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Telecom MNP EFFECT
Not enough of a Game Changer! Sector Update
Date: 8th December, 2010 MNP (Mobile Number Portability) is the service that allows a subscriber to shift from one service
Analyst:
provider to another without changing his/her original mobile at a minimal charge (` 19 in India).
Adesh Doifode However, it requires a period of 4 days for completion of porting of mobile number except in J&K,
adesh.doifode@networthdirect.com Assam and North East where it will be 12 days. In India it has started in Haryana from 25 November
Tel No.: 022 3028 6399
2010 and would be launched in pan India by 20 January 2010. It is expected that the MNP effect will be
mixture of various aspects in India. Because considering different perspective of present Indian
Associate: telecom sector, it shows that there will be partial impact of MNP in the market.
Siddharth Deshmukh
Tel No.: 022 3028 1576 Indian Telecom market comprises of ~ more than 91% prepaid subscribers and already this segment
is having annual churn rate from 50‐70%. Hence, there will not be any big move in this segment.
Though, the postpaid segment which is ~ 9% or less of total subscriber’s base in India and contributes
around 20% of overall subscriber’s revenue would be expected to have higher churning rate as
compared to present rate of 12‐24%. With this point of view small players or new entrants would try to
shift these high end customers from large players towards their arena by providing special facilities and
low tariff plans for them. Hence, this may lead to further tariff war in terms of voice and data usage.
However it is only possible if such high end customers are unhappy with their present operators
regarding quality of services and network. Therefore with rise of MNP all operators are trying to
improve the quality of services so as to retain their subscriber’s especially high end users. However,
such high end users will not be attracted much by low tariffs because their mobile usage expense is
much lower as compared to disposable income and that is why they would like to remain stick with
their present operators.
The 3G launch will also play an important role in churning, as all those players who have not received
3G spectrum (i.e. new entrants) will face shifting of their subscribers towards the operators providing
3G services (i.e. large players). Since, 3G services will provide better voice quality, lower dropped calls
and improved network along with enriched VAS experience which will be enough to attract high end
subscribers. With launch of 3G by most number of private operators PSU operators like MTNL and
BSNL may observe substantial shift of subscribers mainly because of its poor quality service
experience.
In case of CDMA subscribers MNP is going to hit more due to boundaries of limited number of mobile
handset (i.e. limited featured phone) as compared to those available for GSM mode and in CDMA
there are only 3 operators in India as compared to those are in GSM (i.e. 15 service providers). Hence,
wide variety of services available for subscribers in GSM from tariff to VAS etc.
To grab the opportunity through MNP telco’s have started aggressive promotions & marketing
campaigns along with fresh offerings for new customers, such as:
Idea started the advertisement “switch to Idea” and is also providing many attractive offers as
well.
Tata DoCoMo has launched a section on Mobile Number Portability. The offers include free talk‐
time and Free 3G services usage.
BSNL is also offering free talk time of Rs. 100, and free unlimited GPRS for a month.
Sector Update Networth Research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson 1
Expected MNP Impact on Major Telecom Players:
Operator Spectrum VAS Comments MNP Impact
900MHz 1800MHz 3G
Andhra Pradesh Gujarat Andhra Pradesh Common VAS‐ Airtel has acquired 3G spectrum in its
Karnataka, TN Maharashtra Karnataka Internet/GPRS, entertainment (music, A/V & caller all circles where it is operating at 900
Punjab, Rajasthan Haryana Tamil Nadu tunes), bill info, mail & messaging/chats, astrology, Mhz, which will improve its quality of
UP (E) & (W) Kerala Uttar Pradesh (W) travel, devotinal, confrencing, social networking, service. VAS contributes around 12.7% of
Airtel West Bengal Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan games, daily tips & alerts, matrimony , jobs, news, its revenues and helps to improve its NEUTRAL
Assam, Bihar Mumbai West Bengal finance and sports etc. ARPU. Reduction in high end customers
Orissa, Delhi North East Assam, Bihar Some Unique Services‐ post MNP can reduce its contribution
Kolkata, J&K Delhi, Mumbai Daily@5, m‐commerce, celebrity‐chat, airtel blog, towards VAS. Advertising
Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh airtel‐talkies, airtel mobile campus etc. expenditure(new 'Avatar') will help to
North East, J&K retain its customers.
900MHz 1800MHz 3G
Gujarat Andhra pradesh Common VAS‐
Gujarat, Haryana Vodafone has good customer support
Maharashtra Karnataka Tamil Nadu Internet/GPRS, entertainment (music, A/V & caller and large gallery network apart from its
Tamil Nadu Punjab tunes), bill info, mail & msg/chats, astrology, travel,
Uttar Pradesh (E) good connectivity and VAS services,
Vodafone Haryana Rajasthan West Bengal devotional, conferencing, social networking, games, which can attract high end customers.
Kerala, Mumbai Madhya Pradesh Kolkata daily tips & alerts, jobs, news, finance & sports etc. VAS revenue has increased by 1.82% (Q‐ NEUTRAL
Uttar Pradesh (E) Mumbai, Orissa Delhi, Mumbai Some Unique Services‐ o‐Q) in Q2FY11. Vodafone can lose hig h
West Bengal Uttar Pradesh (W) Maharashtra Live counseling, m‐commerce (m‐banking), ask me, end customers due to 3G spectrum in
Delhi, Kolkata Assam, Bihar television details, m‐ shop, book tickets, pay utility only 9 circles and can also reduce its
bills & insurance premiums, portfolio tracker etc. VAS contribution from current 10.7%.
900MHz 1800MHz 3G Common VAS‐ Idea being a nearly new player in many
Andhra pradesh Assam Andhra Pradesh Pocket Internet/GPRS, entertainment (music, A/V & of its cirles is likely to benefit post MNP.
Gujrat, Punjab Bihar Tamil Nadu caller tunes), voice based services ,mail & msg/chats, Its aggressive advertising campaign will
Karnataka Orissa, Delhi Uttar Pradesh (W) subscription services, conferencing, social networking, surely reap benefits to acquire high end
Idea Maharashtra West Bengal Rajasthan games, daily tips & alerts, jobs , matrimony, news, customers and large number of post‐ POSITIVE
Haryana Mumbai, Kolkata West Bengal finance and sports etc. paid customers. Thus current VAS
Uttar Pradesh (W) Tamil Nadu Assam, Mumbai Some unique services‐ Idea TV, match making, live contribution of 12.9% of its revenues is
Kerala, Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh(E) Bihar, Delhi counseling, idea talkies, enquiries, phone backup, likely to improve further.
Madhya Pradesh Himachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh portfolio manager & sms‐conferencing.
900MHz 1800MHz 3G Common VAS‐ Apart from the first mover advantage in
Gujrat, Haryana Gujarat Internet/GPRS‐buddy net, entertainment (music, A/V & 3G launch by private player, aggressive
Maharashtra Karnataka caller tunes), mail & messaging‐buddy chats, pricing and advertising will attract more
Kerala, Delhi Uttar Pradesh (W) astrology, travel, devotional, games, conferencing, subscribers. Unique and reasonable VAS
Madhya Pradesh Haryana social networking, daily tips & alerts, jobs, news, services can attract high end as well as POSITIVE
Mumbai, Orissa Kerala finance and sports etc. new subscribers. Its focus on VAS and
Tata Tele Andhra pradesh Madhya Pradesh Some unique services‐ unique 3G services will boost further
Services Karnataka, Assam Punjab Free‐voicemail, timed sms & missed call alerts, pay per subscriber and revenue growth. It may
Tamil Nadu Rajasthan site, push 4 mails, m commerce etc. lose on to its CDMA subscribers but will
Punjab, Bihar Maharashtra 3G services‐ mobile TV, gaming, social networking, not impact its ARPU significantly.
Rajasthan, Kolkata video & music on demand, market mobile applications,
UP (E) & (W) tips & alerts, 3G video sms, docomics, 3G video calling.
West Bengal
900MHz 1800MHz 3G
Madhya Pradesh Gujarat, Mumbai Madhya Pradesh Common VAS Shift of its CDMA customers may impact
West Bengal Maharashtra Rajasthan, Assam Internet/GPRS, entertainment (music, A/V & caller revenues marginally in the short term
Assam Haryana, Kerala West Bengal tunes), bill info, mail & msg/chats, astrology, travel, but considering its low ARPU of Rs 122
Bihar Andhra pradesh Bihar, North East devotional, conferencing, social networking, games, is likely to improve post MNP. VAS
R Com Orissa Karnataka, Kolkata Delhi, Mumbai daily tips & alerts, jobs, news, finance, and sports etc. provide around 13% in current revenue
J&K Rajasthan, Punjab Kolkata, Orissa Some Unique Services‐ which will improve further with addition POSITIVE
North East UP (E) & (W) Punjab, J&K R‐world, infotainment and info services, VAS packs, of high end customers. It will attract
Himachal Pradesh Uttar Pradesh (W) Himachal Pradesh classifieds, mobile road direction, and sms more customers and more VAS revenues
Delhi, Tamil Nadu conferencing etc. from 3G launch in 13 circles and being
core sponsors of Cricket World Cup‐
900MHz 1800MHz 3G
Tamil Nadu Andhra pradesh Andhra Pradesh Common VAS‐ Aircel's ARPU being low around Rs 94,
Assam Karnataka Karnataka, Bihar Pocket Internet/GPRS, entertainment (music, A/V & MNP will not have any negative impact
J&K Kerala Tamil Nadu, Assam caller tunes), voice station, mail & messaging/chats, on ARPU and revenues. Aircel too has 3G
North East Kolkata West Bengal, J&K subscription services, conferencing, social networking, spectrum in good number of circles NEUTRAL
Aircel Orissa Orissa, North East games, daily tips & alerts, news, finance & sports etc. which can be the next trigger for
Bihar, Punjab Uttar Pradesh(E) Some Unique Services‐ subscriber addition and ARPU growth.
West Bengal Kolkata, Punjab Dialer tune cards, doctor on call, movie partner, PVR,
Uttar Pradesh(E) Kerala blyk on aircel and aircel pocket applications etc.
Sector Update 2
Key reasons for (MNP) Churning (in %)
35%
30%
30%
25%
20%
18%
15%
15%
10%
6% 9% 10%
5%
5% 2% 1% 2% 2%
0%
Source: Neilson Survey, Networth Research
MNP Effect at Initial Stage:
The initial reaction of the introduction of MNP in Haryana indicates minimal churn in early days but Haryana
circle represents only 1% of the total subscriber base and may not give a right indication. Less than 2% prepaid
subscribers and 4%‐5% postpaid subscribers in Haryana circle are expected to opt for MNP noting the current
porting requests in 14 days. Tata Teleservices have got about 21% of the customers who have opted for MNP
while for RCom out of the total movement on postpaid, 80% are port in (those who want to join RCom). In value
terms, this is 73% of the total value of port‐ins and port‐outs (those who wish to leave RCom) put together.
RCom has been concentrating on getting only high paying post‐paid customers as ARPU in this category is
equivalent to 10 pre‐paid subscribers while Vodafone Essar is assertive on retaining existing customers and
attracting fresh high end customers. Post pan‐India MNP launch we might get a better view of its effects on
different service providers and 3G launch at the same time would also play important role in MNP.
Sector Update 3
Networth Research: E‐mail‐ research@networthdirect.com
Adesh Doifode Telecom & Metals adesh.doifode@networthdirect.com 022‐30286399
Dimple Khetan Banking & Midcaps dimple.khetan@networthdirect.com 022‐30281685
Jinal Savla Power jinal.savla@networthdirect.com 022‐30281684
Minal Dedhia Midcaps minal.dedhia@networthdirect.com 011‐47399812
Derivatives & Technical Research
Akshata Deshmukh AVP Technical & Derivatives Analyst akshata.deshmukh@networthdirect.com 022‐30286405
Kekin Maru Derivatives Analyst kekin.maru@networthdirect.com 022‐30286406
Institution Sales dealing@networthdirect.com
Prakash Diwan Head‐ Institutional Business prakash.diwan@networthdirect.com 022‐30286408
Viral Malia AVP Institutional Sales viral.malia@networthdirect.com 022‐30286407
Key to NETWORTH Investment Rankings
Buy: Upside by>15, Accumulate: Upside by +5 to 15, Hold: Upside/Downside by ‐5 to +5, Reduce: Downside by 5 to 15, Sell: Downside by>15
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Sector Update 4