Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Derek Burleton
Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist
January 2011
GLOBAL RECESSION/RECOVERY
-1
Forecast
-2
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
8 Developing Economies
Advanced Economies
-2
-4
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
(f) (f)
Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2010
Source: IMF, TD Economics
Argentina
10
South Africa
Australia
Russia
6
Saudi Arabia Brazil
France
Mexico Philippines
U.K. China
Thailand
Italy Canada Malaysia
2
Spain
Portugal U.S. Germany
-2 2 6 10 14
Ireland
Japan
-2 Real GDP Growth in 2010
China
• Raised the reserve deposit ratios on five occasions during
2010
• Raised the interest rates on deposits
• Modified lending requirement standards on real estate
operations
India
• Raised the policy interest rate 200 basis points since
February 2010
Brazil
• Raised the policy interest rate 200 basis points since March
2010
• Raised the tax rate it charges to short-term capital inflows
65
Advanced Economies
60
55
50
45
40
Emerging Markets
35
30
1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027
Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2010
Source: IMF, TD Economics
80 20
60 15
40 10
20 5
0 0
Italy Greece Portugal France Ireland U.K. Germany Spain
15
10
0
Spain Portugal Italy Greece Ireland
900
Portugal Spain
800 Italy Greece
700 Ireland
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 May-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10
6 Forecast
4 Recession
-2
-4
-6
-8
2008 2009 2010 2011F 2012F
8 1957-58
Real GDP growth 4-quarters post-trough (%)
7 1960-61 1953
6
1974-75
5 1970 1981-82
4
1980
3
2 1990-91 2008-09
1 2001
0
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5
International
U.S.
Historical Experience
-1
-2
96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
8
10-Year Government
Bond
7
5 Forecast
2
3-month T-Bill
1
0
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
*End of Period. Actual data to: Q3 2010; Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2010
Source: Federal Reserve Board / Haver Analytics
Spending
24
22
20
18
16
Revenues
14
12
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Forecast
6
-2
-4
-6
-8
2009 2010 2011 F 2012 F
130
120
115
110
105
100
95
85
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Quarters from start of recession
Source: Statistics Canada. Forecast by TD Economics as at December 2010.
1.00
0.90
0.80 Forecast
0.70
0.60
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
End-of period forecast by TD Economics as at December 2010
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
380,000
130,000 Forecast
360,000
120,000 340,000
320,000
110,000
300,000
100,000
280,000
90,000 260,000
240,000
80,000 Sales (left scale)
220,000
Average price (right scale)
70,000 200,000
Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12
160
United States
140
120
100
Canada
80
60
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
30 Forecast
20
10
-10
-20
M&E Investment
-30 Corporate Profits
-40
-50
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
3.5
Praires
3.3
2.4
Ontario
2.3
2.4
B.C. 2011
2.3
2012
2.3
Atlantic
2.5
2.1
Quebec
2.2
12 Forecast
10
All-Items CPI
8
6
Inflation Target Band
2
Core CPI*
0
-2
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13
6
Forecast
5
Bank of Canada
Target Rate
4
1
U.S. Federal
Funds Rate
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
Current* Q4 2011 Q4 2012
0.5
0.0
Overnight 3-Month 2-Year 5-Year 10-Year 30-Year
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