ABSTRACT

This study attempts to evaluate optimum cost of air pollution (PM10) (Particulate
Matter with diameter less than or equal to 10 micrometer) control measures to attain an
environmental standard of Dhaka city and to compare with health cost and thus to find
out most economic way to achieve Bangladesh national standard of PM10 pollution.
This study will also show which one is more feasible and economic between to reduce
PM10 emission to national standard for avoiding respective health hazard and to invest
in health care due to PM10 exposure. For this purpose at first various sources of PM10
emission of Dhaka city are identified and emission quantity for individual source is
estimated. It is found that all emission sources use petrol, diesel, coal and biomass as
burning fuel which can be easily replaced by CNG (Compressed Natural Gas).It is
noted that natural gas (NG) has about zero PM10 emission . Besides, in Bangladesh
natural gas (NG) is abundantly available. Cost of using CNG to every emission sources
is estimated. A set of control measures to satisfy environmental standard with a
minimum total cost is found by using Linear Programming (LP) method: the cost
becomes US$ 353.53 million per year. On the other hand health cost due to PM10
exposure has been already estimated for Dhaka city. One of the latest studies ( A.K.
Azad, et. al. 2003) on health damage due to PM10 exposure shows the cost of US$ 1820
million per year. From these two studies it is showed that US$ 1466.47 million saving
from health cost which is equivalent to 2.4 % of national GDP.
 LIST OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1

1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Background of the research 2
1.3 Objective of the research 9

Chapter 2
ASSUMED METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE
PM10EMISSION
2.1 Methodology of the research 10
2.2 Re-suspended soil dust 10
2.3 Construction dust 11
2.4 Motor vehicle 12
2.5 Brick kiln emission 14
2.6 Industry emission 15

Chapter 3
EXPERIMENTAL AND MODELING APPROACH
3.1 Data preparation 19
3.2 Modeling approach 20
3.3 Formulation of cost function 21

Chapter 4
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Result and discussion 26
4.2 Rapid urbanization-a cause of rapid air pollution (PM10) 27

Chapter 5
ASSESMENT OF HEALTH ESTIMATION DUE TO PM10 EXPOSURE

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 5.1 Estimating the health cost 29
5.2 Risk assessment of PM10 30
5.3 Economic Valuation of health effect 31

Chapter 6
RECOMMENDATION AND FUTURE SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH
6.1 Limitation, recommendation and future scope 33
6.2 Recommendations to improve air quality in Dhaka 33

Chapter 7
7.1 Conclusion 35
7.2 References 36
7.3 Acknowledgement 37

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 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Air is indispensable for the survival of all living organisms on earth, including human beings. It
is even more important than water - without water a person can survive for days, but without air
no more than a couple of minutes. Air pollution is one of a variety of manmade environmental
disasters that are currently taking place all over the world. Air pollution may be defined as an
atmospheric condition in which various substances are present at concentrations high enough
above their normal ambient levels to produce a measurable effect on people, animals, vegetation,
or materials. ‘Substances’ refers to any natural or manmade chemical elements or compounds
capable of being airborne. These may exist in the atmosphere as gases, liquid drops, or solid
particles. It includes any substance whether noxious or benign; however, the term ‘measurable
effect’ generally restricts attention to those substances that cause undesirable effects. Recently,
air pollution has received priority among environmental issues in Asia, as well as in other parts
of the world. Exposure to air pollution is the main environmental threat to human health in many
towns and cities. Particulate emission is mainly responsible for increased death rate and
respiratory problems for the urban population. This problem is acute in Dhaka being the capital
of the country and also the hub of commercial activity. The other urban areas i.e. Chittagong,
Khulna, Bogra and Rajshahi have much lesser health problem related to urban air pollution. The
ambient atmospheric conditions have progressively deteriorated due to the unprecedented growth
in numbers of motor vehicles, and continuous housing and industrial development. Bangladesh is
one of the least developed agrarian nations in the world. However, since it’s birth in 1971, there
has been some growth in the industrial sector. Industries are mainly concentrated in major urban
areas like Dhaka (the capital), the seaport cities like Chittagong and Khulna, the inland port city
Narayanganj, and other divisional towns. Naturally, the air pollution problem is more acute in
these areas. Apart from unplanned industrial development in these areas, the severity of the
pollution is increased mainly due to exhausts from two-stroke engine and diesel-run vehicles.
Dhaka city is facing serious air pollution and has become one of the most polluted cities in the
world. A report by the World Bank indicates that concentration of particulate matter (PM10) is

1
higher than the Bangladeshi ambient air quality standard and even higher than the WHO
guidelines. PM10 concentration is now about three times higher than national annual standard
(2004). Air quality of Dhaka city has improved substantially in the recent past due to the removal
of two-stroke engine baby taxis. But the gains are being progressively lost due to pollution from
four stroke petrol vehicles, diesel vehicles and road dust. The main air quality problem in Dhaka
is the high level of particulate matter. Both PM10 and PM2.5 levels are high, being much above
the safety standards especially during the dry season. The increasing number of vehicles and
their improper management, traffic congestion and operation are responsible for degradation of
the air quality. The economic valuation of the air pollution revealed that between US$ 121 to 353
million per year (2003 estimate) can be saved in Dhaka as health cost if the PM10 pollution level
is reduced by a modest 20% of the current level (Khaliquzzaman, 2005a). Air pollution is
causing a serious threat to public health in most of the urban centers in the developing countries,
according to experts. In the study, health impact of PM10 in Dhaka City for 2002 was evaluated.
Risk assessment of PM10 has been performed and evaluation of economic loss due to adverse
health effects has also been made. "Results from this analysis showed that the number of excess
deaths per annum owing to PM10 pollution in Dhaka is 10,350." For PM10 pollution, this study
predicts about 74,000 cases of chronic bronchitis, about 70 million cases of restricted activity
days, about 14,000 cases of respiratory hospital diseases, over 286,000 emergency room visits,
about 2.8 million cases of asthma attacks and over 220 million respiratory symptom days(A. K.
Azad, et. al.2003).
PM10 composed of fully dispersed liquids and solids, including soot, dust and organic and
inorganic substances are the most harmful. It is emitted in the atmosphere from various activity
sources, such as transportation, fuel combustion, industrial process and solid waste disposal.
Quoting other studies and research works, the study found a strong evidence of the relationship
between PM10 and premature death as well as disease. Identifying the sources of particulate air
pollution has been reported (Begum et al, 2005). Seven components have been found in the
coarse PM (PM2.2-10) and six components have been found in the fine (PM2.2) particulate
matter.

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1.2 BACKGROUND OF THE RESEARCH
Dhaka is now one of the most polluted cities of the world. Especially the concentration of PM10
is very high in the air of Dhaka. It is about three times higher than the Bangladesh national
standard and has become a great threat to public health. So, it is high time to take step to
diminish the PM10 emission. Major sources of PM10 emission in Dhaka city are motor vehicle,
re-suspended road dust, industries, brick kilns and construction dust. It is observed that the lion
shares of PM10 emission comes from vehicular emission. It is about 45% of total PM10
emission. All the sources of PM10 use fossil and biomass fuel. Motor vehicles use diesel and
petrol oil for their combustion which yields PM10. Besides, there are lots of two stroke engine
motor vehicles in Dhaka city. They pollute the air more because of improper combustion. There
about 4000 brick kiln around Dhaka city. These brick kilns use wood, coal and tyres as fuel.
Although Industries around Dhaka are trying to use natural gas fuel, some industries are still
using coal and diesel as fuel. Air of Dhaka city is very dusty because of re-suspended soil dust
and construction dust. A brief conception about above five PM10 emission sources needs to deal
with.

i) Re-suspended soil dust: It is estimated that 1000 ton road dust accumulated every year
(Bangladesh Obsever-2003). To control this road dust there are two methods are set, Street
sweeping machines and watering and brooming. A modern waterless vacuum assisted street
weeping machine can remove 99.6% dirt, dust and debris
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/ultraurb/3fs16.htm. The approximately capacity of this
machine is 17 km per day swept. So about 55 days required for a machine to clean whole the city
.So to clean whole the Dhaka city (941Km2) in a week, it needs to buy 8 waterless vacuum-

assisted street sweeper Machine and divide the Dhaka city by 8 major regions. After
every two months this cleaning activity will be conducted.

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 Fig.1. A modern waterless vacuum-assisted street sweeping machine

ii) Construction dust: Construction works includes fugitive dust particulate matter created by
construction activities while constructing buildings, pavements and roads .The emissions result
predominantly from site preparation work which may include scraping, grading, loading,
digging, compacting, light-duty vehicle travel, and other operations. The source of the dust when
dealing with construction sites comes from materials such as cement, sand, gravel, limestone,
wood, dirt and the demolition of previous buildings. To illustrate this point, research at
construction sites has established an average dust emission rate of 1.2 tons/acre/month for active
construction (WA Dept. of Ecology, 1992). The suspended particulate matter that originates
from construction sites is not only detrimental to human health but also to the environment as a
whole. Dust clouds are carried from the construction site to environmentally fragile areas such as
lakes, rivers, streams, earth and agricultural land. The demand for an environmentally friendly
dust suppressant is growing at an unbelievable rate due to the explosion of infrastructure found
in most countries and regions throughout the world today. With these new developments of
infrastructure come many new environmentally related issues that need to be answered. One of

4
those is the problem of dust contamination. What makes this problem even more of an issue is
the fact that most new construction sites are built in and around pre-existing infrastructure. The
problem that arises with this is that where infrastructure already exists, people exist and inhabit
the immediate area. Therefore, the suspended particulate matter that spawns from the
construction site is then redistributed throughout the surrounding community.

Fig.2 Construction site creating dust storm

iii) Motor Vehicles:

Due to rapid and unplanned urbanization the total number of vehicles has increased
enormously. Most of the cars, jeeps, auto-rickshaws, motorcycles, etc., ply in the cities. This
has really led to a deterioration of air quality, particularly in Dhaka. Fig. 3 shows the different
types of automotive vehicles plying in Dhaka, which indicates their rate of growth. Although
the percentage of two stroke autorickshaws is around 8 per cent, some recent studies have
shown that they contribute around 40 per cent of PM10 and 50 per cent of HC in Dhaka City.
The second largest polluters are trucks and buses. Two-stroke petrol engines are less fuel-
efficient, and emit about 30-100 times more unburned hydrocarbons than four-stroke engines;

5
and diesel engines emit 13 times more smoke than non-diesel four-stroke engines. The
automobiles on the roads are often very old, overloaded, and poorly maintained. Other old
vehicles, including 40-year old trucks and dilapidated mini-buses, are also plying the city
streets emitting smokes and gases. According to an assessment made by DoE, 90 per cent of
the vehicles that ply Dhaka’s streets daily are faulty, and emit smoke far exceeding the
prescribed limit. Black smoke which is primarily unburned fine carbon particles is emitted by
diesel vehicles.
Among all the sources motor vehicles contribute largest share of PM10 emission. There are
about 322,803 motor plying in Dhaka city (except CNG converted two stroke-three wheeler).
They are two stroke petrol engine vehicles, four stroke petrol engine vehicles and four stroke
diesel engine vehicles. Motor vehicle itself contributes 45 % of the total emission

Table. 1 Total number of motor vehicles (except CNG converted two stroke 3-wheeler) plying
in Dhaka city

Category of Vehicles Number Percentage

Two stroke engine vehicles ( motor cycle) 140050 44 %
Four stroke petrol engine vehicles(Car, Jeep, 155749 48%
Minibus, Microbus, taxi etc)
Four stroke Diesel engine vehicles (Bus, Truck, 27004 8%
Tractor)
Total 322,803 100%

Source: AQMP (Air Quality Monitoring Project, Dhaka- 2003)

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 Fig. 3 Rate of increasing various motor vehicles

iv) Brick kilns emission: Unplanned and mushroom growth of Brick kilns around Dhaka city
a mass used tyres, fuel wood and coal to fire their furnaces in the most rudimentary way from
Sonargaon and Kanchpur to Kamrangirchar, and from Hazaribagh, Mohammadpur and
Keraniganj to Savar, Konabari and Gazipur, about 4000 of this kilns will be burning millions
of tons of these highly toxic 'fuels' round-the-clock until the rainy season sets in. Ar in
previous years, exhausts from these kilns will blanket the city and its peripheral area with a
thin cloud of toxic gas for the next few months. Millions of people, livestock and arable lands,
trees and waterbodies in these areas will be exposed to a high level of air pollution, giving rise
to serious health hazards. There is a clear directive from DOE (Department of Environment)
that brick field can be setup on the banks of river or canal or beside any large waterbody.
Earth should be in the field which may be collected from that river, canal or waterbody.
Besides to release smoke them should be a 120 feet high chimney with filter installation. But
almost all the chimney used in the brickfields are found found to 40-50 feet high. Over 99
percent of there brick fields run without any Envionmental clearance what so ever. The
brickfield owners not only brush aside the legal requirement of installing filters in the
chimneys, but also openly defy the government ban on burning wood and toxic substance

7
such as used tyros . they also do not care about the legal requirement of having exhaust
chimneys high enough to disperse the waste beyond human contact. Neither the district
administrators nor the Department of Environment (DOE) has any programme in hand to look
at this environmental nightmare. The DOE is already struggling with a handful number of
inspectors to look in to thousands of other cases related to insurance of environmental
clearance to industrial units. The DOE officials say as per law of the land the police can also
clamp down on such practices but due to lack of initiative the law-enforcing authorities are
completely indifferent to the problem. In Bangladesh the owner of the brickfields somehow
managed the license and environment clearance from the DOE and after that they do not
follow it. Brickfield owners make money, land owner and contractors erect buildings
government officials make money bribes by allowing to continue the bad practice, but they
are about to spoil the health of the next generation . But who cares? with the city expending at
a rate of 1.5 kilometers a year in all direction, demand for bricks and other construction
materials is rising. In the absence of any sincere effort to tackle the environmental problem,
brick fields have mushroomed everywhere around the cities without any respect for the law of
the land or environment. So, handle this environmental nightmare carefully for our future
generation.

Fig.4 Mushroom growth brick kilns around Dhaka city emit particulate matter

v) Industry emission:- There are 1,176 industrial units in the country that heavily pollute the
environment. The concerned authorities have identified these industrial units and legal
procedures have been initiated against them. At the same time, a division bench of the High

8
Court asked the concerned department to ensure pollution control measures in 903 industrial
units that have been identified as polluters. The order was served in July 2001. A long time
has passed since these initiatives were taken. However, the scenario of industrial pollution has
not improved. Rather, there are more reports in the national dailies on increased industrial
pollution. People from all walks of life in different places of the country narrated their
sufferings due to industrial pollution. The farmers and the fishermen are suffering the most as
wastes and effluents from industrial units are dumped in croplands and water bodies.

The industries are highly concentrated around Dhaka. Many polluting industries, tanneries for
example, are located within the city. These industries discharge toxic chemicals like
chromium and mercury directly into the river.

Industrial Units in 5 Municipal Wards in Dhaka City

Number
Municipal Ward Types of Units
of Units
5 (Pallabi and its adjoining areas) 500 Saree, Paints, Mosquito repellent, Candle,
Foundry, Molding, Welding, Rubber shoe.
27 (Sabujbag and its adjoining areas) 20-25 Foundry, Welding, Molding.
Shoe, Rubber sandal, Welding, Molding,
42 (Mohammadpur and its adjoining
40-50
areas)
Foundry, Candle, Incense.
65 (Islamabag and its adjoining 2500-
Plastic, Engineering
areas) 3000
Padlock, Engineering, Pharmaceuticals,
81 (Gendaria and its adjoining areas) 100-150 Molding, foundry.

Number of polluting industries in Dhaka city is above 4000 ( Fig.5)

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 Fig.5: Number of major polluting industries in Dhaka city

PM10 consists of many different substances suspended in the atmosphere in the form of fine
particles (solid or liquid droplet). It can penetrate respiratory organs as we inhale air from
atmosphere. Thus it causes serious health damage such as asthma, chronic bronchitis etc.
Recent study shows the annual average concentration of PM10 in Dhaka city is 137 µg/m3
(Murshid & Shimada et. al. 2004) . But Proposed Bangladesh　average annual Standard is 50
µg/m3. So it is about 3 times higher than standard. Excess death per annum in Dhaka city due
to PM10 exposure is 10,350 ( A. K. Azad et. al. 2003). Over the two last decades, a lot of
studies demonstrated an association between daily or multi-day concentration of several
common air pollutants and premature mortality. Among these pollutants, various particulate
matter including PM10, PM2.5, black smoke and sulfates- appear to show the most consistent
association with mortality, although some associations have also been reported for ozone,
sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide. But major focus of air pollution
research in recent years based on health impacts by particulate matter: PM10 or PM2.5. But
all these studies show the relationship between PM10 and premature mortality and economic
loss in monetary value per year. But no study attempted how to prevent this premature
mortality and to stop the emission as well. This study will show a preventive measure to
control the PM10 emission to Bangladesh standard level. That is why this research attempts to
use CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) to every sector as we know natural gas has only 0 to 3%
PM10 emission () . On the other hand street sweeping machine will be used to remove road
dust of Dhaka city. A waterless vacuum assisted street sweeping machine can remove 99.6%
of dirt, dust and debris (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/ultraurb/3fs16.htm). All two

10
stroke petrol engine must be converted to four stroke CNG engine and all diesel and petrol
vehicles must be converted to CNG engine. Dhaka city has about 322,803 motor vehicles. So,
this program will need huge cost. This research will minimize this cost.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH

Air pollution is causing a serious threat to public health in most of the urban centers in the
developing countries. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is one of the most polluted cities in
the world. Three pollutants- Particulate Matter (PM10), Sulfur dioxide (S02), and air-borne-
lead pose significant air pollution problems, and have major public health impacts. Among the
pollutants, PM10 whose levels are 3 times higher than Bangladesh Standard in the heavily
polluted districts in Dhaka is the most harmful one.
This study will attempt to reduce PM10 from Dhaka City to proposed national standard by
applying various methods and technologies. As a result respective health hazard like asthma,
chronic bronchitis and other respiratory disease will be prevented . The cost of applying
various methods and technologies to reduce PM10 to standard value will be estimated and
minimized by Linear Programming (LP) method. A cost function will be formulated subjected
to constraint equations. After getting air pollution (PM10) cost solving by linear programming
method it will be compared to health cost of Dhaka city due to PM10 exposure. If air
pollution (PM10) cost is less than the health cost, this study will suggest the government to
give more emphasis on air pollution (PM10) control than to invest in respective health care. If
PM10 pollution is under control (Bangladesh standard annual standard average), respective
health damage like asthma, chronic bronchitis and other respiratory diseases can be prevented.
Then every year government need not to spent so large amount of money.

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CHAPTER 2

ASSUMED METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE PM10 EMISSION

2.1 Methodology of the research

Assumed methods and technologies for this research to reduce PM10 to Bangladesh standard
level are given below:-
1. Conversion of all two stroke engine vehicles into four stroke engine and using CNG
(Compressed Natural Gas) as fuel.
2. Incorporating CNG Kit to four stroke petrol engine for converting into CNG engine
3. Incorporating CNG Kit to four stroke diesel engine for converting into CNG engine
4. Using CNG in Industries and brick kilns as fuel.
5. Using street sweeping machines by CNG fuel to remove road dust.
6. Cleaning of construction dust by vacuum cleaner and cleaning of construction materials.
7. Estimating the cost for multi-year (two year) basis

For obtaining item 1 to 7 at first emission of every source has been estimated. It is already
pointed out that Dhaka city has five major emission sources. For five emission sources eight
methods are set to reduce PM10 emission to standard level in two years time period. The five
emission sources and their technologies to control emission are given below:-

2.2 Re-suspended soil dust:

8 street sweeping machine cost for the first year (equipment cost plus running cost) US$ 99.59
million and for the second year is US$ 0.35 million (running cost). In gutter area of street this
machine can not enter. The dust in gutter area is removed by brooming and watering. This is a
manual broom and will remove 80 ton of road dust. Labor cost is main for this method. It also
includes broom and water cost. Cost calculation is given below:

A Vacuum-assisted street sweeper Machine costs US$ 2,00,000

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 i) So, cost of 8 Vacuum-assisted sweeper Machine = US$ 2,00,000 * 8 = US$
1.6 Million

ii) CNG fuel cost to run the machine = 55 *100 m3 *8 *8.5 = US$ 0.35 Million.

iii) Training and Technician cost = Trainer cost + Technician cost = 8 trainer *per
trainer cost US$ 10,000* 365 + 75 technician and engineer@ average US$ 2500
*365 = US$ 97.64

Total cost = 1.6 + 0.35 + 97.64 = US$ 99.59 Million

Total cost for the first year US$ 99.59 million and for the second year is US$ 0.35 million.

2.3 Construction dust:

Construction works are done almost all the year round in Dhaka city. It creates dust mainly
from roads construction and building construction. Brick pebbles, grinding and crushing
bricks and materials scatter dust in the city. Amount of construction dust accumulated per year
is 400 ton PM10 (Bangladesh Observer-2003). Removing construction dust is mainly labor
oriented. Cleaning and washing construction materials is done by labor. Vacuum cleaners also
used to clean the accumulated dust. Cost calculation is given below:

Dhaka City Corporation (DCC) has 10,000 cleaner to clean the roads and pavements by
brooming and watering. Besides these construction workers use vacuum cleaner at
construction site.

Cost of cleaning construction dust and road dust of 941 km roads of Dhaka city can be
calculated as follows:

i) Brooming and watering cost conducted by DCC as routine work = Wage per
labor * Total number of cleaner * 365 days per year = US$ 4 * 10000 *365 =
US$ 14.6` Million USD
ii) Cost of broom = 10000 *12 times change * 2 = 0.24 Million USD

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 iii) Cost of water = 10,0000000 liters *0.25 = 0.37 Million USD

Total watering and brooming cost = 14.6+.24+.37 = 15.21 Million USD

iv) Cost removing construction dust (washing brick pebbles and dust cleaning at
building site by vacuum cleaner) = Vacuum cleaner cost + Total labor * wage
per labor * 200 days per year =6,8000 vacuum cleaner* Taka 10000 per cleaner
+ 80,000 * US$ 2.57 * 365 = US$ 175.2 Million

Cost of removing construction dust for the first year is US$ 175.20 million and for the second
year is US$ 75.20 million

2.4 Motor vehicles:

Three types of motor vehicles are now polluting the air of Dhaka city. They are two stroke
petrol engine vehicles, four stroke petrol engine vehicles and four stroke diesel engine
vehicles. At first two stroke engine vehicles needs to convert four stroke and then
incorporating CNG kit. Two stroke engine vehicles are more polluted than four stroke because
of improper combustion inside the engine cylinder. Two stroke vehicles emits 153 ton PM10
per year (Bangladesh Road Transport Authority-2003). Emission of various motor vehicles
are calculated from their emission factor and annual traffic volume (Table-2)

Table.2 Calculation of Emission per various types of vehicle is given below:-

Types of car Number Emission Factor Traffic Volume Total PM10

(kg/vehicle.km) (Vehicle.km/yr) (A) Emission in
(a) ton /year(A*a)
Four stroke 27004 0.0016 (27004*43,800) 1892.44
diesel vehicle
Four stroke petrol 155749 0.0001 (155749*14,600) 227.39

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 vehicle
Two stroke 140050 0.0001 (140050*10,950) 153.35
engine vehicle
Source: BRTA (Bangladesh Road Transport Authority-2003), AQMP (Air Quality
Monitoring Project, Dhaka-2005)

CNG conversion cost (i,e incorporating of CNG kit) (equipment cost) of various motor
vehicles are calculated from below tables.

Table 3: Cost of CNG Conversion engine and Four Stroke conversion per vehicle

Type of Four Stroke Petrol Four Stroke Diesel Two Stroke

Conversion Engine Vehicle(Unit Engine Vehicle (Unit Engine
Price in US$) Price in US$) Vehicle(Unit Price
in US$)
CNG US$ 735 US$ 10,000
Conversion
Four stroke US$ 322
Conversion

Source: slate.newagebd.com / greencarcongress.com

According to table-2 and table-3 CNG conversion cost of two stroke vehicles for the first year
is US$ 123.89 million and for the second year is US$ 78.79 million.

There are about 155749 four stroke petrol vehicle in Dhaka city. Their total emission is 227
ton of PM10 per year. To remove this emission CNG conversion of four stroke petrol vehicles

15
is suggested. CNG conversion cost for the first year is US$ 202.08 million and for the second
year is US$ 87.61 million.

There about 27004 four stroke diesel vehicles in Dhaka city. Their total emission is 1892 ton
per year. It is seen that diesel emission is largest among all sources (38% of the total
emission). To remove this huge amount of PM10 emission CNG conversion is suggested.
Cost calculation is given below:

* Conversion of two stroke engine into four stroke engine vehicle:

i) Cost of two stroke engine into four stroke engine = US$ 322 * Total Two two
stroke vehicle in Dhaka city = US$ 322 * 140050 = US$ 45.1 Million
ii) CNG cost of 140050 four stroke vehicle = 140050 * 15 m3 *300 * 8.5 = US$
78.79 Million

Total cost = 45.1 +78.79 = US$ 123.89 Million

* CNG Conversion of Four Stroke Petrol Engine:

i) Cost of incorporating CNG Kit to the four stroke petrol engine

= US$ 735 * Total four stroke petrol engine in Dhaka city

= US$ 735 * 155749 = US$ 114.47 Million

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 ii) cost of 155749 petrol engine vehicle = 155749 * 15m3 CNG *300 * 8.5 =
US$ 87.61 Million

Total cost = 114. 47 + 87.61 = US$ 202.08 Million

* CNG Conversion of Diesel Engine Vehicle :

i) Cost of incorporating CNG Kit to the diesel engine vehicle

= US$ 10,000 * Total diesel engine vehicle in Dhaka city

= US$ 10,000 * 27004 = US$ 270.04 Million

ii) Cost of CNG of 27004 diesel vehicle = 27004 * 100 m3 *300 * 8.5 = US$
101.26 Million

Total cost = 270 .04 + 101.26 = US$ 371.30 Million

Total cost of CNG conversion for the first year is US$ 371.30 million and for the second year
is US$ 101.26 million.

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2.5 Brick kilns emission:

However emission of brick kilns is estimated from the emission factor of biomass burning,
coal burning and oil burning (Table-3). Total emission for the first year is 623 ton. To remove
this emission from brick kilns using of CNG for firing is suggested instead of wood and coal.
To use CNG in brick kilns two types of cost associated. Development of infrastructure
( linking roads, CNG pipelines etc) (equipment cost) cost and CNG cost (running cost). Cost
calculation is given below:

3,200 brick kilns produce 1375 million bricks (Chemical Engineering, BUET, 2002)
Coal consumption/brick = 0.3kg/brick
Total coal consumption = 1375 *106 *0.3 = 412500000 kg = 412500 tons
147 kg of coal = 220 m3 CNG
Total CNG = 220*412500000/147 = 617.35 *106 m3
1 m3 CNG costs = Taka 8.5

i) Total cost of fuel ( CNG) = 617.35 *106 m3 *8.5 = US$ 77.168 million
But for 4000 brick kilns around Dhaka city will cost = US$ 96.46 million

ii) Cost of infrastructure i,e link road , CNG pipe line = Taka 799850 *4000 = US$ 47.05
million

Total = US$ 96.46 million + US$ 47.05 million = US$ 143.51 million
Total cost for the first year is US$ 143.51 million and for the second year is US$ 96.46
million.

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Table-4: Summary of gaseous and particulate emission factor

Particulates CO HC NOx CO2

(g kg−1) (g kg−1) (g kg−1) (g kg−1) (g kg−1)

Grass 1.5 41.7 3.2 2.2 322.4

Leaves 32.3 70.7 2.4 3.0 1064.6

Twigs 4.3 70.9 0.2 4.6 897.3

Leaves and twigs

2.2 42.8 11.4 2.8 1403.3
(1:1)

Grass, leaves and

4.4 57.3 1.8 1.7 456.2
twigs (1:1:1)
Source: (G. Kamalak Kannan, Minakshi Gupta et. al. 2004)

2.6 Industry emission:

Most of the industrial areas of Dhaka city is located at Tejgaon, Tongi, Kanchpur,
Hazaribagh, and Demra. In Tejgaon industrial area of Dhaka, there are chemical industries,
biscuit industries, ice cream factory and heavy metal industries. Tanneries industries are
located in Hazaribagh. Many of those industries use CNG as fuel in Dhaka city but some of
the industries still use coal, oil and biomass as fuel which emits particulate matters. Emission
of PM10 is estimated from emission factor of particulate matter from oil, coal and biomass
(Table-5 and 6). Total emission of industry is 735 ton. So, this study proposes to use CNG in
every industry of Dhaka city to reduce this emission to the standard level. This will also
include two types of cost like brick kilns- one is CNG pipe line and infrastructure cost
(equipment cost) and CNG fuel cost (running cost). Cost calculation is given below:

i) Coal consumption for Dhaka city (12.15 *0.34) = 4.13 PJ (world environment day
2005::SDNP Bangladesh)
Calorific value of coal = 21 MJ/Kg
Amount of coal = 4.13*1015/21*106 = 19.67*107 kg

19
We know 147 kg of coal = 220 m3 CNG

Amount of CNG = 220*19.67*107/147 = 29.44*107 m3 CNG

So, cost to replace coal by CNG = Taka 29.44*107 m3 CNG *8.5 = US$ 36.8 million

ii) Oil consumption for Dhaka = 11.43*0.34 = 3.88 PJ

Calorific value of oil = 44 MJ/Kg
Amount of oil = 3.88*10 15/44*10 6 = 8.82*107 kg
We know 230 kg of oil = 400 kg of coal
Amount of coal = 400*8.82*107/230 = 15.34*107 kg of coal

147 kg of coal = 220 m3 CNG

Amount of CNG = 220*15.34*107/147 = 22.96*107 m3 CNG
Therefore cost to replace oil by CNG = Taka 22.96*107 m3 *8.5 = US$ 28.70
Million

iii) Biomass consumption for Dhaka city = 118*0.34 = 40.12 PJ

Calorific value of biomass = 16 MJ/kg
Amount of biomass = 40.12*1015/16*106 = 2.51*109 kg

18.5% of total biomass is used in industries (M. Jashimuddin, et. al, 2006)

So, biomass used by industries = 2.51*109 kg *0.185 = 502*106 kg

Biomass and coal are about to equal in calorific value.

So, 147 kg of coal = 220 m3 CNG

Amount of CNG to replace biomass = 220*502*106/147 = 751.29*106 m3 CNG

So, cost to replace biomass = Taka 751.29*106 m3 *8.5 = US$ 94 million

20
 iv) NG consumption in Dhaka = 40.62*0.34 = 13.81 PJ

Calorific value of NG = 55MJ/kg

Therefore amount of CNG = 13.81*1015/55*106 = 2.51*108 kg

We know 1m3 NG = 0.668 kg

So, I kg CNG = 1.5 m3

Amount of CNG =( 2.51*108*1.5) m3

Total cost = Taka 8.5 * 2.51*108*1.5 = US$ 47.06 million

Total cost to use CNG in industries as fuel = 36.8 + 28.70+94+47.06 = US$ 206.56 million

The cost for the first year is US$ 206.56 million and for the second year is US$ 47.06 million.
Percentage emission of these five sources are shown in fig.6.

21
Table-5: Uncontrolled emission factor for PM and PM10 from bituminous and sub-
bituminous coal combustion

22
Table-6 Emission factor for LPG combustion

Fig.6 Percentage of emission in ton from various sources.

23
CHAPTER 3
EXPERIMENTAL AND MODELING APPROACH
3.1 DATA PREPARATION
This study has attempted to estimate optimum cost of air pollution (PM10) based on
Linear Programming (LP) method and then compare the cost with health cost. For this
purpose at first PM10 emission sources of Dhaka city are identified and emission data are
collected from various organizations of Dhaka city and various research papers and
website. A Continuous Air Quality Monitoring Station (CAMS) has been established in
Dhaka city, at the campus of the Parliament House (Sangsad Bhaban), and is operational
since April 2002. Six criteria pollutants namely, PM10 and PM2.5 NOx, S02, O3 and CO
have been monitoring in the CAMS. Uncontrolled emissions from motor vehicles and
other economic activities give rise to air and other forms of pollution. High levels of
emission of air pollutants in a small area exceed the processes of dilution and dispersal,
leading to severe episodes of ambient air pollution. Fairly comprehensive air quality data
are being collected for Dhaka nowadays (AQMP (2002- 04) and Biswas et al (2001,
2004)). The summary of air quality data for Dhaka obtained at the Continuous Air
Monitoring Station (CAMS)
. Table.7 Average values for Criteria Pollutants Measured at CAMS, Dhaka
during 2003 along with Bangladesh Standards (Source-AQMP (2002-04).

24
Sources of emission , total motor vehicle data, data of emission factor, data about re-
suspended soil dust , construction dust and brick kilns data are obtained from AQMP
(Air Quality Management Project, Dhaka), BRTA (Bangladesh Road Transport
Authority), DOE ( Directorate of Environment) , SOS (Save Our Soul) and from so many
other website and research papers. According to AQMP there are about 322,803 motor
vehicle plying in the Dhaka city.

3.2 MODELING APPROACH3

As it is earlier mentioned that this research will estimate air pollution ( PM10)
cost and minimize this cost . For minimization of cost Linear Programming (LP) is a
appropriate method. For this purpose a cost function (objective function) is established
subjected to constraint equations. This study already has total seven emission sources
(motor vehicles splitted into three categories) and total eight options (variables) to
remove PM10 to standard level. Each option has total emission in ton and total cost in US
million dollars to remove that emission. So, it is easy to calculate cost of unit ton to
remove (Table-8).
2
Table-8: Cost of removal unit ton of PM10 by using the following technology (for first
year)
System/Technology used Possible total Possible Unit Cost (Million
for removal PM10 Cost of the maximum US$) (to remove
method Amount of per ton PM10) (yj)
(Million US$) PM10 removed
(in ton/yr)
Street Sweeping machines 99.59 920 0.1083
for cleaning road dust (x1)
Watering and broom in 15.21 80 0.1901
gutter area of street (x2)
CNG conversion of four 202.08 227 0.8902
stroke petrol vehicles (x4)
CNG conversion of diesel 371.30 1892 0.1962
vehicles (x5)

25
Conversion of two stroke 123.89 153 0.8097
engine into four stroke
CNG engine (x6)
Cleaning of construction 175.2 400 0.438
dust by vacuum cleaner
and others (x3)
Using CNG in brick kiln 143.51 623 0.2303
for firing (x7)
Using CNG fuel in 206.56 735 0.281
industries
( x8)
Total 1337.34 5030

3.3 FORMULATION OF COST FUNCTION3

Let x i (i = 1,2,3.4………) is PM10 in tons to be removed by using the Method/

technology

So, total cost T = ∑( xi* yj) Where yj (j= 1,2,3……) is cost of per ton PM10 removal
So Cost Function T = x1y1 + x2y2 +x3y3+…

Table-9 Total PM10 (in ton) removal by applying various methods/technologies ( for first
years)

Source of Methods/Technologies used to remove PM10

Street Watering CNG CNG Conversion Cleaning of Using Using
PM10
sweeping and to conversion Conversion of two Construction CNG CNG
machines broom in of four of four stroke dust by as in
gutter stroke stoke diesel petrol vacuum firing industry
(Xij)
area in petrol vehicle (4) vehicle cleaners and in as fuel

26
 street (2) vehicle (3) into four others(6) brick (8)
i =1 stroke kilns(7)
CNG (5)
Re- x11 x21
suspended
soil dust
(j=1)
Construction x62
dust(2)
Four stroke
petrol X33
vehicles(3)
Four stroke x44
diesel
vehicles(4)
Two stroke
engine X55
vehicles(5)
Brick
kilns(6) X76
Industries
(7) X87

,2,3……) is cost of per ton PM10 removal

So Cost Function T = x1y1 + x2y2 +x3y3+…

So, Cost Function for first year T1 = 0.1083x1 +0.1901x2 +0.438x3 + 0.8902x4 +0.1962x5
+0.8097x6+0.2303x7+0.281x8

27
Subject to Constraint Equations :-
1.Re-suspended soil dust:- x1 +x2 ≤ 1000

2. Construction dust : x3 ≤ 400

3. Two Stroke Engine:- x6 ≤ 153

4. Four stroke petrol Vehicles:- x4 ≤ 227

5. Four stroke diesel vehicles:- x5 ≤ 1892

6.Brick Kilns :- x7 ≤ 623

7.Industry :- x8 ≤ 735

8.Total Emission: x1+x2+x3+x4+x5+x6+x7+x8 ≥ (5030x0.64)

x1, x2,x3, x4, x5, x6,x7,x8 ≥ 0

Solution found ( x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, x8)
( 1000, 0 ,0 , 0 , 1892, 0 , 327.2, 0,)

So ,Total minimum cost for first year T1 = US$ 554.86 million

28
Table-10 Cost of removal unit ton of PM10 by using the following technology ( for
second year)
tt

System/Technology used Possible total Possible Unit Cost (Million

for removal PM10 Cost of the maximum US$) (to remove
method Amount of PM10 per ton PM10) (yj)
(Million US$) removed (in
ton/yr)
Street Sweeping machines 0.35 920 0.0003
for cleaning road dust (x9)
Watering and broom in 14.97 80 0.1871
gutter area of street (x10)
CNG conversion of four 202.08 227 0.8902
stroke petrol vehicles (x12)
CNG conversion of diesel 101.26 Already removed
vehicles
Conversion of two stroke 123.89 153 0.8097
engine into four stroke
CNG engine (x13)
Cleaning of construction 175.2 400 0.438
dust by vacuum cleaner
and others (x11)
Using CNG in brick kiln 68.59 295.8(52.5% 0.232
for firing (x14) removed)

29
Using CNG fuel in 206.56 735 0.281
industries (x15)
Total 892.9 2810.8

Table-11 Total PM10 (in ton) removal by applying various methods/technologies ( for
second years)

Source of Methods/Technologies used to remove PM10

Street Watering CNG CNG Conversion Cleaning of Using Using
PM10
sweeping and to conversion Conversion of two Construction CNG CNG
machines broom in of four of four stroke dust by as in
(1) gutter stroke stoke diesel petrol vacuum firing industry
area in petrol vehicle (4). vehicle cleaner (6) in (8)
(Xij)
street (2) vehicle (3) into four brick
i= stroke kilns(7)
CNG (5)

30
Re- x11 x21
suspended
soil dust
(j=1)
Construction x62
dust(2)
Four stroke
petrol x33
vehicles(3)
Four stroke
diesel
vehicles(4)
Two stroke
engine x55
vehicles(5)
Brick
kilns(6) x76
Industries
(7) x87

31
Cost function for second year T2 = 101.26 + 96.46*0.525 + 0.0003x9 +0.1871x10 +
0.438x11 + 0.8902x12 + 0.8097x13 +0.2303x14 +0.281x15

Subjected to Constraint Equations:

1.Re-suspended soil dust:- x9 + x10 ≤ 1000

2. Construction dust : x11 ≤ 400

3. Two Stroke Engine:- x13 ≤ 153

4. Four stroke petrol Vehicles: x12 ≤ 227

5.Brick Kilns : x14 ≤ 295.8

6.Industry : x15 ≤ 735

7. Total emission: x9+x10+x11+x12+x13+x14+x15 ≥(2810.8- 1810.8)

x9,x10,x11,x12,x13,x14,x15 ≥ 0

Solution found ( x9, x10, x11,x12, x13, x14, x15)

(1000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 ,0 )

So, Total minimum cost for second year T2 = US$ 152.2 million

32
CHAPTER 4

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

4.1RESULT AND DISCUSSION

For air pollution cost minimization a linear programming is formulated consisting of a

cost function for multi-year (two years). Multi-year (two years) is considered because
once all the sources are equipped with CNG from next year there is no equipment cost. It
will be needed only running cost from next year. For this purpose objective function for

33
five PM10 emission sources and eight variables (methods / technologies) are set to solve
the linear programming (LP).

From linear programming (LP) method it is showed that air pollution (PM10) cost is
US$ 353.53 million per year whereas health cost for Dhaka city is US$ 1820 million per
year. So, air pollution cost is about one fifth of health cost. From the model following
results are also achieved:

• 64% of total PM10 is reduced in Dhaka city which leads to achieve Bangladesh
national standard level (50µg/m3, annual average)

• The annual saving from reduction of PM10 to proposed national standard is US$
1466.47 million which is equivalent to 2.4% of national GDP

• 64% of PM10 reduction (i, e reduced to the proposed Bangladesh national

standard) will save 1,213 deaths annually (Murshid and Shimada et.al. 2004)

Air pollution (PM10) control measure is a preventive method. If the PM10 pollution can
be prevented , respective health damages(Asthma , chronic bronchitis and other
respiratory disease) would be reduced considerably . So, in the light of this study
government should pick up this preventive measure rather than to invest in mitigative
method like respective health care and can save US$ 1149.74 million per year. The
World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that about 700,000 deaths annually could
be prevented in developing countries if three major atmospheric pollutants - carbon
monoxide, suspended particulate matter, and lead - were brought down to safer levels.
Among the pollutants, particulate composed of fully dispersed liquids and solids
including soot, dust, and organic and inorganic substances are the most harmful one. It is

34
emitted into the atmosphere from various activity sources, such as transportation, fuel
combustion, industrial process and solid waste disposal.

A number of studies show a strong evidence of the relationship between particulate

matter less than 10 µg (PM10) and premature death as well as disease. The associated
costs are also estimated to be very large. For example, in Mexico City, such economic
damages due to air pollution are estimated at $1.5 billion per year. In Jakarta, 14,000
deaths, which is about 2 percent of annual deaths in the cities, could be avoided every
year if particulates could be kept at the level recommended by WHO (Ostro, 1994).

4.2 RAPID URBANIZATION- A CAUSE OF RAPID AIR POLLUTION (PM10)

Urbanization is an inherent part of the process of economic development in Bangladesh,

and its rate can be indicated by the large population growth in urban areas. In 1981 the
total population in urban areas was 14.08 million, which increased to 22.45 million in
1991. Now in 2006 it is about 42 million. With increased urbanization, the number of
vehicles is also increasing rapidly, and contributing to more and more air pollution
(PM10). The major urban centers in the country are the metropolitan cities of Dhaka,
Rajshahi, Khulna and Chittagong. Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh is one of the most
densely populated cities in the world. This is the center for the major economic and
commercial activities, too. In the urban areas ambient air quality is dependent on many
factors like air movement, traffic volume, traffic congestion, emissions from motor
vehicles, and re-suspended dust particles. Various other activities related to the extremely
high population density also result in severe air and other forms of pollution. The salient
parameters of air pollution are particulate matter , sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides,

35
hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, lead, ozone and other gases. Aircrafts, railway engines,
power plants, open burning incineration, solid waste disposal sites, and dust particles also
contribute to increase PM10. Dust pollution due to road diggings, constructions and other
development activities further aggravate the PM10 pollution in cities. In order to
accommodate the growing population, the construction of multi-storied buildings is
increasing rapidly. Along with these buildings, the number of slums are also increasing.
The tremendous pressure of population has made it almost impossible to maintain a clean
environment in the capital city of Dhaka.

Table.10 Pressures, State, Impacts, and responses to air pollution

36
37
CHAPTER 5

ASSESMENT OF HEALTH ESTIMATION DUE TO PM10 EXPOSURE

5.1 ESTIMATING OF HEALTH COST

Health cost on Dhaka city due to PM10 exposure is already estimated. One of the latest
studies ( A.K. Azad, et. al ,2003) shows that valuation of health cost is Taka 124.184
billion per year which equals to US$ 1820 million per year. This paper (A.K. Azad, et.
al ,2003) estimated health cost considering all kind of exposures, risk assessment for
mortality. But at the same time, the number of occurrences of respiratory and other
diseases and weakness (chronic bronchitis, emergency room visits, asthma attacks,
restricted activity days etc.) are estimated following Ostro (1994). Thus risk assessment
for morbidity is also conducted. Finally these impacts of both mortality and morbidity are
evaluated in monetary value.

Exposure Assessment
In this study, the exposed population are placed into three classes:
• High exposure population include drivers, traffic polices and street venders.
• Moderate exposure population include the commuters who exchange daily.
• The rest of the people are averagely exposed.

38
This paper also estimated morbidity and finally calculated total cost.

Morbidity:
a) Restricted activity days: Ostro (1994) calculations of 20% workers (valued at an
average wage), and 80% lower
productivity (valued at one-third of average wage) were used. The average wage is
about Taka 150 per day.
Therefore, the estimate is thus: 0.20 * 150 + 150 * 1/3 * 0.80 = 70 Taka.

b) Emergency room visit: Private hospital charge Taka 100 to 150 for an
emergency room visit. This includes the
doctor's bill and medicine. To this added the cost of the loss of one work-day (Taka
150), cost of transport (2*Taka 50).
Therefore, the estimate is 2 * 50 + 150 + (100 to 150)
= 350 to 400 Taka.

d) Respiratory symptoms day: No surveys on willingness to pay to prevent a

respiratory symptom day have been
carried out in Bangladesh. Therefore it is difficult to make a reliable valuation.
Considering the valuation in Jakarta (US $2), Bangladesh's lower per capita income
and the restricted activity days valuation above an estimate of Taka 50 seems
appropriate.

d) Asthma attack: A severe asthma attack lasts on an average 9.1 days. The daily
hospital fees in private hospitals are
about Taka 1000; to this we add 9.1 lost working days.
Therefore, the total for a severe attack is 9.1 * (1000 + 150)
= Taka 10,465
For a milder attack, the same figure as for an emergency room visits (Taka 350 to
400) could be used. For still milder attack only the medicine costs apply; aerosols and
tablets cost approximately Taka 300. Depending on the severity, the cost of an asthma

39
 attack can range from Taka 300 to 10,465. Considering that milder attacks are more
frequent, the average valuation is estimated at Taka 1500 per attack.

e) Respiratory hospital admission: The valuation is the same as for a severe

asthma attack, Taka 10,465.

f) Chronic Bronchitis : It is estimated that the number of work loss days per year
are 50, workdays lost at Taka 150 per day, resulting in Taka 1,09,825, if
discounted at 5%. To this we add the costs of hospital visits, which are estimated
at 0.5 times per year. Such a visit would average 13.1 day at at fee of Taka 1500
per day. Discounted at 5%, the total hospital costs amount to Taka 1,43,867.
Finally yearly expenditure on medication is about Taka 1500. Totaling a
discounted amount of Taka 22,000 over 27 years, the valuation of a case of
chronic bronchitis is
= (1,09,825 + 1,43,867 + 22,000) Taka
= 2,75,690 Taka.

5.2 Risk Assessment of PM10

Table 1 shows mortality and morbidity resulting from exposure to PM10 in the year 2002.
WB study showed that the excess death was 11,158 and total morbidity was 31,56,26,126
and this study findings are 10,350 and 22,25,40,849, respectively, which are slightly
lower than the WB estimation. A number of reasons may, however, be responsible for
this nonconformance.

40
Table 1: Mortality and morbidity from exposure to PM10.
Case Items High Exposure Moderate Average Total
Exposure Exposure
Mortality Excess death 2640 2459 5252 10,350
Chronic
18,984 17,687 37,753 74,424
bronchitis
Restricted
1,78,36,015 1,66,17,492 3,54,70,530 6,99,24,038
activity days
Respiratory
hospital 3,723 3,468 7,403 14,594
diseases
Emergency
Morbidity 73,019 68,031 1,45,213 2,86,263
Room visits
Asthma attacks 7,07,857 6,59,497 14,07,717 27,75,071
Respiratory
5,67,65,056 5,28,86,975 11,28,88,818 22,25,40,849
symptoms days

41
5.3 Economic Valuation of Health Effects

Table 2: Valuation of health impacts due to the effects of PM10

Case Items Total exposureSpecific Costs Taka Total Costs (Million
Taka)
7.50 million (US WTP) 77625
Mortality Excess death 10,350
5,49000 (lost salary) 5589
Chronic
74,424 2,75,690 20518
bronchitis
Restricted activity
Morbidity 6,99,24,038 70 4895
days
Respiratory
14,594 10465 153
hospital diseases
Emergency room
2,86,263 350 – 400 114
visits
Asthma attacks 27,75,071 1500 4163
Respiratory
22,25,40,849 50 11127
symptoms days
22,53,64,69,23
Total 124184
0

In Table 2, the valuation of health impacts due to PM10 is shown. The variation in cost
with different type of health impacts is shown in Figure 2. It has been found that about
83214 million Taka comes as the total costs for excess death case, 20518 million Taka as
cost of chronic bronchitis, 4895 million Taka as cost of restricted activity days, 153
million Taka as cost of respiratory hospital disease, 114 million Taka as cost of
emergency room visits, 4163 million Taka as cost of asthma attacks, 11127 million Taka
as cost of respiratory symptom days. Thus the total cost comes out to be 124 billion Taka,
which shows a tremendous loss potential on our country. And the massive impact seems
to come out from excess death.

42
43
CHAPTER 6

RECOMMENDATION AND FUTURE SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH

6.1 LIMITATION, RECOMMENDATION AND FUTURE SCOPE

During this research no action is taken about old engine vehicles. Old engine vehicles
(older than 10 years) are more polluting than new engine vehicles. In this study it is said
that all motor vehicles, brick kilns and industries will use CNG as fuel. So all the
demands of natural gas may not be meet up from only domestic source although it seems
at present that all demand can be fulfilled according to present reserve and exploration of
natural gas. But after several years government may have to import natural gas which
will create pressure on economy. Besides to maintain a continuous supply of CNG to all
sector it needs to establish so many CNG stations. But at present Dhaka city has a few
number of CNG station. In this research it is not considered traffic congestion in
mathematical model. Traffic congestion is one of the main cause of air pollution (PM10)
and Dhaka is a huge traffic congestion city. The presence of very low speed non-

44
motorized vehicles (mainly rickshaws) with a maximum speed of 10 km/hour, and their
interaction with motorized traffic presents a very special traffic problem. Rickshaws
cannot be removed due to socio-economic constraints. Hence, creative measures are
needed to limit the impact of non-motorized traffic. Some of these have already been
tried sporadically, on a limited scale, but what is needed is a long-term commitment, and
substantially scaled-up operations. A suggested measure for Dhaka city is that non-
motorized traffic is restricted from arterial roads, with some exceptions for the circulation
of such traffic. The exceptions would consist of non-interactive special lanes and
crossings, to maintain non-motorized flow between different regions. Some expected
effects from this measure that will reduce pollution would be that traffic flow-speed will
increase, and fuel consumption will be reduced for the same vehicle-miles traveled.
Banning of old engine vehicles and excluding this vehicles from calculation-a suggestion
for future modification of this research. PM 10 emission from traffic congestion should
also be included in mathematical model.

6.2 RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE AIR QUALITY IN DHAKA

The estimation shows that diesel vehicles are the main cause of severe air pollution in
Dhaka city and the industries, brick field , re-suspended soil dust follow to those.
Besides frequently use of two stroke engine vehicles, import of old engine vehicles, poor
fuel quality, inadequate maintenance of vehicles and absence of proper traffic planning
are responsible for the air pollution problem in Dhaka.

45
• Conversion of two stroke engine into four stroke design and incorporating timed
fuel injection and crankcase lubrication for better combustion
• Using CNG(Compressed Natural Gas) in all kinds of motor vehicles in Dhaka
city instead of using conventional gasoline and diesel fuel. For this the engine of
the vehicles must have CNG converted . At this 99% of the PM10 emission will
be reduced.
• To control Municipal road dust and construction dust have both preventive and
mitigative option. Mitigative option involve removal of road surface dust and
deicing materials. For this purpose street sweeping technology should be
applied . A vacuum-Assisted street sweeper Machine cost USD 200,000. It picks
up fine grained sediment, road dust, road salt and other debris. As a preventive
option all types of construction works may be tried to do in rainy season. Because
it is seen that average PM10 load reduces substantially during the high rainfall
period.
• Using CNG as fuel in all industries and brick kilns instead of oil, coal and
biomass.
• Setting of CNG filling station in Dhaka city. Government has already planned to
set up 61 CNG filling station (4 station already existing, 6 under construction, 30
site identified, 21 site not yet decided)
• Improving of traffic management so that traffic congestion may not occur at
various intersection points of road because vehicle idling pollute the air more.
• Introduction of ambient air quality standards and vehicle emission standard and
maintaining a continuous air monitoring station(CAMS) in Dhaka city
• Dumping and burning of refuse garbage should be away from Dhaka metropolitan
area
• .Banning on importing two stroke engine vehicle, old engine vehicle and their
spare parts.
• In Bangladesh Natural gas is abundantly available. Recent estimates by the US
Geological Survey reveals that the total resource reserve of natural gas is about 32
trillion cubic feet (TCF). Petrobangla estimates the recoverable natural gas

46
 reserves to be about 12 TCF. So, no thought of export natural gas without
fulfilling of all domestic demand

CHAPTER 7

7.1 CONCLUSION

The ultimate success of any decision is the extent to which it translates into action. It is
apparent from the discussion above that it is possible to reduce emissions from various
sources mentioned above to national standard if the model of the research is followed
although there are some limitations are associated. Old engine vehicles should be banned
from Dhaka city and its imports are also to be prohibited. Motor vehicles, especially two-
strokes engine vehicles are an increasingly important source of air pollution emissions in
Dhaka. Further understanding of the sources of air pollution, the contribution of vehicles
to air pollution emissions, and the characteristics of vehicular emission control measures
is necessary to design a cost effective action plan. It is recommended that government
will undertake actual measurement of emission factors, complete the emission inventory,
and conduct an investigation on emission control measures. A continuous monitoring
scheme is essential to evaluate air quality and for the development of any with the help of
development partners. However, the acuteness of the problems caused by air pollution,

47
and awareness campaigns organized by different mass media, have made the government
aware of the necessity of monitoring ambient air quality. In Dhaka city, there is only one
Continuous Air Quality Monitoring Camp (AQMP) at the campus of the Parliament
House (Sangsad Bhaban ). More air quality monitoring stations should be established in
vulnerable areas like Tejgaon, Farmgate, Gulshan , Mohakhli. DoE Should conducts
vehicular emission measurement some sensitive locations like Tejgaon, Farmgate, Manik
Mia Avenue, Gulshan, Lalmatia, and Agargaon. These areas represent industrial,
commercial, and residential areas of the city. The automobiles on the roads are often very
old, overloaded, and poorly maintained. Other old vehicles, including 40-year old trucks
and dilapidated mini-buses, are also plying the city streets emitting smokes and gases.
According to an assessment made by DoE, 90 per cent of the vehicles that ply Dhaka’s
streets daily are faulty, and emit smoke far exceeding the prescribed limit. Black smoke
which is primarily unburned fine carbon particles is emitted by diesel vehicles. So, if it is
possible to ban old engine vehicles, reduction of traffic congestion, good traffic
management , using of CNG instead of traditional fuel , PM10 pollution for Dhaka city
may be reduced to national standard level.

7.2 REFERENCES

48
1. Murshid and Shimada, Health and Economic Assessment of Air Pollution in Dhaka,
Bangladesh, the 2nd seminar of JSPS-VCC, Ritsumeikan University, Japan ,pp. 39-
53, 22-23 September 2005
2. A.K. Azad, J. Sultana and S. Jahan, An Economic Evaluation of Air Pollution in
Dhaka City, Proceeding of the International Conference on Chemical Engineering
Department, BUET, Dhaka Bangladesh, pp. 83-87 (2003)
3. G. Kamalak Kannan, Meenakshi Gupta and Jagdish Chandra Kapoor, Estimation of
gaseous products and particulate matter emission from garden biomass combustion
in a simulation fire test chamber, Centre for Fire, Explosive and Environment
Safety, Defence Research & Development Organisation, Timarpur, Delhi 110 054,
India
Received 17 March 2004; revised 16 August 2004; accepted 2 September 2004.
Available online 8 December 2004
4. Liquefied Petroleum Gas Combustion available online at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s05.pdf
5. Bituminous and Sub-bituminous Coal Combustion, available online at
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ch01/final/c01s01.pdf
6. Should I be a CNG convert?
available online at SLATE http://slate.newagebd.com/03.html

7. Pollution Prevention Fact Sheet: Parking Lot and Street Cleaning: Cost of Street
Sweeping Machine ,available online
http://www.stormwatercenter.net/Pollution_Prevention_Factsheets/ParkingLotandSt
reetCleaning.htm
8. NEW AGE Xtra Cover,high pressure, low price ,
available online at newagebd.com

9. AIR POLLUTION, available online at

http://www.moef.gov.bd/html/state_of_env/pdf/bangladesh_air.pdf,
10. From grim city to green city: Industry. Available online at
http://www.bdix.net/sdnbd_org/world_env_day/2005/bangladesh/industry/industry.htm

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11. Use Renewable Energy: National data ,available online at
http://www.sdnpbd.org/sdi/international_days/wed/2005/bangladesg/energy/data.htm
12. Calorific values of solid, liquid and gaseous fuels. Available online at
http://www.kayelaby.npl.co.uk/chemistry/3_11/3_11_4.html ,
13. Waste Mismanagement and Health Hazard in Dhaka city,available online at
http://www.bcas.net/Env.Features/HumanHealth/June2002/15%20to%2030.htm,
14. Vehicle population, utilization and fuel economy in Dhaka,
available online at http://www.angelfire.com/ak/medinet/dhakutp.html
15. Key Environment Issues, available online at
http://www.bcas.net/DhakaSoE/KeyEnvironmentalIssues.pdf

7.3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

At first I would like to express my deep gratitude to my academic supervisor professor

Dr. Toshihiro Kitada , Ecological Engineering Department, Toyohashi University of
Technology, for his continuous help and important guidance to this research. He inspired
me every moment to to study others respective papers and journal to improve the quality
and result of my research . Without his guidance and supervision , it was impossible to
complete the thesis. I want to thank Dr. Takayuki Tokairin, the research associate of
Kitada laboratory for his valuable help and suggestion in my research. I also wish to
express my appreciation to Mr. Asep Sofyan, the Ph.D candidate of Kitada laboratory for
his help in various aspect. I am also grateful to MEXT that provided me financial
support by giving Monbukagakusho scholarship and makes me proud in becoming
graduate from Japanese University.
EWand Economic Assessment o

50
 Evaluation of Optimum Set of Air Pollution (PM10) Control measures to Attain
Environmental Standard of Dhaka City with Minimized Cost : Comparison of The
Cost with It by Health Damage

Prepared by: Md. Salahuddin Sheikh

Advisor: Prof. Dr. Toshihiro Kitada

A thesis submitted as partial fulfillment

Of the requirement for the degree of

Master of Engineering

Md.
Department of Ecological Engineering
Toyohashi University of Technology
Toyohashi, Japan

November, 2007
Master Course
Student ID: 055808

51
 Department of Ecological Engineering (Kitada Laboratory)
Toyohashi University of Technology
Course
Student ID: 055808
Department of Ecological Engineering (Kitada Laboratory)
Toyohashi University of Technology

Economic Assessment of Air Pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Health and Economic Assessment of Air Pollution in Dhaka, Bangladesh
7REFERENCE7

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