British Columbia

Provincial Vote Intentions

2nd October 2020
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between September 26th-29th,
2020 among a sample of 1041 adults, 18 years of age
or older, living in British Columbia. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey
is intended to represent the voting population of
British Columbia.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by Canada 338.
The sampling frame was derived from both a
national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commerically available
sources and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the
country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.04% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this report)
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 All Voters
If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?

15.2%

2.8%
1.4%
39.1%

12.9% All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

All Voters
28.5%

3.4%
1.9%
NDP 15.2%
BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

15.9% Another Party Undecided

2.8%
1.4%
39.1%

45.2%

12.9% All Voters

Decided and Leaning Voters

33.7%

28.5%

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives

NDP BC Liberals Greens BC Conservatives
Another Party Undecided
Another Party
Breakout Tables
If the provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
NDP, Horgan 39.1% 33.8% 44.3% 37.9% 42.6% 38.5% 37.6% 38.3% 52.6% 32.5%
Liberal, Wilkinson 28.5% 33.7% 23.5% 25.4% 24.6% 29.6% 35.6% 27.2% 23.8% 33.8%
Green, Fursteneau 12.9% 14% 11.8% 16% 12.5% 11.9% 10.6% 13.6% 12.3% 11.9%
Conservative, Bolin 1.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.3% - - 4.7%
Another Party 2.8% 4% 1.7% 5.3% 2.5% 2.3% 0.6% 2.3% 0.4% 5.2%
Undecided 15.2% 12.9% 17.5% 14.7% 16% 15.8% 14.3% 18.6% 10.8% 11.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1041 562 479 163 247 333 298 557 185 299
Weighted Frequency 1041 512 528 280 253 287 220 548 184 309

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
NDP, Horgan 41.6% 36.1% 47% 41.6% 43.7% 41% 40% 41.9% 54.7% 33.4%
Liberal, Wilkinson 31.1% 36.3% 26.1% 28.4% 28% 31.9% 37.1% 30.8% 25.5% 35%
Green, Fursteneau 14.7% 15.2% 14.2% 19.2% 13.7% 13.9% 11.2% 15.7% 13.6% 13.6%
Conservative, Bolin 1.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2% - - 5.8%
Another Party 3.2% 4.5% 2% 5.9% 2.8% 2.6% 1% 2.7% 1.4% 5.2%
Undecided 7.6% 5.8% 9.4% 4.2% 9.6% 8.4% 8.7% 8.8% 4.9% 7.1%
Unweighted Frequency 1041 562 479 163 247 333 298 557 185 299
Weighted Frequency 1041 512 528 280 253 287 220 548 184 309

(Decided And Leaning Voters)

All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Vancouver CMA Vancouver Island BC Interior
NDP, Horgan 45.2% 38.4% 51.7% 43.4% 48.4% 44.8% 44% 46.1% 57.5% 36.1%
Liberal, Wilkinson 33.7% 38.6% 29% 29.7% 31% 34.8% 40.4% 33.9% 26.7% 37.6%
Green, Fursteneau 15.9% 16.1% 15.6% 20.2% 15.1% 15.1% 12.3% 17.1% 14.4% 14.6%
Conservative, Bolin 1.9% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% - - 6.2%
Another Party 3.4% 4.7% 2.2% 6.1% 3.1% 2.8% 1.1% 2.9% 1.4% 5.5%
Unweighted Frequency 958 527 431 156 224 305 273 506 176 276
Weighted Frequency 958 472 486 258 233 264 202 504 169 284
Questionnaire
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
The British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan
The British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson
The Green Party of British Columbia led by Sonia Furstenau
The British Columbia Conservative Party led by Trevor Bolin
Another Party
Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards? (only asked of those who said they were
undecided)
The British Columbia New Democratic Party led by John Horgan
The British Columbia Liberal Party led by Andrew Wilkinson
The Green Party of British Columbia led by Sonia Furstenau
The British Columbia Conservative Party led by Trevor Bolin
Another Party
Undecided

What is your gender?

Male
Female

What is your age group?

18 to 34 years of age
35 to 49 years of age
50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 26th-29th,
2020, among a sample of 1041 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in British Columbia. The
survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of
British Columbia.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by Canada 338.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of British Columbia. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of
making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in British Columbia. The population parameters used for weighting are
age, gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.04% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.