ThinkHQ Survey On Calgary's Direction

OCTOBER 19, 2020
For Immediate Release
A P LURALITY OF C ALGARIANS
B ELIEVE THE C ITY IS ON THE
“ W RONG T RACK”
M EDIA R ELEASE: C OUNTDOWN TO

T HE C ALGARY M UNICIPAL E LECTION
2021
Copyright © 2020 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner
whatsoever, without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.
A Plurality of Calgarians Believe the City is on the
“Wrong Track”
With a municipal election now less than a year away, there is a prevailing sense of
unease among voters about the direction The City of Calgary is headed today.
According to a recent ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey of over 1,200 Calgary residents,
fully 43% believe the city is on the “Wrong Track” right now, compared to 36% who feel
it is on the “Right Track”, and another 21% who are unsure.
Calgary’s battered economy is undoubtedly influencing public sentiment on the city’s
direction, with a resounding eight-in-ten (80%) of those interviewed characterizing the
local economic conditions as weak compared to only 16% suggesting any degree of
strength today.
CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

Copyright © 2020 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved. www.thinkhq.com | 2
Right Track - Wrong Track
Municipal politicians and aspiring politicians may find some hostility on the doors over
the course of the next year of campaigning, with a plurality of voters saying they feel
the city is on the wrong track. This pessimism is also considerably more intense than
optimism, with one-fifth (21%) of voters saying the city is “Definitely on the Wrong
Track” compared to only 5% who maintain it is “Definitely on the Right Track”.
• Right Track Voters: More commonly women, those under the age of 35, inner city
and northeast residents, newcomers to Calgary, renters, those living in multi-family
housing, and provincial NDP supporters
• Wrong Track Voters: Highest proportions among men, those over 55 years of age
(increasing with age), more affluent, homeowners (particularly those in single family
homes), those with the longest tenure of residency in the city, and provincial UCP
supporters

Local Economic Strength
Economically, Calgary is not in a good place right now, and Calgarians know it. Voters
overwhelmingly believe the economy is weak today (80% overall, with 36% saying
“Very weak”).
• Perceptions of economic weakness tend to increase with age, income, tenure of
residence in the city, and movement of left-to-right on the provincial political
spectrum
• Additionally, homeowners (particularly SFHs), residents of established communities,
and those who do not use public transit are more likely to rate the city’s economy as
weak right now
• Residents of the northwest and southeast are most “bearish” on the local economy,
while residents of the northeast are somewhat less negative

Commentary
Commenting on the survey, ThinkHQ Public Affairs, Inc. president Marc Henry notes:
“We’re 364 days from the election and there are still a lot of unknowns, but it has the
potential to one of the more interesting municipal campaigns in recent memory. Even
at this very early stage, we know there will be significant turnover on Council, with a
number of current councillors indicating they won’t be seeking re-election. We’re not
sure of Mayor Nenshi’s intentions just yet, but if he runs for re-election, he’s already
got at least one serious contender in Councillor Jeromy Farkas.
What we do know is that voters are not in a particularly hospitable mood at the
moment, which generally signals a tougher time for incumbents. There is considerable
dissatisfaction about where the city is going today. We’re also at or near the bottom of
an economic rollercoaster in Alberta, and economic anxiety in Calgary is palpable at
the moment with few encouraging signals on the horizon.
If this mood persists, look for issues like spending and finance, economic development
and business climate and taxes, fees and levies to be very much top-of-mind concerns
for voters in 2021, while traditional municipal issues such as infrastructure, transit, and
growth management will take more of a backseat.”

Views on City of Calgary Direction
"Generally speaking, do you think the City of Calgary is on the right track or wrong
track right now?"
Definitely right track 5%

Right Track
36%
Somewhat right track 31% Net Right Track:
-7
Somewhat wrong track 22%
Wrong Track
43%
Definitely wrong track 21%
Unsure 21%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
NET Right Track: Right Track minus Wrong Track | Base: All respondents (n=1,237)

By Gender, Age and Household Income
"Generally speaking, do you think the City of Calgary is on the right track or wrong track right now?"
Definitely right track Somewhat right Unsure Somewhat wrong Definitely wrong track NET
Right Track
TOTAL (n=1,237) 5% 31% 21% 22% 21% -7
Right track: 36% Wrong track: 43%
GENDER
Male (n=612) 6% 27% 16% 22% 29% -18
Female (n=625) 4% 36% 24% 22% 13% +5
AGE
<35 yrs (n=385) 8% 44% 20% 16% 13% +23
35-54 yrs (n=486) 5% 28% 20% 27% 20% -14
55+ yrs (n=366) 23% 20% 23% 30% -27
HH INCOME
<$75K (n=427) 6% 37% 18% 22% 17% +4
$75-$124K (n=351) 5% 36% 19% 18% 21% +2
$125K+ (n=268) 5% 22% 18% 28% 26% -27
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
NET Right Track: Right Track minus Wrong Track | Base: All respondents

By Current Quadrant and Community Type
Right Track
TOTAL (n=1,237) 5% 31% 21% 22% 21% -7
QUADRANT
NW (n=361) 30% 20% 25% 23% -15
SW (n=349) 7% 31% 18% 22% 23% -7

SE (n=300) 31% 23% 21% 23% -11

NE (n=228) 10% 35% 21% 21% 14% +10

COMMUNITY
New/Sub (n=500) 6% 33% 21% 23% 18% -2
Established (n=508) 4% 27% 21% 23% 26% -18

Inner City (n=189) 8% 40% 14% 20% 19% +9

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By Home Ownership, Housing Type and Tenure in Calgary
Right Track
TOTAL (n=1,237) 5% 31% 21% 22% 21% -7
OWNERSHIP
Owners (n=887) 5% 28% 21% 23% 23% -13
Renters (n=278) 6% 39% 19% 20% 16% +9
HOUSING TYPE
SFH (n=828) 4% 29% 21% 23% 23% -13
Multi (n=370) 8% 35% 18% 21% 19% +3
YEARS IN YYC
5 or less (n=134) 8% 53% 19% 14% 7% +40
6 to 20 (n=386) 7% 33% 23% 22% 14% +4

21 or more (n=717) 4% 26% 19% 24% 27% -21
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By Views on Calgary Economy and Last Provincial Vote
Right Track
TOTAL (n=1,237) 5% 31% 21% 22% 21% -7

YYC ECONOMY
Strong (n=203) 19% 53% 18% 7% +63

Weak (n=990) 27% 19% 26% 26% -23

LAST PROV. VOTE
UCP (n=491) 18% 18% 28% 34% -42

NDP (n=290) 9% 46% 18% 19% 7% +29

ABP (n=84)* 6% 26% 22% 18% 28% -14

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
*Caution: Small sample size NET Right Track: Right Track minus Wrong Track | Base: All respondents

Economic Evaluation of Calgary
"How would you personally rate the local economy in Calgary today? Is Calgary’s
economy…?"
Very strong 1%
Strong
16%
Fairly strong 15% Net Strong:
-64
Fairly weak 44%
Weak
80%
Very weak 36%
Unsure 4%
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents (n=1,237)

By Gender, Age and Household Income
"How would you personally rate the local economy in Calgary today? Is Calgary’s economy…?"
Very strong Fairly strong Unsure Fairly weak Very weak NET
Strong
TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64
Strong: 16% Weak: 80%
GENDER
Male (n=612) 16% 42% 39% -64
Female (n=625) 14% 5% 47% 32% -63
AGE
<35 yrs (n=385) 25% 5% 38% 30% -40
35-54 yrs (n=486) 11% 49% 36% -74
55+ yrs (n=366) 10% 46% 41% -77
HH INCOME
<$75K (n=427) 19% 42% 35% -55
$75-$124K (n=351) 16% 47% 33% -63
$125K+ (n=268) 10% 47% 40% -75
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

By Current Quadrant and Community Type
Strong
TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64
QUADRANT
NW (n=361) 12% 49% 34% -70
SW (n=349) 16% 42% 38% -63

SE (n=300) 11% 46% 38% -72

NE (n=228) 24% 40% 29% -42

COMMUNITY
New/Sub (n=500) 20% 42% 33% -53
Established (n=508) 11% 49% 36% -73

Inner City (n=189) 18% 41% 39% -62

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By Tenure in Calgary and Commute Type
Strong
TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

YEARS IN YYC
5 or less (n=134) 26% 49% 19% -39
6 to 20 (n=386) 20% 5% 42% 31% -51

21 or more (n=717) 10% 45% 41% -75

COMMUTE
Drive (n=570) 16% 47% 33% -63
Transit (n=188) 23% 36% 37% -48

None (n=152) 11% 5% 47% 36% -71

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By Home Ownership and Housing Type
Strong
TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

OWNERSHIP
Owners (n=887) 12% 48% 35% -70
Renters (n=278) 22% 35% 37% -49

HOUSING TYPE
SFH (n=828) 13% 47% 36% -69
Multi (n=370) 20% 39% 36% -53

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

By Views on City Direction and Last Provincial Vote
Strong
TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

DIRECTION
Right track (n=451) 30% 48% 17% -32
Wrong track (n=536) 38% 57% -92

Unsure (n=250) 14% 11% 52% 23% -61

LAST PROV. VOTE

UCP (n=491) 7% 43% 47% -82
NDP (n=290) 15% 54% 26% -64

ABP (n=84)* 25% 33% 36% -43

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
*Caution: Small sample size NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

Research Methodology
• Study fielded with adult Calgarians (residing in Calgary Proper), via an

online research panel
− Field dates: September 8 - 12, 2020
− Panel source: MARU Voice Canada
• n=1,237
• Weighted to reflect gender, age and region of the Calgary population
according to Stats Canada
• A random stratified sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey
from the MARU Voice Canada panel. The margin of error for a comparable
probability-based random sample of this size is +/- 2.8 percentage points,
19 times out of 20
• Accuracy of sub-samples of the data decline based on sample sizes

Regional Sample Sizes and Margins of Error
Calgary Region Total Interviews Total Interviews Margin of Error*

Unweighted Weighted
CALGARY TOTAL n=1,237 n=1,237 +/- 2.8 percentage points

Northwest n=354 n=361 +/- 5.2 percentage points
Southwest n=388 n=349 +/- 5.0 percentage points
Southeast n=293 n=300 +/- 5.7 percentage points
Northeast n=202 n=228 +/- 6.9 percentage points
New / Suburb n=464 n=500 +/- 4.6 percentage points
Established Community n=548 n=508 +/- 4.2 percentage points
Inner City n=190 n=189 +/- 7.1 percentage points
*NOTE: The margin of error is associated with a probability sample of this size

FOR MORE INFORMATION, CONTACT:
Marc Henry, President
ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc.
marc@thinkhq.com
Copyright © 2020 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

The contents of this document are the exclusive property of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc., and may not be used in any manner whatsoever,
without the prior written consent of ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. No license under any copyright is hereby granted or implied.

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OCTOBER 19, 2020

For Immediate Release

M EDIA R ELEASE: C OUNTDOWN TO

Copyright © 2020 ThinkHQ Public Affairs Inc. All rights reserved

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

Definitely right track 5%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

SW (n=349) 7% 31% 18% 22% 23% -7

SE (n=300) 31% 23% 21% 23% -11

NE (n=228) 10% 35% 21% 21% 14% +10

Established (n=508) 4% 27% 21% 23% 26% -18

Inner City (n=189) 8% 40% 14% 20% 19% +9

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

6 to 20 (n=386) 7% 33% 23% 22% 14% +4

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

TOTAL (n=1,237) 5% 31% 21% 22% 21% -7

Strong (n=203) 19% 53% 18% 7% +63

Weak (n=990) 27% 19% 26% 26% -23

LAST PROV. VOTE

UCP (n=491) 18% 18% 28% 34% -42

NDP (n=290) 9% 46% 18% 19% 7% +29

ABP (n=84)* 6% 26% 22% 18% 28% -14

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents (n=1,237)

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

SW (n=349) 16% 42% 38% -63

SE (n=300) 11% 46% 38% -72

NE (n=228) 24% 40% 29% -42

Established (n=508) 11% 49% 36% -73

Inner City (n=189) 18% 41% 39% -62

NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

6 to 20 (n=386) 20% 5% 42% 31% -51

21 or more (n=717) 10% 45% 41% -75

Transit (n=188) 23% 36% 37% -48

None (n=152) 11% 5% 47% 36% -71

NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

Renters (n=278) 22% 35% 37% -49

Multi (n=370) 20% 39% 36% -53

NET Strong: Strong minus Weak | Base: All respondents

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

TOTAL (n=1,237) 15% 44% 36% -64

Wrong track (n=536) 38% 57% -92

Unsure (n=250) 14% 11% 52% 23% -61

LAST PROV. VOTE

NDP (n=290) 15% 54% 26% -64

ABP (n=84)* 25% 33% 36% -43

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

• Study fielded with adult Calgarians (residing in Calgary Proper), via an

CONFIDENTIAL: Media Release - October 19, 2020

Calgary Region Total Interviews Total Interviews Margin of Error*

CALGARY TOTAL n=1,237 n=1,237 +/- 2.8 percentage points