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THEORY OF DECISIONS
MARIANA PAREDES
TUTOR
ANDREA DEL PILAR LOPEZ
UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA
CEAD AGUACHICA
PROGRAMA DE INGENIERÍA INDUSTRIAL
06 DE OCTUBRE 2020
EXERCISE 1 PROBABILITIES OF A GIVEN EVENT
Suppose you have three dice which are not altered, this assumes fair play and the odds of any one of
their heads coming out are equal. When rolling the three dice, you must determine that:
Solution
There is only one way to get six in all (6,6,6)and if we consider that there is
6^3=216 different ways three dice can roll, then:
𝑃(6_1∩6_2∩6_3 )=1/216
Here are the ways the dice can fall, where the sum of the points is seven:
1 1 5
1 2 4
1 3 3
1 4 2
1 5 1
2 1 4
2 2 3
2 3 2
2 4 1
3 1 3
3 2 2
3 3 1
4 1 2
4 2 1
5 1 1
And with this list, we realize that there are 15 different ways for the sum to be 7,
then the sought probability is:
𝑃(𝑠=7)=15/216=5/72
Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations.
Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that satisfies the following systems of equation
1. Y = -3X + 5
2. Y = 3X + 2
Solution
𝑦=3𝑥+2
x y 𝑦=3𝑥+2 𝑦=3(1)+2
0 2 𝑦=3(0)+2 𝑦=3+2
1 5 𝑦=2 𝑦=5
𝑥=0.5
ollowing systems of equations:
Exercise 3. Operations with matrices.
The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix multiplication is
very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m)
solve the product of them.
Exercise 3.1
𝐵=■8(0.3&0.4&0.3@0.5&0.3&0.2@0.3&0.3&0.4)
1. 𝐴=[0.1 0.3 0.6]
Exercise 3.2
2. 𝐴= 𝐵=■8(0.3&0.5&0.2@0.1&0.3&0.6@0.2&0.3&0.5)
■8(0.5&0.3&0.2@0.1
&0.4&0.5@0.4&0.3&0.
3)
𝐴∗𝐵=■8(0.22&0.40&0.38@0.
17&0.32&0.51@0.21&0.38&0.
41)
REFERENCES BIBLIOGRAPHICAL
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live&scope=site&ebv=EB&ppid= pp_C
Reino Unido: editorial de john wiley & sons (págs. 69-82). Obtenido de
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url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?
direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=323407&lang=es&site=ehost-live