial sector at an inopportune time. Banks were trying to
come to terms with the Ministry of Finance directive of 6% and 9% caps to interest rates on
deposits and loans; vulnerable asset quality; moribund capital markets; and a struggling
microfinance sector as access to donor funds and bank financing become more competitive. It is
worth noting that in the last three months, private sector credit growth was already declining

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A CEO of a leading private commercial bank suggests that banks were taking time to adjust to
the 9% directive, as many were reluctant to lend at this rate. As effects of Covid-19 intensify,
given that there have been several large-scale order cancellations for RMG clients, many loans
may go into default, which is worrisome for the sector. In the coming months, government sector
bank borrowing may decline. This is because large projects such as the Padma Bridge, Padma
Rail Link, Karnaphuli Road Tunnel and the Greater Dhaka Sustainable Urban Transport
Project involve financial and technical input from China, both of which are expected to be
adversely affected. However, a temporary slowdown in government borrowing may assist
private sector lending, through a “crowding in” effect. The significance of these remains to be
seen. The Bangladesh Bank has also attempted to pump cash into the economy. It has cut both
repo rate and cash reserve ratio by 25 and 50 basis points, respectively.

Moreover, the central bank is buying dollars from commercial banks, with the intention of
curbing taka’s appreciation against the dollar, has provided guidance on provisions for
rescheduled loans, and instructed banks to extend tenure to realise export proceeds, while
allowing importers time to make import payments. Once the current risks of infection subside,
quantitative easing is expected to encourage banks to seek out investment opportunities.
Whenever this happens, some of this liquidity may also find its way into the stock market.
Therefore, while markets are falling, and it is of course, never possible to time a market bottom,
there are fundamentally strong equities trading at historically low prices at present.

Impact on Small Businesses and Startups

At times of economic turmoil, small businesses and startups are usually the worst hit. Raising
funds is difficult as it is, for small businesses and startups. When it comes to SME’s, in an
environment of 6% and 9%, access to finance will become more difficult as banks will be
reluctant to make SME loans at 9%, since SME operations are more expensive for banks. It is
hoped that the Government will offer SMEs some form of reprieve in the stimulus package that
is being designed. For Bangladeshi startups, although the ecosystem is at an early stage, with a
handful of startups responsible for a lion share of funds raised, Covid-19 has had adverse
consequences. Fundraising for startups is difficult even in a healthy economy. At the time of the
corona virus, when public equities are being deemed risky and even gold prices have been shaky,
startup investing will likely take a considerable hit in the coming months. The silver lining to this
economic scenario is that the Bangladesh government has come out strongly and in a timely
manner announcing a multispectral stimulus package that will shore up RMG businesses,
provide direct incentives to workers, buttress the banking system, ensure liquidity in the
economy, enable reprieve to exporters and importers, and provide support to other impacted
sectors such as tourism, aviation, and hospitality. In the long run, Covid-19 will have exposed
areas for improvement in our health care system, IT infrastructure, workplace cultures, and
adaptability of our public and private sector leadership.

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ILO:
As job losses escalate, nearly half of global workforce at risk of losing livelihoods:
The latest ILO data on the labour market impact of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the
devastating effect on workers in the informal economy and on hundreds of millions of
enterprises worldwide.

Press release | 29 April 202 Kandukuru Nagarjun GENEVA (ILO News) – The continued sharp
decline in working hours globally due to the COVID-19 outbreak means that 1.6 billion workers
in the informal economy – that is nearly half of the global workforce – stand in immediate
danger of having their livelihoods destroyed, warns the International Labour Organization.

According to the ILO Monitor third edition: COVID-19 and the world of work , the drop in
working hours in the current (second) quarter of 2020 is expected to be significantly worse than
previously estimated.

Compared to pre-crisis levels (Q4 2019), a 10.5 per cent deterioration is now expected,
equivalent to 305 million full-time jobs (assuming a 48-hour working week). The previous
estimate was for a 6.7 per cent drop, equivalent to 195 million full-time workers. This is due to
the prolongation and extension of lockdown measures.

Regionally, the situation has worsened for all major regional groups. Estimates suggest a 12.4
per cent loss of working hours in Q2 for the Americas (compared to pre-crisis levels) and 11.8
per cent for Europe and Central Asia. The estimates for the rest of the regional groups follow
closely and are all above 9.5 per cent.

Informal Economy Impact

As a result of the economic crisis created by the pandemic, almost 1.6 billion informal economy
workers (representing the most vulnerable in the labour market), out of a worldwide total of two
billion and a global workforce of 3.3 billion, have suffered massive damage to their capacity to
earn a living. This is due to lockdown measures and/or because they work in the hardest-hit
sectors.

The first month of the crisis is estimated to have resulted in a drop of 60 per cent in the income
of informal workers globally. This translates into a drop of 81 per cent in Africa and the
Americas, 21.6 per cent in Asia and the Pacific, and 70 per cent in Europe and Central Asia.
Without alternative income sources, these workers and their families will have no means to
survive.

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Enterprises at Risk
The proportion of workers living in countries under recommended or required workplace
closures has decreased from 81 to 68 per cent over the last two weeks. The decline from the
previous estimate of 81 per cent in the second edition of the monitor (published April 7) is
primarily a result of changes in China; elsewhere workplace closure measures have increased.
Worldwide, more than 436 million enterprises face high risks of serious disruption. These
enterprises are operating in the hardest-hit economic sectors, including some 232 million in
wholesale and retail, 111 million in manufacturing, 51 million in accommodation and food
services, and 42 million in real estate and other business activities.

Urgent Policy Measures Needed

The ILO calls for urgent, targeted and flexible measures to support workers and businesses,
particularly smaller enterprises, those in the informal economy and others who are vulnerable.
“For millions of workers, no income means no food, no security and no future. [...] As the
pandemic and the jobs crisis evolve, the need to protect the most vulnerable becomes even more
urgent."

Guy Ryder, ILO Director-General

Measures for economic reactivation should follow a job-rich approach, backed by stronger
employment policies and institutions, better-resourced and comprehensive social protection
systems. International co-ordination on stimulus packages and debt relief measures will also be
critical to making recovery effective and sustainable. International labour standards, which
already enjoy tripartite consensus, can provide a framework. “As the pandemic and the jobs
crisis evolve, the need to protect the most vulnerable becomes even more urgent,” said ILO
Director-General Guy Ryder. “For millions of workers, no income means no food, no security
and no future. Millions of businesses around the world are barely breathing. They have no
savings or access to credit. These are the real faces of the world of work. If we don’t help them
now, these enterprises will simply perish.”

COVID-19 Testing Facilities

Five weeks after the detection of the first COVID-19 case in Bangladesh, the IEDCR had only
tested 11,223 people, constituting approximately 68 tests per million populations (5, 7) (Figure
2). It is perhaps among the worst-ranked countries for nCoV-2 testing rate, though the mortality
rate is comparatively higher (7). It should be noted that in the first 3 weeks after the detection of
the first COVID-19 case in Bangladesh, the IEDCR was the sole diagnostic facility in the
country of 180 million people, and the daily testing rate remained below 100 per day (33). The
centralization of COVID-19 diagnosis facilities is somewhat plausible, as most hospitals do not
have enough personal protective equipment (PPE). However, this left the mass of people and
healthcare workers in an awfully susceptible condition.

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As a result of the combined lack of PPE and diagnostic testing capacity, fear, and anxiety geared
up among the mass population, and many healthcare workers refused to provide any service.
With much criticism from different sectors, the health authorities of the country ultimately
decided to expand its testing numbers from April 3 (33). Currently (April 11, 2020), there are 17
labs across the country working on testing probable/referral cases of COVID-19, and a few more
labs are being established in different districts, including one in Sylhet at Shahjalal University of
Science and Technology (34, 35). The situation became even complicated as four doctors at the
Dhaka Medical College and Hospital, the largest hospital in Bangladesh, were sent into home
quarantine after they handled a person who was later identified as having COVID-19. Later on,
many more doctors and health workers were sent into quarantine, and many of them tested
positive for COVID-19 (36, 37). The health system of Bangladesh depends on around 100
thousand registered doctors, and if these very few doctors compared to the population size are
unable to provide their healthcare service as a result of the unavailability of PPE, this could have
potentially catastrophic consequences. Different people in different ways, most infected people
will develop mild to moderate illness and recover without hospitalization.
Most common symptoms:
 Fever
 Dry cough
 Tiredness

Less Common Symptoms:

 Aches and pains
 Sore throat
 Diarrhea
 Conjunctivitis
 Headache
 Loss of taste or smell
 A rash on skin, or discoloration of fingers or toes

Bangladesh's Response to COVID-19

With almost every country adopting aggressive non-therapeutic measures to control the spread of
nCoV-2, Bangladesh in Southeastern Asia has followed the same trend; however, there is an
ongoing debate as to whether measures have been adopted adequately and implemented
efficiently. The country confirmed the first COVID-19 case in its territory on March 7, though
many experts speculated that nCoV-2 may have entered the country earlier than that but had not
been detected due to inadequate monitoring (4). As of April 13, the country had reported 803
cases of COVID-19, and the death toll stood at 39 (Figure 1) (5–7). However, concerns have
been raised that extreme insufficiency of testing assays may be leaving many cases undetected in
the country.

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In response to the emergence of the virus, Bangladesh admittedly reduced international flights,
imposed thermal scanner checking, and shut down schools; however, offices maintained their
regular schedules until March 26. On March 15, the country banned all flights coming from
Europe except the United Kingdom; however, the authority still allowed flights from Europe to
land in an airport (8). As a result, over 631 thousand people entered the country in just 55 days
from January 21 (9). Although the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research
(IEDCR) claimed that it tested every single person who entered the country, there has been
intense criticism of the testing facilities in the ports of entry (10, 11). Beginning on March 16,
the country imposed a 14-day obligatory quarantine to all travelers who entered the country (12).
It attempted to bring travelers coming from Italy—which was then declared a new epicenter of
the pandemic—to a quarantine site. The move was sharply criticized due to a lack of
arrangements, and the travelers were allowed to enter the country by themselves on the condition
of 14-day-long self-isolation. Since then, hundreds of expatriates who came from COVID-19-
affected countries have been seen out in the streets and gatherings—traveling to tourist sites,
meeting with friends and families (13). On March 19, the country deployed the army to supervise
two quarantine facilities in Dhaka (14). From the first week of March, Bangladesh started to
postpone all mass gatherings, including the 100th-anniversary celebration event of the birth of its
founder, Sheik Mujibur Rahman, as a preventive measure against the spread of nCoV-2 (15).
Despite these measures, tens of thousands of people gathered in a special prayer session for
protection against nCoV-2 in Lakshmipur, despite not having the local Government's permission.

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Conclusion:
Employees of a nonwhite ethnicity are somewhat more likely to work in jobs that are at risk from
COVID-19-related furloughs and layoffs in the short term. The overall share of nonwhite
workers is around 14 percent of the UK workforce, but they currently fill around 15 percent of
the jobs at risk. In the COVID-19 crisis, there are factors operating both in favor and against
BAME employees. On one hand, 16 percent of key workers are nonwhite a larger proportion
than their share in the overall workforce. On the other hand, certain at-risk occupations tend to be
disproportionately filled by BAME workers. Examples include taxi drivers and chauffeurs,
where black, Asian and minority ethnic groups make up 13 percent, 5 percent, and 4 percent of
employment, respectively. People of Asian ethnicity, who account for 7 percent of the United
Kingdom’s total workforce, make up 13 percent of cooks, chefs, catering, and bar managers and
driving instructors. Black workers, whose share of employment overall is 3 percent, make up 6
percent of such vulnerable jobs as dental nurses, workers in the apparel trade, and cleaning
occupations. Jobs at risk among mixed and other ethnicities include housekeepers and actors,
entertainers, and presenters. Workers, too, are facing shocks – and so are consumers. The fear of
becoming infected, The prospect of losing livelihoods, these and other severe vulnerabilities are
being exacerbated by inadequate social protection coverage, which means that millions of people
around the world are unable to access adequate medical care, or any social benefits. I
understand that business leaders have a wealth of pressing concerns, yet I would like to put
workers, and other ordinary people, at the core of your discussions today. The health of every
business depends on both workers', and consumers', well-being. And we need clear thinking and
responsible solidarity, to ensure that the least possible damage is done, throughout this crisis, to
everyone. The COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh is part of the worldwide pandemic of corona
virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona
virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus was confirmed to have spread to Bangladesh in March 2020.
The first three known cases were reported on 8 March 2020 by the country's epidemiology
institute, IEDCR. Since then, the pandemic has spread day by day over the whole nation and the
number of affected people has been increasing. In order to protect the population, the
government declared "lockdown" throughout the nation from 23 March to 30 May and prepared
some necessary steps to spread awareness to keep this syndrome away from them. Infections
remained low until the end of March but saw a steep rise in April. In the week ending on 11
April, new cases in Bangladesh grew by 1,155 percent, the highest in Asia, ahead of Indonesia,
with 186 percent. On 6 May, cases were confirmed in all districts. Rangamati was the last district
to report confirmed cases of COVID-19. On 13 June, the number of cases in Bangladesh
exceeded the number of cases in China, the country where the outbreak began. Bangladesh
reached two grim milestones of 160,000 cases and 2,000 deaths on 5 July and overtook France in
terms of the number of cases two days later. The number of recoveries in the country exceeded
the number of active cases on 12 July. COVID-19 and its impact on businesses and workers
International Organization of Employers Digital Dialogue Statement by Michelle Bachelet, UN
High Commissioner for Human Rights

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in-quarantine-hundreds-fined-over-a-million-taka
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