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Research

THOR NORSTRÖM
report

The price elasticity ABSTRACT

for alcohol in Sweden T. Norström: The price elasticity for


alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

1984–2003 AIMS
The article addresses the following
research questions: (i) How strong
is the price elasticity for beer, wine
and spirits? (ii) How rapid is the effect
of a price change? (iii) Is the price
elasticity stable across time and space?
(iv) Does an increase in price give a
Introduction corresponding effect as a decrease?
The price of alcohol is considered to be one of METHODS & DATA
the most important instruments for regulating The sales data cover Systembolaget’s
overall consumption. This is because the de- retail sales of beer, wine and spirits
mand for alcohol is sensitive to price changes, for the period from January 1984 to
and the government has good control over March 2004. The price indexes are
prices through excise taxes. However, the pos- based on weighted baskets deflated
sibilities for a single country like Sweden to by a consumer price index. Most of the
pursue a sovereign price policy has decreased analyses were performed on quarterly
as a result of increasing economic integra- data. The data were analysed using the
tion. Particularly the combination of practi- Box-Jenkins technique for time series
cally abolished import quotas and low alcohol analysis.
prices in Denmark and Germany has created RESULTS
a troublesome situation. This has spurred a The price elasticities—as estimated
marked increase in the private import of al- from quarterly data—were statistically
cohol which undermines the legitimacy of significant for all beverages; -0.8 for
Swedish alcohol policy. If the Swedish gov- beer, -0.6 for wine and and -1 for
ernment chooses to adjust excise taxes to the spirits. Similar estimates were obtained
lower levels of other countries it is important from monthly data, suggesting a fast
to have a solid basis of knowledge for deter- consumer response to price changes.
mining the effects on consumption and harm. The elasticity for beer was weaker
The aim of this study is to analyse some is- during the period 1995–2004 (-0.6) than
sues that concern the relationship between the during the period 1984–1994 (-1.4), but
price and demand for alcohol. The next sec- it was no different in southern Sweden
tion presents these issues. than in the remainder of the country. An
A Swedish version of this article was published as: Nor- increase in the price of spirits seems
ström, T. (2005) Priselasticiteten för alkohol 1984–2003. In:
Gränslös utmaning – alkoholpolitik i ny tid. SOU 2005:25,
to affect sales as much as a price
409–429. decrease, that is, the price effect seems

NORDISK ALKOHOL- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT VOL. 22. 2005 . ENGLISH SUPPLEMENT 87


The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

to be symmetric. Finally, the


▀ What are the price elasticities for beer, wine and spirits?
results indicated that since Existing reviews concerning price elasticities for alcohol
1995 sales of beer and wine show a large range in the estimates (Ornstein 1980; Ornstein
increased more, and spirits & Levy 1983; Österberg 1995; Österberg 2001). For instance,
sales less, than predicted the estimated elasticities for beer vary between 0 and -3
from the development in (Österberg 1995). Also after the elimination of extreme val-
prices. ues, large differences remain. These may reflect actual vari-
CONCLUSIONS ations across time and space in sensitivity to price, but in
The study confirms previous addition differences in data quality and model specification
findings that the demand have probably much impact on the outcome. When estimat-
of alcoholic beverages is ing price elasticities one is in many countries confronted
responsive to changes in with two fundamental methodological problems that hardly
price; however, price is not apply to Sweden; one concerns the issue of exogenity, the
the sole factor that drives other relates to data quality.
the trends in sales. The Even though one should expect a relationship between
reduced elasticity for beer price and the demand for alcohol the direction of the link is
may be due to the marked not evident when a negative correlation is observed. A price
drop in beer prices. increase should decrease demand, but decreasing demand
may also induce sellers on the market to reduce their prices.
In a free market price cannot be expected to be exogenous
(i.e. independent of demand) which complicates estimations
of price elasticities. An advantage of the Swedish alcohol
market in this context is that prices are not adjusted accord-
ing to demand but indeed are exogenous. Another advantage
is that the data on sales as well as prices are detailed and of
high quality. In the US, for instance, price data are based on
direct observation in certain stores of the prices for selected
brands. Since these brands are not always representative, and
only account for a fraction of total sales, these price series
have considerable measurement errors that create problems
in statistical analyses of the relationship between prices and
sales (Young & Bielinska-Kwapisz 2003).
Swedish data thus provide a sound methodological basis
for estimating the price elasticity for alcohol.

▀ How quickly is the impact of a price change realized?


It is common to distinguish between short-term and long
term elasticity, where the latter is usually the stronger of the
two. A motorist who faces an increased petrol price when
getting into the station hardly refrains from filling up because
of that. On the other hand, it is likely that s/he will reduce
driving for pleasure, and, when it is time to replace the car

88 NORDISK ALKOHOL- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT VOL. 22. 2005 . ENGLISH SUPPLEMENT


The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

s/he might switch to one that requires less Data and methods
petrol. In this example there is a long-term Sales data refer to Systembolaget’s (The
adjustment to the increased price, so that State Alcohol Monopoly’s) retail sales of
it takes some time before the price change beer, wine and spirits expressed in litres
has reached its full effect. How quickly do of 100% alcohol. Price indexes are based
drinkers respond to a price change? Accord- on weighted baskets that are deflated by
ing to several studies the long-term elastic- the cost of living index. Changes in price
ity exceeds the short-term elasticity in the depend partly on actual price changes,
context of alcohol (Edwards et al. 1994). partly on changes in drinkers’ preferences
However, on the basis of these findings it towards cheaper or more expensive alco-
is difficult to infer how the time horizon hol. The latter source of change implies
looks, that is how long time it takes before that the price is not entirely exogenous;
the impact of a price change is realized. however, this drawback has to be weighed
against the drawbacks that a fixed basket
▀ Is the price elasticity stable across implies. Original data are on a monthly
time and space? basis with a regional division (counties)
The price elasticity for a product is usually and cover the period January 1984 – March
higher if there exists an alternative. Against 2004. For most of the analyses the data
this background we should expect that the have been aggregated into quarterly data
elasticity would become stronger when the for the whole country.
travellers’ allowances increased in January One of the complications that are often
1995, which made cheaper alcohol more encountered in statistical analyses of time
available. One should also expect geo- series data is that the series are trending,
graphical differences in the elasticity. The which is also the case here (see figures 1–
increased travellers’ allowances spurred a 3). This may give rise to spurious relation-
marked increase in the private import of ships since two series may evolve in the
beer, particularly in southern Sweden. A same (or opposite) direction without be-
study by Norström (2000) shows a clear ing causally related to each other. Another
geographical gradient in this effect: it de- complication is the structure of the error
creases proportionally to the square of the term; the error term includes among other
distance to Helsingborg (where it is strong- things causal factors that are not included
est). Can a corresponding pattern be found in the analysis. One of the prerequisites
in the sensitivity to price changes? in ordinary regression analysis is that the
error term does not have any structure. In
▀ Does a price increase yield a time series analysis this assumption is not
corresponding effect as a decrease in realistic since explanatory variables that
price? are left out can be expected to be auto-
Due to the addictive character of alcohol it correlated, that is to have a structure. In
is conceivable that the price effect is asym- the present case there is the additional
metrical in the sense that a reduction in complication of seasonal variation that is
price yields a stronger impact than a cor- found in monthly and quarterly data.
responding price increase.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

The complications that have been de- To illuminate the issue of the temporal
scribed here are taken into consideration stability of the price elasticity separate
in the technique for time series analy- analyses are performed for the periods
sis that has been developed by Box and 1985:1-1994:4 and 1995:1-2004:1. County
Jenkins (1976), often referred to as ARI- specific analyses elucidate the issue of re-
MA-modelling. By means of differencing gional differences in the price elasticity.
the series are made stationary. This means By comparing elasticity estimates based
that rather than analysing the relationship on monthly data with those based on quar-
between the raw series Yt and Xt we ana- terly data we get an indication of how fast
lyse the relationship between the chang- a price change is realized. The topic of a
es, that is between ∇Yt and ∇Xt, where possible asymmetry in the price effect is
∇Yt=Yt-Yt-1. The differencing reduces the handled through the inclusion of a dum-
risk for spurious relationships, even if it my variable with feasible coding.
is not eliminated. Another feature of ARI-
MA-modelling is that the error term struc- Results
ture is estimated and incorporated into the The sales of beer, wine and spirits depict
model. This increases the reliability of the fairly dissimilar trends during the study
model estimates. period (figures 1–3). Sales of beer and
A log-log model of the following specifi- wine were fairly stable until 1998, when
cation was used: a strongly increasing trend started. There
is a decreasing trend for spirits sales dur-
lnSt = elnPt + Nt ing the entire period. The prices have been
fairly stable for all beverages, with no
S is sales, P real price, and e denotes the marked trends. The largest price change is
elasticity coefficient that is to be estimated. noted for beer which decreased by about
N (noise) is the noise term that includes 15% in January 1997 due to a tax cut. The
other causal factors. The noise structure is correlations between the trends in prices
estimated in terms of autoregressive and and sales are generally negative (table 1),
moving average-parameters. These are of which though should be interpreted with
two kinds; regular: AR(n) and MA(n), re- great caution. However, the negative corre-
spectively (where n denotes the order of lations remain after seasonal differencing
the parameter), and seasonal: SAR(n), and (table 1, figures 4–6).
SMA(n), respectively. An important crite-
rion of model fit is that the residuals are
white noise. This is determined by means
of the Box-Ljung test.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
1984 -85 -86 -87 -88 -89 -90 -91 -92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 2000 -01 -02 -03 -04

Figure 1. Sales of beer (solid line) and real price of beer (broken line). Index 1984:1=1.

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
1984 -85 -86 -87 -88 -89 -90 -91 -92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 2000 -01 -02 -03 -04

Figure 2. Sales of wine (solid line) and real price of wine (broken line). Index 1984:1=1.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

.6

.4

.2
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
1984 -85 -86 -87 -88 -89 -90 -91 -92 -93 -94 -95 -96 -97 -98 -99 2000 -01 -02 -03 -04

Figure 3. Sales of spirits (solid line) and real price of spirits (broken line). Index 1984:1=1.

400 000

300 000
Beer sales, litres (seasonally differenced)

200 000

100 000

-100 000

-200 000

-300 000
-.3 -.2 -.1 -.0 .1 .2
Real price, beer (seasonally differenced)

Figure 4. Relationship between real price and sales of beer (litres 100%). Seasonally
differenced quarterly data 1984:1–2004:1.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

600 000

Wine sales, litres (seasonally differenced)


400 000

200 000

-200 000

-400 000
-.08 -.06 -.04 -.02 0.00 .02 .04 .06 .08
Real price, wine (seasonally differenced)

Figure 5. Relationship between real price and sales of wine (litres 100%). Seasonally
differenced quarterly data 1984:1–2004:1.

400 000
Spirits sales, litres (seasonally differenced)

200 000

-200 000

-400 000

-600 000
-.08 -.06 -.04 -.02 0.00 .02 .04 .06 .08 .10
Real price, spirits (seasonally differenced)

Figure 6. Relationship between real price and sales of spirits (litres 100%). Seasonally
differenced quarterly data 1984:1–2004:1.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Table 1. Correlation between sales and real where Assarsson’s estimate was somewhat
price of beer, wine and spirits. Based on stronger. It should be mentioned that As-
quarterly data for the period 1984:1–2004:1
sarsson used another techique for time
Raw data Seasonally
differenced series analysis, and that he also included
Beer -0.62 -0.18 additional explanatory variables.
Wine -0.12 -0.33 Models including cross-elasticitities
Sprits -0.51 -0.38 were estimated as well (not shown); e.g.,
the model for beer included the prices of
wine and spirits, in addition to the beer
▀ Estimation of the price elasticitities price. In neither of the models for beer,
Table 2 summarizes the results for the wine and spirits were the cross-elasticiti-
price elasticitities (complete model es- ties statistically significant.
timates are found in the Appendix). All It is of interest to note that the elastici-
estimates but one are negative and statisti- tities estimated on monthly data hardly
cally significant. It can be noted that the differ from those based on quarterly data;
elasticity for beer becomes markedly lower the differences are unsystematic and not
after 1994; during the first period it is -1.4, statistically significant. This would imply
compared to -0.6 during the period after that people respond quickly to a change in
1994. The elasticity for wine is at approxi- the alcohol price.
mately the same level during both of the The decreasing price elasticitity for beer
periods. The elasticity for spirits is close after 1994 is intriguing. It can hardly be due
to -1 for the early period; the fact that it is to limited variation in price, as in the case
insignificant after 1994 is probably due to of spirits. On the contrary, the variation in
the small variation in the price of spirits beer price was largely due to the price cut
during that period. of 15% in January 1997. This price cut has
In comparison it can be mentioned that rather the form of a natural experiment,
Assarsson (1991) for the period 1970–1988 and inspires a separate analysis. Thus the
estimated the elasticitities for beer, wine elasticitity for beer was estimated for a pe-
and spirits at -1.3, -0.9, and -0.9, respec- riod that was dominated by this price cut,
tively. The agreement between Assarsson’s that is, 1995:1–1998:4. Figure 7 indicates
estimates and those presented above for a clear and negative relationship between
the period prior to 1995 is thus fairly good; prices and sales (seasonally differenced);
the largest discrepancy is noted for wine, this is also verified by the model estima-

Table 2. Estimated price elasticities for various time periods

Quarterly data Quarterly data Quarterly data Monthly data


1984:1–1994:4 1995:1–2004:1 1984:1–2004:1 1984:1–2004:3

Beer -1.36*** -0.55* -0.79*** -0.90***


Wine -0.62 **
-0.81 (*)
-0.57 ** -0.63**
Sprits -1.16*** 0.34 -0.96*** -0.81***
***
p<0.001; ** p<0.01; * p<0.05; (*) p<0.10

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

300 000

Beer sales, litres (seasonally differenced)


200 000

100 000

-100 000
-.3 -.2 -.1 0.0 .1
Real price, beer (seasonally differenced)

Figure 7. Relationship between real price and sales of beer (litres 100%). Seasonally
differenced quarterly data 1995:1–1998:4.

tion (table 3). The estimated elasticitity decreases, and 0 if the price remains the
(-0.60) is on a par with the one found for same. The models were estimated for spir-
the entire period after 1994. its only, since this is the beverage where
the presence of this sort of asymmetry
▀ Is the price effect asymmetric? seems most probable. Table 4 shows that
Two models were estimated to elucidate the dummy variable did not have any sig-
the issue of whether a price increase and nificant effect, nor did it affect the esti-
a price decrease are equivalent in terms of mate of the price elasticity (the difference
absolute effects. The first model (Model 1) between the estimated price elasticity in
included the price series only as explana- Model 1 and Model 2 is not statistically
tory variable. The second model (Model significant).
2) included in addition to the price series
a dummy variable (denoted Change), that ▀ Geographical differences in price
(after ordinary differencing) took the val- elasticity
ue 1 if the price increases, -1 if the price To examine the issue of geographical dif-
ferences in price elasticity, county specific
Table 3. Price elasticity for beer estimated
on seasonally differenced data for the period analyses were performed for beer sales
1995:1–1998:4 during two periods of time: 1984–1994
Coeff SE and 1995–2004. Beer is the beverage for
which the availability of alternatives to
Price -0.60*** 0.12
Systembolaget ought to be largest, espe-
Q(4)+ 2.18; p> 0.70
cially during the latter period with its in-
***
p<0.001 creased travellers’ allowances. According
+
Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 4) to Norström’s study (2000) it is particu-

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Table 4. Estimated price elasticity for spirits. Change is a dummy variable (see text). Based on
regularly differenced quarterly data 1984:1 – 1994:4

Model 1 Model 2
Coeff SE Coeff SE

Price -0.79** 0.26 -0.90* 0.35


Change 0.004 0.01
AR1 -0.64 0.11 -0.64 0.11
SAR1 0.48 0.15 0.48 0.15
SAR2 0.45 0.16 0.45 0.16
+
Q(4) 3.35; p> 0.50 3.29; p> 0.51

**
p<0.01; * p<0.05
+
Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 4)

larly in southern Sweden that one can ob- a hint of a relationship in the expected di-
serve an increased private import of beer rection, but the spread around the regres-
from Denmark after the increased quotas sion line is considerable.
in January 1995. Thus, it is in this area we
should expect an excess sensitivity to the ▀ Projections of trends in consumption
beer price, particularly after 1994. Accord- How would the consumption of beer, wine
ing to the results, this is not the case; the and spirits have evolved during the last
average price elasticity for these counties ten years if it had been determined solely
is about the same as in the remainder of
the country during both of the time peri- Price elasticity
ods (table 5). Further analyses of the coun- -1.3
ty specific elasticity estimates for southern
Sweden show no relationship between the -1.4
price elasticity and the distance to Hels-
ingborg during the early period (figure 8).
-1.5
During the latter period (figure 9) there is

Table 5. Price elasticity for beer in southern -1.6


Sweden and in the rest of Sweden estimated
on data for two different time periods.
Average (standard deviation in parentheses) -1.7
of county specific estimates.
1984:1– 1995:1–
1994:4 2004:1 -1.8
0 100 200 300
-1.48 (0.13) -0.59 (0.14)
Southern Sweden* Kilometres
Rest of Sweden -1.38 (0.15) -0.56 (0.17)
Figure 8. Relationship between county
* Southern Sweden includes the municipality of Helsingborg, specific price elasticity for beer (estimated
the municipality of Malmö, and the following counties: Malmö-
hus, Halland, Kristianstad, Kronoberg, Göteborg and Bohus,
for the period 1984:1–1994:4) and distance
Blekinge, and Jönköping. to Helsingborg in kilometres.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Price elasticity Million litres


-.3 11

10
-.4
9

-.5
8

7
-.6

6
-.7
5

-.8 4
0 100 200 300 1995 2000 2003
Kilometres

Figure 9. Relationship between county Figure 10. Actual sales of beer in litres 100%
specific price elasticity for beer (estimated (z), and sales predicted on the basis of real
for the period 1995:1–2004:1) and distance price and price elasticity estimated on data
to Helsingborg in kilometers. for the period 1984:1–1994:4 ({).

by the trends in prices. To address this


question a series of projections were per-
formed. For instance, for beer the predict-
ed sales for the period after 1994 was cal- Million litres
18
culated on the basis of the price elasticity
for beer (as estimated for the early period, 17
that is 1984:1–1994:4) and the trend in beer 16
price. (By multiplying the predicted sales
15
series with a feasible constant, acutal and
predicted sales have the same value 1995.) 14
The projections were made separately for
13
wine, beer and spririts; these were further
summed into total alcohol sales. The re- 12
sults were aggregated into yearly data. The
11
outcome (figures 10–13) show that wine-
and beer sales increased markedly more 10
1995 2000 2003
than predicted from price; for spirits the
reverse is true. The outcome for total sales Figure 11. Actual sales of wine in litres
is mostly influenced by the results for beer 100% (z), and sales predicted on the basis
and wine, that is, the increase is stronger of real price and price elasticity estimated on
data for the period 1984:1–1994:4 ({).
than predicted.

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Million litres Million litres


11 36

34
10
32

9 30

28
8
26

7 24
1995 2000 2003 1995 2000 2003

Figure 12. Actual sales of spirits in litres Figur 13. Actual total sales of alcohol in
100% (z), and sales predicted on the basis litres 100% (z) and sales predicted on
of real price and price elasticity estimated on the basis of real price and price elasticity
data for the period 1984:1–1994:4 ({). esitmated on data for the period 1984:1–
1994:4 ({).

Concluding discussion
In this study the price elasticities for beer, cut for strong beer, there was an increase
wine and spirits in Sweden were estimat- in the tax on weaker beer (2.8–3.5 % by
ed on the basis of quarterly data for the pe- volume) which increased the price by
riod from 1984 to the first quarter of 2004. about 0.5 SEK per can (Trolldal 1998). This
For the period before 1995 the results are might have strengthened the effect of the
close to what has been found in previous tax cut on strong beer. The sensitivity to
research. The elasticity for beer was found the beer price has thus changed over time.
to be markedly weaker during the period It is also easy to believe that there would
after 1994 compared to the preceding pe- exist a geographic variation, so that the
riod (-0.6 and -1.4, respectively). The esti- demand would be more sensitive to price
mate implying a weaker elasticity accords in southern Sweden where it is closer to
better with estimates for other countries. cheaper alternatives in Denmark and Ger-
One interpretation of the reduced elastic- many. However, the results did not sup-
ity is that the marked price cut in Janu- port this hypothesis.
ary 1997 lowered the beer price to a level According to the results, the response
where variations in price have a weaker to a change in the price of alcohol is fast;
effect. It is further possible that beer to it made no difference if the time window
an increasing degree became regarded as was a month or a quarter. Further, there
an everyday commodity, the demand for did not seem to exist any asymmetry in the
which thus became less price sensitive. price effect; the impact of price increases
Another circumstance in this context is was as strong as the effect of decreases in
the following: simultaneously with the tax price. Finally, projections that were made

98 NORDISK ALKOHOL- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT V O L . 2 2. 2 0 0 5 . ENGLISH SUPPLEMENT


The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

on the basis of the results indicated that urday opening (Norström & Skog 2003) in-
after 1995 alcohol sales increased more creased sales, but it would be of interest to
than what was to be expected on the ba- see a study that analyses the total impact
sis of trends in prices. This illustrates the of all the factors that affect sales. As ap-
simple fact that the sales of alcohol are af- pears from figures 10–13, much remains to
fected by many other factors than price, be explained also after the price effect has
and that these factors have evolved in a been accounted for.
direction that has spurred sales. The in-
creased availability is probably crucial in
Thor Norström
this context: an increased number of out- Swedish Institute for Social Research
lets, longer sales hours (not least the Satur- Stockholm University
day opening), and increased self-service. S-106 91 Stockholm
Sweden
Studies have shown that the introduction
E-mail: totto@sofi.su.se
of self-service (Skog 2000) as well as Sat-

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The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Appendix

Table A1. Price elasticity for beer, wine and spirits estimated on seasonally and regularly
differenced quarterly data for the period 1984:1–2004:1

Beer Wine Sprits

Coeff SE Coeff SE Coeff SE


Price -0.79 0.18 -0.57 0.18 -0.96 0.18

AR1 -0.54 0.09 -0.50 0.10 -0.41 0.11

SAR1 -0.37 0.11 -0.85 0.10 -0.95 0.09

SAR2 -0.55 0.10 -0.68 0.09

Q(4)* 5.15; p>0.27 5.06; p>0.28 3.11; p>0.54


*Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 4)

Table A2. Price elasticity for beer, wine and spirits estimated on seasonally and regularly
differenced monthly data for the period 1984:1–2004:3

Beer Wine Sprits

Coeff SE Coeff SE Coeff SE

Price -0.90 0.20 -0.63 0.19 -0.81 0.14

AR1 -0.92 0.05 -0.15 0.05 -0.89 0.06

AR2 -0.59 0.05 0.26 0.05 -0.60 0.06

AR3 0.67 0.05

MA1 0.55 0.07

SAR1 -0.54 0.06 -0.64 0.06 -0.75 0.06

SAR2 -0.34 0.07 -0.47 0.06 -0.53 0.06

Q(12)* 28.21; p> 0.01 25.68; p> 0.01 22.27; p> 0.03
*Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 12)

Table A3. Price elasticity for beer, wine and spirits estimated on seasonally and regularly
differenced quarterly data for the period 1984:1–1994:4

Beer Wine Sprits


Coeff SE Coeff Se Coeff Se

Price -1.36 0.35 -0.62 0.22 -1.16 0.19

AR1 -0.63 0.13 -0.58 0.14 -0.52 0.14

SAR1 -0.27 0.19 -0.84 0.16 -0.97 0.12

SAR2 -0.67 0.16 -0.75 0.12

Q(4)* 5.02; p>0.29 2.81; p>0.59 0.55; p>0.96

*Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 4)

100 NORDISK ALKOHOL- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT V O L . 2 2. 2 0 0 5 . ENGLISH SUPPLEMENT


The price elasticity for alcohol in Sweden 1984–2003

Table A4. Price elasticity for beer, wine and spirits estimated on seasonally and regularly
differenced quarterly data for the period 1995:1–2004:1

Beer Wine Sprits


Coeff SE Coeff SE Coeff SE

Price -0.55 0.21 -0.81 0.46 0.34 0.99


AR1 -0.28 0.18 -0.29 0.18 -0.39 0.18
SAR1 -0.53 0.15 -0.56 0.16 -0.53 0.18
Q(4)* 1.24; p> 0.87 3.12; p> .53 8.17; p> 0.08
*Box-Ljung test for autocorrelated residuals (lag 4)

NORDISK ALKOHOL- & NARKOTIKATIDSKRIFT V O L . 22. 2005 . ENGLISH SUPPLEMENT 101

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