Weekly

Weekly Report
Report

AGRI
MARKET

31st Jan - 05th Feb, 2011

Profit booking in spices due to fresh arrivals !

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

JEERA (Jan)
Jeera tumbles on selling pressure !

Fundamental Overview
The Jeera futures continued to fall for 2nd consecutive session. Futures started the week on extended selling pressure. Steady spot market activity also
supported the down trend. However, prices showed smart recovery on short covering but failed to sustain the gains and futures ended on negative note. The
Jeera futures are projected to trade range bound next week. Continued profit booking can be seen initially. However, prices may reverse the direction on short
covering at lower levels. Nonetheless, huge arrivals at spot market are likely to weigh on sentiments. Average daily prices at spot market of Unjha were steady
to13,800 per quintal. Arrivals reported were higher to 6000-7000 bags (each bag= 55 Kg). According to data released by Spices Board, Jeera export during
April- December was around 24,225 tons down by 37% compared to 38,300 tons during same period last year. As per derivative analysis, prices and open
interest are falling while volumes are rising. Market has a lot of traders initiating from both sides but larger traders may be liquidating into the higher prices. The
market may be vulnerable to large price swings as shorter time frame traders attempt to trade from both sides of the market but liquidating before end of- day.
Often a signal of a market turns near-term or continued volatility.

Reasons for Movement

Ÿ Selling pressure
Ÿ Profit booking

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 17210
R2 16140
R1 15500
PP 15070
S1 14435
S2 14000
S3 12930

Market Overview
Last week Jeera did our target of 15040 below the level of 15250, Last week in Jeera we had seen good profit booking coming at higher
levels and Jeera was not able to sustain above the crucial resistance of 15500. For the next week Jeera has resistance at 15500 and
support at 14450.

Strategy
Jeera is in a consolidation phase and one should use the strategy of sell on higher levels. If in the coming week Jeera sustains below the
level of 14450 then we can expect the level of 14150, and if it sustains above 15500 then we can see the level of 15800.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

GUARSEED (Jan)
Guar rises on robust demand !

Fundamental Overview
Guar, last week we have seen that market has moved up due to robust demand for Guar gum from exporters to complete overseas orders and active buying
from stockiest and millers amid falling arrivals. Export demand is good and is likely to remain firm in coming days. Total Guar gum exports are expected to be
higher this year because of a recovery in global demand. The estimate has been lowered slightly from the previous estimate due to unseasonal rains during
the harvesting operations. In Jodhpur Guar prices gained 59.35 rupees to 2712.35 rupees per 100 kg. The Guar seed and Guar gum futures are expected to
open positive next week on Monday. The decrease in the arrivals to 30000 bags from 45000 bags during the beginning of the week is exerting pressure on the
market. However the activity of the arbitragers across the spot markets might pressurize the futures market. The increase in the dematted stocks of the Guar
seed and gum is supporting this.

Reasons for Movement

Ÿ Export demand
Ÿ Decline in supply

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 3182
R2 2997
R1 2910
PP 2812
S1 2725
S2 2627
S3 2442

Market Overview
Last week Guarseed did our target of 2770 above the level of 2725 and even closed above it. Guarseed was bullish throughout the
previous week and was sustaining at higher levels. For the next week Guarseed has resistance at 2875 and support at 2650.

Strategy
For next week in Guar seed traders should go for buying at lower levels strategy, if Guar seed sustains above the level of 2875 we can see
the level of 2935, and below 2710 it can touch the level of 2650.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

SOYABEAN (Feb)
Soybean declines on global cues !

Fundamental Overview
Soybean prices tumbled sharply last week due to bearish activity in Indian market. Drop in demand for Soybean and its derivatives led to a sharp decline in the
prices. Recent rally in the prices resulted into shrink in demand from local traders. Traders sold Soy futures on fear of likely government intervention to curtail
rising food inflation. Likely commencement of Mustard seeds from first week of February also had a bearish impact on the market. Moreover, improvement in
global weather condition had a bearish impact on Indian market. The Soybean futures are expected to show a smart recovery in early trade next week tracking
firm overseas market. CBOT Soybean futures ended higher by 1% reacting to better-than-expected weekly export sales data. Projection of lower carryover
stocks also supported the rise. According to USDA, Soybean export from US during January 14-21 period rose to 780,900 tons, up 7% W/W and 36% up from
previous 4-weeks average. However, upside was limited on improvement in weather condition in Argentina. In later hours of day, Indian market might turn
downside on bearish fundamental factors. Local demand for Soy and its derivatives has shrunk due to higher prices, which might lead to further decline in the
prices. Nearing of Rabi oilseeds harvesting season is likely to weigh on the market. During Rabi season, mustard oil is preferred over other oils across north
India. Market is speculating on likely government intervention to control higher food inflation, which is above 15%. The possible step likely from the
government is scrapping import duty on refined oils.

Reasons for Movement

Ÿ Drop In Demand
Ÿ Good Weather Conditions

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 2742
R2 2609
R1 2528
PP 2476
S1 2395
S2 2343
S3 2210

Market Overview
Last week Soybean did our target of 2450 below the level of 2480 and even closed below it. In Soybean last week we saw good profit
booking coming and it was not able to sustain at higher levels. For the next week Soybean has resistance at 2520 and support at 2395.

Strategy
Soybean is moving in an upward channel on charts and one should look for buying opportunities at lower levels, if Soybean sustains above
the level of 2520 we can see the level of 2560, and on the downside if it sustains below the level of 2395 we can see Soybean at 2345 level.

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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

CHANA (Jan)
Chana plunges on subdued demand !

Fundamental Overview
Chana futures trade declined last week owing to the sluggish spot demand. The buyers were inactive in the physical market which in turn exerted pressure on
the futures market. The spot prices drastically declined from 2675/quintal to 2650/quintal towards the end of the week in Delhi market. Chana futures are
expected to open positive next week on short covering. However, some weakness can be seen in the positive trend towards the noon session as the
fundamentals across the spot markets are different. Slack buying across the spot markets are likely to exert the prices after a positive opening. The recovering
weather conditions during the last week are likely to help the crop to recover from the damage of the cold wave conditions. The arrival across south India is
anticipated to hit the markets by February. All India acreage under chana has increased by 8% to 88.79 lakh ha as on 14th January. The decrease in prices,
volume and open interest indicates that market might turn bullish for the day.

Reasons for Movement

Ÿ Sluggish demand
Ÿ Profit booking

Daily Chart
Weekly Pivots

Script Levels
R3 3014
R2 2841
R1 2734
PP 2668
S1 2561
S2 2495
S3 2322

Market Overview
Last week Chana did our target of 2650 below the level of 2690 and even closed below it. Last week Chana was bearish for most part of the
week and even closed near to its weekly low. For the next week Chana has resistance at 2750 and support at 2580.

Strategy
Overall trend of Chana is consolidated and one should go for buying at lower levels strategy in it. For the coming week if Chana sustains
above 2750 level we can see it at 2800 and below 2580 we can expect the level of 2540.

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 Weekly Market Update

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest (Rs. in Lakhs)

JEERAUNJHA NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Jeera RS/QUINTAL 15714 15630 15710 14640 14870 51467 -844 9345 67,310.70

PPRMLGKOC NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Pepper RS/QUINTAL 23099 23093 23195 22175 22280 28570 -819 8667 55,378.92

TMCFGRNZM NCDEX 20-APR- 11 Turmeric RS/QUINTAL 10062 10000 10098 9710 9850 10485 -212 6350 9,303.84

GARSEDJDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Guarseed RS/QUINTAL 2811 2811 2899 2714 2824 1180170 13 163100 268,282.75

GARGUMJDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Guargum RS/QUINTAL 7410 7420 7858 7208 7630 68535 220 14805 40,057.80

CHARJDDEL NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Chana RS/QUINTAL 2763 2773 2775 2602 2628 522600 -135 89360 123,844.05

SYBEANIDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Soybean RS/QUINTAL 2537 2541 2557 2424 2448 39146 -89 157720 86,986.48

SYOREFIDR NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Soy Oil Refined RS/10KGS 665.75 668 672.9 648.4 653.5 662640 -12.25 87090 396,592.32

RMSEEDJPR NCDEX 20-APR- 11 Rape Mustard RS/20KGS 2956 2960 3011 2913 2938 332780 -18 62560 89,988.64
Seed

COCUDAKL NCDEX 18-FEB-11 Cotton Seed RS/QUINTAL 1180 1185 1213 1157 1162 345880 -18 60660 37,849.10
Oil Cake

GURCHMUZR NCDEX 18- MAR -11 Gur RS/40KGS 944 940 952 931 945.5 21570 1.5 11400 4,627.23

POTATO NCDEX 18- MAR -11 Potato RS/QUINTAL 638.6 636.5 648 625.1 628.7 54885 -9.9 19875 3,227.64

KAPASSRNR NCDEX 29-APR- 11 Kapas RS./20KG 819.5 824.5 925 824.5 902.9 39356 83.4 5833 60,987.66

WHTSMQDELI NCDEX 18- MAR -11 Wheat RS/QUINTAL 1306.2 1307 1314 1287 1293.4 6260 -12.8 5290 766.30

MENTHA OIL MCX 28-FEB-11 Mentha oil RS/KG 1171.3 1175 1192.2 1159.6 1171.6 8388 0.3 4118 41082.37

CARDAMOM MCX 15- FEB -11 Cardamom RS/KG 1460.2 1461 1544 1392.2 1394 10233 -66.2 1904 21568.20

* Turnover Till Friday

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 Weekly Market Update

Exchange Commodity Closing Price % Change

NCDEX JEERA 14870 -5.37

NCDEX PEPPER 22280 -3.55

NCDEX TURMERIC 9850 -2.11

NCDEX GUARSEED 2824 0.46

NCDEX GUARGUM 7630 2.97

NCDEX CHANA 2628 -4.89

NCDEX SOYBEAN 2448 -3.51

NCDEX SOY OIL REFINED 653.5 -1.84

NCDEX RAPE MUSTARD SEED 2938 -0.61

NCDEX COTTONSEED OILCAKE 1162 -1.53

NCDEX GUR 945.5 0.16

NCDEX POTATO 628.7 -1.55

NCDEX KAPAS 902.9 10.18

NCDEX WHEAT 1293.4 -0.98

NCDEX MENTHA OIL 1171.6 0.03

NCDEX CARDAMOM 1394 -4.53

Weekly Gainers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

KAPAS 29-MAR-11 902.9 10.18

GUARGUM 18-FEB-11 7630 2.97

GUARSEED 18-FEB-11 2824 0.46

Weekly Losers
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

JEERA 18-FEB-11 14870 -5.37

CHANA 18-FEB-11 2628 -4.89

CARDAMOM 15- FEB -11 1394 -4.53

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 Weekly Pivots

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

JEERA( FEB) 17213.33 16143.33 15506.67 15073.33 14436.67 14003.33 12933.33

PEPPER( FEB) 24590.00 23570.00 22925.00 22550.00 21905.00 21530.00 20510.00

TURMERIC (APR) 10662.00 10274.00 10062.00 9886.00 9674.00 9498.00 9110.00

GUARSEED (FEB) 3182.33 2997.33 2910.67 2812.33 2725.67 2627.33 2442.33

GUARSGUM (FEB) 8865.33 8215.33 7922.67 7565.33 7272.67 6915.33 6265.33

CHANA (FEB) 3014.33 2841.33 2734.67 2668.33 2561.67 2495.33 2322.33

SOYBEAN (FEB) 2742.33 2609.33 2528.67 2476.33 2395.67 2343.33 2210.33

REFINED SOYA OIL (FEB) 707.27 682.77 668.13 658.27 643.63 633.77 609.27

MUSTARD (APR) 3150.00 3052.00 2995.00 2954.00 2897.00 2856.00 2758.00

COTTONSEED OIL CAKE (FEB) 1289.33 1233.33 1197.67 1177.33 1141.67 1121.33 1065.33

GUR (MAR) 984.83 963.83 954.67 942.83 933.67 921.83 900.83

POTATO (MAR) 679.73 656.83 642.77 633.93 619.87 611.03 588.13

KAPAS (APR) 1085.13 984.63 943.77 884.13 843.27 783.63 683.13

MENTHA OIL (JAN) 1239.67 1207.07 1189.33 1174.47 1156.73 1141.87 1109.27

CARDAMOM (FEB) 1747.00 1595.20 1494.60 1443.40 1342.80 1291.60 1139.80

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