Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
environment
2
2
Good development in 2010 continued
Solid earnings contribution from the Germany, Central Eastern and South
Eastern Europe, Upstream Gas & Oil and Netherlands/Belgium Divisions
3
Uncertainties from nuclear debate put our mid-term
outlook for 2012/13 under review
ew
EBITDA No guidance 9,165 above 2009
Operating result 6,826
r r
CAGR + ca. 5%
Und
Recurrent net income 3,367 CAGR + ca. 5% 3,532 above 2009
> We expect the nuclear fuel tax to have a significant impact on our EBITDA, operating
result and recurrent net income
> Our financial headroom for investments would be consequently reduced to stay in line
with our leverage target which we assume corresponds to an A-flat rating
> Therefore, the introduction of a nuclear fuel tax would significantly influence our
earnings and cash flows and hence, our dividend, CAPEX and growth potential
4
Our strategy to reduce the impact of CO2
on our P&L in 2013
(As of February 2010. Mid-term targets are under review; announced in August 2010)
Essent
2008-12 2013-20 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Small M&A
1 Excluding Essent; Essent has CO2 emissions of approx. 8 to 10 million tons p.a.
5
Continuous investment commitment:
€28 bn capex programme 2010 – 2013
(As of February 2010. Mid-term targets are under review; announced in August 2010)
€7.0 bn
p.a.
+/- 10% Committed capex
Other €100m p.a.
95% 80%
Upstream €1,000m p.a.
55% 50%
2010 – 2013
6
Essent further increases robustness of our portfolio –
integration is well underway
Generation Retail
Essent’s stand-alone
> Increased exposure to EBIT and EBITDA CAGR > Integration of RWE’s Dutch
flexible mid-merit portfolio customer portfolio into
2008 – 2012 of
> Transfer of Eemshaven Essent
approximately 10%
project to Essent > Elimination of parallel client
> Application of biomass service systems
co-firing expertise to ROCE ≥ 9.5% > Cost savings from combined
RWE power plants from 2012 onwards marketing and branding
efforts
Gross synergies
Renewables €135m Supply & Trading
> Joint operation of wind €100m > Standardisation of trading
assets by RWE Innogy and risk management
> Streamlining of combined systems
development pipeline > Central management of gas
> Leveraging of RWE Innogy’s 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 procurement portfolios and
component framework storage flexibility
agreements for Essent
projects
7
Growing number of cancellations increases
efficiency gap and value of our new-build projects
8
Strategy for fossil fired generation:
growth, higher flexibility, less CO2 emissions
Comparison of ramp capacities New hard coal-fired 1,600 MW plant –
(old and new hard coal / CCGT) 2 flexible 800 MW units for mid-merit regime
MW
Hard coal Old New
Max. cap. Max.
~600 cap.
MW ~800 MW
800 Min. cap. Min.
~420cap.
MW ~200 MW
Max. gradient Max.
+/- 8 MW/min
gradient +/- 27 MW/min
600
200
CCGT Old New
Max. cap. ~420
Max. MW
cap. ~875 MW
Min. cap. ~168
Min. cap.
MW ~260 MW1 Minutes
Max. gradient +/-
Max.
10 gradient
MW/min +/- 38 MW/min
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Source: RWE. 1 One turbine gets turned off.
9
Power plant new build programme: making good
progress
Renewables Projects (RWE Innogy) Conventional New Builds (Power, npower, Essent)
Offshore Wind Germany Germany
> Nordsee Ost (295 MW): > Neurath (2 x 1,050 MW): First
Bremerhaven chosen as offshore compression test in June
base port in May 2010; contract successfully completed, BoA 2&3
for supply of foundations signed will go online mid/end of 2011
in June 2010, construction due to > Hamm (1,560 MW): Problems with
start in 2011 steel construction of boiler solved
Offshore Wind UK UK
> Greater Gabbard (504 MW; 50% > Staythorpe (1,650 MW): The four
share): first electricity production units of the CCGT will be
expected to start by the end of commissioned successively
2010, fully operational in 2012 between end of August and end of
> Gwynt y Môr (576 MW; 60% November 2010
share): onshore works started, Netherlands
offshore construction begins in
> Moerdijk (426 MW): CCGT project
2011, completion in 2014
on track for completion and within
Biomass USA budget
> Construction started on the > Claus C (1,304 MW): Project
world’s largest biomass pellet ahead of schedule, important
production plant in Georgia/USA, milestone of physically connecting
production capacity of 750,000 the greenfield gas turbines and the
t/year brownfield steam turbine reached
10
...as are our projects in gas upstream and midstream
Azerbaijan
UK
Turkmenistan
> Breagh (7.0 mmboe2): project on
track, development intensified to Nabucco pipeline
take up production in 2012 RWE pipelines
Iraq
RWE customer markets
x.x Number of RWE customers Egypt Saudi
Potential gas sources for Nabucco Arabia
11
Compared to the marginal plant RWE‘s portfolio is already
today financially slightly long CO2
Pass-through factor
> Factor by which CO2 price is reflected
t/MWh in power price
0,9
> Set by marginal plants which on average have a
0,8 higher emission factor than the market portfolio
0,7 Long
RWE specific emission factor
0,6 Shortfall > RWE’s portfolio is financially long CO2
0,2
0,1
Marginal plants RWE Market portfolio
0
Current 2013 2020
12
Managing CO2: We complement physical measures
by comprehensive financial optimisation
> Our large low carbon new-build programme as well as our investments in renewables will lead
to substantial improvement of our CO2 intensity until 2013
> For phase 3 (2013-2020) we aim to reach a “market average” position in terms of our exposure
to changes in CO2 prices
Specific CO2 emissions exposure (t/MWh)
0.80
0.67
Market
New builds average
and shut Renew- CDM/JI
Portfolio
ables New
downs2 optimisation Renew-
builds 0.45
ables Shut
downs/ Portfolio
lower optimisation
load factor
1 Assumes standardised load factors for RWE portfolio including Essent based on commodity price levels and power demand in 2007-2009
2 Conventional new builds currently under construction and agreed plant shut down; assumes nuclear lifetime extension
13
Physical measures: New-build projects can reduce
our CO2 exposure by some 14 % by 2013
CO2 reduction
by 2013
Shutdowns /
New-build projects load factor reductions Relative Absolute
Lingen 887 MW 0.34t/MWh Fossil mix 4 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.41 t/MWh -2 m t p.a.
BoA Neurath 2,100 MW 0.95t/MWh Lignite 2,160 MW 1.35t/MWh -0.40 t/MWh -6 m t p.a.
Hamm 1,528 MW 0.74t/MWh Fossil mix 10 TWh 0.75t/MWh >0 t/MWh >0 m t p.a.
Staythorpe 1,650 MW 0.35t/MWh Fossil mix 8 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.40 t/MWh -3 m t p.a.
Pembroke 2,188 MW 0.34t/MWh Fossil mix 10 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.41 t/MWh -4 m t p.a.
Moerdijk 426 MW 0.35t/MWh Fossil mix 2 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.40 t/MWh -1 m t p.a.
Claus C 1,304 MW 0.35t/MWh Fossil mix 6 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.40 t/MWh -2 m t p.a.
Eemshaven 1,560 MW 0.59t/MWh1 Fossil mix 11 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.16 t/MWh -2 m t p.a.
Renewables 2,000 MW 0.00t/MWh Fossil mix 7 TWh 0.75t/MWh -0.75 t/MWh -5 m t p.a.
14
Non-physical measures: Balancing CO2 risks
CDM/JI > Allowance to cover up to 100 million tons via CDM/JI projects
> Secured projects to procure 75 million tons of CO2 (44 million tons of CO2
adjusted for project risks)
> Average achieved project price below current market price for Certified Emission
Reductions (CERs)
Portfolio Asset swaps > Swap of generation assets to improve fuel and load mix:
optimisation – e.g. swap of lignite/hard coal capacity against hydro
capacity
Long term > Long-term supply contracts with full transfer of CO2 position:
supply – 2013 – 2020 lignite based supply contract (264 MW)
contracts – 2013 – 2037 lignite based supply contract (110 MW)
15
Maximising commercial value through asset
optimisation of generation capabilities
Forward Asset
Selling Optimisation
> Overall hedge > Optimise commercial > Integrated optimisation of power plant
strategy and availability of plants flexibility
policy
> Maximise efficiencies and > Asset-backed trading team working
minimise cost alongside proprietary desks
> Position gradually > Daily “make or buy” decision
transferred to RWE Supply depending on spot prices and spreads
& Trading
16
Forward selling1 by RWE Power in the German market
(Base-load forwards in €/MWh)
100
90
2010 forward
80
70
60
50
40
> 10% sold > 40% sold > 60% sold > 90% sold > 90% sold
30
100
90
2011 forward
80
70
60
50
40
> 20% sold > 50% sold > 70% sold > 80% sold > 85% sold
30
100
90
2012 forward
80
70
60
50
40
> 10% sold > 25% sold > 30% sold > 35% sold > 40% sold
30
100
90
2013 forward
80
70
60
50
40
30
01/01/2007 07/01/2007 01/01/2008 07/01/2008 01/01/2009 07/01/2009 01/01/2010 07/01/2010 01/01/2011
(average realised price for 2008 forward: €58/MWh, for 2009 forward: €70/MWh)
1 Forward prices until November 8, 2010; hedge ratio as of Sept. 30, 2010.
17
Asset optimisation: Realising a premium
to the forward price
As the generation fleet margin has already been secured via forward selling, we can
decide every day if we produce the contracted power at the locked-in spread or buy
the power in the market instead
An illustrative example
RWE sold forward Q1 2010 power generation Now, in Q1 2010 the prices
from hard coal units in Q2 2008 of power and fuels have changed
Power sold forward at 70€/MWh Power price 40€/MWh
Hard coal costs locked in at 40€/MWh Hard coal costs 30€/MWh
CO2 costs locked in at 20€/MWh CO2 costs 15€/MWh
Locked-in Clean Dark Spread +10€/MWh Spot Clean Dark Spread -5€/MWh
(power plant is out of the money)
18
RWE’s gas procurement portfolio is only partly
exposed to the gas-to-oil spread
Long-term oil-indexed purchase
contracts (take-or-pay)
approx.
50 bcm
p.a. 16% Germany
TTF
> Our gas procurement portfolio is solely managed by RWE Supply & Trading
> ~54% or 27 bcm of overall gas procurement based on long-term oil-indexed purchase
contracts
– of which ~16 bcm have a gas-to-oil spread exposure in 2010 which is expected to
increase to ~20bcm in the coming years
19
Development of TTF gas price and brent oil price
since January 2009
(EUR/MWh)
35 4
2
30
0
25 -2
2011
20 -4
-6
15 -8
10 -10
-12
5
-14
0 -16
Nov. 09
Nov. 10
Jan. 09
Feb. 09
Jun. 09
Jul. 09
Aug. 09
Okt. 09
Dez. 09
Jan. 10
Feb. 10
Jun. 10
Jul. 10
Aug. 10
Okt. 10
Mai. 09
Apr. 09
Sep. 09
Mai. 10
Apr. 10
Sep. 10
Mrz. 09
Mrz. 10
35 4
2
30
0
25 -2
Delta Crude Brent (in EUR, indexed) TTF forw ard
-4
2012
20
-6
15 -8
10 -10
-12
5
-14
0 -16
Nov 09
Nov 10
Jan 09
Feb 09
Jun 09
Jul 09
Aug 09
Okt 09
Dez 09
Jan 10
Feb 10
Jun 10
Jul 10
Aug 10
Okt 10
Apr 09
Mai 09
Sep 09
Apr 10
Mai 10
Sep 10
Mrz 09
Mrz 10
Spread Crude Brent (in EUR, norm alised to TTF) TTF forw ard
Relative development of the TTF and brent forwards for the years 2011 and 2012 since January 1, 2009. To compare both, the brent oil price
is normalised to the TTF gas price as of January 1, 2009. The curves simply illustrate the development of the market prices which should
give a rough indication about the gas-to-oil-spread situation. The real gas-to-oil-spread exposure depends on the individual contract details
and will deviate from this slide.
20
Outlook 2010
2009 2010
€ million forecast
EBITDA 9,165 +5 – 10%
Operating result 7,090 +ca. 5%
Recurrent net income 3,532 +ca. 5%
Payout ratio of 50 – 60%
Dividend € 3.50
of net recurrent income
Capex on fixed assets €bn 5.9 ca. 6.5
Net debt €bn 25.8 +ca. € 5 bn
21
Always be informed about RWE…
To be always updated, please have a look at our webpage www.rwe.com/investorrelations
> Calendar
http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/110614/rwe/investor-relations/calendar/
> Furthermore you can find more Fact book specials under the above link:
> Prospective Impact of economic downturn on electricity demand in Europe
> Incentive Regulation
> Power Generation in Europe
> Renewable Energy
> RWE Dea
> RWE as seen by analysts (overview of latest analyst earnings estimates)
http://www.rwe.com/web/cms/en/109506/rwe/investor-relations/shares/rwe-as-seen-by-analysts/
22