Models of Traffic Flow

Fundamentals of Traffic Flow
Macroscopic relationships among

traffic stream parameters
 Flow: q
 Density: k
PART 2:Models of Traffic Flow  Speed: u

Microscopic view of traffic flow:

Time headway: h

Random process according to some
probability distribution

Probability Distribution Probability Distribution

Many transportation events are
Discrete probability distributions:

non-deterministic (i.e., one cannot  Poisson
ascertain exactly the nature such as  Binomial
time and value)  Geometric

One can only describe such
Continuous probability distributions:
 Uniform
characteristics using probability
 Negative Exponential
distributions
 Normal
 Lognormal

1
Poisson Distribution Poisson Distribution

One of such model that describes ( λ t ) n e − λt

the traffic arrival patterns is the
Poisson distribution

The Poisson distribution:
 Is a discrete distribution
 Is commonly referred to as ‘counting
distribution’
 Represents the count distribution of
random events
P ( n) =
n!

P (n) = probability of having n vehicles arrive in
time interval t

λ = average arrival rate in vehicles per unit time

n = no of vehicles arriving in a specific time
interval

t = duration of time interval over which vehicles
are counted

e = base of the natural logarithm

Poisson Distribution Example

An observer counts 360 veh/h at specific highway location.

Properties of Poisson distribution Assuming that the arrival of vehicles at this highway location
is Poisson distributed, estimate the probability of 2 or more

Mean µ=tλ vehicles arriving over a 20-second time interval.

Variance σ2 = tλ
Flow = 360 veh/h = 0.1 veh/sec

Variance/mean ratio = 1 P(0) =

(λt )n e −λt
=
(0.1 × 20) 0 e −0.1( 20 )
= 0.135
n! 0!

P(1) =
(λt ) e = (0.1× 20)1 e −0.1( 20) = 0.271
n − λt

n! 1!
P(n ≥ 2) = 1 − P(0) − P(1) = 1 − 0.135 − 0.271 = 0.594

2
 Example Example

Consider a 1-hour traffic volume of 120 vehicles, during
Probability of exactly n vehicles No. of 1-min intervals with
which the analyst is interested in obtaining the arriving in 1-min interval exactly n vehicle arrivals
distribution of 1 minute volume counts

λ = (120 veh/h) / (3600 sec/hr) = 0.0333 veh/s 21 e −2 2 × 0.1353 × 60 min = 16.24

P (1) = = = 0.2707

λt = 0.0333 veh/sec ×60 sec = 2 veh 1! 1
2 2 e −2 4 × 0.1353 × 60 min = 16.24

λ = (120 veh/hr) / (60 min/hr) = 2 veh/min P ( 2) = = = 0.2707
2! 2

λt = 2 veh/min × 1 min = 2 veh 2 3 e − 2 8 × 0.1353
P (3) = = = 0.1804 × 60 min = 10.82
3! 6
2 0 e −2 1 × 0.1353
P (0) = = = 0.1353
0! 1

Example Negative Exponential Distribution

n pmf cdf Freq

The assumption of Poisson distributed vehicle arrivals also implies
0 0.1353 0.1353 8.12
a distribution of the time intervals between the arrivals of
1 0.2707 0.4060 16.24 successive vehicles (i.e., time headway)
2 0.2707 0.6767 16.24
To demonstrate this, let the average arrival rate, λ, be in units of
vehicles per second, so that
3 0.1804 0.8571 10.82

4 0.0902 0.9473 5.41 q veh/h veh

5 0.0361 0.9834 2.17
λ= =
6 0.0120 0.9954 0.72
3600 sec/h sec
7 0.0034 0.9988 0.20
Substituting into Poisson equation yields
8 0.0009 0.9997 0.05
n − qt
 qt  3600
  e
9 0.0002 0.9999 0.01

10 0.0000 0.9999 0.00

P(n) =  3600 
n!

3
 Negative Exponential Distribution

Note that the probability of having no vehicles arrive
in a time interval of length t [i.e. P(0)] is equivalent
to the probability of a vehicle headway, h, being
greater that or equal to the time interval t.
− qt
Limitations of Poisson Distribution

Most realistic in lightly congested traffic
conditions

Primary limitation: mean equals the
variance

P ( 0) = P ( h ≥ t ) =
(1)e 3600 − qt

= e 3600

If the variance is significantly greater or
lesser than the mean, other distributions
1 should be used (e.g., the negative
binomial distribution for congested traffic

This distribution of vehicle headways is known as
conditions.
the negative exponential distribution