Discrete Probability Distribution

 Discrete Uniform Distribution

 Binomial Distribution
 Hypergeometric Distribution
 Negative Binomial Distribution
 Geometric Distribution
 Poisson Distribution
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Random Variables
 Discrete Probability Distributions
 Expected Value and Variance

.40

.30

.20

.10

0 1 2 3 4
 Basic Probability

 Coin Flips

unpredictable random
 Basic Probability

 Coin Flips

just as likely

Probability of an event

The probability of an event (getting heads or tails)

 Basic Probability

 Trial (experiment) is a process that has random

outcome
For example: rolling a dice, toss the coin, spinning a
spinner

 The outcome of a trial is what happens in that

particular trial

 Dealing with things that are random →

unpredictable → the more trials to do will get the
closer expected values (mean) of probabilities
 Random Variable

 Random Variable (peubah/variabel acak) : variabel

(sesuatu yang nilainya berubah-ubah) dimana
nilainya ditentukan oleh sebuah eksperimen acak
 Eksperimen Acak (random trial) contohnya:
melempar dadu, melempar koin dll yang hasilnya
tidak tentu / acak
 Variabel acak biasa dilambangkan dengan X atau Y
 Contoh variabel acak :
X = jumlah gambar yang akan muncul → dari 12 kali
lemparan koin (eksperimen acak)
X = jumlah angka 6 yang akan muncul → dari 5 kali
lemparan dadu (eksperimen acak)
 Random Variables

Question Random Variable x Type

Family x = Number of dependents Discrete
size reported on tax return
Distance from x = Distance in miles from Continuous
home to store home to the store site
Own dog x = 1 if own no pet; Discrete
or cat = 2 if own dog(s) only;
= 3 if own cat(s) only;
= 4 if own dog(s) and cat(s)
 Discrete Probability Distributions

The probability distribution for a random variable

describes how probabilities are distributed over
the values of the random variable.

We can describe a discrete probability distribution

with a table, graph, or equation.
 Discrete Probability Distribution

 Distribusi probabilitas diskrit adalah:

Sebuah tabel atau formula yang berisikan
probabilitas/peluang dari masing-masing
output/luaran variabel acak X tertentu

 Diskrit artinya suatu rentang nilai yang terhingga

(finite) ketika diukur
Misalnya: pelemparan koin (2 kemungkinan),
pelemparan dadu (6 kemungkinan) atau tarikan
kartu dari 1 set kartu remi (52 kemungkinan)
 Discrete Probability Distributions

The probability distribution is defined by a

probability function, denoted by f(x), which provides
the probability for each value of the random variable.

The required conditions for a discrete probability

function are:
f(x) > 0

f(x) = 1
 Discrete Probability Distribution

 Contoh:
Tiga buah koin dilempar bersamaan, variabel acak
‘X’ = jumlah sisi gambar yang muncul. Tuliskan
distribusi probabilitas diskritnya!

List kemungkinan yang muncul dari 3 koin yang dilempar bersamaan:

GGG → 3
GGA → 2
x 0 1 2 3
GAG → 2
P (X=x) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
GAA → 1 atau
AGG → 2 f (x)
AGA → 1
AAG → 1 jumlah peluang keseluruhan = 1
AAA → 0
 Discrete Probability Distribution

 Contoh:
Dua buah dadu dilempar bersamaan, variabel acak
‘X’ = jumlah angka dari dua dadu tersebut. Tuliskan
distribusi probabilitas diskritnya!
 Discrete Probability Distribution

x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
f(x) 1/36 2/36 3/36 4/36 5/36 6/36 5/36 4/36 3/36 2/36 1/36
 Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

The discrete uniform probability distribution is a

statistical distribution where the probability of
outcomes is equally likely and with finite values
Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

The discrete uniform probability distribution is the

simplest example of a discrete probability
distribution given by a formula.

The discrete uniform probability function is

f(x) = 1/n the values of the

random variable
are equally likely
where:
n = the number of values the random
variable may assume
 Expected Value and Variance

The expected value, or mean, of a random variable

is a measure of its central location.
𝑘
𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖
𝜇=
𝑘

The variance summarizes the variability in the

values of a random variable.
𝑘 2
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖−𝜇) 1
Var(x) = = 𝑘2 − 1
𝑘 12

The standard deviation, , is defined as the positive

square root of the variance.
 Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

 A good example of a discrete uniform distribution

would be the possible outcomes of rolling a 6-sided
die
• The possible values would be 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6
• Each of the six numbers has an equal chance of appearing
• Each time the 6-sided die is thrown, each side has a chance
of 1/6
 Discrete Uniform Probability Distribution

 Mean = …….

 Variance = ……..
 Binomial Distribution

 Four characteristics of a Binomial Experiment

1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n
identical trials.

2. Two outcomes, success and failure, are possible

on each trial.

3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, does

not change from trial to trial.
stationarity
4. The trials are independent. assumption
 Binomial Distribution

Our interest is in the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.

We let x denote the number of successes

occurring in the n trials.
 Binomial Distribution

 Binomial Probability Function

𝑛
f(x) = 𝑥
𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥

where:
f(x) = the probability of x successes in n trials
n = the number of trials
p = the probability of success on any one trial (p value doesn’t
change at any trial
q = 1-p
 Binomial Distribution

 Example: Evans Electronics

Evans Electronics is concerned about a low retention rate
for employees. In recent years, management has seen a
turnover of 10% of the hourly employees annually. Thus, for
any hourly employee chosen at random, management estimates
a probability of 0.1 that the person will not be with the company
next year.
 Binomial Distribution

 Using the Binomial Probability Function

Choosing 3 hourly employees at random, what is
the probability that 1 of them will leave the company
this year?

Let: p = .10, n = 3, x = 1
n!
f ( x)  p x (1  p) (n  x )
x !( n  x )!
3!
f (1)  (0.1)1 (0.9)2  3(.1)(.81)  .243
1!(3  1)!
 Binomial Distribution

 Expected Value

E(x) =  = np

 Variance
Var(x) =  2 = np(1  p)

 Standard Deviation

  np(1  p)
 Binomial Distribution

 Expected Value / Mean

E(x) =  = 3(.1) = .3 employees out of 3

 Variance

Var(x) =  2 = 3(.1)(.9) = .27

 Standard Deviation

  3(.1)(.9)  .52 employees

 Exercises

1. A multiple choice test contains 20 questions with answer choices A, B,

C and D. Only one answer choice to each question represents a correct
answer. Find the probability that a student will answer exactly 6
questions correct if he makes random guesses on all 20 questions.

2. 25 % of all students enrolled in high school XYZ taking Algebra. 30

students are chosen at random.
a) Find the probability that exactly 7 students out of the 30 chosen are
taking Algebra.
b) What is the probability fewer than 5 out of 30 chosen are taking
Algebra?
c) Calculate the mean and standard deviation of this binomial
distribution.
 Important to know for Binomial Distribution

 n = number of trials
 x = successes events in n trials
 p = probability of success
 q = probability of failed/failure
1. Diket:
n = 20 ; x = 6 ; p = ¼ = 0,25 ; q = ¾ = 0,75

𝑛
P (6) = 𝑥
𝑝 𝑥 𝑞𝑛−𝑥
20
= 6
x 0,256 x 0,7514
= 6 !(14!)
20!
x 0,000244 x 0,01782
20 𝑥 19 𝑥 18 𝑥 17 𝑥 16 𝑥 15 𝑥 14!
= x 0,000244 x 0,01782
6 𝑥 5 𝑥 4 𝑥 3 𝑥 2 𝑥 1 (14!)
= 38760 x 0,000244 x 0,01782
= 0,1685

Probability student will answer exactly 6 questions corrects =

16,85%
c. µ = n x p
= 30 x 0.25
= 7,5

= 𝑛𝑝 𝑥 𝑞

= 30 𝑥 0,25 𝑥 0,75

= 5,625
= 2,3717