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INTE L
REPORT
H2 2019 - H1 2020
Thoughts from the CEO & Founder
We are excited to share with you our eleventh semiannual Solar Marketplace Intel Report™ covering the twelve
month period from July 2019 through June 2020. Much has changed in the solar industry in the first half of 2020
due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and this report addresses those changes and challenges head on. Between
surveys of solar shoppers and installers, as well as a review of our own business metrics, I remain confident that
solar is–and will continue to be–a very resilient industry.
In this report, we compare EnergySage pricing distributions to those seen in Tracking the Sun data from Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). We also introduce storage preference, pricing and Marketplace share data for
the first time.
Vikram Aggarwal Here are some of our top findings from our First look: storage brand Marketplace share
eleventh Intel Report™: on EnergySage
CEO & Founder Tesla’s Powerwall 2 is the most quoted storage option sonnen
Eguana Technologies
Quoted system sizes continue to increase on EnergySage, up slightly to 10 kilowatts (kW) in 2020 so far. According to the Solar
Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and WoodMackenzie data, installed system sizes continue to increase year over year in
the US residential market as a whole, but remain more than 20 percent lower than systems quoted on EnergySage.
EnergySage Marketplace National Price Distribution, H1 2020 Gross Cost Per Watt, by Half Year
$3.15
Energy Sage National Distribution $3.00 $3.10
10% $3.05
$3.00
EnergySage Median $/W $2.92 $2.89
$2.85
0% $2.75
$2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00
4
0
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H
Payback Period Size of Quoted System Median $/W
Quotes on EnergySage are clustered at a lower cost than installed costs off-market
As was the case in 2018, in 2019, the distribution of solar installed costs reported in TTS data is much wider
and flatter than the distribution of quoted solar prices on EnergySage. Overall, the median installed cost of solar
EnergySage sincerely thanks Galen Barbose and Naim
in the US in 2019 of $3.75/W, as reported by LBNL, is 29 percent higher than the median quoted price for solar
Darghouth from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for
on EnergySage in 2019 of $2.90/W. This difference between installed costs nationwide and quoted prices on
their help with Tracking the Sun data. All analysis and opinions
EnergySage has persisted for over five years.
expressed in the text are EnergySage's alone.
$4.50
30%
Percent of solar quotes and
$4.00
20%
installations by $/W
$3.50
10%
$3.00
0
$2.50
$2.00 $3.00 $4.00 $5.00 $6.00
4
9
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2
2
H
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$/W
EnergySage national Tracking the Sun national price distribution (2019) EnergySage Median Tracking the Sun 2019 median
price distribution (2019)
NOTE: Tracking the Sun data are cleaned to focus only on customer-owned systems, and to remove
reported pricing info for Sunrun, Tesla and Vivint, which are often reported as appraised costs.
When we look at where the interest is coming from we see a broad market for solar-plus-storage
across the country, and not just in places like California.
Why are consumers interested in storage? Percent of solar shoppers interested in storage quotes on
(Note: EnergySage shoppers can select more than one option) EnergySage (select 15 markets)
Off-Grid 13%
To add a
battery later 28%
Self-supply 32%
Financial
Savings 48%
Resilience 65%
min max
NOTE: Data have been revised to remove outliers in user-provided data.
To date, the two most widely quoted storage brands on the EnergySage Marketplace are Tesla and LG Chem, in line
with installation data from California’s Self Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) over the last few years. Presently,
over half of all quotes on EnergySage are for the Tesla Powerwall 2. Looking at installed costs, Tesla is also the lowest
cost offering on a dollar per kilowatt-hour ($/kWh) basis. Interestingly, two companies who use lithium iron phosphate
(LFP) battery chemistries–Enphase and sonnen–see the highest $/kWh costs in the Marketplace.
First look: storage brand Marketplace share on EnergySage Percent difference from least expensive option
Eguana
Technologies 98%
sonnen 100%
Generac
84%
Panasonic Solar
& Battery Storage
75%
% difference ($/kWh)
Enphase Energy
50%
37%
Tesla
25% 21%
LG Chem 13% 15%
0%
0%
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Impact of COVID-19 on year-over-year (y/y) organic consumer How has the current COVID-19 situation changed your
traffic and registration volumes interest in solar?
January 2020 February 2020 March 2020 April 2020 May 2020 June 2020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
How likely are you to shop online for solar and storage now
then pre-pandemic?
Solar
Much less likely than before Less likely than before No change
0% 0% 0%
$2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
30% 30%
EnergySage state average, $/W
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
$2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
0% 0% 0%
$2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
30% 30%
EnergySage state average, $/W
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
$2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
State Solar Economics: Gross Cost Per Watt and Payback Period (Years)
H2 2018 H1 2019 Delta
RESIDENTIAL AVERAGE ELECTRIC
STATES MEDIAN PAYBACK MEDIAN PAYBACK PAYBACK
RANK $/W RATE (C/KWH)
$/W PERIOD $/W PERIOD PERIOD
15%
% Difference from national average $/W
State solar pricing:
0%
-15%
UT
VT
AZ
FL
WA
NV
OH
TX
AR
DE
NC
ME
CA
NJ
OR
MD
IN
VA
PA
ID
NY
DC
RI
MA
GA
IL
NM
SC
MI
LA
MO
WI
CO
MN
NH
State System Characteristics: Quoted System Size (kW) and Usage Offset (%)
RESIDENTIAL System Size % offset Delta Delta AVERAGE MONTHLY
STATES
RANK H2 2019 H1 2020 H2 2020 System Size $/W CONSUMPTION (kWH)
10.0 kW
State System Size Difference from EnergySage National Average ENERGYSAGE NATIONAL AVG.
30%
% Difference from national average kW
State system sizes:
0%
-30%
7.8 kW 12.7 kW
UT
VT
CT
CA
DC
ME
CO
WI
MI
MA
NM
LA
RI
AZ
NH
IL
NY
MO
OR
MN
NV
OH
NC
GA
IN
NJ
PA
WA
DE
SC
MD
VA
TX
AR
ID
FL
25% REC*
25%
Q CELLS
LG*
0% Panasonic* 0%
6
0
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'1
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1
1
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NOTE: Data have been revised to remove outliers in user-provided data.
*Rebate offered. All solar panel manufacturers are eligible to offer a rebate to consumers via the EnergySage Marketplace.
Median $/W
Percent of Quotes by Panel Size $3.00
50%
$2.75
$2.50
40% <2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 2
2- 3- 4- 5- 6- 7- 8- 9- -1 -1 >1
10 11
System size, kW
30%
$3.00
Median $/W
10%
$2.75
0% $2.50
<270 270-280 280-290 290-300 300-310 310-320 320-330 330-340 340-350 350-360 360-370 >370
.5
.0
.5
.0
.5
.0
8
1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
.0
.5
.0
.5
.0
.5
Solar panel size, W
18
18
19
19
20
20
Panel efficiency, %
Median $/W
75% 75%
50% 50%
5+ 5+
4 4
3 3
25% 25%
2 2
1 1
0% 0%
6
0
'1
'1
'1
'1
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'1
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1
1
H
H
NOTE: Data have been revised to remove outliers in user-provided data.
Top 10 Equipment
Percent Difference from Least Expensive Equipment Pairing
30%
25.1%
20%
% Difference ($/W)
10% 9.1%
8.3%
6.9%
6.0%
4.4%
3.2% 3.7%
2.4%
0.0%
0%
PANEL
+ + + + + + + + + +
INVERTER
Dividend Solar
Sunlight Financial
0% 0%
6
0
6
'1
'1
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'1
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'1
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1
1
H
H
Solar shoppers assess quotes on more than just price. From the quality of solar equipment to
the ratings and reviews of the installer, there are a variety of metrics to consider when making
Individual solar shoppers
a solar decision. To track how the range of quoted prices have changed over time, EnergySage
see a range of quoted prices
analyzed the average maximum and minimum quotes that individual shoppers received.
from an average minimum price
of $2.71/W to an average
Shoppers see a $5,300 difference between lowest to highest quotes, on average maximum price
The average solar-interested customer on EnergySage could expect a range of quoted solar costs
of $3.24/W.
of 19 percent on a $/W basis in H2 2019 through H1 2020, the widest spread of prices since the
first half of 2017. For the average 10 kW system on EnergySage, this meant an average difference of
$5,300 between the upfront price of the minimum and maximum quotes received by each customer.
The movement of the average minimum price away from national median price may be indicative of
overall downward pressure on solar prices in the first half of 2020.
$4.25
$4.00
$3.75
$3.50
$/Watt
$3.25
$3.00
$2.75
Min/Max
Median
$2.50
H1 ’14 H2 ’14 H1 ’15 H2 ’15 H1 ’16 H2 ’16 H1 ’17 H2 ’17 H1 ’18 H2 ’18 H1 ’19 H2 ’19 H1 ’20
The EnergySage Marketplace data included in this report reviews nearly twenty million transaction
Solar Installer Survey: level data points from custom solar quotes provided to active solar shoppers on EnergySage from
2019 Results
July 2019 through June 2020.
Although this report presents this data aggregated at a very high level, EnergySage selectively partners
with different organizations in the solar industry to provide custom data reports, including equipment
manufacturers, national research laboratories and investment firms. If you’re interested in custom
solar data reports, explore our options at energysage.com/data or email us at data@energysage.com
to set up a consultation today.