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ISSN 0003-701X, Applied Solar Energy, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp. 164–172. © Allerton Press, Inc., 2016.

SOLAR RADIATION

Empirical Models for The Estimation of Global Solar Radiation


with Sunshine Hours on Horizontal Surface for Jharkhand (India)1
K. Namrataa, S. P. Sharmab, and S. B. L. Seksenaa
a
Department of Electrical Engineering, NIT Jamshedpur, Jharkhand, India
b
Department of Mechanical/Energy Engineering, NIT Jamshedpur, Jharkhand, India
e-mail: nirmala_bimal@yahoo.com
Received December 26, 2015

Abstract⎯ The main objective of this study is to develop a linear regression model for estimating radiation for
some selected cities of Jharkhand region. Taking sunshine hours as the prime concern, the three main places
which come under this region, namely—Jamshedpur (longitude 86°11′ E, latitude 22°48′ N), Ranchi (longi-
tude 85°20′ E, latitude 23°21′ N) and Bokaro (longitude 86°09′ E, latitude 23°40′ N) a set of regression con-
stants were obtained in order to develop the linear regression model. The new developed models estimated
the value of regression constant “a” which is ranging between 0.204 to 0.211 and value of regression constant
“b” ranging from 0.489 to 0.514. Results are compared with measured data and some well known models with
the help of statistical test for city Ranchi. Finally, the proposed model was preferred for estimation of solar
radiation in Ranchi, with smallest statistical errors among all models and close agreement with measured
data.

DOI: 10.3103/S0003701X16030099

1. INTRODUCTION an obvious relationship between sunshine duration


Due to environmental pollution and increase in and the amount of solar energy received at the earth’s
fuel costs the use of renewable energies, particularly surface. Global solar radiation has been measured in
solar energy has increased around the world. Knowl- various parts in India. Many linear regression models
edge of accurate solar radiation information, espe- have been developed and many studies based on these
cially monthly mean daily global solar radiation on a models have been performed to estimate solar energy.
horizontal surface, is considered as the most import- Monthly average solar radiation on the horizontal sur-
ant parameter [1, 2] in the performance prediction face was studied by Angstrom [9]. A statistical assess-
and design of any solar energy system. Obviously, ment of the accuracy of 11 Indian stations was done
measured data is the best form of this knowledge. [10]. Estimation of global radiation in Pakistan con-
Unfortunately, there are very few, meteorological sta- sidering the effect of latitude was done [11]. The solar
tions that measure global solar radiation. In Jharkhand energy potential for locations with latitudes between
(India) state, there is a scarce/sparse of solar radiation 60 to 70 degrees north was investigated in [12]. They
data, but as Jharkhand, region passes through the measured the complete one year data and discussed
tropic of cancer, it is privileged with high amount of the clearness index. It was reported [13] the first order
radiation. As a result, dependency exists on prediction Angstrom type correlations for four locations (Jodh-
of the models to estimate monthly mean global solar pur, Calcutta, Bombay and Pune, India) respectively,
radiation based on different meteorological parame- for the estimation of global solar radiations using the
ters [3–8]. The most commonly used parameter for long – range measured data of five years (2001–2005).
estimating global solar radiation is sunshine duration. Estimation of monthly average global solar radiation
Among various correlations the modified version of for city Ranchi (Jharkhand, region) a tropical location
Angstrom equation [9] who proposed a linear relation- was investigated in [14]. They examined and compared
ship between the ratio of average daily global solar some well known existing models (linear and qua-
radiation to the corresponding values on a completely dratic) to choose the suitable model for Jharkhand
clear day and the ratio of average daily sunshine dura- region. Most part of these Indian region has high solar
tion and its derivation has been widely used. There is energy potential. As this literature review shows,
although solar radiation data have been reported for
1 The article is published in the original.
many Indian regions, reliable and measured global

164
EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION 165

radiation data is still needed for Jharkhand (India) relates monthly average daily global radiation to the
region in the absence of meteorological stations. This average daily sunshine hours, and is given by the fol-
study, therefore, addresses this need. For this we mea- lowing expression:
sured solar energy radiation for the period (2010–
2012) for the cities under consideration. We then sup-
ported our measurements by developing the linear
Hg
H0
=a+b n ,
N ( ) (1)
regression model for the three main cities in this
region. With the help of this developed model, global where H 0 is extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal
solar radiation has been estimated and compared with surface.
the existing model as well as with the measured data in The daily value H 0 was computed according to the
conjunction with different statistical test to show the following equations:
validation of the proposed model. The error range lies
between the prescribed zones [15]. H 0 = 24 × 3600
π
( )
The main objectives of this paper are: (2)
1. To develop a linear regression model for estimat- × I 0 f cos λ cos δ sin ω s + π ω s sin λ sin δ .
180
ing radiation in some selected cities in Jharkhand.
The eccentricity correction factor (f), solar decli-
2. To estimate the monthly average daily global nation (δ) and the sunrise hour angle (ωs) can be
solar radiation on a horizontal surface at Ranchi using respectively calculated as:
the proposed model, including different empirical
relations.
3. Compare each model with measured data of
(
f = 1 + 0.033 cos 360n ,
365 ) (3)
Ranchi using a statistical test which includes MAPE, ⎡360 ( 284 + n)⎤
MBE, RMSE, NSE and t-stat. δ = 23.45 sin ⎢ ⎥⎦ , (4)
⎣ 365

2. MATERIAL AND METHODS ω s = arccos ( − tan λ tan δ) , (5)


2.1. Study Location N = 2 ωs. (6)
General climate of Jharkhand. Jharkhand is located 15
in the eastern part of India and is enclosed by Bihar to
the northern side, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh to 2.3. Evaluation of Regression Constants for Selected
the western side, Orissa to the southern part and West Cities of Jharkhand Employing Angstrom Method
Bengal to the eastern part. Jharkhand envelops a geo- In this section a linear regression model has been
graphical area of 79.70 lakh hectares. A lot many areas developed for estimating monthly average of daily
of Jharkhand lie on the Chhota Nagpur Plateau. global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for three
There are three well-defined seasons in Jharkhand. selected cities of Jharkhand namely Jamshedpur
The cold-weather season, from November to Febru- (22°48′ N, 86°11′ E), Ranchi (23°21′ N, 85°20′ E) and
ary, is the most pleasant part of the year. In these Bokaro (23°40′ N, 86°09′ E).
months the temperature in Jharkhand ranges from 7 to
27°C. The hot-weather season lasts from March to For this value of global solar radiation H g and hour
mid-June. In the month of May the minimum tem- of bright sunshine ( n ) were measured at the city Jam-
perature is about 25°C and the maximum temperature shedpur and Bokaro for the period (2010–2012) using
is 45°. The season of the southwest monsoon from mid Pyranometer and in city Ranchi these values were col-
June to October, brings nearly all of the state’s annual lected from the Solar Radiation Handbook [16] (Solar
rainfall, which ranges from about 1.000 mm in the Energy Centre, MNRE, India Meteorological
west-central part of the state to more than 1.500 mm in Department). The standard methodology is followed
the southwest. Rainfall on the plateau is generally to calculate the extraterrestrial and global radiation for
heavier than on the plains. Nearly half of the annual the above places. Extraterrestrial radiation can be pre-
precipitation falls in July and August. cisely evaluated for any place and for any day of the
month from the solar constant and relevant astronom-
ical variables. Under the overcast condition, n N
2.2. Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surface becomes zero and regression constant “a” thus rep-
Various climate models have been developed for resents the global radiation received at the ground
use in predicting the monthly average global solar through an overcast sky as a function of extraterrestrial
radiation, the popular one being the Angstrom-type radiation. The regression constant “b” expresses the
regression equation developed by Angstrom. This rate of increase of global radiation with increase in

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


166 NAMRATA et al.

n N . So many investigations have been reported [17–23] e. Gopinathan model


which is based on the monthly mean value of thess Gopinathan [28] proposed “a” and “b” are related
number of days “n” and global solar radiation. A typi- to three parameters, the latitude, the elevation and the
cal value of “a” published in literature [15] is from 0.14 sunshine hours.
to 0.54 and those of “b” from 0.18 to 0.73. Lower val-
ues of “a” are invariably associated with higher values a = − 0.309 + 0.539 cos φ
of “b” and vice-versa. − 0.0639h + 0.290 n ,
N ( )
b = 1.527 − 1.027 cos φ

( )
3. DESCRIPTION OF MODELS FOR
ESTIMATING GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION + 0.0926h − 0.359 n ,
N
The models use to predict the monthly average
= 0.32 + 0.42 ( n ) .
global solar radiations on a horizontal surface, consid- Hg
(11)
ered for this case study are: H0 N
a. Rietveld model f. Present model

( )
Rietveld [24] examined several published values of Hg
“a” and “b” and noted that “a” is related linearly and = 0.2111 + 0.489 n . (12)
H0 N
“b” hyperbolically to the mean value of n such that
N
this equation is believed to be applicable anywhere in 4. COMPARISON AND VALIDATION OF
the world and yields superior results for cloudy condi- MODELS WITH STATISTICAL ERRORS
tions, for n < 0.4. There are many parameters which deal with the
N assessment and comparison of monthly mean daily

( )
solar radiation estimation models. Here the statistical
Hg
= 0.18 + 0.62 n . (7) parameters like the mean bias error (MBE) and the
H0 N root mean square error (RMSE) helps to calculate the
error or the deviation of the calculated value of the
b. Ogleman model
measured value. Mean percentage error (MPE) and
Ogleman [25] et al. proposed the use of a correla- coefficient of correlation (R) tests the linear relation-
tion which relates the global solar radiation to S in a ship between predicted and measured values. The best
quadratic form as: result is when these statistics are closer to zero, but the
coefficient of correlation, R, should approach to 1 as
( ) ( ).
2
Hg closely as possible for better modeling. To improve the
= 0.195 + 0.675 n − 0.142 n (8)
results and better comparison the Nash–Sutcliffe
H0 N N
equation (NSE) is also selected as an evaluation crite-
c. Akinoglu model rion. A model is more efficient when NSE is closer to 1.
Akinoglu and Ecevit [26] suggested a quadratic The errors that have been estimated help to compare
the models, but they do not make the model statisti-
correlation between the ratio of H g H 0 and S to esti- cally significant. The t-statistic allows models to be
mate the values of global solar radiation for 58 loca- compared and at the same time it is carried out to
tions displaced in several countries. This equation, determine statistical significance of the predicted val-
whose coefficients have the same values, respectively, ues by the models.
for all tested locations is
a. The mean bias error

( ) ( )
−2
Hg
= 0.145 + 0.845 n − 0.280 n
n
. (9)
H0 N N MBE = 1
n
∑H i, calc − H i, meas . (13)
1
d. Glover model
This test provides information on long-term per-
Glover and McCulloch [27] attempted to intro- formance. A low MBE value is desired. A negative
duce latitude dependency to one of the Angstrom- value gives the average amount of underestimation in
Prescott coefficients and presented the following the calculated value. So, one drawback of these two
mentioned test is that overestimation of an individual
Hg
H0
= 0.29 cos ϕ + 0.52 n .
N ( ) (10) observation will cancel underestimation in a separate
observation.

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION 167

Table 1. Regression constant for selected locations The value of RMSE is always positive, representing
Regression constants zero in the ideal case. The normalized root mean
Location square error gives information on the short term per-
a b a+b
formance of the correlations by allowing a term by
Jamshedpur 0.2026 0.514 0.7166 term comparison of the actual deviation between the
Ranchi 0.2111 0.489 0.7001 predicted and measured values. The smaller the value,
Bokaro 0.2039 0.5104 0.7143 the better is the model’s performance.
d. Nash–Sutcliffe equation
b. Mean percentage error n

∑ (H − H i,meas )
2
MPE (%) i,calc
n
⎛ (H i,calc − H i, meas ) ⎞ (14) NSE = 1 − 1
, (16)

n
=1 ⎟ × 100.

∑ (H − H i,meas )
2
n 1 ⎝ H i,meas ⎠ meas
1
c. Root mean square error
where H meas is the mean measured global radiation. A
12 model is more efficient when NSE is closer to 1.
⎡ n
2⎤
RMSE = ⎢1
⎢⎣n
∑ (H i,calc − H i,meas ) ⎥
⎥⎦
. (15) e. MAPE
1
n
H i,meas − H i.calc
MAPE (%) = 1
n
∑ H i,meas
. (17)
Ratio of global to extraterrestrial

f. Coefficient of correlation
0.60
The coefficient of correlation, r can be used to
solar radiation

0.55 determine the linear relationship between the mea-


0.50 sured and estimated values.
g. t-Statistical test
0.45
It is one of the tests for mean values, the random
0.40 variable t with n − 1 degrees of freedom may be written
0.35 here as follows:
0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 12
0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 ⎡ ( n − 1)(MBE ) 2 ⎤
Clearness index t=⎢ ⎥ . (18)
⎢⎣(RMSE ) − (MBE ) ⎥⎦
2 2

Fig. 1. Relationship between


Hg
and n for the city Jam-
The smaller the value of t the better is the perfor-
H0 N mance. To determine whether a model’s estimate is
shedpur. statistically significant, one simply has to determine,
from standard statistical tables, the critical t value. For
the model’s estimates to be judged statistically signifi-
Ratio of global to extraterrestrial

cant at the calculated t value must be less than the crit-


0.60 ical value.
0.55
solar radiation

0.50 5. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION


0.45 5.1. Regression Analysis
0.40 The values of H g H 0 and n N are plotted in
0.35 Figs. 1–3 for the selected cities of Jharkhand. The
slope of the plot and its intercept on the ordinate will
0.30 represent, respectively the values of “a” and “b.”
0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
Clearness index These values are shown in Table 1. From the results
highlighted in Table 1 the following first order Ang-
strom correlation models have been developed for use
Hg in estimating values of global solar radiation H g at each
Fig. 2. Relationship between and n for the city Ranchi.
H0 N of the respective three cities as given below:

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


168 NAMRATA et al.
Ratio of global to extraterrestrial
Clearness Index (n N = 1), averaged over the period of
0.60 analysis, are found to be almost equal for the three cities.
The values of (a + b)obtaining for Jamshedpur, Ranchi
0.55
solar radiation

and Bokaro are 0.717, 0.700 and 0.714 respectively.


0.50
0.45 5.2. Validation of Estimated Solar Radiation
0.40 on Horizontal Surface using Different Models
and Statistical Analysis of Models
0.35
0.30 The monthly average global solar radiation have
0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 been estimated using various models and proposed
Clearness index model (Eqs. 7–12) along with the measured data for
city Ranchi is shown in Table 2 and plotted in Fig. 4.
The result obtained from statistical tests (Eqs. (13)–
Hg
Fig. 3. Relationship between and n for the city (18)) are summarized in Table 3 as well as plotted in
H0 N Figs. 5–11. It can be observed from this table, that
Bokaro. present model (Eqs. 12) has the best correlation coef-
ficient with R2 = 0.975, while the Akinoglu model has
a. For Jamshedpur a correlation factor of R2 = 0.972 followed by Ogle-
mann, Glover and Rietveld models having the correla-
Hg
H0
= 0.2026 + 0.514 n .
N ( ) (19) tion coefficients 0.97, 0.96 and 0.955 respectively. The
lowest correlation coefficients R2 = 0.889 is from
b. For Ranchi Gopinathan model. The accuracy of each model used
in the estimation of global solar radiation was tested by
Hg
H0
= 0.2111 + 0.489 n .
N ( ) (20)
calculating the mean bias error (MBE, %) and the root
mean square error (RMSE) from Equations (13) and
(15) respectively. It was observed that the lower the
c. For Bokaro RMSE the more accurate the equation used. Positive

( )
Hg MBE shows overestimation and a negative MBE show
= 0.2039 + 0.5104 n . (21) under estimation. In comparison with all the models,
H0 N present model estimates the lowest RMSE having
It is apparent from Eqs. (19–21) that neither “a” 7.82% and the highest one with Gopinathan model
nor “b” vary with latitude or altitude in any systematic (24.9%) followed by globally (20.11%), Rietveld
manner. However, the values of the sum of the regres- (12.5%), Oglemann (9.23%) and Akinoglu (8.47%).
sion constants a + b; which represent the maximum The MBE values obtained from the models are posi-

Table 2. Comparison between measured and estimated monthly average daily global radiation (MJ/(m2-day)) for the city
Ranchi
Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan Proposed
Month Measured
model model model model model model
Jan 17.079 16.230 16.157 17.204 16.687 14.966 15.630
Feb 19.279 18.427 18.380 19.499 18.917 17.072 17.690
March 21.293 20.623 20.647 21.756 21.198 19.130 20.820
April 24.096 23.258 23.265 24.552 23.798 21.323 22.210
May 23.431 23.001 23.083 24.225 23.688 20.930 21.190
June 16.324 16.973 16.718 18.322 18.945 15.505 16.750
July 14.959 15.683 15.282 17.132 17.952 14.257 14.500
Aug 14.304 15.004 14.610 16.405 17.240 14.074 13.890
Sept 15.408 15.860 15.761 16.946 17.387 14.569 14.900
Oct 16.293 16.272 16.337 17.151 17.128 15.071 15.760
Nov 16.710 16.072 16.061 16.979 16.569 14.721 15.340
Dec 16.211 15.397 15.323 16.324 15.845 14.201 14.680

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION 169

Rietveld Ogleman Akinoglu

Glover Proposwd model Gopinathan

Measured data
30

Hg MJ/(m2-day)
20

10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month

Fig. 4. The measured and predicted monthly average daily global solar radiation ( H g ) for the city Ranchi in the generation of
different models.

tive in some cases and negative in others. Values of From the statistical results a new linear model
MBE from all the models except present model indi-
cate an over estimation. Present model has very little
under estimation, i.e. 6.28%. Also, the highest values
Hg
H0 ( )
= 0 . 2111 + 0 . 489 n .
N
of NSE (0.91) as shown in Fig. 9 and lowest values of based on the modified Angstrom model is
t-test results (Table 3) indicate the superiority of the extremely recommended to estimate monthly average
proposed model with respect to others. The daily global solar radiation for Ranchi (Jharkhand)
RMSE(%) value, which is a measure of the accuracy and in elsewhere with similar climate conditions areas
of estimation, has been found to be the lowest for the where radiation data are unavailable. Further, the
present model (7.83%) as shown in Table 3 and plotted in other new proposed models are also being recom-
Fig. 8. The transmissivity of the atmosphere of global mended for estimating the average daily global solar
solar radiation under perfectly clear sky conditions is radiation for Jamshedpur and Bokaro.
given as the sum of the regression coefficients, a + b.
Also, the transmissivity of an overcast atmosphere is
6. CONCLUSIONS
interpreted as the intercept “a.” Hence, the need to
compare present regression relation with others in The objective of this study was to evaluate various
terms of the atmospheric transmissivity values. From models for the estimation of monthly average daily
present regression constants (a = 0.2111 and b = 0.489) global radiation ( H g ) on a horizontal surface from
i.e. 0.7001. The clear-sky transmissivity of most tropical bright sunshine hours for some selected cities of
regions in general seems to lie between 0.68 and 0.75 [18]. Jharkhand and to select the most appropriate model

Table 3. Validation of the models under different statistical test for the city ranchi
Statistical Parameters Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan

R2 0.975 0.955 0.970 0.972 0.960 0.889

MBE MJ/(m2-day) –0.628 1.002 0.786 0.688 1.927 1.82


MPE –0.036 0.058 0.048 0.041 0.116 0.114
RMSE MJ/(m2-day) 0.783 1.250 0.923 0.847 2.011 2.049
NSE 0.92 0.796 0.888 0.906 0.470 0.450
MAPE 0.037 0.062 0.049 0.042 0.116 0.114
t-Stat 4.447 4.448 5.384 4.456 11.396 6.627

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


170 NAMRATA et al.

Present

R2 Model

Fig. 5. Coefficient of determination (R2) of six models.

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan


MBE

Model

Fig. 6. MBE of the six models.

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan


MPE, %

Model

Fig. 7. MPE of the six models.

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan


RMSE, kJ/(m2-day)

Model

Fig. 8. RMSE of the six models.

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan


NSE

Model

Fig. 9. NSE of the six models.

APPLIED SOLAR ENERGY Vol. 52 No. 3 2016


EMPIRICAL MODELS FOR THE ESTIMATION 171

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan

MAPE, %
Model

Fig. 10. MAPE of the six models.

Present Rietveld Oglemann Akinoglu Glover Gopinathan


t-Stat

Model

Fig. 11. t-Stat of the six models.

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