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Wednesday, July 1, 2015

The Baltic Balance
How to Reduce the Chances of War in Europe
Christopher S. Chivvis

CHRISTOPHER S. CHIVVIS is Associate Director of the International Security and Defense

Policy Center at the RAND Corporation and Adjunct Professor at the Johns Hopkins School
of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

On a trip to Europe last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter made two important
announcements. First, on June 22, Carter revealed that the United States would contribute
special operations forces, weaponry, and surveillance aircraft to NATO’s Very High Readiness
Joint Task Force, a rapid response team of some 5,000 troops. The next day, in Tallinn,
Estonia, Carter announced that the United States would pre-position military equipment,
including 250 tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, across several central and eastern
European countries, among them Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania.

Both of these steps aim to strengthen Europe’s defenses and stabilize regional security,
which has been deeply shaken by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Although the United States could
do more still, increased U.S. military support should reduce the chances of war in Europe,
particularly in the Baltics, where NATO faces the challenges of a limited military presence,
adverse geography, and the risk of a fight with Russia.

To be sure, the chances of a Russian attack on the Baltics are low, and the costs of war with
NATO would be enormous for Moscow. But Moscow’s calculus and future trajectory are
highly uncertain, and its recent saber-rattling along NATO’s eastern flank—including military
exercises, bellicose language, and provocative air and naval maneuvers—has raised
concerns and heightened tensions throughout the region. Even Sweden, traditionally
non-aligned, has begun to seriously consider joining NATO. Given the Kremlin’s behavior,
NATO has no choice but to take the risk of conflict seriously.

BACKING UP EUROPE’S SECURITY

NATO currently has few forces in the Baltics, and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have very
limited militaries of their own. In the face of a Russian attack, they would be nearly
defenseless. Russian forces could likely capture the Baltic capitals within days of crossing
the Russian border, before NATO reinforcements could deploy in sufficient numbers to stop
them.

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