A China-Russia Alliance?

Lyle J. Goldstein

The scenario that must concern American defense planners above and beyond all others is that
dark, yet still rarely discussed possibility that China and Russia could somehow become engaged
in simultaneous armed conflict against the United States. While neither Moscow nor Beijing are
strong enough by themselves to go toe-to-toe with Washington, DC in a high intensity long-
duration war, a well-coordinated tandem effort could undoubtedly pose major problems to the
long-time superpower. Such a scenario has rightly been seen as extremely remote, in part
because a major lesson of the Cold War seems to have been the fallacy of viewing the
communist bloc as monolithic, when in fact it was deeply fractured. Arguably, the tragic
Vietnam War would never have been fought if such fractures had been better understood in
Washington.

But this is a new world and evidence is everywhere apparent that Moscow and Beijing are
growing closer by the day. Some of the latest examples of their geostrategic coalescing are, for
example, the large Chinese delegation at Russia’s recent Arctic conference in Archangelsk,
China’s increasingly vocal support for Russia’s intervention in Syria, as well as the common
refrain in both Russia and China that both powers are strongly opposed to U.S. deployment of
the THAAD system into South Korea. I have previously mentioned the surprising candor with
which strategists in Beijing are debating the future of China’s long-time policy of disavowing
alliances. Once again, the vigor of this debate is on display in a 2017 article that appeared in
Chinese Foreign Policy under the title: Make an Alliance with China? Russian National
Interests and the Likelihood of a China-Russia Alliance.

The article offers a candid and relatively objective argument on this issue, which is of major
importance to the future of global politics, and so this edition of Dragon Eye will summarize the
contents of this fascinating paper. At the outset, the author suggests that the potential of a China-
Russia alliance could be a transformative strategy. It is, moreover, suggested that other
significant Beijing strategists, such as Zhang Wenmu, have favored this approach, since Zhang
apparently has said that “U.S. containment invites China-Russia counter-containment”. The
author of this article concludes that alliance could be “an effective tool” for coping with
“American pressure.” The issue of Russia’s immense natural resource base is also considered
quite relevant to Beijing’s future deliberations on the issue.

And yet much of this paper is devoted to “pouring cold water” on the proposal to align China
formally with Russia. A theme discussed widely in the paper is the possibility that the alliance
would not be viewed as a defensive reaction, but rather as an offensive and aggressive step. On
the one hand, the author identifies a classic “entrapment” argument against alliances, noting that
China could get pulled into unnecessary military conflicts. On the other hand, the author notes
that Russia hardly requires the assistance of Chinese military forces. Moreover, the point is made
repeatedly in the article that China’s conversion of economic power into military is a relatively
slow process resulting in a lag, even as its economic ascendance is more obvious. While not
stated explicitly, the author seems to imply that China’s continuing military weakness is an
obstacle to a China-Russia alliance, perhaps because China is not seen as a sufficiently capable
partner. However, the author nonetheless is surprisingly explicit in stating that China would be
the more senior partner in a hypothetical alliance, largely due to its economic heft Yet, Beijing
would also inevitably demand more help from Moscow within this alliance, given the already
evident strategic pressure placed on China by Washington’s “rebalance to the Asia-Pacific.”
Indeed, the author illustrates the inherent tensions of a China-Russia alliance, by suggesting that
Russia has actually benefited strategically from the American “rebalance” and that a China-
Russia alliance would create certain contradictions in Russian diplomacy, for example in
Moscow’s quite extensive dealings with Southeast Asian nations.

This analysis suggests that the Ukraine Crisis may not actually have altered world politics so
completely. After all, it is observed, Russia depended on its own military strength in the crisis
and, moreover, the crisis did not really remove pressure as applied against China. The author
states emphatically that Russia’s first priority will remain on improving the economy and this
will depend, above all, on improved relations with Europe and the United States. Applying a
somewhat similar logic, it is also observed that U.S.-China cooperation on many issues might not
persist if China took the step of actively pursuing an alliance with Russia. The author
additionally points out that both Russia and China have been able to attain local superiority in
areas of concern, suggesting that an alliance could be unnecessary. Finally, a point is made
regarding Russian cultural attitudes toward China. According to this article, polls find Chinese
favorably inclined toward Russia, but that Russians are not similarly favorably inclined toward
China.

Nevertheless, the analysis is not entirely pessimistic regarding the prospects of a China-Russia
alliance. Indeed, the author comes around to concluding: “One can predict that Russia will
become the most fundamental objective of China’s alliance-making”]. It is explained further that
“confronting a situation of pressure from the United States and its allies, China needs a country
that it can have close cooperation with that will form a strategic rear flank that can be depended
on and this country is Russia.” Successive years of enhanced military exercises are noted and the
2012 near simultaneous strategic moves against Japanese island claims are cited as positive
examples of the prospective alliance’s promise. Moreover, it is stated that increased shipments of
Russian oil and gas will improve China’s energy security. The author explicitly suggests
coordination between China and Russia on difficult diplomatic questions, such as the Iran and
North Korean issues. In an intriguing closing observation, the author predicts that “Russia’s
rising power will enable it to increase its position within an alliance. Ten years in the future, the
potential for a China-Russia alliance will increase” [

Still, this Chinese study, which exhibits an impressive objectivity, can hardly be called a full-
throated endorsement of such an alliance. Maintaining some of the most important aspects of
current Russia-China cooperation is in the realm of “political and moral support” [政治和道义支
持], and the author seems to recognize that these partners are quite satisfied with the already high
and steadily improving climate of cooperation. They do not see a great advantage to formalizing
the partnership, at least in the near term. The author maintains that “scrapping the old policy of
disavowing alliances should not be equated with choosing to make alliances” That nebulous
statement is likely meant to suggest that a long, gradual process is envisioned and Beijing will
wisely avoid any precipitous moves. It is noted that the Chinese government has already
embraced a policy of “building up strategic strong point countries” that, after all, has a similar
connotation to this discussion.

A final point to consider is the author’s conclusion that “U.S. strategic squeezing and
containment has not yet reached a level that it is imperative for the two countries to react by
forming an alliance]. To be sure, this statement carries the implied threat that if Washington does
seek to ramp up the “rebalance,” that one of Beijing’s possible responses will be to actively seek
a more formalized military partnership with Moscow.

Lyle J. Goldstein is associate professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval
War College in Newport, RI. The opinions expressed in this analysis are his own and do not
represent the official assessments of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. government.