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OFFICE
Quick Stats
Office q-o-q y-o-y
I N V E S TMENT
ECONOMY
OUTLOOK REMAINS UPBEAT Figure 1: Asia Pacific 2018 and 2019 GDP Forecast Growth (%, Y-o-Y)
8
2018F 2019F
7
Vietnam
Philippines
Japan
Indonesia
New Zealand
Korea
India
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Australia
Asia Pacific
Thailand
China
Malaysia
Singapore
Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
H O N G K O N G U N D E R R A T E H I K E P R E S S UR E
Bangkok
Seoul
HCMC
Shenzhen
Auckland
Adelaide
Canberra
Hanoi
Mumbai
Shanghai
Kuala Lumpur
Perth
Jakarta
Guangzhou
Beijing
Brisbane
Hong Kong
Bangalore
Singapore
Wellington
Melbourne
New Delhi
H2 01
H2 02
H2 04
H2 05
H2 06
H2 07
H2 08
H2 09
H2 10
H2 11
H2 12
H2 13
H2 14
H2 15
H2 16
H2 17
H2 03
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
200
175
150
R E N T S R E C O R D S L IG H T G R O W T H
125
100
75
50
2004 Q1
2008 Q1
2002 Q1
2003 Q1
2005 Q1
2006 Q1
2007 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
Rental Value Index Capital Value Index
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
3%
2%
1%
0%
HCMC Singapore Sydney Bangalore - New Delhi -
Outer Ring Road Noida
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
L E A S IN G D E M A N D G A I N S M O M E N T U M
Figure 7: Y-o-Y Growth in Retail Sales In Selected Markets
2017 2018 Q1
18%
15%
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
*Korea
Japan
*Australia
Hong Kong
China
*Singapore
Remarks: * indicates those y-o-y change in Jan and Feb combined
Source: Department of Statistics Singapore, National Bureau of Statistics of China, CEIC, 2018.
2017 2018 Q1
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Coffee and Specialist Luxury and Mid Range Value and Health and
Restaurants Clothing Business Fashion Denim Personal
Care
40
2020
35
2019
30
20
15
10
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Tokyo
Melbourne
Beijing
Jakarta
Brisbane
Adelaide
Bangkok
Guangzhou
Hanoi
Singapore
Taipei
Auckland
HCMC
New Delhi
Seoul
Mumbai
Sydney
Perth
Shenzhen
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
Figure 10: Asia Pacific Retail Rental and Capital Value Index
350
300
Index Q1 2003 = 100
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2016 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
Rental Value Index Capital Value Index
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Adelaide Sydney Guangzhou Singapore
60
50
30
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Note: CBRE tracks net absorption for selected major markets in Asia Pacific.
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
Figure 13: Logistics Vacancy Rate
24%
Q4 2017 Q1 2018
20%
16%
Vacancy Rate (%)
12%
8%
4%
0%
Note: CBRE tracks vacancy rate for selected major markets in Asia Pacific.
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
G R E A T E R C H I N A S U P P LY T I G H T E N S
Sydney*
Shenzhen
Greater Tokyo
Greater Seoul
Melbourne*
Shanghai
Perth*
Auckland*
Hong Kong
Brisbane*
Guangzhou
Singapore
Beijing
Note: Singapore records net supply; Australia reported pipeline of entire state
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
Figure 15: Asia Pacific Industrial Rental and Capital Value Index
225
C H I N A D R I V E S S O L ID R E N T A L G R O WT H 200
175
Index Q4 2005 = 100
150
125
100
75
2016 Q1
2007 Q1
2008 Q1
2009 Q1
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2015 Q1
2017 Q1
2018 Q1
Capital Value Index Rental Value Index
Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2018.
12%
9%
6%
3%
0%
Auckland
Canberra
Shanghai
Guangzhou
Beijing
I N V E S T O R A P P E T IT E R E M A I N S R O B U S T
Source: CBRE Research, RCA , Q1 2018; Transactions include deals above US$10 million in the Office, Retail, Mixed, Industrial, Hotel and Other commercial sectors.
Note: * Other SE Asia include Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
C R O S S - B O R D E R I N V E S T M E N T S L O WS
Figure 18: Cross-border Investment in Asia Pacific by Source of Capital
45
40
35
30
US$ billion
25
20
15
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
40
30
20
10
US$ billion
-10
-20
-30
-40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1 2018
Gross acquisitions Gross disposals Net acquisitions
Price
Market Property Name Sector Buyer Seller
(US$ mil)
Hong Kong 18 King Wah Road Office 1,271 A Chinese consortium Henderson Land
Samsung SRA Asset
Seoul K-Twin Towers Office 665 Vestas Investment Management
Management
Singapore Capitol Singapore (50% stake) Retail 390 Perennial and New Capitol Chesham Properties
LaSalle Investment
Shanghai Shanghai International Plaza Office 372 Alpha Asia Marco Trends Fund II
Management
Shanghai Neo Central Park Mixed 367 Gopher Asset Management Sunac
OUTLOOK
O F F IC E L O G I S T IC S
INVESTMENT
RETAIL
Rental Cycle
Figure 20: Asia Pacific Office Rental Cycle Q1 2018
Beijing
New Delhi
Auckland Bangkok Taipei
Shanghai Canberra Tokyo
Shenzhen Hong Kong
Brisbane Bangalore
Kuala Lumpur
Seoul Guangzhou Ho Chi Minh City
Jakarta Adelaide Hanoi
Perth Singapore Melbourne
Mumbai Sydney
Wellington
Guangzhou
Tokyo Seoul
Beijing Adelaide
Shanghai
Singapore Hong Kong Shenzhen
Chennai Bangkok
Perth Pune Melbourne Sydney
Brisbane Auckland
Wellington
Taipei
Mumbai
Singapore
Perth
Singapore
Hong Kong
Beijing Melbourne
Shanghai Auckland
Tokyo Sydney
Seoul
Singapore
Hong Kong
Table 4: Key Markets Indicative Grade A Office Rent and Overall Vacancy Rate
City Per local Grade A rent US$/sq. ft. per Q-o-Q change Y-o-Y change Vacancy
measurement local annum (%, local) (%, local) rate (%)
Beijing RMB sq. m. p.m. 487 120 -3.8 0.1 8.4
Shanghai RMB sq. m. p.m. 333 85 -0.2 -3.8 14.0
Guangzhou RMB sq. m. p.m. 178 46 1.5 6.5 7.2
Shenzhen RMB sq. m. p.m. 257 65 1.0 7.4 10.6
Hong Kong HK$ sq. ft. p.m. 71 108 1.6 3.2 5.5
Taipei NT$ ping p.m. 2,640 47 0.1 0.2 16.5
Tokyo JPY tsubo p.m. 36,500 108 0.1 1.5 2.3
Seoul – CBD KRW sq. m. p.m. 31,759 63 0.8 2.2 11.4
Seoul – Gangnam KRW sq. m. p.m. 27,196 55 0.9 2.1 7.3
Seoul – Yeouido KRW sq. m. p.m. 23,046 54 0.3 0.3 14.6
New Delhi – CBD INR sq. ft. p.m. 295 73 0.0 0.0 2.9
New Delhi – Gurgaon INR sq. ft. p.m. 99 28 0.0 2.1 24.3
Mumbai – Nariman Point INR sq. ft. p.m. 220 51 0.0 0.0 7.0
Mumbai – BKC INR sq. ft. p.m. 250 66 0.0 0.0 19.4
Bangalore - CBD INR sq. ft. p.m. 138 34 2.2 6.2 5.3
Singapore S$ sq. ft. p.m. 10 89 3.2 8.4 5.9
Bangkok CBD THB sq. m. p.m. 998 36 0.4 3.1 6.7
Ho Chi Minh City US$ sq. m. p.m. 40 44 3.6 7.3 6.0
Hanoi US$ sq. m. p.m. 31 34 0.3 4.5 7.3
Jakarta CBD IDR sq. m. p.m. 290,746 24 -0.2 -4.3 19.7
Kuala Lumpur MYR sq. ft. p.m. 7 21 0.0 0.0 17.6
Adelaide CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 268 19 -0.3 -2.2 16.2
Brisbane CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 365 26 0.0 -1.1 15.6
Canberra CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 268 19 -0.3 -0.7 11.3
Melbourne CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 425 30 2.4 15.0 4.6
Perth CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 268 19 -0.3 -10.7 19.8
Sydney CBD A$ sq. m. p.a. 717 51 3.9 11.7 4.6
Auckland CBD NZ$ sq. m. p.a. 394 27 0.2 0.9 6.6
Wellington CBD NZ$ sq. m. p.a. 326 22 0.8 5.4 7.4
Per local Average rent US$/sq. ft. per Q-o-Q change Y-o-Y change
City Type
measurement local annum (%, local) (%, local)
Hong Kong High Street HK$ sq. ft. p.m. 493 753 0.3 -2.2
Taipei High Street NT$ sq. m. p.m. 5,383 206 0.0 -2.0
Tokyo* High Street JPY tsubo p.m. 400,000 1,270 0.0 0.0
Ho Chi Minh City Shopping Centre US$ sq. m. p.m. 58 65 0.4 3.8
New Delhi Shopping Centre INR sq. ft. p.m. 1,250 153 0.0 0.0
New Delhi High Street INR sq. ft. p.m. 1,650 288 0.0 0.0
Mumbai Shopping Centre INR sq. ft. p.m. 750 111 0.0 0.0
Auckland High Street NZ$ sq. m. p.a. 4,500 303 0.0 0.0
Wellington High Street NZ$ sq. m. p.a. 2,668 179 -0.1 -0.5
* Prime Rent - The prime retail rents represent the typical “achievable” open market headline rent which an international retail chain would be expected to
pay for a ground floor retail unit (either high street or shopping centre depending on the market) of up to 200 sq. m. of the highest quality and
specification and in the best location in a given market. The quoted rents reflect the level at which relevant transactions are being completed in the market
at the time but need not be exactly identical to any of them, particularly if deal flow is very limited or made up of unusual one-off deals. In these
circumstances, the quoted figure will be more hypothetical, based on expert opinion of market conditions, but the same criteria on building size and
specification apply. The figures exclude any leasing incentives or “key money” (premium, or initial payment, to secure the right to occupy the unit).
Note: All markets measure the relative performance of retail properties of similar quality with the exception of Vietnam, which tracks the overall market movement.
Per local Average rent US$/sq. ft. per Q-o-Q change Y-o-Y change
City Type
measurement local annum (%, local) (%, local)
≠
Shanghai Logistics RMB sq. m. p.m. 45.3 8.0 4.5 4.6
≠
Guangzhou Logistics RMB sq. m. p.m. 36.1 6.4 1.5 1.5
Hong Kong Warehouse HK$ sq. ft. p.m. 12.3 18.8 0.2 -0.3
Greater Tokyo Logistics JPY tsubo p.m. 4,080 13.0 0.2 1.7
Prime Office Y-o-Y Change Prime Retail Y-o-Y Change Prime Industrial Y-o-Y Change
City
Yield (bps) Yield (bps) Yield (bps)
N o t es a n d D e f i n i ti ons
CBRE’s investment transaction data presented in this report is based on real estate transactions valued US$10 million and above. It included real estate
transactions reported in 25 major markets in 12 countries across Asia Pacific. It included office, industrial, retail, hotel and mixed-use properties. Development
site and residential transactions are excluded. Transactions prices are tracked in local currencies and converted to US dollars using exchange rates as recorded
on the last day of the respective quarters of the year.
The CBRE Asia Pacific Office Capital Value Index tracks the performance of 24 office markets throughout Asia Pacific.
The CBRE Asia Pacific Retail Capital Value Index tracks the performance of 15 retail markets throughout Asia Pacific.
The CBRE Asia Pacific Industrial / Logistics Capital Value Index tracks the performance of 14 industrial markets throughout Asia Pacific.
The CBRE Asia Pacific All Sectors Capital Value Index is the weighted average of three capital value indices for office, retail and industrial sectors.
The indicative prime yield presented in this report is the ratio between annual net rental income (rent less non-recoverable costs) and the total amount invested
(purchase price plus purchasers’ on-costs), expressed as a percentage figure, achievable in the relevant top-tier building(s) in prime location, let according to
market conditions. It is based both on sale & purchase contracts concluded during a period and also on the market overview of the local investment department.
No allowance is made for any future rental growth.
This report was prepared by the CBRE Asia Pacific Research Team, which forms part of CBRE Global Research – a network of preeminent researchers who
collaborate to provide real estate market research, econometric forecasting and consulting solutions to real estate investors and occupiers around the globe.
Disclaimer
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including
projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not
verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness
and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not
to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material
are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party
without prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for
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