Canada

Federal Vote Intentions

Canadians’ attitudes about next
election, federal provincial jurisdiction,
and independence of Members of
Parliament
28th September 2020
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of
a survey conducted between September 21st-24th,
2020 among a sample of 1307 adults, 18 years
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey
is intended to represent the voting population of
Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics.
The sampling frame was derived from both a
national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commerically available
sources and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the
country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.7% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized
as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market
research firms. Since our founding, we have been
providing actionable and data-driven insights to
our clients to help them make their most important
evidence-based strategic decisions.
Mainstreet has an impressive track record in
accurately forecasting election results in Canada and
the United States and has become a trusted source
for comprehensive market research, analysis and
advice. Our insights are found in major media outlets
across the country.
Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member
of MRIA, WAPOR and AAPOR and exceeds all
Canadian and international standards for market
research and public opinion research.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President and CEO
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
Summary of Findings
• The Liberals had seen their support over the past month, likely due to the fallout
from the WE scandal.
• Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have
37.1% support (-6.1% since Mainstreet’s last poll in August), while the Conservatives
with new leader Erin O’Toole have 34.6% (+7.2%), the NDP led by Jagmeet Singh has
15.2% (+1.1%). In comparison, the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Blanchet
has 5.7% nationally, (-0.9%) with 24.4% in Quebec (-5.1%). The Greens led by Jo-Ann
Roberts has 4.6% (-0.2%).
• The same regional differences subsist with O’Toole leading the Conservatives,
despite their bounce this month. The Liberals still have the lead in the Atlantic
provinces, Quebec, and Ontario, even though the gap between the Conservatives and
the Liberals has narrowed.
• That said, the Conservatives still maintain a healthy lead in Alberta and the
Prairies and find themselves in a statistical tie with the Liberals in British Columbia.

• The poll also asked Canadians when they preferred the next election to be held.
Canadians prefer this Parliament to last quite a bit longer, with nearly 59% saying they
want the election after the spring of 2021, with 35% saying they want the election on
the next fixed election date.
• We also asked Canadians which government they trust more to handle jobs and
the economy, the COVID-19 recovery, education and health care.
• In each case, a majority of Canadians said they trust their provincial government
over the federal government in each case.
• Finally, Canadians were asked if they thought their Member of Parliament should
agree with everything his or her party stands for.
• 49% agree that their MP should agree with everything their party stands for, with
14% strongly agreeing. 45% disagreed, with 17% strongly disagreeing. 6% were not
sure.
All Voters
If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?

11.1%

1.2%
2.1%
3.4% 33.6%

13.4%
All Voters

4.3%

Decided and Leaning

All Voters
30.9%

8%1.6%
2.2%
1.9%
4.6%
Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
2.5% NDP Green People's Party Another Party
5%
15.2% Undecided
36.9%
37.1%

9.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning
4.8%

6.2%

30%
34.6%

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens

Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois

People's Party NDP Party GreenUndecided
Another People's Party Another Party
Which of the following governments do you trust more to
handle the following issues?
100%

90%

100%
80%
90%
70%
80%
37.4%
60% 41.2%
70% 44.1% 44.3%
50% 37.4%
60% 41.2%
44.1% 44.3%
40% 50%

30% 40%

30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0% 55.9% 58.8% 62.6% 55.7%
0% 55.9% 58.8% 62.6% 55.7%
Jobs and The Economy COVID-19 Pandemic Education Health Care
Jobs and The Economy COVID-19 Pandemic Education Health Care
Recovery
Recovery

Provincial
ProvincialGovernment
Government Federal
Federal Government
Government

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I

want my Member of Parliament to agree with everything
that his or her party stands for.
6.1%
13.9%

6.1%
13.9%
16.9%

16.9%

34.9% 34.9%

28.2%
28.2%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree Don't Know
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 33.6% 30.2% 36.9% 25% 32.6% 38.1% 40.7% 30.1% 16.9% 26.8% 36.2% 38.6% 42.8%
Conservative, O'Toole 30.9% 39.3% 22.6% 28.9% 30.8% 35.6% 27.2% 30% 61% 39.6% 28.8% 16.7% 34.5%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 4.3% 3.6% 5% 2.7% 6.3% 3.8% 4.7% - - - - 18.4% -
NDP, Singh 13.4% 10.7% 16.1% 26.4% 10.2% 5.6% 10.3% 16.8% 6.8% 17.6% 14.9% 12.3% 9.2%
Green, Roberts 3.4% 3.1% 3.8% 3.4% 2.6% 4.2% 3.5% 5.8% 0.4% 3.4% 4% 2.7% 3.5%
People's Party, Bernier 2.1% 2.7% 1.4% 3.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.9% 2.1% 4.2% 0.9% 2.2% 1.6% -
Another Party 1.2% 2.1% 0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 2.4% 1% 0.6% 3.1%
Undecided 11.1% 8.3% 13.8% 8.5% 13% 11.6% 11.6% 13.9% 9.3% 9.2% 12.8% 9.2% 6.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 35.4% 31.2% 39.4% 25.4% 33.7% 40.2% 44.8% 32% 17.3% 26.8% 39.3% 39.5% 43.7%
Conservative, O'Toole 33% 41.2% 25% 31% 32.7% 38.3% 28.8% 32.3% 63.1% 41% 31.3% 18.7% 35.4%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 4.6% 3.7% 5.5% 3.5% 6.3% 4.1% 4.7% - - - - 19.7% -
NDP, Singh 14.5% 11.5% 17.5% 27.1% 11.9% 7.2% 10.3% 18.7% 6.8% 17.6% 16.3% 13% 10.7%
Green, Roberts 4.3% 3.3% 5.4% 4% 4.4% 5% 3.9% 7.2% 1.2% 4.9% 5% 3.2% 3.5%
People's Party, Bernier 2.1% 2.7% 1.4% 3.7% 2.8% 0.5% 0.9% 2.1% 4.2% 0.9% 2.2% 1.6% -
Another Party 1.5% 2.5% 0.5% 1.4% 1.9% 0.9% 2% 1.9% 1.8% 4.8% 1% 0.6% 3.1%
Undecided 4.6% 3.9% 5.4% 4% 6.3% 3.8% 4.5% 5.8% 5.6% 4% 4.7% 3.7% 3.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

(Decided And Leaning Voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 37.1% 32.4% 41.6% 26.4% 36% 41.8% 47% 34% 18.3% 28% 41.3% 41% 45.4%
Conservative, O'Toole 34.6% 43% 26.4% 32.3% 34.9% 39.8% 30.2% 34.3% 66.8% 42.6% 32.8% 19.3% 36.6%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 4.8% 3.8% 5.7% 3.6% 6.7% 4.2% 4.9% - - - - 20.5% -
NDP, Singh 15.2% 11.9% 18.5% 28.2% 12.7% 7.6% 10.8% 19.9% 7.3% 18.3% 17.2% 13.6% 11.1%
Green, Roberts 4.6% 3.4% 5.7% 4.2% 4.7% 5.2% 4.1% 7.7% 1.3% 5.2% 5.2% 3.4% 3.6%
People's Party, Bernier 2.2% 2.9% 1.5% 3.9% 3% 0.5% 0.9% 2.2% 4.5% 1% 2.3% 1.7% -
Another Party 1.6% 2.6% 0.6% 1.4% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1.9% 5% 1.1% 0.6% 3.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1249 769 480 229 351 404 265 156 149 76 465 319 84
Weighted Frequency 1249 619 630 347 313 344 245 170 141 81 479 292 86
 As you might know, the latest possible date of the next federal election as
stated by the Canada Elections Act is October 16, 2023. That said, there is a
minority government and an election can be called at any time. When would
you prefer the next federal election to be held?
18- 35- 50-
Total Male Female 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
34 49 64
Before The End Of The Year 23.1% 29.4% 17% 27.1% 26.8% 21.3% 15.4% 17.4% 37.6% 33.3% 20.6% 18.4% 31.5%
After January 2021 But Before The
18.2% 17.8% 18.7% 18.5% 14.1% 19.3% 21.8% 18.8% 22.3% 13.2% 18.7% 17.2% 16.6%
Spring
After Spring 2021 But Before Fixed
23.6% 23% 24.2% 23.3% 21.9% 23.4% 26.4% 23.9% 20.3% 18.2% 23.2% 25.8% 28.4%
Election Date
On Fixed Election Date 35% 29.9% 40% 31.1% 37.2% 36% 36.4% 40% 19.8% 35.4% 37.5% 38.6% 23.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Before The End Of The Year 23.1% 7.3% 48.4% 17.9% 8.7% 10.6% 68.6% 56% 12.1%
After January 2021 But Before The Spring 18.2% 11.4% 25.2% 7.3% 20.3% 21.5% 23% 13.2% 20%
After Spring 2021 But Before Fixed Election Date 23.6% 22.8% 19.5% 35.3% 29.9% 35.1% 5.6% 26.6% 24.7%
On Fixed Election Date 35% 58.5% 6.9% 39.5% 41.1% 32.8% 2.7% 4.1% 43.2%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145

We would now like to ask you a few questions about trust in government.
Which of the following governments do you trust more to handle the
following issues?
(Jobs And The Economy)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Federal Government 44.1% 42.9% 45.3% 44.9% 40.7% 45.2% 45.7% 40% 30.5% 38.7% 47.5% 46.9% 51.6%
Provincial Government 55.9% 57.1% 54.7% 55.1% 59.3% 54.8% 54.3% 60% 69.5% 61.3% 52.5% 53.1% 48.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Federal Government 44.1% 72.2% 17% 23% 57.2% 43.1% 5% 21.2% 37%
Provincial Government 55.9% 27.8% 83% 77% 42.8% 56.9% 95% 78.8% 63%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145
 (COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Federal Government 41.2% 38.8% 43.5% 40.8% 40.7% 44% 38.4% 21.8% 34.7% 48.6% 48.2% 41.8% 42.2%
Provincial Government 58.8% 61.2% 56.5% 59.2% 59.3% 56% 61.6% 78.2% 65.3% 51.4% 51.8% 58.2% 57.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Federal Government 41.2% 67% 16% 13.3% 53.9% 40.3% 5% 24.7% 37.4%
Provincial Government 58.8% 33% 84% 86.7% 46.1% 59.7% 95% 75.3% 62.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145

(Education)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Federal Government 37.4% 33.7% 41.1% 43.7% 37.1% 34.8% 32.6% 22.3% 31.2% 32.7% 48.2% 34.5% 32.2%
Provincial Government 62.6% 66.3% 58.9% 56.3% 62.9% 65.2% 67.4% 77.7% 68.8% 67.3% 51.8% 65.5% 67.8%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Federal Government 37.4% 58% 13.5% 3% 51.6% 51.6% 17.1% 15.6% 39.6%
Provincial Government 62.6% 42% 86.5% 97% 48.4% 48.4% 82.9% 84.4% 60.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145

(Health Care)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Federal Government 44.3% 43.7% 44.9% 48.5% 43.7% 43.7% 40% 40.2% 39.9% 50.3% 53.1% 33.4% 41.7%
Provincial Government 55.7% 56.3% 55.1% 51.5% 56.3% 56.3% 60% 59.8% 60.1% 49.7% 46.9% 66.4% 58.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Federal Government 44.3% 65.4% 22% 10.7% 56% 54.7% 21.5% 29% 44.1%
Provincial Government 55.7% 34.6% 78% 89.3% 44% 45.3% 78.5% 71% 55.9%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I want my Member
of Parliament to agree with everything that his or her party stands for.
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Strongly Agree 13.9% 16.4% 11.4% 12.9% 12.8% 15.1% 14.8% 11% 13.7% 18% 14% 13.9% 14.7%
Somewhat Agree 34.9% 31.4% 38.4% 35.3% 33.6% 33.4% 38.3% 39.5% 40.7% 37.2% 33.8% 34% 23.8%
Somewhat Disagree 28.2% 26.2% 30.1% 28.9% 29.7% 27.1% 26.8% 29.7% 26.4% 23.9% 27.6% 30% 29.5%
Strongly Disagree 16.9% 20.9% 13% 16.6% 19.5% 17.4% 13.2% 17.6% 14.1% 12.3% 17.2% 16.4% 24.4%
Don't Know 6.1% 5.1% 7.1% 6.4% 4.3% 6.9% 6.9% 2.2% 5.1% 8.6% 7.3% 5.8% 7.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 799 508 239 374 419 275 164 157 80 489 330 87
Weighted Frequency 1307 647 660 363 327 360 256 178 148 85 501 305 90

Total LPC CPC Bloc NDP Green PPC Other UD

Strongly Agree 13.9% 16.4% 14.4% 9.9% 9.8% 19.3% 9.2% - 11.9%
Somewhat Agree 34.9% 38.6% 36.6% 24.6% 35.4% 25.6% 23.7% 21.2% 29.2%
Somewhat Disagree 28.2% 25.4% 25.9% 53.7% 35.8% 39.5% 25% 9.6% 23.1%
Strongly Disagree 16.9% 12.8% 18.3% 11.8% 12.3% 13.1% 34.5% 69.3% 25.1%
Don't Know 6.1% 6.9% 4.8% - 6.7% 2.5% 7.6% - 10.7%
Unweighted Frequency 1307 444 433 62 143 43 26 18 138
Weighted Frequency 1307 439 404 56 176 45 27 16 145
Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, Date
which party would you vote for? On Fixed Election Date
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin We would now like to ask you a few
O’Toole questions about trust in government.
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Which of the following governments do
Blanchet (Quebec only) you trust more to handle the following
New Democratic Party of Canada led by issues?
Jagmeet Singh (order of the following were randomized)
Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Jobs And The Economy
Roberts COVID-19 Pandemic Recovery
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Health Care
Bernier Education
Another Party
Undecided Do you agree or disagree with the
following statement: I want my Member of
And which party are you leaning towards? Parliament to agree with everything that
(only asked of those who said they were his or her party stands for.
undecided) Strongly Agree
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau Somewhat Agree
Conservative Party of Canada led by Erin Somewhat Disagree
O’Toole Strongly Disagree
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Don’t Know
Blanchet (Quebec only)
New Democratic Party of Canada led by What is your gender?
Jagmeet Singh Male
Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Female
Roberts
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime What is your age group?
Bernier 18 to 34 years of age
Another Party 35 to 49 years of age
Undecided 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
As you might know, the latest possible
date of the next federal election as stated
by the Canada Elections Act is October
16, 2023. That said, there is a minority
government and an election can be called
at any time. When would you prefer the
next federal election to be held?
Before The End Of The Year
After January 2021 But Before The Spring
After Spring 2021 But Before Fixed Election
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on September 21st-24th,
2020, among a sample of 1307 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces.
In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region
of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of
making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.7% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.