FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia - November 2010

FOCUSECONOMICS
CONSENSUS FORECAST
Asia Contents
Summary .................................... 3
Calendar .................................. 1 4
China ........................................ 1 5
Hong Kong ............................... 2 6
India .......................................... 3 5
Indonesia ................................. 4 4
Korea ........................................ 5 3
Malaysia .................................. 6 3
Philippines ............................... 7 2
Singapore ................................ 8 1
Taiwan ..................................... 9 0
Thailand ................................... 9 9
Vietnam ................................. 109
Notes ....................................... 112
Order Form ............................. 113
November 2010
Publication date: 26 October 2010
Information available: up to and including 25 Oct. 2010
Forecasts collected: 19 - 22 October 2010
Next edition: 23 November 2010
Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Marcos Felipe Casarin

Chief Economist Senior Economist Economist
Ángel Talavera Gerardo Morán Joan Enric Domene

Senior Economist Senior Economist Economist
Keith Catlin Ricardo Aceves

Senior Economist Economist
© FocusEconomics 2010 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

ISSN 2013-4940 Phone: +34 932 651 040
Fax: +34 932 650 804
info@focus-economics.com
Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists www.focus-economics.com
FOCUSECONOMICS Summary November 2010
Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia
Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World 4.0 1.8 -1.9 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.9 2.6 2.6
United States 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.8 -0.4 1.6 1.4
Euro area 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.5 1.4 2.1 3.3 0.3 1.5 1.6
Asia 7.0 4.0 2.1 6.6 5.9 2.6 4.5 0.0 2.3 2.5
Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.9 1.4 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.3
Asia (ex Japan) 9.7 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 4.1 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6
China 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0
India 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5
Asean 6.6 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 3.9 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5
Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1
Malaysia 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6
Philippines 7.1 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0
Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1
Vietnam 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 8.3 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2
NIEs 5.8 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6
Hong Kong 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0
Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
Singapore 8.5 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 2.1 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5
Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5
Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, annual average variation in %
12 12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011

8
8
4
4
0
0
-4
-8 -4
World United Euro area Japan Asia (ex China India World United Euro area Japan Asia (ex China India
States Japan) States Japan)
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World -0.7 -2.3 -6.9 -6.4 -5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
United States -1.1 -3.2 -10.0 -9.3 -7.9 -5.1 -4.7 -2.7 -3.3 -3.5
Euro area -0.6 -2.0 -6.3 -6.4 -5.3 0.1 -1.7 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1
Asia -0.5 -2.7 -5.4 -4.9 -4.2 6.2 5.0 4.2 3.6 3.3
Japan -2.5 -5.8 -9.8 -9.1 -8.5 4.8 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.6
Asia (ex Japan) 0.6 -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 7.0 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1
China 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1
India -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5
Asean 0.3 -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 8.3 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5
Indonesia -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 2.6 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7
Malaysia -3.2 -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 15.7 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1
Philippines -0.2 -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0
Thailand -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7
Vietnam -1.8 -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1
NIEs 3.9 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 6.2 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2
Hong Kong 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 12.3 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3
Korea 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4
Singapore 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 27.6 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8
Taiwan -0.4 -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

Summary
Regional outlook improves
• Recent data from the third quarter confirm the notion that growth in
most Asian economies has begun to slow, as the favourable base
effect fades away.
• Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan

Asian growth this year by 0.1 percentage points for the second
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages consecutive month to the current 8.8% forecast. In 2011, panellists
see the regional economy growing 7.6%.
2000-04 2005-015 2010-14
GDP growth (%) 6.8 7.9 7.8
• Despite persistent upward price pressures, Consensus Forecast
Inflation (%) 2.3 3.4 3.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2.2 -1.0 -1.6 panellists have left their inflation estimates unchanged at last month’s
Current Account (% of GDP) 3.3 5.7 2.9 3.9% estimate. In 2011, regional inflation will moderate to an average
Note: Data refer to GDP-weighted Asian (ex Japan) average based on of 3.6%.
market exchange rates. For details see note at end of publication.
Keith Catlin
Senior Economist
Forecast Changes over last Month
Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast
Taiwan Indonesia
Philippines Singapore
Singapore Asean
Thailand Korea
NIEs NIEs
Asean Thailand
Hong Kong Hong Kong
Korea China
Vietnam Asia (ex Japan)
India Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) Taiwan
Malaysia India
Indonesia Philippines
China Vietnam
-0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5
Note: Change between November and October 2010 in percentage points. Note: Change between November and October2010 in percentage points.
Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast. Source: FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

Forecasts
Current Developments
2010 2011
Panellists raised their 2010 growth forecasts for most of the smaller counties while
GDP 8.8 ↑ 7.6 =
leaving the forecasts for the major economies unchanged.
Asia
Despite upward price pressures in the two largest economies in the region, China
and India, panellists left their forecasts for both countries unchanged over last Inflation 3.9 = 3.6 =
month's estimates for this year and next.
On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected

vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus cementing his position as
Hu Jintao’s likely successor, once Hu steps down from the presidency in 2013.
GDP 9.9 = 8.9 =
Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year, as a result of a
China
higher base effect as well as concerted government policies aimed at slowing
growth.
Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Inflation 3.1 = 3.0 ↓
Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to

fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector corroborate this notion, as GDP 5.9 ↑ 4.5 =
Hong Kong retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the same month last year.
Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. Inflation 2.7 = 3.0 ↓
The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn harvest this
year, with government estimates projecting it to be approximately 10% larger than
GDP 8.3 = 8.4 =
the previous year. The good harvest bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is
India an important sector.
Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending

Inflation 8.1 ↓ 5.5 =
the downward trend in place since May.
Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to point towards
sustained growth in domestic demand in the third quarter. Moreover, the robust
GDP 6.0 = 6.2 ↑
domestic sector along with a low dependence on external demand would shield
Indonesia
the country in the event of a global economic deceleration.
Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six months. Inflation 5.1 ↑ 6.1 ↑
Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid slowing
industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence continues to slide, suggesting GDP 6.0 = 4.2 =
weaker private consumption in the months ahead.
Korea
Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Nevertheless,
monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates unchanged at Inflation 2.8 ↑ 3.0 ↓
2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected the Bank to raise rates.
On 15 October, the government unveiled its 2011 budget, targeting a fiscal deficit
of 5.4% of GDP, only a notch below this year’s 5.6% target. The budget was well
received by the markets, despite delaying the fiscal consolidation measures GDP 7.1 = 5.2 =
needed to achieve the government’s objective of cutting the deficit to 3.0% by
Malaysia
2015.
Inflation decelerated to 1.8% in September, finally breaking the upward trend in

Inflation 1.9 = 2.6 =
place since the beginning of the year.
Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third quarter.
However, merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust pace, expanding at a
double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month in August. In addition, overseas
GDP 6.6 ↑ 5.1 ↑
Filipino workers’ remittances, which account for more than 10% of GDP, were
Philippines
9.8% higher than in the same month last year, which should buttress private
consumption in the months ahead.
In September, inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in August. Inflation 4.2 ↓ 4.0 =

Forecasts
Current Developments (continued)
2010 2011
In the third quarter, economic growth slowed to 10.3% from 19.6% annual growth
in the second quarter. The deceleration reflected a slowdown in manufacturing,
due to the characteristic volatility of the pharmaceutical sector. As a result of the GDP 13.7 ↑ 4.9 ↓
Singapore strong economic activity, monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14
October, which was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures.
Annual inflation jumped from 3.3% to 3.7% in September. Inflation 2.8 = 2.5 =
Economic growth is likely to remain solid, as rising payrolls should buttress

domestic demand. In addition, exports remain robust but are decelerating amid a GDP 8.3 ↑ 4.2 =
Taiwan less favourable comparison base.
Inflation bounced back from minus 0.5% in August to 0.3% in September. Inflation 1.2 = 1.5 ↓
Industrial manufacturing increased 8.7% in August, returning to single-digit growth

for the first time in eight months. Moreover, the resilient export growth may fade, as GDP 7.4 ↑ 4.4 =
the currency continues to appreciate and external demand slumps.
Thailand
Inflation fell to 3.0% in September from 3.3% in August, prompting the Central
Inflation 3.3 = 3.1 ↑
Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October meeting.
Industrial output expanded 15.1% annually in September, supported by healthy

domestic demand and strong exports. Meanwhile, despite recent drops in unofficial
exchange rate rates, Governor Nguyen Van Giau has stated that the State Bank GDP 6.6 ↑ 6.9 ↑
Vietnam does not plan further exchange rate adjustments following on August’s
devaluation.
Inflation rose from 8.9% in September to 9.7% in October. Inflation 9.6 ↓ 8.2 ↓

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
China
Hong Kong 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
Asia (ex Japan)
India 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.4 8.6 8.5 8.5
India
Indonesia 6.0 4.5 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.5
Korea 2.3 0.2 6.0 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.0 Taiwan
Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.5 Asean

Philippines 3.7 1.1 6.6 5.1 5.4 4.9 4.7 NIEs
Singapore 1.8 -1.3 13.7 4.9 5.3 4.8 4.6 Thailand
Taiwan 0.7 -1.9 8.3 4.2 4.7 4.8 4.8 Malaysia
Thailand 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.0 Philippines
Vietnam 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9
Vietnam
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan) 7.0 6.1 8.8 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.8
Korea
Asean 4.3 1.4 7.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.7
NIEs 1.9 -0.9 7.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.3 Hong Kong
4 6 8 10 12 14
12
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: Gross domestic product, real annual variation in %. All
8 data for India refer to fiscal year ending in March.
Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
-4
Asia (ex China India NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
Japan)
GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 3,406 3,664 4,155 4,813 5,525 6,265 7,171
Hong Kong
Hong Kong 30,694 29,991 31,982 33,886 35,766 37,844 40,120
NIEs
India 1,049 1,087 1,339 1,570 1,788 2,004 2,242
Korea
Indonesia 2,127 2,320 2,768 3,123 3,435 3,758 4,138
Korea 19,162 17,078 21,086 24,124 25,953 27,243 28,637 Taiwan
Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977 Malaysia

Philippines 1,847 1,747 1,951 2,156 2,298 2,419 2,599 Thailand
Singapore 38,904 35,514 40,709 44,350 46,778 49,189 52,096 China
Taiwan 16,630 16,775 18,366 20,088 21,366 22,371 23,860 Asia (ex Japan)
Thailand 4,135 3,971 4,326 4,756 5,102 5,437 5,824 Asean
Vietnam 1,050 1,056 1,157 1,266 1,442 1,665 1,776
Indonesia
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan) 2,835 2,912 3,359 3,844 4,320 4,798 5,368
India
Asean 2,831 2,785 3,184 3,537 3,837 4,151 4,510
NIEs 20,576 19,172 22,427 25,059 26,790 28,152 29,754 Vietnam
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
30,000
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: GDP per capita in current USD.
22,500 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
15,000
7,500
0
Japan)

Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2
Asia (ex Japan)
Hong Kong 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0
Vietnam
India 6.8 4.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.1
India
Indonesia 5.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.7
Korea 1.3 0.2 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7 Singapore
Malaysia 8.5 0.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7 Malaysia

Philippines 4.7 4.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 Asean
Singapore 2.7 0.4 6.7 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.6 Hong Kong
Taiwan -0.6 1.5 3.1 3.1 4.0 3.3 3.3 Philippines
Thailand 2.7 -1.1 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.3 Indonesia
Vietnam 9.3 3.7 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.6 7.3
Thailand
NIEs
Asia (ex Japan) 6.7 6.2 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.7 7.6
Korea
Asean 5.1 2.5 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
NIEs 1.2 0.5 4.5 3.8 4.1 3.9 3.7 Taiwan
0 3 6 9 12
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 Notes and sources
8 Note: Private consumption, real annual variation in %. Data
for China are based on FocusEconomics estimates.
6
0
Japan)
Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8
Asia (ex Japan)
Hong Kong 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2
Taiwan
India 4.0 7.2 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.5
India
Indonesia 11.9 3.3 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.4
Korea -1.9 -0.2 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.8 Philippines
Malaysia 0.8 -5.5 8.5 6.6 5.9 6.8 7.4 Singapore

Philippines 2.9 -3.5 10.6 5.7 6.3 6.8 6.5 Thailand
Singapore 13.6 -3.3 10.2 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.9 Hong Kong
Taiwan -11.2 -11.8 17.2 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.6 NIEs
Thailand 1.2 -9.0 10.1 6.8 6.8 8.9 8.1 Asean
Vietnam 3.8 8.7 7.9 7.5 8.0 7.9 8.0
Indonesia
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) 14.6 16.9 18.1 15.7 15.8 15.5 16.2
Vietnam
Asean 6.8 -1.4 9.3 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.6
NIEs -2.0 -3.5 9.9 5.3 5.2 5.0 5.1 Korea
0 8 16 24 32
40
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
30 Note: Gross fixed investment, real annual variation in %. Data
for China refer to nominal urban investment in fixed assets.
20
10
-10
Japan)

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Philippines

China 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2
Indonesia
Hong Kong 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8
India - - - - - - - Taiwan
Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.6 Vietnam

Korea 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 Asean
Malaysia 3.1 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 China
Philippines 6.8 7.1 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
Hong Kong
Singapore 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1
Taiwan 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.0 NIEs
Thailand 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 Asia (ex Japan)
Vietnam 4.7 4.6 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0 Malaysia
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Singapore
Asean 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6
NIEs 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 Thailand
0 2 4 6 8
10
Note: End-of-year unemployment rate. China end-of-year urban
8 unemployment. India has no official unemployment statistics.
Sources: National statistical institutes.
2
Asia (ex China NIEs Korea Asean Indonesia
Japan)
Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hong Kong

China -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7
Singapore
Hong Kong 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4
Korea
India -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.5 -3.6 -3.4
NIEs
Indonesia 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8
Korea 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6 Indonesia
Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4 China

Philippines -0.9 -3.9 -3.9 -3.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.2 Asean
Singapore 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9 Taiwan
Taiwan -0.9 -4.0 -2.8 -2.3 -1.4 -1.6 -1.4 Asia (ex Japan)
Thailand -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -1.7 -1.6 Thailand
Vietnam -2.1 -4.5 -6.2 -4.9 -3.4 -3.0 -3.2
Philippines
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) -1.0 -3.0 -2.9 -2.2 -1.8 -1.5 -1.1
India
Asean -0.4 -3.3 -2.8 -2.2 -1.7 -1.5 -1.3
NIEs 1.1 -1.9 -1.1 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 Vietnam
-8 -6 -4 -2 0
2
Notes and sources
0 Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.

Sources: National statistical institutes, finance ministries and
Asian Development Bank (ADB) for China.
-2
-4
-6
2008 2009 2010 2011
-8
Japan)

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1
India
Hong Kong 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1
Indonesia
India 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.3
Asean
Indonesia 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.2
Korea 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1 Philippines
Malaysia 5.4 0.6 1.9 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.6 Asia (ex Japan)
Philippines 9.3 3.2 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.8 4.5 Thailand
Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.8 2.5 2.1 1.9 1.6 China
Taiwan 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 Korea
Thailand 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6 Singapore
Vietnam 23.0 6.9 9.1 8.2 7.3 6.7 6.1
Hong Kong
NIEs
Asia (ex Japan) 6.2 0.8 3.9 3.6 3.3 3.5 3.4
Malaysia
Asean 8.6 2.7 4.2 4.5 4.2 4.3 3.9
NIEs 4.6 1.4 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 Taiwan
0 3 6 9 12
12
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: Annual average variation of consumer price index in %.
8 Data for India refer to wholesale price index (WPI).
-4
Japan)
Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China 5.3 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.3
Indonesia
Hong Kong 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 3.0
India
India 5.0 5.0 6.4 7.1 7.1 6.8 7.0
China
Indonesia 9.3 6.5 6.7 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6
Korea 3.3 2.0 2.6 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.8 Asia (ex Japan)
Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 Asean

Philippines 6.1 3.9 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.3 Philippines
Singapore 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.5 2.6 Malaysia
Taiwan 2.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 Korea
Thailand 2.8 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.2 3.8 4.0 Thailand
Vietnam 8.5 8.0 8.6 9.3 9.9 9.3 9.2
NIEs
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) 4.8 4.5 4.9 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.5
Singapore
Asean 5.6 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.7
NIEs 2.4 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.3 Hong Kong
0 2 4 6 8 10
10
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
8 Note: Nominal end-of-year interest rates in %.
China: 12-month lending rate.
Hong Kong: 91-day Hong Kong interbank offered rate
(HIBOR).
6
India: RBI repurchase rate.
Indonesia: Overnight BI rate.
Korea: Bank of Korea base rate.
4
Malaysia: Overnight policy rate.
Philippines: 91-day Treasury bill rate.
Singapore: 3-month Singapore interbank rate (SIBOR).
2 Taiwan: CB discount rate.
Thailand: 1-day repurchase rate.
Vietnam: Base rate.
0 Sources: National central banks.
Japan)

Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

China -6.9 -0.1 -3.2 -4.8 -2.7 -1.8 -4.1
Hong Kong
Hong Kong -0.7 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
India
India 21.6 -12.9 -1.9 -4.1 -2.1 0.0 -1.1
Taiwan
Indonesia 15.1 -17.0 -11.7 -3.2 0.4 1.7 0.9
Korea 25.7 -8.2 -6.8 -5.6 -3.4 -0.3 -0.1 China
Malaysia 4.5 -1.2 -5.6 -6.6 -1.7 0.5 -0.2 Asia (ex Japan)
Philippines 12.8 -2.4 -6.1 -3.7 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 NIEs
Singapore -0.1 -2.6 -5.5 -2.1 -2.1 1.8 -0.4 Singapore
Taiwan 1.3 -2.6 -2.9 -2.2 -1.1 0.3 -1.3 Malaysia
Thailand 3.4 -4.7 -9.3 -1.5 -0.9 0.8 0.6 Philippines
Vietnam 6.1 8.7 5.4 2.5 -4.2 -1.4 8.9
Korea
Asean
Asia (ex Japan) 3.6 -3.9 -4.0 -4.3 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4
Thailand
Asean 8.4 -7.5 -7.9 -3.0 -0.9 0.9 0.9
NIEs 14.1 -5.1 -4.9 -3.8 -2.4 0.1 -0.4 Indonesia
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
30
20 Note: Nominal depreciation of national currencies versus
USD in %. Positive number means currency is losing value
against USD. Regional aggregates provided only as indicative
10 information.
China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
0
-10
-20
Japan)
Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

China 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6
Malaysia
Hong Kong 13.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 7.8 7.6 5.9
Taiwan
India -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8
Hong Kong
Indonesia 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3
Korea -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 NIEs
Malaysia 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1 10.7 11.1 10.6 Asean

Philippines 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.4 China
Singapore 19.2 19.1 17.5 15.8 15.2 13.5 13.6 Philippines
Taiwan 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.5 Asia (ex Japan)
Vietnam -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1 -7.0 -6.2 -5.9
Korea
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan) 5.9 5.0 3.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
India
Asean 4.9 6.9 5.3 4.5 4.2 3.7 3.5
NIEs 5.1 8.6 6.2 5.2 4.9 4.6 4.5 Vietnam
-10 0 10 20
12
Note: Current account balance as % of GDP.
8 Sources: National statistical institutes and central banks.
China: State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).
-4
Japan)

Export Growth, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Taiwan

China 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4
Singapore
Hong Kong 5.6 -11.9 17.0 9.8 6.0 7.8 8.4
China
India 13.7 -7.8 19.5 16.6 13.3 10.9 11.7
Asia (ex Japan)
Indonesia 18.3 -14.4 23.5 12.4 11.3 12.0 9.1
Korea 14.2 -13.7 22.3 9.9 10.6 9.4 8.7 Indonesia
Malaysia 13.1 -21.1 21.4 11.9 10.7 9.1 7.0 Asean

Philippines -2.2 -22.3 22.3 10.1 5.9 5.4 5.1 NIEs
Singapore 12.7 -20.2 24.7 12.2 10.3 12.8 14.2 Philippines
Taiwan 3.4 -20.2 30.5 9.5 10.8 8.4 9.1 Korea
Thailand 16.8 -13.9 22.0 9.1 12.7 11.7 8.7 Thailand
Vietnam 29.1 -9.7 21.3 17.7 13.0 17.5 15.1
Malaysia
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) 13.7 -15.7 23.6 12.5 8.6 8.3 7.8
India
Asean 14.4 -17.8 23.4 11.9 11.0 11.8 10.7
NIEs 9.4 -16.0 23.2 10.4 9.4 9.6 10.1 Hong Kong
15 20 25 30 35
30
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise exports
China: Customs Department.
-15
2008 2009 2010 2011
-30
Japan)
Import Growth, annual variation in % Import Growth, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Taiwan

China 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7
Indonesia
Hong Kong 6.2 -10.2 18.9 11.1 5.1 6.3 8.5
China
India 21.2 -9.6 24.4 16.7 10.2 10.7 12.4
Korea
Indonesia 36.9 -27.7 34.2 16.7 11.4 13.7 13.2
Korea 21.8 -25.7 32.6 12.6 11.6 9.3 8.7 Thailand
Malaysia 6.5 -21.0 29.3 14.0 10.5 12.7 7.6 Malaysia

Philippines 6.2 -24.1 19.7 11.4 8.3 6.6 7.0 Asia (ex Japan)
Singapore 21.3 -23.1 23.5 12.9 10.0 12.9 18.1 NIEs
Taiwan 9.4 -26.9 39.2 11.6 11.4 8.7 9.7 Asean
Thailand 26.4 -24.9 32.3 11.1 10.2 9.1 9.1 India
Vietnam 28.6 -14.7 21.3 15.5 11.8 15.9 14.6
Singapore
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) 17.5 -17.0 28.9 14.6 8.7 8.7 9.4
Philippines
Asean 20.7 -23.0 26.7 13.4 10.4 12.2 12.9
NIEs 14.7 -20.9 27.0 12.0 9.2 9.2 11.0 Hong Kong
15 20 25 30 35 40
50
2008 2009 2010 2011
Notes and sources
Note: Nominal annual variation in % of merchandise imports.
China: Customs Department.
-25
-50
Japan)

International Reserves, months of imports International Reserves, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

China 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9
Taiwan
Hong Kong 5.6 8.8 8.2 8.1 7.7 8.1 8.0
Asia (ex Japan)
India 9.9 12.2 10.1 9.4 8.6 9.4 8.6
Philippines
Indonesia 5.3 9.4 8.4 7.9 7.8 7.0 6.4
Korea 5.7 10.2 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.2 7.8 Thailand
Malaysia 7.5 9.9 8.2 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.1 NIEs

Philippines 7.4 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 10.6 India
Singapore 6.6 9.2 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.8 6.7 Singapore
Taiwan 14.8 24.2 19.0 18.3 17.9 17.4 16.7 Asean
Thailand 7.6 12.6 10.9 10.8 11.2 10.1 8.9 Indonesia
Vietnam 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0
Korea
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) 11.9 17.5 15.0 14.2 12.6 13.9 13.2
Hong Kong
Asean 6.6 9.5 8.5 8.3 8.4 7.7 6.9
NIEs 7.4 11.8 10.2 9.9 9.7 9.4 9.2 Vietnam
0 5 10 15 20 25
32
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
Note: International reserves as months of imports.
24 Sources: Central banks.
16
0
Japan)
External Debt, % of GDP External Debt, 2010
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Korea
China 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3
Hong Kong 308 319 303 255 211 173 139 Philippines
India 18.5 19.9 16.4 15.3 14.0 13.8 12.8
Vietnam
Indonesia 31.9 32.2 25.8 22.8 21.8 20.8 19.6
Korea 40.6 48.3 39.4 35.7 32.2 30.9 29.5 Malaysia
Malaysia 30.8 35.7 28.1 24.7 22.9 21.4 20.2
Philippines 32.3 33.1 30.8 27.6 25.4 24.4 22.7 Indonesia
Singapore 216 235 212 210 207 204 202 Asia (ex Japan)
Taiwan 23.6 21.1 21.5 21.0 17.7 19.1 18.9
Vietnam 28.9 30.3 29.0 28.6 24.7 24.3 23.6
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan) 28.8 29.2 25.3 22.3 19.8 18.2 16.4 India
Asean 54.4 58.3 50.8 47.5 45.5 44.0 42.1
China
NIEs 89.6 99.1 87.8 78.8 70.2 65.0 59.8
0 10 20 30 40
125
Notes and sources
2008 2009 2010 2011
100 Note: External debt as % of GDP.
Sources: National statistical institutes, central banks and
finance ministries.
75
50
25
0
Japan)

Quarterly Data | Economic Growth and Inflation | Q1 2008 - Q4 2010
Gross domestic product 2008 2009 2010

annual var. in % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China 11.3 10.7 9.9 7.5 6.5 8.2 9.5 11.1 11.9 10.3 9.6 8.6
Hong Kong 8.6 5.6 2.6 -1.2 -7.7 -3.8 -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3
India 8.6 7.8 7.7 5.8 5.8 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.6 8.8 7.8 8.8
Indonesia 6.2 6.4 6.4 5.3 4.5 4.1 4.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.2
Korea 5.5 4.4 3.3 -3.3 -4.3 -2.2 1.0 6.0 8.1 7.2 4.3 4.5
Malaysia 7.6 6.5 4.9 0.1 -6.2 -3.9 -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.8 4.7
Philippines 3.9 3.7 4.6 2.8 0.5 1.2 0.2 2.1 7.8 7.9 5.8 4.8
Singapore 7.4 2.7 0.0 -2.5 -8.9 -1.7 1.8 3.8 16.9 19.6 10.3 10.7
Taiwan 6.9 5.4 -0.8 -7.1 -9.1 -6.9 -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 7.1 3.0
Thailand 6.4 5.2 2.9 -4.2 -7.1 -4.9 -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 6.5 3.5
Vietnam 7.5 6.7 6.5 5.6 3.1 4.5 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.2
Asia (ex Japan) 9.2 8.3 7.3 4.2 3.2 4.8 6.6 8.7 10.6 9.6 8.2 7.5
Asean 6.4 5.4 4.5 1.4 -1.3 0.3 1.5 4.9 9.1 9.0 6.7 6.0
NIEs 6.4 4.6 1.9 -3.8 -6.4 -3.5 0.2 6.1 10.4 9.8 5.8 4.9
GDP, year-on-year variation in % Consumer Prices, year-on-year variation in %
15 15
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
10 10
5 5
0 0
Asia (ex Japan) China
India Korea
-5 -5
Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10 Q1 08 Q3 08 Q1 09 Q3 09 Q1 10 Q3 10
Yoy change of quarterly 2008 2009 2010

avg. CPI % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
China 8.0 7.8 5.3 2.5 -0.6 -1.5 -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5
Hong Kong 4.6 5.7 4.6 2.3 1.7 -0.1 -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8
India 6.0 9.0 11.1 8.6 3.6 0.5 0.3 4.3 9.5 10.6 9.0 6.3
Indones ia 7.6 10.7 13.5 12.6 9.2 5.7 2.8 2.6 3.7 4.4 6.2 6.1
Korea 3.0 3.6 4.4 4.7 4.7 4.2 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2
Malaysia 2.6 4.9 8.4 5.9 3.7 1.3 -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3
Philippines 5.5 9.7 12.2 9.7 6.9 3.2 0.3 2.9 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4
Singapore 6.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 2.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.8 0.9 3.1 1.6 3.7
Taiwan 3.6 4.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 -0.8 -1.3 -1.2 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.1
Thailand 5.1 7.5 7.3 2.2 -0.3 -2.8 -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9
Vietnam 11.1 15.5 20.2 23.0 22.4 17.4 11.0 6.9 5.2 5.9 7.3 8.2
As ia (ex Japan) 6.5 7.3 6.6 4.4 1.6 0.1 -0.3 1.5 3.4 4.1 4.2 3.9
As ean 6.2 9.0 10.9 9.0 6.4 3.2 1.0 2.0 3.1 3.7 4.3 4.5
NIEs 3.7 4.4 4.7 3.8 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.7

FOCUSECONOMICS November 2010
Economic Release Calendar
Date Country Event

27 Octobe r Ko rea Q3 2010 National Accounts
28 Octobe r Ko rea September Balance of Payments
29 Octobe r Indonesia September Merchandise Trade
Ko rea October Industrial Production
Singapore Q3 2010 Unemployment
Thailand September Industrial Production
Thailand September Merchandise Trade
1 November C hina October PMI
Hong Kong September Retail Sales
India October Merchandise Trade
Indonesia October Consumer Prices
Ko rea October Consumer Prices
2 November Thailand October Consumer Prices
3 November Malaysia September Merchandise Trade
5 November Philippines October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Producer Prices
8 November Taiwan October Merchandise Trade
10 Nove mber Ko rea October Unemployment
Malaysia September Industrial Production
Philippines September Merchandise Trade
11 Nove mber C hina October Consumer Prices
C hina October Fixed Asset Investment
C hina October Retail Sales
C hina October Industrial Production
India September Industrial Production
Indonesia September Industrial Production
12 Nove mber Hong Kong Q3 2010 National Accounts
India September Industrial Production
14 Nove mber India October Wholesale Prices
15 Nove mber Ko rea October Merchandise Trade
16 Nove mber Singapore October Merchandise Trade
Indonesia Q3 2010 Balance of Payments
18 Nove mber Indonesia Q3 2010 National Accounts
19 Nove mber Malaysia Q3 2010 National Accounts
20 Nove mber Taiwan Q3 2010 Balance of Payments
22 Nove mber Hong Kong October Consumer Prices
Taiwan October Unemployment
23 Nove mber Ko rea Q3 2010 External Debt
Singapore October Consumer Prices

FOCUSECONOMICS China November 2010
China
China
Outlook stable
• On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping
was selected vice-president of the Central Military Commission, thus
cementing his position as Hu Jintao’s likely successor, once Hu steps
down from the presidency in 2013.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Economic growth slowed in the third quarter to 9.6% year-on-year,
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 as a result of a higher base effect as well as concerted government
Population (million): 1,294 1,326 1,382 policies aimed at slowing growth. Consensus Forecast panellists have
GDP (USD bn): 1,510 3,562 7,825
left their forecasts for GDP growth unchanged over last month and
GDP per capita (USD): 1,165 2,681 5,650
GDP growth (%): 9.2 10.7 9.2 expect the economy to grow 9.9% this year. For 2011, the panel sees
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.3 -0.8 -1.6 economic growth slowing to 8.9%.
Inflation (%): 1.1 2.6 3.1
Current Account (% of GDP): 2.4 8.6 4.0
External Debt (% of GDP): 12.0 10.5 5.9 • Inflation rose from 3.5% in August to 3.6% in September. Panellists,
however, expect inflation to average 3.1% this year, which is
unchanged over last month’s projection. In 2011, the panel expects
inflation to moderate a notch to 3.0%.
Keith Catlin POLITICS | Xi Jinping appointed vice-president of Central Military

Senior Economist Commission
On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was elected
vice-president of the Central Military Commission at the recent Communist
Party Central Commission plenary session. The move cements Xi, who has
held a variety of important posts within the Chinese hierarchy, as heir-apparent
to succeed President Hu Jintao, when he steps down as head of state in 2013.
Gross Domestic Product | annual variation in %
Xi’s political leanings with respect to economic reforms are not fully known, as
13.0
he has kept his personal beliefs to himself in public appearances. However,
11.9
some China watchers think that he will likely take cues from his father, who
12.0
was an official under Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, in addition to mentoring
11.1 Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao. Going forward, however, Vice-President Xi is likely
11.0
%
to clarify his views about economic policies as well as about domestic and
10.3
foreign issues.
10.0
9.6
9.5
9.0
REAL SECTOR | Economic growth continues to moderate in third quarter
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010
In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 9.6% over the
same period the year before. The reading came in below the 10.3% expansion
Note: Year-on-year changes in %. registered in the second quarter, but was broadly in line with market
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).
expectations, which had seen the economy expanding 9.7%.
According the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the slowdown in the third
quarter was the result of a higher base effect as well as concerted government
policies aimed at slowing the rapid expansion of the economy. Earlier this year,
Chinese policy makers implemented a series of measure designed to cool the
housing market and new loan growth.

Industrial Production | variation in %

According to official media, the government currently expects the economy to
grow 9.5% this year. Currently, panellists have left their projections unchanged
25.0
over the previous month and expect the economy to expand 9.9%. For next
Year-on-year Annual Average year, panellists expect the economy to expand 8.9% which is unchanged over
20.7 20.7
20.0 19.2
last month’s Consensus.
18.5 18.1 17.8
16.1 16.5
15.0 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.9 13.3 REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows in September
%
In September, industrial production expanded 13.3% over the same month
10.0
last year. The reading came in below the previous month’s 13.9% expansion
and undershot market expectations, which had seen industrial production
5.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
strengthening to a 14.0% expansion.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average var. of industrial production in %.

One of the primary drivers behind the monthly deceleration was transport
Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, January and Feb- equipment, which slowed from 16.6% year-on-year in August to 14.4% in
ruary data are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics September. In addition, electronic equipment manufacturing also slowed,
calculations.
moderating to 11.6% annually (August: +14.9% yoy).
As a result of the September reading, industrial production growth weakened

to 13.5% in the third quarter, down from the 15.9% expansion recorded in the
second quarter. Meanwhile, annual average growth in industrial production
moderated for the first time in a year, falling a notch from 16.9% in August to
Nominal Retail Sales | variation in % 16.8%.
24.0
Year-on-year Annual Average Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial output to grow 15.0% this
22.1
22.0 year, which is 0.3 percentage points down from last month’s estimate. For
2011, the panel expects industrial production growth to moderate to 13.6%.
20.0
18.8
%
18.5 18.7 18.3 18.4
18.0 17.5
18.0 17.9 REAL SECTOR | Retail sales pick up speed
16.2
In September, nominal retail sales added 18.8% over the same month last
15.8
16.0 15.5
15.2 year. The figure came in above the 18.4% increase tallied in August and overshot
market expectations, which had seen retail sales accelerating only a notch to
14.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep an 18.5% increase.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of retail sales in %. Janu- The pick-up in retail was, in part, the result of stronger sales for foodstuffs,
ary and February data are affected by to seasonal factors related to the
Lunar New Year. which accelerated from 28.1% year-on-year growth in August to 31.9% in
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
September. Meanwhile, car sales, which had previously been an important
driver in the surge in retail sales, slowed over the previous month (August:
+35.2 yoy; September: +29.7% yoy).
Despite the strong September reading, nominal retail sales added 18.4% in
the third quarter, down a notch from the second quarter’s 18.5% reading. On
Nominal Urban Fixed Investment | variation in % the other hand, annual average retail sales continued to rise, improving from
17.7% in August to 18.0%, which is the highest level since July 2009.
40.0
Year-on-year
Annual Average
35.1 Consensus Forecast panellists expect retail sales to grow 18.9% this year,
35.0
which is 0.2 percentage points down over last month’s forecast. For 2011, the
31.6
panel anticipates retail sales to slow to 17.1%.
30.0
%
26.6 26.6 26.3
25.4 25.4
24.9
REAL SECTOR | Investment slows again
25.0 24.3 23.9
22.3
23.2 In the first nine months of the year, nominal urban fixed-asset investment
20.5 increased 24.5% over the same period last year. The reading was down from
20.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep the 24.8% figure tallied in the first eight months of the year and undershot
market expectations by a notch, which had seen investment slowing to 24.6%.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of nominal urban fixed in-
vestment in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year,
January and February data are reported together. Based on the nine-month growth rate published by the National Statistical Office
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics
calculations.
(NBS), urban fixed-asset investment grew 23.2% year-on-year in September,
which was down from the previous month’s 23.9% reading.

Consensus Forecast participants expect urban fixed-asset investment growth

to accelerate to 25.1% for the full year 2010, which is 0.2 percentage points up
Purchasing Managers’ Index from last month’s estimate. For 2011, the panel expects investment to moderate
to 22.0%.
60
OUTLOOK | PMI jumps in September

55
The September Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) from the National Bureau
50 of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL)
% rose by 2.1 percentage points to 53.8%. The figure beat market forecasts,
45
which had seen the index rising only to 52.0%. With the September reading,
40
the index has now tallied more than a year and a half above the 50% threshold
after plummeting far below that level in November 2008. A reading above 50%
35 indicates that the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
50% implies a contraction.
Note: Purchasing Managers’ Index from the National Bureau of Statistics of

China (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP). The improvement was broad-based, as nine of the 11 components composing
A reading above 50 shows an increase while a value below 50 shows a
decrease. the index rose over the previous month. That said, the category that experienced
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and the China Federa-
tion of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).
the most marked increase was input prices, which could indicate an increase
in price pressures going forward.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises again in September

In September, consumer prices rose for the third consecutive month to reach
3.6% annually. The figure came in a notch above the 3.5% year-on-year increase
Inflation | Consumer Price Index
registered in the previous month, but was in line with market expectations.
4.0
Furthermore, the reading represented the highest level in nearly two years.
3.5 3.6
Year-on-year
3.1
2.9
3.3
The main drivers behind the increase were higher prices for food. As a result of
3.0 2.7 2.8
Annual Average
2.4 the September figure, annual average inflation rose from the 1.9% registered
1.9
2.0
1.5
in August to 2.3%, the highest level in over a year.
1.0 0.6
%
Producer prices, in contrast, were flat over the previous month. In September,
0.0
the producer price index (PPI) added a more-than-expected 4.3% annually,
-0.5
-1.0 -0.8 which mirrored the previous month’s reading. More moderate producer prices
-2.0 may feed into lower consumer prices going forward.
Note: Annual and annual average variation of consumer price index in %.

On 20 October, Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan warned that inflation
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). risks could increase going forward. Currently, the government maintains a 3.0%
inflation target for this year. Consensus Forecast participants expect inflation
to average 3.1% in 2010, which is 0.1 percentage points down from last month’s
estimate. For 2011, the panel expects inflation to moderate a notch to 3.0%.
MONETARY SECTOR | PBOC surprises market by raising interest rates

Monetary Policy Rate | in % After the close of business on 19 October, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC)
surprised the market by lifting both the 1-year deposit rate and the headline 1-
8.0
year lending rate by 25 basis points, from 2.25% to 2.50% and from 5.31% to
5.56%, respectively. The decision took effect on 20 October. monetary policy
7.0
makers had left interest rates unchanged since December 2008.
% The hike came on the heels of the 11 October decision to raise the reserve
6.0 requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points. Currently, the RRR stands at 17.5%
for the country’s largest lenders. The hike represented the fourth time this year
that the PBOC increased the RRR, with the last move taking place in May.
5.0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
These measures signal that the country’s policy makers are firmly committed
Note: One-year lending rate in %.
to keeping inflation expectations under control. Furthermore, a tighter monetary
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC). policy corroborates the notion that Chinese leaders are not concerned about a
global double-dip recession.

EXTERNAL SECTOR | Export growth moderates further

Merchandise Trade | USD bn
In September, exports added 25.1% over the same month last year to reach
150
USD 145.0 billion. The figure came in below the 34.4% expansion in August
and undershot market expectations, which had seen exports growing 26.0%.
100
The reading represented the fourth consecutive month of slowing export growth.
50 Meanwhile, imports grew 24.1% year-on-year (August: +35.2% yoy) to reach

USD 128.1 billion. As a result, the trade surplus shrunk from USD 20.1 billion
0 in August to USD 16.9 billion in September.
Trade Balance Exports Imports
-50 Despite the moderation in September, the three-month average in exports

reached USD 143.3 billion, which is well above the USD 136.0 billion pre-crisis
peak reached in September 2008. Consensus Forecast panellists estimate
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China
year exports to grow 24.7% this year and 14.3% in 2011.
and FocusEconomics calculations.

Economic Indicators | 2005 - 2014

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 1,322 1,314 1,323 1,331 1,340 1,365 1,374 1,382 1,391 1,400
GDP per capita (USD) 1,685 2,032 2,564 3,406 3,720 4,184 4,838 5,578 6,358 7,293
GDP (USD bn) 2,228 2,671 3,391 4,535 4,984 5,711 6,646 7,711 8,845 10,211
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 10.4 11.6 13.0 9.6 9.1 9.9 8.9 9.0 9.0 9.1
Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 12.0 9.8 10.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.5 9.2
Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 26.0 23.9 25.8 26.1 30.5 25.1 22.0 21.8 20.7 21.8
Industrial Production (ann. var. in %) 16.3 16.4 18.0 12.9 11.1 15.0 13.6 13.1 12.8 12.7
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 12.9 13.7 16.8 21.7 15.5 18.9 17.1 17.6 18.2 19.0
Unemployment (% of active population) 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.4 -2.2 -2.6 -1.9 -1.5 -1.3 -0.7
Monetary and Financial Sector
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.8 17.5 21.4 8.6 32.4 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.6 2.8 6.5 1.2 1.9 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.8 1.5 4.8 5.9 -0.7 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 3.2 3.0 5.4 -1.1 1.7 - - - - -
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.58 6.12 7.47 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.95 6.12 6.85 7.33
Stock Market (SSE comp. var. in %) -8.3 130 96.7 -65.4 80.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, eop) 8.07 7.82 7.30 6.83 6.83 6.61 6.31 6.15 6.04 5.80
Exchange Rate (CNY per USD, average) 8.18 7.94 7.59 6.93 6.83 6.72 6.46 6.23 6.09 5.92
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 7.2 9.4 11.0 9.4 6.0 4.8 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 161 250 372 426 297 272 274 299 339 364
Trade Balance (USD bn) 102 177 262 297 196 176 164 158 147 116
Exports (USD bn) 763 969 1,218 1,430 1,202 1,505 1,720 1,825 1,922 2,006
Imports (USD bn) 660 792 956 1,133 1,005 1,330 1,557 1,667 1,775 1,894
Exports (annual variation in %) 28.4 27.1 25.7 17.4 -16.0 24.7 14.3 6.1 5.3 4.4
Imports (annual variation in %) 17.7 19.9 20.7 18.5 -11.2 34.2 17.1 7.1 6.5 6.7
International Reserves (USD bn) 819 1,066 1,528 1,946 2,399 2,654 2,899 2,574 3,353 3,450
International Reserves (months of imports) 14.9 16.2 19.2 20.6 28.6 23.9 22.3 18.5 22.7 21.9
External Debt (USD bn) 281 323 374 375 429 386 396 442 496 540
External Debt (% of GDP) 12.6 12.1 11.0 8.3 8.6 6.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.3
Quarterly Data Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -1.3 0.7 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.1 2.8 2.4
12-Month Lending Rate (%, eop) 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.31 5.55 5.76 5.94 6.01 5.95
Monthly Data Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10
Nom. Fixed Urban Invest. (ann. var. in %) 20.5 26.6 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.4 24.9 22.3 23.9 23.2
Retail Sales (annual var. in %) 17.5 15.2 22.1 18.0 18.5 18.7 18.3 17.9 18.4 18.8
PMI (50.0%-point threshold) 56.6 55.8 52.0 55.1 55.7 53.9 52.1 51.2 51.7 53.8
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.9 1.5 2.7 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6

Real Sector | Gross Domestic Product
1 | Real GDP | 1995 - 2014 | % variation 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation Real GDP growth in %
18 20
China Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
China
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz 10.0 9.0
Asia (ex Japan) World
World 15 ANZ 10.2 9.6
12
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 10.0 9.0
10 Capital Economics 10.0 8.0
6
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.5 8.8
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 9.5 8.8
5
Credit Suisse 9.7 8.8
0 Daiwa Capital Markets 9.8 8.6
0 DBS Bank 10.0 9.5
Deutsche Bank 9.6 8.6
-6 -5 Goldman Sachs 10.1 10.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Hang Seng Bank 9.5 9.0
HSBC 10.0 8.9
ING 10.0 9.0
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts
JPMorgan 9.8 8.6
14 12
Maximum Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.5 8.7
Maximum
Consensus Morgan Stanley 10.0 9.5
Consensus
Minimum
12
Minimum RBC Capital Markets 9.7 8.8
10 Standard Chartered Bank 10.0 8.5
UBS 10.0 8.7
10 United Overseas Bank 10.0 8.3
Wing Hang Bank 10.2 -
8 Summary
8 Minimum 9.5 8.0
Maximum 10.2 10.0
Median 10.0 8.8
6 6 Consensus 9.9 8.9
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep History
30 days ago 9.9 8.9
5 | Consumption | % variation 6 | Investment | % variation
60 days ago 10.0 8.9
90 days ago 10.1 8.9
15 40
China Additional Forecasts
China
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) IMF (Oct. 2010) 10.5 9.6
30 ADB (Sep. 2010) 9.6 9.1
10
20
Notes and sources

10
General:
5
Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS),
0
Asian Development Bank (ADB) and FocusEconomics estimates. See be-
low for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-
cast.
0 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: NBS.
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts
3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
11 28 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: FocusEconomics
2011 2011 estimate.
26 6 Nominal urban fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
10
18 months.
8 Nominal urban fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts
24 during the last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NBS.
9 10 Urban unemployment, % of active population. Source: NBS.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: ADB.
22
12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
8 20 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
during the last 18 months.

Real Sector | Additional forecasts

Consumption Investment Industry Unemployment Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
Allianz - - - - - - - - -2.7 -2.3
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 9.8 9.4 26.0 21.5 16.6 16.0 4.3 4.0 -3.0 -1.5
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - -3.0 -2.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 9.0 9.5 - - 14.5 12.7 4.1 4.0 -2.7 -2.4
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 9.6 9.7 - - - - - - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets - - - - 12.3 12.5 - - -1.1 1.3
DBS Bank - - 24.5 23.5 - - - - -2.8 -2.5
Deutsche Bank 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 13.5 12.0 - - -2.5 -2.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.0 -
Hang Seng Bank - - - - 14.0 12.0 - - - -
HSBC 9.5 9.2 26.0 20.0 15.5 13.2 4.3 4.3 -2.8 -2.6
ING - - 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.2 4.2 -2.8 -2.4
JPMorgan - - - - 15.9 13.6 - - -2.1 -1.8
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 9.2 9.7 - - - - 4.3 4.2 - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -3.0 -3.0
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.3 -1.1
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - - - -
UBS 9.7 9.0 - - - - - - -3.5 -2.0
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - -2.7 -1.9
Wing Hang Bank - - 25.0 - 15.0 - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 9.0 9.0 21.0 20.0 12.3 12.0 4.1 4.0 -3.5 -3.0
Maximum 9.8 9.7 28.0 25.0 17.8 17.0 4.3 4.3 -1.1 1.3
Median 9.5 9.4 25.5 21.5 15.0 13.0 4.3 4.2 -2.7 -2.0
Consensus 9.4 9.4 25.1 22.0 15.0 13.6 4.2 4.1 -2.6 -1.9
History
30 days ago 9.4 9.4 24.9 22.0 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9
60 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.9
90 days ago 9.4 9.3 25.0 21.7 15.3 13.6 4.3 4.2 -2.6 -1.8
9 | Industry | % variation 10 | Unemployment | % of active pop. 11 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP

24 5 4
China
China China
Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan)
World
18
4 0
12
3 -4
6
0 2 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12 | Industry | evolution of forecasts 13 | Unemployment | evolution of fcst 14 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst
16 4.7 -1
2010 2010 2010

2011 2011 2011
14 4.5 -2
12 4.3 -3
10 4.1 -4
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Producer Prices and Stock Market
15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
20 12
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
China China
Asia (ex Japan)
Allianz 3.2 3.0
Asia (ex Japan)
15 ANZ 2.9 3.0
8
4
5
0 DBS Bank 4.0 3.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Hang Seng Bank 3.0 2.5
HSBC 2.9 2.5
ING 2.5 2.5
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 2.8 2.7
6 6
Maximum Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 3.8 4.4
Maximum Consensus
Consensus Minimum Morgan Stanley 2.8 3.0
Minimum
RBC Capital Markets - -
4 4 Standard Chartered Bank 2.5 4.0
UBS 3.0 3.5
United Overseas Bank 3.9 4.7
2 2 Summary
Minimum 2.4 1.3
Maximum 4.0 4.7
Median 3.0 3.0
30 days ago 3.1 3.1
19 | Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
60 days ago 3.2 3.1
90 days ago 3.3 3.1
10 40
Additional Forecasts
IMF (Oct. 2010) 3.5 2.7
ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.2 3.2
30
5
20
0
10
-5 0
2000 2003 2006 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
General:
21 | MSCI Broad China Index 22 | Stock Market | SSE Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary sector data are from the National Bureau of Statistics of China
3,500 6,000 (NBS) and People’s Bank of China (PBOC). See below for details. Fore-
casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
3,000 5,000 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
%. Source: NBS.
16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
2,500 4,000
%. Source: NBS.
17 Inflation, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2,000 3,000 18 Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.
Source: NBS.
1,500 2,000 20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: PBOC.
21 Daily MSCI Broad China index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: MSCI Barra.
1,000 1,000 22 Daily index levels, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul (SSE). Jan. 2008 until end of previous month. Source: Shanghai Stock
Exchange.

Monetary Sector | Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
14 8
Interest Rate Exchange Rate
% CNY per USD
12 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
Allianz - - 6.60 6.30
7
10
ANZ 5.85 - 6.62 6.21
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 6.40 6.20
Capital Economics 5.31 6.12 6.68 6.50
8
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 6.65 6.40
6
Core Pacific-Yamaichi 5.49 6.03 6.78 6.57
6 Credit Suisse 5.58 6.12 6.70 6.47
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.58 5.58 6.45 6.20
DBS Bank 5.58 - 6.63 -
4 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Deutsche Bank - - 6.65 6.40
Goldman Sachs - - 6.56 6.24
Hang Seng Bank 5.30 5.60 6.60 6.25
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst HSBC 5.31 5.31 6.67 6.54
7 8 ING - - 6.50 6.00
JPMorgan 5.85 5.85 6.60 6.20
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. 5.60 6.90 6.61 6.38
7 Morgan Stanley - - - -
6 RBC Capital Markets 5.58 6.12 6.60 6.20
Standard Chartered Bank 5.31 5.85 6.64 6.36
6 UBS - - 6.55 6.20
United Overseas Bank 5.85 - 6.77 -
5 Wing Hang Bank 5.56 - 6.65 -
5 Summary
Maximum
Consensus
Maximum Minimum 5.30 5.31 6.40 6.00
Minimum Consensus
Minimum Maximum 5.85 6.90 6.78 6.57
4 4 Median 5.58 5.94 6.62 6.28
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
Consensus 5.55 5.95 6.61 6.31
History
27 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | CNY per USD 30 days ago 5.54 5.99 6.66 6.38
60 days ago 5.61 5.95 6.64 6.36
9 8.0
90 days ago 5.66 6.01 6.64 6.36
8 7.5
7 7.0
6 6.5
Notes and sources
General:
5 6.0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 monetary and external sector data are from the National Bureau of Statis-
tics of China (NBS), the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), State Adminis-
tration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and General Administration of Cus-
29 | CNY/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | CNY/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts toms of the People’s Republic of China (Customs). See below for details.
Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
7.0 7.0
23 Interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source: PBOC.
24 Quarterly interest rate, 12-month Lending Rate in % (eop). Source:
PBOC.
25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6.5 6.5
27 Exchange rate,CNY per USD (eop). Source: SAFE.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, CNY per USD (eop). Source: PBOC.
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18 months.
6.0 6.0 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.
Maximum 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Customs.
Consensus Maximum
Consensus
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: PBOC.
Minimum
Minimum 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
5.5 5.5 during the last 18 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Customs.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: SAFE.

External Sector | Current Account, Trade and International Reserves

Current Account Trade Balance Exports Imports Int. Reserves
USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn
Allianz 210 204 150 130 1,550 1,730 1,400 1,600 2,650 2,900
ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 267 301 200 208 1,346 1,556 1,146 1,348 2,685 2,861
Capital Economics 320 380 220 - 1,680 - 1,460 - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 290 309 173 191 1,547 1,771 1,374 1,581 2,650 2,975
Credit Suisse 321 334 230 245 1,495 1,630 1,265 1,385 - -
Daiwa Capital Markets 139 175 92 76 1,370 1,507 1,278 1,431 2,635 2,859
DBS Bank 245 210 144 109 1,622 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,550 2,700
Deutsche Bank 227 190 167 135 1,562 1,781 1,395 1,646 2,550 2,850
Goldman Sachs 321 - - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank - - 158 121 1,526 1,831 1,368 1,710 - -
HSBC 250 260 175 180 1,502 1,720 1,327 1,540 2,550 2,700
ING 228 231 101 93 1,467 1,746 1,366 1,653 2,700 2,900
JPMorgan 278 276 269 273 1,519 1,756 1,250 1,484 2,766 3,146
Lloyds TSB Corp. Mrkts. - - - - - - - - - -
Morgan Stanley 343 304 - - - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 338 326 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank 331 303 - - - - - - - -
UBS 321 361 182 204 1,490 1,669 1,308 1,465 2,800 3,100
United Overseas Bank 200 220 - - - - - - - -
Wing Hang Bank - - 200 - 1,400 - 1,200 - - -
Summary
Minimum 175 175 92 76 1,346 1,507 1,146 1,348 2,550 2,700
Maximum 380 380 269 273 1,680 1,947 1,478 1,838 2,800 3,146
Median 288 288 174 157 1,510 1,738 1,347 1,560 2,650 2,881
Consensus 274 274 176 164 1,505 1,720 1,330 1,557 2,654 2,899
History
30 days ago 272 273 174 161 1,511 1,723 1,337 1,562 2,654 2,899
60 days ago 267 268 161 147 1,492 1,702 1,330 1,555 2,690 2,956
90 days ago 264 268 159 144 1,490 1,699 1,331 1,555 2,690 2,956
31 | Current Account | % of GDP 32 | Trade Balance | USD billion 33 | Int. Reserves | months of imports
15 2,400 30
Trade Balance China
China Exports Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Imports 25
10 1,800
20
5 1,200
15
0 600
10
-5 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | External Debt | % of GDP
450 45 60
China
2010
2011 Asia (ex Japan)
30
400 45
15
350 30
0
300 15
-15
China
Asia (ex Japan)
250 -30 0
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fact Sheet
General Data China in the Region
Official name: People's Republic of China Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Beijing (13.3 m)
Other cities: Shanghai (19.2 m) Malaysia
Korea Malaysia Other Other
Chengdu (11.0 m) 2% 1% 10% Korea
2%
14%
10%
Chongqing (5.2 m) Indonesia
Indonesia
7%
6%
Area (km2): 9,596,960 China

43%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 1,338 India

Pop. density (per km2, 2009 est.): 139 15%
Pop. growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.7

China
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 73.5 India
37% 53%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.1

Language: Mandarin Chinese and other
Measures: Metric & local systems
Time: 8 hours ahead of GMT
Economic Infrastructure Economic Structure
Telecommunication (2009)
Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 23.3
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 55.5 Industry Industry
46%
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 28.5 48%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 7.7

Agricultur
Agricultur e
e 1999 11% 2009
Energy (2007) 16%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 70,796
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 77,808
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 3,041
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 2,835 Services Services
38% 41%
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 3,912
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 7,582
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 6,247
Transportation (2009)
Airports: 482 Trade Structure
Railways (km): 77,834
Roadways (km): 3,583,715 Primary markets | share in %
Waterways (km): 110,000
Chief Ports: Shanghai, Canton, Ningbo USA
EU-27
USA 11%
EU-27 7%
18%
20%
Japan
12%
Political Data
Hong
Japan Imports
Prime Minister: Hu Jintao Exports
8%
Kong &
Other Macao
Last elections: 15 March 2008 25%
Hong
Other
3%
45%
Next elections: March 2013 Kong & Other
Macao Asia
Chairman of the PBOC: Zhou Xiaochuan Other 14% 22%
Asia
15%
Long-term Foreign Currency Ratings
Agency Rating Outlook Primary products | share in %

Moody’s: A1 Positive
S&P: A+ Stable Agricultural
Manufactur
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable es
products
8%
93%
Fuel and
mining
products Manufact
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 28% Imports ures
65%
Fuels and
• Huge domestic market • Lack of comprehensive infra- mining
structure products
• Large workforce Agricultural
4%
• Nascent legal system products

• Competitive labour costs 3%
• Financial system vulnerability

FOCUSECONOMICS Hong Kong November 2010
Hong Kong
Hong Kong
Outlook improves
• Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions
continues to fuel economic growth. Recent data from the retail sector
corroborate this notion, as retail sales rose a strong 14.7% over the
same month last year. Furthermore, in spite of concerns regarding
slowing global demand, exports continue to steam ahead, adding 35.7%
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages in USD terms in August.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 6.7 6.9 7.2 • Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand
GDP (USD bn): 165 200 264
5.9% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
GDP growth (%): 4.4 4.0 4.6 forecast. For 2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 2.7 0.8
Inflation (%): -2.3 2.0 2.9
• Inflation dropped from 3.0% in August to 2.6% in September. However,
External Debt (% of GDP): 188 300 216 the government expects inflation to experience upward pressures in
the coming months. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.7% this
year, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. In 2011, the
panel expects inflation to rise to 3.0%.
Joan Enric Domene REAL SECTOR | Retail sales continue to grow at a strong pace in August
Economist In August, retail sales rose 14.7% over the same moth last year in volume
terms. The figure was down from the revised 16.2% increase recorded in
July (previously reported +16.0%), but overshot market expectations, which
had seen retail sales slowing to 13.2%. August’s reading represented the
seventh consecutive month of double-digit growth, thus, reflecting a strong
Retail Sales | variation in % consumer sentiment.
40.0
YoY Annual average The August expansion was broad-based. That said, the main drivers behind
31.5
30.0
the rise were sales of consumer durable goods, which increased by 28.0%
year-on-year, as well as jewellery, watches and valuable gifts, which rose
20.0 17.3 16.3 16.2 29.6%.
14.7
% 11.4 12.4 11.9
10.0
10.0 8.3
3.2
Seasonally adjusted figures corroborate the strong growth suggested by the
1.2
0.0
annual data, as retail sales increased 2.2% in the three-month period ending
-0.9
in August, compared to the previous period ending in May. Moreover, the trend
-10.0 continues to point up, as annual average growth in retail sales increased
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
from 11.2% in July to 12.6% in August.
Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation in %.
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics cal- A government spokesman stated that, looking ahead, positive developments
culations.
in the labour market and income prospects, together with robust inbound
tourism should continue to support retail businesses in the near term.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy will expand 5.9%

this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For
2011, the panel expects the economy to expand 4.5%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation moderates in September

In September, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the previous month, which
contrasted the 0.1% drop recorded in August. The increase was the result of
higher prices for food (+0.9% month-on-month), housing (+0.5% mom) as
well as clothing and footwear (+1.7% mom), which more than offset lower
prices for electricity, gas and water (-0.3% mom).
3.0 4.0
2.1
2.0 Despite the monthly price increase, annual inflation dropped from 3.0% in
2.0
August to 2.6%, undershooting market expectations, which had seen inflation
1.0
1.0 0.7
0.4
remaining at 3.0%. The decline in inflation was mainly due to the lower
% 0.4 0.3 %
0.1 0.1 0.1 comparison base in August last year when the one-off electricity subsidy was
0.0
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 paid by the government. However, annual average inflation inched up from
-0.4
-1.0 1.9% in August to 2.0%.
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) -1.4
-2.0 -2.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep A government spokesman stated that consumer prices are subject to upward
pressures, as wages and rentals continue to rise in tandem with the
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. economic recovery. Higher import prices due to rising global food prices and
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong.
a weaker US dollar, owing to the USD-HKD peg, may further fuel inflation.
The government sees inflation averaging 2.3% this year.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.7% this year,

which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2011, the panel expects
annual average inflation to rise further to 3.0%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.2
GDP (USD bn) 178 190 207 215 211 229 245 263 282 302
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 7.1 7.0 6.4 2.2 -2.8 5.9 4.5 4.5 4.2 4.0
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.0 5.9 8.5 2.4 -0.4 5.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 4.1 7.1 3.4 0.8 -1.8 9.9 8.1 5.0 4.9 5.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 2.5 2.2 -1.4 -6.7 -8.3 1.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.4
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.2 4.4 3.4 4.1 4.9 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 1.0 4.0 7.7 0.1 0.8 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.8 2.4
Money (annual variation of M1 money in %) -10.3 13.1 25.4 4.7 39.6 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 1.0 2.0 2.0 4.3 0.5 2.7 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 0.7 2.2 3.0 5.6 -1.7 - - - - -
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 4.23 3.90 3.45 0.95 0.14 0.42 0.93 1.80 2.64 2.97
Stock Market (variation of HSI in %) 4.5 34.2 39.3 -48.3 52.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, eop) 7.75 7.77 7.80 7.75 7.76 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
Exchange Rate (HKD per USD, average) 7.78 7.77 7.80 7.79 7.75 7.78 7.79 7.79 7.79 7.79
External Sector
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 20.2 22.9 25.5 29.3 18.3 19.2 20.3 20.6 21.6 17.7
Trade Balance (USD bn) -7.6 -14.0 -19.7 -23.1 -26.9 -37.8 -46.9 -44.4 -42.4 -53.8
Exports (USD bn) 290 318 346 365 322 377 414 438 473 512
Imports (USD bn) 297 332 366 388 349 414 461 484 515 558
International Reserves (USD bn) 124 133 153 183 256 283 310 311 349 373
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) -2.4 2.5 8.0 6.5 5.7 4.3 4.1 5.1 4.5 4.1
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) -0.9 1.3 1.9 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8
91-day HIBOR (%, eop) 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.57 0.33 0.42 0.41 0.46 0.57 0.93
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 11.4 3.2 31.5 17.3 12.4 16.3 11.9 16.2 14.7 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -1.4 -0.1 0.3

1 | Real GDP | 1995-2014 | % variation 2 | Real GDP | Q1 07-Q4 11 | % variation Real GDP growth in %
12 15 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 5.3 4.3
World
8 10 Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.8 4.5
Capital Economics 6.5 4.0
4 5
0 0 Daiwa Capital Markets 3.5 2.5
DBS Bank 7.0 4.5
-4 -5 Deutsche Bank 6.2 5.0
Hong Kong Goldman Sachs 6.0 5.0
Asia (ex Japan)
World Hang Seng Bank 6.0 4.5
-8 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 5.4 4.7
ING 6.2 5.8
JPMorgan 6.6 4.1
3 | GDP 2010 | evolution of forecasts 4 | GDP 2011 | evolution of forecasts Morgan Stanley 6.0 4.0
8 8 Standard Chartered Bank 6.0 5.0
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus UBS 6.0 4.3
Minimum Minimum United Overseas Bank 5.5 4.5
6 6
Summary
Minimum 3.5 2.5
4 4
Maximum 7.0 5.8
Median 6.0 4.5
2 2
Consensus 5.9 4.5
History
30 days ago 5.7 4.5
0 0 60 days ago 5.6 4.5
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 90 days ago 5.4 4.6
Government (Sep. 2010) 5.0-6.0 -
IMF(Oct. 2010) 6.0 4.7
12 20 ADB (Sep. 2010) 5.8 4.3
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
8
10
0
Notes and sources
-10 General:
-4
Hong Kong
sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
(C&SD) and the Treasury of Hong Kong (Treasury). See below for details.
-8 -20
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.

Source: C&SD.
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
4 8
18 months.
8 Gross fixed investment, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
2 4 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: C&SD.
11 Consolidated fiscal balance, % of GDP. Source: Treasury.
2010
2010
last 18 months.
2011 2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
0 0 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Consolidated fiscal balance, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts

Consumption Investment Unemployment Fiscal Balance

% variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) 5.6 5.3 10.5 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -
Capital Economics 5.5 4.4 6.5 4.0 - - -1.0 0.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.5 3.7 9.3 4.5 4.5 4.1 0.5 1.0
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - - - 4.2 4.0 - -
Credit Suisse 4.8 4.2 8.1 6.9 4.0 3.8 -1.4 -0.7
Daiwa Capital Markets 4.6 3.7 12.7 12.0 - - -2.1 -1.6
DBS Bank 6.3 4.6 14.1 9.8 4.0 3.5 - -
Deutsche Bank 6.8 4.6 9.5 15.9 4.5 4.0 2.3 1.9
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank 5.2 4.0 13.0 7.8 4.0 4.0 - -
HSBC 5.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 4.0 4.2 -1.4 -0.3
ING 4.7 5.5 7.6 7.1 4.9 4.5 - -
JPMorgan - - - - - - -1.5 -0.7
Morgan Stanley 4.8 4.0 9.7 5.7 - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank - - - - - - - -
UBS 5.2 4.5 9.4 6.6 - - -1.4 -1.5
United Overseas Bank - - - - 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.5
Wing Hang Bank 8.0 - 9.9 - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 4.5 3.7 6.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 -2.1 -1.6
Maximum 8.0 5.5 14.1 15.9 4.9 4.5 2.3 1.9
Median 5.2 4.3 9.5 7.1 4.1 4.0 -1.4 -0.3
Consensus 5.5 4.4 9.9 8.1 4.2 3.9 -0.6 -0.2
History
30 days ago 5.3 4.3 9.5 8.1 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.2
60 days ago 5.1 4.3 9.1 7.5 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1
90 days ago 5.2 4.4 8.4 6.8 4.4 4.0 -0.5 -0.1

20 8 10
10 5
6
0 0
4
-10 -5
Hong Kong Hong Kong Hong Kong

-20 2 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
6 7 2
2010
2011
3 6
0
0 5
-2
-3 4
2010 2010
2011 2011
-6 3 -4

15 9
Hong Kong
10 6
5 3
Daiwa Capital Markets 3.0 2.6
0 0 DBS Bank 3.0 3.0
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
Goldman Sachs 3.3 3.5
-5 -3 Hang Seng Bank 2.2 3.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 2.4 2.9
ING 2.5 2.1
JPMorgan 2.3 2.3
Morgan Stanley 2.8 3.0
6 9
Maximum Standard Chartered Bank 2.5 4.0
Consensus
Minimum
UBS 2.5 2.1
3 6 Wing Hang Bank - -
Summary
Minimum 2.2 2.1
Maximum 3.3 5.1
0 3 Median 2.6 3.0
Consensus 2.7 3.0
Maximum History
Consensus 30 days ago 2.7 3.1
Minimum
-3 0 60 days ago 2.7 3.0
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 90 days ago 2.8 2.9
Government (Sep. 2010) 2.3 -
IMF (Oct. 2010) 2.7 3.0
6 50
ADB (Sep. 2010) 2.6 2.8
25
2
0
0
-2
-4 -25 Notes and sources

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | HSI monetary sector data are from the Census and Statistics Department
11,000 30,000 Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). See
below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Fore-
cast.
9,000 25,000 15 Inflation, annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).
Source: C&SD.
16 Quarterly inflation, year-on-year variation in consumer price index
7,000 20,000 (CPI) in % (eop). Source: C&SD.
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-2009. Source:
5,000 15,000 C&SD.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %.1995-2009 Source: HKMA.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
3,000 10,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
22 Daily index levels, Hang Seng Index (HSI). Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: Hang Seng Bank.

10 6
% HKD per USD
ANZ 0.50 - 7.75 7.80
4
6
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - 7.80 7.80
Capital Economics - - 7.80 7.80
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 0.60 - 7.76 7.75
4
Core Pacific-Yamaichi - - 7.80 7.80
2
Credit Suisse 0.50 1.80 7.80 7.80
2 Daiwa Capital Markets - - 7.78 7.80
DBS Bank 0.25 - 7.75 7.75
Deutsche Bank 0.50 - 7.80 7.80
0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Goldman Sachs 0.50 0.50 7.80 7.80
Hang Seng Bank - - 7.80 7.80
HSBC 0.30 0.50 7.80 7.80
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst ING 0.40 1.10 7.75 7.75
4 5 JPMorgan - - 7.78 7.80
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus Morgan Stanley 0.45 1.30 7.80 7.80
Minimum
Minimum
4 Standard Chartered Bank 0.30 0.30 7.78 7.76
3 UBS 0.25 1.00 7.78 7.78
3
Wing Hang Bank - - 7.80 -
2 Summary
2 Minimum 0.25 0.30 7.75 7.75
Maximum 0.60 1.80 7.80 7.80
1 Median 0.48 1.00 7.80 7.80
1
Consensus 0.42 0.93 7.79 7.79
History
0 0 30 days ago 0.42 1.13 7.79 7.79
60 days ago 0.48 1.21 7.79 7.79
90 days ago 0.48 1.50 7.79 7.79
27 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | HKD per USD
7.85 7.85
7.80 7.80
7.75 7.75
Notes and sources

General:
7.70 7.70 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 monetary and external sector data are from the Census and Statistics
Department Hong Kong (C&SD) and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
(HKMA). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
29 | HKD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | HKD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
7.85 7.85 23 Interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA.
24 Quarterly interest rate, 91-day HIBOR in % (eop). Source: HKMA
7.80 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: HKMA.
7.80
28 Quarterly exchange rate, HKD per USD (eop). Source: HKMA.
7.75 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: HKMA.
7.75 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. 1995-2010. Source:
C&SD.
7.70
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: C&SD.
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
Minimum Minimum during the last 18 months.
7.70 7.65 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: C&SD.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 36 International reserves in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011
forecast during the last 18 months.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank of China (Hong Kong) - - -32.3 -30.3 341 385 374 415 - -
Capital Economics - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 18.8 21.9 -46.9 -42.2 387 403 434 445 280 310
Credit Suisse 30.1 30.6 -27.8 -32.2 375 423 402 456 304 353
Daiwa Capital Markets 14.3 10.1 -39.5 -46.2 360 381 399 427 291 326
DBS Bank 22.0 26.0 -63.0 -88.0 380 429 443 517 285 330
Deutsche Bank 6.6 11.6 -47.6 -48.0 387 426 435 474 235 218
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - - -
Hang Seng Bank - - -41.8 -47.0 386 417 428 464 - -
HSBC 21.8 17.7 -33.3 -46.2 391 437 424 483 266 279
ING 26.0 28.0 -32.0 -37.0 368 413 400 450 310 335
JPMorgan 19.6 19.2 -37.0 -51.1 372 425 409 476 296 331
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank 21.7 24.9 - - - - - - - -
UBS 14.7 12.3 -43.0 -47.4 392 413 435 461 - -
United Overseas Bank 15.5 21.3 - - - - - - - -
Wing Hang Bank - - -10.0 - 380 - 390 - - -
Summary
Minimum 6.6 10.1 -63.0 -88.0 341 381 374 415 235 218
Maximum 30.1 30.6 -10.0 -30.3 392 437 443 517 310 353
Median 19.6 21.3 -38.2 -46.2 380 417 417 461 288 328
Consensus 19.2 20.3 -37.8 -46.9 377 414 414 461 283 310
History
30 days ago 18.7 20.4 -41.8 -46.2 369 408 411 454 281 304
60 days ago 19.7 22.0 -42.2 -48.1 363 403 406 451 268 304
90 days ago 20.4 22.8 -41.7 -47.5 362 402 404 449 278 302
15 600 20
Trade Balance
Hong Kong
Exports
Asia (ex Japan)
10 Imports
400 15
200 10
0 5
-5
Hong Kong
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 -200 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves | evol. of fcst
40 30 350
15 300
30
0 250
20
-15 200
2010
2011 Hong Kong 2010
Asia (ex Japan) 2011
10 -30 150
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1995 2000 2005 2010 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Fact Sheet
General Data Hong Kong in the Region
Official name: Hong Kong Special Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Administrative Region
Capital: Hong Kong
Other cities: Hong Kong Island (1.3 m) Korea
Other Korea
10%
Other
13%
11%
Kowloon (2.0 m) 2%
Indonesia
Indonesia
New Territories (3.7 m) 7%
6%
Area (km2): 1104.0 China

43%
Population (million, 2009): 7.0 India
Population density (per km2, 2009): 6361.4 15%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 0.5

China
54%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2002): 6.5 37% Hong Kong
2%
Language: Cantonese, English Hong Kong
Measures: Metric system and 0.2%
Chinese standard weights

Telecommunication (2009) GDP by Sector | share in % GDP by Expenditure | share in %

Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 59.7 2004 2009 100%
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 174 100%
Commerce
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 61.2
31.8 75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 29.3 32.4
75% Services
50%
18.9 17.5
Energy (2007) Industry
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 1,129 9.2 7.6
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 36.6
Finance and Real
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 38.5 25%
Estate
34.5 37.5
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 325 0%
Other
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 82.9 2003 2005 2007 2009
Private Consumption Government Consumption
5.6 5.0
0% Investment Net exports
Airports: 2
Trade Structure
Roadways (km): 2,049
Chief Ports: Hong Kong
Primary markets | share in %
EU-27 EU-27
12% Japan USA 7% Japan
USA 4% 5% 10%
11% Other
12%
Political Data
Other
11% Imports
Chief Executive: Donald T. Yam-kuen Exports
Last elections: March 2007 Other
Other
Asia
Next elections: March 2012 Asia 19%
10% China China
Monetary Authority Chief Executive: Joseph Yam 52% 47%

Moody’s: Aa2 Positive
S&P: AA+ Stable Capital Other Foodstuffs
Fitch Ratings: AA Stable Goods manufactures Fuels 4%
33% 57% 3%
Consumer Raw
Goods materials
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Consum
26%
Imports 36%
er
• Model free trade policy setting • Economic policy constrained Goods
30%
by exchange rate system
• Low tax environment Raw
• Interference from Beijing materials
Other
• Highly skilled labour force 36% Capital
increases political uncertainty 1%
Goods
31%

FOCUSECONOMICS India November 2010
India
India
Outlook stable
• The end of a good monsoon season augurs for a generous autumn
harvest this year, with government estimates projecting it to be
approximately 10% larger than the previous year. The good harvest
bodes well for GDP growth, as agriculture is an important sector. In
addition, ample food supplies promise to ease price pressures,
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages somewhat reducing the need for the Central Bank to continue
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 tightening its monetary policy.
Population (million): 1,040 1,137 1,236
GDP (USD bn): 543 1,079 2,230
• Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 8.3%
GDP per capita (USD): 520 945 1,797
GDP growth (%): 5.9 8.5 8.5 this fiscal year, which is unchanged over last month’s projection.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.3 -4.6 -4.4 For 2011/12, the panel sees economic growth at 8.4%.
Inflation (WPI, %): 5.2 5.1 5.4
Current Account (% of GDP): 0.7 -1.9 -2.2
External Debt (% of GDP): 20.4 18.9 14.4 • Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September,
thus ending the downward trend in place since May. Consensus
Forecast panellists expect wholesale price inflation to average 7.9%
this fiscal year. For 2011/12, the panel sees inflation falling to 5.5%.
Gerardo Morán REAL SECTOR | Industrial production slows to 15-month low

Senior Economist In August, industrial output expanded 5.6% over the same month last year,
according to the so-called quick estimate for the index of industrial production.
The reading represented nearly a third of the 15.2% expansion recorded in
July (previously reported: +13.8% year-on-year) and fell well short of market
expectations, which had industrial output rising 9.5%.
The deceleration over the previous month was broad-based. The manufacturing
Industrial Production | variation in % sector, which accounts for over three quarters of total industrial output, slowed
sharply and grew only 5.9%, well below the 16.7% expansion recorded in July.
20.0
17.7
Year-on-Year Annual Average Meanwhile, mining added 7.0% year-on-year (July: +9.9% yoy), whereas
16.3 electricity production grew a paltry 1.0% (July: +3.7% yoy). On a use-based
14.7 14.5 15.2 15.2
15.0
classification, the monthly slowdown was mostly driven by a drop in the
12.0
10.6 10.2
11.5
production of capital goods, which swung from an impressive 72.0% expansion
9.3
10.0
in July to a 2.6% contraction. As a result of the weak figure tallied in August,
%
5.8 5.6 annual average growth in industrial production moderated from 12.8% in July
5.0
to 12.3% in August.
0.0
Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial production to expand 8.9% in
the current fiscal year. Moreover, the panel anticipates the overall economy to
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production grow 8.3% this fiscal year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
index in %.
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and
the FY 2011/12, the panel expects industrial production to expand 8.4%.
FocusEconomics calculations.
MONETARY SECTOR | Downward trend in wholesale prices halts in

September
In August, the consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI IW) remained
flat over the previous month, which came in well below the 2.30% increase
recorded in July. Owing to the flat monthly reading, annual inflation fell from
11.3% in July to 9.9% in August, marking the lowest level in over a year.

Inflation | Wholesale Price Index However, the more recent and comprehensive wholesale price index suggests
that the downward trend in consumer prices may have come to a halt. In
2.0 1.84 12.0 September, wholesale prices added 0.57% over the previous month, which
1.46 1.43
contrasted the 0.21% price drop recorded in August. The figure mostly showed
9.0 how higher prices for non-manufactured food products were partially
1.0
0.74
0.86
% compensated by lower prices for fuel.
0.57
0.46 0.46 0.43
% 0.38 0.36 6.0
0.00 As a result of the monthly figure, annual wholesale inflation inched up from
0.0
3.0 8.5% in August to 8.6% in September. Furthermore, annual average wholesale
-0.21
price inflation increased for the tenth consecutive month, jumping from 7.6% in
-1.0
Month-on-Month (left scale) Year-on-Year (right scale)
0.0 August to 8.2% in September.
The Central Bank expects wholesale price inflation to moderate to 6.0% by the
Note: Monthly and annual variation of wholesale price index in %.
Source: Reserve Bank of India and FocusEconomics calculations. end of the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2011. Consensus Forecast
panellists expect wholesale inflation to average 7.9% this current fiscal year,
which is down 0.2 percentage points over last month. For the financial year
2011/12, the panel expects average wholesale inflation to moderate to 5.5%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Exports accelerate again in August

In August, exports rose 22.5% over the same month last year to reach USD
16.6 billion. The reading represented an improvement compared to the 13.2%
Merchandise Trade | USD bn expansion tallied in July and marked in fact, the eighth consecutive month of
exports growing at double-digit pace and. Nonetheless, despite the strong
40
Trade Balance Exports Imports growth observed in recent months, exports are still well below pre-crisis levels,
30 with the three-month sum of exports at USD 50.6 billion in August, which is still
below the USD 56.9 billion peak reached in July 2008.
20
10
Meanwhile, growth in imports remained broadly stable at 32.2% year-on-year
0 (July: +34.3% yoy) to reach USD 29.7 billion, underscoring the strength of the
country’s domestic sector. As in recent months, the figure was driven by non-
-10
oil imports, which soared 41.1% over the same month last year. As a result, the
-20
trade deficit widened a notch from USD 12.9 billion in July to USD 13.0 billion.
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion. During the last twelve months exports have amounted to USD 188.6 billion.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
The government is targeting exports to reach USD 200 billion this current fiscal
year, which will end on March 2011. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate
exports will expand 19.5% this fiscal year and 16.6% in 2011/12.

Economic Indicators | 2005/06 - 2014/15
Annual Data 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Real Sector
Population (million) 1,099 1,118 1,137 1,156 1,175 1,195 1,215 1,235 1,256 1,277
GDP per capita (USD) 699 779 1,081 1,049 1,118 1,356 1,564 1,799 2,018 2,249
GDP (USD bn) 768 871 1,229 1,212 1,314 1,621 1,901 2,222 2,535 2,873
Private Consumption (annual variation in % 8.5 8.3 9.7 6.8 4.3 6.9 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.1
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 15.3 14.3 15.2 4.0 7.2 11.6 12.2 12.5 12.9 12.5
Agriculture (annual variation in %) 5.2 3.7 4.7 1.6 0.2 - - - - -
Industry (annual variation in %) 9.3 12.7 9.5 3.9 9.3 - - - - -
Services (annual variation in %) 11.1 10.2 10.5 9.8 8.5 - - - - -
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 8.2 11.5 8.5 2.7 10.5 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.5 8.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 -3.6 -2.6 -6.0 -6.6 -5.6 -5.1 -4.5 -3.6 -3.4
Inflation (CPI, annual average in %) 4.4 6.7 6.2 9.1 12.3 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual average in %) 4.4 5.4 4.7 7.3 3.5 7.9 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.3
RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 6.50 7.75 7.75 5.00 5.00 6.39 7.07 7.12 6.81 6.95
Stock Market (var. of BSE SENSEX in %) 42.3 46.7 47.1 -52.4 81.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, eop) 44.6 43.6 40.0 51.0 45.1 44.3 42.5 41.7 41.7 41.2
Exchange Rate (INR per USD, average) 44.3 45.3 40.3 46.0 47.4 44.7 43.4 42.1 41.7 41.5
External Sector
Current Account (% of GDP) -1.3 -1.1 -1.4 -2.5 -3.3 -2.8 -2.5 -2.1 -1.9 -1.8
Current Account (USD bn) -9.9 -9.6 -17.0 -29.8 -43.3 -44.6 -47.8 -46.7 -48.3 -52.6
Trade Balance (USD bn) -41 -54 -87 -118 -104 -137 -160 -168 -188 -227
Exports (USD bn) 103 125 163 185 171 204 238 270 299 334
Imports (USD bn) 143 179 251 304 275 342 399 439 486 546
Inflation (WPI, annual average in %) 0.3 4.3 9.5 10.6 9.0 6.3 5.8 5.6 5.9 5.7
RBI Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 4.75 4.75 5.00 5.25 6.00 6.29 6.39 6.60 6.75 7.00
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 17.7 16.3 14.7 14.5 15.2 11.5 5.8 15.2 5.6 -
Inflation (WPI, mom variation in %) 0.38 1.43 0.00 0.74 1.84 0.36 0.43 0.86 -0.21 0.57
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.9 8.5 9.7 10.2 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.0 8.5 8.6

12 15
India Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz 8.5 8.0
World
AnandRathi 6.5 9.0
10
BofA Merrill Lynch 8.4 8.0
6
5
0 Crisil 8.2 -
India DBS Bank 8.8 8.5
Asia (ex Japan)
World Deutsche Bank 8.0 8.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 8.8 8.3
ING Financial Markets 8.2 8.7
JPMorgan 8.3 8.5
Kotak Securities 8.3 7.7
10 10
RBC Capital Markets 8.1 8.0
9
Standard Chartered Bank 8.1 8.5
8
State Bank of India 8.5 -
UBS 9.0 8.0
8 Summary
Minimum 6.5 7.7
6 Maximum 9.0 9.0
7 Median 8.4 8.5
Maximum Maximum Consensus 8.3 8.4
Consensus Consensus
History
Minimum Minimum
4 6 30 days ago 8.3 8.4
90 days ago 8.2 8.5
Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) 8.5 -
12 30
India
IMF (Oct. 2010) 9.7 8.4
India
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ADB (Sep. 2010) 8.5 8.7
20
8
10
Notes and sources
4
General:
0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
sector data are from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme
Implementation (MOSPI) and the Ministry of Finance. See below for details.
0 -10
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
Source: MOSPI. Quarters correspond to calendar year (i.e. Q1=Jan.-Mar.)
8.0 14 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
7.5 12 7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
18 months.
last 18 months.
7.0 10 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: MOSPI.
10 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18
months.
11 Industrial production, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18
6.5 8
months.
2010
2010 12 Central government balance, % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance.
2011
2011 13 Central government balance, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the
6.0 6 last 18 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Central government balance, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.


Consumption Investment Industry Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of GDP
Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz - - - - - - -5.5 -4.5
AnandRathi 6.3 6.5 12.0 16.0 6.1 7.2 -5.6 -4.3
BofA Merrill Lynch - - - - 8.2 8.8 - -
Capital Economics 7.0 7.0 12.0 10.0 - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.5 7.5 14.0 15.5 9.4 9.4 -5.4 -4.8
Credit Suisse 5.4 6.2 8.5 8.8 9.9 8.5 -5.1 -5.5
Crisil - - 12.5 - 8.6 - -5.0 -
Daiwa Capital Markets 8.9 8.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 10.2 -4.9 -4.8
DBS Bank - - - - 7.7 8.7 - -
Deutsche Bank - - 13.2 11.5 - - -5.7 -5.6
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - -
HSBC 7.0 6.5 16.0 14.0 10.6 6.6 -5.5 -4.8
ING Financial Markets 7.5 9.0 11.0 16.0 9.5 10.0 - -
JPMorgan - - - - 8.7 8.8 -5.1 -4.9
Kotak Securities 6.9 6.5 7.5 8.5 8.5 - - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - -7.6 -7.3
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - -6.0 -5.0
State Bank of India - - - - 9.7 - - -
UBS - - - - 9.8 8.8 -5.5 -4.8
Summary
Minimum 5.4 6.2 7.5 8.5 6.1 6.6 -7.6 -7.3
Maximum 8.9 9.0 16.0 16.0 10.6 10.2 -4.9 -4.3
Median 7.0 6.8 12.0 11.5 9.4 8.8 -5.5 -4.8
Consensus 6.9 7.2 11.6 12.2 8.9 8.7 -5.6 -5.1
History
30 days ago 6.9 7.2 11.6 12.1 9.0 8.7 -5.6 -5.1
60 days ago 7.0 7.2 11.8 12.2 9.3 8.8 -5.6 -5.1
90 days ago 7.3 7.6 11.8 12.2 9.3 8.9 -5.4 -4.8
9 | Industry | % variation 10 | Industry 2010 | evol. of forecasts 11 | Industry 2011 | evol. of forecasts
16 12 12
Maximum Maximum
India
Consensus Consensus
Asia (ex Japan)
Minimum Minimum
12 10 10
8 8 8
4 6 6
0 4 4
1995 2000 2005 2010 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep
12 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 13 | Fiscal Balance 2010 | evol. of fcst 14 | Fiscal Balance 2011 | evol. of fcst
3 -2 -2 Maximum
India Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Asia (ex Japan)
World Minimum Minimum
0
-4 -4
-3
-6 -6
-6
-9 -8 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

15 | Inflation | 1995 - 2014 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Inflation | ann. avg. variation of wholesale price index in %
12 15
India
Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12
Asia (ex Japan) Allianz - -
AnandRathi 6.9 4.5
9 10
BofA Merrill Lynch - -
Capital Economics - -
6 5
Crisil 8.3 -
3 0 Daiwa Capital Markets 8.2 5.4
DBS Bank 8.0 5.3
India
Asia (ex Japan) Deutsche Bank - -
0 -5 Goldman Sachs 7.5 6.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC - -
ING Financial Markets - -
JPMorgan - -
Kotak Securities 8.4 6.6
10 8
Maximum Maximum Morgan Stanley - -
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum
8
State Bank of India - -
6 UBS - -
6 Summary
5
Minimum 6.9 4.5
Maximum 8.4 6.6
4 Median 8.2 5.5
4
Consensus 7.9 5.5
History
2 3 30 days ago 8.1 5.5
90 days ago 7.8 5.4
19 | CPI-IW | % variation 20 | Money | % variation
Reserve Bank of India (July 2010) 6.0 -
12 30
ADB (Sep. 2010) 7.5 5.5
9
20
10
3
0 0 Notes and sources

1995 2000 2005 1995 2000 2005
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 22 | Stock Market | BSE SENSEX monetary sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) , the Ministry
of Commerce and Industry and the Labour Bureau. RBI inflation forecast
10 25,000 refers to year-on-year wholesale inflation. See below for details. Forecasts
based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
20,000 15 Inflation, annual average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in

%. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry. Quarters correspond to
8
calendar year (i.e. Q1=Jan.-Mar.)
16 Quarterly inflation, average variation in wholesale price index (WPI) in
15,000 %. Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry.
6 18 Inflation, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
19 Consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW), in %. Source:
10,000
Labour Bureau.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. Source: RBI.
21 10-Year bond yield in %. Jan. 2005 until end of previous month.
4 5,000 Source: RBI.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 22 Daily index levels, BSE SENSEX. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
month. Source: Bombay Stock Exchange.

14 10
% INR per USD
12 Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz - - 44.5 44.0
8
AnandRathi 5.50 7.00 42.0 40.0
10
BofA Merrill Lynch 6.50 7.50 43.5 -
8 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 45.5 43.5
6
Credit Suisse - - 43.5 42.0
6 Crisil - - 43.8 -
Daiwa Capital Markets - - 45.0 43.3
DBS Bank 6.50 - 43.5 -
4 4
Deutsche Bank 6.75 - 44.0 42.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 6.25 7.50 45.5 43.5
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst ING Financial Markets 6.50 7.00 43.5 42.0
8 10 JPMorgan 6.50 - 44.5 -
Maximum Kotak Securities 6.50 7.00 45.5 45.0
Consensus Morgan Stanley - - 45.4 42.2
Minimum
RBC Capital Markets 6.25 7.00 44.0 42.0
6 8 Standard Chartered Bank 6.50 - 44.0 -
State Bank of India - - 44.0 -
UBS - - 46.5 41.0
Summary
4 6 Minimum 5.50 6.50 42.0 40.0
Maximum 6.75 7.50 46.5 45.0
Maximum Median 6.50 7.00 44.0 42.1
Consensus
Minimum
Consensus 6.39 7.07 44.3 42.5
2 4 History
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 30 days ago 6.36 7.04 44.7 42.6
60 days ago 6.33 7.16 44.2 42.3
90 days ago 6.30 7.16 43.9 42.1
27 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | INR per USD
60 55
50
50
45
40
40
Notes and sources

30 35 General:
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Reserve Bank of India
(RBI) and the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. See below for details.
29 | INR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | INR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
60 50 Maximum 23 Interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source: RBI.

Maximum Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, RBI Repurchasing Rate in % (eop). Source:
Consensus Minimum
Minimum
RBI.
45
50
27 Exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, INR per USD (eop). Source: RBI.
40 40 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: RBI.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Department
of Commerce.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: RBI.
34 Current account in USD billion, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
30 35 during the last 18 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Deparment of Commerce.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: RBI.


Individual Forecasts 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12
Allianz -26.0 -37.0 - - - - - - 265 275
AnandRathi -33.6 -17.8 -113 -113 186 233 298 346 311 373
BofA Merrill Lynch -47.0 -53.2 -145 -170 212 235 357 405 299 -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. -49.0 -59.7 -144 -159 209 251 353 410 261 264
Credit Suisse -53.4 -34.5 -135 -141 202 247 337 387 315 364
Crisil -47.7 - -142 - 209 - 351 - - -
Daiwa Capital Markets -47.5 -45.5 -139 -153 214 246 353 399 275 291
DBS Bank -35.0 -63.0 -140 -193 214 250 354 443 290 350
Deutsche Bank -40.4 -48.9 -126 -142 179 197 305 339 293 299
Goldman Sachs -48.6 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC -63.1 -73.7 -143 -165 212 237 354 402 253 248
ING Financial Markets -38.0 -43.5 -133 -163 194 229 327 392 310 350
JPMorgan -52.5 -60.7 -146 -181 226 267 372 449 274 321
Kotak Securities -58.0 -65.7 -150 -183 208 237 358 420 - -
Morgan Stanley -45.4 -43.7 -131 -154 - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets -24.3 -22.8 - - - - - - - -
Standard Chartered Bank -46.0 -32.4 - - - - - - - -
State Bank of India -46.0 - -130 - 189 - 325 - 330 -
UBS -45.4 -62.0 -132 -165 204 227 336 392 272 305
Summary
Minimum -63.1 -73.7 -150 -193 179 197 298 339 253 248
Maximum -24.3 -17.8 -113 -113 226 267 372 449 330 373
Median -46.0 -47.2 -139 -163 209 237 352 401 290 305
Consensus -44.6 -47.8 -137 -160 204 238 342 399 288 313
History
30 days ago -43.3 -47.6 -135 -161 206 245 341 406 291 316
60 days ago -42.1 -45.5 -133 -157 205 243 338 401 294 321
90 days ago -41.3 -46.4 -133 -157 205 243 338 400 294 320
10 600 20
Trade Balance
India Exports
Asia (ex Japan) Imports
400
15
5
200
10
0
0
5
-200
India
Asia (ex Japan)
-5 -400 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
-10 40 60
-20
20 40
-30
0 20
-40
2010 India
2011 India Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
-50 -20 0

Fact Sheet
General Data India in the Region

Official name: Republic of India
Capital: New Delhi (13.8 m) Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Other cities: Greater Mumbai (16.4 m)
Korea
Kolkata (13.2 m) 2%
Other
Other
10%
Bangalura (5.7m) Korea
10%
16%
Area (km2): 3,166,414 Indonesia

7% Indonesia
Population (million, 2009): 1,156 6%
China
Population density (per km2, 2009): 365.1 43%
Population growth rate (%, 2009): 1.4 India

15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009): 66.1
Illiteracy rate (%, 2001): 39.0 India China
53%
Language: Hindi, English and 38%
21 other official languages

Measures: Metric system
Calendar: Year begins on 21 or
22 March of Gregorian calendar
Time: 5:30 hours ahead of GMT

100%
2005/06 2009/10
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 43.8 100% Agriculture, forestry and
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 5.1 18.1 14.6 fishing
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 0.7 Manufacturing
16.1
75% 15.3
50%
Energy (2007) Trade, hotels, transport

and communication
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 13,048 25.1 26.5
25%
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 19,094 Financing, insurance,
real estate and
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 762 15.1 17.2
business services
0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 568 25%
Community, social and
personal services
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 881 13.7 13.1 -25%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,845 Other 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 2008/09
12.6 12.3 Private Consumption Government Consumption
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 1,386 0% Investment Net exports
Roadways (km): 3,320,410 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata USA USA EU-27
13% 7% 17%
EU-27
21% Japan
Political Data 3%
Prime Minister: Manmohan Singh Other Exports Imports China

36% Japan 15%
Last elections: 19 July 2007 3% Other
Next elections: July 2012 44%
China
Central Bank Governor: Duvvuri Subbarao 15% Other
Other Asia
Asia 14%
12%

Moody’s: Baa3 Stable
S&P: BBB- Stable Precious or
Fitch Ratings: BBB- Stable semiprecio
us stones
15%
Others Mineral fuels
30% and oils
Mineral 35%
fuels and
oils
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 15% Imports
Electrical
• Huge domestic market • Excessive bureaucracy Others
61%
machinery
Fertilisers
and
equipment 4% Electrical
• Skilled labour force in key • Protectionist trade policy Nuclear 5% machinery Precious or
industries, particularly software reactors and Nuclear semipreciou
• Weak infrastructure and
equipmentreactors and s stones
development machinery
8% machinery
9%
14%
4%
• Electricity/energy shortages
• High catch-up growth potential
• Low inflationary environment

FOCUSECONOMICS Indonesia November 2010
Indonesia
Indonesia
Outlook stable
• Recent data are showing mixed signals but, on balance, continue to
point towards sustained growth in domestic demand in the third
quarter. Moreover, the robust domestic sector along with a low
dependence on external demand would shield the country in the event
of a global economic deceleration.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists left their forecast for this year
Population (million): 211 226 240 unchanged over the previous month and anticipate the economy to
GDP (USD bn): 199 410 844
GDP per capita (USD): 940 1,810 3,507
grow 6.0%. Next year, the panel expects the economy to grow 6.2%.
GDP growth (%): 4.6 5.6 6.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -0.9 -1.1 • Inflation fell to 5.8% in September, easing for the first time in six
Inflation (%): 7.9 8.9 5.5
months. Yet, the panel anticipates inflation will hover around 6.0%
External Debt (% of GDP): 71.1 37.3 22.2 for the rest of the year and average 5.2% this year, which is 0.1
percentage points above last month’s forecast. Next year, the panel
sees inflation averaging 6.1%.
Gerardo Morán REAL SECTOR | Despite mixed signals, growth remains strong in the
Senior Economist third quarter
In August, real retail sales soared 31.2% over the same month the previous
year according to Bank Indonesia’s Retail Sales Survey (RSS). The reading
marked an improvement over the 24.6% expansion recorded in July and
represented, in fact, the thirteenth month of double-digit growth rates.
The acceleration over the previous month was boosted by the fact that holy
month of Ramadan, during which Muslims usually spend more on food products
and gifts, took place a few weeks earlier than last year. Consequently, sales for
6.0
5.3
food and tobacco led the development by expanding an annual 26.5%, up
5.0
4.7
from the 24.4% recorded in July. Moreover, clothing sales also rose sharply,
4.0 4.1
3.8 3.8
4.0 3.4 3.5 3.7 adding 109.9% annually (July: 85.0% year-on-year).
% 2.5
2.0 Owing to the strong August reading, annual average growth in real retail sales
0.7 rose from 26.0% in July to 28.4%. Moreover, according to the RSS, retailers
0.0 remain confident that sales will continue rising in the coming months, all which
-0.2
bodes very well for private consumption in the coming months.
YoY YoY Annual Average
-2.0
Contrasting the strong developments in retail sales, in August industrial
production added only 2.5% over the same month last year, which came in
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in-
dex in %.
below the 3.7% expansion observed in July. However, despite the deceleration,
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations. annual average growth in industrial production continued to trend upwards,
rising from 3.5% in July to 3.6% in August.
Consensus Forecasts panellists see industrial production growing 4.8% this

year and 5.5% next year. Moreover, the panel expects GDP to grow 6.0% this
year, which unchanged over the previous month’s projection. Next year, the
panel anticipates the economy to expand 6.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases for the first time in six months
In September, consumer prices rose 0.44% over the previous month. The figure
nearly halved the 0.76% price increase tallied in August and undershot market
expectations, which had seen prices rising 0.58%. The deceleration over the
Inflation | Consumer Price Index previous month reflected one-off developments that took place in August, in
particular the first raise in electricity tariffs in seven years, as the government
2.0 8.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) cut subsidies.
1.57
1.5
1.05
0.97
6.0 Meanwhile, September’s figure was primarily driven by higher prices for clothing
1.0 0.84
0.76
%
as well as non-prepared food. As a result of the relatively subdued monthly
%
0.5
0.44 reading, annual inflation eased for the first time in six months, falling from
0.33 0.31 0.29
0.19 0.15 4.0
6.4% in August to 5.8% in September. Meanwhile, annual average inflation
0.0
-0.03
accelerated slightly to 4.2% (August: 3.9% year-on-year).
-0.16
-0.5 2.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Against this backdrop, at its most recent meeting on 5 October the Central
Bank left the benchmark rate unchanged for the fourteenth consecutive month
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %. at a record-low of 6.50%. The decision was broadly expected by the market, as
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS).
monetary authorities have stated their preference to use other monetary
variables. In September, the Central Bank raised the reserve ratio for
commercial banks from 5.0% to 8.0%.
The Central Bank has an inflation target of 5% ±1% for both this and next year.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 5.2% this year,
which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For next year,
panellists see inflation rising to an average of 6.1%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
Population (million) 220 223 226 229 231 234 237 240 243 246
GDP (USD bn) 272 345 410 486 537 654 758 846 932 1,031
Government Consumption (ann. var. in %) 6.6 9.6 3.9 10.4 15.7 - - - - -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 10.9 2.6 9.3 11.9 3.3 8.8 9.9 10.1 10.1 10.4
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 4.6 4.6 4.7 3.7 2.1 4.8 5.5 4.8 4.7 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.5 -1.0 -1.2 0.0 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 11.1 28.1 27.6 -0.9 8.3 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 10.5 13.1 6.0 9.8 5.0 5.2 6.1 5.6 5.7 5.2
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 16.3 13.5 13.4 25.9 4.6 - - - - -
BI Rate (%, eop) 12.75 9.75 8.00 9.25 6.50 6.72 7.37 7.53 7.52 7.64
Stock Market (variation of IDX in %) 16.2 55.3 52.1 -50.6 87.0 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, eop) 9,917 9,156 9,382 11,055 9,447 8,913 8,888 8,984 9,205 9,151
Exchange Rate (IDR per USD, average) 10,207 9,668 9,642 10,188 10,460 9,184 8,900 8,936 9,095 9,178
External Sector
Trade Balance (USD bn) 17.5 29.7 32.8 22.9 35.1 30.2 28.9 32.1 33.4 35.6
Exports (USD bn) 87 104 118 140 119 146 164 183 205 223
Imports (USD bn) 69 74 85 117 84 116 135 151 171 194
International Reserves (USD bn) 34.7 42.6 56.9 51.6 66.1 80.8 88.7 97.9 99.4 103
BI Rate (%, eop) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.72 6.93 7.23 7.36 7.37
Industrial Production (s.a. mom var. in %) 3.4 5.3 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.1 5.0 3.7 2.5 -
Retail Sales (annual variation in %) 36.5 40.3 40.0 28.7 26.6 26.7 24.9 24.6 31.2 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.33 0.84 0.31 -0.16 0.15 0.29 0.97 1.57 0.76 0.44

10 15
Indonesia Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
World
Bank Danamon Indonesia 6.1 6.4
10
BII 6.1 6.3
0
5
-10 Daiwa Capital Markets 6.5 6.2
0 Danareksa Securities 6.2 6.4
Indonesia DBS Bank 6.0 5.8
Asia (ex Japan) Deutsche Bank 6.0 6.5
World
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 6.1 6.4
ING 6.0 6.0
JPMorgan 6.0 5.4
Mandiri Sekuritas 5.8 6.3
7 7
OCBC Bank 6.1 6.1
6
UBS 6.0 6.0
Summary
5 Minimum 5.8 5.4
4 Maximum
Maximum 6.5 6.5
Maximum
Consensus Consensus Median 6.0 6.3
Minimum Minimum Consensus 6.0 6.2
3 4 History
60 days ago 6.0 6.2
90 days ago 5.9 6.1
15 30
Central Bank (Aug. 2010) 5.6 6.0-6.5
IMF (Oct. 2010) 6.0 6.2
10 15 ADB (Sep. 2010) 6.1 6.3
5 0
0 -15
Notes and sources
-5 -30 General:
Indonesia Indonesia Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central
-10 -45 Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: BPS.
5.5 12
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
10 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
5.0
last 18 months.
8 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
4.5 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: BPS.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: BI.
6
12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
the last 18 months.
2010 2011 2010 2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
4.0 4 18 months.
14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011
forecasts during the last 18 months.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank Danamon Indonesia 4.8 4.9 10.0 11.7 - - 7.2 6.9 -1.4 -1.2
BII 5.3 5.3 9.4 9.7 4.3 4.5 7.2 7.0 -1.2 -1.3
Capital Economics 5.5 5.6 9.0 11.0 - - - - -1.3 -1.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.8 5.1 8.3 11.0 - - 7.0 6.8 -1.1 -1.5
Credit Suisse 5.0 5.0 7.3 8.0 - - - - -2.0 -1.8
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.8 5.9 10.4 11.2 5.1 5.3 - - -0.6 -0.2
Danareksa Securities 4.8 5.0 9.8 12.9 4.3 4.4 7.4 7.2 - -
DBS Bank 4.9 4.7 7.8 8.8 - - - - -1.3 -0.8
Deutsche Bank 4.7 6.0 8.7 8.8 4.0 8.0 - - -1.7 -1.5
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.2 -
HSBC 4.7 5.0 8.7 10.0 5.5 6.0 7.5 7.2 -1.6 -1.2
ING 6.2 5.8 9.7 10.5 5.7 5.0 - - -1.6 -1.5
JPMorgan - - - - - - - - -2.0 -1.0
Mandiri Sekuritas 5.2 5.3 8.6 10.7 - - - - -2.1 -1.5
Morgan Stanley - - 8.0 10.0 - - - - -2.0 -1.5
OCBC Bank 5.2 5.6 8.0 6.0 - - 8.5 8.0 -1.5 -1.2
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - -2.0 -1.0
UBS 5.1 5.8 7.8 7.8 - - - - -1.6 -2.0
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 7.5 7.2 -2.0 -1.5
Summary
Minimum 4.7 4.7 7.3 6.0 4.0 4.4 7.0 6.8 -2.2 -2.0
Maximum 6.2 6.0 10.4 12.9 5.7 8.0 8.5 8.0 -0.6 -0.2
Median 5.0 5.3 8.7 10.0 4.7 5.2 7.4 7.2 -1.6 -1.3
Consensus 5.1 5.4 8.8 9.9 4.8 5.5 7.5 7.2 -1.6 -1.3
History
30 days ago 5.2 5.4 8.7 9.8 4.9 5.3 7.6 7.4 -1.7 -1.3
60 days ago 5.3 5.4 8.7 9.7 4.9 5.3 7.7 7.4 -1.7 -1.3
90 days ago 5.2 5.3 8.7 9.6 4.8 5.4 7.8 7.5 -1.7 -1.4

20 12 3
10 9 0
0 6 -3
-10 3 -6
Indonesia
Indonesia Indonesia Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) World
-20 0 -9
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
6 10 -0.8
2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011
5 9 -1.2
4 8 -1.6
3 7 -2.0

60 15
Indonesia
ANZ 5.9 5.0
Asia (ex Japan)
Bank Danamon Indonesia 5.0 6.3
45 10
BII 5.0 5.7
30 5
Credit Suisse - -
15 0 Danareksa Securities - -
DBS Bank 5.1 6.5
Indonesia Deutsche Bank 5.0 6.5
Asia (ex Japan)
0 -5 Goldman Sachs 5.1 6.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 5.2 6.0
ING 5.0 4.8
JPMorgan 5.3 5.9
Mandiri Sekuritas - -
10 12
Maximum Maximum Morgan Stanley 5.3 6.2
Consensus Consensus
Minimum OCBC Bank 5.0 6.7
Minimum
8
UBS 5.0 7.0
Summary
6 Minimum 4.7 4.8
4 Maximum 5.9 7.0
Median 5.1 6.1
Consensus 5.2 6.1
2 3 History
60 days ago 4.8 5.9
90 days ago 4.7 5.8
30 40
Central Bank (Aug. 2010) 5.8-6.0 -
IMF (Oct. 2010) 5.1 5.5
30 ADB (Sep. 2010) 5.2 5.7
20
20
10
10
0 -10
2000 2003 2006 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | IDX General:
1,000 4,000 real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Central
Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts based on
3,500 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
800
15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in
3,000
%. Source: BPS.
600 2,500 (CPI) in %. Source: BPS.
2,000
19 Producer price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2000-2009.
400 Source: BPS.
1,500 20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BI.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
1,000
200
22 Daily index levels, IDX. From Jan. 2008 until end of previous
month. Source: Indonesia Stock Exchange.

50 10
% IDR per USD
9
ANZ 6.75 7.75 9,250 8,900
Bank Danamon Indonesia 6.50 7.50 9,075 9,150
30
BII 6.50 7.25 9,150 9,355
8
Capital Economics 6.75 7.50 8,750 8,600
20 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.50 7.50 8,950 9,100
Credit Suisse 6.75 7.25 9,000 9,000
7
10 Daiwa Capital Markets - - 8,700 8,500
Danareksa Securities 6.50 6.75 9,214 9,345
DBS Bank 6.50 - 8,900 -
0 6
Deutsche Bank 6.50 - 8,900 8,650
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Goldman Sachs - - 8,750 8,400
HSBC 6.50 7.25 8,800 8,700
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst ING 6.50 6.50 8,900 8,900
10 10 JPMorgan 6.50 6.75 8,700 9,200
Mandiri Sekuritas 7.00 7.50 8,927 9,083
Morgan Stanley - - - -
OCBC Bank 7.00 7.50 8,843 8,598
8 8 RBC Capital Markets 7.00 8.00 8,800 8,500
Standard Chartered Bank 6.50 7.50 8,800 8,500
UBS 7.00 8.00 8,900 9,500
United Overseas Bank 7.75 - 8,950 -
6 6 Summary
Minimum 6.50 6.50 8,700 8,400
Maximum Maximum Maximum 7.75 8.00 9,250 9,500
Consensus Consensus
Median 6.50 7.50 8,900 8,900
Minimum Minimum
4 4 Consensus 6.72 7.37 8,913 8,888
30 days ago 6.81 7.48 8,972 8,916
60 days ago 6.94 7.55 8,989 8,951
27 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | IDR per USD 90 days ago 6.93 7.52 9,032 9,016
12,000 12,000
9,000 11,000
6,000 10,000
3,000 9,000
Notes and sources

0 8,000 General:
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
real sector data are from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the
Central Bank (BI, Bank Indonesia). See below for details. Forecasts
29 | IDR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | IDR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
14,000 Maximum 11,000 23 Interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). Source: BI.

Maximum
Consensus Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, BI Rate in % (eop). Source: BI.
Minimum Minimum 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop). Source: BI.
12,000 10,000
28 Quarterly exchange rate, IDR per USD (eop). Source: BI.
29 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 forecast during the last 18
months.
months.
10,000 9,000
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: BPS.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BPS.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BI.
34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
8,000 8,000
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: BPS.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BI.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Bank Danamon Indonesia 7.9 3.4 36.6 35.7 149 166 112 130 88.3 95.2
BII 4.4 4.0 14.7 11.1 152 166 138 155 85.2 90.7
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.3 0.2 30.9 26.3 146 166 116 140 85.5 96.7
Credit Suisse 4.5 2.0 34.3 35.7 143 160 109 125 75.6 80.6
Daiwa Capital Markets 7.9 4.1 31.6 28.7 152 174 121 145 90.2 108.5
Danareksa Securities 8.7 7.6 32.4 34.3 136 159 103 125 65.6 73.3
DBS Bank 5.1 1.6 - - - - - - 83.0 93.0
Deutsche Bank 13.0 17.7 - - - - - - 83.0 87.0
Goldman Sachs 11.3 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 7.1 9.2 35.1 35.2 145 154 110 119 82.4 90.8
ING 7.0 4.0 33.0 29.0 149 172 116 143 78.0 88.0
JPMorgan 3.3 -0.1 25.6 27.2 141 163 115 135 73.6 78.6
Mandiri Sekuritas 7.0 2.6 30.1 29.0 148 177 118 148 80.0 83.0
Morgan Stanley 9.0 6.7 29.9 28.2 - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 10.5 11.0 17.9 15.0 146 160 128 145 80.0 90.0
RBC Capital Markets 6.5 7.6 - - - - - - - -
UBS 9.0 7.0 40.0 40.7 146 156 106 115 81.1 86.1
Summary
Minimum 3.3 -0.1 14.7 11.1 136 154 103 115 65.6 73.3
Maximum 13.0 17.7 40.0 40.7 152 177 138 155 90.2 108.5
Median 7.1 4.1 31.6 29.0 146 164 115 137 81.8 89.0
Consensus 7.4 5.5 30.2 28.9 146 164 116 135 80.8 88.7
History
30 days ago 7.1 5.3 29.8 29.1 142 160 112 131 77.9 85.0
60 days ago 7.4 5.6 30.2 29.5 140 157 110 128 77.2 83.9
90 days ago 7.2 5.6 30.6 30.2 140 157 109 127 76.7 83.2
9 250 25
Indonesia Trade Balance Indonesia
Exports Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Imports
6 200 20
3 150 15
0 100 10
-3 50 5
-6 0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
12 30 200
2010 2011 Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan)
15 150
8
0 100
4
-15 50
Indonesia
Asia (ex Japan)
0 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Indonesia in the Region

Official name: Republic of Indonesia
Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Jakarta (12.3 m)
Other cities: Bandung (5.7 m) Korea
2%
Malaysia
Surabaya (3.9 m) 1%
Other Malaysia Korea Other
9% 2% 10% 14%
Medan (3.9 m)
Area (km2): 1,919,440
Population (million, 2009 est.): 231 India
China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 121 43%
15%

Indonesia
38%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 9.6 6% China
53%
Language: Bahasa Indonesia
Indonesia
Time: 7 hours ahead of GMT 7%

100%
2004 2009
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 69.3 100%
Agriculture
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 8.7 15.2 13.6

8.3 Mining and Quarring
75%
75% 8.8
5.4
Transport &
Energy (2007) 8.9 9.6
Communication 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 10,930 16.3 16.9 Finance, Real Rstate &
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 4,887 Business Services
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 134 Trade Hotel &

Restaurants
25%

28.0 26.2
Manufacturing Industry
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 1,043 0%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 1,243 15.5 16.7 Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 402 0% Investment Net exports
Roadways (km): 437,759 Primary markets | share in %
Chief Ports: Banjarmasin, Jakarta EU-27 EU-27
12% USA 7% Japan
5%
USA 10%
10% Japan
19%
Other
Political Data 20% China
15%
President: Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono Other Exports Imports
18%
Last elections: 8 July 2009 China
10%
Next elections: 2014
Central Bank Governor: Darmin Nasution
Other Other
Asia Asia
31% 43%

Moody’s: Ba2 Positive
S&P: BB Positive Consumer
Manufacturing
Goods
Fitch Ratings: BB+ Stable 63%
7%
Oil and
Capital
Gas
Goods
16%
21%
Strengths Weaknesses Agriculture

Exports Imports
4%
• Extensive natural resources • Widespread corruption deters
foreign investment Mining &
• Large domestic market Other
17% Raw Materials
• Weak legal framework and Others
• Diverse manufacturing sector 72%
• Guerilla activity poses
security threat

FOCUSECONOMICS Korea November 2010
Korea
Korea
Outlook stable
• Economic growth is likely to have moderated in the third quarter amid
slowing industrial activity. Moreover, consumer confidence contin-
ues to slide, suggesting weaker private consumption in the months
ahead.
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages • Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 6.0%
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For next
Population (million): 47.6 48.4 49.1 year, panellists expect growth to moderate to 4.2%.
GDP (USD bn): 596 922 1,256
GDP growth (%): 5.4 3.3 4.6 • Inflation jumped from 2.6% in August to 3.6% in September. Never-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 1.4 0.8 0.2 theless, monetary authorities halted the tightening cycle and left rates
Inflation (%): 3.2 3.0 3.0
unchanged at 2.25%, surprising market analysts who had expected
External Debt (% of GDP): 25.2 35.0 33.5 the Bank to raise rates. Panellists expect inflation to average 2.9%
this year which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s fore-
cast and to rise to 3.0% next year.
Armando Ciccarelli REAL SECTOR | Industrial production growth steps up

Senior Economist In August, industrial production rose 17.1% over the same month last year.
The figure was up from the 15.5% increase recorded in July and came in above
market expectations of a 16.4% rise.
The improvement over the previous month was broad-based, as the three main
industrial sectors improved compared to the previous month. Manufacturing,
which accounts for the bulk of industrial output, increased 17.4% annually,
Industrial Production | variation in % which was up from the 15.9% increase observed in July. Meanwhile, the min-
ing sector rose 0.3%, contrasting the 3.3% fall recorded in July and, finally,
8.0 20.0
electricity and gas supply grew 11.1% (July: +9.1% year-on-year).
MoM s.a. (left scale) Annual Average (right scale)
4.15 A month-on-month comparison, however, does not corroborate the improve-

4.0 3.40 10.0
2.38
2.71 ment suggested by the annual figures, as industrial production fell 1.04% over
1.77 1.87
% 1.57
1.05 % the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, which contrasted the 1.05%
0.22
0.0
0.00
0.0
increase recorded in July. Consensus Forecast panellists expect industrial pro-
-1.04
duction to expand 16.6% this year and 8.0% in 2011.
-1.29
-2.97
-4.0 -10.0 Consensus Forecast participants left their estimates for full year 2010 GDP
growth unchanged at the current 6.0%. For 2011, panellists expect the economy
to expand 4.2%, which is also unchanged compared to last month’s forecast.
Note: Seasonally adjusted month-on-month and annual average changes of
industrial production index in %.
Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations.
OUTLOOK | Consumer confidence marks second consecutive drop in
September
In September, the Consumer Survey Index (CSI) published by the Bank of
Korea inched down from 110 points in August to 109 points, marking the sec-
ond consecutive drop in consumer sentiment. However, at the current level
consumer confidence remains above the 100-point threshold that separates

Consumer Confidence optimism from pessimism for the 17th consecutive month, suggesting that con-
sumption should continue to support economic growth in the coming months.
120
Households’ assessment regarding their living standards as well as the situa-

110
tion of the domestic economy deteriorated compared to the previous month,
with the component relative to the domestic economy marking the sharpest
Points
100
drop. Finally, while expectations about households’ living standards in the next
six months remained stable, the six-month outlook on the general economy
90
situation deteriorated compared to August.
80
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation soars on food prices in September
In September, consumer prices rose 1.12% over the previous month. The read-
Note: Consumer Survey Index (CSI). An index value above 100 indicates an ing almost tripled the 0.35% increase recorded in August and came in well
optimistic outlook while a value below 100 indicates a pessimistic outlook.
Source: Bank of Korea (BoK).
above market expectations of a 0.33% increase. The main drivers behind the
monthly price rise were higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages,
which jumped a sizable 6.55% over the previous month. In particular, prices for
fresh food increased 19.5% over August. As a result of the monthly increase,
annual inflation stepped up one full percentage point, from 2.6% in August to
3.6%.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index Core inflation, which excludes more volatile items such as fresh food and en-
ergy, added a more subdued 0.26% over the previous month. As a conse-
1.5 4.0
quence, annual core inflation inched up from 1.8% in August to 1.9% in Sep-
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) 1.12 tember. The three-year average inflation rate, which is the basis of the Central
1.0 Bank’s monetary policy, remained stable at 3.4% for an ninth consecutive month,
3.0
thus exceeding the Central Bank’s inflation target of 3.0% but remaining within
0.52
0.5
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 %
the tolerance range of ±1.0 percentage points.
%
0.18
0.09 0.09 2.0
0.0 Yoon Jong-Won, Director of the Economic Policy Bureau of the Ministry of
-0.17 Strategy and Finance, stated that rising food prices in September were caused
-0.26
-0.5 1.0 by bad weather conditions in the previous month and that prices should ease
going forward.
Note: Month-on-month and year-on-year changes of cons. price index in %.
Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS and FocusEconomics calculations. Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to average 2.9% in 2010, which
is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. According to the panel,
average inflation will inch up to 3.0% in 2011, which is down 0.1 percentage
points over last month’s projection.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged

At the most recent monetary policy meeting on 14 October, the Central Bank
Monetary Policy Rate | in % decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, surprising market ana-
lysts which had expected monetary authorities would raise interest rates by 25
6.0 basis points.
In its monetary policy statement, the Central Bank foresees a continued pick-
4.0
up in domestic economic activity in the months to come, leading to demand-
pull price pressures. However, monetary authorities acknowledge the pres-
2.0 ence of external risks, as global economic activity remains volatile. Moreover,
monetary authorities are concerned about the appreciating trend in the na-
tional currency, leading to the decision of maintaining interest rates unchanged.
0.0
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
That said, monetary authorities once again conveyed a mixed message in their
statement, as the Central Bank continued to refer to an accommodative policy
going forward, despite the reference to “price stability” preceding that to “eco-
Note: BoK Base Rate in %, eop.
Source: Bank of Korea (BoK). nomic growth”, thus suggesting a shift in priorities.

As a consequence of the continued dovish position of the Central Bank, mar-

ket analysts are now more inclined to believe that the Central Bank will not
raise interest rate before the end of the year. Consensus Forecast panellists
expect interest rates to close the year at an average of 2.59%. In 2011, the
panel anticipates monetary authorities to raise rates to an average of 3.29%.
EXTERNAL SECTOR | Trade surplus widens in September
Merchandise Trade | USD bn

In September, exports rose 16.5% over the same month last year to reach
USD 39.5 billion, according to the latest data released by Korea Customs Ser-
50 vices (KCS). The figure came in below the 28.1% expansion (previously re-
Trade Balance Exports Imports ported: +27.7%) recorded in August. Nonetheless, the monthly figure marked
40
the 11th consecutive double-digit increase in exports, confirming the strength of
30 the external sector.
20
According to the Ministry of Knowledge Economy (MKE), the September rise
10
was driven by strong increases in exports of semiconductors, which surged
0 50.6% over the previous year, and by a 28.1% annual rise in exports of petro-
leum products. Meanwhile, according to KCS figures, imports increased 17.5%
-10
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 year-on-year in September (August: +28.6% yoy), reaching USD 35.0 billion.
Note: Monthly exports, imports and trade balance in USD billion.

Source: Korea Customs Services (KCS).
As a result of the monthly figures, the trade surplus rose from USD 1.8 billion in
August to USD 4.5 billion in September. Consensus Forecast panellists antici-
pate exports will expand 22.3% this year and 9.9% in 2011.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 845 952 1,049 931 833 1,013 1,146 1,275 1,372 1,472
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 4.6 4.7 5.1 1.3 0.2 4.3 3.6 3.9 4.0 3.7
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 1.9 3.4 4.2 -1.9 -0.2 6.7 4.4 5.0 4.8 4.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 6.3 8.4 6.9 3.4 -0.8 16.6 8.0 7.0 7.3 6.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 3.5 1.2 -1.7 -0.6 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.6
Money (annual variation of M1 in %) 3.3 11.7 -14.7 4.5 17.8 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %) 2.8 2.2 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.1
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 1.8 2.1 2.4 5.6 2.2 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 1.5 0.3 3.6 5.6 1.8 - - - - -
BoK Base Rate %, eop 3.70 4.49 4.99 3.27 2.00 2.59 3.29 3.51 3.65 3.76
Stock Market (variation of KOSPI in %) 54.0 4.0 32.3 -40.7 49.7 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,012 930 936 1,260 1,165 1,105 1,049 1,033 1,042 1,030
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, average) 1,024 955 929 1,102 1,277 1,137 1,077 1,041 1,038 1,036
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.8 0.6 0.6 -0.6 5.1 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn) 15.0 5.4 5.9 -5.8 42.7 23.4 16.1 18.9 17.9 23.2
Exports (USD bn) 289 332 379 433 374 457 502 555 607 660
Imports (USD bn) 256 304 351 427 317 421 474 529 578 628
Inflation (CPI, annual average var. in %) 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0
BoK Base Rate %, eop 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.59 2.75 2.99 3.21 3.29
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,178 1,165 1,131 1,222 1,140 1,105 1,106 1,091 1,068 1,049
Consum. Confid. Index (100-point threshold) 113 113 111 110 110 111 112 112 110 109
Business Confid. Index (100-point threshold) 105.9 103.1 102.3 116.2 111.2 113.4 108.9 107.3 100.7 111.1
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.52 0.09 -0.17 0.35 0.35 1.12
Exchange Rate (KRW per USD, eop) 1,165 1,162 1,160 1,131 1,108 1,200 1,222 1,183 1,189 1,140

12 15 Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Korea
World
6 10 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.5 4.3
0 5
DBS Bank 6.2 3.9
-6 0
Korea HSBC 6.0 4.1
Asia (ex Japan) ING 6.2 4.8
World
-12 -5
JPMorgan 6.1 4.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 KERI 6.1 3.8
Korea Invest. & Securities - -
LG - -
8 6
SERI 5.9 3.8
6 5
UBS 6.0 3.3
Woori I&S 6.2 4.3
4 4
Summary
Minimum 5.0 3.3
2 Maximum 3
Maximum 7.0 5.2
Consensus Maximum Median 6.0 4.1
Minimum Consensus
Consensus 6.0 4.2
Minimum
0 2 History
60 days ago 5.8 4.3
90 days ago 5.7 4.3
20 20 Central Bank (July 2010) 5.9 4.5
IMF (Oct. 2010) 6.1 4.5
10 ADB (Sep. 2010) 6.0 4.6
10
0 Notes and sources

-10
General:
-10
-20 sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office (KOSTAT), Korean
Korea Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), Ministry of Finance and Economy
Korea
Asia (ex Japan) and the Bank of Korea (BoK). See below for details. Forecasts based on
Asia (ex Japan)
-20 -30 FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: BoK
7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts Source: BoK.
5 7
2010
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: BoK.
2011 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: BoK.
6 7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
4 18 months.
last 18 months.
5
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
3 11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: Ministry of Finance
4 and Economy.
2010 12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
2011
last 18 months.
2 3 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 4.5 2.5 7.0 6.0 - - 3.2 3.0 0.5 1.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.1 4.0 5.5 4.0 17.9 9.0 3.6 3.3 -0.3 0.1
Credit Suisse 4.5 4.0 8.4 4.5 - - 3.0 2.5 - -
DBS Bank 4.0 3.4 6.3 3.4 - - 3.4 3.1 - -
Deutsche Bank 3.8 3.2 6.7 3.4 - - 3.3 3.3 0.6 0.4
Goldman Sachs 3.8 - 5.9 - - - - - -0.8 -
HSBC 4.1 3.5 5.9 2.9 17.0 6.9 3.3 3.1 - -
ING - - - - - - - - -0.2 0.4
JPMorgan - - - - 18.4 9.0 - - -0.5 0.5
KERI 4.2 3.7 6.4 5.6 - - - - - -
Korea Invest. & Securities 4.4 3.5 6.3 5.2 - - 3.3 3.2 - -
LG - - - - - - 3.2 - - -
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - -0.5 -0.2
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - 3.3 - -2.9 -0.7
SERI 4.0 3.5 - - - - 3.8 3.5 - -
UBS 3.7 2.8 6.1 2.7 - - - - - -
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - 3.4 3.1 - -
Woori I&S 4.5 4.3 7.1 5.2 15.2 8.7 3.6 3.3 -1.8 -1.4
Summary
Minimum 3.7 2.5 5.5 2.7 14.4 6.2 3.0 2.5 -2.9 -1.4
Maximum 6.1 4.8 8.4 6.0 18.4 9.0 3.8 3.5 0.6 1.0
Median 4.1 3.5 6.4 4.5 17.0 8.7 3.3 3.2 -0.4 0.1
Consensus 4.3 3.6 6.7 4.4 16.6 8.0 3.4 3.1 -0.6 0.0
History
30 days ago 4.3 3.6 6.4 4.4 15.6 8.2 3.4 3.1 -0.3 0.3
60 days ago 4.4 3.5 6.3 4.2 14.1 7.8 3.3 3.0 -0.4 0.3
90 days ago 4.3 3.5 6.1 4.4 13.5 7.7 3.3 3.0 -0.9 0.0

24 9 4
16
6 0
3 -4
0 Korea
Korea Korea Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
-8 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
20 4.0 2
2010 2010
2011 2011
16
3.5 0
12
3.0 -2
8
2010
2011
4 2.5 -4

15 | Inflation | 1995-2004 | in % 16 | Inflation | Q1 07 - Q4 11 | in % Inflation | annual avg. var. of consumer price index in %
12 8
Korea ANZ 2.8 3.1
Asia (ex Japan)
8 4
DBS Bank 2.9 3.1
4 0 Deutsche Bank 2.9 3.6
Korea HSBC 2.9 2.9
Asia (ex Japan)
ING 2.9 2.5
0 -4 JPMorgan 2.7 3.3
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 KERI 2.7 2.3
Korea Invest. & Securities 2.7 2.9
17 | Inflation 2010 | evolution of fcst 18 | Inflation 2011 | evolution of fcst LG 2.8 -
4 4.0
Maximum RBC Capital Markets - -
Consensus SERI 2.9 2.8
Minimum
3.5 Standard Chartered Bank 2.9 2.8
3 UBS 2.8 2.6
3.0 Woori I&S 2.9 3.4
Summary
2 Minimum 2.7 2.3
2.5 Maximum 3.0 3.6
Maximum
Consensus Median 2.9 3.1
Minimum
Consensus 2.9 3.0
1 2.0 History
30 days ago 2.8 3.1
60 days ago 2.9 3.1
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation 90 days ago 2.9 3.1
6 60
Core Price Index
Central Bank (July 2010) 2.8 3.4
PPI IMF (Oct. 2010) 3.1 3.4
ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.0 3.0
4 30
2 0
0 -30
Notes and sources
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond | in % 22 | Stock Market | KOSPI
monetary sector data are from the Korea National Statistics Office
7.5 2,000 (KOSTAT), Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS), Korea Exchange
(KRX) and the Bank of Korea (BoK). See below for details. Forecasts based
on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
6.5 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in

1,500 %. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
%. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
5.5
1,000 19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
4.5 2009. Source: KOSTAT-KOSIS.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BoK.
21 10-year bond yield in %. Jan 2002 until end of previous month.
3.5 500
Source: BoK.
22 Daily index levels, KOSPI. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
Source: KRX.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995-2004| in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07 - Q4 11 | in % Policy Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
30 6 % KRW per USD
Korea Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
Asia (ex Japan)
ANZ 2.75 4.25 1,200 1,000
Capital Economics 2.75 3.50 1,050 1,000
20 4 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. - - 1,130 1,050
Credit Suisse 2.75 4.25 1,120 1,050
Daiwa Capital Markets 2.50 2.75 1,100 1,060
DBS Bank 2.75 - 1,060 -
10 2
Deutsche Bank 2.50 - 1,110 1,090
Goldman Sachs - - 1,100 1,050
HSBC 2.50 3.25 1,130 1,070
ING 2.75 3.50 1,060 1,030
0 0
JPMorgan 2.50 3.00 1,150 1,100
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
KERI 2.50 3.00 1,100 1,140
Korea Invest. & Securities - - 1,060 1,050
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst LG 2.50 - 1,070 -
5 5 Morgan Stanley - - - -
Maximum
Consensus RBC Capital Markets 2.75 3.25 1,050 1,000
Minimum SERI 2.50 2.75 1,120 1,070
4 Standard Chartered Bank 2.25 3.00 1,120 1,050
4 UBS 2.75 2.75 1,100 1,025
United Overseas Bank 2.75 - 1,160 -
3 Woori I&S 2.25 3.50 1,100 1,000
Summary
3
Minimum 2.25 2.75 1,050 1,000
2
Maximum 2.75 4.25 1,200 1,140
Maximum Median 2.50 3.25 1,100 1,050
Consensus Consensus 2.59 3.29 1,105 1,049
Minimum
History
1 2
30 days ago 2.61 3.25 1,136 1,062
60 days ago 2.65 3.43 1,136 1,078
90 days ago 2.65 3.42 1,133 1,076
27 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | KRW per USD
1,800 1,400
1,400 1,200
1,000 1,000
600 800
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Notes and sources
General:
29 | KRW/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | KRW/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Korea (BoK).
1,600 Maximum 1,400
Maximum Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Consensus
Minimum Consensus
Minimum 23 Interest rate, BoK Base Rate in % (eop).
1,400 24 Quarterly interest rate, BoK Base Rate in % (eop).
1,200 25 Interest rate, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).
1,200
28 Quarterly exchange rate, KRW per USD (eop).
1,000 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
1,000 31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn.
33 International reserves, months of imports.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 35 Exports, annual variation in %.
36 External debt as % of GDP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 23.1 16.0 31.9 22.0 460 496 428 474 313 330
Credit Suisse 14.9 6.5 - - - - - - 293 311
Daiwa Capital Markets 29.3 24.4 44.6 38.1 476 526 432 488 284 308
DBS Bank 28.0 12.0 32.0 19.0 459 499 427 480 299 317
Deutsche Bank 17.7 8.7 39.1 28.6 470 521 431 492 287 304
Goldman Sachs 26.9 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 33.8 33.1 54.5 56.5 471 508 416 451 304 329
ING 23.0 20.0 41.0 43.0 454 518 413 475 285 300
JPMorgan 26.9 17.1 45.0 35.8 439 501 394 465 290 308
KERI 36.6 18.1 41.0 14.9 464 488 423 473 - -
Korea Invest. & Securities 13.2 10.7 19.4 12.7 431 490 411 478 - -
LG - - 16.3 - 444 - 428 - - -
Morgan Stanley 19.1 7.8 36.5 28.6 - - - - - -
RBC Capital Markets 13.5 17.5 - - - - - - - -
SERI 22.7 15.2 30.5 18.2 456 494 425 476 - -
UBS 24.0 20.0 34.4 27.4 454 473 420 445 - -
Woori I&S 27.6 15.5 35.0 20.0 460 510 425 490 254 310
Summary
Minimum 13.2 6.5 16.3 12.7 431 473 394 445 254 300
Maximum 36.6 33.1 54.5 56.5 476 526 432 492 313 330
Median 23.5 16.0 35.7 27.4 459 500 425 476 290 310
Consensus 23.4 16.1 35.8 28.1 457 502 421 474 290 313
History
30 days ago 20.4 14.5 34.1 27.2 456 502 422 475 294 314
60 days ago 17.7 13.1 32.8 27.1 457 507 424 480 294 313
90 days ago 18.0 13.3 33.1 27.2 454 507 421 480 293 312
12 900 20
Trade Balance Korea
Imports
600 15
6
300 10
0
0 5
Korea
Asia (ex Japan)
-6 -300 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
30 45 60
2010
2011 30
20 40
15
0
10 20
-15 Korea
Korea Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan)
0 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Korea in the Region
Official name: Republic of Korea Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Seoul (9.6 m)
Other cities: Pusan (4.6 m) Korea
2% Korea Other
Daegu (3.2 m) Other
10%
10% 16%
Area (km2): 99,268
Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 48.6 7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 489 China
43%
India
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 78.7 15%
Language: Korean India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 99.2 100% 3.3 2.3
Agriculture, hunting,
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 81.6 forestry
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 33.8 24.9 25.0 Manufacturing 75%
75%
6.3 Construction
7.0
Energy (2007) 9.6 9.9 50%
Wholesale and retail
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,461 4.2 4.0 trade
50% 6.2
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 9,647 6.0
7.0
Transport, storage and
7.3 communication
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 402 Financial
25%

intermediation
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 30.0 37.6 39.3 Real estate, renting and
business activities 0%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 2,241 Other
2003 2005 2007 2009
Chief Ports: Incheon, Pusan, Pohang EU-27
USA EU-27
12% 9%
Japan 9%
USA
6%
11%
Japan
Political Data 15%
President: Lee Myung-bak Exports Other Imports

China
36%
Last elections: 19 December 2007 Other
30%
Next elections: December 2012 28%

China
Central Bank Governor: Kim Chong-soo 20%
Other Other
Asia Asia
13% 11%

Moody’s: A1 Stable
S&P: A Stable Consumer
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable goods
10%
Heavy Industrial
Electric &
industry electronic materials
products machine 30%
79% 14%
Strengths Weaknesses Imports

Exports Crude Other
• Highly developed infra- • Highly dependent on energy materials capital
and fuels goods
structure imports 11% 11%
Fishing
• Globally leading position in • Quickly ageing population Food and 6%
consumer Fuels
internet penetration • Lingering geopolitical goods 35%
1%
• Highly educated labour force uncertainty regarding North
Korea

FOCUSECONOMICS Malaysia November 2010
Malaysia
Malaysia
Outlook stable
• On 15 October, the government unveiled its 2011 budget, targeting a
fiscal deficit of 5.4% of GDP, only a notch below this year’s 5.6%
target. The budget was well received by the markets, despite delaying
the fiscal consolidation measures needed to achieve the
government’s objective of cutting the deficit to 3.0% by 2015.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists left their growth forecast for this year
Population (million): 24.5 27.2 29.8 unchanged at 7.1%. Next year, the panel expects economic growth
GDP (USD bn): 99 180 306
to decelerate to 5.2%.
GDP growth (%): 5.5 4.1 5.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -5.0 -4.4 -4.2 • Inflation decelerated to 1.8% in September, finally breaking the upward
Inflation (%): 1.5 2.9 2.5
trend in place since the beginning of the year. The panel expects
External Debt (% of GDP): 48.4 33.4 23.4 inflation to average 1.9% this year and to accelerate next year to an
average of 2.6%.
Gerardo Morán REAL SECTOR | Industrial output growth accelerates but remains weak
Senior Economist Following on the strong comeback made by the industrial sector in the first half
of the year, growth in the second half continues to show signs of weakening. In
August, industrial production increased 4.0% over the same month last year,
which represented only a mild improvement compared to the 3.4% expansion
tallied in July (previously reported: +3.2% year-on-year). However, the reading
fell short of market expectations, which had industrial output rising 5.7%.
Industrial Production | variation in % The acceleration was the result of higher electricity generation (July: +4.4%
yoy; August: +4.9% yoy) along with a moderation in the pace of decline in the
18.0
14.2
mining and quarrying sector (July: -5.9% yoy; August: -2.9% yoy). In contrast,
13.8
12.0 10.7
12.3
the all-important manufacturing sector, which accounts for nearly two thirds of
9.3
7.5 total industrial output, slowed somewhat to a 6.8% expansion (July: +7.4%
6.0 4.8
3.4 4.0 yoy), mostly driven by a marked deceleration in the production of refined
% 0.9 petroleum and chemical products.
0.0
-0.8
-6.0
Despite the moderate August reading, the trend in industrial production
-6.1
-7.0 continues to point upwards, with annual average growth in industrial production
Year-on-year Annual Average
-12.0 rising from 5.0% in July to 6.1% in August. Consensus Forecast panellists
anticipate industrial production to grow 7.8% this year and 5.3% next year.
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production in-

dex in %. Meanwhile, the government raised its growth forecast for this year by one full
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM) and FocusEconomics cal-
culations. percentage point to 7.0%, and expects the economy to grow between 5.0%
and 6.0% next year. Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share the
government’s assessment and see the economy to expanding 7.1% this year,
which is unchanged from last month’s projection. Next year, the panel sees
economic growth at 5.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases for the first time in seven months
In September, consumer prices remained unchanged over the previous month.
The flat reading came in below the 0.4% rise recorded in August and market
expectations, which had prices adding 0.3%. The monthly reading reflected an
Inflation | Consumer Price Index increase in prices for clothing and footwear (+0.9% month-on-month), which
was offset by lower prices for transportation (-0.2% mom).
0.4 4.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale)
0.4
0.3
As a result of the weak monthly figure, annual inflation fell to from 2.1% in
0.3 2.0
0.3 0.3 0.3 August to 1.8%, which marked the first time that inflation had eased in seven
% %
months. Nonetheless, annual average inflation continued to rise and reached
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0
1.1%.
0.1 -2.0 Meanwhile, at its last meeting on 2 September, the Central Bank left the overnight
0.1
policy rate unchanged at 2.75% amid signs of a deceleration in economic growth.
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 -4.0 The decision followed on three consecutive 25 base-point interest rate hikes
this year, the latest having occurred on 8 July.
Note: Annual and monthly variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM). The Central Bank expects inflation to average between 2.0% and 2.5% this
year. Consensus Forecast panellists share the Bank’s assessment and
anticipate inflation to average 1.9% this year, which is unchanged over the
previous month’s forecast. For next year, participants expect average inflation
to accelerate to 2.6%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 138 161 186 222 191 244 281 309 334 362
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) 5.3 5.8 6.3 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.5
Fixed Investment (ann. var. in %) 5.0 7.9 9.2 0.8 -5.5 8.5 6.6 5.9 6.8 7.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.6 4.8 2.3 0.8 -7.7 7.8 5.3 5.7 6.5 5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP) 43.8 42.2 41.7 41.5 53.7 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 6.3 5.9 5.1 1.2 1.8 - - - - -
Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.25 2.00 2.77 3.13 3.35 3.58 3.75
Stock Market (var. of FTSE BM KLCI in %) -0.8 21.8 31.8 -39.3 45.2 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, eop) 3.78 3.53 3.31 3.46 3.42 3.10 3.01 3.00 3.04 2.99
Exchange Rate (MYR per USD, average) 3.79 3.55 3.44 3.33 3.52 3.26 3.06 3.01 3.02 3.02
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 142 166 176 199 157 191 214 236 258 276
Imports (USD bn) 114 135 139 148 117 151 173 191 215 231
External Debt (USD bn) 52.3 52.2 56.7 68.2 68.3 68.7 69.2 70.8 71.4 73.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.2 4.4 10.1 8.9 5.8 4.7 4.5 5.0 5.6 5.6
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) -2.3 -0.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3
Overnight Policy Rate (%, eop) 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.77 2.88 3.00 3.07 3.13
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.1 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0

15 15
ANZ 7.7 6.1
10 10 Capital Economics 7.5 5.5
5 5 Credit Suisse 6.7 5.0
DBS Bank 8.0 5.5
0 0
-5 -5 HSBC 7.3 5.2
Malaysia Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ING 6.9 6.0
World World
-10 -10 JPMorgan 7.2 4.6
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Kenanga Investment Bank 6.8 5.5
Maybank Investment Bank 7.5 6.1
OCBC Bank 6.7 5.4
10 8
Maximum Maximum RHB Research Institute 7.3 5.0
Consensus Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 6.2 4.5
8 Minimum Minimum UBS 7.0 4.0
6 Summary
Minimum 6.1 4.0
4
Maximum 8.0 6.1
4 Median 7.2 5.1
Consensus 7.1 5.2
2
History
30 days ago 7.1 5.2
0 2 60 days ago 7.1 5.3
Government Budget (Oct. 2010) 7.0 5.0 - 6.0
IMF (Oct. 2010) 6.7 5.3
18 50
Malaysia Malaysia ADB (Sep. 2010) 6.8 5.0
12
25
0
Notes and sources
-25
-6 General:
real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
-12 -50 and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.

7 | Consumption | evolution of fcst 8 | Investment | evolution of forecasts 2 Quarterly GDP (not seasonally adjusted), year-on-year variation in %.
Source: DSM.
7 10
2010 2011 2010 2011 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
6 8 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the
last 18 months.
5 6 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: DSM.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP. Source: BNM.
4 4
12 Industrial production, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
the last 18 months.
13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
3 2 18 months.
14 Balance of central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 6.5 5.0 9.0 6.5 - - 3.4 3.2 -5.0 -4.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.9 6.7 6.9 6.0 - - 3.6 3.5 -5.7 -4.5
Credit Suisse 5.2 7.0 5.0 6.5 - - - - -5.4 -4.5
Daiwa Capital Markets 6.3 5.8 8.4 5.5 - - - - -5.6 -5.4
DBS Bank 6.1 6.3 8.6 7.0 - - - - -5.0 -4.3
Deutsche Bank 6.3 5.1 10.1 7.2 5.5 2.2 3.3 3.2 -5.6 -3.0
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -4.5 -
HSBC 6.8 6.7 8.4 6.5 12.0 6.3 3.2 3.3 -4.5 -3.2
ING 4.5 5.5 10.1 8.6 5.2 5.9 - - -7.2 -6.4
JPMorgan 5.6 6.0 - - 9.4 7.6 - - -5.2 -4.5
Kenanga Investment Bank 6.7 6.0 6.3 4.5 8.2 5.1 3.4 3.4 -5.6 -5.3
Maybank Investment Bank 6.5 6.9 7.0 8.8 8.7 4.1 3.5 3.5 -5.5 -5.0
Morgan Stanley - - - - - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 5.2 5.5 11.7 5.2 5.0 3.5 3.5 3.3 - -
RHB Research Institute 5.6 5.4 9.7 6.3 8.3 7.5 3.5 3.4 -5.3 -4.4
UBS 7.4 6.2 9.6 6.7 - - - - -6.1 -5.7
Summary
Minimum 4.5 5.0 5.0 4.5 5.0 2.2 3.2 3.1 -7.2 -6.4
Maximum 7.4 7.0 11.7 8.8 12.0 7.6 3.6 3.5 -4.5 -3.0
Median 6.2 6.0 8.6 6.5 8.3 5.5 3.4 3.3 -5.4 -4.5
Consensus 6.0 6.0 8.5 6.6 7.8 5.3 3.4 3.3 -5.4 -4.6
History
30 days ago 5.8 5.9 8.0 6.4 7.7 5.2 3.4 3.3 -5.7 -4.7
60 days ago 5.4 5.6 6.6 5.8 7.2 4.7 3.4 3.3 -5.6 -4.8
90 days ago 5.4 5.6 6.6 5.8 7.1 5.0 3.4 3.3 -5.6 -4.6

30 5 4
Malaysia Malaysia
Malaysia
20
4 0
10
3 -4
0
-10 2 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
8 4.5 -4
2010 2011 2010 2011
-5
6 4.0
-6
4 3.5
-7
2010 2011
2 3.0 -8

12 12
Malaysia Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 1.9 2.6
9 8
6 4
DBS Bank 1.8 2.4
3 0 Goldman Sachs 2.5 3.0
HSBC 1.9 2.7
ING 1.7 2.0
0 -4 JPMorgan 1.4 1.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Kenanga Investment Bank 2.0 2.5
Maybank Investment Bank 2.0 2.7
OCBC Bank 2.0 3.3
4 4
RHB Research Institute 2.0 2.8
3 3
UBS 1.7 2.1
Summary
2 2 Minimum 1.4 1.7
Maximum 2.5 3.6
Median 1.9 2.5
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
History
Minimum Minimum 30 days ago 1.9 2.6
0 0 60 days ago 2.0 2.6
19 | Producer Prices | % variation 20 | Money | % variation
Government Budget (Oct. 2010) - 2.0 - 3.0
IMF (Oct. 2010) 2.2 2.1
12 40
ADB (Sep. 2010) 1.8 2.4
8
20
0
0
-4 -20
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
Notes and sources
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | FTSE BM KLCI General:

500 1,600 real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1,400
400
%. Source: DSM.
1,200 (CPI) in %. Source: DSM.
300
19 Producer price indiex, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-2009.
1,000 Source: DSM.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BNM.
21 Daily MSCI Price index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of
800
200
22 Daily index levels, FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. From Jan. 2008
until end of previous month. Source: FTSE Bursa Malaysia.

10 4
% MYR per USD
ANZ 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.10
3
6
Credit Suisse 2.75 3.00 3.18 3.08
4
2
DBS Bank 2.75 - 3.08 -
2 Deutsche Bank 2.75 - 3.06 2.93
HSBC 2.75 2.75 3.05 2.91
0 1
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
ING 2.75 2.75 3.00 2.95
JPMorgan 2.75 2.75 3.10 3.02
Kenanga Investment Bank 2.75 3.25 3.10 3.05
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Maybank Investment Bank 2.75 3.25 3.13 3.03
4
Maximum
8 Maximum Morgan Stanley - - - -
Consensus Consensus OCBC Bank 2.75 3.50 3.20 3.12
Minimum Minimum
RHB Research Institute 2.75 3.25 3.15 3.10
6 Standard Chartered Bank 2.75 3.50 3.05 3.00
3 UBS 2.75 2.75 3.10 3.00
4 Summary
Minimum 2.75 2.75 3.00 2.90
2 Maximum 3.00 3.50 3.25 3.12
2 Median 2.75 3.25 3.10 3.01
Consensus 2.77 3.13 3.10 3.01
History
1 0 30 days ago 2.77 3.17 3.15 3.07
60 days ago 2.80 3.21 3.17 3.09
90 days ago 2.77 3.08 3.21 3.11
27 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | MYR per USD
4.0 3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.0
3.2 Notes and sources
General:
2.5 3.0 real sector data are from the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DSM)
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 and the Central Bank (BNM, Bank Negara Malaysia). See below for
details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
29 | MYR/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | MYR/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts 23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in % (eop).
Source: BNM.
4.5 4.0
Maximum Maximum 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Policy Rate in %
Consensus Consensus (eop). Source: BNM.
4.0 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: BNM.
3.5
28 Quarterly exchange rate, MYR per USD (eop). Source: BNM.
3.5 months.
3.0
months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: DSM.
3.0 32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: BNM.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BNM.
2.5 2.5 during the last 18 months.
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: DSM.
36 External debt as % of GDP. Source: BNM.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Credit Suisse 36.6 38.7 49.7 52.0 200 227 151 175 98 107
DBS Bank 34.0 37.0 31.0 31.0 204 227 173 196 108 119
Deutsche Bank 28.4 23.6 37.3 32.3 182 195 144 163 115 125
Goldman Sachs 35.3 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 32.7 38.8 47.1 54.6 201 236 154 182 103 115
ING 24.0 26.0 - - - - - - 107 112
JPMorgan 34.9 36.6 43.1 43.9 179 203 136 160 101 104
Kenanga Investment Bank 31.0 35.7 - - - - - - 103 110
Maybank Investment Bank 38.6 38.8 40.5 41.3 195 222 154 181 - -
Morgan Stanley 34.6 33.8 47.2 47.6 - - - - - -
OCBC Bank 32.7 35.2 38.8 42.3 180 201 142 159 99 105
RHB Research Institute 29.9 31.8 35.2 36.5 196 226 161 189 95 104
UBS 34.4 32.4 35.8 33.3 196 203 160 169 107 117
Summary
Minimum 24.0 23.6 31.0 31.0 176 195 133 149 95 104
Maximum 38.6 38.8 49.7 54.6 204 236 173 196 115 125
Median 34.2 35.4 39.7 41.8 195 214 154 175 103 112
Consensus 32.9 34.0 40.1 41.5 191 214 151 173 104 112
History
30 days ago 33.2 34.2 40.3 42.2 191 212 151 171 103 112
60 days ago 33.9 34.8 41.2 43.7 187 208 146 164 104 113
90 days ago 34.3 35.0 41.2 43.6 187 207 146 164 104 113
20 300 20
Trade Balance Malaysia
Exports
Asia (ex Japan)
Imports
200 15
10
100 10
0
0 5
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 -100 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
40 30 80
Malaysia
Asia (ex Japan)
35 15 60
30 0 40
25 -15 20
2010 2011
20 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Malaysia in the Region

Official name: Malaysia
Capital: Kuala Lumpur (1.4 m)
Korea
Other cities: Pinang (1.2 m) Malaysia
1% 2% Malaysia
2%
Ipoh (1.0 m) Other Korea Other
9% 14%
Area (km2): 329,750 10%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 28.3 Indonesia

7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 85.8
China
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 1.7 43%

15%
Language: Bahasa Malaysia, India China
53%
English 38%


Telephones - main lines (per 100 inhabitants): 15.7 100%
2004 2009
8.2 7.7 Agriculture, hunting,
forestry
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 6.1 Mining and Quarrying
75%
26.9
30.7 Manufacturing
Energy (2007) 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 3,517 50%

5.3
Real Estates and
4.3 Business Services
11.7
Finance and Insurance 25%

Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 103 11.0
13.2
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 99.2 25% Wholesale and Retail

Trade
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 704 25.8 27.4
0%
Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 540 Private Consumption Government Consumption
0%
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 157.2 Investment Net exports
EU-27 EU-27
Chief Ports: Port Kelang 11%
USA
10%
USA 8%
Japan
13% 10% Japan
10%
Political Data Singapore
22%
China
Prime Minister: Najib Tun Razak Singapore
16%
Exports 16% Imports China
15%
Last elections: 8 March 2008
Next elections: March 2013
Central Bank Governor: Zeti Akhtar Aziz Other Other
Other 17% Other
Asia
18% Asia
16%
19%

Moody’s: A3 Stable
S&P: A- Stable Oil & Other
Fitch Ratings: A- Stable Palm oil & derivative
Consumer
9%
derivative 8%
goods
9%
7%
Capital
Other
Strengths Weaknesses goods
Exports 42%
15%
Imports
• Competitive labour costs • Scarcity of qualified labour
Electronics &
electric
• Advanced financial sector • Vulnerability to external shocks equipment
41%
• Net exporter of oil and gas • Low productivity Intermediate goods
68%

FOCUSECONOMICS Philippines November 2010
Philippines
Philippines
Outlook improves
• Preliminary data suggest that the economy decelerated in the third
quarter. However, merchandise exports continue to grow at a robust
pace, expanding at a double-digit pace for the ninth consecutive month
in August. In addition, overseas Filipino workers’ remittances, which
account for more than 10% of GDP, were 9.8% higher than in the same
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages month last year, which should buttress private consumption in the
months ahead.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 80.2 88.7 97.7
GDP (USD bn): 78 138 245 • Consensus Forecast panellists raised their 2010 GDP forecasts for a
GDP per capita (USD): 973 1,547 2,496
fifth consecutive month and now expect economic growth to reach
GDP growth (%): 4.6 4.4 5.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.4 -1.8 -2.9 6.6%, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate.
Inflation (%): 4.4 5.8 4.3 In 2011, panellists see growth moderating to 5.1%.
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.7 3.7 3.5
External Debt (% of GDP): 69.1 40.7 26.2
• In September, inflation fell to 3.5% from 4.0% in August. Consensus
Forecast panellists lowered their forecasts for a fifth consecutive
month and now expect inflation to reach 3.9% in 2010. In 2011, the
panel anticipates inflation to inch up to 4.0%.
Marcos Felipe Casarin REAL SECTOR | Economy is expected to expand in Q3, albeit at a less
Economist markedly pace
After having grown a sound 7.9% in the first half of the year, economic activity
is likely to have decelerated in the third quarter, as the leading economic
indicator (LEI) for the July-September period expanded at a slower pace than
in the previous quarter.
Exports | variation in % However, initial monthly data for the third quarter provide a fairly robust pic-
ture of the overall economy. In July, 16 out of 20 industrial sectors surveyed by
50.0
42.5 42.6 43.8
40.0 the National Statistical Institute expanded over the same month last year.
37.4
33.7
35.9 36.6 Although aided by a weak base of comparison, the result represents the
28.2 20.0 eighth consecutive month with the industrial sector growing at a double-digit
23.8
25.0
pace. Meanwhile, external sector data point to an ongoing recovery, as mer-
0.0 chandise exports soared 36.6% year-on-year in August. The reading came in
% 5.7
% above July’s already robust figure (+35.9% yoy) and represented the ninth
0.0
-20.0 consecutive month of double-digit growth. However, the result was favoured
-7.6
Annual (left scale) by a low comparison base, as exports had plunged 20.9% in August 2009.
-18.1 Yoy change of trailing 12-month sum (right scale)
-25.0 -20.9 -40.0 Consensus Forecast panellists expect exports to expand 22.3% in 2010 and
10.1% in 2011.
Note: Year-on-year changes of monthly and 12-month sum of merchandise exports

in %. On the other hand, overseas Filipino workers’ remittances, which account for
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO) and FocusEconomics calculations.
more than 10% of gross domestic product, fell somewhat in August, reach-
ing USD 1.50 billion (July: USD 1.62 billion). Nonetheless, the reading was
9.8% higher than in August 2009.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate GDP to expand 6.6% this year,

which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2011, the
panel expects economic growth to moderate to 5.1%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation eases in September

In September, consumer prices decreased 0.24% over the previous month,
which contrasted the 0.24% price rise observed in the previous month. The
monthly price drop mainly reflected a pronounced decrease in prices for fuel,
Inflation | Consumer Price Index light and water, which fell 2.29% over August.
0.9 6.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale)
As a result of the monthly figure, annual headline inflation eased to 3.5% in
0.62 September (August: +4.0% year-on-year), undershooting market expecta-
0.6 0.56 0.55 0.55
0.43
tions of a 4.0% rate. Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes more
4.0
volatile price categories such as oil and fresh food, decreased to 3.8% (Au-
0.24 0.24 0.24
0.3
0.19
0.24 0.24 % gust: +4.2% yoy).
%
2.0
0.0
Annual average inflation, which is the reference rate for the Central Bank’s
policy making, accelerated from 3.5% in August to 3.8% in September, al-
-0.18
-0.3 -0.24 0.0 though it still remains below the target of 4.5% with a ± 1.0 percentage-point
tolerance margin set by the Bank for this year. Therefore, owing to the benign
inflation outlook and to the increasing productive capacity of the economy, the
Source: National Statistics Office (NSO). monetary board decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its most recent
meeting on 26 August. Furthermore, monetary authorities also announced
the new inflation target for the 2012-14 period at 4.0% with a ± 1.0 percent-
age-point tolerance margin.
Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate annual inflation to average 3.9%

this year, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
For 2011, the panel expects consumer prices to step up to 4.0%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 99 118 144 167 161 190 218 245 272 299
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -6.6 3.9 10.9 2.9 -3.5 10.6 5.7 6.3 6.8 6.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 3.8 4.5 6.8 0.3 -11.9 7.3 6.7 5.4 4.2 4.3
Money (ann. var. of M1 in %) 9.9 24.6 15.1 21.0 14.1 - - - - -
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 12.9 5.9 0.9 1.8 5.7 - - - - -
Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%, eop) 5.61 5.26 3.71 6.12 3.89 4.18 4.79 5.18 5.38 5.28
Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, eop) 53.1 49.1 41.4 47.5 46.4 43.7 42.1 41.6 41.2 41.0
Exchange Rate (PHP per USD, average) 55.0 51.3 46.1 44.5 47.6 45.0 42.9 41.8 41.4 41.1
External Sector
Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) 2.0 4.5 4.4 2.2 5.3 4.5 4.0 3.7 2.7 2.4
Current Account (USD bn) 2.0 5.3 6.4 3.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.0 7.5 7.1
Exports (USD bn) 40.3 46.5 49.3 48.3 37.5 46.0 50.7 53.6 56.5 59.4
Imports (USD bn) 48.0 53.3 57.6 61.1 46.4 53.7 59.9 64.8 69.1 73.9
Exports (annual variation in %) 3.8 15.6 6.0 -2.2 -22.3 22.3 10.1 5.9 5.4 5.1
International Reserves (USD bn) 18.4 23.0 33.8 37.6 44.2 50.1 55.5 58.8 62.8 65.1
Treasury Bill Rate 91 Days (%, eop) 3.99 3.89 3.88 3.99 4.04 4.18 4.25 4.50 4.71 4.79
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) 0.55 0.24 0.43 0.24 0.55 -0.18 0.24 0.24 0.24 -0.24
Remittances (USD bn) 1.57 1.37 1.41 1.55 1.52 1.58 1.62 1.62 1.50 -

12 15
Philippines Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Asia (ex Japan)
World ANZ 7.4 6.6
Banco de Oro 6.0 6.5
10
BPI AMTG 7.0 6.3
6
5
0 DBS Bank 6.2 5.0
0 Deutsche Bank 6.8 5.0
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
World HSBC 5.9 4.6
-6 -5 ING 7.1 5.2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 7.0 3.9
Metropolitan Bank and Trust 7.1 5.5
Philippine Equity Partners 5.3 3.6
8 8
Maximum Maximum UBS 7.3 4.4
Consensus Consensus United Overseas Bank - -
Minimum Minimum Summary
6 6
Minimum 5.3 3.6
Maximum 7.4 6.6
Median 6.8 5.0
Consensus 6.6 5.1
4 4 History
30 days ago 6.4 4.9
60 days ago 5.6 4.8
90 days ago 5.4 4.7
2 2 Additional Forecasts
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep ADB (Sep. 2010) 6.0 4.6
IMF (Oct. 2010) 7.0 4.5
9 30
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
20
6
10
0
Notes and sources
3
General:
-10
sector data are from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB),
Philippines the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines
Asia (ex Japan) (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based
0 -20
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.

Source: NSCB.
6.0 12 3 GDP, evolution of 2010 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010 4 GDP, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
2010
2011 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.
2011
6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: NSCB.
5.0 8
18 months.
last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.
4.0 4 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: NSO.
11 Balance of national government, % of GDP. Source: BSP.
last 18 months.
3.0 0 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of national government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


Consumption Investment Unemployment Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % of active pop. % of GDP
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Banco de Oro 5.1 4.9 6.5 4.5 7.7 7.5 -4.1 -3.2
BPI AMTG - - - - - - -4.0 -3.1
Capital Economics 6.0 5.5 7.0 7.5 - - -3.9 -3.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 4.9 5.0 9.9 7.6 - - -4.0 -3.2
Credit Suisse 5.9 4.9 8.9 3.9 - - -3.8 -3.0
DBS Bank - - - - - - -4.0 -3.0
Deutsche Bank 4.7 4.5 - - 8.1 7.9 -4.0 -3.6
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - -3.8 -
HSBC 5.1 5.3 13.9 5.8 7.6 7.1 -4.3 -3.5
ING 5.2 5.6 - - 7.3 7.0 -3.6 -3.0
JPMorgan - - - - - - -4.0 -3.3
Metropolitan Bank and Trust - - - - - - - -
Philippine Equity Partners 4.9 5.3 11.7 7.6 - - -3.8 -3.1
UBS 5.3 4.9 16.5 2.9 - - -3.9 -3.1
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 4.7 4.5 6.5 2.9 7.3 7.0 -4.3 -3.6
Maximum 6.0 5.6 16.5 7.6 8.1 7.9 -3.6 -3.0
Median 5.1 5.0 9.9 5.8 7.7 7.3 -4.0 -3.1
Consensus 5.2 5.1 10.6 5.7 7.7 7.4 -3.9 -3.2
History
30 days ago 5.3 5.1 9.5 5.7 7.7 7.4 -3.8 -3.2
60 days ago 5.0 4.8 6.7 4.6 7.7 7.5 -3.7 -3.1
90 days ago 5.0 4.8 7.2 4.9 7.7 7.5 -3.7 -3.1

20 12 4
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
World
10 9
0
0 6
-4
-10 3
Philippines Philippines
-20 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
8 9.0 -1
2010
2011
8.5
6 -2
8.0
4 -3
7.5
2010 2010
2011 2011
2 7.0 -4

12 15
Philippines
Banco de Oro 3.8 3.5
10
BPI AMTG 4.0 4.3
8
5
4
DBS Bank 4.0 4.4
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
HSBC 4.2 4.5
0 -5 ING 3.9 4.3
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 3.5 2.2
Metropolitan Bank and Trust 3.8 4.2
Philippine Equity Partners 3.8 4.0
8 8
Maximum Maximum UBS 4.0 4.1
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum United Overseas Bank - -
6 6
Summary
Minimum 3.5 2.2
Maximum 4.3 4.8
4 4 Median 3.9 4.2
Consensus 3.9 4.0
History
2 2 30 days ago 4.2 4.0
60 days ago 4.4 4.2
90 days ago 4.5 4.2
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Central Bank (June 2010) 4.7 3.0 - 5.0
IMF (Oct. 2010) 4.5 4.0
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
ADB (Sep. 2010) 4.5 4.4
15 45
Core Price Index
PPI
30
10
15
5
0
0 -15
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | Phisix Composite Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
380 5,000 monetary sector data are from the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the
Central Bank of Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas). See below
for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
4,000 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in

300 %. Source: NSO.
3,000 %. Source: NSO.
220
19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
2,000 2009. Source: NSO.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: BSP.
21 Daily MSCI Price Index in USD. Jan. 2008 until end of previous
140 1,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
22 Daily index levels, Phisix Composite Index. Jan. 2008 until end of
previous month. Source: The Philippine Stock and Exchange.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
20 8
% PHP per USD
ANZ 4.00 5.00 46.0 45.0
6
12
Banco de Oro 4.00 4.50 44.5 41.3
BPI AMTG 4.00 4.25 43.2 42.5
8
4
Credit Suisse 4.50 5.00 45.0 43.0
4 DBS Bank 4.25 - 43.0 -
Deutsche Bank 4.75 5.00 43.5 42.0
0 2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 4.00 4.50 43.0 41.0
ING 4.00 4.50 43.0 42.1
JPMorgan 4.00 5.00 43.3 42.3
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Metropolitan Bank and Trust 4.00 4.25 42.0 40.5
7 7 Philippine Equity Partners 4.00 4.50 44.0 45.0
UBS 4.50 5.50 44.0 42.0
6 6 United Overseas Bank 4.50 - 45.4 -
Summary
Minimum 4.00 4.25 42.0 40.5
5 5 Maximum 4.75 5.50 46.0 45.0
Median 4.00 5.00 43.3 42.0
Consensus 4.18 4.79 43.7 42.1
4 4 History
Maximum Maximum 30 days ago 4.47 5.15 44.3 42.4
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum 60 days ago 4.52 5.12 44.9 43.4
3 3 90 days ago 4.67 5.26 44.9 43.5
27 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | PHP per USD
60 50
48
50
46
40
44
30
42
Notes and sources

20 40
General:
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
monetary and external sector data are from the National Statistics Office
(NSO) and the Central Bank of Philippines (BSP, Bangko Sentral ng
29 | PHP/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | PHP/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Pilipinas). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
60 60 Consensus Forecast.
23 Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.

24 Quarterly Treasury Bill 91-days interest rate in % (eop). Source: BSP.
50 50 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: BSP.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, PHP per USD (eop). Source: BSP.
40 40
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: NSO.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: NSO.
Maximum Maximum 33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: BSP.
Consensus Consensus
Minimum 34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts
Minimum
30 30
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: NSO.
36 External debt as % GDP. Source: BSP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Banco de Oro 7.3 8.4 -7.0 -9.0 43.0 46.0 50.0 55.0 55.0 60.0
BPI AMTG - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 6.5 3.8 -12.3 -15.8 45.0 51.1 57.3 66.9 47.5 50.0
Credit Suisse 8.9 7.3 -9.5 -11.7 44.1 48.1 53.7 59.8 - -
DBS Bank 8.0 10.0 -4.0 -2.0 45.0 50.0 49.0 52.0 50.0 54.0
Deutsche Bank 12.7 14.5 -7.3 -8.1 48.6 53.4 55.9 61.5 51.3 63.5
Goldman Sachs 8.6 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 11.6 13.6 -9.3 -12.5 45.9 49.3 55.2 61.8 51.8 53.1
ING 6.3 7.4 -11.8 -10.8 49.5 58.4 61.3 69.2 - -
JPMorgan 7.1 6.5 -8.7 -11.6 43.4 46.9 52.1 58.5 41.4 44.4
Metropolitan Bank and Trust - - -7.0 - 47.0 - 54.0 - - -
Philippine Equity Partners 8.0 6.5 -3.9 -5.4 46.9 52.5 50.8 57.9 - -
UBS 8.0 8.2 -4.4 -5.2 47.6 50.9 52.0 56.1 53.7 63.5
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 6.3 3.8 -12.3 -15.8 43.0 46.0 49.0 52.0 41.4 44.4
Maximum 12.7 14.5 -3.9 -2.0 49.5 58.4 61.3 69.2 55.0 63.5
Median 8.0 8.2 -7.3 -9.9 45.9 50.5 53.7 59.1 51.3 54.0
Consensus 8.6 8.7 -7.7 -9.2 46.0 50.7 53.7 59.9 50.1 55.5
History
30 days ago 8.3 8.8 -8.3 -9.6 45.4 49.3 53.7 58.9 48.0 52.3
60 days ago 7.9 8.1 -7.7 -8.9 45.2 49.1 52.9 58.1 48.0 53.6
90 days ago 7.9 8.1 -7.7 -8.9 45.1 49.1 52.8 58.1 48.0 53.6
8 100 20
Trade Balance Philippines
Exports
Imports Asia (ex Japan)
4 15
50
0 10
0
-4 5
Philippines
Asia (ex Japan)
-8 -50 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
10 30 80
2010
2011
8 15 60
6 0 40
4 -15 20
Philippines Philippines
2 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Philippines in the Region
Official name: Republic of the Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Philippines Philippines Philippines
Capital: Manila (9.9 m) 3% 2%
Other
Other cities: Cebu (1.3 m) Korea 7% Korea
Other
14%
Davao (0.8 m) 2% 10%
Indonesia
Area (km2): 300,000 7% Indonesia
6%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 92.1 China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 307 43%
India
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 2.0 15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 71.1
38% 53%
Language: Filipino and English

100%
2004 2009
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 6.5 20% 18%
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 1.9 Agriculture
75%
50%
32%
Energy (2007) 33%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 489 25%

50% Industry
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 56.6 0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 49.0 25% 50%
47%
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 25 Services -25%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 326 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 77.7 0% Investment Net Exports
Railways (km): 897
Chief Ports: Manila EU-27
USA EU-27
11%
USA 12% 8%
13% Japan
12%
Japan
Political Data Other
Other 14%
22%
9%
President: Benigno Aquino Latin Exports Imports
America
Last elections: 10 May 2010 1% Latin
America China
Next elections: May 2014 Other 2% 15%
China
Central Bank Governor: Amando M. Tetangco Jr. Asia
34%
20% Other
Asia
27%

Moody’s: Ba3 Stable
S&P: BB- Stable Electronics Other
Fitch Ratings: BB Stable 58%5.627902577 13%
Raw
Materials &
Mineral Intermediat
Fuels, e Goods
Lubricants 37%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports & Related Imports
goods
22%
• Widespread English proficiency • Weak fiscal structure Agro-
based
6%
• Well-educated labour force • Large government and Other Other
Capital
external debt Manufactur 11%
goods
• Solid telecom infrastructure es
28%
25%
• Guerilla group activities
• Large domestic market
remains a serious security
threat on southern islands

FOCUSECONOMICS Singapore November 2010
Singapore
Singapore
Outlook improves
• In the third quarter, economic growth slowed to 10.3% from 19.6%
annual growth in the second quarter. The deceleration reflected a
slowdown in manufacturing, due to the characteristic volatility of the
pharmaceutical sector. As a result of the strong economic activity,
monetary authorities tightened the policy stance on 14 October, which
LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages was aimed at curbing incipient inflationary pressures.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14
Population (million): 4.1 4.6 5.2 • Consensus Forecast participants raised their GDP forecasts for the
GDP (USD bn): 94 160 271 eighth consecutive month and now expect the economy to grow 13.7%
this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s esti-
GDP growth (%): 4.9 5.0 6.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): 5.7 6.2 0.9 mate. In 2011, growth is likely to moderate sharply to 4.9%.
Inflation (%): 0.8 2.1 2.2
• Annual inflation jumped from 3.3% to 3.7% in September. Accord-
ingly, Consensus Forecast panellists left their projections unchanged
and expect consumer prices to average 2.8% this year. In 2011, the
panel anticipates inflation to inch down to 2.5%.
Marcos Felipe Casarin REAL SECTOR | Growth slows more than anticipated
Economist In the third quarter, gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 10.3% over the
same quarter the previous year, according to advance estimates released by
the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on 14 October. The reading, which
represented a sharp deceleration compared to the 19.6% expansion tailed
in the second quarter (previously reported: +19.3% year-on-year), undershot
market expectations of 10.8% growth. In seasonally adjusted annualised
terms, the third quarter reading is equivalent to a 19.8% contraction (Q2:
+27.3% qoq saar).
Gross Domestic Product | variation in %
25.0 The strong deceleration mainly reflected a severe slowdown in the manufac-
turing sector, although the other components also decelerated slightly from
19.6
20.0
the peak in the second quarter. Manufacturing sector output expanded 12.1%
16.9
15.0
yoy, which is only a fraction of the 46.1% rise recorded in the April-June
% period. This figure was a result of pharmaceutical production, which typically
10.3
10.0 fluctuates wildly as manufacturers close plants for cleaning before switching
to producing different drugs, and resulted in a seasonally adjusted annualised
5.0 3.8
57.0% plunge in this category, which followed on a 66.6% qoq saar expan-
1.8
sion in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, growth in the all-important services
0.0
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 sector – which accounts for two thirds of GDP – eased from an 11.8% expan-
sion in the second quarter to 10.2% in the third, which, nevertheless, marked
Note: Year-on-year changes in %.
Source: Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and FocusEconomics calcula-
the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
tions.
Since the subdued figure was widely expected by the government, the official
projection for 2010 GDP growth of 13.0% – 15.0%, was maintained, and if
attained, would represented the fastest rate of expansion in more than two
decades. Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to grow 13.7%
this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For
2011, the panel anticipates GDP to expand 4.9%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation rises to 20-month high

In September, consumer prices added 0.1% over the previous month, which
came in well below the 0.5% increase registered in August. The modest
monthly reading was driven by higher prices for food (+0.1% mom) and hous-
ing (+0.4% mom), which more than offset lower prices for clothing and foot-
wear (-1.8% month-on-month).
Inflation | Consumer Price Index As a result of the monthly price increase, annual inflation jumped from 3.3%
in August to 3.7%, which represented the highest level observed since the
2.0 4.0
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) end of 2008, but matched market expectations. As a result of rising inflation,
1.3
annual average inflation rose for the sixth consecutive month in September,
3.0
0.9
1.0
0.6 0.7 0.6
increasing from 1.3% in August to 1.6%.
0.5
0.4 0.4
% 2.0
0.1 0.1
0.0 % The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) conducts its monetary policy
-0.1
1.0
-0.5
through the management of the exchange rate, instead of using interest
-1.0
-1.0 0.0
rates. Monetary authorities last tightened their policy stance on 14 October,
when they announced they would widen the Singapore dollar policy trading
-2.0 -1.0 band and increase its slope – with no immediate change to the level at which
the band is centered.

Source: Statistics Singapore (Singstat). Monetary authorities expect inflation to range between 2.5% and 3.5% this
year. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate inflation to average 2.8%
this year, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2011, the
panel expects average inflation to inch down to 2.5%.
MONETARY SECTOR | MAS tightens policy

On 14 October, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) stated that it will
widen the Singapore dollar policy band and increase its slope – with no
immediate change to the level at which the band is centered.
Exchange Rate | SGD per USD
In its statement, the MAS stated that its policy stance will remain consistent
1.55 with an inflation rate of 2.0% – 3.0% in 2011, down from 2.5% – 3.0% in 2010.
1.50
The MAS conducts its monetary policy through the management of the ex-
change rate, instead of using interest rates. Monetary authorities last tight-
1.45
ened their policy on 14 April, when they re-centered the exchange rate policy
1.40 band and shifted the policy band from that of a zero percent appreciation path
to one of modest and gradual appreciation. At that moment, the decision
1.35
“took into account the strong rebound of the Singapore economy from the
1.30
downturn and incipient inflationary pressures emanating from domestic and
1.25 external sources”.
Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10
As a result of the change in the country’s policy stance, Consensus Forecast

Note: Daily spot and 30-day moving average of the Singapore dollar (SGD) against
U.S. dollar (USD). panellists cut their year-end forecasts for the Singapore dollar and now ex-
Source: Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
pect the currency to close this year at 1.33 per USD. In 2011, the panel
anticipates the SGD to close the year at 1.30 per USD.


Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 121 141 172 188 177 225 251 276 294 310
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 3.8 3.1 6.5 2.7 0.4 6.7 5.1 5.2 4.8 4.6
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) -0.1 14.6 19.9 13.6 -3.3 10.2 7.6 6.7 6.7 6.9
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 9.5 11.9 5.9 -4.2 -4.2 30.4 6.9 7.6 6.7 6.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) 8.1 7.2 12.1 5.7 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.9
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 1.3 0.8 4.4 4.3 -0.6 - - - - -
Inflation (DSPI, annual variation in %) 11.3 -1.4 9.9 -18.8 12.7 - - - - -
Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 3.25 3.44 2.63 1.00 0.69 0.54 0.84 1.84 2.50 2.55
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, eop) 1.66 1.53 1.44 1.44 1.40 1.33 1.30 1.27 1.30 1.29
Exchange Rate (SGD per USD, average) 1.66 1.59 1.51 1.41 1.45 1.36 1.31 1.29 1.29 1.29
External Sector
Exports (USD bn) 230 272 299 337 269 339 381 420 474 541
Imports (USD bn) 200 238 263 319 245 301 340 374 422 498
Interbank 3-Month Interest Rate (%, eop) 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.56 0.50 0.54 0.53 0.64 0.66 0.84
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 15.3 42.0 20.5 53.4 49.8 59.4 29.5 9.9 8.1 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.6 -1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -0.6 0.2 1.0 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.7

15 20
Singapore Individual Forecasts 2010 2011
Singapore
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) ANZ 10.4 4.3
World World
10
10
5
DBS Bank 15.0 4.5
0 Goldman Sachs 16.5 4.8
HSBC 13.2 4.6
ING 13.0 6.0
-5 -10 JPMorgan 14.8 4.2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 OCBC Bank 14.0 5.0
UBS 14.5 5.0
20 8
Maximum
Consensus Summary
15 Minimum 6
Minimum 9.0 4.0
Maximum 16.5 6.5
Median 14.1 4.9
10 4 Consensus 13.7 4.9
History
30 days ago 13.5 5.0
5 2 Maximum 60 days ago 12.8 5.2
Minimum Additional Forecasts
0 0 MTI (July 2010) 13.0 - 15.0 -
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep IMF (Oct. 2010) 15.0 4.5
ADB (Sep. 2010) 14.0 5.0
15 30
20
10
10
5
Notes and sources
0
General:
0 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
-10
sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat), the Ministry of
Singapore Singapore Manpower, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the International
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) Monetary Fund (IMF). See below for details. Forecasts based on
-5 -20
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.

Source: MTI and Singstat.
2011 2011 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
10 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
6
18 months.
8 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: Singstat.
4 10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: Ministry of Manpower.
11 Balance of general government, % of GDP. Source: IMF.
6
last 18 months.
2 4 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of general government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 11.0 4.5 13.5 5.0 - - 2.0 2.0 0.0 1.0
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.6 4.3 12.9 8.4 - - 2.0 2.0 -1.8 2.0
Credit Suisse - 5.2 - 9.0 - - 2.2 2.2 -0.7 0.1
DBS Bank 6.2 6.1 7.1 6.9 24.2 6.3 2.0 1.8 - -
Deutsche Bank 5.1 4.6 9.6 7.8 31.2 5.7 1.6 1.3 3.1 3.8
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.5 -
HSBC 6.1 6.0 5.0 6.2 31.3 8.2 1.5 1.7 -0.2 1.4
ING 5.3 4.8 7.3 8.5 - 8.5 - - 0.2 1.2
JPMorgan - - - - 31.2 3.4 2.3 2.1 - -
OCBC Bank 6.9 4.4 10.0 6.2 28.0 7.8 2.1 2.2 -0.8 1.0
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - 0.0 1.0
UBS 4.7 5.1 5.0 6.1 - - - - -1.0 0.7
Summary
Minimum 4.7 4.3 5.0 5.0 24.2 3.4 1.5 1.3 -2.7 -2.3
Maximum 11.0 6.1 21.5 11.9 36.8 8.5 2.3 2.5 3.1 3.8
Median 6.1 5.0 9.6 7.4 31.2 7.8 2.0 2.0 -0.8 1.0
Consensus 6.7 5.1 10.2 7.6 30.4 6.9 2.0 2.0 -0.6 0.8
History
30 days ago 6.6 4.8 10.6 7.7 28.4 6.7 2.0 2.0 -0.9 0.6
60 days ago 5.3 4.6 11.3 8.0 26.8 8.4 2.1 2.1 -1.1 0.5
90 days ago 5.2 4.6 11.1 8.0 23.2 7.7 2.1 2.0 -1.1 0.5

32 5 16
Singapore Singapore
Singapore Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) World
24
4
16 8
8 3
0 0
2
-8
-16 1 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
40 5 4
2010 2010
2011 2011
30 4
2
20 3
0
10 2
2010
2011
0 1 -2

12 10
Singapore
ANZ 2.8 2.5
Asia (ex Japan)
8
5
4
DBS Bank 3.0 2.7
Singapore
HSBC 2.2 2.7
Asia (ex Japan) ING 2.5 2.0
-4 -5 JPMorgan 2.5 1.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 OCBC Bank 3.1 2.6
UBS 2.5 1.5
4 4
Summary
3
Minimum 2.2 1.5
2 Maximum 3.5 3.5
Median 2.9 2.6
2 Consensus 2.8 2.5
History
0 30 days ago 2.8 2.5
1 60 days ago 2.7 2.6
Maximum
Consensus Maximum 90 days ago 2.7 2.6
Minimum Consensus Additional Forecasts
Minimum
-2 0 ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.0 2.0
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep IMF (Oct. 2010) 2.8 2.4
19 | DSPI | annual variation in % 20 | Money | % variation

14 30
7
20
10
-7
0
-14
-21 -10
2004 2006 2008 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | 10-year Bond Yield | in % 22 | Stock Market | Straits Times Index Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
4.0 4,000 monetary sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat) and the
Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). See below for details. Forecasts
based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
3.5 15 Inflation, annual variation in consumer price index (CPI) in % (eop).

3,000 Source: Singstat.
3.0 (CPI) in % (eop). Source: Singstat.
2,000
19 Domestic supply price index, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-2009.
2.5 Source: Singstat.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: MAS.
21 10-year bond yield in %. Jan. 2005 until the end of previous month.
2.0 1,000 Source: MAS.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul
22 Daily index levels, Straits Times Index. Source: Singapore Exchange
Limited. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.

23 | Interest Rate | 1995 - 2014 | in % 24 | Interest Rate | Q1 07-Q4 11 | in % Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
8 3
% SGD per USD
Individual Forecasts 2010 2011 2010 2011
6 ANZ 0.55 - 1.36 1.34
2 Capital Economics - - 1.35 1.36
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 0.50 0.70 1.34 1.32
4 Credit Suisse 0.55 0.60 1.35 1.30
1 DBS Bank 0.41 - 1.30 1.31
2 Deutsche Bank 0.60 0.70 1.30 1.25
Goldman Sachs 0.70 0.90 1.29 1.25
HSBC 0.50 1.10 1.32 1.27
0 0 ING 0.30 1.00 1.29 1.26
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan - - 1.32 1.33
OCBC Bank 0.55 0.80 1.35 1.34
RBC Capital Markets - - 1.36 1.32
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
3 4
UBS 0.80 1.25 1.33 1.30
Maximum Maximum
Consensus United Overseas Bank - - 1.36 -
Consensus
Minimum Summary
Minimum
3 Minimum 0.30 0.50 1.28 1.24
2 Maximum 0.80 1.25 1.36 1.36
Median 0.55 0.80 1.34 1.31
2 Consensus 0.54 0.84 1.33 1.30
History
1 30 days ago 0.61 0.85 1.35 1.33
1 60 days ago 0.72 1.56 1.36 1.33
90 days ago 0.72 1.64 1.36 1.33
0 0
27 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | SGD per USD
2.0 1.6
1.5
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.3
Notes and sources
General:
1.3 1.2
monetary and external sector data are from Statistics Singapore (Singstat),
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Ministry of Trade and
Industry (MTI). See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics
Consensus Forecast.
29 | SGD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | SGD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
1.8 1.8 23 Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop). Source: MAS.
Maximum Maximum 24 Quarterly Interbank 3-month interest rate in % (eop). Source: MAS.
Consensus Consensus
27 Exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: MAS.
1.6 1.6 28 Quarterly exchange rate, SGD per USD (eop). Source: MAS.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: MTI.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: MTI and
1.4 1.4
Singstat.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: MAS.
35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: MTI and Singstat.
1.2 1.2
36 International reserves in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 36.8 34.7 34.6 39.8 335 380 300 340 - -
Credit Suisse 39.1 43.0 29.7 32.3 330 386 301 354 208 228
DBS Bank 39.0 36.0 - - - - - - 214 235
Deutsche Bank 48.7 62.3 48.5 59.6 345 405 297 345 222 265
Goldman Sachs 50.5 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 40.8 48.1 38.8 43.0 337 373 298 330 227 267
ING 44.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 321 354 272 303 200 210
JPMorgan 29.5 25.7 31.9 25.5 356 400 324 375 231 254
OCBC Bank 39.0 39.3 34.8 36.2 354 376 319 340 - -
RBC Capital Markets - - - - - - - - - -
UBS 40.0 40.0 30.0 30.1 - - - - 202 214
Summary
Minimum 25.8 25.7 29.7 25.5 321 354 272 303 200 210
Maximum 50.5 62.3 49.0 59.6 356 405 324 375 231 267
Median 39.1 39.6 34.8 39.8 337 378 299 340 213 232
Consensus 39.5 39.8 37.4 39.8 339 381 301 340 214 238
History
30 days ago 38.2 38.0 34.7 36.3 337 377 302 340 212 233
60 days ago 39.0 39.4 35.4 36.9 336 373 299 334 211 230
90 days ago 38.8 39.3 35.0 36.5 330 373 294 335 213 235
30 600 20
Trade Balance Singapore
Imports
20
400 15
10
200 10
0
Singapore
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
34 | Current Account | evol. of fcst 35 | Exports | annual variation in % 36 | Int. Reserves (USD bn) | evol. of fcst
45 30 250
2010 2010
2011 2011
40
15
225
35
0
30
200
-15
25
Singapore
Asia (ex Japan)
20 -30 175
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 1995 2000 2005 2010 Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

Fact Sheet
General Data Singapore in the Region
Official name: Republic of Singapore Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Singapore (4.5m) Singapore Singapore
0.2% 2%
Korea Other
Area (km2): 710 1.5% 10% Korea
Other
14%
10%
Population (million, 2009 est.): 5.0
Indonesia
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 7,023 7% Indonesia
6%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 3.1 China
India
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 7.5 15%
Language: Mandarin, English,
Malay and Tamil India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 77.2 Manufacturing
27% 25%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 23.7 75%
Construction
75%
4% 5%
17% 16% Wholesale & Retail 50%

Trade
Energy (2007)
50%
Primary Energy Consumption (trillion Btu): 2,293 12% 13%
Financial Services
25%
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 38.7 13% 14%
Business Services
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 9 0%

28% 26%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 907 Other Services 2003 2005 2007 2009
Transportation (2009) Trade Structure

Airports: 8
Chief Ports: Singapore
Japan
EU-27 USA
4% EU-27
9% 11%
12%
USA China
6% 20%
Japan
Political Data Other 8%
24%
President: Sellapan Rama Nathan Exports Imports
Other
China
19%
Last elections: 17 August 2005 12%
Next elections: August 2011 Latin

America
Latin
Monetary Authority, Chairman: Goh Chok Tong America 2%
3% Other Asia
39% Other Asia
31%

Moody’s: Aaa Stable
S&P: AAA Stable
Other
Fitch Ratings: AAA Stable Other
16% 14%
Chemicals
6%
Chemicals Manufactur Machinery
12% Machinery ed goods and
Strengths Weaknesses Exports and 7% Imports equipment
equipment 48%
52%
• High-level education system • Small domestic market
Mineral
• High-tech and stable economy • Dependence on external fuels
Mineral
fuels
20%
sector 25%
• Excellent infra-structure and
communications • Comparatively high labour
costs
• Low inflationary environment
• Lack of natural resources

FOCUSECONOMICS Taiwan November 2010
Taiwan
Taiwan
Outlook improves
• Economic growth is likely to remain solid, as rising payrolls should
buttress domestic demand. In addition, exports remain robust but are
decelerating amid a less favourable comparison base.
• Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to expand

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages 8.3% this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 forecast. For 2011, the panel expects economic growth to moderate
Population (million): 22.5 23.0 23.4 to 4.2%.
GDP (USD bn): 312 380 501
GDP growth (%): 3.9 3.0 5.4 • Inflation bounced back from minus 0.5% in August to 0.3% in
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -4.0 -1.2 -1.9 September. Even though inflation remains benign, the Central Bank
Inflation (%): 0.5 1.5 1.6
lifted interest rates in September, arguing that the economy was
External Debt (% of GDP): 16.3 23.2 19.6 performing better than expected amid strong exports. Consensus
Forecast participants expect inflation to average 1.2% this year, which
is unchanged over last month’s forecast. For next year, the panel
sees average inflation rising to 1.5%.
Joan Enric Domene REAL SECTOR | Industrial production decelerates in September

Economist In September, industrial production expanded 12.2% over the same month
last year. The figure halved the 23.7% expansion recorded in August (previously
reported: +23.4% year-on-year) and undershot market expectations, which
had anticipated industrial output would grow 15.0%.
The deceleration in September was mainly driven by slower growth in the

manufacturing sector, which expanded 13.1% (August: +25.0% yoy). In
75.0
addition, mining and quarrying decelerated from a 30.2% expansion in August
70.1
Year-on-year Annual Average to 22.7% in September. Finally, electricity, gas and water supply added 0.4%
47.8
(August: +4.1% yoy).
50.0
39.5
35.5
32.0 32.0 31.0
24.7 23.7 A month-on-month comparison corroborates the deceleration suggested by
25.0 20.9
12.2 the annual figures, as industrial production contracted 2.90% over the previous
% 7.4
2.8 month in seasonally adjusted terms, which contrasted the 1.00% expansion
0.0
observed in August.
-25.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep However, the trend in industrial production continues to point up. As a result
of the monthly reading, annual average growth in industrial production stepped
Note: Year-on-year and annual average variation of industrial production up from 28.4% in August to 29.3%. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate
index in %.
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics (DGBAS) industrial production to grow 22.9% this year and to decelerate to 6.2% in
and FocusEconomics calculations.
2011.
The government anticipates GDP to expand 8.2% this year and 4.6% in 2011.
Consensus Forecast panellists broadly share this assessment and expect
the economy to grow 8.3% this year, which up 0.2 percentage points over last
month. For 2011, the panel sees economic growth moderating to 4.2%.

MONETARY SECTOR | Prices rise in September as thyphoon pushes food

prices
In September, consumer prices added 0.09% over the previous month. The
2.0 3.0 reading came in above the 0.02% price rise recorded in August and was
broadly in line with market expectations. The increase was mainly due to the
1.0 0.84 1.5
effects of the Typhoon Fanapi and the demand associated with the Mid-
% 0.41
0.53
0.34 0.31 %
Autumn Festival, which together pushed up prices for food and commodities.
0.10 0.02 0.09
0.0 0.0
-0.16 As a result of the monthly reading, annual inflation bounced back from minus
-0.46
-1.0
-0.66
-0.76 -1.5
0.5% in August to plus 0.3% in September. Moreover, annual average inflation
-0.95
inched up from 0.3% in August to 0.4%. Meanwhile, the core inflation index,
Monthly (left scale) Annual (right scale) which excludes volatile categories such as fresh food and energy, remained
-2.0 -3.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep unchanged over the previous month. However, annual core inflation rose
from 0.4% in August to 0.7%.
Note: Monthly and annual variation of consumer price index in %.
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics and
FocusEconomics calculations.
The Central Bank raised the discount rate as expected at the last quarterly
policy meeting on 30 September. The Bank lifted the policy rate by 12.5 basis
points to 1.50%, arguing that the economy was performing better than
expected amid strong exports and investment.
The government expects inflation to average 1.2% this year. Consensus

Forecast panellists share this assessment and anticipate average inflation
to rise to 1.2% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For
2011, the panel expects average inflation to rise further to 1.5%.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 353 376 398 383 388 428 464 502 537 576
Private Consumption (annual var. in %) 2.9 1.5 2.1 -0.6 1.5 3.1 3.1 4.0 3.3 3.3
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 2.7 0.1 0.6 -11.2 -11.8 17.2 4.8 5.0 4.6 4.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) 3.8 4.7 7.8 -1.8 -8.1 22.9 6.2 7.9 6.7 6.6
Money (annual variation of M1A in %) 7.4 2.9 2.8 2.1 21.8 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 2.2 0.7 3.3 1.3 -0.2 - - - - -
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 2.3 0.6 1.8 3.5 -0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9
Inflation (Core, annual variation in %) 0.5 0.7 2.6 2.1 -0.7 - - - - -
Inflation (WPI, annual variation in %) 1.7 6.5 8.4 -9.1 5.6 - - - - -
CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 2.25 2.75 3.38 2.00 1.25 1.59 1.98 2.11 2.33 2.48
Stock Market (variation of TAIEX in %) 6.7 19.5 8.7 -41.8 65.4 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, eop) 32.9 32.6 32.4 32.9 32.0 31.1 30.4 30.1 30.2 29.8
Exchange Rate (TWD per USD, average) 33.3 32.5 32.4 33.1 32.3 31.6 30.8 30.3 30.1 30.0
External Sector
Current Account (% of GDP) 5.0 7.0 8.8 7.2 11.1 8.5 7.0 6.5 6.6 6.5
Current Account (USD bn) 17.6 26.3 35.2 27.5 42.9 36.2 32.4 32.8 35.7 37.4
Exports (USD bn) 198 224 247 255 203 265 291 322 349 381
Imports (USD bn) 179 200 216 236 173 241 268 299 325 357
Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %) -1.0 9.1 13.7 12.5 7.1 3.0 2.6 3.2 4.8 6.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %) -4.6 27.0 47.2 29.1 15.6 7.0 4.2 5.9 7.3 7.5
CB Discount Rate (%, eop) 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.38 1.47 1.59 1.80 1.95 2.02 1.98
Unemployment (eop, % of active population) 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.46 0.10 0.53 -0.95 0.84 -0.16 0.34 0.31 0.02 0.09
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) -0.2 0.3 2.3 1.3 1.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 -0.5 0.3
Exports (annual variation in %) 46.8 75.8 32.6 50.1 47.7 57.5 34.1 38.5 26.6 17.5

12 20
Taiwan
World
Chung-Hua Institute 6.9 4.8
6 10
0 0 DBS Bank 9.5 3.8
Taiwan Goldman Sachs 8.7 4.4
Asia (ex Japan) HSBC 7.3 4.9
World
-6 -10 ING 8.4 4.7
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 9.9 4.1
Morgan Stanley - -
Polaris Securities 8.1 3.6
12 7
Maximum UBS 8.0 3.2
Maximum
Consensus
Consensus United Overseas Bank 7.5 4.6
6 Minimum
9 Minimum Summary
Minimum 6.2 3.1
5 Maximum 9.9 5.1
6 Median 8.5 4.2
4
Consensus 8.3 4.2
History
3 30 days ago 8.1 4.2
3
60 days ago 7.3 4.3
90 days ago 6.9 4.3
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DGBAS (Aug. 2010) 8.2 4.6
IMF (Oct. 2010) 9.3 4.4
ADB (Sep. 2010) 7.7 4.0
9 30
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
6 15
3 0
Notes and sources
General:
0 -15 Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All real
Taiwan
sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and
Asia (ex Japan)
Statistics (DGBAS) and National Statistics. See below for details. Fore-
casts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
-3 -30
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.
Source: DGBAS.
2010 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.
2011 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %. Source: DGBAS.
15 7 Private consumption, change in 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
18 months.
3
last 18 months.
10 9 Industrial production, annual variation in %. Source: National Statistics.
10 Unemployment, % of active population. Source: National Statistics.
2 11 Balance of central and local government, % of GDP. Source: National
Statistics.
5
2010
last 18 months.
2011 13 Unemployment, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
1 0 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of central and local government, evolution of 2010 and 2011


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 3.5 3.0 22.0 5.0 - - - - - -
Chung-Hua Institute 2.4 2.9 15.8 8.6 - - 5.0 4.8 - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 3.0 3.0 21.3 6.5 26.0 4.5 5.3 4.9 -4.0 -2.2
Credit Suisse - - - - - - 5.0 4.0 - -
Daiwa Capital Markets 5.5 4.7 16.2 5.5 - - - - -2.9 -2.7
DBS Bank 2.9 2.8 22.1 4.4 - - 5.0 4.6 -2.4 -1.8
Deutsche Bank 2.7 2.5 18.7 4.3 15.0 8.0 5.0 4.5 -3.6 -3.2
Goldman Sachs - - - - - - - - -2.4 -
HSBC 2.5 4.9 13.4 5.2 24.6 8.1 5.2 4.7 -3.4 -2.8
ING - - - - - - - - -3.2 -2.7
JPMorgan - - - - 25.7 7.8 5.2 4.5 -1.5 -1.0
Morgan Stanley - - 6.9 5.6 - - - - -2.0 -1.5
Polaris Securities 2.6 2.2 16.5 0.2 23.0 2.5 5.2 5.1 - -
UBS 2.9 2.1 19.4 2.9 - - - - -3.3 -2.9
Summary
Minimum 2.4 2.1 6.9 0.2 15.0 2.5 5.0 4.0 -4.0 -3.2
Maximum 5.5 4.9 22.1 8.6 26.0 8.1 5.3 5.1 -1.5 -1.0
Median 2.9 2.9 17.6 5.1 24.6 7.8 5.0 4.6 -2.9 -2.4
Consensus 3.1 3.1 17.2 4.8 22.9 6.2 5.1 4.6 -2.8 -2.3
History
30 days ago 3.0 2.9 17.2 4.9 21.7 6.2 5.1 4.6 -2.7 -2.1
60 days ago 2.5 2.6 14.4 5.7 19.7 7.9 5.1 4.6 -2.7 -2.2
90 days ago 2.3 2.4 14.1 5.7 19.7 7.9 5.2 4.6 -2.9 -2.3

30 6 4
Taiwan
Taiwan Asia (ex Japan)
Asia (ex Japan) 5 World
15 0
4
3
0 -4
2
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
-15 1 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
25 7 -1
2010 2010 2010

2011 2011 2011
20
6 -2
15
5 -3
10
5 4 -4

Monetary Sector | Inflation, Money, Wholesale Prices and Stock Market
12 10
Taiwan
Chung-Hua Institute 1.5 1.5
5
6 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 1.0 1.5
3
0 DBS Bank 0.9 1.4
Taiwan
-3 -5 ING 0.9 1.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 1.0 1.8
Polaris Securities 1.0 0.6
3 4
Maximum UBS 1.1 0.9
Consensus United Overseas Bank 1.5 2.0
2 Minimum
3
Summary
Minimum 0.8 0.6
1 Maximum 1.9 2.2
2 Median 1.1 1.5
0
Consensus 1.2 1.5
History
1 30 days ago 1.2 1.6
-1
Maximum 60 days ago 1.3 1.6
Minimum
-2 0 Additional Forecasts
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep DGBAS (Aug. 2010) 1.2 1.4
IMF (Oct. 2010) 1.5 1.5
19 | Core and Wholesale Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
ADB (Sep. 2010) 1.5 1.6
10 30
Core Price Index
WPI
5 20
0 10
-5 0
-10 -10 Notes and sources

1995 2000 2005 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
General:
21 | MSCI Price Index 22 | Stock Market | TAIEX monetary sector data are from the Directorate-General of Budget,
Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the Republic
400 10,000 of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Con-
sensus Forecast.

%. Source: DGBAS.
300 8,000
%. Source: DGBAS.
200 6,000 19 Core and wholesale price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 1995-
2009. Source: DGBAS.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009. Source: Central
Bank.
21 Daily MSCI index in USD. From Jan. 2008 until end of previous
100 4,000 month. Source: MSCI Barra.
Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 22 Daily index levels, TAIEX. Jan. 2008 until end of previous month.
Source: Taiwan Stock Exchange.

6 4
% TWD per USD
ANZ 1.63 2.13 32.0 31.0
4 3
Chung-Hua Institute - - 30.9 30.6
2 2 Credit Suisse 1.63 2.38 31.2 30.5
Daiwa Capital Markets 1.50 2.00 31.3 30.6
DBS Bank 1.75 - 30.8 -
Deutsche Bank 1.38 1.88 30.8 30.5
0 1 Goldman Sachs - - 30.3 29.5
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 HSBC 1.50 1.75 31.2 30.4
ING 1.63 2.00 30.3 30.0
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst
JPMorgan 1.50 1.75 31.2 30.5
3
Morgan Stanley - - - -
3
Maximum Maximum Polaris Securities - - - -
Consensus Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 1.63 2.13 30.8 29.6
Minimum
Minimum UBS 1.63 2.00 32.0 31.0
Summary
Minimum 1.38 1.75 30.3 29.5
Maximum 1.75 2.38 32.0 31.0
1 1 Median 1.63 2.00 31.2 30.5
Consensus 1.59 1.98 31.1 30.4
History
30 days ago 1.62 2.00 31.5 30.7
0 0 60 days ago 1.64 2.02 31.5 30.8
90 days ago 1.64 2.00 31.6 30.7
27 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | TWD per USD
40 35
35 33
30 31
Notes and sources
General:
25 29 monetary and external sector data are from the Directorate-General of
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) and the Central Bank of the
Republic of China. See below for details. Forecasts based on
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
29 | TWD/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | TWD/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts
40 36
23 Interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in % (eop).
Maximum Source: Central Bank.
Maximum Consensus
Consensus 24 Quarterly interest rate, Central Bank Overnight Borrowing Rate in %
Minimum
Minimum (eop). Source: Central Bank.
35 32 26 Interest rate, evolution of 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
27 Exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank.
28 Quarterly exchange rate, TWD per USD (eop). Source: Central Bank.
30 28 31 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: Central Bank.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn. Source: Central
Bank.
33 International reserves, months of imports. Source: Central Bank.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 35 Exports, annual variation in %. Source: Central Bank.
36 External debt as % GDP. Source: Central Bank.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
Chung-Hua Institute 45.2 47.1 19.3 18.0 265 304 246 286 - -
Credit Suisse 33.8 28.3 26.2 23.9 292 331 265 307 388 417
DBS Bank 38.0 26.0 25.0 23.0 275 296 250 273 380 405
Deutsche Bank 38.7 27.6 24.8 17.7 276 304 251 286 399 435
Goldman Sachs 43.5 - - - - - - - - -
HSBC 36.5 28.7 27.9 26.1 264 286 236 260 386 421
ING 50.0 48.0 33.0 31.0 234 262 201 231 345 355
JPMorgan 33.1 35.0 24.7 25.8 246 282 221 256 388 430
Morgan Stanley 26.1 24.1 - - - - - - - -
Polaris Securities 31.3 32.7 23.5 17.9 271 279 248 261 - -
UBS 40.3 29.8 27.9 24.8 274 290 246 265 - -
Summary
Minimum 26.1 24.1 13.4 9.2 234 262 201 231 345 355
Maximum 50.0 48.0 33.0 31.0 292 331 265 307 399 435
Median 34.8 30.4 25.0 23.9 265 286 246 265 384 416
Consensus 36.2 32.4 24.8 22.2 265 291 241 268 381 410
History
30 days ago 35.6 33.1 24.7 23.2 265 292 241 268 379 407
60 days ago 33.6 32.8 23.0 21.1 241 265 218 244 376 405
90 days ago 33.3 32.3 23.6 22.3 262 289 238 267 376 405
15 400 25
Trade Balance
Taiwan Taiwan
Exports
Asia (ex Japan) Imports Asia (ex Japan)
10 300 20
5 200 15
0 100 10
-5 0 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
40 40 60
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
2010
2011
20
35 40
30 20
-20
Taiwan
Asia (ex Japan)
25 -40 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Taiwan in the Region

Official name: Taiwan / Republic
of China Taiwan
Capital: Taipei (2.6 m) 1% Taiwan
4%
Other cities: Kaohsiung (1.5 m) Korea
2%
Other Other
9% Korea
12%
Taichung (1.1 m) 10%
Indonesia
Tainan (0.8 m) 7% Indonesia
6%
Area (km2): 35,980
China
Population (million, 2009 est.): 23.0 43%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 640 India
15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 78.0 India China
53%
Illiteracy rate (%, 2000): 3.9 38%
Language: Mandarin Chinese and

Taiwanese

100%
2004 2009
Telephones - mobile cellular (per 100 inhabit.): 117 100% 1.9 1.5
Agriculture, Forestry
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 69.8 and Fishing
22.5 75%
Manufacturing
75%
50%
17.9 Wholesale and Retail
Energy (2007) 18.2 Trade
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 479 7.6 Finance and Insurance 25%
50% 6.7
8.8
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 225 8.6
7.2
Real Estate
0%
Electricity Consumption (billion kW-h): 215 25% Public Administration
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 12 33.0 31.0
and Defense
-25%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 962 Other
2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 308 0% Net exports Investment
Chief Ports: Chilung, Hualien, Kaohsiung
Asia (ex-
China)
41% Asia (ex-
China)
41%
Political Data Other Other
10% 25%
President: Ma Ying-jeou Exports Imports
Last elections: 22 March 2008
EU-27
Next elections: March 2012 10%
Mainland
Central Bank President: Perng Fai-nan China
EU-27 Mainland
United 9% China
States 27% United
14%
12% States
11%

Moody’s: Aa3 Stable
S&P: AA- Stable Consumer
Non- Other
Fitch Ratings: A+ Stable Heavy 1% goods
9%
Industries
16% Capital
goods
15%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Imports

• Well educated labour force • Limited natural resources
Raw
• Strong legal system • Risk of armed conflict with Materials
Heavy
China Industries
• Open market economy 83%
76%
• Lack of representation in
international organisations

FOCUSECONOMICS Thailand November 2010
Thailand
Thailand
Outlook improves
• Industrial manufacturing increased 8.7% in August, returning to single-
digit growth for the first time in eight months. Moreover, resilient ex-
port growth may fade, as the currency continues to appreciate and
external demand slumps.
• Consensus Forecast participants revised their 2010 growth projec-

LONG-TERM TRENDS | 5-year averages tions upwards and now expect the economy to grow 7.4% this year,
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2011,
Population (million): 62.2 65.2 68.1 the panel sees economic growth moderating to 4.4%.
GDP (USD bn): 134 233 374
GDP per capita (US$): 2,148 3,568 5,476
GDP growth (%): 5.1 3.0 5.4 • Inflation fell to 3.0% in September from 3.3% in August, prompting the
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -1.1 -1.3 -2.4 Central Bank to pause the monetary tightening cycle in its 20 October
Inflation (%): 1.7 3.2 3.0
meeting. Consensus Forecast panellists expect inflation to average
External Debt (% of GDP): 47.7 26.8 20.6 3.3% this year, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In
2011, the panel expects inflation to fall to 3.1%.
Ricardo Aceves REAL SECTOR | Manufacturing production slows in August

Economist In August, industrial manufacturing expanded 8.7% over the same month the
previous year, which came in below the 13.1% observed in July. The reading
represented a return to single-digit growth in manufacturing output after eight
consecutive months of double-digit growth. Manufacturing data come from a
new series introduced in August, replacing the old manufacturing production
index (MPI) series.
Manufacturing Production | variation in % The main drivers behind August’s deceleration were a sharp fall in commu-
nication and equipment apparatus production (July: +5.8% year-on-year;
10.0 9.09 20.0
August: -4.7% yoy). In addition, manufacture of radio, television and commu-
6.30
nication equipment halved the 23.2% expansion recorded in July, expanding
5.0
5.22
4.30 10.0
11.6%.
% 1.36 1.77 %
0.0
-0.01
0.0
A month-on-month analysis confirms the deterioration suggested by annual
-0.25
figures, as manufacturing production declined 3.61% over the previous month
-2.12 -1.71
-3.61 in seasonally adjusted terms, which was larger than the 1.71% contraction
-5.0 -4.36 -10.0
-6.43
recorded in July. Despite the softer growth in August, the trend continued to
MoM s.a. (left scale)
Annual Average (right scale) improve, as the annual average growth in manufacturing output rose from
-10.0 -20.0
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 14.7% in July to 16.4%. Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate manufac-
turing production to rise 15.4% this year.
Note: Annual average and seasonally adjusted month-on-month variation of
manufacturing production index in %.
Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT) and FocusEconomics calculations.
The Central Bank has recently revised its growth forecast amid clear signs of
robust fundamentals and now expects the economy to expand between 6.5%
and 7.5% this year, which would represent the fastest pace since 1995.
Meanwhile, the Finance Ministry expects the economy to expand 7.8% this
year, despite the political clashes between the government and the red-
shirted protesters during April and May.

Consensus Forecast participants anticipate the economy to expand 7.4%

this year, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next
year, participants expect economic growth to pick up to 4.4%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Inflation falls in September

In September, consumer prices slipped 0.09% over the previous month,
which contrasted the 0.28% increase observed in August. The reading marked
the first monthly drop observed this year. The monthly fall reflected declining
prices for transport and communication as well as for energy, as government
subsidies helped containing inflationary pressures.
Inflation | Consumer Price Index As a result of September’s reading, annual headline inflation moderated
from 3.3% in August to 3.0% in September, undershooting market expecta-
0.6 0.57 0.56 0.56 6.0 tions, which had inflation remaining stable at 3.3%. Core inflation, which
excludes fresh food and energy prices, remained unchanged over the previ-
0.4 3.0 ous month. As a result, annual core inflation inched down from 1.2% in
0.28 0.28 0.28
August to 1.1% in September.
0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
0.2 0.0
0.09
% % That said, the inflation trend continues to point upwards, as annual average
0.0 -3.0 inflation rose from 2.7% in August to 3.0% in September, which marked the
Monthly (left scale) -0.09
highest level since April 2009. Nevertheless, at the current level, inflation
-0.09
Annual (right scale)
-0.2 -6.0 remains within the Central Bank’s target range of 0.5% - 3.0%, which is
based on quarterly average core inflation (the current quarterly average is
1.1%).
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics.
In its last July inflation report, monetary authorities expect headline inflation
to stay within a range of 2.5% and 3.8% this year. For 2011, inflation is pro-
jected to average within a range of 2.5% and 4.5%. Consensus Forecast
panellists estimate average inflation rising to 3.3% by the end of the year,
which is unchanged from last month’s Consensus Forecast. For 2011,
panellists anticipate that average inflation will moderate to 3.1%.
MONETARY SECTOR | Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged

At its 20 October monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) de-
cided to leave the one-day repurchase rate unchanged at 1.75% in a deci-
sion widely expected by the market. The decision follows on two straights 25
One-Day Repurchase Rate | in % basis-points’ increases in July and August.
4.0
Monetary authorities argued that the recovery in the world economy contin-
ues, albeit at a slower pace, with large economies - such as the U.S. and
3.0
Japan - still remaining “fragile” due to risks stemming from high unemploy-
ment and faltering domestic demand. In addition, European economies con-
% tinue to face the challenge of tightening budgets in the year ahead, which will
2.0 adversely affect Thai exports amid lower external demand.
BoT Assistant Governor Paiboon Kittisrikangwan added that the economy is

1.0 expected to grow mainly as a result of strong domestic demand but inflation-
Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10
ary pressures are expected to remain at bay. The next monetary policy meet-
Note: One-Day Repurchase Rate, in %.
ing is scheduled for 1 December.
Source: Bank of Thailand (BoT).
Against this backdrop, Consensus Forecast panellists expect monetary au-

thorities to rise the one-day repurchase rate to 2.00%, with an average of
2.01% by end-2010. In 2011, the panel expects the monetary policy rate to
average 2.75%.

EXCHANGE RATE | Baht rises to the highest level in 19 months

By 22 October, the exchange rate appreciated 2.7% in nominal terms over the
previous month to reach 29.6 Thai baht (THB) per USD, the strongest level
since the peak observed in March 2009. The baht has gained an accumu-
lated 11.7% versus the USD this year and, at the current level, is trading
Exchange Rate | THB per USD 12.0% stronger than the same month last year.
40 The October appreciation continues the almost uninterrupted trend observed

38 since June. The upward movement has been gaining momentum in recent
weeks, which has prompted the Finance Ministry to remove a 15% withhold-
36
ing-tax exemption for foreign investors on interest payments and capital gains
34 from government bonds, as well as bonds issued by the Central Bank. The
32
measure went into effect on 13 October.
30
Despite the persistent appreciation, exports rose 21.2% annually to a record
28 USD 18.1 billion in September. Nevertheless, Commerce Minister Porntiva
Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Nakasai stated that the strong baht caused around THB 70 billion (USD 2.3
Note: Daily spot and 30-day moving average of Thai baht (THB) against U.S. dollar
billion) losses in exports in September alone. In addition, Porntiva estimates
(USD). that the strong currency may hurt overseas sales by as much as THB 40
Source: Bank of Thailand and FocusEconomics calculations.
billion (USD 1.3 billion) per month until the end of the year if the baht remains
at its current level.
Consensus Forecast participants expect the currency to depreciate further

by the end of the year, with the exchange rate reaching 30.5 baht to the USD.

Annual Data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real Sector
GDP (USD bn) 176 207 247 272 264 305 345 376 407 435
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) 4.6 5.1 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.4 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. in %) 4.6 3.2 1.7 2.7 -1.1 4.9 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.3
Fixed Investment (ann. variation in %) 10.5 3.9 1.5 1.2 -9.0 10.1 6.8 6.8 8.9 8.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 9.1 7.3 8.2 5.3 -5.1 15.4 7.7 7.6 6.7 6.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -0.6 1.1 -1.7 -1.1 -4.4 -3.0 -2.9 -2.7 -1.7 -1.6
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) 4.5 4.7 2.2 5.4 -0.9 3.3 3.1 2.8 3.0 2.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %) 9.2 7.0 3.3 12.4 -3.8 - - - - -
1-day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 4.00 5.00 3.25 2.75 1.25 2.01 2.75 3.17 3.84 3.98
Stock Market (SET variation in %) 6.1 -4.7 26.2 -47.6 63.2 - - - - -
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, eop) 41.2 36.2 33.9 35.1 33.5 30.5 30.1 29.8 30.1 30.3
Exchange Rate (THB per USD, average) 40.3 37.9 34.6 33.4 34.3 32.0 30.3 30.0 30.0 30.2
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -4.3 1.1 6.4 0.6 7.7 3.6 2.7 3.2 2.5 2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -7.6 2.3 15.7 1.6 20.3 10.9 9.2 11.9 10.3 9.9
Trade Balance (USD bn) -8.3 1.0 11.6 0.2 19.4 10.0 7.5 13.3 20.4 21.1
Exports (USD bn) 109 128 150 175 151 184 201 226 253 275
Imports (USD bn) 118 127 138 175 131 174 193 213 232 253
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. in %) -2.7 5.9 12.0 9.1 6.5 3.5 2.6 4.0 5.0 5.6
Inflation (CPI, annual average variation in %) -2.2 1.9 3.8 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0
1-day Repurchase Rate (%, eop) 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.75 2.01 2.16 2.32 2.43 2.75
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 30.9 29.1 31.1 33.0 23.4 15.9 14.2 13.1 8.7 -
Inflation (CPI, mom variation in %) -0.09 0.57 0.56 0.19 0.56 0.19 0.28 0.09 0.28 -0.09

10 20
Thailand ANZ 7.4 4.2
Asia (ex Japan)
5 World Capital Economics 8.0 4.0
CIMB Thai Bank 7.8 4.5
10
0 Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 8.4 5.4
-5
0 DBS Bank 9.0 4.0
-10 Goldman Sachs 7.3 4.2
Thailand
World
-15 -10 ING 7.3 5.2
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 8.5 5.0
Kasikorn Research Center 7.0 4.0
Ktzmico 7.5 5.5
10 8
Maximum
Phatra Securities 6.7 3.5
Consensus Standard Chartered Bank 6.3 4.0
8 Minimum TISCO Securities 7.4 3.5
6
UBS 7.7 4.0
4 Summary
4
Minimum 4.6 3.0
Maximum 9.0 5.5
2 Median 7.6 4.3
2 Maximum Consensus 7.4 4.4
Consensus
Minimum
History
0 0 30 days ago 7.2 4.4
90 days ago 6.0 4.4
Central Bank (July 2010) 6.5-7.5 3.0-5.0
10 25
IMF (Oct. 2010) 7.5 4.0
ADB (Sep. 2010) 7.0 4.5
5
0
0
-5
-25 Notes and sources
-10
Thailand Thailand
General:
-15 -50
sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT). See below for details.
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
1 GDP, annual variation in %.

2011 2011 5 Private consumption, annual variation in %.
10 6 Gross fixed investment, annual variation in %.
4
18 months.
8 last 18 months.
9 Industrial production, annual variation in %.
3 10 Unemployment, % of active population.
11 Balance of central government, % of GDP.
6
last 18 months.
2 4 months.
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 14 Balance of the central government, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts


Consumption Investment Industry Fiscal Balance
% variation % variation % variation % of GDP
ANZ - - - - - - - -
Capital Economics 5.0 3.5 12.0 6.0 - - -5.0 -4.0
CIMB Thai Bank 4.4 3.8 - - - - - -
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 5.6 5.0 5.3 10.0 - - -1.3 -1.1
Credit Suisse - - - - - - -4.5 -3.6
Daiwa Capital Markets 7.7 4.5 9.2 4.1 - - -4.0 -3.4
DBS Bank 5.2 3.8 12.6 8.4 - - -3.0 -2.5
Deutsche Bank 4.6 2.8 10.7 4.0 13.0 6.0 -1.1 -0.6
Goldman Sachs - - - - 5.9 6.6 -1.0 -3.0
HSBC 5.0 3.6 10.1 4.6 18.3 7.8 -1.6 -1.2
ING - - - - - - -4.2 -3.7
JPMorgan - - - - 20.1 8.1 -2.5 -3.0
Kasikorn Research Center 3.7 3.3 10.2 8.3 13.0 6.0 -3.6 -3.6
Ktzmico 5.3 4.4 12.4 10.2 23.0 14.0 -3.0 -3.8
Morgan Stanley - - 6.0 7.2 - - -3.8 -
Phatra Securities 3.7 3.7 9.9 8.8 14.5 5.5 -1.1 -3.5
TISCO Securities 3.5 4.6 12.1 6.1 - - -4.2 -3.0
UBS 5.1 4.6 10.5 4.3 - - -3.5 -3.5
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 3.5 2.8 5.3 4.0 5.9 5.5 -5.0 -4.0
Maximum 7.7 5.0 12.6 10.2 23.0 14.0 -1.0 -0.6
Median 5.0 3.8 10.3 6.7 14.5 6.6 -3.2 -3.4
Consensus 4.9 4.0 10.1 6.8 15.4 7.7 -3.0 -2.9
History
30 days ago 4.5 3.9 9.3 6.7 15.6 7.9 -3.2 -3.1
60 days ago 3.8 3.7 8.5 6.5 13.9 8.0 -3.6 -3.3
90 days ago 3.4 3.7 7.5 6.3 10.9 6.7 -3.8 -3.4

20 5 4
Thailand
Asia (ex Japan)
4
10 0
3
2
0 -4
1 Thailand
Thailand Asia (ex Japan)
World
Asia (ex Japan)
-10 0 -8
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
16 4 -2
2010 2010
2011 2011
3 -3
12
2 -4
8
1 -5
2010
2011
4 0 -6

12 12
Thailand Thailand
ANZ 3.5 3.1
8
CIMB Thai Bank 3.4 2.5
6
4
0 DBS Bank 3.0 2.8
HSBC 3.5 3.6
-4 -6 ING 3.2 2.0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11 JPMorgan 2.7 1.3
Kasikorn Research Center 3.4 3.3
Ktzmico 3.3 3.0
8 5
Maximum Maximum Phatra Securities 3.5 3.0
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum Standard Chartered Bank 3.2 3.7
6 4
TISCO Securities 3.5 3.4
UBS 3.3 2.3
4 3 Summary
Minimum 2.4 1.3
Maximum 3.7 4.0
2 2 Median 3.4 3.3
Consensus 3.3 3.1
History
0 1 30 days ago 3.3 3.0
90 days ago 3.3 3.0
19 | Core and Producer Prices | % var. 20 | Money | % variation
Central Bank (July 2010) 2.5-3.8 2.5-4.5
15 40
IMF (Oct. 2010) 3.0 2.8
Core Price Index
PPI
ADB (Sep. 2010) 3.2 3.0
30
10
20
5
10
0
0
-5 -10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 Notes and sources
General:
21 | 10-Year Bond Yield | in % 22 | Stock Market | SET Index Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
6 1,000 monetary sector data are from the Bureau of Trade and Economics (BTE)
and the Bank of Thailand (BoT). See below for details. Forecasts based
5 800 15 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index (CPI) in

%. Source: BTE.
4 600
(CPI) in %. Source: BTE.
19 Core and producer price indices, annual variation in % (eop). 2004-
3 400 2009 Source: BTE.
20 Money, annual variation of M1 in %. 1995-2009 Source: BoT.
21 10-Year Bond Yield. January 2005 until the end of previous month.
2 200 Source: BoT.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan
22 Monthly index levels, SET Index. January 2000 until end of previous
month. Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand.

15 6
% THB per USD
ANZ 2.00 3.00 32.5 31.0
10 4
CIMB Thai Bank 1.75 3.00 30.5 30.5
Citigroup Global Markets Inc. 2.75 3.75 30.4 29.8
Credit Suisse 2.00 3.00 31.8 31.0
5 2
DBS Bank 2.25 3.00 32.2 31.2
Deutsche Bank 2.25 3.00 29.7 31.0
Goldman Sachs 2.00 2.75 30.0 29.3
0 0
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
HSBC 2.00 2.00 30.2 28.6
ING 2.00 2.50 29.8 29.5
JPMorgan 2.00 2.00 30.3 30.8
25 | Int. Rate 2010 | evolution of fcst 26 | Int. Rate 2011 | evolution of fcst Kasikorn Research Center 1.75 2.50 29.0 28.0
4 5 Ktzmico - - 30.8 31.5
Maximum
Maximum Consensus Morgan Stanley - - 32.3 30.7
Consensus Minimum
Minimum
Phatra Securities 1.75 2.75 31.5 32.5
3 4 Standard Chartered Bank 2.00 2.50 29.5 29.5
TISCO Securities 2.00 3.00 29.9 29.0
UBS 1.75 2.25 30.0 30.0
Summary
Minimum 1.75 2.00 29.0 28.0
1 2 Maximum 2.75 3.75 32.5 32.5
Median 2.00 2.88 30.2 30.0
Consensus 2.01 2.75 30.5 30.1
0 1 History
30 days ago 2.06 2.65 31.4 30.9
60 days ago 2.00 2.60 31.8 31.3
27 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 28 | Exchange Rate | THB per USD 90 days ago 1.88 2.51 32.0 31.3
50 36
40 34
30 32
20 30
1995 2000 2005 2010 Q1 07 Q1 08 Q1 09 Q1 10 Q1 11
Notes and sources
General:
29 | THB/USD 2010 | evolution of fcst 30 | THB/USD 2011 | evolution of forecasts Long-term chart period from 1995 to 2014 unless otherwise stated. All
monetary and external sector data are from the Bank of Thailand (BoT).
40 40 Forecasts based on FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.
Maximum Maximum
Consensus Consensus
Minimum Minimum 23 Interest rate, 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).
24 Quarterly interest rate, 1-Day Repurchase Rate in % (eop).
35 35
27 Exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).
28 Quarterly exchange rate, THB per USD (eop).
30 30 30 Exchange rate, evolution of 2011 forecast during the last 18 months.
31 Current account balance as % of GDP.
32 Trade balance, imports and exports, in USD bn.
33 International reserves, months of imports.
34 Current account in USD bn., evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecast
Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep 35 Exports, annual variation in %.
36 External debt as % of GDP.


ANZ - - - - - - - - - -
CIMB Thai Bank 9.5 7.0 10.7 7.1 196 230 185 223 - -
Credit Suisse 9.0 6.4 10.5 9.4 178 193 167 184 149 159
DBS Bank 15.0 10.0 14.0 8.0 191 208 177 200 - -
Deutsche Bank 9.7 5.9 9.0 4.5 189 204 180 200 157 169
Goldman Sachs 10.7 10.8 9.7 10.4 174 186 165 176 159 180
HSBC 12.3 18.5 11.5 16.3 184 201 173 185 158 187
ING 9.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 161 181 155 178 - -
JPMorgan - - - - - - - - 146 151
Kasikorn Research Center 9.8 6.9 10.4 5.9 188 203 177 197 - -
Ktzmico - - 7.0 2.7 171 194 164 191 - -
Morgan Stanley 17.2 14.0 7.8 7.1 - - - - - -
Phatra Securities 12.0 7.1 11.4 5.3 186 200 174 195 170 180
TISCO Securities 11.4 9.9 11.8 5.9 189 203 177 197 - -
UBS 9.4 14.1 10.5 13.8 194 195 183 181 153 169
United Overseas Bank - - - - - - - - - -
Summary
Minimum 5.6 3.1 6.0 2.4 161 181 155 176 146 151
Maximum 17.2 18.5 14.0 16.3 196 230 185 223 171 198
Median 9.8 7.1 10.5 7.1 188 202 177 196 158 169
Consensus 10.9 9.2 10.0 7.5 184 201 174 193 158 173
History
30 days ago 12.5 10.7 10.1 7.5 182 198 172 191 153 166
60 days ago 13.1 11.4 10.7 8.4 181 198 170 189 154 167
90 days ago 12.2 10.2 10.2 8.3 179 197 169 188 154 165
20 300 20
Trade Balance
Thailand Thailand
Exports
Imports
200
10 15
100
0 10
0
-10 -100 5
1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010 1995 2000 2005 2010
14 30 100
2010
2011
15 75
10
0 50
6
-15 25
Thailand Thailand
2 -30 0

Fact Sheet
General Data Thailand in the Region
Official name: Kingdom of Thailand Population | %-share in Asia GDP | %-share in Asia
Capital: Bangkok (5.7 m) Thailand
Other cities: Samut Prakan (0.4 m) 2% Thailand
3% Other
Other
9% 23%
Area (km2): 514,000
Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 66.0 7% Indonesia
6%
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.) 128 China
44%
India
Language: Thai, English India China
38% 53%

100%
2004 2009
8.9
Internet Users (per 100 inhabitants): 25.8 9.6
3.3 3.5
Agriculture, hunting,
forestry, fishing
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 1.5 75%
75%
Electricity, Gas and
38.7 39.0 Water Supply
Energy (2007) 50%
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 1,910 Manufacturing
50%
14.0 13.7
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 135 25%
Household Goods
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 345 34.4 34.8 0%
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 947 Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
Chief Ports: Bangkok, Laem Chabang EU-27
USA
EU-27
13% 8%
USA 6%
Japan
11% Japan
11%
19%
Political Data
Prime Minister: Abhisit Vejjajiva Exports China Other Imports

15% 35%
Last elections: 23 December 2007 Other China
26%
Next elections: December 2011 12%
Central Bank Governor: Tarisa Watanagase

Other Other
Asia Asia
24% 20%

Moody’s: Baa1 Negative
S&P: BBB+ Negative
Fitch Ratings: BBB Stable
Resource based
products 12%
Raw Materials
and
Other: intermediate
Labour
intensive prod. 40% goods: 31%
Strengths Weaknesses Exports 11% Imports
• Sound economic policy • Weak communications and Other
manufactured prod.
Capital goods
information technology 6%
21%
• Diversified trade structure High Tech prod.

Agricultural prod
Capital
and mining.
• Profund political divisions 61%
9% Consumer goods:
• Competitive tourism industry goods: 8% 21%
• Financial system vulnerability Other 1%

FOCUSECONOMICS Vietnam November 2010
Vietnam
Vietnam
Outlook improves
• Industrial output expanded 15.1% annually in September, supported
by healthy domestic demand and strong exports. Meanwhile, despite
recent drops in unofficial exchange rate rates, Governor Nguyen Van
Giau has stated that the State Bank does not plan further exchange
rate adjustments following on August’s devaluation.
2000-04 2005-09 2010-14 • Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate the economy to grow 6.6%
Population (million): 79.8 85.2 90.8 this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
GDP (USD bn): 37 74 131
For 2011, the panel expects economic growth to accelerate to 6.9%.
GDP per capita (USD): 460 861 1,435
GDP growth (%): 7.2 7.3 6.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP): -2.4 -2.0 -4.1 • Inflation rose from 8.9% in September to 9.7% in October. Panellists
Inflation (%): 2.6 10.8 7.5
Current Account (% of GDP): -0.6 -6.1 -6.9
expect inflation to average 9.1% this year, which is down 0.5 percentage
External Debt (% of GDP): 39.6 32.4 26.1 points from last month’s projection. In 2011, the panel expects inflation
to moderate to 8.2%.
Joan Enric Domene

Economist
1 | GDP | % variation 2 | Fiscal Balance | % of GDP 3 | Inflation | in %

12 3 30
0 20
6
-3 10
0
-6 0
Vietnam Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) Asia (ex Japan) Vietnam
World World Asia (ex Japan)
-6 -9 -10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
4 | GDP | evolution of forecasts 5 | Fiscal Balance | evolution of fcst 6 | Inflation | evolution of forecasts
8 -2 12
2010
2011
7 -4 10
6 -6 8
2010 2010
2011 2011
5 -8 6
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast | 109


Annual Data 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Real Sector
GDP per capita (USD) 440 489 554 637 724 836 1,050 1,056 1,139 1,244
GDP (USD bn) 35 40 45 53 61 71 91 92 101 112
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 7.1 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 6.2 5.3 6.6 6.9
Private Consumption (ann. variation in %) 7.6 8.0 7.1 7.3 8.3 10.8 9.3 3.7 7.0 7.1
Fixed Investment (annual variation in %) 12.9 11.9 10.4 9.8 9.9 24.2 3.8 8.7 7.9 7.5
Manufacturing (annual variation in %) 14.8 16.8 16.6 17.1 16.8 16.7 13.9 7.6 12.8 12.4
Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %) 4.0 3.0 9.5 8.4 6.6 12.6 19.9 5.8 - -
Base Rate (%, eop) 6.45 6.62 7.50 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.50 8.00 8.61 9.30
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 15,403 15,646 15,777 15,916 16,055 16,020 16,997 18,475 19,537 20,041
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, average) 15,280 15,510 15,736 15,859 15,994 16,077 16,313 17,832 19,006 19,789
External Sector
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) -1.7 -4.9 -2.1 -1.1 -0.3 -9.8 -11.8 -7.7 -8.3 -7.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn) -0.6 -1.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 -7.0 -10.7 -7.2 -8.3 -7.9
Exports (USD bn) 16.7 20.1 26.5 32.4 39.8 48.6 62.7 56.6 69.5 81.8
Imports (USD bn) 19.7 25.3 32.0 36.8 44.9 62.8 80.7 68.8 82.2 94.9
Exports (annual variation in %) 11.2 20.6 31.4 22.5 22.7 21.9 29.1 -9.7 21.3 17.7
Imports (annual variation in %) 21.8 27.9 26.6 15.0 22.1 39.8 28.6 -14.7 21.3 15.5
International Reserves (USD bn) 4.1 6.4 7.2 9.3 13.6 23.7 24.2 16.8 15.7 19.3
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. variation in %) 6.0 6.9 5.8 6.2 6.5 7.2 6.8 6.9 7.5 8.0
Exchange Rate (VND per USD, eop) 17,481 18,475 18,544 18,544 18,932 19,537 19,835 19,948 20,035 20,041
7 | Exchange Rate | VND per USD 8 | Current Account | % of GDP

22,000 10
5
20,000
18,000
-5
16,000
-10
Vietnam
Asia (ex Japan) Notes and sources
14,000 -15 General:
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Long-term chart period from 2000 to 2011 unless otherwise stated.
All data are from General Statistics Office of Vietnam (GSO, Tong
Cuc Thong Ke), the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) and the Minis-
try of Finance. See below for details. Forecasts based on
Focuseconomics Consensus Forecast.
9 | VND/USD | evolution of fcst 10 | Current Account | evol. of fcst
21,000 -2 1 GDP, annual variation in %. Source: GSO.

2010 2 Balance of non-financial public sector, % of GDP. Source: Min-
2011 istry of Finance.
3 Inflation, annual average variation in consumer price index
20,000 -4 (CPI) in %. Source: GSO.
4 GDP, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last 18
months.
19,000 -6 5 Balance of non-financial public sector, evolution of 2010 and
2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.
6 Inflation, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during the last
18 months.
18,000 -8 7 Exchange rate, VND per USD (eop). Source: SBV.
2010
2011
8 Current account balance as % of GDP. Source: GSO.
9 Exchange rate, evolution of 2010 and 2011 forecasts during
17,000 -10
the last 18 months.
10 Current account balance in USD billion, evolution of 2010
and 2011 forecasts during the last 18 months.

Fact Sheet
General Data Vietnam in the Region

Official name: Socialist Republic
Population | %-share in Latin America GDP | %-share in Latin America
of Vietnam
Capital: Ha Noi (3.2 m) Vietnam Malaysia Vietnam
3%
Other cities: Ho Chi Minh City (6.2 m) 1% 1% Other
Other 23%
Haiphong (1.8 m) 8% Malaysia
Indonesia 2%
Area (km2): 331,212 7% Indonesia
Population (million, 2009 est.): 88.6 6%
China
Population density (per km2, 2009 est.): 268 43%
Population growth rate (%, 2009 est.): 1.2 India
15%
Life expectancy (years, 2009 est.): 71.7
53%
Language: Vietnamese 38%


100%
2004 2009
Trade
75%
Broadband Subscribers (per 100 inhabitants): 3.0
8.6 9.2 Construction
75%
50%
Energy (2007) 21.8
24.9 Manufacturing
Primary Energy Production (trillion Btu): 2,183 25%
50% 6.2
Mining & quarrying
Electricity Generation (billion kW-h): 66.8 20.4 17.0 0%

Agriculture, forestry,
fishery
Oil Supply (thousand bpd): 351 -25%
26.7 27.7
Oil Consumption (thousand bpd): 258 Other 2003 2005 2007 2009
CO2 Emmissions (million metric tons): 80.8 0% Investment Net exports
Chief Ports: Da Nang, Hai Phong EU-27
USA USA 6% Japan
21% EU-27 4% 10%
18%
Other
Political Data 21%
China
Prim e Minister: Nguyen Minh Triet Exports Imports 25%
Last elections: 24 July 2007 Other
Japan
24%
14%
Next elections: June 2011
Governor of State Bank: Nguyen Van Giau China
Other 8% Other
Asia Asia
15% 34%

Moody’s: Ba3 Negative
Machinery,
S&P: BB Negative
Equipment,
Fitch Ratings: B+ Stable Ag. & Tools &
Fish. Spare
Products Parts
Other 25% 17%
36%
Petroleum
Strengths Weaknesses Exports Other
Imports 14%
51%
• Diversified exports • Large public sector
Textiles &
Textiles &
Other
• Net exporter of crude oil • Insufficient infrastructure Footwear
22%
Fabrics
10%
Crude Oil Steel
17% 8%
• Low cost and productive work • Weak financial system
force

FOCUSECONOMICS November 2010
Notes and Statements
PUBLICATION NOTE
Consensus forecasts are mean averages of projections of economic forecasters surveyed by

FocusEconomics for our monthly publication. Quarterly averages may not correspond to the annual
figures due to different forecast panels.
The GDP-weighted averages for the regional aggregates refer to economies surveyed by
FocusEconomics on a monthly basis, and include the following countries:
Asia (12 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Asia ex-Japan (11 countries): China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam.
Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 6 countries): Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. The remaining four Asean members (Brunei, Burma (Myanmar),
Cambodia and Laos) are not included in the calculation of the regional average.
NIEs (Newly Industrialized Economies, 4 countries): Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.
Weights are based on market exchange rates and reflect the latest forecasts on GDP growth, infla-
tion and exchange rates.
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FOCUSECONOMICS

Hong Kong ............................... 2 6

Vietnam ................................. 109

Notes ....................................... 112

Order Form ............................. 113

Arne Pohlman Armando Ciccarelli Marcos Felipe Casarin

Ángel Talavera Gerardo Morán Joan Enric Domene

Keith Catlin Ricardo Aceves

© FocusEconomics 2010 Gran Via 657 E-08010 Barcelona, Spain

Forecast Summary | Major Economies and Asia

Real GDP, annual variation in % Consumer Prices, variation in %

2008 2009 2010 2011 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Current Account, % of GDP

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 2

• Consensus Forecast panellists have raised their estimate for ex-Japan

Forecast Changes over last Month

Change in 2010 GDP Growth Forecast Change in 2010 Inflation Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 3

On 18 October, state media reported that Vice-President Xi Jinping was selected

Robust domestic demand due to improving labour market conditions continues to

Wholesale price inflation accelerated a notch to 8.6% in September, thus ending

Inflation decelerated to 1.8% in September, finally breaking the upward trend in

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 4

Economic growth is likely to remain solid, as rising payrolls should buttress

Industrial manufacturing increased 8.7% in August, returning to single-digit growth

Industrial output expanded 15.1% annually in September, supported by healthy

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 5

Gross Domestic Product, annual variation in % GDP Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 4.6 -1.7 7.1 5.2 5.7 5.6 5.5 Asean

GDP per capita, USD GDP per capita, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 7,992 6,763 7,589 8,442 9,110 9,899 10,977 Malaysia

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 6

Private Consumption, annual variation in % Private Consumption Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

Malaysia 8.5 0.8 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.7 6.7 Malaysia

Investment, annual variation in % Investment Growth, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China

Malaysia 0.8 -5.5 8.5 6.6 5.9 6.8 7.4 Singapore

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 7

Unemployment, % of active population Unemployment, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Philippines

Indonesia 8.1 7.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.6 Vietnam

Fiscal Balance, % of GDP Fiscal Balance, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hong Kong

Malaysia -4.8 -7.0 -5.4 -4.6 -3.9 -3.6 -3.4 China

0 Note: Fiscal balance in % of GDP.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 8

Inflation, annual average variation of consumer prices in % Inflation, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Interest Rate, % Interest Rate, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Malaysia 3.3 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.8 Asean

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 9

Nominal Depreciation vs. USD, in % Depreciation versus USD, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Vietnam

Current Account Balance, % of GDP Current Account Balance, 2010

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Singapore

Malaysia 17.5 16.7 13.5 12.1 10.7 11.1 10.6 Asean

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Asia | 10

Export Growth, annual variation in % Export Growth, 2010