Pressupostos

Preço 70 Inicio 12/31/2020

Quantidades 95 Fin 12/31/2028
Inflação 10%
Crscimento das Vendas 4%
Investimento 5200
Wacc 11% 11% 11% 11%
CMVC 20% 23% 23% 25%
Custos Com Pessoal 30% 25% 25% 30%
Custos Operacionais 10% 15% 10% 10%
Amortizaçoes & Dep 25% 25% 25% 25%
Tax 25% 25% 25% 25%

2020 2021 2022

Vendas 7,608 7,900 8,193
CMVC 1,750 1,817 2,048
Custos Com Pessoal 1,902 1,975 2,458
Custos Operacionais 1,141 790 819
Amortizaçoes & Dep 1,902 1,975 2,048

EBITDA 2,815 3,318 2,867

EBITDA Margin 37% 42% 35%
EBITDA 28,078
EBIT 913 1,343 819
EBIT Margin 12% 17% 10%
Tax 228 336 205

PAT/EAT 685 1,007 614

PAT/EAT Margin 9% 13% 7%

NPV Analysis
Cash Flows 2,587 2,982 2,663

1 2 3
Coeficiente 0.900901 0.81162243 0.731191

Cash Flows Act -5200 2,330 2,421 1,947

Cash Flows Acm. 2,330 4,751 6,698
PV= 15,769
NPV= 10,569
Investimento 5200
Wacc 11%
TIR/IRR 37%
Investimento -5,200

PRI inv 9
s(cash-flow)
PRI = 3

Cenários Analysis

Sensitivity Analys Analysis

NPV Analysis
WACC
10,569 21% 19% 17%
4,900 6,104 6,854 7,691
5,200 5,804 6,554 7,391
5,500 5,504 6,254 7,091
Investimento

5,800 5,204 5,954 6,791

6,100 4,904 5,654 6,491
6,400 4,604 5,354 6,191
6,700 4,304 5,054 5,891
7,000 4,004 4,754 5,591
7,300 3,704 4,454 5,291

Pay Back Analysis

WACC
3 21% 19% 17%
4,900 4 4 4
5,200 4 4 4
5,500 4 4 4
Investimento

5,800 5 4 4
6,100 5 5 4
6,400 5 5 5
6,700 5 5 5
7,000 6 5 5
7,300 6 6 5
 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%
25% 25% 25% 35% 35% 35%
30% 30% 22% 22% 22% 22%
12% 12% 12% 11% 9% 9%
25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

8,485 8,778 9,071 9,363 9,656 9,948
2,121 2,195 2,268 3,277 3,380 3,482
2,546 2,633 1,996 2,060 2,124 2,189
1,018 1,053 1,088 1,030 869 895
2,121 2,195 2,268 2,341 2,414 2,487

2,800 2,897 3,719 2,996 3,283 3,382

33% 33% 41% 32% 34% 34%

679 702 1,451 655 869 895

8% 8% 16% 7% 9% 9%
170 176 363 164 217 224

509 527 1,088 492 652 672

6% 6% 12% 5% 7% 7%

2,630 2,721 3,356 2,832 3,066 3,159

4 5 6 7 8 9
0.658731 0.593451 0.534641 0.481658 0.433926 0.390925

1,733 1,615 1,794 1,364 1,330 1,235

8,430 10,045 11,840 13,204 14,534 15,769
PV Analysis TIR Ana

15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 0 100

8,628 9,681 10,869 12,215 13,745 15,493 6,600 43%
8,328 9,381 10,569 11,915 13,445 15,193 6,400 45%
8,028 9,081 10,269 11,615 13,145 14,893 6,200 46%

Investimento
7,728 8,781 9,969 11,315 12,845 14,593 6,000 48%
7,428 8,481 9,669 11,015 12,545 14,293 5,800 50%
7,128 8,181 9,369 10,715 12,245 13,993 5,600 53%
6,828 7,881 9,069 10,415 11,945 13,693 5,400 55%
6,528 7,581 8,769 10,115 11,645 13,393 5,200 57%
6,228 7,281 8,469 9,815 11,345 13,093 5,000 60%

Back Analysis NPV Ana

15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% 10,569 1%

3 3 3 3 2 2 6,200 7,858
3 3 3 3 3 2 6,000 8,058
4 3 3 3 3 2 5,800 8,258
Investimento

4 4 3 3 3 3 5,600 8,458
4 4 3 3 3 3 5,400 8,658
4 4 4 3 3 3 5,200 8,858
4 4 4 4 3 3 5,000 9,058
5 4 4 4 3 3 4,800 9,258
5 5 4 4 4 3 4,600 9,458
 TIR Analysis
PREÇO
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20
37% 32% 26% 20% 14% 8% 1% -8%
39% 33% 27% 21% 15% 9% 1% -7%
41% 35% 29% 23% 16% 9% 2% -7%
42% 36% 30% 24% 17% 10% 3% -6%
44% 38% 32% 25% 18% 11% 4% -5%
46% 40% 33% 27% 20% 12% 4% -5%
48% 42% 35% 28% 21% 13% 5% -4%
51% 44% 37% 30% 22% 15% 6% -3%
53% 46% 39% 31% 24% 16% 7% -2%

NPV Analysis
Taxa Crescimento
2% 3% 4% 5% 7% 8% 9% 10%
8,486 9,113 9,740 10,367 10,994 11,622 12,249 12,876
8,686 9,313 9,940 10,567 11,194 11,822 12,449 13,076
8,886 9,513 10,140 10,767 11,394 12,022 12,649 13,276
9,086 9,713 10,340 10,967 11,594 12,222 12,849 13,476
9,286 9,913 10,540 11,167 11,794 12,422 13,049 13,676
9,486 10,113 10,740 11,367 11,994 12,622 13,249 13,876
9,686 10,313 10,940 11,567 12,194 12,822 13,449 14,076
9,886 10,513 11,140 11,767 12,394 13,022 13,649 14,276
10,086 10,713 11,340 11,967 12,594 13,222 13,849 14,476