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Optimizing the detection probability of frog species found within Victoria

Kali Gibbons

Deakin University

Introduction

This study focuses on survey methods used to detect frog species within their natural
wetland environments, focusing specifically on areas in Victoria, concentrated mostly in
Melbourne. Using these methods, and conducting surveys, is important for establishing species
distribution and determining how disturbances, urbanization, and human impact, among other
things, can affect a species and its environment. However, the same survey methods may not be
appropriate for each frog species, which leads to the intention of this study to examine multiple
variables of detectability for three common frog species, and to distinguish the optimal surveying
conditions for overall improvement of detection probability. The frog species being focused on
in this study include; Crinia signifera, Limnodynastes tasmaniensis, and Limnodynastes
dumerilii.

Studies have been done previously that revolved around detection probability and site
occupancy for frog species in limited areas; however, there is still a lack of information when
regarding individual species and their more widespread distribution. One study in particular that
focused on survey methods concluded that repeated surveys are necessary to establish confidence
in species’ presence and abundance; in addition to this, it was discovered that frogs are more
likely to be detected during nocturnal surveys (Heard et al., 2006). While this information is
valuable, it doesn’t address adequate numbers of factors that can heavily impact the detection
probability at any site; for example, survey length, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall.
Heard’s study didn’t encompass wetland sites too far outside of Melbourne, which is why this
study will expand the surveyed areas beyond the urban environment to provide more information
on differing species and conditions (Heard et al., 2006).

Conducting surveys to determine site occupancy for any species can be extremely
beneficial, especially because of the understanding that it can provide about the species and the
areas being examined. For Melbourne specifically, surveying the frog species located in and
around the city will provide important data regarding the species’ distributions. The data
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collected can be used further to determine how urbanization impacts frog species, establish more
effective conservation plans, and provide information on what can be done to ensure that the
frogs can survive in urbanized locations, which has been studied previously in other areas (Tsuji
et al., 2011).

This study’s main purpose is to collect data on the distribution of multiple frog species
within Melbourne, and to observe how various survey-level covariates influence the probability
of detection of these species. Learning about the conditions at which each species is detected
within its wetland habitat, allows for further analysis that will focus on optimizing the detection
probability for each species. The variables - including effort, temperature, wind speed, and
rainfall, among other things - provide the ideal conditions for species detection and can
determine the amount of surveys that need to be conducted for absolute confidence in species’
presence.

Methods

This study focused on three species of frogs commonly found within Victoria, including
the Common Eastern Froglet (Crinia signifera), Spotted Marsh Frog (Limnodynastes
tasmaniensis), and Southern Banjo Frog (Limnodynastes dumerilii). The Common Eastern
Froglet and Spotted Marsh Frog share many similarities, as both species are small in size, found
throughout eastern Australia, have the ability to survive in numerous habitat types, and mate
year-round (Lemckert, 2000) (Wilson et al., 2013). The Southern Banjo Frog differs, having a
smaller distribution focused mostly in southeastern Australia, and a tendency to burrow
underground in dry weather, meaning they’re likely to be detected after rainfall (Raftery et al.,
1993).

Surveys were conducted at 83 total separate locations in Victoria (Image 1), with each
site being surveyed at least 3 times, ensuring that the conditions were varied upon each visit.
Before beginning to survey for frogs in the habitat, data was recorded for several survey-level
covariates; including, the location, effort put into surveying, previous or current rainfall,
temperature, wind speed, time of day, and humidity. Additionally, estimates were made for the
site-level covariates, which were the percentages of vegetation types, urbanization of the area,
and proportion of the wetland. The survey method itself consisted of observing the wetland area
and listening for the respective calls of frog species in the habitat. Rather than count each call,
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the species were simply marked as either present or not present in the habitat, which was found
to be sufficient enough for determining species distribution and abundance.

Once the data was collected and compiled into one cohesive database, it was used to
perform a series of analytical models using R-Studio software, with the intention of determining
how to optimize detection probability for a few of the species observed. The survey-level
covariates were combined into various groupings based on their predicted relevance to the
detectability of species’ and run both individually and in these groups to determine the
significance of the variable on the species’ detection probability. The models were then all
compared, using the modSel() function, to establish which combination of variables was best fit,
or most significant, for each of the species. Next, using the best fit models and the predict()
function, predictions were made for each covariate involved in the best fit model to determine
the species future detectability. Plots were made with the predictions to showcase the
relationships between the most impactful covariates and the detection probability, including the
upper and lower confidence intervals for each set of data. This data was also used to discover the
approximate number of surveys needed for 95% confidence of a species’ presence based on if
the determined ideal conditions are met.

Image 1. A map of the wetland sites within Victoria surveyed for the study. A large
concentration of the sites was in or around the city of Melbourne.
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Results

Common Eastern Froglet

Each species observed produced very different results; for example, the detectability of
Common Eastern Froglet was found to be impacted mostly by temperature and the effort put into
the surveying process, both of which proved to have p-values less than 0.05 (Table 1 & 2). As
seen in Figure 1, increases in temperature resulted in lower detection probability for this species,
while Figure 2 shows a positive correlation between survey effort and detectability. Based on the
latter positive relationship, it was determined that 3 surveys would be required for 95%
confidence, if 100 minutes were spent surveying (Figure 3).

Table 1. The results of the model selection test for the Common Eastern Froglet species. A
combination of temperature and effort variables proved to be the most supported model.

Model nPars AIC Delta AIC


weight
psi(.)p(temperature + effort) 4 378.32 0.000 0.3333
psi(.)p(temperature) 3 378.40 0.084 0.3196
psi(.)p(had_rained +temperature) 4 379.64 1.321 0.1722
psi(.)p(temperature+effort+had_rained 5 379.99 1.676 0.1441
)
psi(.)p(humidity) 3 384.07 5.751 0.0188
psi(.)p(had_rained) 3 387.00 8.678 0.0043
psi(.)p(wind_speed) 3 388.25 9.929 0.0023
psi(.)p(effort +had_rained) 4 388.26 9.943 0.0023
psi(.)p(effort) 3 388.75 10.436 0.0018
psi(.)p(was_raining) 3 389.55 11.231 0.0012

Table 2. The results of the model combining temperature and effort detection variables, showing
that temperature was highly significant.

Estimate SE Z P(>|z|)
Occupancy: 0.257 0.241 1.07 0.286
Detection:
(Intercept) 2.31042 0.67071 3.44 0.000572
Temperature -0.11891 0.03470 -3.43 0.000611
Effort 0.00676 0.00478 1.42 0.157030
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AIC: 378.3186

0.9 Effect of temperature on detection probability


D etection probability

0.7
0.5
0.3

5 10 15 20 25 30

Temperature °C
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Figure 1. Line graph depicting the effects of temperature on detection probability for Common
Eastern Froglets. The dotted lines represent the upper and lower confidence intervals.

Effect of effort on detection probability


D etection probability

0.75
0.65
0.55

0 50 100 150

Effort Min.

Figure 2. Graph depicting the relationship between effort (min.) and detection probability in
Common Eastern Froglets. The dotted lines represent the upper and lower confidence intervals.
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Probability of detection given number of surveys at 100 min. of effort


0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
C um ulative probability

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of surveys

Figure 3. Graph depicting that if 100 min. was spent surveying, a total of only 3 surveys would
need to be completed to reach 95% confidence in detection.

Spotted Marsh Frog

For this species, the best fit model included a combination of the effort put into the
survey process and whether the area had recently experienced rainfall, which both expressed p-
values less than 0.05 (Table 3 & 4). Additionally, an increase in surveying effort proved to
provide an increase in detection probability (Figure 5), something that was further enhanced by
the impacts of previous rainfall which showed a higher probability, as well (Figure 4). Figures 7
shows the number of surveys needed for 95% confidence, based on both variables included,
showing that 5 surveys total would suffice with previous recent rainfall and 100 minutes of
survey time.

Table 3. The model selection results for the Spotted Marsh Frog. A combination of effort (min.)
and previous rain proved to be the best fitting model for this species.

Model nPars AIC Delta AIC


weight
psi(.)p(effort+had_rained) 4 270.20 0.0000 0.249
psi(.)p(effort) 3 270.21 0.0035 0.249
psi(.)p(had_rained) 3 271.89 1.6901 0.107
psi(.)p(temperature+effort) 4 271.91 1.7034 0.106
psi(.)p(temperature+effort+had_rained 5 272.16 1.9632 0.093
)
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psi(.)p(wind_speed) 3 272.56 2.3614 0.076


psi(.)p(had_rained+temperature) 4 273.89 3.6900 0.039
psi(.)p(was_raining) 3 274.17 3.9696 0.034
psi(.)p(humidity) 3 274.96 4.7618 0.023
psi(.)p(temperature) 3 275.00 4.7957 0.023

Table 4. The results of the model that included a combination of previous rainfall and effort,
showing that both detection variables were highly significant in detection probability.

Estimate SE z P(>|z|)
Occupancy: -0.0432 0.336 -0.129 0.898
Detection:
(Intercept) -1.6839 0.43180 -3.90 9.63e-05
Had_rained 0.5236 0.36802 1.42 1.55e-01
Effort 0.0112 0.00581 1.92 5.45e-02

AIC: 270.2018
D e te c tio n P ro b a b ility

0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 1 .0

0 50 100 150

Effort (min.)

Figure 4. A depiction of the impact that previous rainfall has on detection probability, when
combined with effort. The solid line represents the detection probability with no rainfall, while
the dotted line shows the increase in probability that rainfall creates.
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Effect of effort on detection probability


D e te ctio n p ro b a b ility

0 .6
0 .5
0 .4
0 .3
0 .2

0 50 100 150

Effort min.

Figure 6. The positive correlation between effort (min.) and detection probability is depicted
here. The dotted lines represent the upper and lower confidence intervals.
D e te c tio n P ro b a b ility

0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 1 .0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of Surveys

Figure 7. Graph showing the amount of surveys needed to give 95% confidence of species
detection given that there was previous rainfall and the site was surveyed for 100 minutes. This
number is 5 total surveys. The dotted line shows the amount of surveys needed with no rainfall,
while the solid lines represents the probability provided that there has been rainfall.
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Southern Banjo Frog

This final species was proven to be impacted most by a combination of temperature and
wind speed, both of which exhibited P-values less than 0.05 (Table 5 & 6). An increase in
temperature resulted in lower probability of detection; however, higher wind speeds led to more
likelihood of species detection, as seen in Figures 8 and 9. Finally, the number of surveys
required for 95% confidence based upon wind speed was determined to be a total of 3 surveys
conducted with wind speeds of about 30 km/h (Figure 10).

Table 5. The results of the model selection process for the Southern Banjo Frog, showing that a
combination of temperature and wind speed was the best fit model.

Model nPars AIC Delta AIC


weight
psi(.)p(temperature+wind_speed) 4 264.8 0.00 0.64078
4
psi(.)p(wind_speed+had_rained+temperature 5 266.3 1.56 0.29430
) 9
psi(.)p(wind_speed +had_rained) 4 271.0 6.21 0.02875
4
psi(.)p(wind_speed) 3 271.1 6.28 0.02774
2
psi(.)p(temperature+had_rained) 4 275.9 11.15 0.00243
9
psi(.)p(temperature) 3 276.6 11.80 0.00176
3
psi(.)p(temperature+effort) 4 276.9 12.14 0.00148
8
psi(.)p(temperature+effort+had_rained) 5 277.3 12.52 0.00122
6
psi(.)p(had_rained) 3 278.1 13.30 0.00083
4
psi(.)p(had_rained +effort) 4 279.8 15.04 0.00035
8
psi(.)p(humidity) 3 281.5 16.72 0.00015
6
psi(.)p(effort) 3 281.6 16.81 0.00014
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5
psi(.)p(was_raining) 3 282.8 17.97 0.00008
1

Table 6. The results of a model combining the temperature and wind speed detection variables,
showing that both variables were significant factors for the Southern Banjo Frog.

Estimate SE Z P(>|z|)
Occupancy: -0.419 0.278 -1.51 0.132

Detection:
(Intercept) 0.6885 0.7948 0.866 0.38638
Temperature -0.1187 0.0434 -2.735 0.00623
Wind_speed 0.0694 0.0214 3.242 0.00119

AIC: 264.8367

Effect of temperature on detection probability


D e te c tio n p ro b a b ility

0 .7
0 .5
0 .3
0 .1

5 10 15 20 25 30

Temperature °C

Figure 8. Graph depicting the negative correlation between temperature and detection
probability when surveying. The dotted lines represent the upper and lower confidence intervals.
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Effect of wind speed on detection probability


D e te c tio n p ro b a b ility

0 .8
0 .6
0 .4
0 .2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Wind speed

Figure 9. Graph depicting the relationship between wind speed and the probability of species
detection, with the dotted lines representing the upper and lower confidence intervals.

Detection probability given number of surveys with 30 km/h wind speed


0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
C umulative probability

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Number of surveys

Figure 10. This graph shows the number of surveys needed to give 95% confidence of
detectability with wind speeds of 30 km/h. This number is 3 total surveys.

Discussion

Overall, the results of this study proved that each species observed requires varying
conditions to fully optimize their detection probability. The three species each showed that the
most impactful variables when surveying were a combination of temperature, rainfall, effort, and
wind speed, all of which can be monitored in order to create efficient surveying methods. With
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this information, further research can be done on conservation efforts, management plans, and
the impacts of urbanization.

The Common Eastern Froglet provided results showing that the most significant
surveying factors on this species are temperature and effort, essentially meaning the total time
spent conducting the survey and the number of surveys completed. Upon further analysis it was
determined that temperature had a negative effect on detection probability, which can be
explained by the ectothermic nature of amphibians and aligns with the findings of Heard, who
saw that this species had higher probability for calling in the colder spring and winter months
(Heard et al., 2006). Additionally, this frog species is commonly found in southeastern Australia,
an area that typically experiences cooler temperatures, so it’s logical to assume that these frogs
would prefer the cooler months. Combining this with the evidence that the more effort put into
surveying means a higher probability that the species will be detected, backs up the prediction
that only 3 surveys are necessary to conclude 95% confidence of the frog’s presence in the area,
assuming that the appropriate effort is put into the survey. This information allows for future
surveys to become more accurate if these stipulations are followed, something that is especially
important when beginning to design management plans that benefit the entire community
surrounding the habitat location (MacKenzie & Royle, 2005).

The next species observed and analyzed was the Spotted Marsh Frog, which was found to
be most influenced by the effort put into the survey process and whether or not it had previously
rained, both of which were positively correlated with an increase in detection probability. This
species is known to be quick to move into new wetlands in the event of recent floods or heavy
rains, which heavily supports the notion that previous rain in an area will lead to greater
probability of detecting the species (Wilson et al., 2013). In addition to this, the Spotted Marsh
Frog calls year-round, stopping in the summer months, meaning that these frogs call mainly
during the wet months, further supporting their apparent preference of areas that have recently
experienced rainfall, as this creates a moist environment (Wilson et al., 2013). Both of these
variables were analyzed to determine the minimum survey conduction number of 6, assuming
that both conditions are again sustained at the ideal values. The detection of species distribution
and abundance is often imperfect; however, using the data collected from these surveys to
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improve the probability of species detection in the future allows for more reliable research results
(Kellner & Swihart, 2014).

Finally, the Southern Banjo Frog was the last species to be focused on, from which it was
seen that this species experienced the most significant impacts from both temperature and wind
speed, which was a surprising result due to the species’ tendency to burrow into the ground
without proper rainfall, as this caused the assumption that rainfall would hold significance
(Raftery et al., 1993). Similar to the Common Eastern Froglet, this species is found in southern
Australia and is exposed to cooler temperatures year-round, something that supports the evidence
showing that lower temperatures lead to higher detectability (Raftery et al., 1993). Additionally,
southern Australia has higher average wind speeds than northern Australia, meaning that that
covariate is another environmental factor that this species has grown accustomed too. Since the
frogs are more used to cooler temperatures and higher wind speeds, it’s logical to assume that
conducting surveys with those conditions in mind would lead to better results. After conducting
more analytical tests, it was found that a minimum of 3 surveys would be needed to produce 95%
confidence of the species’ presence, provided that the wind speeds are around 30 km/h at the
time of survey. With this information, future surveys could be conducted that would provide
unbiased, precise results; rather than the alternative which leads to imperfect information and
observations and inhibits the ability to design efficient plans for management (Raftery et al.,
1993).

In conclusion, designing and conducting occupancy surveys to evaluate ecology and


environments is a practice that has been occurring for a long time, as a means to observe species
distribution and abundance, impacts on communities by environmental and anthropogenic forces,
and ecological processes. However, the appropriate steps need to be taken, and conditions need
to be met, in order to ensure that the surveys are fully optimizing detection probability for each
of the species involved.
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Reference List:

Heard, G.W., Robertson, P. and Scroggie, M.P., 2006. Assessing detection probabilities for the
endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) in southern Victoria. Wildlife
Research, 33(7), pp.557-564.

Kellner, K.F. and Swihart, R.K., 2014. Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a
quantitative review. PloS one, 9(10).

Lemckert, F., 2000. Parasitism of the common eastern froglet Crinia signifera by flies of the
genus Batrachomyia (Diptera: Chloropidae): Parasitism rates and the influence on frog
condition. Australian Zoologist, 31(3), pp.492-495.

MacKenzie, D.I. and Royle, J.A., 2005. Designing occupancy studies: general advice and
allocating survey effort. Journal of applied Ecology, 42(6), pp.1105-1114.

Raftery, M.J., Bradford, A.M., Bowie, J.H., Wallace, J.C. and Tyler, M.J., 1993. Peptides from
Australian frogs. The structures of the dynastins from the banjo frogs Limnodynastes interioris,
Limnodynastes dumerilii and Limnodynastes terraereginae. Australian Journal of
Chemistry, 46(6), pp.833-842.

Tsuji, M., Ushimaru, A., Osawa, T. and Mitsuhashi, H., 2011. Paddy-associated frog declines via
urbanization: a test of the dispersal-dependent-decline hypothesis. Landscape and Urban
Planning, 103(3-4), pp.318-325.

Wilson, J.N., Bekessy, S., Parris, K.M., Gordon, A., Heard, G.W. and Wintle, B.A., 2013.
Impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes
tasmaniensis). Austral Ecology, 38(1), pp.11-22.

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