Applied Thermal Engineering 27 (2007) 688–689

www.elsevier.com/locate/apthermeng

Short communication

Comment on ‘‘Artificial neural network based modeling

of heated catalytic converter performance’’ by M. Ali Akcayol
and Can Cinar [Applied Thermal Engineering 25 (2005) 2341]
W. Sha *

Metals Research Group, School of Planning, Architecture and Civil Engineering, The Queen’s University of Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK

Received 16 August 2006; accepted 18 August 2006

Abstract

A paper has been published in Applied Thermal Engineering, using feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) in the modeling of
heated catalytic converter performance. The present paper attempts to discuss and comment on the paper. The amount of data used in
the paper are not enough to determine the number of fitting parameters in the network. Therefore, the model is not mathematically
sound or justified. The conclusion is that ANN modeling should be used with care and enough data.
 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Artificial neural network; Catalytic converter; Cold start

1. Introduction The training process involves minimising the sum of

A paper has recently been published in Applied Thermal
Engineering, using feed-forward artificial neural network
(ANN) in the modeling of heated catalytic converter per-
formance [1]. The present paper attempts to discuss and
comment on the paper.
2. Mathematical indeterminacy
A feature of the paper is that the artificial neural net-
work selected has a structure of 1-40-40-6 where the num-
ber of hidden neurons in each of the two hidden layers is
40. Extremely limited amount of data was used for training
the network. Though the exact amount of data available is
not declared, counting the data points in the figures in [1]
reveals that the number of data points is not higher than
40 for each of the six parameters modelled. The network
is so complicated that it is not mathematically logical and
determined.
*
Tel.: +44 28 90974017.
E-mail address: w.sha@qub.ac.uk
square error between actual and predicted outputs, using
the available training data, by continuously adjusting and
finally determining the weights connecting neurons in adja-
cent layers. The total number of weights to be determined
in the neural network is, for the two hidden layer
structure, (1 + 1) · 40 + (40 + 1) · 40 + (40 + 1) · 6 =
1966. This essentially accounts for all the connections
between neurons in the input, hidden and the output layers.
Though often regarded as a ‘‘black box’’ or incorrectly a
model without relationships being expressed using equa-
tions, a neural network actually has exact mathematical
relationships between the neuron connections. These rela-
tionships have a very simple weighted sum form but are
many because of the full connection between neurons in
adjacent layers. Such relationships can be given explicitly
using mathematical equations, as shown in a paper by
Okuyucu et al. [2]. Unfortunately, Ref. [2] itself suffers
from the same inadequacy criticised in this comment paper.
The number of neurons in the hidden layers increases
the amounts of connections and weights to be fitted. This
number cannot be increased without limit because one
may reach a situation where the number of the connections

1359-4311/$ - see front matter  2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2006.08.009
 W. Sha / Applied Thermal Engineering 27 (2007) 688–689
to be fitted is larger than the number of the data pairs avail-
able for training. Though the neural network can still be
trained, the case is mathematically undetermined. Mathe-
matically it is not possible to determine more fitting param-
eters than the available data points. For examples, two
data points are required as a minimum for linear regres-
sion, three data points for second order polynomial (para-
bolic) regression and so on. In practice, for reliable
regression, much more data than the minimum amounts
are used to increase statistical significance. For example,
if we use two points to determine a slope through linear
regression, the standard error of the slope calculated will
be infinite (infinitely large) [3,4]. A slope determined
through two points has no statistical significance.
The amount of data used in [1] are not enough to deter-
mine the number of fitting parameters in the network.
Therefore, the model is not mathematically sound or justi-
fied. Redundant hidden neurons are present in the model.
Alternatively, it may be said that not all the weights in
the model are independent.
Over fitting likely occurs when trying to determine more
fitting parameters than the number of data pairs. As a sim-
ple demonstration, the fitting curve based on a parabolic
equation will definitely pass both data points (thus ‘‘per-
fect’’ fitting) if there are only two data points available.
Such fitting will be undetermined or not unique, because
many, in fact an infinite number of parabolic curves pass
the two data points.
On a separate note, if there is only one input variable, as
the case for [1], a neural network would be no better than
689
the conventional, simple regression. Neural network in this
case does no more or better than the ‘‘Moving Average’’ or
similar Trendline functions, or even ‘‘Smoothed line’’, in
Microsoft Excel. Though a neural network could in princi-
ple filter out the odd, error data points, this is not demon-
strated in [1] and the advantage of NN over just plotting an
output/input X–Y curve is not demonstrated. Neural net-
work should be used to model complicated interactions
between a number of input parameters.
3. Concluding remarks
In conclusion, ANN modelling should be used with care
and enough data. Unfortunately such misuse of the neural
network technique is not uncommon [5,6], prompting the
need of this comment paper to raise the attention of the
research community.
References
[1] M. Ali Akcayol, Can Cinar, Applied Thermal Engineering 25 (2005)
2341.
[2] Hasan Okuyucu, Adem Kurt, Erol Arcaklioglu, Mater. Des., in press,
doi:10.1016/j.matdes.2005.06.003.
[3] W. Mendenhall, R.J. Beaver, Introduction to Probability and Statis-
tics, ninth ed., Wadsworth, Belmont, CA, 1994, pp. 447–450.
[4] D.L. Harnett, J.L. Murphy, Introductory Statistical Analysis, Addi-
son-Wesley, Reading, MA, 1975, pp. 416–425.
[5] W. Sha, Mater. Sci. Eng. A 372 (2004) 334.
[6] W. Sha, J. Mater. Process. Technol. 171 (2006) 283.