Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur

Department of Industrial and Management Engineering

MBA651: Quantitative Methods for Decision Making

Practice Problems
Basic Probability, Conditional Probability, Independent Events, Bayes Theorem

1) Suppose you drive on a certain freeway daily. Speed limit is 65km/hr. You drive over
65km/hr all the time, but over 75km/hr about 30% of the time.
P(ticket | over 75) = 0.02
P(ticket | 65 to 75) = .005.
What is the probability you get a ticket on a randomly selected day?

2) A pair of fair 6-sided dice is rolled. What is the probability that a 2 is rolled if it is
known that the sum of the numbers landing uppermost is less than or equal to 7?
(Give answers as an exact fraction.)

3) A company surveyed 1000 people on their age and the number of jeans purchased
annually. The results of the poll are shown in the table.
0 1 2 3 or More Total
Under 12 0 70 76 64 210
12-18 17 54 154 55 280
19-25 39 57 137 51 280
Over 25 59 81 69 21 230
Total 115 262 432 191 1000

A person is selected at random. Use the table to answer these questions. Round your
answers to three decimal places.
a) What is the probability that the person, who is over 18, purchases 2 pairs of jeans
annually?
b) What is the probability that a person who purchased less than 3 pairs of jeans
each year will be in the age group 12-18?

4) Two machines turn out all the products in a factory, with the first machine producing
75% of the product and the second 25%. The first machine produces defective products
5% of the time and the second machine 7% of the time.
a) What is the probability that a defective part is produced at this factory given
that it was made on the first machine?
b) What is the probability that a defective part is produced at this factory?

5) The personnel department of Franklin National Life Insurance compiled the

accompanying data regarding the income and education of its employees.

Income £60,000 or Below Income Above £60,000

Noncollege Graduate 2050 830
College Graduate 380 740

Dr. Faiz Hamid

 Let A be the event that a randomly chosen employee has a college degree, and let B
be the event that the chosen employee’s income is more than $60, 000.
a) Find each of the following probabilities.
P(A), P(B), P(A ∩ B), P(B|A), P(B|Ac)
b) Are the events A and B independent events?

6) An experiment consists of two independent trials. The outcomes of the first trial are
A, B, and C, with probabilities of occurring equal to 0.2, 0.2, and 0.6, respectively. The
outcomes of the second trial are E and F, with probabilities of occurring equal to 0.3
and 0.7. Draw a tree diagram representing this experiment. Use this tree diagram to
find the probabilities below.
a) P(B)
b) P(F|B)
c) P(B ∩ F)
d) P(F)
e) Does P(B ∩ F) = P(B) · P(F) ?
f) Are B and F independent events?

7) Box I contain 3 red and 5 white balls, while Box II contains 4 red and 2 white balls. A
ball is chosen at random from the first box and placed in the second box without
observing its color. Then a ball is drawn from the second box. Find the probability that
it is white.

8) Box I contain 3 red and 2 blue marbles while Box II contains 2 red and 8 blue marbles.
A fair coin is tossed. If the coin turns up heads, a marble is chosen from Box I; if it
turns up tails, a marble is chosen from Box II. Find the probability that a red marble
is chosen.

9) Suppose in Problem 8 that the one who tosses the coin does not reveal whether it has
turned up heads or tails (so that the box from which a marble was chosen is not
revealed) but does reveal that a red marble was chosen. What is the probability that
Box I was chosen (i.e., the coin turned up heads)?

10) A box contains 3 blue and 2 red marbles while another box contains 2 blue and 5 red
marbles. A marble drawn at random from one of the boxes turns out to be blue. What
is the probability that it came from the first box?

11) Each of three identical jewelry boxes has two drawers. In each drawer of the first box
there is a gold watch. In each drawer of the second box there is a silver watch. In one
drawer of the third box there is a gold watch while in the other there is a silver watch.
If we select a box at random, open one of the drawers and find it to contain a silver
watch, what is the probability that the other drawer has the gold watch?

12) Urn I has 2 white and 3 black balls; Urn II, 4 white and 1 black; and Urn III, 3 white
and 4 black. An urn is selected at random and a ball drawn at random is found to be
white. Find the probability that Urn I was selected.

Dr. Faiz Hamid

 13) A box contains 5 red and 4 white marbles. Two marbles are drawn successively from
the box without replacement, and it is noted that the second one is white. What is the
probability that the first is also white?

14) An inefficient secretary places n different letters into n differently addressed

envelopes at random. Find the probability that at least one of the letters will arrive
at the proper destination.

15) Two cards are drawn successively from an ordinary deck of 52 well-shuffled cards.
Find the probability that
a) the first card is not a ten of clubs or an ace
b) the first card is an ace but the second is not
c) at least one card is a diamond
d) the cards are not of the same suit
e) not more than 1 card is a picture card (jack, queen, king)
f) the second card is not a picture card
g) the second card is not a picture card given that the first was a picture card
h) the cards are picture cards or spades or both

Dr. Faiz Hamid