Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
PARLIAMENT OF UGANDA
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Office of the Clerk to Parliament
Parliament Building
Kampala
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NOVEMBER 2O2O flr
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1. INTRODUCTION
The Committee on National Economy considered the Proposal by Government to borrow up
to UGX 4,307.3 billion through Domestic Borrowing to finance the Budget Deficit for the FY
2020121.
The Proposal was presented to this House by the Hon. Minister of Finance, Planning and
Economic Development on 21* October,2020 and accordingly referred to the Committee on
National Economy for consideration in line with Rule t75 (2) (b) of the Parliamentary Rules
of Procedure.
The Committee considered and scrutinized the proposal and now begs to report.
2. METHODOLOGY
2.1. Meetings
The Committee held meetings with;
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through Domestic Borrowing to finance the Budget Deficit for the FY 2020121;
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iii. Report of the Budget Committee on the Supplementary Expenditure Schedule
No.3 and Addendum to Schedule 3 for FY 2019120;
viii. The Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development Brief on UDBL
Loans in Parliament; and
ix. The Letter from National Planning Authority recommending approval of the
loan (1N November, 2020),
3.0 BACKGROUND
During the staft of the FY 20L9120, the economy was projected to have an economic
growth rate of 6.50/o and then grow by 6.30/o in FY 2020121. However, given the outbreak
of the COVID-19 pandemic, that affected both the global and regional economy, the floods
and locust invasion, Uganda's economy is now reported to have grown by 2.9o/o in FY
2019120. This slower growth in the economy during FY 20L9120 was experienced in all the
sectors of the economy as; the Agriculture Sector grew by 4.Bo/o down from 5.4o/o in FY
W 20t8lt9, growth in the Industry sector was 2.2o/o down from 10.1olo in the FY 20lBlL9,
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Sector grew by 2.
the down from 5.7o/o.
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ii. The complete drying up of tourism revenues in the last quafter of FY 2019120;
iii. Cuftailed workers' remittances in the last half of FY 20t9120 as they lost jobs, which
affected household incomes;
VI Overall fiscal deficit widening to 7.2 percent of GDP and 10.7 percent of GDP in FY
20t9120 and FY 202012L respectively, due to revenue shortfalls and additional
spending to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on vulnerable households and
businesses;
20tBl19;
viii Exchange rate depreciation; the Uganda shilling depreciated against the US dollar by
0.2 percent on a year to year basis from UGX 3,728.99 to UGX 3,737.94 at lune
2020. In addition, worsening of external position, due to capital outflows, adverse
effects on the flow of international trade, tourism, workers' remittances, foreign
direct investment and loan disbursement continue to exacerbate exchange rate
depreciation pressures; and
ix. An increase in the number of vulnerable people as a result of the lockdown, leading
to reduced economic activities
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The economy is projected to grow by 4.5o/o in FY 202012L. The downward revision in
economic Arowth for FY 202012t is due to expected slower growth rates during the year as
the effects of the COVID-l9 pandemic persist through the second quarter of FY 2020121.
Similarly, Parliament approved UGX 45,493.7 billion for expenditure during FY 2020121 and
the budget was to be financed through domestic revenues amounting to UGX 33,07L.7
billion and externa! resources amounting to UGX L2,422 billion. However, following the
performance of the economy in 2019120, that was associated with a lower growth rate
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and slower growth in revenues compared to the previous financial year, and the prolonged
effect of the COVID-19 pandemic into the second quarter of FY 202012t, the resource
projections were revised downwards.
The new resource projections reflect a growth rate of 20o/o from 27o/o in the approved
budget mostly due to a projected decline in domestic resources from a groMh rate of 19olo
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o/w Tax Revenue 15,9L2.2 20,2t8.7 3,896.6 18,063.0 (2,L55.7) 19o/o t4o/o
Domestic Financing
(Borrowing +BOU
capitalization ) 3,878.1 3,560.3 1,672.1 3,560.3 47o/o -Bo/o
Total External
Resource 8,167.8 12.422.0 2.835.7 t2.422.0 23o/o 52o/o
During the first quafterof FY 2020121, the resource performed at 23o/o as domestic
revenues realized L9o/o of the approved budget revenues while external resources
performed at 23o/o on account of budget support loans that performed at 53olo of the
a proved budget for the FY 2020121 as obserued in Table 7. @
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The Committee noted that the performance of Quafter 1 domestic revenues had a surplus
due to a downward revision of the revenue targets for the financial year, the projected
revenue shortfalls based on the downward revision being one of the reasons for the
borrowing. However, despite the surplus, the URA Quarter 1 performance was below the
historical average performance for the past five years, where 22o/o of the approved budget
revenues were realized during the first quarter.
The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development proposes to finance the
deficit as follows: through budget cuts/efficiency gains amounting to UGX L,42L billion; and
borrowing externally and from the domestic market to a tune of UGX 6,536.6 billion.
The domestic borrowing is meant to address the FY 2020121projected budget shortfall and
additional funding pressures identified in Supplementary Schedule 1 and 2. The specific
objectives of these borrowings are:
2020121; and
. To provide additional fina ncing to government for additional domestic debt seruicing
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5.0 FINANCING AND UTILISATION OF RESOURCES
Table 2: Summary of Funding Pressures and Projected Budget Shortfall
FY 2O2O|2L
Revenue
1 Projected shortfall on revised budget (2,507.0)
2 Budget cuts and efficiency gains L,42L,0
The domestic borrowing amounting to UGX 4,307.3 billion and IMF loan amounting to USD
600 million (UGX 2,229.3 billion) are to provide a total UGX 6,536.6 billion as financing
meant to address the FY 202012t projected budget shortfal! and additional funding
pressures identified in Supplementary Schedule 1 and 2 and Domestic Debt Seruicing to a
tune of UGX 6,611.9 billion summarized in Table 2.
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Domestic borrowing will be done through issuance of Treasury Bills and Treasury Bonds.
The Treasury Bills are shofter debt instruments with tenures of 91-day, 182-day and 364-
day, while Treasury Bonds are long term debt instruments with maturity of more than a
year. The tenure for long term instruments in Uganda ranges between 2 to 15 years,
however the maturity of these instruments can extend to more than 15 years, with
increased development of the domestic market.
This implies that when most of the debt is secured through long term debt instruments,
most of the domestic debt acquired shall mature between 2 years and 15 years or more
depending on the development of the domestic market.
It should be noted that issuance of short term debt increases the liquidity pressures on the
budget in the short term, as well as the default risk as the debt must be repaid within a
short timeframe. However, the long term domestic debt is associated with higher yield rates
and less immediate liquidity pressures in the short term, although they are at a higher cost
to the budget in the long term.
7.O IMPLEMENTATION
Once approved, the funds obtained from the domestic market will be remitted to the
Consolidated Fund. The Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development will be
responsible for ensuring that funds are properly utilized to finance the FY 2020121 budget
as approved by Parliament, including the approved supplementary and accountability
thereof provided to Parliament in line with the provisions of the Public Finance Management
Act, 2015 as amended.
BUDGETARY IM PLICATIONS
/Th" approval of the two Supplementary Schedules for FY 2O2O]2L, the ratio of overall
deficit to GDP increased by 9o/o from 9.Bolo to 10.7o/o upon adding the URA quafter 1 surplus
revenues, moving fufther away from 7.2 realized in FY 20L9120 and 7.Bo/o envisaged in
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the NDP III.
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With approval of the domestic borrowing to a tune of UGX 4,307.3 billion, the domestic
financing as a share of GDP will increase to 5.2o/o from 2.4o/o in the approved budget for FY
202012t. Consequently, the overall deficit financing as a share of GDP will increase to
t1.7o/o taking into consideration the quarter 1 surplus of URA revenues and the IMF loan
Other spending
(Domestic arrears) 0.3o/o l.2o/o l.4o/o l2o/o
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With regard to debt seruice, domestic interest payments as a share of GDP will increase by
0.4o/o (ranging between UGX 540 billion - UGX 700 billion annually depending on the market
interest rates), to a total of 2.4o/o in FY 202012L from 2.0o/o in the approved budget and
move further away from the Medium Term Debt Strategy for FY 2020121 operational target
for FY 2020121 range of between 1.5% to t.7o/o. The share of domestic interest payments
to domestic revenue in FY 202012t will move further away from the target by 2.8o/o points
from 14.8% projected in the budget to L7,60/o, implying more resources shall be spent on
servicing domestic debt than planned.
In addition, the share of domestic borrowing to GDP will increase to about 4olo, moving
further away from the NDP III target of not more than 1olo desired during the plan
implementation period, and this will crowd out the private sector as growth in annual
private sector credit is projected to decline to 3olo in FY 2020121from B.9olo in FY 2019120
due to the total domestic borrowing that will now be revised to UGX 7,867.6 billion with
approval of this request.
In addition, domestic borrowing will increase the domestic interest payments to domestic
revenue by 2.Bo/o points to in the revised budget for FY 2020121,
t7.6o/o from 14.8o/o
moving it fufther away from the 12.5o/o benchmark in the Public Debt Management
Framework, 2018 (PDMF, 2018). In addition, the stock of domestic debt to GDP will exceed
the 15olo benchmark for domestic debt sustainability set in the PDMF, 2018 as observed in
d although it shall still be below the 20olo threshold set in the Chafter of Fiscal
pon a East African Co unity ( Monetary Union Protocol.
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Table 5: Domestic Debt Sustainability Indicators
PDMF Indicator
PDMF
Benchmark
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2O!912O
2O2Ol21
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Therefore, although Uganda's debt remains.sustainable over the medium term, there are
concerns of sustainability of the domestic debt, especially the risk of crowding out the
private sector through a slower growth in private sector credit in the short term, and
increased cost of seruicing debt at the expense of seruice delivery given by the higher rates
of domestic interest rates when compared to foreign interest rates.
With the additional borrowing of UGX 4,307.3 billion, the domestic borrowing will exceed
lo/o of GDP to 4o/o, wd1 higher than desired in the third National Development Plan, whose
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domestic financing strategy was to limit domestic borrowing to less than 1olo of GDP to
prevent ng oqt of private sector. 1f.:
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The Committee further noted that expenditure on external interest payments and
amortization are less than half of those spent on domestic borrowing due to the higher
interest rates and shorter maturity periods associated with domestic borrowing.
The Committee noted that Government had made budget cuts on the approved budget for
FY 2020121 as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic whereby some activities
like travel abroad, which had been provided for, were now expected not to take effect. As
such, efficiency gains worth UGX t,42t billion were realized. This would therefore offset the
approved budget from UGX 45,493.7 billion to UGX 44,072.7 billion.
In light of the above, the Committee is of the view that the projected revenue shortfall of
UGX 2,507 billion is covered by both the World Bank loan and the budget cuts. The
financing pressures to be considered should therefore be those arising from the approved
Supplementary Expenditure for FY 2020121 as well as the domestic debt servicing needs,
ch joi amoLr to UGX 5,487.8 billion (Table 6). c,
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Table 6: Summary of Funding Pressures and Financing - FY 2O2Ol2l
Amount in UGX
s/N Category Billions
Expenditure
1 Approved Budqet 45,493.7
Revenue
4 Approved Resource 45,493,7
9 Surplus on the Revised Budget with efficiency gains and WB loan(8-7) 38.1
Fundinq Pressures
10 Supplementary 1 1,363.1
11 Supplementary 2 2,062,8
L2 Domestic Debt seruicinq 2,100,0
Proposed Borrowinq
t4 IM F-Extended Cred it Facil ity(USD 600 mil lion ) 2,229.3
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The Committee further noted that borrowing UGX 4,307.3 billion from the domestic market
will slow down private sector credit growth from B.9olo registered in FY 2019120 to 3% in FY
202012t.
The Committee recommends that the World Bank loan resources that were
disbursed at the beginning of the Financial Year should be included in the
resource envelope of the current Financial Year, which will eliminate the
projected revenue shoftfall that is a partial basis for the borrowing.
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growtb the domestic arrears to productive sectors in the economy should
be cleared within a period of three years.
The Committee observed that a number of tax exemptions have been provided and so are
isolated cases that distort incentives to production and business. The tax exemptions in
some cases have made imports become cheaper than the locally produced goods, a case in
point being rice impofts from Tanzania, where farmers are getting discouraged as imported
rice associated with a tax exemption is making their rice very expensive to
ndans a iscouraging investment in the same. 6;,
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The Committee recommends that Government reviews tax exemptions with
a view of boosting local production and increasing tax revenues through a
broadened tax base,
The Committee obserued that part of the borrowing is to meet domestic debt service
obligations to a tune of UGX 2,100 billion. The Committee was concerned about the
sustainability of borrowing to meet debt obligations given the fact that the approved budget
for FY 2020121 had UGX 7,486 Billion approved for domestic refinancing, and UGX 3023
billion for domestic interest payments. With this approval, the total domestic debt servicing
budget will increase to UGX 12,586 billion in FY 202012t.
To this end, tax administration should broaden the tax base to incorporate
the informal sector that now accounts for the largest part of the economy
based on the GDP numbers (55o/o).
fn addition, the tax base can be increased through measures that target
organizing supply chains into a market-driven approach and cooperatives,
which will support GDP growth and hence widen the tax base.
11.0 CONCLUSTON
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Hon. Lokeris Samson
Ntoroko County
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16. Hon. Wamakuyu Mudimi Ignatius Elgon County
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