Climate/Disaster Risk Assessment:!

Fundamental Concepts!

1
 The Country’s Risk Profile

• Situated along the Eurasian and Pacific

plates.!
• 300 volcanoes, 22 as active, 27 are
potentially active with three volcanoes
constantly monitored recently. (Mt.
Mayon, Taal and Bulusan) !
• Extensive fault lines generate an
average of 20 quakes per day, mostly
minor ones.!
• Located in the typhoon belt, the
Philippines average of 18-22 typhoons
a year almost half of which is
destructive.

•Its 289 kms. of coastline is exposed to

possible storm surges, tsunami, and sea
level rise.

2
 The Country’s Risk Profile

• Flooding is a perennial problem due

to:
• unplanned and unregulated
development ventures (housing and
other industries e.g fish ponds,
mining)
• informal settlers living in
waterways and houses on river
banks;
• denuded forest due to illegal logging;
• eroded soil;
• poor waste management;
• problematic protocols in the release of waters in major dams
• the impacts of climate change is also causing unpredictable
behaviours of typhoons and its effects
• The effects of El Niño and La Niña can cause inundations,
landslides and drought which affects food security and energy

3
The Country’s Risk Profile

• The country’s vulnerability to natural hazards alone cost the

Philippine Government an average of Php 15 billion annually in
direct damages or more than 0.5% of the country’s GNP!
!
• Aside from these direct impacts, disasters have also derailed
social and economic development since funds are reallocated from
on-going programs to finance relief and reconstruction assistance.!
!
• Latest report from Maplecroft lists the Philippines as second
among 10 countries with the greatest share of their economic
activities exposed to natural hazards. (2012 Natural Hazard Risk
Atlas)!

4
The Country’s Risk Profile

• The Philippines’ Risk Profile for Natural Disaster is also reflected in

the 2009 Global Assessment Report prepared by the United Nations
International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR)!
!
The Country’s Risk Profile

30 70,000,000
Trends: Growing urbanization and
increasing exposure to disaster events in
22.5
the Philippines 52,500,000

15 35,000,000

7.5 17,500,000

0 0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Disasters events Urban Population

Source: CRED EM-DAT database and World Bank Open Data

Initiative ! Rapid rate of urbanization in the
(In 2012, N. Britton, ADB, Briefing on the TA 7812, Developing

!
Risk Financing Capability for the Philippines)! Philippines!
2005-2030 est. growth of 67% (+35m
people) to 76%
The Country’s Risk Profile

“Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) delivered destruction to the Philippines and a !

stark message that the world is underprepared for the violence of climate change.” !

12.2 million people affected; 13 billion dollars in damage and losses - Rehabilitation Action for
Yolanda

(The Guardian, 28 April 2014)

Risk is a function of Hazard (H), Exposure (E) and Vulnerability (V)

Likelihood of occurrence Consequence

Floods
Landslides
Storm surge
Severe wind Engineering
Tsunami Economic
Earthquake Social

People
Buildings
Source: Crichton 1999
Economic Activities
Infrastructure 8
Environment
Risk Assessment

1
(H)

2
(E and V)
3

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)

Risk Assessment

1
(H)

(E and V)

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)

Hazards

A hazard presents the potential for harm. It is the threat of a potentially

damaging physical event, phenomenon or human activity that may cause the
loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or
environmental degradation. A hazard can be geological, such as an
earthquake or volcanic eruption; it can be meteorological, such as flood and
rain-induced landslide. (UNISDR)!
!
A hazard event is described by its probability of occurence or the return
period, magnitude or intensity; specifically for flooding - depth, velocity,
frequency, discharge !
!
A hazard map depicts the spatial extent or area coverage of a hazard!
 Hazard Maps and their Sources
Hazard Map Source Scale
Hydro PAGASA, 1:50,000
meteorological except rain-induced
landslide
Rain-induced Landslide, Flooding MGB 1:10,000
Seismic and tectonic hazards Phivolcs 1:10,000
(liquefaction), rest is
1:50,000

Erosion and Flooding Map* BSWM; 1:10,000

MGB 1:50,000, 1:250,000
1:500,000**

* Note that BSWM produces Erosion and flooding maps for agricultural assessment purposes, not for
hazard mapping!
** Depends on availability
 Hazard characterization
• Hydrometeorological hazards
Hazard type Hazard Levels
Rainfall-induced landslide Low susceptibility
Moderate susceptibility
High susceptibility
Accumulation area
Flooded area
Flooding Areas prone to flooding
Storm surge Inundation of <=1m
Inundation of 1m to >4m surge
Inundation of >4m surge
 Hazard characterization
• Geologic Hazards
Hazard type Hazard Levels
Earthquake-induced landslide Areas not susceptible to earthquake-induced landslides

Areas with low susceptibility to earthquake-induced

landslides

Areas with moderate susceptibility to earthquake-

induced landslides

Areas with high susceptibility to earthquake-induced

landslides

Earthquake-induced landslide Deposition

deposition

Liquefaction Low susceptibility

Moderate susceptibility
High susceptibility
http://gdis.denr.gov.ph/
mgbviewer/
Accessed: 18 September 2013
http://gdis.denr.gov.ph/
mgbviewer/
Accessed: 18 September 2013
 Climate-Adjusted Flood
Hazard Maps

1,400
Greater than 5.00
2.01 to 5.00
1.01 to 2.00
0.51 to 1.00
0.20 to 0.50
1,050 Less than 0.20
Area affecred (in hectares)

700

350

0 Logos and
Balulang Bulua Consolacion Lapasan Nazareth Pualas
Barangay
Technical
Notes
3D Visualisation of the Flood Model derived using LIDAR data for Cagayan
De Oro City. 1 in 100 year event modelled, flood depth shown.

Informal Settlers living

in a dense shanty at
high risk of flooding

© Image from 1 in 100 year flood model produced by the DREAM-LIDAR component of Project
NOAH
(National Operational Assessment of Hazards). Modelled flood depth is shown overlain on the
Climate
Change
Projections
(Rainfall)
!
Digital
terrain,
surface and Flood
elevation Inundation
models from
Modelling
!
LIDAR shots
!
Satellite
images of
land cover of Watershed
watershed Rainfall
! Runoff
! Modelling
Tidal
patterns
!!
Ground
truthing
through river
measurements
and
watershed
surveys
Risk Assessment

(H)

2
(E and V)

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)

Exposure and Vulnerability (E, V)

!
Exposed elements or elements at risk refer to the factors, such as people, buildings,
infrastructure, the economy and natural environment, that are subject to the impact of specific
hazard.!
!
Expressed as area and/or monetary unit, for social, economic and environmental related
property. In terms of population exposure, it can be expressed as the number of affected
individuals or households.!
!
Vulnerability refers to the capacity of an element exposed during the impact of a hazard
event; refers to the characteristics of an element exposed to a hazard – person, road, building,
economy – that contributes to the capacity of the exposed element to resist, cope with, and
recover from the impact of natural hazard. !
!
Characteristics and circumstances of a community, system or asset that make it susceptible to
the damaging effects of a hazard. Vulnerability may arise from various physical, economic and
environmental factors such as poor design and construction of buildings, inadequate protection
of assets, lack of public information and awareness, limited official recognition of risks and
preparedness measures, and disregard for wise environmental management. (PDRRM Act)
Exposed Elements or Elements at Risk:
Examples
– Population (Social)
– Properties (houses, buildings, installations)
– Agriculture (crops, agro-industrial)
– Infrastructure
• Transportation:
– bridges, airports, seaports, bus terminals and stations : Point
coverage
– Roads, rails: Line coverage
• Utilities:
– Power – Local electric cooperative or NPC/Transco: point coverage
– Water (pumping stations, tanks) – local water district: point
coverage
– Communication - Cell sites; long-distance telephone centers
– Emergency Facilities
• Hospitals and Clinics
• Evacuation Centers and Shelters
• Protective Services
ClimEx.db App
of Project Climate Twin Phoenix

• Paperless survey/primary
data gathering
• Geo-coded/Geo-
referenced data
• Automatic report
generation
• Innovation for Cagayan de
Oro City- embedded
barangay maps
!
24
25
26
27
Source: UPICE
Source: UPICE
Exposure and vulnerability: Typhoon Sendong

Orchid Subdivision before the

Orchid Subdivision after the

Secondary Source: Paringit (2013)

Risk Assessment

(H)

(E and V)
3

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008) 32
Source: NEDA-
UNDP-EU
Mainstreaming
Guidelines
(2008)
33
Risk Assessment

(H)

(E and V)

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)

Risk Evaluation

• Risk evaluation deals with how risk is viewed

and the acceptable level of risk;!
!
• Risk perception and tolerance may vary
between individuals including the thresholds
they are willing to accept;!
!
• Risk evaluation can be used to prioritize areas
in need of immediate or urgent attention;

Training on the Supplemental Guidelines on Mainstreaming Climate Risks in

the Comprehensive Land Use Plan 35
May 5, 2014, Elizabeth Hotel, Baguiio City
 * As Low As Reasonably Practicable

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Mainstreaming Guidelines (2008)
 Indications of Acceptable
Levels of Risk
“ Zero death”!
!
Should not reach the level of a disaster or
declaration of a state of calamity, e.g., NDCC
criteria:!
!
- when at least 20 percent of dwelling units are
damaged !
- when at least 40 percent of the means of
livelihood are damaged!
!
! 37
 Possible perspectives on
acceptable risk
Risk that is no worse than the current
Currently tolerated
risk is acceptable

Improvements of
Any decrease in the risk is acceptable
current risk

Intolerable The probability of a specified loss

probabilistic threshold (below a threshold is acceptable)

Risk is deemed acceptable relative to

Benefit-cost
the cost of reducing the risk

Public acceptance Deliberative approaches determine

and political resolution acceptable risk

http://www.gns.cri.nz/Home/RBP/Risk-based-planning/A-toolbox/Setting-the-Scene/General-Natural-Hazard-Guidance/Acceptable-Risk
 How climate change increases 

disaster risks
• CC changes the magnitude and frequency of
extreme events: coping and response
mechanisms and economic planning for
disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no
longer suffice
• CC changes average climatic conditions and
climate variability, affecting underlying risk
factors, and it generates new threats: which a
country may have no experience in dealing
with
Source: 2008. Tearfund. Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk
Reduction
Overlap between DRR and CCA

2008. DFID. Convergence of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptat
Disaster Risk Management
x
Risk Management Options
Climate Change Adaptation Options

! !
Bear losses Change use

! !
Share losses Change location

! !
Modify the threat Research

! Behavioral
Prevent effects change
 DRR CCA

DRR Description Examples Adaptation Description Examples

Measures Measures
Risk Removing a risk • Prohibit Change use Where the threat of For agriculture,
Avoidance trigger by not development in   climate change makes - Change crops,
or locating in the high risk areas the continuation of an - promote crop
Elimination area of • Buyout and economic activity diversification
potential hazard relocate structures impossible or extremely - Alter planting
impact, not in highly prone risky, consideration can dates
purchasing or areas be given to changing the - Alter farming
making use of • Destroy and remove use. practices
vulnerable land structures in   - Return of
or building, or hazard-prone areas cropland to
denying a risk • Deny occupancy of pasture or forest
by not creating hazardous buildings or other uses may
an activity or • Protect cultural be found such as
simply refusing assets through recreation, or
to engage in zoning standards national parks
functions that  
could   Change A more extreme For coastal zones,
potentially be location response is to change - Relocation
affected by   the location of economic - Set back
risks activities. There is areas
considerable
speculation, for example
about relocating major
crops and farming
regions away from areas
of increased aridity and
heat to areas that are
currently cooler and
which may become more
attractive for some
crops in the future. 44
 DRR CCA

DRR Measures Description Examples Adaptation Description Examples

Measures

Risk Instituting Strengthen the ability Prevent A frequently used set of For coastal zones
Prevention measures so of structures to resist effects adaptation measures -Coastal defences/sea
that the hazard hazard involves steps to prevent walls
does not turn   the effects of climate -Surge barriers
into a disaster, Enforce strict zoning change and variability. -Upgrade drainage
or at the very and building standards For example, in systems, salt water
least reduce   agriculture intrusion barriers
the impact of   such measures include: -Sediment
the hazard changes in crop management
management practices, -Habitat protection
such as increased (e.g., wetlands,
irrigation water, mangroves)
additional fertiliser use, -Land use planning
and pest and disease  
control. For water
-Loss reduction
(leakage control,
conservation
plumbing)
-Capacity increase
(new
reservoirs,
desalination
facilities)
- Water permits
- Water pricing
 

45
 DRR CCA

DRR Measures Description Examples Adaptation Description Examples

Measures

Risk Reducing the Flood control works Modify the For some risks, it is  
reduction severity of a (dams, dikes, levees) threat possible to exercise a
or hazard impact   degree of control
mitigation through Build redundant over the environmental
! appropriate infrastructure systems threat itself. For climate
! actions prior to   change, the major
! a hazard event Diversify income modification possibility
! such as sources is to slow the rate of
! preparing the   climate change by
! people, Business continuity reducing GHGs and
! protecting the plans eventually by
! property and establishing GHG
! ensuring that concentrations in the
! all facilities or atmosphere (i.e.
! systems are mitigation).
! functional
! Reducing the Early warning systems      
Prepared-
ness severity of a  
hazard impact IEC
by improving  
capability to Contingency Plans
rescue, salvage
ad recover
through actions
completed
after a hazard
impact.

46
 DRR CCA

DRR Measures Description Examples Adaptation Description Examples

Measures

Risk Shifting the risk- Increasing capacity and Share losses This type of adaptation For agriculture,
Sharing or bearing robustness through response involves sharing - Crop
Risk responsibility to geographic, physical and the losses among a wider insurance
Transfer another party, operation separation of community.
oftentimes facilities and functions
involving the use (decentralizing services
of financial and or functions)
economic  
measures Comanagement/ building
particularly alliances
insurance  
systems to cover Insurance/ reinsurance
and pay for  
future damages Contingency financing
 
Safety nets
 
Informal community-
based financing
mechanisms
 
Calamity funds
 
Risk “do-nothing”  Take no action Bear losses All adaptation measures  
retention scenario where Treat physical losses as may be compared with the
or risks are fully expenses baseline response of
acceptance accepted and Prepare shelter plans for “doing nothing” except
arrangements displaced residents bearing or accepting the
are made to pay Allocate funds for clean- losses. In theory, bearing
for financial up loss occurs when those
losses related to affected have no capacity
the hazard to respond in any other
impact or to ways (for example in
fund potential extremely poor
losses with own communities) pror where
resources the costs of adaptation
measures are considered
to be high in relation to 47
the risk or the expected
damages
Risk Management Options

Secondary Source: Tio, J. (2013)

We cannot manage
uncertainties but we can
manage risks by!
tackling either the
likelihood of their
happening or the impact
… (M. Stepanyan, 2013)

Photo credit: Reuters/ Akram Shahid