Democratic and military Regimes compared in relation to Economic Growth and Social

Sector Development -Trends in Pakistan

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Pakistan’s political environmentscenario has a peculiarunique history of unstable government

systems and frequent dethroning of democratic governments. Moreover, the country has
witnessed and its replacement of democratic governments by military rulers imposing martial
law so much as that almost half of the70 years of Pakistan have passed under martial law and
authoritarian forms of government. Political instability did not lead to grow the seeds of
democracy. Democracy as a political system in Pakistan has been an onerous goal since 1947.
The term democracy comes from the Greek language which means “rule by the simple people”.
Democracy is the government of the people, by the people and for the people.

Moreover, Democracy implies that the public must take the responsibility for choosing his
representatives, Rulers and for the maintenance of his own rights against the possible and
probable encroachments of the government which he has sanctioned to act for him in public
matters (Ezra pound, ABC of Economics, 1933).

While Dictatorship is a form of government in which a single person or a very small number of
people hold all the power to rule the country. Dictatorships usually are established by force and
violence, and once a dictatorship takes place the nation’s citizens are bound to not interfere in the
affairs of country. In Pakistan we experienced military dictatorships. Military coup came out and
took the rein of the country by power.

In Pakistan half of the total period since its birth, Governments has ruled by Dictatorships.
Therefore in Pakistan, democratic and military coup governments always play an impact on
economic growth and economic development. Military coups in Pakistan began in 1958 and
there have been three successful attempts. There have also been some unsuccessful attempts
since 1951. Since its creation in 1947, Pakistan has spent several decades under military rule
1958 – 1971, 1977 – 1988, 1999 – 2008. Military governments postulated that their the economic
performance was better as compared to democratic ruling. Therefore there is a need of study to
measure the performances of democratic and non democratic ruler in achieving economic growth
and economic development.

Economic growth is an increase in the capacity of an economy to produce goods and services,
compared from one period of time to another. It can be measured by an increase in a country's
total output GDP (gross domestic product) or GNP (gross national product). It implies the yearly
increase in the country’s GDP or GNP, in percentage terms or increase in per capita income. It
considers rise in per-capita national product, over a period, i.e. the growth rate of increase in total
output, must be greater than the population growth rate. However, Economic development can be
asserted as an increase in a country's wealth and standard of living. It is the process in which an
economy grows and becomes advances with social conditions improvement. It refers to
improvement in a variety of indicators such as literacy rates, life expectancy and poverty rates.

However, bythe social sector development we do mean the spending on health, education, and
improvement in employment conditions of the country. These have never been better, though
economic growth figures keep fluctuating and it is yet to be decided if any types of government
have special implications on it.

Very limited number of studies have been carried out comparing the Numbers of research has
done to compare the performance of Democratic and military coup. However, it has not yet
attempted to get the performance of these two regimes with advance research techniques.

According to a study of Uzma.B and Sofia.B investigated the performance of democratic and
military regimes through OLS analysis from 1958 to 2013. They found that military performance
was better in terms of GDP, Inflation while democracy performed better in per capita income.
However, FDI and unemployment were same under both regimes.

Parmar V., and Meenai Y., studied and compared of key economic indicators of Pakistani
economy under democratic (1989 to 1999) and military regime (2000 to 2005). They found the
many macroeconomic indicators were significantly better in democratic government as
compared to military regimes and concluded that there is a false claim that military regimes
performed better then democratic governments in terms of overall economic growth of the
country.

There is still confusion that which government had performed well and which had not. To
remove this confusion and make clear the air there is a need of study to investigate the
performances of both regimes. In this study we will examine two military coups government Zia
ul Haq and Perviz Musharf. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq was a military dictator and four-Star general
who served as the 6th president of Pakistan after declaring martial law in 1977. He ruled from
1978 until  his death in 1988 and remains country’s longest-serving head of the state Ayub khan.
Moreover, Perviz Musharf successfully imposed martial law in 1999. He overthrew the
democratic government of Main Mohammad Nawaz Sharif through power by military. He ruled
the state from 1999 to 2008.

TIn this study we will strives to utilisese optimal techniques to obtain the empirical authentic
result. We will use some macroeconomic variables such, GDP, GDP Per capita, foreign direct
investment, export, import, unemployment, education, health, from the years 1978 to 2018.

1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Since independence, Pakistan has experienced both democratic and military regimes. Military
coup claimed that performance of economy was better and stable in their regimes, whereas
democratic are used to criticize the interference of military. Due to political instability, military
coup always attempted to take the rein of the country and strive to make stable the country’s
situation Therefore in Pakistan half of the total period since its birth the military governments
has ruled. In 2013 a successfully democratic government completed his five year tenure and
transferred the government to another elected political party. It was a first1st in Pakistan history
that a political government completed his five years period. There is a need of study to compare
the performances of non democratic and military coup. In this study, we will attempt to studies
the performances of these two empirically and do comparison that which will be beneficial for
the nations and Nations should be aware from the performance of these two regimes.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The objective of the study is to find out the impact of democratic and non democratic
government on economic growth and economic development of Pakistan. We will investigate the
economic performances of both two regimes on the basis of various macroeconomic indicators.

1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS

There are two research questions.

(1) What has beenwill be the impact of democratic and non democratic government in
achieving economic growth and social sector development?

(2) Which period of governments registered more benefits to the Pakistani nation in terms of
social services delivery?

1.5 HYPOTHESIS

1. H1: There is significant difference in the GDP during the democracy and non-
democracy.
2. H2: There is significant difference in the GDP Per Capita during the democracy and
non-democracy.
3. H3: There is significant difference in Export during the democracy and non-democracy.
4. H4: there is significant difference in export during the democracy and non democracy.
5. H5: there is significant difference in FDI during the democracy and non democracy.
6. H6: There is significant difference in Health Expenditure during the democracy and
Non democracy.
7. H7: There is significant difference in Primary school enrollment during the democracy
And non-democracy
 8. H8: There is significant difference in Secondary school enrollment during the
democracy And non-democracy
9. H9: There is significant difference in College school enrollment during the democracy
and non democracy.
10. H10: there is significant difference in unemployment during democratic and non
democracy

2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

2.1 DESCRIPTION OF DATA

To investigate the economic development and economic growth of Pakistan in the democratic
and dictatorship regimes, that for the period for 1977-2018 is used. The macroeconomics
variables involved for the investigations for measuring the economic performances fo Pakistan
are gdp, import, export, fdi, inflation, health, unemployment, education, and per capita income
and foregin debt.

2.2 DATA COLLECTION

For the proposed study that is comparison economic growth and economic development in
democratic and non democratic regimes secondary data will be used. The relevant literature from
secondary source will be reviewed to collect information and to expand knowledge on subject
matter, publications journal and internet will be used in order to understand the concept causes
and impacts on economic development.

The data for this research will be used secondary and taken from most authentic sources such as
The bureau of statistics, world bank, IMF and economy survey of Pakistan.

2.3 DATA ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUE

We will use time series data. In time series data, we 1st check stationarity and then decission will
be taken to use which econometrics technique and statistical technique.

2.4 Proposed variables

We will utilize macroeconomic variables such GDP, GDP Per Capita, Export, Import, FDI
Unemployment, Education, and Health to investigate the economic growth and social sector
development in Democratic and non democratic regime

2.5 ECONOMETRIC MODEL

 3. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

Political instability in Pakistan divides the polictical sturcture in Pakistan in two types of
government 1st is Democratic government and 2nd one is military coup ruling. Democratic
government crittizied the dictatorship and postulated that their performances was better as
compared to military coup ruling. In addition, military coup ruling defame democratic
government about their corruption charges and postulated that they performed superb in
achieving economic growth and economic development. There is need to know about the
performances of these two type political structure in achieving economic growth and economic
development. So the Nations should be awared about Military and democratic regimes and their
performances. They should know how they ruled them. However, This study is an attempt to
seek out empirically the Economic performances of democratic and non democratic government.
It will enlighten the factors responsible for economic growth and economic development. This
study will enrich public to know empirical about their military and democratic government. This
paper is an attempt to assess whether the democratic regimes performed better or No democratic
regimes? This study will show what this country really needs rather than what it wants or
demands and which type of government is better for country and nation.

Scheme of the study:

Scheme of the study will be as fallow;

 Chapter 1st will be the introduction and background of the study

 Chapter 2nd will the literature review
 Chapter 3rd will be methodology
 Chapter 4th will estimation
 Chapter 5th will be conclusion, policy recommendation and references
.
REFERENCES

1. Nawaz, A. (2013). External Debts: A comparative study of Pakistan in democratic and

military regimes. Journal of Business strategies, 7(1)

2. Ishrat Hussain, Pakistan, the Economy of an elitist state, Oxford, Karachi (1996

3. Zaidi S.A., issues in Pakistan’s Economy, Oxford University press (1999)

4. Zaidi S.A., Issues in Pakistan’s Economy, Oxford University Press (2005)

5. Khan, S (2012) the military and economic development in Pakistan. Political Economy
Research Institute, University of Massachusetts working Paper series, 291.

6. Ishrat Husain, Pakistan: the economy of an Elitist state, 353.

7. Mahmood, K., Azid, T., and Siddiqui, a.M. (2010). Democracy and economic growth in
Pakistan research journal of international studies – issue 15

8. Shaukat Aziz, Economy likely to grow by 8%, Daily Dawn, (2005)

9. Iqbal, Zafar, article, Daily Dawn, August 24 (2005)