NATALIA

VOLGINA
Doctor of Economics, Professor
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia -
RUDN University
!

“Agricultural and Rural Development
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!
!

in Russia: Past, Present and Future”

俄罗斯农业农村发展：
过去，现在和未来

“Symposium of Naiman Rural Revitaliza@on Strategy
Planning”
an interna(onal conference co-hosted
by Na(onal Science Founda(on of China,
Inner Mongolia University for Na(onali(es,
Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,
and the People’s Government of Naiman County, Tongliao City
September 27, 2020 (online)
An outline of the presenta@on 演讲概要
•  Past: from Soviet Union to Russia
过去：从苏联到俄罗斯
•  Present: a snapshot of Russian agriculture
现在：俄罗斯农业概况
•  SWOT analysis of modern Russian agriculture
现代俄罗斯农业的SWOT分析
–  Strengths 优势
–  Weaknesses 劣势
–  Opportuni(es 机遇
–  Threats 威胁
•  Future: policy implica(ons
未来：政策影响
 From Soviet Union to Russia
从苏联到俄罗斯
•  A long way from a planned economy to a market one.
从计划经济到市场经济经历了很长一段时间。
•  A substan(al contrac(on of agriculture: by the end of the 1990s
total agricultural output had fallen.
农业大量收缩：到1990年代末，农业总产量下降。
•  Since 1998 – step-by step revival of Russian agriculture (post-Soviet
reforms) despite many difficul(es and obstacles.
自1998年以来-尽管有许多困难和障碍，但俄罗斯农业逐步
复兴（后苏联改革）。
•  Till now problems in Russian agriculture have their roots in Soviet
legacy. 到目前为止，俄罗斯农业中的问题源于苏联时期的遗留。

•  A snapshot of Russian agriculture.

俄罗斯农业概况
GDP ($1700 bn): composi@on by sector of origin Most important agricultural
Agriculture: 4.7% products: grain, sugar beets,
Industry: 32.4% sunflower seeds, vegetables,
Services: 62.3% fruits; beef, milk

YoY GDP
growth in
agriculture –
3% since
2015

Agricultural
lands occupy
13% of the
territory of
Russia

The popula@on of the Russian Labour force (76.53 million) by occupa@on:

Federa(on is approximately 146.8 Agriculture: 9.4% (more than 6 mln people)
million. Industry: 27.6%
Roughly 25% of the popula(on lives Services: 63.0%
in rural areas.
 SWOT analysis of Russian agriculture
俄罗斯农业的SWOT分析
Strengths of Russian agriculture Opportuni@es of Russian
俄罗斯农业的优势 agriculture 俄罗斯农业的机遇
S1 – unique combina(on of natural O1 – grain/wheat produc(on
resources自然资源的独特组合 谷物/小麦生产
S2 – predominance of large agricultural O2 – wheat exports: Southern district
producers大型农业生产者的优势 小麦出口：南部地区
S3 – agroholdings in Russian agro- O3 – integra(on into the wheat GVC
industrial complex 整合到小麦GVC中
俄罗斯农工综合体中的农业控股公司
Weaknesses of Russian Threats of Russian agriculture
agriculture 俄罗斯农业的劣势 俄罗斯农业的威胁
W1 – climate factors 气候因素 T1 – low finance, including FDI
W2 – low produc(vity 低生产率 低融资，包括外国直接投资
T2 – rural depopula(on
W3 – low availability of agricultural 农村人口减少
machinery 农业机械利用率低 T3 – environmental threats 环境威胁
 Strengths of Russian agriculture
俄罗斯农业的优势
•  S1 – unique combina(on of natural resources
•  S2 – predominance of large agricultural
producers
•  S3 – agroholdings in Russian agro-industrial
complex

•  S1 –自然资源的独特组合
•  S2 –大型农业生产者的优势
•  S3 –俄罗斯农工综合体中的农业控股公司
 S1 – Unique combina@on of natural
resources for agriculture
优势1 –自然资源的独特组合
•  Russia enjoys a unique combina(on of natural
resources for development of agriculture:
–  with about 9% of the world’s arable land,
–  40% of the world’s most fer(le land (black humus soil),
and
–  20% of the world’s fresh water reserves being
concentrated here.
•  俄罗斯享有独特的自然资源，可以促进农业发展：
–  拥有世界约9％的耕地，
–  世界上最肥沃的土地（黑腐殖质土壤）的40％，以及
–  世界上20％的淡水储量都集中在这里。
 S2 – predominance of large
agricultural producers
优势2 –大型农业生产者的优势
•  Three major kinds of agricultural producers have operated in Russia since the collapse
of the Soviet Union:
•  1) former state and collec(ve farms, which the Russian sta(s(cs call agricultural
organiza(ons;
•  2) household of ci(zens or household plots, and
•  3) peasant (farm) household or private family farms.
•  Agricultural enterprises are large corporate farms that control (2018) around 66.7% of
country’s agricultural land compared with 2.9% for household plots and 30.4% for
private family farms.
•  Agricultural enterprises generate around 60% of agricultural produc(on (see Table 1).
•  自苏联解体以来，俄罗斯有三种主要的农业生产者：
•  1）前国家和集体农场，俄罗斯统计资料称其为农业组织；
•  2）公民家庭或家庭土地，以及
•  3）农民（农场）家庭或私人家庭农场。
•  农业企业是大型企业农场，控制着（2018年）该国农业用地的约66.7％，相比之
下，家庭耕地占2.9％，私人家庭农场占30.4％。
•  农业企业约占农业生产的60％（见表1）。
 Table 1. Structure of agricultural produc@on by
type of enterprise (%)
表1.不同企业类型的农业生产结构（％）
1992 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019

Enterprises of all types 100 100 100 100 100 100

各类企业
Agricultural organiza(ons 67.1 45.2 44.6 44.8 54.0 58.2
农业组织
Households of ci(zens 31.8 51.6 49.3 48.0 34.5 28.2
公民家庭
Peasant (farm) households 1.1 3.2 6.1 7.2 11.5 13.6
农民（农场）家庭

Russia in Figures, 2020, table 17.2. Rosstat

 S3 – agroholdings in Russian agro-
industrial complex
优势3 – 俄罗斯农工综合体中的农业控股公司
•  Among agricultural organiza(ons the most important are so called agroholdings –
(very) large ver(cally integrated commercial farms.
•  在农业组织中，最重要的就是所谓的农业控股公司-（非常）大型的垂直整合的
商业农场。
•  Agroholdings are established, owned, or controlled by en((es whose core business is
outside primary agriculture.农业控股公司由核心业务在农业之外的实体建立、拥
有或控制。
•  Agroholdings now control approximately 15-20% of the arable land in Russia, employ
thousands of workers.
现在，农业控股公司控制着俄罗斯约15-20％的耕地，雇佣了数千名工人。
•  For example (from 2018 ra(ng):例如（根据2018年的排名）
–  1. “Sodruzhestvo”: processing of oil crops; 加工油料作物
–  2. “Miratorg”: livestock and crop produc(on; processing;畜牧和作物生产； 加
工
–  3. “EFKO”: produc(on of refined vegetable oils and fats;生产精炼植物油脂
•  They are essen(al parts of Russian agro-industrial complex.
 Weaknesses of Russian agriculture
俄罗斯农业的劣势
•  W1 – climate factors
•  W2 – low produc(vity
•  W3 – low availability of agricultural machinery

•  W1 – 气候因素
•  W2 – 低生产率
•  W3 – 农业机械利用率低

 W1 – climate factors
劣势1 – 气候因素
• 

The harsh climate and other environmental factors significantly affect
approaches to farming.
•  Almost the en(re country is in the risky farming zone (rapid temperature
changes, rainy or very dry summers).
•  Based on its heat and humidity, Russia is far below many other countries,
including the United States, France, Germany and Great Britain, whose
agroclima(c poten(al is higher by a factor of 2.5, 2.25, 1.7 and 1.5,
respec(vely.
•  恶劣的气候和其他环境因素严重影响了耕作方式。
•  几乎整个国家都处在危险的耕种地区（温度变化快，夏天多雨或非常
干燥）。
•  根据其热量和湿度，俄罗斯远远低于许多其他国家，包括美国、法国、
德国和英国，其农业气候潜力分别高出2.5、2.25、1.7和1.5倍。
 W2 – low produc@vity
劣势2 – 低生产力
•  In the post-Soviet period growth has been a major factor in liming Russian
agriculture during the 2000s, thereby boos(ng grain exports and lowering
meat imports.
•  But nevertheless produc(vity is s(ll lower compared to other countries:
the average grain croppage in the country did not reach 30 quintals per
ha. It is significantly lower than the average index of 69 quintals per ha in
the European Union.
•  This indicates that the sector has a significant poten(al for growth.
•  在后苏联时期，增长一直是促进2000年代俄罗斯农业发展的主要因素，
从而促进了谷物出口并降低了肉类进口。
•  但是，与其他国家相比，生产力仍然较低：该国的平均谷物收成没有
达到每公顷30公担。 它大大低于欧盟每公顷69公担的平均指数。
•  这表明该产业具有巨大的增长潜力。
 W3 – low availability of agricultural
machinery 劣势3 – 农业机械利用率低
•  Most en((es and farms s(ll operate outdated agricultural machinery and
equipment, and today’s average level of equipment availability is 40-50%,
and machinery has worked 2-3 (mes longer than standard opera(onal
periods
•  The availability of equipment per unit of cul(vated area in Russia is at a
very low level and amounts to a maximum of 60% of what the process
requires.
•  As a result, high losses accompany the harves(ng process. For example,
the loss of harvested grain account for up to 30% of the crop and up to
40% for vegetables.
•  大多数单位和农场仍在使用过时的农业机械和设备，如今，设备的平
均可用性水平为40-50％，机械的工作时间比标准运行时间长了2-3
•  在俄罗斯，每单位耕地的可用设备水平非常低，最多只能满足这个过
程要求的60％。
•  结果，高损失伴随着收获过程。 例如，损失的谷物最多占农作物的
30％，蔬菜的最多可以占到40％。
 Opportuni@es of Russian agriculture
俄罗斯农业的机遇
•  O1 – grain/wheat produc(on
•  O2 – wheat exports: Southern district
•  O3 – integra(on into wheat GVC

•  O1 – 谷物/小麦生产
•  O2 –小麦出口：南部地区
•  O3 – 整合到小麦GVC中
 O1 – Grain/wheat produc@on
机遇1 – 谷物/小麦生产
•  In recent years, Russian agriculture has been one of the
fastest growing segments of the economy and grain
produc(on was a key driver of growth in the agro-industry.
•  Russia became the third world producer of wheat following
China and India.
•  Sta(s(cs show a posi(ve trend (Table 2).
•  近年来，俄罗斯的农业一直是经济中增长最快的部分之
一，谷物生产是农工业增长的主要驱动力。
•  俄罗斯成为继中国和印度之后的世界第三大小麦生产国。
•  统计数字显示出正向的趋势（表2）。
 Table 2. World Wheat Produc@on 表2. 世界小麦生产
Local marke@ng years, thousand metric tons
World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks
Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Aug

Production
Argentina 18,400 18,500 19,500 19,745 20,500
Australia 31,819 20,941 17,598 15,200 26,000
Brazil 6,730 4,264 5,428 5,200 6,800
Canada 32,140 30,377 32,201 32,348 34,000
China 133,271 134,334 131,430 133,590 136,000
Egypt 8,100 8,450 8,450 8,770 8,900
European Union 145,369 151,125 136,685 154,938 135,500
India 87,000 98,510 99,870 103,600 107,180
Iran 14,500 14,000 14,500 16,800 16,750
Kazakhstan 14,985 14,802 13,947 11,452 12,500
Pakistan 25,633 26,600 25,100 24,300 25,700
Russia 72,529 85,167 71,685 73,610 78,000
Turkey 17,250 21,000 19,000 17,500 18,500
Ukraine 26,791 26,981 25,057 29,171 27,000
Uzbekistan 6,940 6,941 6,000 6,800 6,510
Others 52,024 53,652 53,202 58,743 56,176
Subtotal 693,481 715,644 679,653 711,767 716,016
United States 62,832 47,380 51,306 52,258 50,012
World Total 756,313 763,024 730,959 764,025 766,028

Total Consumption
Algeria 10,350 10,450 10,750 10,950 10,950
Brazil 12,200 12,000 12,100 12,100 12,200
USDA. Foreign Agricultural service. Global market analysis. Wheat. September 2020.
Canada 10,671 9,029 9,144 9,262 9,700
China 119,000 121,000 125,000 126,000 130,000
O2 – Wheat exports: Southern district
机遇2 –小麦出口：南部地区
•  Con(nued growth in Russian wheat produc(on resulted in
increasing exports: now Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the
world (Table 3).
•  It was the Southern district that became the country’s dominant
wheat producer and exporter.
•  Farms in the Southern district have benefited from compara(ve
advantages in soil and climate, geography, infrastructure, and
ins(tu(ons.
•  俄罗斯小麦产量的持续增长导致出口增加：现在，俄罗斯是世
界上最大的小麦出口国（表3）。
•  南部地区成为俄罗斯主要的小麦生产者和出口者。
•  南部地区的农场受益于土壤和气候、地理、基础设施和机构方
面的比较优势。
 Table 3. World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade
July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons
2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21
Aug

TY Exports
Argentina 12,275 14,000 12,680 13,608 14,000
Australia 22,061 15,512 9,835 10,121 16,500
Canada 20,297 22,019 24,452 23,478 24,500
China 748 1,004 1,006 1,049 1,000
European Union 27,439 23,383 23,310 38,429 25,500
India 430 517 494 575 1,000
Kazakhstan 7,257 8,519 8,780 6,888 6,500
Russia 27,815 41,447 35,863 34,237 37,500
Turkey 6,177 6,218 6,215 6,173 6,600
Ukraine 18,107 17,775 16,019 21,013 18,000
Others 10,513 10,520 10,691 9,253 9,551
Subtotal 153,119 160,914 149,345 164,824 160,651
United States 29,318 23,230 26,093 26,300 27,000
World Total 182,437 184,144 175,438 191,124 187,651

TY Imports
Afghanistan 2,700 3,300 3,700 3,000 3,000
Algeria 8,414 8,172 7,515 7,116 7,000
USDA. Foreign Agricultural service. Global market analysis. Wheat. September 2020.
Bangladesh 5,556 6,472 5,100 6,750 6,600
Brazil 7,788 6,702 7,442 7,179 6,600
Federal districts of Russia Federa@on
 O3 – integra@on into the wheat GVC
机遇3 –整合到小麦GVC中
•  Most exports are transported via Black Sea and Azov Sea ports (near Southern
district).
•  Since 2000s, the Black Sea region has emerged as a major player in the wheat
global value chain (GVC). In par(cular, Russia and Ukraine have become dominant
suppliers to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) of inexpensive wheat.
•  MENA countries (Middle East: Turkey, Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen; and
North Africa: Egypt and Sudan) are currently the main export des(na(ons for
Russian wheat (more than 85%).
•  大多数出口产品通过黑海和亚速海港口（南部地区附近）运输。
•  自2000年代以来，黑海地区已成为小麦全球价值链（GVC）的主要参与者。
尤其是俄罗斯和乌克兰已成为中东和北非廉价小麦的主要供应国。
•  中东和北非国家（中东：土耳其，伊朗，黎巴嫩，沙特阿拉伯和也门；以及
北非：埃及和苏丹）目前是俄罗斯小麦的主要出口目的地（超过85％）。
Southern
district
 Threats of Russian agriculture
俄罗斯农业威胁
•  T1 – low finance, including FDI
•  T2 – rural depopula(on
•  T3 – environmental threats

•  T1 – 低融资，包括外国直接投资
•  T2 – 农村人口减少
•  T3 – 环境威胁
 T1 – Low finance, including FDI
威胁1 – 低融资，包括外国直接投资
•  The budget for agricultural policies (222 billion RUR in 2020, including 14
billion RUR for the purchase of agricultural equipment) is rela(vely small
in comparison with the world’s largest developed economies.
•  Moreover, it is basically impossible to overcome the economic recession
and, therefore, ensure Russia’s economic and food security in the future
without aorac(ng the best possible foreign investments.
•  Unfortunately, FDI inflows into Russian sector of agriculture, forestry and
fishing equaled to 0.5% of total amount of FDI.
•  与世界上最大的发达经济体相比，农业政策预算（2020年为2220亿卢
布，其中包括140亿卢布用于购买农业设备）相对较小。
•  此外，如果不吸引尽可能多的外国投资，从根本上无法克服经济衰退，
从而，不能确保俄罗斯未来的经济和粮食安全。
•  不幸的是，外国直接投资流入俄罗斯的农业、林业和渔业部门，相当
于外国直接投资总额的0.5％。
 T2 – Rural depopula@on
威胁2 – 农村人口减少
•  Rural depopula(on and the disappearance of villages in rural Russia
occurred as part of the historical process of urbaniza(on and
industrializa(on.
•  Rural depopula(on also occurred for structural reasons having to do with
village loca(on, and for behavioral reasons whereby villagers react to
primi(ve living condi(ons and poor economic prospects. The problem of
labor shortages and a deficit of highly skilled specialists is acute
throughout the agro-industrial complex.
•  Russia’s sustainable village problem is very acute.
•  俄罗斯农村人口的减少和村庄的消失是城市化和工业化历史进程的一
部分。
•  农村人口的减少也是由于结构上的原因，与村庄的位置有关，以及行
为上的原因，使村民对原始的生活条件和糟糕的经济前景做出反应。
在整个农工联合体中，劳动力短缺和高技能专家短缺的问题非常严重。
•  俄罗斯的可持续乡村问题非常严重。
 T3 – environmental threats
威胁3 – 环境威胁
•  Environmental threats are very challenging.
•  Only one example.
•  Because of erosion, 1.5 billion tons of the fer(le
soil layer are lost annually.
•  Ravines are formed as a result, which already
number over 400,000.
•  环境威胁非常具有挑战性。
•  举一个例子。
•  由于侵蚀，每年损失15亿吨肥沃的土壤层。
•  结果形成了沟壑，沟壑已经超过40万。
 Future: Policy implica@ons
未来：政策影响
•  Priority areas of government agricultural policy:
–  import subs(tu(on and food security;
–  promo(on of investment;
–  support of agricultural exports;
–  sustainable development of rural territories;
–  technical improvement of agriculture (modern agricultural fleet);
–  fair compe((on on the agricultural market.
•  政府农业政策的重点领域：
–  进口替代和粮食安全；
–  促进投资；
–  支持农产品出口；
–  农村地区的可持续发展；
–  农业技术进步（现代农业运输队伍）；
–  农产品市场上的公平竞争。
 NATALIA VOLGINA
Doctor of Economics, Professor
Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia -
RUDN University
nat_volgina@yahoo.com